Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#85
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#86
Pace66.4#267
Improvement+4.3#6

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#73
First Shot+4.0#76
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#147
Layup/Dunks+1.5#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#129
Freethrows-1.4#275
Improvement+4.5#3

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#103
First Shot+0.9#134
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#72
Layups/Dunks-0.4#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#120
Freethrows+0.8#126
Improvement-0.2#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.5% 24.0% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 11.9
.500 or above 99.2% 99.8% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 96.5% 98.6% 93.4%
Conference Champion 31.3% 38.7% 20.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round21.3% 23.8% 17.6%
Second Round4.5% 5.5% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 39 - 312 - 9
Quad 411 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 190 @Ohio L 68-72 71%     0 - 1 -2.9 -4.9 +2.1
  Sun, Nov 9 159 Cornell W 76-65 82%     1 - 1 +8.1 -6.2 +13.9
  Fri, Nov 14 39 USC L 67-87 29%     1 - 2 -7.4 +0.6 -8.4
  Sun, Nov 16 276 @Long Beach St. W 82-80 83%     2 - 2 -1.1 +8.6 -9.7
  Sun, Nov 23 250 Coastal Carolina W 94-42 91%     3 - 2 +44.0 +14.4 +26.5
  Thu, Nov 27 185 Charlotte W 79-69 79%     4 - 2 +8.3 +8.8 +0.2
  Fri, Nov 28 151 Furman W 72-65 72%     5 - 2 +7.8 +2.5 +5.6
  Wed, Dec 3 260 Eastern Kentucky W 89-78 92%     6 - 2 +2.6 +9.4 -7.1
  Sat, Dec 6 336 Chicago St. W 95-53 96%     7 - 2 +28.3 +19.3 +10.8
  Sat, Dec 13 32 Utah St. L 78-83 26%     7 - 3 +8.5 +14.5 -6.3
  Thu, Dec 18 128 @Southern Illinois W 75-68 57%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +11.9 +5.7 +6.3
  Sun, Dec 21 200 Indiana St. W 85-65 87%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +14.5 +13.5 +1.6
  Mon, Dec 29 142 @Drake W 72-69 60%    
  Thu, Jan 1 256 Evansville W 78-63 92%    
  Wed, Jan 7 216 @Valparaiso W 74-67 76%    
  Sat, Jan 10 201 Illinois-Chicago W 79-67 87%    
  Wed, Jan 14 200 @Indiana St. W 77-71 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 108 Bradley W 74-68 71%    
  Wed, Jan 21 96 Northern Iowa W 66-62 65%    
  Sun, Jan 25 69 @Belmont L 75-79 35%    
  Wed, Jan 28 99 @Murray St. L 79-81 44%    
  Tue, Feb 3 128 Southern Illinois W 78-70 76%    
  Fri, Feb 6 142 Drake W 75-66 78%    
  Mon, Feb 9 256 @Evansville W 75-66 79%    
  Thu, Feb 12 216 Valparaiso W 77-64 89%    
  Sun, Feb 15 201 @Illinois-Chicago W 76-70 72%    
  Wed, Feb 18 99 Murray St. W 82-78 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 108 @Bradley L 71-72 49%    
  Wed, Feb 25 96 @Northern Iowa L 63-65 43%    
  Sun, Mar 1 69 Belmont W 78-76 57%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.0 9.0 8.4 5.1 1.9 0.4 31.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.1 8.0 4.3 1.1 0.1 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.2 6.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.8 4.1 1.1 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.2 7.0 10.2 13.4 15.9 15.3 13.6 9.5 5.2 1.9 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
18-2 97.9% 5.1    4.8 0.3
17-3 87.9% 8.4    6.7 1.6 0.1
16-4 66.1% 9.0    5.4 3.1 0.5 0.0
15-5 32.8% 5.0    1.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.9% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.3% 31.3 21.1 8.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 68.9% 51.9% 17.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 35.3%
19-1 1.9% 50.2% 43.6% 6.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 11.7%
18-2 5.2% 40.9% 38.6% 2.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.1 3.8%
17-3 9.5% 35.4% 34.7% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 1.4 0.0 6.2 1.1%
16-4 13.6% 28.5% 28.3% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 1.4 2.2 0.2 9.8 0.2%
15-5 15.3% 24.7% 24.7% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.5 0.0%
14-6 15.9% 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 12.1 0.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 12.9 0.0%
13-7 13.4% 14.5% 14.5% 12.2 0.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 11.4
12-8 10.2% 12.2% 12.2% 12.5 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.1 8.9
11-9 7.0% 8.7% 8.7% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 6.4
10-10 4.2% 5.3% 5.3% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0
9-11 2.0% 4.6% 4.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9
8-12 0.9% 2.5% 2.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-13 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.5% 21.1% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 6.6 11.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 78.5 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 7.3 5.5 10.9 30.9 10.9 14.5 7.3 12.7 7.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 40.0% 9.9 4.0 12.0 8.0 16.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 40.0% 10.6 15.0 25.0