Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#202
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#204
Pace65.6#263
Improvement+0.8#86

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#128
First Shot+0.9#144
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#141
Layup/Dunks+3.6#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#293
Freethrows-0.2#189
Improvement+0.3#136

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#264
First Shot-3.3#286
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#160
Layups/Dunks+3.9#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.1#362
Freethrows-0.5#227
Improvement+0.5#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.5% 66.2% 52.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.8% 97.4%
Conference Champion 44.8% 53.1% 23.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.1% 6.7% 11.6%
First Round58.8% 63.2% 47.5%
Second Round2.0% 2.3% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 71.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 416 - 417 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 14   @ Baylor L 70-87 5%     0 - 1 +0.5 +4.2 -4.0
  Nov 14, 2022 3   @ UCLA L 56-86 3%     0 - 2 -9.2 +0.9 -13.3
  Nov 17, 2022 351   @ Monmouth W 64-59 79%     1 - 2 -5.0 -12.2 +7.1
  Nov 19, 2022 342   Alabama A&M W 89-83 82%     2 - 2 -5.5 +6.3 -12.3
  Nov 29, 2022 2   @ Houston L 52-100 2%     2 - 3 -26.0 -4.8 -25.3
  Dec 03, 2022 177   @ Old Dominion L 62-68 34%     2 - 4 -3.5 +0.6 -5.0
  Dec 10, 2022 304   @ William & Mary W 67-53 63%     3 - 4 +8.9 -2.6 +12.9
  Dec 14, 2022 238   Bowling Green W 81-75 68%     4 - 4 -0.6 +3.7 -4.2
  Dec 17, 2022 344   Hampton W 78-66 83%     5 - 4 +0.3 -4.7 +4.6
  Dec 18, 2022 276   N.C. A&T W 70-66 66%     6 - 4 -1.9 +2.4 -3.8
  Dec 21, 2022 62   @ Nevada L 66-78 12%     6 - 5 -0.8 +5.3 -7.3
  Jan 07, 2023 305   Maryland Eastern Shore W 57-46 80%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +0.5 -12.3 +13.8
  Jan 09, 2023 356   @ Delaware St. W 78-65 84%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +0.5 +6.5 -4.7
  Jan 14, 2023 277   Howard L 84-86 75%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -10.7 +6.2 -16.9
  Jan 21, 2023 343   @ Coppin St. W 96-65 75%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +22.1 +13.6 +7.3
  Jan 23, 2023 291   @ Morgan St. L 71-77 60%     9 - 7 3 - 2 -10.2 -1.5 -8.7
  Jan 28, 2023 354   South Carolina St. W 82-68 91%     10 - 7 4 - 2 -2.6 +1.3 -3.5
  Jan 30, 2023 255   NC Central W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 04, 2023 344   Hampton W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 11, 2023 305   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 13, 2023 356   Delaware St. W 79-63 94%    
  Feb 18, 2023 291   Morgan St. W 76-68 78%    
  Feb 20, 2023 343   Coppin St. W 84-71 89%    
  Feb 25, 2023 354   @ South Carolina St. W 82-72 80%    
  Feb 27, 2023 255   @ NC Central W 70-69 50%    
  Mar 02, 2023 277   @ Howard W 74-72 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 10 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 14.3 20.6 8.4 44.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 9.9 13.8 2.6 26.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.8 10.0 1.6 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.6 1.5 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.4 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.8 11.3 22.9 29.6 23.2 8.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 8.4    8.1 0.4
11-3 88.9% 20.6    13.9 6.3 0.4
10-4 48.3% 14.3    3.0 7.3 3.6 0.4
9-5 6.5% 1.5    0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 44.8% 44.8 25.0 14.3 4.5 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 8.4% 80.4% 80.4% 14.4 0.0 0.5 3.4 2.6 0.2 1.7
11-3 23.2% 74.1% 74.1% 15.0 0.1 3.4 10.2 3.5 6.0
10-4 29.6% 65.0% 65.0% 15.4 0.0 1.4 9.7 8.2 10.4
9-5 22.9% 55.0% 55.0% 15.6 0.3 4.1 8.1 10.3
8-6 11.3% 45.5% 45.5% 15.8 0.0 1.0 4.1 6.1
7-7 3.8% 35.5% 35.5% 15.9 0.2 1.2 2.4
6-8 0.8% 29.1% 29.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.6
5-9 0.1% 17.1% 17.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 62.5% 62.5% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.6 8.5 27.7 25.6 37.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.3% 81.6% 14.3 0.1 7.4 44.8 28.7 0.6