Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#24
Expected Predictive Rating+16.7#25
Pace75.3#43
Improvement+1.9#77

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#15
First Shot+7.2#24
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#35
Layup/Dunks+2.9#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#110
Freethrows+2.8#35
Improvement+3.5#6

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#46
First Shot+8.3#11
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#346
Layups/Dunks-0.7#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#60
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#38
Freethrows+3.1#24
Improvement-1.6#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 3.4% 5.0% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 23.1% 30.7% 14.5%
Top 6 Seed 52.5% 63.3% 40.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.8% 93.9% 83.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.0% 93.4% 82.1%
Average Seed 6.1 5.7 6.7
.500 or above 97.2% 98.9% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 76.8% 85.7% 66.6%
Conference Champion 8.6% 12.7% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four4.7% 3.0% 6.6%
First Round86.7% 92.6% 80.0%
Second Round61.8% 69.0% 53.6%
Sweet Sixteen26.8% 31.7% 21.3%
Elite Eight9.8% 11.9% 7.5%
Final Four3.5% 4.2% 2.6%
Championship Game1.1% 1.5% 0.7%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Tennessee (Home) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 24 - 112 - 11
Quad 32 - 014 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 235 Southern W 109-77 97%     1 - 0 +24.9 +18.7 +1.8
  Sat, Nov 8 17 @Michigan St. L 66-69 32%     1 - 1 +17.3 +6.8 +10.4
  Tue, Nov 11 281 Central Arkansas W 93-56 98%     2 - 1 +27.5 +11.9 +13.5
  Fri, Nov 14 231 Samford W 79-75 97%     3 - 1 -3.0 -0.5 -2.6
  Tue, Nov 18 132 Winthrop W 84-83 93%     4 - 1 -0.2 +5.9 -6.1
  Fri, Nov 21 335 Jackson St. W 115-61 99%     5 - 1 +40.4 +27.3 +8.7
  Thu, Nov 27 6 Duke L 71-80 26%     5 - 2 +12.9 +9.2 +3.7
  Wed, Dec 3 13 Louisville W 89-80 52%     6 - 2 +24.0 +14.9 +8.4
  Sat, Dec 6 183 Fresno St. W 82-58 96%     7 - 2 +19.5 +3.7 +14.7
  Sat, Dec 13 22 Texas Tech W 93-86 48%     8 - 2 +22.9 +30.7 -7.4
  Tue, Dec 16 233 Queens W 108-80 97%     9 - 2 +20.9 +13.4 +4.1
  Sat, Dec 20 11 Houston L 85-94 35%     9 - 3 +10.2 +18.0 -7.4
  Mon, Dec 29 203 James Madison W 103-74 96%     10 - 3 +23.2 +24.5 -1.3
  Sat, Jan 3 15 Tennessee W 77-76 53%    
  Wed, Jan 7 60 @Mississippi W 78-75 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 31 @Auburn L 81-83 44%    
  Wed, Jan 14 90 South Carolina W 83-71 87%    
  Sat, Jan 17 23 @Georgia L 88-91 37%    
  Tue, Jan 20 8 Vanderbilt L 83-85 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 39 LSU W 84-79 69%    
  Tue, Jan 27 45 @Oklahoma W 82-81 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 20 Kentucky W 82-80 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 72 @Mississippi St. W 82-77 67%    
  Tue, Feb 10 39 @LSU L 81-82 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 31 Auburn W 84-80 65%    
  Tue, Feb 17 12 @Alabama L 88-94 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 61 Missouri W 88-78 81%    
  Wed, Feb 25 43 Texas A&M W 90-83 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 14 @Florida L 78-84 30%    
  Wed, Mar 4 42 Texas W 85-79 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 61 @Missouri W 85-81 62%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 8.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 4.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 5.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.8 4.4 0.8 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 5.7 1.4 0.1 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.3 2.4 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.6 4.2 0.5 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 4.7 1.4 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.4 3.4 2.7 0.1 6.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.3 0.1 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.2 3.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.6 9.7 13.1 14.7 15.2 12.9 9.7 6.2 3.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 95.4% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
15-3 75.7% 2.5    1.6 0.8 0.1
14-4 46.6% 2.9    1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1
13-5 14.0% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 4.2 2.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 2.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.2% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 2.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.3% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 2.9 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 100.0%
14-4 6.2% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 3.5 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.2 0.8 0.1 100.0%
13-5 9.7% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 4.2 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
12-6 12.9% 100.0% 9.7% 90.2% 5.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.7 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.2% 99.9% 6.4% 93.5% 5.8 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 5.1 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 14.7% 99.6% 3.9% 95.7% 6.7 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.1 4.6 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.6%
9-9 13.1% 97.4% 1.9% 95.5% 7.8 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.2 4.1 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.3 97.4%
8-10 9.7% 85.3% 1.6% 83.7% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.5 1.5 0.0 1.4 85.1%
7-11 6.6% 54.6% 0.8% 53.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.1 0.1 3.0 54.2%
6-12 3.9% 14.4% 0.5% 13.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.4 14.0%
5-13 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.5%
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 88.8% 6.5% 82.3% 6.1 0.7 2.7 8.0 11.7 14.7 14.7 12.3 9.1 6.1 4.5 4.1 0.2 11.2 88.0%