Iowa
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#19
Expected Predictive Rating+16.4#16
Pace75.7#48
Improvement-1.9#313

Offense
Total Offense+12.9#3
First Shot+11.0#4
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#73
Layup/Dunks+4.4#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#31
Freethrows+2.5#41
Improvement+0.3#136

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#118
First Shot+3.7#66
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#303
Layups/Dunks-1.3#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#190
Freethrows+3.4#15
Improvement-2.1#335
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 3.6% 0.8%
#1 Seed 6.3% 15.1% 4.1%
Top 2 Seed 14.8% 30.8% 10.8%
Top 4 Seed 39.0% 56.5% 34.7%
Top 6 Seed 62.3% 78.3% 58.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.4% 96.4% 87.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.2% 95.8% 86.5%
Average Seed 5.2 4.2 5.5
.500 or above 98.8% 99.9% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 93.2% 81.7%
Conference Champion 12.1% 27.8% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four2.5% 1.3% 2.8%
First Round88.3% 95.6% 86.5%
Second Round63.9% 77.8% 60.4%
Sweet Sixteen33.6% 43.0% 31.2%
Elite Eight15.2% 23.0% 13.3%
Final Four7.0% 12.5% 5.7%
Championship Game3.1% 5.2% 2.6%
National Champion1.3% 2.0% 1.1%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 19.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 26 - 213 - 9
Quad 33 - 016 - 9
Quad 48 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 210   Longwood W 106-73 95%     1 - 0 +27.9 +23.7 +2.0
  Nov 12, 2021 215   UMKC W 89-57 96%     2 - 0 +26.7 +10.3 +15.3
  Nov 16, 2021 337   NC Central W 86-69 99%     3 - 0 +1.6 +6.2 -4.9
  Nov 18, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 108-82 99%     4 - 0 +10.3 +24.4 -15.4
  Nov 22, 2021 296   Western Michigan W 109-61 98%     5 - 0 +37.7 +17.7 +15.0
  Nov 26, 2021 269   Portland St. W 85-51 97%     6 - 0 +25.0 +3.2 +19.2
  Nov 29, 2021 40   @ Virginia W 75-74 53%     7 - 0 +14.7 +28.9 -14.0
  Dec 03, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 78-87 20%    
  Dec 06, 2021 30   Illinois W 85-80 70%    
  Dec 09, 2021 59   @ Iowa St. W 82-78 64%    
  Dec 18, 2021 46   Utah St. W 82-77 66%    
  Dec 21, 2021 327   SE Louisiana W 94-66 99%    
  Dec 29, 2021 191   Western Illinois W 93-74 95%    
  Jan 03, 2022 52   Maryland W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 06, 2022 29   @ Wisconsin L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 13, 2022 34   Indiana W 82-76 69%    
  Jan 16, 2022 94   @ Minnesota W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 19, 2022 87   @ Rutgers W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 67   Penn St. W 78-68 81%    
  Jan 27, 2022 2   Purdue L 81-84 39%    
  Jan 31, 2022 67   @ Penn St. W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 03, 2022 25   @ Ohio St. L 79-81 43%    
  Feb 06, 2022 94   Minnesota W 83-71 84%    
  Feb 10, 2022 52   @ Maryland W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 13, 2022 107   Nebraska W 90-77 87%    
  Feb 17, 2022 15   Michigan W 78-76 58%    
  Feb 22, 2022 22   Michigan St. W 81-77 62%    
  Feb 25, 2022 107   @ Nebraska W 87-80 74%    
  Feb 28, 2022 47   Northwestern W 84-76 74%    
  Mar 03, 2022 15   @ Michigan L 75-79 38%    
  Mar 06, 2022 30   @ Illinois L 82-83 49%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 2.4 3.8 2.9 1.4 0.9 0.1 12.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 4.3 5.6 3.0 1.0 0.1 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 5.0 5.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.4 4.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.9 5.6 1.7 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 4.6 2.2 0.2 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.2 2.2 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.7 2.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.5 6.5 8.8 12.5 14.2 12.8 11.9 10.3 7.0 3.9 1.5 0.9 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 92.9% 1.4    1.3 0.2
17-3 73.1% 2.9    2.0 0.9 0.0
16-4 54.4% 3.8    2.0 1.6 0.3
15-5 23.3% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.5 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 7.1 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 57.7% 42.3% 1.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 100.0%
17-3 3.9% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 1.6 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 7.0% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 2.3 1.3 2.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.3% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3.1 0.8 2.3 3.6 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.9% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 4.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 3.7 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.8% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 4.9 0.1 0.3 1.7 3.1 3.6 2.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 14.2% 99.7% 7.8% 92.0% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.6 3.6 3.6 2.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.7%
11-9 12.5% 97.6% 3.5% 94.1% 7.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.7 3.0 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.5%
10-10 8.8% 90.6% 1.8% 88.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.8 90.5%
9-11 6.5% 73.7% 2.3% 71.5% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.3 1.7 73.1%
8-12 4.5% 31.4% 0.5% 30.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 3.1 31.0%
7-13 2.7% 13.3% 1.6% 11.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4 11.8%
6-14 1.5% 5.8% 5.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 5.8%
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 89.4% 10.1% 79.3% 5.2 6.3 8.5 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.4 8.5 6.7 4.4 3.6 3.0 0.8 0.0 10.6 88.2%