Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.4 6
Expected Predictive Rating +20.7 10
Pace 65.8 256
Improvement +0.8 150

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A+ #1 A- A+ A- B B-
Defense B+ #34 A A- F+ A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 274 67% 25 +1.4 127
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 331 44% 41 -2.3 290
Three Pointers 52% 17 37% 56 +8.2 11
1st FG Attempt 1.16 19 +7.3 19
Second Chance 41.6% 3 1.22 14 0.51 2
Turnovers 13.3% 15
Freethrows 0.32 146 79% 8 0.25 72
Total Offense +14.3 1

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 26% 361 51% 28 +9.2 4
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 4 33% 24 -2.7 346
Three Pointers 42% 146 31% 76 +1.2 134
1st FG Attempt 0.87 10 +7.6 10
Second Chance 24.2% 14 0.88 22 0.21 9
Turnovers 12.6% 354
Freethrows 0.16 1 70% 51 0.11 1
Total Defense +7.0 34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.8 75 -2.3 2
Shot Type Accuracy +6.3 24 -5.4 25
Possession Length 17.6 216 18.2 310
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 301 0.13 50
Improvement +2.2 #71 -1.4 #270

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.3% 2.6% 0.7%
#1 Seed 19.9% 22.1% 9.0%
Top 2 Seed 59.3% 62.9% 41.7%
Top 4 Seed 97.4% 98.1% 93.7%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.4 2.3 2.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 18.5% 21.1% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.1% 98.4% 96.9%
Sweet Sixteen71.0% 71.8% 67.0%
Elite Eight41.5% 42.7% 35.9%
Final Four21.7% 22.2% 18.9%
Championship Game11.3% 11.7% 8.9%
National Champion5.2% 5.5% 3.7%

Next Game: Indiana (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 56 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 6
Quad 25 - 115 - 7
Quad 35 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 345 Jackson St. W 113 - 55 100% +33  97% 1 - 0 A+ +43 A+ +21 A+ A+ C- A+ +18 A- A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 7 238 Florida Gulf Coast W 113 - 70 99% +31  99% 2 - 0 A+ +36 A+ +26 A+ A+ A+ B+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 21 Texas Tech W 81 - 77 74% +4  84% 3 - 0 A +19 A- +9 B+ A+ C- A- +9 C+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 208 Colgate W 84 - 65 99% +11  95% 4 - 0 B+ +13 A- +9 F+ A+ A B +5 A- A- F
 Wed, Nov 19 19 Alabama L 86 - 90 64% -1  53% 4 - 1 B+ +14 B +6 A- A C A- +8 B C+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 209 LIU Brooklyn W 98 - 58 99% +26  93% 5 - 1 A+ +34 A+ +20 A+ A+ C+ A+ +14 B A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 150 UT Rio Grande Valley W 87 - 73 98% +8  80% 6 - 1 B+ +12 A- +11 A- B- B- C+ +1 B+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 28 7 Connecticut L 61 - 74 51% -10  0% 6 - 2 B +8 C +0 D+ C- A B+ +7 B A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 16 Tennessee W 75 - 62 63% +4  80% 7 - 2 A+ +31 A+ +19 A A+ A+ A+ +14 A+ D+ B+
 Tue, Dec 9 39 @Ohio St. W 88 - 80 68% +4  87% 8 - 2 1 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +19 A+ D+ A B+ +6 A C+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 15 Nebraska L 80 - 83 71% -6  1% 8 - 3 1 - 1 B+ +12 A+ +22 A A+ A+ F+ -10 C C- F+
 Mon, Dec 22 49 Missouri W 91 - 48 84% +17  91% 9 - 3 A+ +54 A+ +31 A- A+ C A+ +28 A+ A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 264 Southern W 90 - 55 99% +20  99% 10 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +18 A+ A+ D- A +11 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 3 113 @Penn St. W 73 - 65 91% +10  99% 11 - 3 2 - 1 B+ +14 C +1 F D+ A- A+ +14 A+ B- F+
