Iowa
Big Ten
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#31
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#44
Pace73.9#44
Improvement-0.5#245

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#5
First Shot+8.0#11
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#42
Layup/Dunks+4.4#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#126
Freethrows+2.7#22
Improvement+0.0#193

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#113
First Shot+1.5#125
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#135
Layups/Dunks-3.5#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#142
Freethrows+3.5#8
Improvement-0.5#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.6% 6.2% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 25.0% 31.2% 12.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.6% 85.2% 65.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.0% 84.1% 62.5%
Average Seed 7.5 7.2 8.2
.500 or above 97.1% 99.1% 92.9%
.500 or above in Conference 74.6% 83.5% 56.1%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.5% 5.3% 9.1%
First Round75.7% 82.9% 60.9%
Second Round43.8% 49.0% 33.2%
Sweet Sixteen17.0% 19.7% 11.3%
Elite Eight7.1% 8.4% 4.4%
Final Four2.8% 3.4% 1.6%
Championship Game1.1% 1.3% 0.5%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Northwestern (Home) - 67.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 37 - 8
Quad 24 - 211 - 10
Quad 32 - 113 - 11
Quad 45 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 355   Bethune-Cookman W 89-58 99%     1 - 0 +13.8 +1.5 +10.4
  Nov 11, 2022 276   N.C. A&T W 112-71 96%     2 - 0 +32.4 +19.2 +7.7
  Nov 16, 2022 47   @ Seton Hall W 83-67 47%     3 - 0 +28.9 +19.9 +9.0
  Nov 21, 2022 310   Nebraska Omaha W 100-64 97%     4 - 0 +25.2 +15.2 +8.1
  Nov 25, 2022 55   Clemson W 74-71 61%     5 - 0 +12.5 +8.2 +4.3
  Nov 26, 2022 15   TCU L 66-79 41%     5 - 1 +1.7 +0.1 +1.8
  Nov 29, 2022 158   Georgia Tech W 81-65 90%     6 - 1 +13.9 +15.2 +0.0
  Dec 06, 2022 22   Duke L 62-74 45%     6 - 2 +1.5 -2.4 +3.5
  Dec 08, 2022 19   Iowa St. W 75-56 54%     7 - 2 +30.3 +12.0 +18.8
  Dec 11, 2022 57   Wisconsin L 75-78 OT 71%     7 - 3 0 - 1 +3.5 +0.5 +3.3
  Dec 17, 2022 250   Southeast Missouri St. W 106-75 96%     8 - 3 +23.6 +18.3 +1.9
  Dec 21, 2022 345   Eastern Illinois L 83-92 98%     8 - 4 -23.5 -7.3 -15.0
  Dec 29, 2022 91   @ Nebraska L 50-66 66%     8 - 5 0 - 2 -7.9 -13.4 +4.4
  Jan 01, 2023 42   @ Penn St. L 79-83 45%     8 - 6 0 - 3 +9.5 +11.6 -2.1
  Jan 05, 2023 16   Indiana W 91-89 53%     9 - 6 1 - 3 +13.6 +15.6 -2.2
  Jan 08, 2023 24   @ Rutgers W 76-65 36%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +26.9 +17.8 +9.4
  Jan 12, 2023 58   Michigan W 93-84 OT 71%     11 - 6 3 - 3 +15.4 +18.3 -3.3
  Jan 15, 2023 33   Maryland W 81-67 61%     12 - 6 4 - 3 +23.3 +20.4 +4.2
  Jan 21, 2023 29   @ Ohio St. L 77-93 38%     12 - 7 4 - 4 -0.7 +7.7 -8.2
  Jan 26, 2023 38   @ Michigan St. L 61-63 43%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +12.1 -0.5 +12.4
  Jan 29, 2023 24   Rutgers W 93-82 56%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +21.6 +21.1 -0.6
  Jan 31, 2023 45   Northwestern W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 04, 2023 18   Illinois W 79-78 55%    
  Feb 09, 2023 5   @ Purdue L 70-78 21%    
  Feb 12, 2023 160   @ Minnesota W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 16, 2023 29   Ohio St. W 80-78 60%    
  Feb 19, 2023 45   @ Northwestern L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 22, 2023 57   @ Wisconsin W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 25, 2023 38   Michigan St. W 75-72 65%    
  Feb 28, 2023 16   @ Indiana L 77-82 32%    
  Mar 05, 2023 91   Nebraska W 78-69 82%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 4.5 1.8 0.1 8.5 2nd
3rd 1.0 7.0 3.5 0.2 11.8 3rd
4th 0.1 5.5 6.2 0.4 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 1.3 9.0 2.0 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 5.2 6.2 0.2 11.7 6th
7th 0.8 8.8 1.6 11.2 7th
8th 0.1 4.0 5.7 0.2 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 6.3 1.2 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.8 3.3 0.1 6.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.0 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.4 7.4 15.1 22.4 23.5 17.5 8.5 2.4 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 42.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.3% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.4% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 3.8 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 8.5% 100.0% 9.1% 90.8% 5.1 0.3 1.8 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 17.5% 99.3% 8.7% 90.7% 6.3 0.0 0.2 3.1 7.1 5.6 1.2 0.1 0.1 99.3%
11-9 23.5% 96.4% 8.0% 88.4% 7.4 0.0 0.4 3.3 8.4 7.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 96.1%
10-10 22.4% 85.4% 6.3% 79.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.7 6.5 4.6 0.8 3.3 84.4%
9-11 15.1% 49.3% 5.1% 44.2% 10.6 0.1 0.3 2.5 4.3 0.3 7.7 46.6%
8-12 7.4% 9.8% 4.8% 5.0% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 5.3%
7-13 2.4% 4.4% 4.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
6-14 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 78.6% 7.1% 71.5% 7.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 7.6 12.8 15.8 14.8 9.3 7.4 5.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 21.4 77.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.5 8.6 39.7 46.6 5.2
Lose Out 0.0%