Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#232
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#295
Pace66.0#277
Improvement-1.0#247

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#316
First Shot-4.3#295
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#257
Layup/Dunks-4.4#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#293
Freethrows-3.4#338
Improvement-0.4#214

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#122
First Shot+3.5#67
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#309
Layups/Dunks+1.1#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#80
Freethrows-1.3#268
Improvement-0.6#239
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.4% 50.0% 43.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 76.7% 85.4% 63.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.5% 97.2%
Conference Champion 64.8% 69.0% 58.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four33.2% 31.8% 35.3%
First Round32.3% 35.8% 27.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Neutral) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 415 - 616 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 121 William & Mary L 78-81 35%     0 - 1 -3.0 -1.6 -1.1
  Tue, Nov 11 215 @Old Dominion L 57-60 36%     0 - 2 -3.4 -6.4 +2.6
  Fri, Nov 14 139 @Towson L 41-51 21%     0 - 3 -5.5 -22.4 +15.1
  Fri, Nov 21 230 Hampton W 62-60 61%     1 - 3 -5.0 -5.0 +0.3
  Sun, Nov 23 91 @Wyoming L 67-75 12%     1 - 4 +0.8 +1.0 -0.5
  Sat, Nov 29 3 @Arizona L 61-98 1%     1 - 5 -11.5 -3.9 -4.9
  Sat, Dec 6 183 @James Madison L 67-68 30%     1 - 6 +0.4 -2.3 +2.7
  Wed, Dec 10 32 @Baylor L 67-97 4%     1 - 7 -13.7 -6.4 -4.9
  Thu, Dec 18 285 Grambling St. W 66-63 60%    
  Fri, Dec 19 315 Jackson St. W 69-64 69%    
  Sun, Dec 21 217 @UTEP L 62-66 37%    
  Sun, Dec 28 325 @Louisiana W 64-61 60%    
  Sat, Jan 3 350 @NC Central W 68-63 69%    
  Sat, Jan 10 349 @Delaware St. W 68-63 67%    
  Mon, Jan 12 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-57 84%    
  Sat, Jan 17 359 @South Carolina St. W 72-64 76%    
  Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 77-59 95%    
  Mon, Jan 26 358 Morgan St. W 78-64 89%    
  Sat, Jan 31 300 @Howard W 68-67 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 350 NC Central W 71-60 84%    
  Sat, Feb 14 349 Delaware St. W 71-60 84%    
  Mon, Feb 16 345 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 65-60 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 359 South Carolina St. W 75-61 89%    
  Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 74-62 84%    
  Mon, Mar 2 358 @Morgan St. W 75-67 76%    
  Thu, Mar 5 300 Howard W 71-64 72%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.6 7.2 15.9 19.7 14.8 5.6 64.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 6.1 8.1 4.5 0.9 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.1 0.8 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.6 0.2 3.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 6.4 11.0 16.1 20.4 20.6 14.8 5.6 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 5.6    5.6
13-1 100.0% 14.8    14.6 0.3
12-2 95.5% 19.7    17.3 2.4 0.0
11-3 78.0% 15.9    10.6 5.0 0.3
10-4 44.7% 7.2    2.6 3.5 1.0 0.1
9-5 14.3% 1.6    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 64.8% 64.8 50.8 11.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 5.6% 72.4% 72.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.5
13-1 14.8% 66.4% 66.4% 15.7 0.0 0.4 2.4 7.1 5.0
12-2 20.6% 56.6% 56.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8 10.9 9.0
11-3 20.4% 48.0% 48.0% 16.0 0.1 9.6 10.6
10-4 16.1% 39.3% 39.3% 16.0 0.1 6.3 9.8
9-5 11.0% 30.6% 30.6% 16.0 3.4 7.6
8-6 6.4% 23.3% 23.3% 16.0 1.5 4.9
7-7 3.2% 18.3% 18.3% 16.0 0.6 2.6
6-8 1.4% 17.0% 17.0% 16.0 0.2 1.2
5-9 0.4% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-10 0.1% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 47.4% 47.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 4.7 40.9 52.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 13.3 0.3 13.8 45.1 36.2 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%