Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#127
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.1#311
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#142
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#125
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 11.5% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.2 12.0 12.7
.500 or above 66.1% 75.3% 50.6%
.500 or above in Conference 62.3% 68.3% 52.2%
Conference Champion 10.8% 13.4% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 3.9% 7.5%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round9.4% 11.4% 6.1%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Neutral) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 37 - 69 - 12
Quad 410 - 218 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 182   Nebraska Omaha W 72-68 63%    
  Nov 07, 2025 365   Mississippi Valley W 78-48 99.7%   
  Nov 11, 2025 44   @ SMU L 64-77 12%    
  Nov 15, 2025 233   Nicholls St. W 72-63 80%    
  Nov 18, 2025 177   Arkansas Little Rock W 70-64 72%    
  Nov 23, 2025 147   Middle Tennessee W 69-67 55%    
  Nov 24, 2025 96   McNeese St. L 64-67 39%    
  Nov 25, 2025 85   George Washington L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 02, 2025 293   Morehead St. W 69-57 86%    
  Dec 06, 2025 320   Bellarmine W 76-62 89%    
  Dec 13, 2025 104   Akron L 72-75 41%    
  Dec 18, 2025 114   Drake W 60-58 55%    
  Dec 21, 2025 261   @ Valparaiso W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 29, 2025 141   Southern Illinois W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 01, 2026 154   @ Illinois-Chicago L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 04, 2026 107   Bradley W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 07, 2026 241   @ Evansville W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 10, 2026 261   Valparaiso W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 17, 2026 170   Indiana St. W 78-72 69%    
  Jan 21, 2026 114   @ Drake L 57-61 35%    
  Jan 24, 2026 110   @ Northern Iowa L 63-68 34%    
  Jan 28, 2026 109   Illinois St. W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 31, 2026 112   @ Belmont L 70-75 35%    
  Feb 03, 2026 154   Illinois-Chicago W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 06, 2026 141   @ Southern Illinois L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 09, 2026 110   Northern Iowa W 66-65 54%    
  Feb 12, 2026 170   @ Indiana St. W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 15, 2026 112   Belmont W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 18, 2026 109   @ Illinois St. L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 21, 2026 241   Evansville W 70-61 77%    
  Mar 01, 2026 107   @ Bradley L 63-68 34%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 10.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.8 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.9 4.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.6 5.2 6.8 8.3 9.3 10.4 10.7 9.8 8.8 7.7 5.9 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 98.8% 1.3    1.2 0.1
17-3 87.6% 2.3    1.9 0.4 0.0
16-4 66.9% 2.9    1.9 0.9 0.1
15-5 37.6% 2.2    1.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.1% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
13-7 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 7.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 73.3% 58.5% 14.7% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.5%
19-1 0.6% 65.5% 55.6% 9.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 22.4%
18-2 1.3% 46.5% 41.5% 5.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7 8.6%
17-3 2.7% 33.8% 32.3% 1.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.8 2.3%
16-4 4.3% 26.9% 26.7% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 0.4%
15-5 5.9% 23.0% 23.0% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.5
14-6 7.7% 17.9% 17.8% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.1%
13-7 8.8% 11.6% 11.6% 12.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.8
12-8 9.8% 10.2% 10.2% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.8
11-9 10.7% 6.5% 6.5% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.0
10-10 10.4% 4.4% 4.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0
9-11 9.3% 2.0% 2.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.1
8-12 8.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.1
7-13 6.8% 0.8% 0.8% 17.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
6-14 5.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.2
5-15 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-16 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.5% 9.3% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 2.0 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 90.5 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 33.3 33.3 33.3