Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.9 6
Expected Predictive Rating +21.0 10
Pace 65.2 273
Improvement +1.5 125

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A+ 1 A- A+ A- B- B-
Defense B+ 28 A A F+ A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 272 A- 68% 19 +1.6 115
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 345 B+ 45% 32 -2.3 296
Three Pointers 52% 15 B 37% 65 +8.0 12
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 72 A- +6.2 23
1st FG Attempt A- 1.16 20
Second Chance A 41.7% 3 A- 1.22 16 A+ 0.51 2
Turnovers A- 12.8% 11
Freethrows C 0.31 165 A- 79% 5 B- 0.25 93
Total Offense A+ +14.6 1

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 282 B+ 7.8% 34
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 218 C 5.6% 230
Three Pointers D+ 80% 268 B 0.4% 66
Total C 55% 192 A- 3.7% 17

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 26% 362 B+ 51% 28 -9.1 4
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 2 B+ 33% 30 +2.9 348
Three Pointers 42% 155 B 31% 63 -1.5 114
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -2.4 2 A- -5.4 25
1st FG Attempt A 0.87 10
Second Chance A- 23.7% 9 A- 0.88 19 A 0.21 6
Turnovers F+ 12.8% 353
Freethrows A+ 0.16 1 B 70% 55 A+ 0.11 1
Total Defense B+ +7.3 28

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A 35% 5 A- 17.4% 24
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 19% 61 A- 9.4% 22
Three Pointers C+ 83% 268 B 1.7% 66
Total B+ 47% 24 B+ 8.3% 28

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 227 18.3 321
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 304 0.12 42
Improvement +2.1 #87 -0.5 #227

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2% 3% 1%
#1 Seed 21% 24% 11%
Top 2 Seed 60% 66% 42%
Top 4 Seed 98% 99% 95%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 2.3 2.2 2.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 9% 11% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round98% 99% 98%
Sweet Sixteen74% 75% 70%
Elite Eight44% 46% 39%
Final Four23% 24% 19%
Championship Game11% 12% 9%
National Champion5% 6% 4%

