UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.8 121
Results Rating +1.5 137
Pace 71.2 112
Improvement +1.0 155

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 261 D+ C C- D+ D+
Defense B+ 34 A- C+ C+ B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 74 D 53% 296 +0.3 168
2 Pt. Jumpers 56% 30 C 38% 160 +3.1 46
Three Pointers 29% 360 C+ 35% 147 -5.9 341
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 283 C- -1.7 236
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 256
Second Chance C 30.7% 171 C 1.02 191 C 0.31 173
Turnovers C- 17.6% 238
Freethrows C 0.30 203 D 68% 315 D+ 0.20 248
Total Offense D+ -3.5 261

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 85 C- 11.8% 235
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 38% 33 C+ 4.1% 117
Three Pointers B- 88% 97 D+ 1.2% 280
Total C+ 58% 126 D+ 6.6% 285

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 231 A+ 44% 2 -5.9 24
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 60 C+ 37% 156 +1.2 287
Three Pointers 38% 254 C+ 33% 127 -1.8 109
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 74 A- -5.7 19
1st FG Attempt A- 0.89 23
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 293 B+ 0.91 33 C+ 0.30 155
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 121
Freethrows B+ 0.25 34 C+ 72% 138 B 0.18 39
Total Defense B+ +6.3 34

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 203 A 20.2% 8
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 314 B- 6.5% 80
Three Pointers D+ 87% 283 D+ 0.5% 269
Total C- 58% 241 A 9.3% 12

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 119 17.2 169
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 171 0.17 173
Improvement +2.1 #92 -1.1 #251

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 141 120 103
Results Rating Rank 165 135 91
Conference Record 12 - 8 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27% 32% 22%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 48% 77% 21%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round27% 32% 22%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Away) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 87 - 11
Quad 412 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 138 California Baptist L 61 - 69 67% -3  38% 0 - 1 D -10 F -14 F D C+ B +4 C+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 211 Weber St. W 79 - 70 79% +8  91% 1 - 1 C+ +3 F+ -10 D D+ C- A+ +12 A+ B+ C+
 Wed, Nov 19 95 @Utah Valley L 72 - 79 28% -6  2% 1 - 2 C+ +2 C+ +2 F B+ A C -0 C C F
 Sat, Nov 22 94 Northern Iowa L 69 - 70 OT 50% -3  15% 1 - 3 C+ +2 D+ -2 D- A A+ B +4 A A D-
 Tue, Nov 25 161 New Mexico St. L 45 - 57 62% -5  4% 1 - 4 D- -12 F -32 F F F A+ +20 A+ D- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 210 South Dakota St. W 64 - 52 70% +7  86% 2 - 4 B +9 F -17 F F F A+ +26 A+ A A
 Sun, Nov 30 219 @San Jose St. W 72 - 63 62% +5  89% 3 - 4 B +9 C- -2 D C+ B- A +11 A- A+ D+
 Thu, Dec 4 283 UC Riverside W 73 - 60 88% +11  98% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -4 C D C- A- +8 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 158 Cal St. Northridge W 85 - 71 72% -0  30% 5 - 4 2 - 0 B +11 B+ +9 D+ A+ B- B- +2 B A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 67 Belmont L 58 - 84 40% -8  18% 5 - 5 F -21 F -17 F F A D+ -4 D C+ B+
