Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.5 17
Expected Predictive Rating +18.3 19
Pace 74.7 40
Improvement +2.9 78

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 5 A A A C+ C+
Defense B+ 42 A- D+ C+ A- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 44 A 70% 5 +8.3 8
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 162 C+ 40% 112 +0.4 151
Three Pointers 35% 294 A- 39% 11 +0.0 173
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 139 A +8.1 8
1st FG Attempt A 1.19 10
Second Chance B 34.6% 64 A 1.27 5 A 0.44 14
Turnovers A 12.0% 3
Freethrows C+ 0.32 145 B- 75% 100 C+ 0.24 118
Total Offense A +12.6 5

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 85 A 5.1% 3
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 34% 61 A- 1.3% 9
Three Pointers C- 82% 231 B 0.3% 49
Total C+ 59% 114 A+ 2.6% 3

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 177 B- 54% 78 -1.5 122
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 102 B- 35% 76 +0.2 204
Three Pointers 38% 255 A 27% 1 -5.3 8
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 122 A- -6.2 14
1st FG Attempt A- 0.89 21
Second Chance C+ 28.7% 107 F+ 1.21 352 D+ 0.35 268
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 114
Freethrows B+ 0.25 26 A- 68% 17 A- 0.17 16
Total Defense B+ +5.9 42

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 52% 244 A- 17.6% 24
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 80 B+ 8.1% 40
Three Pointers B+ 77% 231 B+ 1.9% 49
Total B- 52% 101 A 9.4% 12

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.8 10 18.5 330
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.32 3 0.14 67
Improvement +2.7 #65 +0.2 #176

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 2 Seed 5% 6% 1%
Top 4 Seed 40% 44% 22%
Top 6 Seed 90% 92% 79%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 4.8 4.7 5.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 8% 9% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round87% 88% 80%
Sweet Sixteen46% 48% 38%
Elite Eight19% 20% 14%
Final Four8% 8% 5%
Championship Game3% 3% 2%
National Champion1% 1% 1%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 84.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 17 - 8
Quad 27 - 114 - 10
Quad 34 - 018 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 265 Southern W 109 - 77 99% +21  96% 1 - 0 A+ +23 A+ +15 C+ B A+ B +4 B- F+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 11 @Michigan St. L 66 - 69 35% -2  25% 1 - 1 A +19 B- +5 C A+ D- A+ +14 A+ C- B+
 Tue, Nov 11 184 Central Arkansas W 93 - 56 97% +16  98% 2 - 1 A+ +32 A- +10 A- C- A+ A+ +20 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 187 Samford W 79 - 75 97% +8  97% 3 - 1 C -1 D+ -3 C F+ C+ C+ +2 C+ C D
 Tue, Nov 18 130 Winthrop W 84 - 83 95% +1  50% 4 - 1 C -0 B- +5 C A A- D -5 D+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 331 Jackson St. W 115 - 61 99% +30  90% 5 - 1 A+ +40 A+ +22 A+ A A+ A+ +13 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 2 Duke L 71 - 80 29% -1  45% 5 - 2 A- +15 B+ +8 B+ A- B+ A- +7 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 12 Louisville W 89 - 80 59% +10  99% 6 - 2 A+ +25 A +13 D+ A+ A A+ +11 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 136 Fresno St. W 82 - 58 96% +15  95% 7 - 2 A +23 B- +4 A- D+ A+ A+ +17 A+ B A
 Sat, Dec 13 18 Texas Tech W 93 - 86 50% -2  17% 8 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +31 A+ A+ A+ D -5 B- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 205 Queens W 108 - 80 98% +20  90% 9 - 2 A +22 A +12 A A+ D A- +7 A F+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 6 Houston L 85 - 94 35% -10  3% 9 - 3 B+ +13 A+ +16 A+ A+ A+ C- -3 D F C+
