Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -9.5 316
Results Rating -11.0 330
Consistency 0.10 6
Pace 69.5 147
Improvement -3.5 308

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 303 D+ C- D+ C D+
Defense D 302 D D+ C D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 128 D- 51% 331 -1.7 244
2 Pt. Jumpers 60% 13 C- 37% 222 +2.4 63
Three Pointers 32% 345 C+ 35% 126 -4.1 319
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 290 D+ -2.7 272
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 286
Second Chance C 29.4% 207 C- 0.99 243 C- 0.29 222
Opponents' Steals D 10.8% 305
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 211
Turnovers D+ 18.2% 277
Freethrows B- 0.33 96 D- 67% 335 C 0.22 175
Total Offense D -5.1 303

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots F+ 34% 348 C- 12.2% 256
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 229 D+ 6.9% 303
Three Pointers B 89% 63 C 1.0% 213
Total D- 46% 341 D- 7.2% 326


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 164 D- 65% 341 +3.2 290
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% 362 D+ 41% 297 -2.9 6
Three Pointers 49% 12 C 34% 190 +4.1 337
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.2 351 D +3.0 294
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 322
Second Chance D+ 32.2% 264 C- 1.06 233 D+ 0.34 259
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.7% 236
Other Turnovers B- 7.9% 98
Turnovers C 16.6% 184
Freethrows D- 0.37 342 C+ 72% 139 D- 0.26 332
Total Defense D -4.4 302

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 287 D+ 8.8% 266
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 42% 352 D- 1.3% 348
Three Pointers D+ 86% 266 C- 0.6% 225
Total D- 64% 339 D 3.9% 315

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 225 17.1 135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 110 0.23 348
Consistency 0.10 42 0.11 60
Improvement +3.4 43 -6.9 363

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 321 314 298
Results Rating Rank 344 332 294
Conference Record 8 - 6 8 - 6 8 - 6
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 15% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four11% 15% 0%
First Round5% 7% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 412 - 812 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 140 William & Mary L 78 - 81 23% +4  75% 0 - 1 C- -5 D- -7 B+ F F B- +2 B- F A
 Tue, Nov 11 245 @Old Dominion L 57 - 60 23% -1  34% 0 - 2 C- -5 F+ -10 F B F B +4 B B- C-
 Fri, Nov 14 169 @Towson L 41 - 51 14% +1  52% 0 - 3 D+ -8 F -23 F B+ A A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 267 Hampton W 62 - 60 48% +2  74% 1 - 3 D+ -7 D- -8 D D- B- C+ +1 F B- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 100 @Wyoming L 67 - 75 6% -11  4% 1 - 4 C -0 C- -2 D+ D+ C- C+ +2 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 29 4 @Arizona L 61 - 98 0% -17  7% 1 - 5 D -8 D+ -4 B B C C- -2 C C C-
 Sat, Dec 6 207 @James Madison L 67 - 68 17% -4  6% 1 - 6 C -0 D+ -4 A- C F B- +3 B+ D F
