UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#73
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#53
Pace65.0#283
Improvement+2.3#39

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#165
First Shot+0.9#163
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#204
Layup/Dunks+2.4#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#117
Freethrows-0.5#212
Improvement+2.3#27

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#35
First Shot+2.9#89
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#16
Layups/Dunks+0.1#176
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#6
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#17
Freethrows-7.3#357
Improvement+0.0#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 3.0% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.5% 49.7% 37.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.3% 8.6% 2.4%
Average Seed 11.7 11.3 12.4
.500 or above 97.2% 99.1% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.9% 96.9%
Conference Champion 56.4% 62.3% 50.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.8% 2.5% 1.1%
First Round42.6% 48.4% 36.5%
Second Round12.6% 16.1% 9.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 5.3% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.6% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 37 - 310 - 7
Quad 412 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 104   @ New Mexico St. L 51-62 48%     0 - 1 -3.5 -16.1 +11.6
  Nov 13, 2021 78   Boise St. W 58-50 63%     1 - 1 +11.6 -6.4 +18.6
  Nov 20, 2021 229   Pepperdine W 82-48 89%     2 - 1 +27.7 +11.1 +18.6
  Nov 27, 2021 83   @ Santa Clara W 69-64 41%     3 - 1 +14.3 +2.3 +12.2
  Dec 11, 2021 112   @ Fresno St. W 60-59 51%    
  Dec 15, 2021 14   @ USC L 58-70 14%    
  Dec 19, 2021 212   Duquesne W 69-60 80%    
  Dec 21, 2021 69   @ Buffalo L 71-74 38%    
  Dec 30, 2021 285   Cal St. Northridge W 70-53 94%    
  Jan 01, 2022 115   UC Santa Barbara W 68-62 72%    
  Jan 06, 2022 211   @ UC Davis W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 08, 2022 136   @ UC Riverside W 63-61 57%    
  Jan 11, 2022 198   UC San Diego W 72-61 85%    
  Jan 14, 2022 193   @ Hawaii W 68-63 67%    
  Jan 20, 2022 205   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-59 85%    
  Jan 22, 2022 286   @ Long Beach St. W 76-65 83%    
  Jan 27, 2022 214   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-55 85%    
  Jan 29, 2022 302   Cal Poly W 68-50 94%    
  Feb 03, 2022 115   @ UC Santa Barbara W 65-64 51%    
  Feb 05, 2022 285   @ Cal St. Northridge W 67-56 82%    
  Feb 10, 2022 136   UC Riverside W 66-58 76%    
  Feb 12, 2022 211   UC Davis W 72-60 85%    
  Feb 15, 2022 198   @ UC San Diego W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 19, 2022 193   Hawaii W 71-60 83%    
  Feb 24, 2022 205   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 286   Long Beach St. W 79-62 93%    
  Mar 03, 2022 302   @ Cal Poly W 65-53 85%    
  Mar 05, 2022 214   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 64-58 69%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.0 10.5 13.6 12.6 8.3 3.2 56.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.5 6.6 4.4 1.8 0.2 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.2 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.3 7.8 10.8 13.8 15.1 15.4 12.9 8.3 3.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
19-1 100.0% 8.3    8.2 0.1
18-2 98.1% 12.6    12.0 0.7 0.0
17-3 88.5% 13.6    11.4 2.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 69.6% 10.5    7.0 3.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 43.4% 6.0    2.7 2.5 0.6 0.1
14-6 17.3% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1
13-7 4.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 56.4% 56.4 44.9 9.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.2% 87.8% 70.0% 17.8% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 59.4%
19-1 8.3% 76.6% 63.7% 12.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.9 35.6%
18-2 12.9% 65.1% 57.8% 7.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 4.5 17.3%
17-3 15.4% 52.5% 49.5% 2.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.3 5.8%
16-4 15.1% 42.7% 42.0% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 8.6 1.2%
15-5 13.8% 34.4% 34.2% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.0 0.3%
14-6 10.8% 28.4% 28.3% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.8 0.1%
13-7 7.8% 23.4% 23.4% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 5.9
12-8 5.3% 17.4% 17.4% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 4.4
11-9 3.4% 13.3% 13.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.9
10-10 2.0% 12.0% 12.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.8
9-11 1.1% 12.0% 12.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9
8-12 0.6% 7.1% 7.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.5% 40.3% 3.2% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.5 2.4 6.3 13.4 10.4 4.5 1.4 0.3 56.5 5.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.4 4.7 16.5 32.3 29.9 14.2 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 5.9 9.1 22.7 18.2 13.6 9.1 18.2 4.5 4.5