Next Game: USC (Away) - 76.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 56 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 110 - 6
Quad 25 - 115 - 7
Quad 35 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 332 Jackson St. W 113 - 55 100% +33  97% 1 - 0 A+ +44 A+ +21 A+ A+ C- A+ +18 A A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 7 251 Florida Gulf Coast W 113 - 70 99% +31  99% 2 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +26 A+ A+ A+ B+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 17 Texas Tech W 81 - 77 73% +4  84% 3 - 0 A +19 A- +10 A- A+ C- A +9 C+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 235 Colgate W 84 - 65 99% +11  95% 4 - 0 B+ +12 B+ +8 F+ A+ A B +5 B+ A- F
 Wed, Nov 19 18 Alabama L 86 - 90 64% -1  53% 4 - 1 B+ +14 B +6 A- A C A +8 B C+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 204 LIU Brooklyn W 98 - 58 99% +26  93% 5 - 1 A+ +34 A+ +20 A+ A+ C+ A+ +13 B A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 153 UT Rio Grande Valley W 87 - 73 98% +8  80% 6 - 1 B +11 A- +11 A- B B- C+ +0 B+ C+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 9 Connecticut L 61 - 74 55% -10  0% 6 - 2 B- +7 C- -1 D C- A A- +8 B+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 19 Tennessee W 75 - 62 65% +4  80% 7 - 2 A+ +31 A+ +19 A A+ A+ A+ +13 A+ C- B+
 Tue, Dec 9 35 @Ohio St. W 88 - 80 67% +4  87% 8 - 2 1 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +19 A+ D+ A B+ +6 A C+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 14 Nebraska L 80 - 83 72% -6  1% 8 - 3 1 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +23 A A+ A+ F -11 C- C F+
 Mon, Dec 22 55 Missouri W 91 - 48 85% +17  91% 9 - 3 A+ +54 A+ +30 B+ A+ C A+ +29 A+ A+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 265 Southern W 90 - 55 99% +20  99% 10 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +18 A+ A+ D- A +11 A+ C- F+
 Sat, Jan 3 109 @Penn St. W 73 - 65 91% +10  99% 11 - 3 2 - 1 A- +15 C +1 F D+ A A+ +14 A+ B- F+
 Thu, Jan 8 117 Rutgers W 81 - 55 97% +17  95% 12 - 3 3 - 1 A+ +26 A +12 A+ F A+ A+ +16 A A+ F+
 Sun, Jan 11 26 @Iowa W 75 - 69 63% +10  99% 13 - 3 4 - 1 A+ +25 A +12 A- C+ A A+ +13 A+ A D
 Wed, Jan 14 67 @Northwestern W 79 - 68 84% +5  82% 14 - 3 5 - 1 A +22 A+ +23 A A+ A C+ +2 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 17 65 Minnesota W 77 - 67 93% +2  55% 15 - 3 6 - 1 A- +15 A+ +15 B+ A+ B C+ +1 A- F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 107 Maryland W 89 - 70 96% +12  76% 16 - 3 7 - 1 A +20 A+ +17 B- A+ A+ B +4 B+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 8 @Purdue W 88 - 82 42% -3  22% 17 - 3 8 - 1 A+ +30 A+ +31 A+ A+ B C -0 D A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 45 Washington W 75 - 66 89% +5  85% 18 - 3 9 - 1 A- +17 A +14 C- A+ A+ B +5 D+ A+ C+
 Sun, Feb 1 14 @Nebraska W 78 - 69 51% +2  51% 19 - 3 10 - 1 A+ +31 A+ +24 A A- A+ A- +8 B B+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 67 Northwestern W 84 - 44 93% +26  91% 20 - 3 11 - 1 A+ +45 A+ +19 A+ A+ C+ A+ +30 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 10 @Michigan St. L 82 - 85 OT 48% +2  63% 20 - 4 11 - 2 A +19 A+ +18 C+ A- A+ C+ +2 B A F
 Tue, Feb 10 29 Wisconsin L 90 - 92 OT 83% +2  54% 20 - 5 11 - 3 B +10 A +14 A+ A- D+ D+ -4 C A- F
 Sun, Feb 15 36 Indiana W 71 - 51 84% +9  87% 21 - 5 12 - 3 A+ +31 A+ +16 B A+ A+ A+ +20 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Feb 18 49 @USC W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 39 @UCLA W 77 - 71 70%
 Fri, Feb 27 1 Michigan L 79 - 81 43%
 Tue, Mar 3 88 Oregon W 83 - 64 96%
 Sun, Mar 8 107 @Maryland W 83 - 68 92%
Totals 25 - 6 16 - 4 +22 A+ +15 A- A- B- B+ +7 B A- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A+ A- B+ B A- 35% 20% 52% B- A- A A- A+ A- C A- B- B+ B+ B+ B A- 26% 32% 42% A+ A A- A- A F+ A+ B A+
1.29 68% 45% 37% +6 +1 1.16 42% 1.2 .51 13% .31 79% .25 0.98 51% 33% 31% -5 -2 0.87 24% 0.9 .21 13% .16 70% .22
Nov
3		 Jackson St. A+ D B A+ A+ 32% 9% 59% C+ A+ A+ A A+ C- B F+ C A+ D- A A B+ 13% 42% 45% A+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ B+ B+ B+
