Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 161
Expected Predictive Rating +1.3 142
Pace 64.6 290
Improvement +3.7 53

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 194 D C+ B- B- F+
Defense C+ 143 C+ B- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 331 C- 56% 216 -4.2 325
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 71 D+ 34% 302 +2.6 54
Three Pointers 37% 268 C 34% 204 -2.3 257
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.7 343 D+ -2.1 256
1st FG Attempt D 0.95 297
Second Chance C+ 31.6% 145 C+ 1.07 111 C+ 0.34 113
Turnovers B- 15.3% 83
Freethrows B 0.35 46 D+ 70% 273 B- 0.24 100
Total Offense C- -1.1 194

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 220 C 11.3% 197
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 269 C- 5.7% 232
Three Pointers D 78% 301 B- 0.5% 81
Total D 49% 313 C 5.6% 188

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 136 D+ 61% 261 +2.1 248
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 117 A 31% 9 -1.0 109
Three Pointers 38% 273 C+ 33% 136 -2.1 90
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 147 C+ -1.0 137
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 137
Second Chance C- 31.7% 232 B+ 0.89 22 B- 0.28 88
Turnovers C 17.3% 151
Freethrows C 0.31 208 C+ 71% 105 C 0.22 191
Total Defense C+ +1.0 143

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 56 C 11.8% 136
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 107 B 7.8% 50
Three Pointers C- 85% 203 D 0.2% 325
Total B- 51% 83 C+ 6.5% 102

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 276 17.7 254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 358 0.14 79
Improvement +4.1 #25 -0.4 #220

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 185 161 137
Conference Record 9 - 11 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.2 14.0
.500 or above 80% 97% 74%
.500 or above in Conference 91% 100% 88%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 81 - 11
Quad 36 - 27 - 14
Quad 49 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 320 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 63 88% +5  87% 1 - 0 D -10 F -12 F C- C- C+ +2 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 25 @Kentucky L 59 - 107 5% -31  0% 1 - 1 F -29 F -12 F D+ A- F -14 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 265 Nicholls St. W 68 - 63 79% +3  85% 2 - 1 C- -4 D -5 F+ F+ A+ C+ +2 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 16 354 Bryant W 68 - 50 94% +4  70% 3 - 1 C +1 F+ -8 F C+ B A +11 A+ D+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 312 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 75 72% +12  95% 4 - 1 B +9 B +7 C+ B- B C+ +2 B B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 341 Southern Indiana L 56 - 64 91% -6  3% 4 - 2 F -23 F -24 F D+ B+ C+ +1 D D- A-
 Sat, Nov 29 284 Western Michigan W 84 - 55 83% +14  93% 5 - 2 A +19 B+ +7 C+ A+ D A+ +14 A D- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 87 @Marquette L 72 - 75 OT 18% +2  62% 5 - 3 B- +6 D -5 B- C F A+ +12 A A A-
 Sat, Dec 13 111 UNC Wilmington L 70 - 73 47% +2  49% 5 - 4 C- -2 C+ +2 F A A D+ -4 A- F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 67 @Northwestern L 70 - 86 14% -12  0% 5 - 5 C- -5 C +1 C+ B+ F+ D -6 F+ C- D
 Sun, Dec 21 124 Murray St. L 79 - 85 51% +2  62% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -1 C+ C C+ D+ -5 F A+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 90 @Northern Iowa L 48 - 58 19% -3  10% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C -1 F+ -9 F F A- B+ +6 B C B+
