Arkansas
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#24
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#15
Pace78.6#23
Improvement+0.5#138

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#27
First Shot+0.4#169
After Offensive Rebound+6.6#1
Layup/Dunks+2.9#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#310
Freethrows+2.9#29
Improvement-1.0#279

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#33
First Shot+3.5#71
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#32
Layups/Dunks+5.1#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#332
Freethrows+1.9#76
Improvement+1.5#58
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.2% 4.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 10.2% 10.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 27.3% 27.3% 23.2%
Top 6 Seed 45.5% 45.5% 30.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.9% 83.0% 61.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.2% 81.3% 61.3%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 6.3
.500 or above 99.2% 99.3% 84.5%
.500 or above in Conference 81.3% 81.3% 69.0%
Conference Champion 11.4% 11.4% 16.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Four3.8% 3.8% 1.4%
First Round81.0% 81.0% 60.6%
Second Round55.2% 55.2% 45.8%
Sweet Sixteen27.7% 27.7% 29.6%
Elite Eight12.2% 12.3% 0.0%
Final Four5.4% 5.4% 0.0%
Championship Game2.4% 2.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 8
Quad 36 - 117 - 9
Quad 47 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 196   Mercer W 74-61 94%     1 - 0 +8.5 -0.3 +9.0
  Nov 13, 2021 190   Gardner-Webb W 86-69 94%     2 - 0 +12.7 +10.7 +2.0
  Nov 17, 2021 112   Northern Iowa W 93-80 88%     3 - 0 +13.6 +12.0 +0.6
  Nov 22, 2021 91   Kansas St. W 72-64 77%     4 - 0 +13.9 +1.7 +11.9
  Nov 23, 2021 55   Cincinnati W 73-67 69%     5 - 0 +14.3 +3.2 +10.7
  Nov 28, 2021 189   Penn W 76-60 94%     6 - 0 +11.7 -3.9 +14.7
  Dec 01, 2021 340   Central Arkansas W 94-65 99.7%   
  Dec 04, 2021 289   Arkansas Little Rock W 88-65 99%    
  Dec 07, 2021 223   Charlotte W 81-62 96%    
  Dec 11, 2021 35   Oklahoma W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 18, 2021 133   Hofstra W 86-72 90%    
  Dec 21, 2021 273   Elon W 89-66 98%    
  Dec 29, 2021 38   @ Mississippi St. L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 04, 2022 77   Vanderbilt W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 08, 2022 80   @ Texas A&M W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 12, 2022 132   Missouri W 80-66 90%    
  Jan 15, 2022 10   @ LSU L 75-81 29%    
  Jan 18, 2022 98   South Carolina W 85-73 84%    
  Jan 22, 2022 80   Texas A&M W 76-66 80%    
  Jan 26, 2022 69   @ Mississippi W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 45   West Virginia W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 02, 2022 159   @ Georgia W 82-72 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 38   Mississippi St. W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 08, 2022 21   Auburn W 81-78 58%    
  Feb 12, 2022 13   @ Alabama L 80-85 33%    
  Feb 15, 2022 132   @ Missouri W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 19, 2022 18   Tennessee W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 22, 2022 14   @ Florida L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 12   Kentucky W 77-76 54%    
  Mar 02, 2022 10   LSU W 79-78 50%    
  Mar 05, 2022 18   @ Tennessee L 73-77 38%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.1 3.1 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.1 11.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 4.5 3.8 1.4 0.3 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.6 1.1 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.7 4.6 5.5 1.2 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 5.4 1.4 0.2 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 6.0 2.2 0.2 10.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.7 2.9 0.4 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.4 0.4 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.3 2.0 2.8 0.9 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.2 5.2 7.9 11.6 13.3 13.8 14.2 11.6 8.0 5.3 2.5 0.9 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.0
16-2 89.1% 2.2    1.9 0.3 0.0
15-3 73.4% 3.9    2.5 1.2 0.2
14-4 38.2% 3.1    1.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.5% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 6.4 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 5.4% 94.6% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.5% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.3% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 2.3 1.3 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.0% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 3.2 0.6 1.9 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 11.6% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 4.3 0.3 0.9 2.5 3.0 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.2% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 5.6 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.0 2.6 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.8% 98.1% 7.7% 90.4% 6.8 0.3 0.6 2.3 2.6 3.2 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.9%
10-8 13.3% 93.2% 3.0% 90.3% 8.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 2.7 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.9 93.0%
9-9 11.6% 81.2% 2.1% 79.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.4 2.2 80.8%
8-10 7.9% 49.6% 0.8% 48.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.0 49.2%
7-11 5.2% 16.4% 1.5% 14.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 15.1%
6-12 3.2% 6.3% 0.6% 5.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0 5.7%
5-13 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 1.6 0.1%
4-14 0.5% 3.7% 3.7% 14.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 82.9% 9.1% 73.8% 6.1 4.2 6.1 7.9 9.1 9.6 8.6 10.3 8.5 7.0 5.6 4.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 17.1 81.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0