Arkansas
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#21
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#51
Pace73.4#55
Improvement-1.6#337

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#57
First Shot+6.2#34
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#274
Layup/Dunks+7.4#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#322
Freethrows+3.0#17
Improvement-0.8#304

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#12
First Shot+6.0#30
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#10
Layups/Dunks+2.0#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#6
Freethrows-1.4#283
Improvement-0.8#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.6% 6.0% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 17.1% 21.2% 7.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.8% 78.7% 58.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.9% 76.3% 54.8%
Average Seed 8.1 7.9 8.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 72.7% 39.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.0% 9.8% 13.8%
First Round68.4% 74.8% 52.8%
Second Round42.3% 47.1% 30.8%
Sweet Sixteen18.2% 21.0% 11.5%
Elite Eight8.6% 9.8% 5.7%
Final Four3.5% 4.3% 1.8%
Championship Game1.6% 1.9% 0.9%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.5%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Home) - 70.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 8
Quad 25 - 28 - 10
Quad 37 - 115 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 242   North Dakota St. W 76-58 96%     1 - 0 +11.2 -5.2 +15.5
  Nov 11, 2022 143   Fordham W 74-48 91%     2 - 0 +24.7 +0.8 +23.0
  Nov 16, 2022 200   South Dakota St. W 71-56 94%     3 - 0 +10.7 -10.8 +19.8
  Nov 21, 2022 261   Louisville W 80-54 95%     4 - 0 +20.8 +5.3 +15.4
  Nov 22, 2022 11   Creighton L 87-90 42%     4 - 1 +12.6 +13.0 -0.1
  Nov 23, 2022 28   San Diego St. W 78-74 OT 54%     5 - 1 +16.6 -0.2 +16.2
  Nov 28, 2022 149   Troy W 74-61 92%     6 - 1 +11.2 +4.7 +7.1
  Dec 03, 2022 119   San Jose St. W 99-58 89%     7 - 1 +41.1 +23.0 +17.4
  Dec 06, 2022 139   UNC Greensboro W 65-58 91%     8 - 1 +6.0 -6.8 +12.5
  Dec 10, 2022 41   Oklahoma W 88-78 60%     9 - 1 +20.9 +22.1 -1.0
  Dec 17, 2022 92   Bradley W 76-57 85%     10 - 1 +21.7 +4.1 +17.2
  Dec 21, 2022 189   UNC Asheville W 85-51 94%     11 - 1 +30.2 +11.3 +19.1
  Dec 28, 2022 107   @ LSU L 57-60 75%     11 - 2 0 - 1 +3.5 -9.9 +13.3
  Jan 04, 2023 51   Missouri W 74-68 73%     12 - 2 1 - 1 +13.2 +4.4 +9.2
  Jan 07, 2023 30   @ Auburn L 59-72 44%     12 - 3 1 - 2 +2.2 -2.3 +4.0
  Jan 11, 2023 4   Alabama L 69-84 44%     12 - 4 1 - 3 +0.1 -1.4 +2.8
  Jan 14, 2023 85   @ Vanderbilt L 84-97 68%     12 - 5 1 - 4 -4.4 +15.0 -19.6
  Jan 18, 2023 51   @ Missouri L 76-79 54%     12 - 6 1 - 5 +9.5 +2.7 +6.9
  Jan 21, 2023 96   Mississippi W 69-57 85%     13 - 6 2 - 5 +14.5 +0.6 +14.3
  Jan 24, 2023 107   LSU W 60-40 87%     14 - 6 3 - 5 +21.1 -3.9 +27.6
  Jan 28, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 64-67 35%     14 - 7 +14.5 +3.3 +10.9
  Jan 31, 2023 40   Texas A&M W 73-68 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 225   @ South Carolina W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 07, 2023 32   @ Kentucky L 70-71 44%    
  Feb 11, 2023 56   Mississippi St. W 67-60 75%    
  Feb 15, 2023 40   @ Texas A&M L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 18, 2023 44   Florida W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 21, 2023 102   Georgia W 77-65 87%    
  Feb 25, 2023 4   @ Alabama L 73-80 26%    
  Feb 28, 2023 1   @ Tennessee L 63-72 20%    
  Mar 04, 2023 32   Kentucky W 73-69 66%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.2 0.2 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 2.2 0.3 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 4.9 1.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 7.8 3.4 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.3 6.7 8.0 0.7 0.0 15.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.9 12.2 3.3 0.1 19.6 7th
8th 0.0 2.1 10.4 5.9 0.3 18.7 8th
9th 0.6 5.1 5.2 0.4 11.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 3.6 0.8 6.2 10th
11th 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.9 11.5 20.6 26.3 21.7 11.0 3.5 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 3.5% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 3.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.0% 98.9% 13.8% 85.1% 5.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 3.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
10-8 21.7% 95.4% 11.5% 83.9% 7.5 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.9 5.6 3.2 1.3 0.1 1.0 94.8%
9-9 26.3% 85.7% 8.7% 77.1% 9.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.7 7.0 6.5 2.1 0.0 3.8 84.4%
8-10 20.6% 56.8% 9.0% 47.8% 10.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.7 5.3 0.3 8.9 52.6%
7-11 11.5% 23.6% 6.5% 17.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 8.8 18.3%
6-12 3.9% 6.2% 4.7% 1.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 1.6%
5-13 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 72.8% 9.6% 63.2% 8.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.8 4.9 7.6 9.9 11.1 11.5 12.7 9.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 27.2 69.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.8 42.9 38.8 14.3 4.1