 Wed, Dec 10 47 @Baylor L 67 - 97 2% -16  1% 1 - 7 F+ -15 F+ -10 F D- B- D+ -3 D+ C+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 307 Grambling St. L 68 - 80 48% -14  0% 1 - 8 F -21 F -11 F C B F+ -9 F A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 346 Jackson St. W 82 - 72 64% +11  83% 2 - 8 C- -3 D -5 B F F+ C+ +1 D- C- B+
 Sun, Dec 21 256 @UTEP W 72 - 71 24% +3  66% 3 - 8 C -1 C- -2 B- F F+ C+ +1 D- F+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 116 UC Irvine L 70 - 89 12% -16  0% 3 - 9 F+ -16 B- +4 B A F F -20 F F D-
 Sun, Dec 28 299 @Louisiana L 54 - 63 35% -9  0% 3 - 10 D- -14 F -12 F D- C+ D+ -4 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 352 @NC Central L 67 - 69 57% -3  16% 3 - 11 0 - 1 D- -13 F -12 F F C C -1 D A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 361 @Delaware St. W 66 - 64 70% -1  34% 4 - 11 1 - 1 D- -13 F -12 C F F C -1 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 350 Maryland Eastern Shore L 70 - 74 76% -0  38% 4 - 12 1 - 2 F -21 D+ -4 F A+ B F -18 D- C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 357 @South Carolina St. W 89 - 82 62% -0  39% 5 - 12 2 - 2 D+ -6 B +7 C A+ F F -13 F D C
 Sat, Jan 24 362 Coppin St. W 103 - 76 87% +15  96% 6 - 12 3 - 2 B- +6 B +7 A+ F F D+ -5 F D B-
 Mon, Jan 26 348 Morgan St. L 78 - 79 76% +3  60% 6 - 13 3 - 3 F+ -18 F -13 F C+ B D -5 F B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 183 @Howard L 60 - 88 16% -15  0% 6 - 14 3 - 4 F -27 F -12 F F D+ F -15 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 352 NC Central W 75 - 68 77% +3  70% 7 - 14 4 - 4 D -10 F -12 D- C+ F C+ +1 F+ A- A
 Sat, Feb 14 361 Delaware St. W 75 - 58 86% +10  85% 8 - 14 5 - 4 C- -4 C+ +3 C- A+ C- D+ -5 C- B D
 Mon, Feb 16 350 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 70 - 66 56% +1  60% 9 - 14 6 - 4 D+ -7 B- +5 A- B D F -11 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 21 357 South Carolina St. W 90 - 71 81% +10  96% 10 - 14 7 - 4 C +0 B- +5 A+ D- D+ D -5 C F A+
 Sat, Feb 28 362 @Coppin St. W 75 - 69 72% +6  89% 11 - 14 8 - 4 D -9 C- -1 D- A B+ F+ -8 B F F
 Mon, Mar 2 348 @Morgan St. L 84 - 90 55% -10  6% 11 - 15 8 - 5 F+ -17 D+ -4 F C A F -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Mar 5 183 Howard L 76 - 84 32% -1  42% 11 - 16 8 - 6 D- -13 C+ +2 C F A+ F -15 F F+ D+
 Thu, Mar 12 357 South Carolina St. W 77 - 71 72%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 6 -9 D -5 D- D+ D+ D -4 C+ D- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- C- C+ D+ 40% 60% 32% D+ D+ C C- C- D+ B- D- C D D- D+ C D 39% 12% 49% D- D D+ C- D+ C D- C+ D-
1.01 51% 37% 35% -3 -1 0.95 29% 1.0 .29 18% .33 67% .22 1.15 65% 41% 34% +3 +1 1.11 32% 1.1 .34 17% .37 72% .24
Nov
8		 William & Mary D- D D- A+ B+ 40% 12% 48% B- B+ B- F F F A+ F A+ B- B+ F C+ B 42% 2% 56% D- B- D- F F A F B+ F
1.01 55% 33% 46% +7 +1 1.18 33% 0.4 .12 25% .54 55% .29 1.05 53% 100% 32% -3 +3 1.02 30% 1.7 .52 22% .57 71% .40
Nov
11		 Old Dominion F+ F B F F 42% 27% 31% D+ F A D B F F A+ D B F C- A+ B+ 35% 19% 47% F+ B D- A+ B- C- F C F
0.96 42% 42% 21% -12 -1 0.78 42% 0.9 .39 20% .27 85% .23 1.01 80% 38% 15% -6 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .23 15% .38 74% .28
Nov
14		 Towson F F F+ F F 33% 37% 29% F F B+ B B+ A D- F F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 16% 61% D A+ C+ A+ A+ D- F+ A D+