 Thu, Jan 1 128 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 75 30% -5  20% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C +0 D+ -2 F F+ A+ B- +3 A- C F
 Sun, Jan 4 106 Illinois-Chicago W 66 - 59 45% -1  38% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B +8 C +2 D D+ B+ A- +7 B B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 99 Illinois St. W 77 - 71 41% +5  76% 7 - 8 2 - 3 B +8 A- +10 A+ F C C- -2 A- D+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 124 @Murray St. L 79 - 92 29% -6  15% 7 - 9 2 - 4 D+ -7 C- -2 B- D+ F D -5 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 68 @Belmont L 74 - 78 14% -3  10% 7 - 10 2 - 5 B- +7 B +7 D+ A+ C+ C -0 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 90 Northern Iowa W 54 - 44 37% +2  65% 8 - 10 3 - 5 B+ +13 D -6 F B A+ A+ +21 A+ B+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 128 Southern Illinois W 69 - 63 52% +11  85% 9 - 10 4 - 5 B- +5 B- +5 A- D B+ C+ +1 A- C+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 68 Belmont L 77 - 78 30% -2  31% 9 - 11 4 - 6 C+ +4 C+ +3 B+ F A C+ +1 D+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 211 @Indiana St. W 76 - 72 OT 49% -3  13% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C+ +4 C- -1 F+ C+ B B +5 C+ A- D+
 Tue, Feb 3 120 @Bradley L 65 - 72 28% -5  10% 10 - 12 5 - 7 C -1 D+ -3 D A- C+ C+ +1 D A B
 Fri, Feb 6 298 Evansville W 70 - 63 OT 84% +1  68% 11 - 12 6 - 7 C- -4 F+ -8 F A+ D- B +5 C A C-
 Mon, Feb 9 194 @Drake W 81 - 76 46% -0  32% 12 - 12 7 - 7 B- +6 B+ +9 B- A+ D+ C- -2 A- F F
 Thu, Feb 12 99 @Illinois St. L 64 - 86 21% -4  33% 12 - 13 7 - 8 D- -14 D -4 F A A F -10 F+ C+ D+
 Sun, Feb 15 211 Indiana St. W 76 - 75 71% +3  79% 13 - 13 8 - 8 D+ -5 B+ +9 A A- C+ F -14 D+ F F
 Wed, Feb 18 120 Bradley W 79 - 72 50% +5  89% 14 - 13 9 - 8 B- +7 B+ +8 B B+ A+ C -0 F+ B- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 106 @Illinois-Chicago L 65 - 72 25%
 Wed, Feb 25 194 Drake W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 298 @Evansville W 71 - 66 66%
Totals 16 - 14 11 - 9 +0 C- -1 F D+ F+ C+ +1 C D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- D+ C D+ 32% 48% 37% F+ D C+ C+ C+ B- B D+ B- C+ D+ A C+ C+ 40% 22% 38% C C+ C- B+ B- C C C+ C
1.07 56% 34% 34% -2 -2 0.95 32% 1.1 .34 15% .35 70% .24 1.07 61% 31% 33% -1 0 1.00 32% 0.9 .28 17% .31 71% .25
Nov
4		 Eastern Illinois F C- F F F 27% 9% 64% C F C C- C- C- A+ F A+ C+ F C+ B+ F 34% 47% 18% A+ D- D- A+ A+ A+ F D- F
0.94 58% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.66 34% 1.1 .36 20% .62 60% .37 0.90 69% 33% 29% 0 -4 0.95 31% 0.3 .09 29% .62 81% .50
Nov
7		 Kentucky F B F F F 17% 24% 59% D+ F D+ D- D+ A- C+ F C- F F B- F F 47% 10% 43% F F B A+ A+ F D+ F F
0.79 60% 14% 24% -15 -2 0.69 24% 0.7 .16 13% .31 65% .20 1.43 81% 33% 44% +17 +2 1.40 33% 0.5 .18 8% .38 85% .32
Nov
12		 Nicholls St. D F D A+ D+ 27% 40% 33% F F+ C- F F+ A+ A- D B+ C+ C+ A D+ C- 25% 18% 57% B C C F F A+ C+ A+ B+
1.08 50% 33% 47% +2 -3 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 14% .43 74% .31 1.00 55% 25% 36% -2 -1 0.98 25% 1.6 .41 24% .27 54% .15
Nov
16		 Bryant F+ F D D+ F 40% 20% 40% D F D+ A- C+ B A+ F A A B A+ A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% B A+ F B+ D+ D+ A F B
1.08 39% 33% 33% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .38 11% .45 64% .29 0.79 50% 0% 18% -21 0 0.60 38% 0.8 .31 21% .18 89% .16
