Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.4 #100
Expected Predictive Rating +8.8 #69
Pace 77.5 #23
Improvement +1.9 #81

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #64 B A- C+ B- C
Defense #175 B C+ C D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #181 1.19 #145 +0.4 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #220 0.91 #29 +0.8 #135
Three Pointers 43% #141 1.11 #69 +3.3 #83
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #73 +4.4 #71
Freethrows 19.7 #77 79% #24 15.5 #33
Second Chance 32.5% #131 1.08 #133 0.35 #111
Turnovers 15.4% #107
Total Offense +5.7 #64

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #15 1.01 #34 -1.2 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #48 0.78 #226 -2.4 #330
Three Pointers 28% #365 0.99 #162 +7.1 #7
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #81 +3.6 #80
Freethrows 15.5 #98 75% #303 11.7 #138
Second Chance 32.4% #255 1.01 #155 0.33 #205
Turnovers 15.5% #256
Total Defense -0.3 #175

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #158 0% #156
Shot Type Make Effect 8.2% #67 -6.9% #70
Possession Length 15.8 #62 16.5 #72
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #126 0.18 #202
Improvement +2.1 #45 -0.3 #201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 17.4% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 99.4% 99.8% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 97.1% 89.1%
Conference Champion 20.5% 24.7% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round15.6% 17.2% 12.0%
Second Round2.6% 3.1% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 68.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 6
Quad 37 - 411 - 10
Quad 411 - 123 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 234 Nebraska Omaha W 85-77 82%     4.9   1 - 0 +3.9 -1.4 +4.3
  Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108-60 99%     20.9   2 - 0 +21.8 +14.0 +3.2
  Tue, Nov 11 35 @SMU L 91-102 15%     -8.7   2 - 1 +5.4 +11.8 -4.8
  Sat, Nov 15 215 Nicholls St. W 99-79 86%     11.0   3 - 1 +13.6 +15.8 -3.7
  Tue, Nov 18 312 Arkansas Little Rock W 89-68 94%     16.0   4 - 1 +9.1 +16.2 -5.8
  Sun, Nov 23 137 Middle Tennessee L 87-90 66%     -2.7   4 - 2 -1.7 +9.0 -10.5
  Mon, Nov 24 81 McNeese St. L 60-73 43%     -15.5   4 - 3 -5.8 -12.2 +7.2
  Tue, Nov 25 67 George Washington W 96-95 39%     1.0   5 - 3 +9.2 +19.9 -10.7
  Tue, Dec 2 306 Morehead St. W 84-52 93%     9.7   6 - 3 +20.6 +10.3 +11.6
  Sat, Dec 6 263 Bellarmine W 81-68 90%     12.6   7 - 3 +4.1 +5.8 -0.7
  Sat, Dec 13 59 Akron W 115-100 36%     8.6   8 - 3 +24.1 +24.1 -2.2
  Thu, Dec 18 149 Drake W 81-72 77%     5.1   9 - 3 1 - 0 +6.6 +10.6 -3.6
  Sun, Dec 21 214 @Valparaiso W 85-79 71%     -1.7   10 - 3 2 - 0 +5.7 +11.8 -6.3
  Mon, Dec 29 128 Southern Illinois W 84-81 73%     7.4   11 - 3 3 - 0 +2.1 +6.6 -4.7
  Thu, Jan 1 199 @Illinois-Chicago W 84-79 68%    
  Sun, Jan 4 114 Bradley W 82-77 68%    
  Wed, Jan 7 250 @Evansville W 82-75 75%    
  Sat, Jan 10 214 Valparaiso W 84-72 87%    
  Sat, Jan 17 190 Indiana St. W 87-77 83%    
  Wed, Jan 21 149 @Drake W 79-77 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 93 @Northern Iowa L 68-72 38%    
  Wed, Jan 28 74 Illinois St. W 80-79 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 79 @Belmont L 83-88 32%    
  Tue, Feb 3 199 Illinois-Chicago W 87-76 84%    
  Fri, Feb 6 128 @Southern Illinois W 83-82 51%    
  Mon, Feb 9 93 Northern Iowa W 71-69 59%    
  Thu, Feb 12 190 @Indiana St. W 84-80 65%    
  Sun, Feb 15 79 Belmont W 86-85 53%    
  Wed, Feb 18 74 @Illinois St. L 77-82 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 250 Evansville W 85-72 88%    
  Sun, Mar 1 114 @Bradley L 79-80 45%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.2 6.4 4.9 2.5 0.8 0.2 20.5 1st
2nd 0.3 2.7 7.0 7.6 3.1 0.6 0.0 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.4 7.8 6.6 1.9 0.2 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.1 4.8 1.0 0.0 16.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.2 6.2 10.1 13.8 16.1 15.9 13.8 9.7 5.5 2.5 0.8 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
18-2 98.4% 2.5    2.3 0.2
17-3 88.9% 4.9    3.8 1.1 0.0
16-4 66.6% 6.4    3.4 2.7 0.3
15-5 30.5% 4.2    1.5 1.8 0.9 0.1
14-6 8.6% 1.4    0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.5% 20.5 12.1 6.5 1.6 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.8% 45.2% 41.7% 3.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 6.1%
18-2 2.5% 37.8% 33.5% 4.4% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.6 6.6%
17-3 5.5% 30.9% 29.8% 1.1% 11.3 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 3.8 1.6%
16-4 9.7% 26.3% 26.3% 11.6 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.1 7.1
15-5 13.8% 19.9% 19.8% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.2 11.0 0.1%
14-6 15.9% 18.0% 18.0% 12.0 0.4 2.2 0.3 13.0
13-7 16.1% 13.2% 13.2% 12.2 0.2 1.4 0.6 0.0 14.0
12-8 13.8% 9.1% 9.1% 12.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 12.5
11-9 10.1% 5.5% 5.5% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.6
10-10 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.8
9-11 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1
8-12 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 1.6
7-13 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 14.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.7% 15.5% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.3 9.0 2.1 0.1 0.0 84.3 0.3%