Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#182
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#216
Pace67.0#238
Improvement+2.7#26

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#213
First Shot+2.3#110
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#337
Layup/Dunks+3.6#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#107
Freethrows-2.2#291
Improvement+2.7#20

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#158
First Shot-2.5#260
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#36
Layups/Dunks-1.9#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
Freethrows+0.5#159
Improvement+0.0#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.3% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 36.5% 44.1% 21.1%
.500 or above in Conference 32.0% 35.5% 25.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 15.6% 13.3% 20.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.9% 2.2% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Home) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 75 - 12
Quad 49 - 414 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 111   Toledo L 61-69 44%     0 - 1 -7.2 -11.6 +4.0
  Nov 13, 2021 261   Illinois-Chicago L 70-74 OT 76%     0 - 2 -12.3 -11.2 -0.9
  Nov 17, 2021 95   @ Stanford L 60-74 19%     0 - 3 -5.7 -10.9 +5.7
  Nov 22, 2021 164   Jacksonville St. W 78-70 46%     1 - 3 +8.3 +5.3 +3.0
  Nov 23, 2021 173   Coastal Carolina L 61-64 48%     1 - 4 -3.2 -9.4 +6.1
  Nov 24, 2021 160   Tulane W 68-64 45%     2 - 4 +4.6 -0.6 +5.4
  Dec 02, 2021 72   @ Drake L 66-73 16%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +3.0 +4.4 -2.2
  Dec 05, 2021 303   @ Western Michigan W 71-60 66%     3 - 5 +6.1 -0.6 +7.5
  Dec 11, 2021 220   Charlotte W 70-65 67%    
  Dec 20, 2021 266   Eastern Michigan W 75-67 77%    
  Dec 22, 2021 331   William & Mary W 75-61 90%    
  Dec 28, 2021 249   Prairie View W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 02, 2022 242   Illinois St. W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 05, 2022 127   @ Northern Iowa L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 08, 2022 146   Southern Illinois W 63-62 53%    
  Jan 11, 2022 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 57-73 8%    
  Jan 15, 2022 101   Missouri St. L 70-72 41%    
  Jan 19, 2022 127   Northern Iowa L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 22, 2022 175   @ Indiana St. L 70-73 37%    
  Jan 26, 2022 181   Bradley W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 146   @ Southern Illinois L 60-65 32%    
  Feb 01, 2022 237   Evansville W 65-59 71%    
  Feb 05, 2022 175   Indiana St. W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 09, 2022 242   @ Illinois St. W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 12, 2022 101   @ Missouri St. L 67-75 22%    
  Feb 16, 2022 33   Loyola Chicago L 60-70 19%    
  Feb 19, 2022 237   @ Evansville W 62-61 51%    
  Feb 23, 2022 72   Drake L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 181   @ Bradley L 65-68 40%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.6 4.4 6.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 14.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.2 7.1 2.5 0.2 14.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 5.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 12.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.1 2.7 1.0 0.1 9.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.4 7.6 11.0 13.6 14.7 14.2 12.1 8.7 5.8 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 95.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 79.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 36.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 26.1% 26.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 24.1% 24.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.5% 17.6% 17.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.6% 9.5% 9.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
12-6 3.1% 8.8% 8.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
11-7 5.8% 5.5% 5.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.5
10-8 8.7% 3.8% 3.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.3
9-9 12.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.8
8-10 14.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.0
7-11 14.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 14.6
6-12 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.6
5-13 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
4-14 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-15 4.4% 4.4
2-16 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 98.0 0.0%