 Mon, Dec 29 207 James Madison W 103 - 74 98% +17  89% 10 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +24 A+ A+ A- C -0 C- D B+
 Sat, Jan 3 16 Tennessee W 86 - 75 61% +1  51% 11 - 3 1 - 0 A+ +27 A +13 B- A+ C- A+ +12 A- A- C+
 Wed, Jan 7 72 @Mississippi W 94 - 87 76% +7  94% 12 - 3 2 - 0 A +18 A+ +21 A+ A- B+ D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 33 @Auburn L 73 - 95 54% -15  5% 12 - 4 2 - 1 C- -5 C +0 C D+ B+ D+ -4 F+ F C+
 Wed, Jan 14 94 South Carolina W 108 - 74 92% +18  95% 13 - 4 3 - 1 A+ +37 A+ +30 A+ A+ A+ B+ +5 B- C- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 37 @Georgia L 76 - 90 55% -10  0% 13 - 5 3 - 2 C+ +3 D -5 D- A+ D+ A +10 B- C- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 14 Vanderbilt W 93 - 68 60% +15  96% 14 - 5 4 - 2 A+ +41 A+ +28 A+ A+ A+ A+ +14 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 24 54 LSU W 85 - 81 85% -1  27% 15 - 5 5 - 2 B +11 A +13 A+ C A C -1 A+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 27 51 @Oklahoma W 83 - 79 68% -2  29% 16 - 5 6 - 2 A- +18 A +12 B A- A+ B+ +6 B+ C- A-
 Sat, Jan 31 25 Kentucky L 77 - 85 71% -5  10% 16 - 6 6 - 3 C+ +5 A- +11 A+ C A+ D -6 D- B F+
 Sat, Feb 7 68 @Mississippi St. W 88 - 68 76% +12  88% 17 - 6 7 - 3 A+ +31 A+ +18 A+ B A- A+ +13 A- B+ C+
 Tue, Feb 10 54 @LSU W 91 - 62 70% +18  99% 18 - 6 8 - 3 A+ +42 A+ +14 A B B A+ +26 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 33 Auburn W 88 - 75 75% +8  85% 19 - 6 9 - 3 A+ +24 A+ +18 A+ A A+ A- +7 A+ B- D-
 Wed, Feb 18 19 @Alabama L 115 - 117 2OT 39% +4  60% 19 - 7 9 - 4 A +19 A+ +23 A+ A+ A+ C- -3 F+ B- B-
 Sat, Feb 21 49 Missouri W 87 - 76 84%
 Wed, Feb 25 35 Texas A&M W 90 - 83 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 4 @Florida L 79 - 87 24%
 Wed, Mar 4 27 Texas W 88 - 82 72%
 Sat, Mar 7 49 @Missouri W 84 - 79 67%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +19 A +13 A+ A C+ B+ +6 A- B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A C+ A- A 44% 39% 35% C+ A B A A A C+ B- C+ B+ B- B- A A- 39% 23% 38% C+ A- C+ F+ D+ C+ B+ A- A-
1.27 70% 40% 39% +8 0 1.19 35% 1.3 .44 12% .32 75% .24 1.00 54% 35% 27% -6 0 0.89 29% 1.2 .35 18% .25 68% .22
Nov
3		 Southern A+ A+ D+ D B- 40% 23% 37% C- C+ B- C+ B A+ B A+ A B B- A+ F B- 26% 33% 41% A- B- B- F F+ D+ D+ A+ A-
1.34 79% 36% 32% +7 0 1.15 36% 1.1 .41 11% .40 86% .35 0.95 53% 11% 42% -5 -2 0.86 28% 1.4 .40 15% .35 46% .16
Nov
8		 Michigan St. B- A F F C 30% 17% 52% B- C A+ A A+ D- A+ F+ A+ A+ C- A- A+ A+ 48% 28% 24% D+ A+ F B+ C- B+ F A- F
0.97 64% 25% 25% -7 0 0.87 33% 0.9 .31 21% .42 65% .28 1.01 64% 31% 0% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.9 .46 21% .48 69% .33
Nov
11		 Central Arkansas A- A+ D B+ A 29% 16% 55% D+ A- D+ B C- A+ B+ A+ A A+ C B+ A+ A+ 21% 12% 67% B- A+ A F D+ F D C+ D+
1.25 81% 33% 39% +10 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .30 11% .33 82% .27 0.75 58% 29% 8% -27 0 0.47 20% 1.6 .31 11% .32 67% .21
Nov
14		 Samford D+ D+ B A- B- 31% 41% 28% F+ C D+ F F+ C+ B+ B- B+ C+ B B- C+ B- 39% 20% 41% D+ C+ C D+ C D A+ F A+
1.10 53% 45% 40% +4 -3 1.04 24% 0.8 .19 12% .35 77% .27 1.04 54% 33% 32% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 11% .16 90% .14
Nov
18		 Winthrop B- A+ F B- C+ 37% 31% 33% D- C D- A+ A A- B- A+ A D D A+ F D 31% 19% 51% A- D+ A+ F F C- A+ A A+
1.18 79% 19% 35% +2 -1 1.04 24% 2.0 .48 13% .35 91% .32 1.17 61% 0% 43% +1 0 1.03 24% 2.3 .53 14% .10 67% .07
