UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.9 #120
Expected Predictive Rating +2.3 #126
Pace 70.7 #129
Improvement +1.3 #119

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #264 D C+ C C D+
Defense #43 B+ C+ C B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #69 1.04 #308 -0.1 #178
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #45 0.71 #247 +2.3 #67
Three Pointers 29% #359 0.99 #224 -6.6 #347
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #304 -4.3 #304
Freethrows 0.32 #137 68% #311 0.22 #192
Second Chance 30.8% #168 1.15 #61 0.35 #107
Turnovers 16.6% #192
Total Offense -3.2 #264

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 0.88 #3 +5.6 #30
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #83 0.72 #119 -0.7 #234
Three Pointers 38% #254 1.00 #158 +1.7 #120
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #24 +6.6 #24
Freethrows 0.25 #45 70% #80 0.18 #38
Second Chance 33.4% #295 0.89 #26 0.30 #121
Turnovers 16.6% #166
Total Defense +6.0 #43

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #277 -0.8% #102
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.2% #297 -12.1% #17
Possession Length 17.0 #137 17.2 #156
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #183 0.17 #196
Improvement +2.4 #63 -1.1 #250

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 27.3% 19.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 43.5% 64.0% 21.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.5% 27.3% 19.4%
Second Round1.6% 2.0% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 52.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 37 - 78 - 10
Quad 413 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 139 California Baptist L 61 - 69 67% -3  0 - 1 -10 -13 F D C+ +3 B- C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 216 Weber St. W 79 - 70 81% +8  1 - 1 +3 -6 D+ D- C- +8 A+ B C
 Wed, Nov 19 109 @Utah Valley L 72 - 79 35% -6  1 - 2 -0 +3 F+ B A- -3 C C F
 Sat, Nov 22 108 Northern Iowa L 69 - 70 OT 57% -3  1 - 3 -0 -0 D+ A+ A +0 B A- D
 Tue, Nov 25 141 New Mexico St. L 45 - 57 56% -5  1 - 4 -11 -29 F F F +18 A+ D+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 170 South Dakota St. W 64 - 52 64% +7  2 - 4 +11 -13 F+ F F +24 A+ A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 30 231 @San Jose St. W 72 - 63 65% +5  3 - 4 +8 +1 D C B +7 A- A D
 Thu, Dec 4 291 UC Riverside W 73 - 60 89% +11  4 - 4 1 - 0 +3 -3 C- D+ D+ +5 A+ B- F+
 Sat, Dec 6 219 Cal St. Northridge W 85 - 71 81% -0  5 - 4 2 - 0 +8 +9 D+ A+ C -1 B- A F
 Fri, Dec 19 75 Belmont L 58 - 84 43% -8  5 - 5 -21 -14 F F A+ -8 D- C B+
 Sun, Dec 21 136 North Dakota St. W 74 - 73 55% +3  6 - 5 +3 +6 C+ B B+ -3 C- F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 294 Norfolk St. W 89 - 70 84% +16  7 - 5 +11 +17 B- A+ B- -5 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 300 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 77 78% +6  8 - 5 3 - 0 -1 +7 B- B+ F -8 C F F
 Sat, Jan 3 217 @Cal St. Fullerton W 86 - 64 62% +9  9 - 5 4 - 0 +22 +15 A A+ D +7 A+ C- C-
 Thu, Jan 8 251 Long Beach St. W 74 - 64 84% +7  10 - 5 5 - 0 +2 -4 D- F+ A- +6 C+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 98 @Hawaii L 66 - 67 30% -2  10 - 6 5 - 1 +7 +0 D A- F +7 B- A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 182 @UC Davis L 72 - 75 55% -2  10 - 7 5 - 2 -2 +1 C- C D- -3 A+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 22 291 @UC Riverside W 80 - 66 76% +10  11 - 7 6 - 2 +10 +5 D A+ F +5 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 24 112 @UC San Diego W 61 - 59 36% +1  12 - 7 7 - 2 +8 -9 D- D- B- +17 A A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 98 Hawaii W 69 - 68 52%
 Thu, Feb 5 300 Cal St. Bakersfield W 79 - 65 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 145 @UC Santa Barbara L 70 - 71 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 289 @Cal Poly W 82 - 75 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 217 Cal St. Fullerton W 80 - 71 80%
 Thu, Feb 19 251 @Long Beach St. W 73 - 68 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 112 UC San Diego W 71 - 69 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 219 @Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 75 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 145 UC Santa Barbara W 73 - 68 67%
 Thu, Mar 5 289 Cal Poly W 85 - 72 89%
 Sat, Mar 7 182 UC Davis W 75 - 68 75%
Totals 20 - 10 15 - 5 +3 -3 D C+ C +6 B+ C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.8 11.4 15.6 9.6 2.8 43.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 6.0 13.8 12.0 3.6 0.2 36.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.2 6.5 2.7 0.2 13.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.7 0.9 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 7.0 13.8 20.3 23.6 19.2 9.8 2.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.8    2.8
17-3 97.7% 9.6    8.3 1.3
16-4 81.2% 15.6    10.6 4.9 0.1
15-5 48.2% 11.4    4.9 5.8 0.7 0.0
14-6 18.5% 3.8    0.7 1.9 1.0 0.2
13-7 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 43.5% 43.5 27.3 13.9 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.8% 39.1% 39.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.7
17-3 9.8% 35.0% 35.0% 12.6 0.0 1.5 1.7 0.2 6.4
16-4 19.2% 30.4% 30.4% 12.9 0.0 1.4 3.4 1.0 0.0 13.3
15-5 23.6% 25.7% 25.7% 13.2 0.7 3.6 1.7 0.1 17.5
14-6 20.3% 21.9% 21.9% 13.5 0.2 2.1 1.9 0.2 15.8
13-7 13.8% 14.4% 14.4% 13.7 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.2 11.8
12-8 7.0% 8.3% 8.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.4
11-9 2.5% 3.9% 3.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
10-10 0.8% 0.8
9-11 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 13.1 76.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 12.0 0.5 11.5 74.8 12.8 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%