Nov
19		 Cleveland St. B A A C B- 35% 29% 36% F+ C+ B C B- B B- D+ C+ C+ F A- A+ B+ 40% 14% 46% D B A+ F B- F D- F+ F
1.30 74% 50% 35% +9 -1 1.18 42% 1.1 .45 13% .33 75% .25 1.08 70% 29% 26% -2 +1 1.00 16% 1.4 .23 13% .38 83% .32
Nov
26		 Southern Indiana F F F+ F F 27% 36% 37% F F B- F D+ B+ F F F C+ C+ A+ D D 27% 22% 51% B- D F+ D D- A- F B+ F
0.80 44% 29% 14% -19 -3 0.59 36% 0.8 .28 13% .16 60% .10 0.91 50% 20% 35% -6 -1 0.89 34% 0.9 .32 21% .45 60% .27
Nov
29		 Western Michigan B+ F A- A+ B 30% 24% 46% F+ C+ A B A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- A+ 42% 27% 31% C A C- F D- A+ B- A+ A-
1.29 43% 45% 48% +6 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42 0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 -1 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14
Dec
2		 Marquette D A A D B+ 24% 35% 42% F B- C- C+ C F D- F F+ A+ A+ A C A+ 51% 14% 35% B- A C A+ A A- F F F
0.94 69% 47% 30% +4 -3 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 27% .21 67% .14 0.97 42% 29% 33% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.6 .19 18% .51 84% .43
Dec
13		 UNC Wilmington C+ A F F F+ 28% 34% 38% D F A+ D+ A A A+ C+ A+ D+ C B- A+ A 35% 20% 46% D A- F A F C- F A+ F
1.10 71% 24% 21% -9 -2 0.80 43% 1.0 .43 9% .42 75% .31 1.15 56% 33% 24% -9 0 0.85 51% 0.9 .47 14% .61 58% .35
Dec
16		 Northwestern C A- B D B+ 25% 40% 35% F C+ C A+ B+ F+ A+ C+ A+ D F F A F+ 43% 18% 39% D F+ D- B+ C- D D+ A- C+
1.02 67% 42% 29% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.2 .38 22% .41 73% .30 1.26 71% 78% 26% +9 +1 1.20 34% 1.2 .41 10% .36 68% .24
Dec
21		 Murray St. C- D+ A C+ B 36% 40% 24% F C+ D+ A- C C+ D F+ D- D+ D+ F F F 45% 27% 29% B F B- A+ A+ C- F F F
1.10 52% 48% 36% +2 -3 1.02 30% 1.2 .35 15% .25 67% .16 1.19 64% 54% 43% +11 0 1.22 30% 0.4 .12 15% .46 82% .38
Dec
29		 Northern Iowa F+ F+ C+ F F 40% 21% 38% C F A F F A- C+ A- B B+ C+ A+ C B+ 53% 18% 30% D+ B B+ F C B+ F F F
0.83 47% 40% 17% -14 0 0.74 35% 0.3 .09 14% .28 79% .22 1.01 57% 29% 33% -2 +1 1.00 15% 1.5 .23 17% .38 78% .29
Jan
1		 Southern Illinois D+ F F+ F F 38% 29% 34% D F C+ F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A A+ C- A 44% 20% 36% F+ A- A- F C F F A F
0.94 43% 31% 21% -14 -1 0.71 30% 0.6 .17 13% .45 83% .37 1.00 45% 30% 33% -7 0 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 12% .64 60% .38
Jan
4		 Illinois-Chicago C F+ F A+ D+ 39% 34% 26% F+ D D C+ D+ B+ A+ B- A+ A- F+ C- A+ C+ 36% 36% 29% A+ B B- C+ B- A+ D- A C-
1.06 47% 15% 50% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.0 .30 18% .78 78% .61 0.95 67% 40% 17% -4 -2 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 26% .37 65% .24
Jan
7		 Illinois St. A- D+ B+ A+ A+ 30% 38% 32% F+ A+ F+ F F C A+ B+ A+ C- F+ A+ A- A- 41% 31% 27% B+ A- F A+ D+ D F A+ D-
1.19 55% 43% 75% +21 -3 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 17% .65 74% .48 1.10 71% 19% 29% -3 -1 0.94 41% 0.8 .34 14% .41 61% .25
Jan
10		 Murray St. C- C F A+ B- 53% 24% 24% B- B- D+ C- D+ F A A+ A+ D D B- F F 42% 15% 44% D+ F C A+ A+ D+ D+ D+ D
1.06 56% 25% 50% +1 +1 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 21% .37 82% .31 1.23 65% 38% 46% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.6 .19 15% .36 78% .28
Jan
13		 Belmont B A+ C- D C+ 12% 36% 52% F D+ B A+ A+ C+ C F F+ C F B F D 47% 17% 36% B- D+ A A+ A+ F A+ F A+
1.14 83% 33% 31% -1 -4 0.92 37% 1.6 .58 17% .28 53% .15 1.20 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 20% 0.8 .16 14% .11 100% .11
