Toledo
Mid-American
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#116
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#72
Pace70.6#145
Improvement-0.2#194

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#57
First Shot+0.6#160
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#7
Layup/Dunks+1.1#128
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#309
Freethrows+4.4#7
Improvement+0.9#85

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#227
First Shot-0.7#197
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#239
Layups/Dunks-2.1#250
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#244
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#194
Freethrows+2.6#39
Improvement-1.1#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 19.8% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 2.5% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.7 11.8 12.9
.500 or above 91.1% 97.3% 90.4%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 92.1% 86.7%
Conference Champion 13.1% 19.0% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.5% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round12.8% 19.0% 12.1%
Second Round2.2% 3.3% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 9.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 37 - 49 - 9
Quad 412 - 221 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 201   @ Valparaiso W 69-61 58%     1 - 0 +9.2 +1.2 +8.3
  Nov 13, 2021 228   Detroit Mercy W 81-73 81%     2 - 0 +1.9 +1.8 +0.3
  Nov 17, 2021 122   @ Oakland L 59-80 40%     2 - 1 -15.2 -11.4 -3.0
  Nov 22, 2021 198   Charlotte W 98-86 69%     3 - 1 +10.3 +25.6 -15.1
  Nov 23, 2021 163   Tulane W 68-67 62%     4 - 1 +1.3 -5.0 +6.2
  Nov 24, 2021 227   Coastal Carolina W 79-70 72%     5 - 1 +6.1 +6.2 +0.0
  Dec 04, 2021 22   @ Michigan St. L 66-80 10%    
  Dec 07, 2021 212   Bradley W 75-67 79%    
  Dec 11, 2021 80   @ Richmond L 74-80 27%    
  Dec 21, 2021 114   Marshall W 86-83 61%    
  Dec 29, 2021 298   Western Michigan W 81-67 90%    
  Jan 01, 2022 137   @ Kent St. L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 04, 2022 302   @ Central Michigan W 83-75 77%    
  Jan 08, 2022 310   Northern Illinois W 78-63 91%    
  Jan 11, 2022 136   @ Miami (OH) L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 15, 2022 226   @ Bowling Green W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 18, 2022 213   Ball St. W 83-75 77%    
  Jan 22, 2022 72   @ Ohio L 74-81 28%    
  Jan 25, 2022 70   Buffalo L 82-83 47%    
  Jan 28, 2022 165   Akron W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 01, 2022 262   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 213   @ Ball St. W 80-78 59%    
  Feb 08, 2022 72   Ohio L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 12, 2022 310   @ Northern Illinois W 75-66 77%    
  Feb 15, 2022 137   Kent St. W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 19, 2022 302   Central Michigan W 86-72 89%    
  Feb 22, 2022 298   @ Western Michigan W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 136   Miami (OH) W 77-73 64%    
  Mar 01, 2022 70   @ Buffalo L 79-86 28%    
  Mar 04, 2022 226   Bowling Green W 83-74 78%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 3.8 2.6 1.0 0.2 13.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.5 5.6 4.2 1.3 0.2 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.9 6.9 3.7 0.8 0.1 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.1 6.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.7 5.0 1.9 0.1 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 3.1 1.1 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.7 5.3 7.5 10.5 12.8 14.0 13.3 11.4 8.5 5.2 2.8 1.0 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 93.3% 2.6    2.2 0.4
17-3 73.2% 3.8    2.5 1.2 0.2
16-4 41.3% 3.5    1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 14.5% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 7.8 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 75.0% 50.0% 25.0% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 50.0%
19-1 1.0% 59.4% 41.6% 17.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 30.5%
18-2 2.8% 50.4% 42.2% 8.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.4 14.1%
17-3 5.2% 30.1% 27.0% 3.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 3.6 4.2%
16-4 8.5% 25.3% 24.6% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 6.4 0.9%
15-5 11.4% 18.5% 18.4% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 9.3 0.1%
14-6 13.3% 13.7% 13.6% 0.1% 13.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 11.5 0.1%
13-7 14.0% 8.9% 8.9% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 12.8
12-8 12.8% 8.2% 8.2% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 11.8
11-9 10.5% 5.4% 5.4% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.9
10-10 7.5% 3.1% 3.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3
9-11 5.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.1
8-12 3.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.7
7-13 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
6-14 1.1% 1.1
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.1% 12.4% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.5 4.1 2.6 0.9 0.2 86.9 0.8%