1.50 56% 40% 52% +15 +1 1.34 58% 1.2 .72 16% .38 67% .25 0.73 63% 28% 26% -9 -5 0.75 9% 0.3 .02 15% .22 71% .15
Nov
7		 Florida Gulf Coast A+ A+ B B- A+ 38% 13% 49% B- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B A B A 20% 45% 35% A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ F B+
1.51 86% 43% 37% +13 +1 1.31 39% 1.5 .61 9% .50 88% .44 0.93 54% 30% 30% -6 -5 0.80 25% 0.5 .13 1% .16 92% .15
Nov
11		 Texas Tech A- A A- D A- 35% 25% 40% B A- A- A+ A+ C- A+ B- A+ A F F A+ C 29% 34% 37% A C+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ D+ A+
1.13 67% 46% 29% +2 -1 1.04 32% 1.3 .41 18% .39 70% .27 1.07 82% 55% 27% +9 -2 1.15 23% 0.9 .20 18% .07 75% .05
Nov
14		 Colgate B+ C+ F F F+ 25% 15% 60% C- F+ A+ B+ A+ A A A+ A+ B F C+ A C+ 19% 49% 32% A+ B+ A+ C A- F A+ F A-
1.26 62% 25% 28% -6 0 0.89 45% 1.2 .52 10% .40 88% .35 0.97 73% 39% 28% +1 -5 0.93 17% 1.0 .17 7% .15 89% .13
Nov
19		 Alabama B A- F B+ B+ 37% 18% 45% B A- B+ A A C B+ F C+ A C- B D+ C+ 26% 19% 56% A+ B A- F C+ C C B- C+
1.09 64% 18% 37% +1 0 1.03 33% 1.1 .38 14% .33 59% .19 1.14 64% 40% 37% +4 -1 1.09 28% 1.4 .39 13% .33 74% .25
Nov
22		 LIU Brooklyn A+ A+ A+ D A+ 55% 22% 24% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F B+ D- A+ A+ D D C+ 28% 30% 42% A B A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+
1.38 77% 58% 31% +13 +1 1.31 50% 1.3 .65 17% .25 73% .19 0.81 40% 44% 36% -2 -2 0.94 25% 0.6 .14 24% .13 57% .07
Nov
24		 UT Rio Grande Valley A- A+ D+ F A- 34% 11% 55% B A- C A- B B- B A+ A+ C+ B+ A+ F B- 28% 34% 38% A+ B+ B D+ C+ F C- A+ B+
1.24 94% 33% 28% +7 +1 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 16% .37 86% .32 1.04 50% 20% 45% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.1 .27 6% .24 50% .12
Nov
28		 Connecticut C- D- A+ F F+ 44% 8% 48% A D B F C- A C- A+ A A- B+ F C B+ 35% 15% 50% B- B+ C+ A+ A+ C- C C+ C+
0.92 43% 50% 20% -16 +2 0.75 31% 0.7 .21 15% .32 94% .30 1.12 56% 63% 35% +3 0 1.10 36% 0.8 .28 15% .30 71% .21
Dec
6		 Tennessee A+ B- C- B- A- 48% 6% 46% A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ D F D- A+ A+ A+ B A+ 45% 21% 34% C A+ F B C- B+ C A+ A+
1.22 58% 33% 35% 0 +3 1.08 32% 1.4 .44 10% .25 57% .14 1.01 43% 10% 31% -14 0 0.74 53% 1.0 .51 21% .37 44% .16
Dec
9		 Ohio St. A+ C- B- A+ A+ 23% 26% 51% C A+ C D D+ A A+ A+ A+ B+ D+ C+ A- A+ 24% 26% 50% B A A+ F C+ F B- A- B
1.26 55% 42% 46% +9 -2 1.17 28% 0.9 .25 13% .53 91% .48 1.15 69% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 20% 1.9 .37 9% .33 71% .24
Dec
13		 Nebraska A+ A+ A+ D- A 26% 21% 53% B+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F F+ D+ F D 27% 29% 45% A+ C- C C C F+ A+ F A
1.27 83% 50% 28% +4 -1 1.09 41% 1.5 .59 13% .36 70% .25 1.31 73% 38% 44% +11 -2 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 10% .14 88% .12
Dec
22		 Missouri A+ B+ C A- A- 18% 25% 57% D+ B+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ 28% 32% 40% A+ A+ A A+ A+ D+ A C+ A-
1.46 63% 36% 40% +6 -2 1.09 56% 1.9 1.07 18% .39 80% .31 0.77 38% 20% 32% -13 -2 0.72 30% 0.4 .13 16% .29 67% .19
Dec
29		 Southern A+ A+ F A+ A+ 30% 11% 59% B- A+ A+ C+ A+ D- C- A+ B+ A B- A+ A+ A+ 31% 44% 25% A+ A+ C- C C- F+ A+ F+ A+
1.39 93% 20% 44% +18 +1 1.39 55% 1.1 .62 22% .36 89% .32 0.85 53% 21% 21% -14 -4 0.67 31% 1.0 .31 12% .14 75% .11
Jan
3		 Penn St. C B- F F F 33% 16% 51% C F B+ F D+ A A+ A A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 28% 14% 58% B- A+ C+ B B- F+ A A+ A+
1.08 63% 25% 24% -8 0 0.86 36% 0.9 .33 15% .49 82% .40 0.96 44% 38% 24% -12 0 0.77 29% 1.1 .33 10% .23 64% .15
Jan
8		 Rutgers A C+ A+ B+ A+ 31% 16% 53% C+ A+ C+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B- B+ 18% 48% 34% A+ A A+ B+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+
1.26 60% 75% 38% +10 0 1.22 34% 0.3 .11 11% .37 86% .31 0.85 30% 37% 32% -7 -5 0.79 21% 1.0 .21 11% .14 38% .05
Jan
11		 Iowa A B+ F C+ B+ 46% 8% 46% A A- B- D+ C+ A F A+ F+ A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ 32% 21% 46% A- A+ A A- A D A+ F A+
1.14 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.12 30% 0.9 .27 18% .20 82% .17 1.04 67% 25% 31% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 12% .10 100% .10