 Sun, Dec 21 129 North Dakota St. W 74 - 73 53% +3  72% 6 - 5 C+ +3 C+ +3 C+ B B C -0 C F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 303 Norfolk St. W 89 - 70 85% +16  97% 7 - 5 B +11 A +13 B- A+ B+ C- -2 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 331 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 77 85% +6  98% 8 - 5 3 - 0 C- -4 C+ +2 B- A- F D- -6 C- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 207 @Cal St. Fullerton W 86 - 64 59% +9  80% 9 - 5 4 - 0 A +22 A +11 A A+ D- A+ +11 A+ D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 263 Long Beach St. W 74 - 64 86% +7  75% 10 - 5 5 - 0 C +1 D- -6 F+ F A A- +7 C+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 118 @Hawaii L 66 - 67 38% -2  21% 10 - 6 5 - 1 B- +5 D+ -3 F+ A F A +8 B A- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 177 @UC Davis L 72 - 75 53% -2  9% 10 - 7 5 - 2 C -1 C- -1 C- C+ D+ C -0 A+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 22 283 @UC Riverside W 80 - 66 74% +10  97% 11 - 7 6 - 2 B +10 C+ +3 C B F B+ +7 A+ D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 134 @UC San Diego W 61 - 59 43% +1  59% 12 - 7 7 - 2 B- +7 F -10 D- D B- A+ +17 A A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 118 Hawaii W 87 - 76 OT 61% +2  67% 13 - 7 8 - 2 B +11 C +0 C+ B D- A +9 A- A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 331 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78 - 62 94% +5  68% 14 - 7 9 - 2 C+ +2 D- -8 F+ F A+ A +9 A F+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 140 @UC Santa Barbara L 79 - 84 45% -6  35% 14 - 8 9 - 3 C -1 C +1 C F+ C+ C- -2 D+ D+ B-
 Thu, Feb 12 230 @Cal Poly L 73 - 79 64% +2  48% 14 - 9 9 - 4 D+ -7 F -13 D F F B+ +7 B- F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 207 Cal St. Fullerton W 86 - 65 79% +7  67% 15 - 9 10 - 4 A- +15 C+ +3 A+ C+ D A +11 A+ F+ C-
 Thu, Feb 19 263 @Long Beach St. W 69 - 58 70% +7  98% 16 - 9 11 - 4 B +8 F -10 A+ F F A+ +18 A+ F A-
 Sat, Feb 21 134 UC San Diego L 69 - 71 65% -5  8% 16 - 10 11 - 5 C- -3 C+ +2 C B B+ D -6 D+ C- D
 Thu, Feb 26 158 @Cal St. Northridge L 76 - 77 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 140 UC Santa Barbara W 73 - 68 67%
 Thu, Mar 5 230 Cal Poly W 84 - 74 82%
 Sat, Mar 7 177 UC Davis W 75 - 68 74%
Totals 19 - 11 14 - 6 +3 D+ -4 A- C- D+ B+ +6 C+ D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D C C+ C- 43% 56% 29% D+ D+ C C C C- C D D+ B+ A+ C+ C+ A- 37% 25% 38% B- A- D+ B+ C+ C+ B+ C+ B
1.04 53% 38% 35% -2 -1 0.97 31% 1.0 .31 18% .30 68% .20 1.00 44% 37% 33% -6 -1 0.89 33% 0.9 .30 18% .25 72% .21
Nov
7		 California Baptist F F F A+ F+ 40% 36% 25% F+ F D+ F D C+ B+ F D+ B A+ F F+ B- 48% 17% 35% D+ C+ F A C A+ B- B+ B
0.85 33% 26% 46% -10 -2 0.79 23% 0.7 .17 14% .37 57% .21 0.96 32% 56% 39% -7 +1 0.90 48% 0.7 .33 24% .28 67% .18
Nov
15		 Weber St. F+ C+ D- F D 48% 28% 24% D D C+ F D+ C- A+ D- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 23% 29% B A+ C- A B+ C+ D+ C+ D+
1.02 64% 31% 27% -2 0 0.98 31% 0.9 .28 17% .59 68% .40 0.90 56% 15% 19% -13 0 0.77 33% 0.8 .24 17% .37 71% .26
Nov
19		 Utah Valley C+ D D+ F F 34% 32% 34% F+ F C- A+ B+ A B- B B C C A+ C+ C+ 71% 10% 18% F C C C C F F A+ C+
1.02 50% 35% 22% -10 -2 0.79 29% 1.3 .39 16% .35 76% .27 1.12 60% 20% 33% -1 +4 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 16% .42 44% .19
Nov
22		 Northern Iowa D+ D F C+ D 44% 38% 18% F D- C A+ A A+ A+ F A B A+ D C A 35% 21% 44% B+ A D A+ A D- A C A-
0.96 50% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.82 25% 1.4 .35 13% .42 62% .26 0.98 41% 46% 33% -5 0 0.92 24% 0.5 .12 11% .16 70% .11
