Illinois
Big Ten
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#10
Expected Predictive Rating+17.6#16
Pace80.5#8
Improvement+0.2#41

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#29
First Shot+7.9#17
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#240
Layup/Dunks+2.8#85
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#141
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#28
Freethrows-0.8#226
Improvement-0.1#239

Defense
Total Defense+10.5#5
First Shot+9.4#9
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#119
Layups/Dunks+8.5#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#65
Freethrows+1.0#134
Improvement+0.4#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 3.8% 0.9%
#1 Seed 9.8% 17.1% 5.1%
Top 2 Seed 23.4% 36.7% 14.9%
Top 4 Seed 55.7% 71.7% 45.3%
Top 6 Seed 78.7% 89.9% 71.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.7% 98.9% 93.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.0% 98.7% 92.7%
Average Seed 4.3 3.5 4.9
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 98.7% 93.3%
Conference Champion 22.0% 35.3% 13.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.5% 0.6% 2.0%
First Round95.2% 98.7% 92.8%
Second Round79.1% 86.5% 74.3%
Sweet Sixteen49.3% 58.4% 43.4%
Elite Eight27.2% 34.2% 22.6%
Final Four14.5% 18.9% 11.7%
Championship Game7.6% 10.4% 5.8%
National Champion3.6% 5.3% 2.5%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 39.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 17 - 6
Quad 26 - 113 - 8
Quad 34 - 017 - 8
Quad 47 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 356   Eastern Illinois W 87-57 99.6%    1 - 0 +12.1 +0.0 +9.8
  Nov 11, 2022 281   UMKC W 86-48 98%     2 - 0 +28.9 +4.3 +22.1
  Nov 14, 2022 329   Monmouth W 103-65 99%     3 - 0 +23.8 +13.0 +6.7
  Nov 18, 2022 9   UCLA W 79-70 50%     4 - 0 +26.5 +6.8 +18.9
  Nov 20, 2022 14   Virginia L 61-70 54%     4 - 1 +7.5 -1.3 +8.3
  Nov 25, 2022 333   Lindenwood W 92-59 99%     5 - 1 +18.2 +3.7 +11.4
  Nov 29, 2022 97   Syracuse W 73-44 92%     6 - 1 +31.1 +3.3 +29.0
  Dec 02, 2022 12   @ Maryland L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 06, 2022 4   Texas L 72-74 43%    
  Dec 10, 2022 43   Penn St. W 77-67 84%    
  Dec 17, 2022 344   Alabama A&M W 95-62 99.9%   
  Dec 22, 2022 48   Missouri W 88-80 76%    
  Dec 29, 2022 352   Bethune-Cookman W 89-54 99.9%   
  Jan 04, 2023 90   @ Northwestern W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 07, 2023 35   Wisconsin W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 10, 2023 92   @ Nebraska W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 13, 2023 37   Michigan St. W 77-67 81%    
  Jan 16, 2023 166   @ Minnesota W 74-60 90%    
  Jan 19, 2023 7   Indiana W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 24, 2023 23   Ohio St. W 80-74 72%    
  Jan 28, 2023 35   @ Wisconsin W 69-66 62%    
  Jan 31, 2023 92   Nebraska W 80-65 91%    
  Feb 04, 2023 24   @ Iowa W 82-81 52%    
  Feb 07, 2023 166   Minnesota W 77-57 97%    
  Feb 11, 2023 39   Rutgers W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 14, 2023 43   @ Penn St. W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 18, 2023 7   @ Indiana L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 23, 2023 90   Northwestern W 74-59 90%    
  Feb 26, 2023 23   @ Ohio St. W 77-76 52%    
  Mar 02, 2023 58   Michigan W 81-70 84%    
  Mar 05, 2023 3   @ Purdue L 71-76 32%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.6 6.5 4.7 2.1 0.4 22.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.9 6.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.0 4.8 1.2 0.1 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.9 3.6 0.8 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.5 4.2 7.0 10.4 13.2 15.1 15.8 13.3 9.0 5.1 2.1 0.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 99.5% 2.1    2.0 0.1 0.0
18-2 91.7% 4.7    3.9 0.8 0.0
17-3 72.6% 6.5    4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 41.8% 5.6    2.4 2.3 0.8 0.1
15-5 14.9% 2.4    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.0% 22.0 13.3 6.5 1.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 32.6% 67.4% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.1% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.6 2.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.0% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 1.9 3.1 3.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.3% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 2.6 1.6 4.3 5.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.8% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.4 0.5 2.3 5.9 4.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.1% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 4.3 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.1 4.1 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.2% 99.7% 11.1% 88.6% 5.3 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.2 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 10.4% 98.6% 8.4% 90.1% 6.4 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.0 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
11-9 7.0% 93.6% 7.3% 86.4% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 93.1%
10-10 4.2% 83.0% 7.0% 76.0% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 81.7%
9-11 2.5% 52.1% 5.9% 46.2% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 49.1%
8-12 1.1% 22.5% 5.9% 16.6% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 17.6%
7-13 0.6% 8.1% 6.1% 2.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2%
6-14 0.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.1% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.7% 14.0% 81.7% 4.3 9.8 13.6 17.0 15.3 13.0 10.1 6.8 4.2 2.4 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 95.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 83.6 16.4