Jan
14		 Northwestern A+ C- A+ A A+ 27% 16% 57% C A A+ A+ A+ A F A+ D- C+ A+ B+ B- A+ 21% 28% 51% A+ A+ F F F C- C+ F D
1.33 54% 50% 39% +5 0 1.12 45% 1.4 .61 13% .16 100% .16 1.14 11% 33% 32% -13 -2 0.72 41% 1.7 .69 12% .32 88% .29
Jan
17		 Minnesota A+ C+ A+ B- B+ 22% 22% 57% C- B+ A+ B A+ B A+ A+ A+ C+ F A+ C+ B 19% 30% 52% A+ A- C F F+ F A+ F A+
1.25 60% 50% 35% +4 -1 1.07 46% 0.9 .43 16% .37 84% .31 1.09 80% 25% 32% -1 -3 0.94 31% 1.4 .42 11% .05 100% .05
Jan
21		 Maryland A+ C- A+ C+ B 17% 19% 64% D- B- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B F B+ A- C+ 15% 36% 49% A+ B+ A+ F B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.31 56% 50% 35% +3 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .49 10% .46 71% .33 1.03 78% 33% 28% -3 -4 0.88 22% 1.4 .32 7% .25 50% .13
Jan
24		 Purdue A+ F A+ A+ A+ 17% 12% 71% B A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ C F F F+ F+ 33% 36% 31% A+ D A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A
1.39 29% 60% 50% +15 0 1.31 45% 1.4 .62 16% .41 73% .30 1.29 78% 55% 41% +16 -2 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 5% .18 82% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Washington A D+ A+ F D 38% 10% 52% A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ B- F+ C B F F C+ F+ 21% 40% 38% A+ D+ C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F A
1.23 53% 60% 23% -8 +1 0.88 38% 1.7 .65 8% .28 63% .18 1.08 80% 53% 33% +10 -4 1.15 35% 0.4 .13 16% .16 100% .16
Feb
1		 Nebraska A+ A+ D- D+ A 29% 15% 56% A A A B- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A- F B- 21% 21% 58% A+ B A+ F B+ C- A+ D A+
1.23 86% 29% 30% +3 0 1.08 34% 0.9 .31 13% .47 81% .38 1.09 45% 27% 45% +5 -1 1.09 17% 1.3 .23 13% .09 80% .07
Feb
4		 Northwestern A+ A+ F A+ A+ 21% 8% 71% B- A+ A- A+ A+ C+ C- A C+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 22% 37% 41% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+
1.33 70% 25% 44% +12 0 1.27 39% 1.3 .50 17% .27 79% .21 0.70 46% 36% 17% -14 -3 0.68 13% 0.3 .04 2% .06 50% .03
Feb
7		 Michigan St. A+ C+ F D+ C 30% 16% 54% B- C+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C D C C+ 29% 41% 30% A+ B C+ A+ A F C- F D-
1.15 56% 20% 30% -7 0 0.89 31% 0.8 .25 6% .36 83% .30 1.19 63% 43% 35% +4 -3 1.04 39% 0.8 .32 11% .36 87% .32
Feb
10		 Wisconsin A A+ D- A+ A+ 25% 16% 58% B- A+ B- A+ A- D+ B+ F C D+ C- A+ F C- 29% 21% 50% A C C A+ A- F A+ B+ A+
1.23 79% 33% 44% +13 0 1.27 28% 1.3 .34 18% .31 58% .18 1.25 63% 21% 45% +7 -1 1.14 32% 0.9 .27 5% .20 71% .14
Feb
15		 Indiana A+ A+ C F B- 34% 15% 51% B+ B A+ B- A+ A+ F A+ F A+ C- C A+ A+ 24% 29% 47% A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ B- A+ D- A+
1.25 67% 38% 26% -3 0 0.96 42% 1.1 .47 4% .13 86% .11 0.90 64% 46% 24% -3 -2 0.91 15% 1.3 .19 16% .13 83% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.9 8.1 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 14.4 42.5 13.7 71.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 10.4 13.1 3rd
4th 0.2 3.3 2.1 5.5 4th
5th 0.4 0.6 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.8 7.1 26.8 43.4 21.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 37.2% 8.1    1.1 7.0
16-4 2.1% 0.9    0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 9.0% 9.0 1.1 7.5 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 21.8% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 1.7 9.1 10.0 2.5 0.2 100.0%
16-4 43.4% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 2.2 9.4 19.7 11.9 2.4 0.1 100.0%
15-5 26.8% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 2.7 2.5 8.4 10.6 4.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.1% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 3.4 0.2 1.1 2.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 100.0%
13-7 0.8% 100.0% 9.9% 90.1% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 2.3 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 100.0% 1.4 63.5 34.6 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.9% 100.0% 1.6 45.1 47.2 7.6 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.2% 100.0% 1.9 31.6 50.7 16.9 0.8