Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#94
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#90
Pace65.6#268
Improvement+0.1#174

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#91
First Shot+4.3#62
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#246
Layup/Dunks+7.0#17
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#235
Freethrows-2.4#302
Improvement+1.5#61

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#100
First Shot+2.9#88
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#216
Layups/Dunks+1.1#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#179
Freethrows+3.5#6
Improvement-1.4#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.3% 40.6% 31.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 3.0% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.9 12.0 13.2
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 99.5%
Conference Champion 39.4% 48.6% 37.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
First Round33.1% 40.2% 31.4%
Second Round7.1% 11.2% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 3.4% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 26 - 6
Quad 416 - 122 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 195   Bellarmine W 78-59 82%     1 - 0 +14.7 +4.9 +10.7
  Nov 16, 2021 242   @ Illinois St. W 77-65 75%     2 - 0 +10.7 +4.8 +6.2
  Nov 22, 2021 131   East Tennessee St. L 58-66 62%     2 - 1 -5.7 -10.2 +4.1
  Nov 23, 2021 286   Long Beach St. W 80-43 88%     3 - 1 +30.1 +3.4 +26.9
  Nov 24, 2021 167   James Madison W 74-62 70%     4 - 1 +12.3 +5.2 +7.5
  Dec 04, 2021 190   Middle Tennessee W 93-87 82%     5 - 1 +2.0 +8.8 -7.5
  Dec 10, 2021 34   @ Memphis L 67-76 19%    
  Dec 18, 2021 88   Chattanooga W 66-63 60%    
  Dec 22, 2021 16   @ Auburn L 66-78 12%    
  Dec 30, 2021 304   Southeast Missouri St. W 81-64 94%    
  Jan 01, 2022 280   Tennessee Tech W 77-62 92%    
  Jan 06, 2022 350   @ Eastern Illinois W 75-58 94%    
  Jan 08, 2022 324   @ SIU Edwardsville W 74-62 87%    
  Jan 13, 2022 327   Tennessee St. W 80-61 96%    
  Jan 15, 2022 57   @ Belmont L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 20, 2022 350   Eastern Illinois W 78-55 98%    
  Jan 22, 2022 343   Tennessee Martin W 81-59 98%    
  Jan 27, 2022 280   @ Tennessee Tech W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 29, 2022 143   Morehead St. W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 03, 2022 257   @ Austin Peay W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 05, 2022 324   SIU Edwardsville W 77-59 95%    
  Feb 10, 2022 327   @ Tennessee St. W 77-64 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 143   @ Morehead St. W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 17, 2022 257   Austin Peay W 75-61 88%    
  Feb 19, 2022 343   @ Tennessee Martin W 78-62 92%    
  Feb 24, 2022 57   Belmont W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 26, 2022 304   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 78-67 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 6 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.8 14.3 12.5 4.1 39.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.3 11.9 14.0 5.5 38.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.5 5.9 3.8 0.7 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.7 7.0 11.6 17.2 21.5 19.9 12.5 4.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.1    4.1
17-1 100.0% 12.5    10.4 2.0
16-2 72.1% 14.3    7.9 6.1 0.3
15-3 31.6% 6.8    2.4 3.5 0.8
14-4 9.0% 1.5    0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.4% 39.4 25.3 12.5 1.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.1% 65.5% 58.7% 6.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 16.4%
17-1 12.5% 53.6% 52.1% 1.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.8 3.1%
16-2 19.9% 43.1% 42.9% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.3 0.4%
15-3 21.5% 33.0% 33.0% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 1.3 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 14.4 0.0%
14-4 17.2% 25.4% 25.4% 13.7 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.7 0.0 12.9
13-5 11.6% 19.6% 19.6% 14.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 9.3
12-6 7.0% 14.4% 14.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 6.0
11-7 3.7% 10.5% 10.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.3
10-8 1.6% 9.0% 9.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
9-9 0.6% 7.6% 7.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 0.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.3% 32.8% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.0 8.0 11.2 7.7 2.7 0.3 66.7 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.0 4.8 9.7 27.4 25.8 16.1 8.1 8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 80.0% 9.0 11.1 2.2 17.8 13.3 15.6 20.0