Nov
25		 New Mexico St. F D+ F F F 27% 34% 39% F F F C F F A+ F A+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ 29% 37% 34% A- A+ F C+ D- A+ F B- F
0.64 55% 21% 13% -19 -3 0.59 17% 1.2 .20 26% .56 66% .37 0.82 50% 47% 7% -13 -3 0.71 41% 0.9 .38 30% .55 70% .39
Nov
26		 South Dakota St. F A- F F F 37% 21% 42% C F D+ F F F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 43% 21% 36% C A+ A A- A A C- A+ B-
0.86 69% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 25% 0.6 .16 27% .52 75% .39 0.70 43% 27% 16% -18 0 0.66 21% 0.9 .19 20% .29 59% .17
Nov
30		 San Jose St. C- D- A F D 55% 24% 22% C D C- B- C+ B- D+ F F A A+ A+ F+ A 31% 31% 38% C A- F A+ A+ D+ B+ D+ B
1.08 54% 50% 27% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.3 .42 17% .25 57% .14 0.95 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 40% 0.5 .21 14% .23 77% .17
Dec
4		 UC Riverside D+ F A A+ C 46% 20% 34% C+ C F A- D C- A+ D- A- A- A+ A+ A A+ 50% 15% 35% F+ A+ D A B- F F B+ F
1.07 35% 50% 53% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.1 .24 16% .45 65% .30 0.88 35% 25% 28% -17 +2 0.71 31% 0.6 .20 15% .48 68% .33
Dec
6		 Cal St. Northridge B+ F B B+ C- 42% 27% 31% C- D+ A+ A+ A+ B- B F C+ B- A+ A F B+ 48% 19% 33% C+ B A+ A A+ F C+ B B-
1.22 45% 43% 38% -2 -1 0.96 41% 1.9 .76 14% .35 67% .23 1.02 43% 27% 42% -5 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .19 10% .29 61% .18
Dec
19		 Belmont F F F D+ F 25% 27% 48% D- F F+ F F A C+ F D- D+ A+ F F D 49% 9% 43% D D D+ B+ C+ B+ C F D+
0.83 38% 21% 32% -11 -2 0.77 23% 0.8 .19 13% .28 59% .17 1.21 48% 75% 55% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 22% .31 76% .24
Dec
21		 North Dakota St. C+ B+ B- C- C+ 46% 24% 30% C+ C+ B- B+ B B B- F C- C A- B F C 31% 27% 42% B- C F C- F A+ F A+ B-
1.12 70% 42% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.0 .33 17% .29 63% .18 1.11 50% 33% 42% +1 -1 1.02 51% 1.1 .54 29% .36 47% .17
Dec
22		 Norfolk St. A A A D B 44% 16% 40% C- B- A- A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ B- C- B+ B+ F D 28% 41% 30% A+ C- A F F B+ D F F
1.31 73% 50% 30% +6 +1 1.16 41% 1.3 .55 15% .34 85% .29 1.03 46% 32% 50% +1 -3 0.98 23% 1.9 .43 22% .38 80% .30
Jan
1		 Cal St. Bakersfield C+ D+ D+ A+ A- 29% 47% 24% F B- D A+ A- F A D- B+ D- B+ B F C- 40% 40% 19% B- C- F B+ F+ F B+ D+ B
1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31 1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23
Jan
3		 Cal St. Fullerton A B+ F A+ A 40% 10% 50% B A A A+ A+ D- B F D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ 28% 31% 41% A+ A+ D- B- D+ C- A+ D A
1.24 68% 20% 46% +11 +1 1.27 39% 1.5 .61 22% .35 58% .20 0.92 27% 24% 41% -9 -2 0.80 30% 0.9 .28 14% .20 75% .15
Jan
8		 Long Beach St. D- D+ B F F+ 46% 32% 22% D F+ D- F F A A+ B A+ A- A- F+ C C 37% 41% 22% B+ C+ A A+ A+ C+ B+ D+ B
1.04 57% 44% 18% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.0 .22 13% .45 79% .35 0.90 50% 45% 33% 0 -3 0.96 19% 0.3 .05 18% .22 77% .17
Jan
10		 Hawaii D+ F C+ F F 68% 20% 12% A F+ A+ D A F D A+ C A A F A+ B 48% 13% 38% D+ B D+ A+ A- C+ A+ B- A+
0.93 41% 40% 17% -14 +2 0.78 44% 0.9 .39 21% .27 80% .21 0.94 48% 71% 25% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.7 .23 20% .23 69% .16
Jan
17		 UC Davis C- D B B+ C- 46% 28% 26% D C- C- B C+ D+ F A+ C C A A+ C+ A+ 28% 21% 51% B- A+ F+ F F D- F A F