0.69 6% 32% 13% -29 -3 0.39 33% 1.1 .35 10% .21 27% .06 0.86 55% 25% 20% -16 -1 0.69 34% 0.4 .15 13% .35 61% .21
Nov
21		 Hampton D- F C+ A+ D 43% 30% 27% D D C- F D- B- B- F F+ C+ F B- D- F 21% 28% 51% B+ F B- C+ B- B- B A+ A+
1.00 47% 38% 42% -1 -1 0.98 28% 0.8 .22 15% .42 50% .21 0.97 78% 33% 36% +5 -2 1.07 29% 0.9 .26 19% .30 53% .16
Nov
23		 Wyoming C- F A- B D+ 43% 25% 32% D D+ B F D+ C- A+ B A+ C+ A+ F A- A+ 49% 2% 49% F A+ F F F A F C- F
1.00 42% 45% 36% -4 0 0.93 31% 0.7 .22 18% .53 72% .38 1.12 38% 100% 29% -12 +3 0.84 46% 1.3 .60 21% .59 77% .45
Nov
29		 Arizona D+ B- B F B+ 29% 49% 22% F B D+ A+ B C F F F C- F+ D A+ C+ 57% 25% 18% F+ C B- D+ C C- F B+ F
0.81 56% 41% 25% -2 -4 0.89 20% 1.3 .25 19% .15 22% .03 1.30 72% 46% 22% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.1 .42 13% .70 70% .49
Dec
6		 James Madison D+ A+ C+ B+ A 42% 40% 18% F A- C+ C- C F C F F B- F B+ A+ B+ 31% 15% 54% C+ B+ A F D F F A+ C
1.03 74% 39% 38% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 23% .34 47% .16 1.05 73% 29% 23% -6 0 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 12% .39 55% .21
Dec
10		 Baylor F+ A+ C- F D+ 8% 72% 21% F F D F+ D- B- A+ D- A+ D+ F B+ F+ D- 29% 37% 34% B+ D+ C C+ C+ C+ C F D
0.88 100% 37% 18% -3 -9 0.79 24% 0.9 .21 16% .41 69% .28 1.27 88% 36% 40% +11 -3 1.19 38% 1.1 .41 16% .33 81% .26
Dec
18		 Grambling St. F D+ F F F 46% 26% 28% D F C C- C B A F F+ F+ F A+ F F 41% 19% 41% D+ F A+ C- A+ F D+ D- D
0.92 57% 23% 21% -10 0 0.82 34% 1.0 .34 18% .41 44% .18 1.08 73% 10% 41% +5 0 1.13 7% 1.0 .07 12% .34 77% .26
Dec
19		 Jackson St. D B+ B- A+ A 20% 37% 43% F B D F F F+ B+ A A C+ D+ A+ F F+ 24% 34% 42% A D- C- C C- B+ C C+ C
1.12 70% 39% 48% +11 -3 1.18 32% 0.7 .24 19% .41 83% .34 0.99 58% 24% 43% +1 -3 0.98 29% 1.0 .29 22% .28 75% .21
Dec
21		 UTEP C- F A+ A+ B- 38% 24% 38% C B- D+ F F F+ A+ F A+ C+ F A+ B D 36% 18% 46% F D- F B F+ A+ F A+ D-
1.04 41% 64% 41% +4 -1 1.09 30% 0.7 .21 22% .55 63% .35 1.02 78% 22% 30% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.9 .34 23% .50 44% .22
Dec
22		 UC Irvine B- D D- A+ A 28% 41% 30% F B F A+ A F A+ A A+ F F F B+ F 44% 16% 40% F F F F F D- D- F F
1.03 46% 32% 50% +1 -3 0.98 23% 1.9 .43 22% .38 80% .30 1.31 73% 50% 30% +6 +1 1.16 41% 1.3 .55 15% .34 85% .29
Dec
28		 Louisiana F F F B+ F 41% 18% 41% C- F D+ F D- C+ D- D- F+ D+ C F+ F F 24% 24% 52% D- F C+ A+ A+ F D- D D-
0.92 33% 13% 39% -12 0 0.80 30% 0.8 .24 17% .33 69% .23 1.07 55% 45% 42% +7 -1 1.13 26% 0.4 .10 12% .29 73% .21
Jan
3		 NC Central F F A F F 43% 26% 32% D F C+ F F C A- F B- C F A- A+ D+ 50% 14% 36% F D F A+ A+ B- F A- F
1.00 50% 50% 27% -4 0 0.94 40% 0.6 .24 18% .36 65% .24 1.03 68% 29% 22% -3 +2 1.00 45% 0.3 .14 19% .46 68% .31
Jan
10		 Delaware St. F D+ A+ C- C+ 49% 22% 29% C- C F+ F F F A D- B C C+ F A+ F 42% 15% 44% F F F F F A+ A- F B-
0.93 60% 56% 33% +4 +1 1.12 24% 1.0 .24 28% .42 67% .28 0.91 50% 100% 24% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 27% .21 82% .17
Jan
12		 Maryland Eastern Shore D+ D F+ F F 44% 26% 31% D F C+ A+ A+ B A+ D A+ F F A+ C- D 44% 14% 42% F D- F+ B- C- F F D F
