Howard
Mid-Eastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 #250
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 #264
Pace 71.3 #109
Improvement +2.1 #100

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #324 D- B- F+ B- B-
Defense #138 C D+ B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #12 0.95 #359 -0.1 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #198 0.64 #335 -1.4 #256
Three Pointers 34% #327 0.96 #261 -4.8 #326
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #342 -6.3 #343
Freethrows 0.33 #101 74% #136 0.24 #98
Second Chance 35.0% #63 1.07 #115 0.37 #61
Turnovers 21.1% #353
Total Offense -6.0 #324

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #57 1.14 #156 -2.4 #262
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #324 0.66 #35 +2.6 #15
Three Pointers 41% #174 1.00 #153 +0.3 #168
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #162 +0.6 #162
Freethrows 0.34 #290 72% #183 0.24 #279
Second Chance 32.7% #271 1.11 #299 0.36 #303
Turnovers 19.1% #69
Total Defense +0.9 #138

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #91 1.9% #341
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.5% #356 -2.9% #122
Possession Length 17.4 #188 16.3 #30
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #157 0.22 #321
Improvement -0.5 #214 +2.6 #50

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.3% 45.5% 35.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 96.3% 97.7% 86.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.4% 93.4%
Conference Champion 54.8% 59.0% 24.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four27.0% 26.9% 28.0%
First Round30.8% 31.8% 24.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 87.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 31 - 12 - 4
Quad 415 - 817 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 54 Missouri L 67 - 88 13% -14  0 - 1 -14 -6 C- D- C+ -8 D F B
 Sun, Nov 9 277 Grambling St. L 70 - 73 67% -1  0 - 2 -13 +1 A- A+ F -14 F+ F A-
 Thu, Nov 13 352 Alcorn St. W 72 - 64 84% +5  1 - 2 -8 -5 D+ A+ F -3 D+ A+ F+
 Wed, Nov 19 330 @Stetson L 60 - 64 59% -10  1 - 3 -11 -15 F F C+ +3 B- C+ A-
 Sat, Nov 22 341 Niagara W 80 - 70 74% -4  2 - 3 -2 -4 F+ C+ F +1 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 3 @Duke L 56 - 93 1% -29  2 - 4 -10 -4 F C+ A- -6 F+ B- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 291 @Mount St. Mary's L 75 - 79 47% -5  2 - 5 -8 +2 F A- A+ -10 F D D
 Tue, Dec 9 279 N.C. A&T W 73 - 69 57% +8  3 - 5 -3 -2 B+ F F -1 A F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 256 Hampton W 61 - 57 51% +3  4 - 5 -1 -10 F+ F C +9 A+ B D-
 Tue, Dec 16 204 @Drexel W 74 - 66 30% +7  5 - 5 +8 +8 C+ A F +1 C- B- C+
 Sat, Dec 20 116 @UNC Wilmington W 67 - 66 15% +4  6 - 5 +7 -0 D B+ F +8 A+ F A-
 Tue, Dec 30 66 @Northwestern L 60 - 80 7% -5  6 - 6 -9 -2 C- B- F+ -9 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 357 @South Carolina St. L 57 - 58 73% -7  6 - 7 0 - 1 -12 -20 F C- D +7 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 347 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 57 - 69 65% +2  6 - 8 0 - 2 -21 -20 F C- F -0 C- C+ C
 Mon, Jan 12 353 Delaware St. W 84 - 58 86% +14  7 - 8 1 - 2 +9 +16 C+ A+ A+ -4 C D- B
 Sat, Jan 17 342 @NC Central W 83 - 69 64% +5  8 - 8 2 - 2 +5 +8 D- A+ D+ -2 F+ B- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 354 Morgan St. L 77 - 78 86% +3  8 - 9 2 - 3 -18 -15 F A+ F -3 A F C+
 Sat, Jan 31 308 Norfolk St. W 88 - 60 74% +15  9 - 9 3 - 3 +16 +11 B- A+ F +5 B+ A- C+
 Mon, Feb 2 364 @Coppin St. W 72 - 53 88% +8  10 - 9 4 - 3 +1 +0 F A- F +3 B+ D D+
 Sat, Feb 7 357 South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 88%
 Mon, Feb 9 79 Yale L 69 - 78 20%
 Sat, Feb 14 347 Maryland Eastern Shore W 70 - 60 81%
 Mon, Feb 16 353 @Delaware St. W 70 - 64 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 342 NC Central W 76 - 66 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 354 @Morgan St. W 78 - 72 70%
 Mon, Mar 2 364 Coppin St. W 82 - 63 95%
 Thu, Mar 5 308 @Norfolk St. W 71 - 70 51%
Totals 16 - 11 9 - 5 -5 -6 D- B- F+ +1 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 10.9 28.2 15.6 54.8 1st
2nd 3.0 14.4 5.3 0.4 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 7.2 3.6 0.1 11.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 4.2 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 0.5 2.3 0.5 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.2 15.0 29.0 33.6 15.9 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 97.7% 15.6    14.0 1.6
10-4 84.0% 28.2    14.3 12.4 1.6
9-5 37.6% 10.9    0.8 3.6 4.7 1.8 0.2
8-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 54.8% 54.8 29.1 17.5 6.2 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 15.9% 61.7% 61.7% 15.6 0.1 0.5 2.7 6.6 6.1
10-4 33.6% 50.7% 50.7% 15.9 0.0 1.5 15.5 16.6
9-5 29.0% 37.4% 37.4% 16.0 0.5 10.4 18.2
8-6 15.0% 32.8% 32.8% 16.0 0.0 4.9 10.1
7-7 5.2% 24.6% 24.6% 16.0 1.3 3.9
6-8 1.2% 33.6% 33.6% 16.0 0.4 0.8
5-9 0.1% 0.1
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 44.3% 44.3% 0.0% 15.9 55.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 14.8 2.4 18.5 71.4 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%