Nov
21		 Jackson St. A+ A+ F A+ A+ 54% 15% 31% B A+ C+ A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 25% 33% 42% B+ A+ D F F A+ A- B A-
1.51 79% 25% 53% +18 +2 1.43 38% 1.3 .50 8% .51 78% .40 0.80 31% 35% 23% -15 -3 0.67 29% 1.6 .46 26% .20 73% .14
Nov
27		 Duke B+ B+ D+ C+ B+ 28% 22% 50% C B+ B+ A+ A- B+ C- A+ B- A- A F A+ A+ 42% 19% 40% A A+ C+ F F B- C- B+ C+
1.01 60% 33% 33% -1 -1 0.98 29% 1.0 .29 17% .19 82% .15 1.14 50% 56% 26% -5 0 0.94 39% 2.1 .81 17% .36 67% .24
Dec
3		 Louisville A F+ B F D+ 37% 33% 30% C- D+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ A+ C- F+ A+ A+ 42% 7% 51% C- A+ B+ A+ A+ F+ B+ C B+
1.18 45% 39% 25% -9 -2 0.81 43% 1.5 .64 13% .53 77% .41 1.06 64% 50% 23% -5 +2 0.97 30% 0.8 .23 12% .27 78% .21
Dec
6		 Fresno St. B- A D A A 26% 26% 48% D- A- D+ D+ D+ A+ C F D+ A+ A- B A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% D- A+ C A- B A A- C- B+
1.12 73% 33% 39% +7 -2 1.12 26% 1.0 .26 11% .26 65% .17 0.79 50% 33% 17% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 23% .23 77% .18
Dec
13		 Texas Tech A+ C+ C A+ A+ 52% 16% 32% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ D C- A+ D+ B+ 47% 9% 45% F B- C- F F F A+ A+ A+
1.40 58% 38% 50% +7 +2 1.20 46% 1.3 .57 11% .44 65% .29 1.29 63% 20% 38% +4 +2 1.14 37% 1.3 .47 11% .17 30% .05
Dec
16		 Queens A B A+ A+ A 47% 7% 45% A- A C+ A+ A+ D A- A A+ A- D+ F A+ A- 31% 30% 39% A+ A F B F+ A C- B+ C+
1.36 65% 50% 44% +11 +2 1.29 36% 1.9 .68 18% .41 81% .34 1.00 65% 50% 19% -3 -2 0.93 41% 1.0 .41 21% .32 70% .22
Dec
20		 Houston A+ B+ B- A A+ 40% 23% 38% B- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C- D+ A- F D+ 33% 23% 44% F+ D A F F C+ F C+ F
1.16 63% 36% 39% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.3 .43 16% .57 60% .34 1.28 68% 31% 44% +8 -1 1.18 31% 1.6 .50 12% .39 76% .30
Dec
29		 James Madison A+ A+ D A+ A+ 34% 17% 49% C A+ A A+ A+ A- A+ F A- C D+ F+ C D+ 27% 14% 59% B- C- D C- D B+ D D D-
1.47 72% 33% 50% +16 0 1.34 40% 1.4 .57 9% .49 65% .31 1.06 62% 43% 34% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.1 .35 20% .34 74% .25
Jan
3		 Tennessee A A F C+ B 29% 31% 40% D- B- A A- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C F A 56% 20% 24% D A- A+ F A- C+ C A+ A
1.15 67% 25% 33% -2 -2 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 19% .54 88% .48 1.00 46% 40% 42% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.3 .40 19% .38 52% .20
Jan
7		 Mississippi A+ A+ A A+ A+ 20% 35% 45% F A+ A+ D+ A- B+ A+ B A+ D+ F F C- F 21% 36% 43% B F B+ A+ A+ C+ D F+ D-
1.30 80% 47% 41% +12 -3 1.20 42% 1.0 .42 15% .49 73% .36 1.21 91% 53% 35% +13 -3 1.21 26% 0.8 .19 14% .34 81% .27
Jan
10		 Auburn C C F A- C+ 35% 27% 38% D+ C D B D+ B+ A- D+ B+ D+ D- A+ F D- 53% 11% 36% F+ F+ A+ F F C+ C+ B+ B-
1.02 56% 29% 40% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.1 .25 15% .35 71% .25 1.33 68% 17% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 2.0 .62 14% .39 71% .28
Jan
14		 South Carolina A+ A+ A+ A A+ 52% 17% 31% A A+ A- A A+ A+ D+ A+ C+ B+ D+ D+ A B- 33% 17% 50% C B- F+ A- C- A+ A C+ A
1.48 73% 55% 40% +13 +1 1.31 38% 1.2 .44 5% .25 82% .20 1.02 65% 44% 27% -2 0 0.98 35% 0.9 .32 22% .25 79% .19
Jan
17		 Georgia D D F F F+ 51% 18% 31% B+ D- B+ A+ A+ D+ C A+ B A B F C B 43% 10% 47% D+ B- A+ F C- A+ A F B
0.91 48% 27% 26% -10 +1 0.84 38% 1.3 .48 22% .25 81% .20 1.08 56% 50% 33% 0 +2 1.05 25% 1.7 .42 20% .24 88% .21
Jan
20		 Vanderbilt A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 46% 25% 30% B A+ A- A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 25% 51% A+ A+ A+ F F B- C B+ C+