1.10 53% 30% 17% -12 0 0.77 34% 2.0 .69 14% .60 70% .42 1.16 68% 0% 33% -1 +1 1.02 35% 0.8 .29 14% .68 76% .51
Jan
17		 South Carolina St. B C F+ B- C- 62% 8% 30% A- C C A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ F F B- D+ F 31% 18% 51% F F F A- D C D- F F
1.24 61% 33% 36% +2 +3 1.14 38% 1.8 .67 21% .83 79% .65 1.14 67% 33% 36% +3 0 1.08 42% 0.8 .33 21% .39 82% .32
Jan
24		 Coppin St. B A F A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% B+ A+ C F F F A+ C+ A+ D+ F A B+ F 37% 17% 46% F+ F C- D- D B- F A+ F
1.28 72% 0% 56% +21 +2 1.48 35% 0.8 .27 24% .70 77% .54 0.95 76% 25% 29% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.1 .33 24% .62 47% .29
Jan
26		 Morgan St. F F A+ F F 62% 9% 29% B+ F C- B+ C+ B C- F F+ D F D+ D+ F 34% 20% 46% D- F A+ F B+ C+ F D+ F
1.03 47% 60% 12% -15 +3 0.79 34% 1.3 .45 12% .40 59% .24 1.04 65% 40% 35% +3 0 1.08 12% 1.5 .18 18% .42 77% .32
Jan
31		 Howard F F F A- F 51% 16% 33% C+ F F F F D+ A- B- A- F D A+ F F 50% 9% 41% F F F F F A+ F F F
0.86 40% 13% 38% -12 +1 0.82 24% 0.8 .18 20% .39 73% .29 1.26 59% 25% 44% +6 +2 1.18 59% 1.3 .77 27% .57 86% .49
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 NC Central F D A+ D- F 55% 7% 38% A D- C+ C+ C+ F A+ B+ A+ C+ B F B- F+ 45% 24% 31% D+ F+ A- A- A- A B+ D- B-
1.05 57% 67% 31% 0 +3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 28% .52 78% .41 0.95 48% 67% 31% +1 0 1.04 21% 0.8 .18 22% .25 79% .20
Feb
14		 Delaware St. C+ A F B- C 44% 23% 33% D+ C- B+ A+ A+ C- A+ F A D+ F A A+ C 42% 29% 29% F+ C- A- B- B D F D F
1.19 74% 20% 36% +4 0 1.09 39% 1.4 .55 19% .53 59% .31 0.92 63% 27% 18% -8 -1 0.84 19% 0.7 .13 17% .69 72% .50
Feb
16		 Maryland Eastern Shore B- C+ C- A+ A+ 33% 28% 40% F A- B+ C B D A F C+ F C+ A+ F F 40% 9% 51% F F D- F F D- D A+ C+
1.18 62% 36% 50% +10 -1 1.20 39% 1.1 .43 19% .44 62% .27 1.12 53% 25% 41% +2 +2 1.09 34% 1.1 .38 20% .28 54% .15
Feb
21		 South Carolina St. B- B D+ A+ A+ 49% 16% 35% C- A+ F B+ D- D+ D B D+ D A+ F D+ B+ 51% 13% 36% F C F F F A+ F F F
1.26 67% 38% 59% +17 +1 1.39 28% 1.3 .36 18% .36 76% .27 0.99 30% 80% 36% -8 +2 0.90 42% 1.2 .52 32% .60 83% .50
Feb
28		 Coppin St. C- A- F B- D+ 32% 32% 36% F D- F+ A+ A B+ A+ B A+ F+ A- C- A+ A- 33% 16% 51% D- B F F+ F F F C F
1.14 71% 29% 38% +3 -2 1.05 27% 2.0 .55 14% .51 79% .40 1.04 44% 38% 24% -12 0 0.78 44% 1.1 .49 14% .49 68% .33
Mar
2		 Morgan St. D+ F F F F 63% 13% 24% B F B D- C A D+ F+ D- F D+ A- F F 38% 13% 49% F F A+ A A+ F D+ F F+
1.11 49% 25% 20% -13 +3 0.82 41% 1.0 .43 9% .38 65% .25 1.19 57% 29% 52% +12 +1 1.27 10% 0.7 .06 12% .36 83% .30
Mar
5		 Howard C+ A+ C- F C 56% 21% 23% C C D+ F F A+ D- A+ C F B+ F F F 45% 9% 45% D- F A+ F F+ D+ F D+ F
1.10 72% 33% 8% -2 +1 1.00 29% 0.8 .24 12% .28 82% .23 1.21 45% 50% 50% +6 +2 1.18 23% 2.0 .46 19% .46 77% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 100.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6 0.0%
7-7
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6 100.0% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 10.9 89.1
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 16.0 89.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.9% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 57.6%
Lose Out 26.4%