Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.0#10
Expected Predictive Rating+17.2#23
Pace69.6#186
Improvement+1.5#86

Offense
Total Offense+12.7#5
First Shot+8.3#17
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#9
Layup/Dunks+1.7#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#56
Freethrows+2.3#59
Improvement+2.0#48

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#23
First Shot+5.9#35
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#72
Layups/Dunks+8.1#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#361
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
Freethrows+3.4#19
Improvement-0.6#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 1.3% 0.6%
#1 Seed 8.3% 8.3% 4.2%
Top 2 Seed 24.0% 24.1% 12.0%
Top 4 Seed 64.8% 64.9% 42.2%
Top 6 Seed 88.4% 88.5% 68.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.3% 99.4% 94.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.3% 93.3%
Average Seed 4.0 4.0 5.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 98.3% 91.0%
Conference Champion 8.5% 8.6% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 2.4%
First Round99.2% 99.2% 94.0%
Second Round89.0% 89.1% 75.3%
Sweet Sixteen58.1% 58.1% 41.6%
Elite Eight30.4% 30.5% 18.1%
Final Four15.1% 15.1% 5.4%
Championship Game7.2% 7.2% 2.4%
National Champion3.2% 3.2% 1.8%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 19 - 8
Quad 26 - 114 - 9
Quad 34 - 019 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 328 Jackson St. W 113-55 99%     1 - 0 +45.1 +27.2 +13.7
  Fri, Nov 7 188 Florida Gulf Coast W 113-70 98%     2 - 0 +38.2 +28.5 +6.9
  Tue, Nov 11 23 Texas Tech W 81-77 76%     3 - 0 +16.7 +10.1 +6.5
  Fri, Nov 14 199 Colgate W 84-65 98%     4 - 0 +13.5 +11.8 +2.6
  Wed, Nov 19 15 Alabama L 86-90 59%     4 - 1 +13.5 +8.5 +5.5
  Sat, Nov 22 208 LIU Brooklyn W 98-58 98%     5 - 1 +34.0 +20.2 +13.1
  Mon, Nov 24 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-73 98%     6 - 1 +9.0 +12.8 -3.8
  Fri, Nov 28 7 Connecticut L 61-74 44%     6 - 2 +8.4 +3.2 +4.5
  Sat, Dec 6 14 Tennessee W 75-62 59%     7 - 2 +30.6 +22.0 +10.4
  Tue, Dec 9 31 @Ohio St. W 88-80 61%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +25.1 +22.5 +2.7
  Sat, Dec 13 26 Nebraska L 80-83 78%     8 - 3 1 - 1 +9.0 +21.2 -12.5
  Mon, Dec 22 60 Missouri W 91-48 85%     9 - 3 +51.8 +31.2 +26.0
  Mon, Dec 29 222 Southern W 93-66 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 125 Penn St. W 88-70 95%    
  Thu, Jan 8 146 Rutgers W 85-63 98%    
  Sun, Jan 11 18 @Iowa W 73-72 51%    
  Wed, Jan 14 57 @Northwestern W 81-73 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 95 Minnesota W 80-63 94%    
  Wed, Jan 21 92 Maryland W 86-69 94%    
  Sat, Jan 24 6 @Purdue L 74-79 33%    
  Thu, Jan 29 48 Washington W 83-71 87%    
  Sun, Feb 1 26 @Nebraska W 78-76 57%    
  Wed, Feb 4 57 Northwestern W 84-70 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 16 @Michigan St. L 72-73 48%    
  Tue, Feb 10 47 Wisconsin W 85-73 86%    
  Sun, Feb 15 29 Indiana W 81-73 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 39 @USC W 83-79 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 30 @UCLA W 77-74 59%    
  Fri, Feb 27 1 Michigan L 79-83 36%    
  Tue, Mar 3 55 Oregon W 85-71 89%    
  Sun, Mar 8 92 @Maryland W 83-72 84%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.4 2.6 0.7 8.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.3 8.4 4.7 0.8 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 6.7 9.7 4.7 0.7 0.0 23.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.0 7.7 3.3 0.3 0.0 17.0 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 5.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.6 9.9 14.9 18.6 18.9 14.9 8.8 3.4 0.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
18-2 76.0% 2.6    1.6 1.0 0.1
17-3 38.8% 3.4    1.2 1.7 0.5 0.0
16-4 10.1% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 3.7 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.4% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 8.8% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 1.9 2.8 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.9% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2.5 2.1 5.2 5.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 18.9% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 3.2 1.0 3.6 6.9 5.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 18.6% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 4.0 0.2 1.1 4.5 6.8 4.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.9% 99.8% 6.3% 93.6% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 4.7 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 9.9% 99.7% 4.0% 95.7% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-9 5.6% 99.2% 2.6% 96.6% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
10-10 2.6% 96.8% 2.6% 94.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.7%
9-11 1.2% 83.0% 1.6% 81.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 82.7%
8-12 0.4% 60.0% 60.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 60.0%
7-13 0.1% 21.2% 21.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 21.2%
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.3% 11.4% 87.9% 4.0 8.3 15.7 20.7 20.1 14.1 9.4 5.7 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.7 99.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.9 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 75.4 23.1 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 57.4 36.2 6.4