Jan
17		 Northern Iowa D F F F F+ 21% 42% 37% F F C- A+ B A+ A+ B- A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 29% 33% A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+
0.92 44% 28% 25% -12 -4 0.70 23% 1.3 .29 12% .39 75% .29 0.75 67% 7% 19% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.7 .17 14% .14 29% .04
Jan
21		 Southern Illinois B- A- F A+ A 31% 31% 38% F+ A- F A+ D B+ A+ D+ A+ C+ D- A+ A+ A 51% 22% 27% F A- C- B C+ C+ F A F
1.08 67% 25% 47% +6 -2 1.10 15% 1.5 .22 16% .56 67% .37 0.99 67% 11% 18% -8 +1 0.88 31% 0.8 .26 17% .57 60% .34
Jan
28		 Belmont C+ A+ F+ A- A- 28% 28% 43% D- B+ C- F F A A C+ A- C+ C- B F D 33% 14% 53% B+ D+ C+ F+ D+ A- F+ B D
1.13 73% 27% 39% +4 -2 1.08 31% 0.6 .19 13% .35 76% .27 1.14 64% 33% 48% +12 0 1.28 27% 1.4 .38 22% .38 65% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Indiana St. C- F A+ F F 51% 29% 20% C F+ B+ D C+ B A+ D- A+ B F+ A+ A+ C+ 52% 8% 40% D+ C+ B A+ A- D+ F A+ D+
1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27 1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20
Feb
3		 Bradley D+ B- C F D+ 33% 37% 31% D D C- A+ A- C+ F F F C+ C F C D- 33% 29% 38% B D C A+ A B B- A- B
1.00 63% 39% 27% -2 -2 0.94 29% 1.5 .43 18% .19 40% .08 1.10 59% 53% 35% +5 -1 1.10 27% 0.6 .17 17% .30 69% .20
Feb
6		 Evansville F+ D+ F F F 23% 38% 40% F F A A+ A+ D- C A B- B A- A+ F C 35% 25% 39% D+ C C- A+ A C- A A A
1.01 55% 22% 26% -11 -3 0.73 43% 1.6 .69 20% .27 80% .22 0.91 50% 23% 45% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.6 .13 19% .20 64% .12
Feb
9		 Drake B+ F A+ A+ B- 30% 24% 46% C- B- A- A+ A+ D+ A+ D+ A+ C- B- D A+ A 34% 22% 44% C A- F+ F F F A A- A
1.21 43% 55% 43% +5 -1 1.11 38% 1.3 .50 16% .48 67% .32 1.14 55% 46% 23% -6 0 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 9% .23 64% .15
Feb
12		 Illinois St. D D+ F D+ F 26% 51% 23% F F C+ A+ A A F+ C+ D- F D+ F D D- 44% 10% 46% F F+ C- B+ C+ D+ C F F
0.94 53% 21% 31% -11 -5 0.70 28% 1.4 .40 12% .23 71% .17 1.26 65% 60% 38% +8 +2 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 15% .29 100% .29
Feb
15		 Indiana St. B+ A+ D A+ A+ 27% 36% 36% F A A C+ A- C+ A+ F C+ F F A+ A D 55% 14% 31% C D+ F F F F C+ C- C
1.24 83% 38% 44% +12 -3 1.20 44% 1.0 .44 15% .40 48% .19 1.23 78% 14% 27% +4 +2 1.14 35% 1.2 .42 13% .24 69% .17
Feb
18		 Bradley B+ C B A+ B+ 43% 32% 25% C+ B C- A+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ C B- A F F 27% 24% 49% B F+ C- A B- A+ C- B C+
1.19 58% 43% 45% +6 -1 1.11 30% 1.3 .40 12% .57 61% .34 1.08 54% 25% 50% +7 -1 1.14 28% 0.9 .24 23% .33 71% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.6 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.5 4.5 3rd
4th 0.5 5.6 6.2 4th
5th 8.6 1.6 10.2 5th
6th 7.7 26.1 33.9 6th
7th 7.4 28.1 7.9 43.4 7th
8th 1.3 1.3 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 8.7 35.8 43.3 12.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 12.3% 3.9% 3.9% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.8
11-9 43.3% 2.5% 2.5% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 42.2
10-10 35.8% 1.5% 1.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 35.2
9-11 8.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.6
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 13.7 97.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.0 21.0 60.8 17.5 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.2%
Lose Out 3.0%