 Thu, Jan 8 121 Rutgers W 81 - 55 97% +17  95% 12 - 3 3 - 1 A+ +26 A +12 A+ F A+ A+ +16 A A+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 22 @Iowa W 75 - 69 56% +10  99% 13 - 3 4 - 1 A+ +26 A +13 A- C+ A A+ +13 A+ A D-
 Wed, Jan 14 65 @Northwestern W 79 - 68 83% +5  82% 14 - 3 5 - 1 A +22 A+ +22 A A+ A- C+ +2 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 17 73 Minnesota W 77 - 67 93% +2  55% 15 - 3 6 - 1 A- +15 A+ +14 B+ A+ B C+ +2 A- F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 111 Maryland W 89 - 70 96% +12  76% 16 - 3 7 - 1 A +20 A+ +16 C+ A+ A+ B- +4 B+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 9 @Purdue W 88 - 82 41% -3  22% 17 - 3 8 - 1 A+ +30 A+ +31 A+ A+ B C -1 D A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 45 Washington W 75 - 66 87% +5  85% 18 - 3 9 - 1 A +18 A +14 C- A+ A+ B +6 D+ A+ C+
 Sun, Feb 1 15 @Nebraska W 78 - 69 49% +2  51% 19 - 3 10 - 1 A+ +30 A+ +22 A A- A+ A- +9 B+ B+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 65 Northwestern W 84 - 44 92% +26  91% 20 - 3 11 - 1 A+ +45 A+ +19 A+ A+ C A+ +31 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 10 @Michigan St. L 82 - 85 OT 45% +2  63% 20 - 4 11 - 2 A +20 A+ +19 C+ A- A+ C+ +1 B- A+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 36 Wisconsin L 90 - 92 OT 83% +2  54% 20 - 5 11 - 3 B +9 A +14 A+ A- D+ D+ -5 C B+ F
 Sun, Feb 15 33 Indiana W 82 - 72 83%
 Wed, Feb 18 46 @USC W 81 - 74 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 35 @UCLA W 76 - 72 65%
 Fri, Feb 27 1 Michigan L 79 - 81 45%
 Tue, Mar 3 80 Oregon W 83 - 66 95%
 Sun, Mar 8 111 @Maryland W 84 - 69 91%
Totals 25 - 6 16 - 4 +21 A+ +14 A- A+ A- B+ +7 A A- F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A+ A- B+ B A- 35% 13% 52% B- A- A A- A+ A- C+ A- B B+ B+ B+ B- A- 26% 32% 42% A+ A A- B+ A- F+ A+ B A+
1.29 67% 44% 37% +6 +1 1.16 42% 1.2 .51 13% .32 79% .25 0.99 51% 33% 31% -5 -2 0.87 24% 0.9 .21 13% .16 70% .22
Nov
3		 Jackson St. A+ D B- A+ A+ 32% 9% 59% C+ A+ A+ A- A+ C- B D- C+ A+ D- A A B 13% 42% 45% A+ A- A+ A+ A+ F+ B B+ B+
1.50 56% 40% 52% +15 +1 1.34 58% 1.2 .72 16% .38 67% .25 0.73 63% 28% 26% -9 -5 0.75 9% 0.3 .02 15% .22 71% .15
Nov
7		 Florida Gulf Coast A+ A+ B B- A+ 38% 13% 49% B- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B A B A 20% 45% 35% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ F A+ F B+
1.51 86% 43% 37% +14 +1 1.31 39% 1.5 .61 9% .50 88% .44 0.93 54% 30% 30% -6 -5 0.80 25% 0.5 .13 1% .16 92% .15
Nov
11		 Texas Tech A- A- A- D B+ 35% 25% 40% B+ B+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ B- A+ A- F F A+ C 29% 34% 37% A C+ A+ A- A+ B+ A+ D+ A+
1.13 67% 46% 29% +2 -1 1.04 32% 1.3 .41 18% .39 70% .27 1.07 82% 55% 27% +9 -2 1.15 23% 0.9 .20 18% .07 75% .05
Nov
14		 Colgate A- C+ F F+ F+ 25% 15% 60% C- F+ A+ B+ A+ A A A+ A+ B F C+ A B- 19% 49% 32% A+ A- A+ D+ A- F A+ F A-
1.26 62% 25% 28% -6 0 0.89 45% 1.2 .52 10% .40 88% .35 0.97 73% 39% 28% +1 -5 0.93 17% 1.0 .17 7% .15 89% .13
Nov
19		 Alabama B A- F B+ B+ 37% 18% 45% B+ A- B+ A A C B F C+ A- C- B D+ C+ 26% 19% 56% A B A F C+ C C B- C
1.09 64% 18% 37% +1 0 1.03 33% 1.1 .38 14% .33 59% .19 1.14 64% 40% 37% +4 -1 1.09 28% 1.4 .39 13% .33 74% .25
Nov
22		 LIU Brooklyn A+ A+ A+ D A+ 55% 22% 24% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ B D A+ A+ D D+ B- 28% 30% 42% A B A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+