1.38 81% 36% 41% +13 0 1.28 36% 1.2 .43 10% .20 83% .17 1.01 67% 15% 19% -15 -2 0.69 24% 2.2 .53 15% .33 74% .24
Jan
24		 LSU A A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 24% 38% C A+ D+ B- C A C F F C C+ D+ A+ A 33% 40% 27% A+ A+ D- F F D+ F+ F F
1.24 79% 67% 42% +19 0 1.40 26% 1.0 .26 12% .30 39% .12 1.18 59% 43% 21% -3 -3 0.90 39% 1.5 .61 13% .42 88% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Oklahoma A A+ A+ F B- 50% 21% 29% B+ B F+ A+ A- A+ F+ A+ D B+ A F C+ A 46% 11% 43% F B+ B- F+ C- A- A+ F B+
1.20 76% 50% 12% +2 +1 1.07 23% 1.9 .43 9% .21 85% .17 1.15 46% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 31% 1.5 .46 17% .21 92% .19
Jan
31		 Kentucky A- A- A+ F A+ 51% 25% 24% B+ A+ C C- C A+ A+ F B+ D F C+ F F 43% 30% 28% B+ D- C A B F+ F A+ F
1.15 65% 54% 25% +5 0 1.12 26% 0.8 .21 6% .41 62% .25 1.27 75% 36% 46% +12 -1 1.23 37% 1.0 .37 10% .50 63% .32
Feb
7		 Mississippi St. A+ A B+ A+ A+ 41% 26% 33% B A+ B+ C B A- F+ F F A+ C+ F A+ A 49% 25% 25% D A- A C B+ C+ B+ B+ B+
1.25 68% 44% 40% +9 -1 1.18 31% 1.0 .31 10% .19 67% .13 0.97 59% 50% 14% -4 0 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 16% .24 64% .15
Feb
10		 LSU A+ A D+ F A- 64% 16% 20% A+ A C- A+ B B A- A A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 15% 35% D- A+ F A+ A+ A F A+ C-
1.22 69% 33% 27% +4 +2 1.15 27% 1.3 .33 13% .37 75% .28 0.83 46% 25% 11% -20 +2 0.65 43% 0.6 .27 19% .45 63% .28
Feb
14		 Auburn A+ A+ F B- A+ 50% 15% 35% A A+ C- A+ A A+ D F D- A- A+ C B A+ 38% 32% 30% A+ A+ C+ B- B- D- A- C B+
1.32 81% 25% 37% +11 +2 1.28 27% 1.6 .42 7% .24 67% .16 1.12 45% 41% 31% -5 -2 0.89 38% 1.0 .38 10% .33 75% .25
Feb
18		 Alabama A+ C+ B A+ A+ 36% 36% 27% D A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B- C- F F D+ F 42% 13% 45% C+ F+ D+ A- B- B- F D+ F
1.31 56% 41% 50% +7 -2 1.11 33% 1.3 .41 8% .24 84% .20 1.34 76% 63% 37% +13 +1 1.30 36% 1.0 .36 14% .45 79% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.1 5.4 7.6 1st
2nd 0.1 9.1 24.7 2.9 36.7 2nd
3rd 1.7 20.3 6.0 28.0 3rd
4th 0.0 6.3 6.5 12.9 4th
5th 0.3 6.8 0.5 7.6 5th
6th 1.1 2.5 3.6 6th
7th 1.8 0.2 2.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.3 0.2 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.5 4.4 17.7 36.4 32.8 8.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 65.2% 5.4    1.5 3.1 0.8
13-5 6.4% 2.1    0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 1.6 3.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 8.3% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 3.1 0.5 1.9 2.7 2.4 0.8 0.0 100.0%
13-5 32.8% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 4.2 0.2 1.8 6.6 10.7 9.7 3.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 36.4% 99.9% 12.1% 87.9% 5.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 8.3 12.9 9.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 17.7% 99.8% 7.8% 92.0% 5.8 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.9 6.5 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 4.4% 98.6% 4.4% 94.2% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.6%
9-9 0.5% 93.7% 5.3% 88.4% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.3%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 13.1% 86.8% 4.8 0.2 99.8%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 2.0 23.5 53.7 20.8 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8% 100.0% 2.9 3.9 25.6 45.9 20.8 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3% 100.0% 3.4 2.2 12.6 40.7 34.6 9.8
Lose Out 0.2% 90.0% 9.0 2.5 20.0 42.5 22.5 2.5