Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #261
Expected Predictive Rating -7.6 #279
Pace 66.4 #263
Improvement -4.0 #352

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #303 D D- D+ C- F
Defense #187 C C- C C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #295 0.91 #362 -7.0 #351
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% #9 0.75 #173 +5.2 #13
Three Pointers 32% #337 1.13 #60 -2.8 #271
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #295 -4.6 #294
Freethrows 16.5 #228 60% #362 9.9 #320
Second Chance 30.2% #194 0.94 #293 0.28 #253
Turnovers 17.7% #241
Total Offense -5.1 #303

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #235 1.33 #337 -2.2 #260
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #329 0.68 #86 +2.6 #31
Three Pointers 48% #30 0.92 #82 -1.3 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #209 -1.0 #210
Freethrows 18.9 #266 70% #92 13.2 #232
Second Chance 31.5% #217 1.05 #207 0.33 #216
Turnovers 15.8% #237
Total Defense -0.7 #187

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.2% #355 1.1% #274
Shot Type Make Effect -5% #244 0.9% #200
Possession Length 18.1 #266 17.4 #222
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #196 0.22 #318
Improvement +0.9 #110 -4.9 #360
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.7% 39.7% 31.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 65.6% 75.0% 48.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 99.2% 94.5%
Conference Champion 50.9% 59.3% 35.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four27.8% 28.0% 27.6%
First Round22.9% 25.9% 17.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Away) - 64.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 414 - 715 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 111 William & Mary L 78-81 26%     3.6   0 - 1 -2.2 -1.2 -0.7
  Tue, Nov 11 243 @Old Dominion L 57-60 35%     -0.7   0 - 2 -4.7 -6.8 +1.6
  Fri, Nov 14 140 @Towson L 41-51 18%     0.6   0 - 3 -5.9 -21.5 +13.8
  Fri, Nov 21 242 Hampton W 62-60 57%     2.3   1 - 3 -5.7 -5.6 +0.2
  Sun, Nov 23 103 @Wyoming L 67-75 11%     -11.3   1 - 4 -0.2 +1.4 -2.0
  Sat, Nov 29 2 @Arizona L 61-98 1%     -17.5   1 - 5 -10.4 -2.6 -5.1
  Sat, Dec 6 204 @James Madison L 67-68 29%     -4.3   1 - 6 -1.0 -3.2 +2.2
  Wed, Dec 10 27 @Baylor L 67-97 2%     -16.1   1 - 7 -12.0 -6.3 -3.3
  Thu, Dec 18 249 Grambling St. L 68-80 47%     -14.5   1 - 8 -16.9 -9.7 -6.5
  Fri, Dec 19 336 Jackson St. W 82-72 70%     10.9   2 - 8 -1.3 +1.4 -3.1
  Sun, Dec 21 213 @UTEP W 72-71 30%     2.7   3 - 8 +0.7 +1.1 -0.3
  Mon, Dec 22 133 UC Irvine L 70-89 23%     -15.8   3 - 9 -17.1 +4.4 -22.1
  Sun, Dec 28 305 @Louisiana L 54-63 48%     -9.1   3 - 10 -14.4 -7.9 -8.2
  Sat, Jan 3 349 @NC Central W 69-65 65%    
  Sat, Jan 10 346 @Delaware St. W 68-64 63%    
  Mon, Jan 12 344 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-60 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 359 @South Carolina St. W 74-67 73%    
  Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 79-61 96%    
  Mon, Jan 26 360 Morgan St. W 79-66 88%    
  Sat, Jan 31 267 @Howard L 67-70 41%    
  Sat, Feb 7 349 NC Central W 72-62 82%    
  Sat, Feb 14 346 Delaware St. W 71-61 81%    
  Mon, Feb 16 344 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 66-63 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 359 South Carolina St. W 77-64 88%    
  Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 76-64 87%    
  Mon, Mar 2 360 @Morgan St. W 76-69 73%    
  Thu, Mar 5 267 Howard W 70-67 63%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 6.5 14.5 16.0 9.9 2.9 50.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 8.0 11.5 6.7 1.3 29.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.9 1.3 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.1 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 4.4 8.1 14.4 19.3 21.3 17.3 9.9 2.9 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
13-1 100.0% 9.9    9.5 0.4
12-2 92.3% 16.0    12.9 3.1
11-3 68.4% 14.5    8.5 5.7 0.4
10-4 33.7% 6.5    2.0 3.3 1.2 0.1
9-5 7.8% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 50.9% 50.9 35.8 12.8 2.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 2.9% 63.6% 63.6% 14.5 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 1.1
13-1 9.9% 55.3% 55.3% 15.8 0.1 1.0 4.4 4.4
12-2 17.3% 48.0% 48.0% 16.0 0.2 8.1 9.0
11-3 21.3% 40.3% 40.3% 16.0 0.0 8.5 12.7
10-4 19.3% 33.0% 33.0% 16.0 0.0 6.3 13.0
9-5 14.4% 24.3% 24.3% 16.0 3.5 10.9
8-6 8.1% 19.0% 19.0% 16.0 1.5 6.6
7-7 4.4% 18.7% 18.7% 16.0 0.8 3.6
6-8 1.6% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 0.2 1.4
5-9 0.6% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.1 0.5
4-10 0.2% 0.0 0.1
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 36.7% 36.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.8 2.3 33.6 63.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 14.5 5.9 38.9 51.9 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%