1.05 52% 43% 38% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 20% .24 100% .24 1.09 46% 20% 33% -8 -1 0.85 33% 1.2 .41 15% .51 67% .34
Jan
22		 UC Riverside C+ C A+ F C 47% 19% 34% C+ C A+ F B F A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ F A A+ 45% 13% 42% F+ A+ F B- D C+ C+ F D-
1.13 59% 67% 25% +1 +1 1.06 49% 0.8 .37 20% .55 71% .39 0.93 33% 57% 27% -13 +1 0.79 36% 0.8 .29 20% .28 94% .26
Jan
24		 UC San Diego F F+ C D- D 40% 35% 25% F+ D- F B D B- D F F A+ A- C B A- 31% 19% 50% A- A A A+ A+ D- A+ C+ A+
0.87 45% 37% 29% -8 -2 0.84 20% 1.1 .23 14% .22 54% .12 0.84 50% 36% 31% -5 0 0.91 18% 0.0 .00 13% .15 67% .10
Jan
29		 Hawaii C F+ A+ F C+ 53% 31% 17% C- C+ B+ C B D- A+ D+ A A A+ A+ F A 40% 10% 50% D+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A F C+
1.02 45% 61% 20% -3 0 0.95 33% 1.0 .33 19% .42 66% .28 0.90 32% 0% 42% -8 +2 0.89 19% 0.4 .09 18% .27 89% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Cal St. Bakersfield D- C- B F F 57% 20% 23% B F+ B- F F A+ A+ F C+ A A+ C- A+ A 28% 54% 18% A+ A D- D F+ A+ B+ F C-
1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27 0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28
Feb
7		 UC Santa Barbara C A+ D B+ B 36% 41% 23% F C D F F+ C+ F A+ F+ C- D F A D- 36% 28% 36% A- D+ F B D+ B- F C+ F
1.11 75% 35% 38% +6 -3 1.09 23% 0.9 .19 15% .22 92% .20 1.18 65% 69% 29% +9 -1 1.17 39% 0.9 .36 20% .44 76% .33
Feb
12		 Cal Poly F F F A+ D 34% 22% 44% D D D F F F F+ C- D- B+ C A+ C- C+ 28% 10% 62% B+ B- F F+ F A+ C B+ B-
0.92 45% 23% 42% -2 0 0.97 28% 0.5 .15 21% .22 71% .16 0.99 57% 0% 35% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .43 26% .31 72% .22
Feb
14		 Cal St. Fullerton C+ B- A+ A+ A+ 31% 27% 42% F+ A+ C- B C+ D F F F A A+ F A+ A+ 22% 31% 47% A+ A+ B+ F F+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.17 65% 73% 43% +18 -1 1.35 28% 1.1 .32 20% .17 60% .10 0.88 15% 56% 26% -10 -2 0.78 20% 1.7 .34 15% .14 56% .08
Feb
19		 Long Beach St. F B- A+ A+ A+ 55% 23% 23% B- A+ C- F F F A+ F A A+ A+ A A+ A+ 36% 36% 28% B- A+ F F F A- D+ F D-
0.94 64% 67% 44% +13 +1 1.30 27% 0.3 .08 30% .50 65% .33 0.79 37% 26% 7% -23 -2 0.51 33% 1.3 .42 22% .29 82% .24
Feb
21		 UC San Diego C+ F D A+ C 47% 23% 30% C+ C B+ C- B B+ F C+ F D D+ A+ F D- 33% 25% 42% A+ D+ F A C- D A- F C+
1.09 44% 33% 44% -3 0 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 13% .13 71% .09 1.12 63% 25% 45% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.8 .27 14% .20 82% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.9 24.4 21.1 48.5 1st
2nd 0.2 12.1 14.3 26.5 2nd
3rd 2.9 13.2 2.2 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 4.7 4.7 4th
5th 0.3 1.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.6 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.0 8.9 28.1 40.8 21.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 21.1    15.5 5.7
14-6 59.7% 24.4    5.7 12.3 6.3
13-7 10.4% 2.9    0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 48.5% 48.5 21.2 18.3 7.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 21.1% 37.1% 37.1% 12.8 0.0 2.1 4.8 0.9 0.0 13.3
14-6 40.8% 31.6% 31.6% 13.3 0.0 0.9 7.8 4.0 0.2 27.9
13-7 28.1% 19.0% 19.0% 13.5 0.2 2.6 2.4 0.2 22.8
12-8 8.9% 10.1% 10.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 8.0
11-9 1.0% 4.3% 4.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 13.2 73.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.8% 100.0% 12.8 0.3 26.7 61.5 11.6 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.9%
Lose Out 0.5%