1.38 77% 58% 31% +14 +1 1.31 50% 1.3 .65 17% .25 73% .19 0.81 40% 44% 36% -2 -2 0.94 25% 0.6 .14 24% .13 57% .07
Nov
24		 UT Rio Grande Valley A- A+ D+ F+ A- 34% 11% 55% B A- C+ B+ B- B- B A+ A+ C+ B+ A+ F B- 28% 34% 38% A+ B+ B C B- F C- A+ B+
1.24 94% 33% 28% +7 +1 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 16% .37 86% .32 1.04 50% 20% 45% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.1 .27 6% .24 50% .12
Nov
28		 Connecticut C D- A+ F D- 44% 8% 48% A+ D+ B F C- A C- A+ A- B+ B+ F C B 35% 15% 50% B B C+ A+ A+ D+ C C C
0.92 43% 50% 20% -16 +2 0.75 31% 0.7 .21 15% .32 94% .30 1.12 56% 63% 35% +3 0 1.10 36% 0.8 .28 15% .30 71% .21
Dec
6		 Tennessee A+ B- C- B A- 48% 6% 46% A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ D F D- A+ A+ A+ B A+ 45% 21% 34% C+ A+ F B D+ B+ C+ A+ A+
1.22 58% 33% 35% 0 +3 1.08 32% 1.4 .44 10% .25 57% .14 1.01 43% 10% 31% -14 0 0.74 53% 1.0 .51 21% .37 44% .16
Dec
9		 Ohio St. A+ C- B- A+ A+ 23% 26% 51% C- A+ C- D D+ A A+ A+ A+ B+ D+ C+ B+ A 24% 26% 50% B+ A A+ F C+ F B- A- B+
1.26 55% 42% 46% +9 -2 1.17 28% 0.9 .25 13% .53 91% .48 1.15 69% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 20% 1.9 .37 9% .33 71% .24
Dec
13		 Nebraska A+ A+ A+ D- A 26% 21% 53% B A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ F+ D- C- F D 27% 29% 45% A+ C C C- C- F+ A+ F A
1.27 83% 50% 28% +4 -1 1.09 41% 1.5 .59 13% .36 70% .25 1.31 73% 38% 44% +11 -2 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 10% .14 88% .12
Dec
22		 Missouri A+ A- C- A- A 18% 25% 57% D+ A- A+ A+ A+ C A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ 28% 32% 40% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ D A C+ A-
1.46 63% 36% 40% +6 -2 1.09 56% 1.9 1.07 18% .39 80% .31 0.77 38% 20% 32% -13 -2 0.72 30% 0.4 .13 16% .29 67% .19
Dec
29		 Southern A+ A+ F A+ A+ 30% 11% 59% B- A+ A+ C A+ D- C- A+ B A B- A+ A+ A+ 31% 44% 25% A+ A+ C C C F A+ F+ A+
1.39 93% 20% 44% +18 +1 1.39 55% 1.1 .62 22% .36 89% .32 0.85 53% 21% 21% -14 -4 0.67 31% 1.0 .31 12% .14 75% .11
Jan
3		 Penn St. C B- F F F 33% 16% 51% C F B+ F D+ A- A+ A A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 28% 14% 58% B A+ C+ B- B- F+ A A+ A+
1.08 63% 25% 24% -8 0 0.86 36% 0.9 .33 15% .49 82% .40 0.96 44% 38% 24% -12 0 0.77 29% 1.1 .33 10% .23 64% .15
Jan
8		 Rutgers A C+ A+ B+ A+ 31% 16% 53% C+ A+ C+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B- A- 18% 48% 34% A+ A A+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ A+
1.26 60% 75% 38% +10 0 1.22 34% 0.3 .11 11% .37 86% .31 0.85 30% 37% 32% -7 -5 0.79 21% 1.0 .21 11% .14 38% .05
Jan
11		 Iowa A B+ F C B+ 46% 8% 46% A A- B- C- C+ A F A+ F+ A+ D+ A+ A- A+ 32% 21% 46% A- A+ A A- A D- A+ F A+
1.14 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.12 30% 0.9 .27 18% .20 82% .17 1.04 67% 25% 31% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 12% .10 100% .10
Jan
14		 Northwestern A+ D+ A+ A A 27% 16% 57% C+ A A+ A+ A+ A- F A+ D- C+ A+ B+ B- A+ 21% 28% 51% A+ A+ F F F C- C+ F D
1.33 54% 50% 39% +6 0 1.12 45% 1.4 .61 13% .16 100% .16 1.14 11% 33% 32% -13 -2 0.72 41% 1.7 .69 12% .32 88% .29
Jan
17		 Minnesota A+ B- A+ C+ B+ 22% 22% 57% C- B+ A+ B A+ B A+ A+ A+ C+ F A B- B 19% 30% 52% A+ A- C F F+ F A+ F A+
1.25 60% 50% 35% +4 -1 1.07 46% 0.9 .43 16% .37 84% .31 1.09 80% 25% 32% -1 -3 0.94 31% 1.4 .42 11% .05 100% .05
Jan
21		 Maryland A+ C- A+ C+ B- 17% 19% 64% D- C+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B- F B+ A- C+ 15% 36% 49% A+ B+ A+ F B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.31 56% 50% 35% +3 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .49 10% .46 71% .33 1.03 78% 33% 28% -3 -4 0.88 22% 1.4 .32 7% .25 50% .13
Jan
24		 Purdue A+ F A+ A+ A+ 17% 12% 71% B A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ C F F F+ F+ 33% 36% 31% A D A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A-
1.39 29% 60% 50% +15 0 1.31 45% 1.4 .62 16% .41 73% .30 1.29 78% 55% 41% +16 -2 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 5% .18 82% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Washington A D+ A+ F D 38% 10% 52% A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ C B F F C+ F+ 21% 40% 38% A+ D+ C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F A
1.23 53% 60% 23% -8 +1 0.88 38% 1.7 .65 8% .28 63% .18 1.08 80% 53% 33% +10 -4 1.15 35% 0.4 .13 16% .16 100% .16
Feb
1		 Nebraska A+ A+ F+ D+ A- 29% 15% 56% A A A B- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A- F B- 21% 21% 58% A+ B+ A+ F B+ C- A+ D A+
1.23 86% 29% 30% +3 0 1.08 34% 0.9 .31 13% .47 81% .38 1.09 45% 27% 45% +5 -1 1.09 17% 1.3 .23 13% .09 80% .07
Feb
4		 Northwestern A+ A F A+ A+ 21% 8% 71% B- A+ A- A+ A+ C C- A C+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 22% 37% 41% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+
1.33 70% 25% 44% +12 0 1.27 39% 1.3 .50 17% .27 79% .21 0.70 46% 36% 17% -14 -3 0.68 13% 0.3 .04 2% .06 50% .03
Feb
7		 Michigan St. A+ C+ F D+ C 30% 16% 54% B- C+ A+ B A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C D C- C 29% 41% 30% A+ B- C+ A+ A+ F C F D-
1.15 56% 20% 30% -7 0 0.89 31% 0.8 .25 6% .36 83% .30 1.19 63% 43% 35% +4 -3 1.04 39% 0.8 .32 11% .36 87% .32
Feb
10		 Wisconsin A A+ F+ A+ A+ 25% 16% 58% C+ A+ B A A- D+ B+ F C D+ C- A+ F D+ 29% 21% 50% A+ C C- A+ B+ F A+ A- A+
1.23 79% 33% 44% +13 0 1.27 28% 1.3 .34 18% .31 58% .18 1.25 63% 21% 45% +7 -1 1.14 32% 0.9 .27 5% .20 71% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.5 12.8 18.5 1st
2nd 0.5 11.7 26.7 4.8 43.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.4 13.9 4.8 22.2 3rd
4th 0.5 5.4 4.6 0.2 10.7 4th
5th 1.2 2.4 0.2 3.8 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.3 2.5 11.8 30.6 37.2 17.6 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 73.0% 12.8    4.3 7.2 1.2 0.1
16-4 14.8% 5.5    0.4 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.2
15-5 0.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 18.5% 18.5 4.7 9.3 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 17.6% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 1.6 8.2 7.8 1.5 0.1 100.0%
16-4 37.2% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 2.1 8.3 18.0 9.2 1.6 0.1 100.0%
15-5 30.6% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 2.6 3.1 11.1 11.6 4.2 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.8% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 3.3 0.4 2.2 4.4 3.5 1.1 0.1 100.0%
13-7 2.5% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 3.9 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.3% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 16.8% 83.3% 2.4 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 100.0% 1.3 74.4 24.6 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.6% 100.0% 1.6 46.8 48.3 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.3% 100.0% 1.8 35.4 51.7 11.7 1.1