Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +0.1 153
Results Rating -1.2 180
Consistency 0.11 8
Pace 70.0 134
Improvement +0.4 174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 102 B- C- B- C- D+
Defense D+ 258 D+ D+ C+ B+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 98 C- 56% 222 +1.0 140
2 Pt. Jumpers 56% 29 A 47% 13 +4.8 18
Three Pointers 31% 348 B 37% 43 -3.3 294
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 267 B- +3.0 86
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 97
Second Chance C- 29.0% 219 C- 1.01 212 C- 0.29 217
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 124
Other Turnovers B 6.3% 63
Turnovers B- 15.2% 87
Freethrows D+ 0.28 267 B 76% 59 C- 0.21 219
Total Offense C+ +2.8 102

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 45% 238 D+ 12.9% 302
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 37% 33 B+ 2.4% 23
Three Pointers B- 89% 82 B- 0.5% 84
Total C- 54% 213 C- 6.2% 246


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 100 D+ 61% 277 +3.4 297
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 319 C+ 37% 130 -1.9 39
Three Pointers 42% 132 D+ 36% 272 +1.8 275
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 323 D+ +2.4 278
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 289
Second Chance D 34.3% 321 C+ 1.01 150 D+ 0.35 275
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.7% 93
Other Turnovers C- 7.1% 209
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 122
Freethrows B+ 0.24 24 C+ 72% 129 B+ 0.17 28
Total Defense D+ -2.7 258

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 217 D+ 8.1% 296
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 146 D 2.2% 325
Three Pointers C 83% 157 D- 0.0% 350
Total C- 57% 223 D 3.8% 320

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 96 17.6 235
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 59 0.21 299
Consistency 0.10 15 0.08 1
Improvement +0.2 170 +0.2 178

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 176 154 134
Results Rating Rank 222 170 144
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 8% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.3 14.4
.500 or above 81% 100% 77%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round6% 8% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Miami (OH) (Away) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 412 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 186 South Alabama L 74 - 76 68% -9  0% 0 - 1 D+ -7 B- +4 A+ D- C F -11 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 189 Marshall L 73 - 85 68% +1  64% 0 - 2 F+ -17 F+ -9 C- F+ D- D- -8 F A A-
 Tue, Nov 11 160 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 40% +4  62% 1 - 2 B+ +13 A- +9 B+ A+ F B +4 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 240 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 77% +4  92% 2 - 2 C -0 C+ +2 A- D+ F D+ -3 D+ C- C
 Wed, Nov 19 215 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 73% +8  86% 3 - 2 B +11 B+ +9 A- C- C+ C+ +1 D- F+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 150 Troy W 75 - 68 49% +2  54% 4 - 2 B- +7 C +1 C C+ C+ A- +7 B+ A C+
 Wed, Nov 26 63 Belmont L 72 - 87 20% -3  18% 4 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -3 C+ C- C+ C- -3 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 168 @Oakland L 97 - 98 42% +1  57% 4 - 4 C +1 B+ +9 B B+ C D- -7 D- D- F
 Sat, Dec 13 156 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 39% +6  67% 4 - 5 C- -2 D+ -3 F D A+ C+ +1 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 3% -20  0% 4 - 6 C -0 B- +5 C C- A+ D -5 D- D+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 275 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 81% -3  34% 5 - 6 1 - 0 C- -4 C -0 F+ B+ C- D+ -4 C C- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 261 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 60% -5  23% 6 - 6 2 - 0 C +0 C +1 D- F A+ C -0 D+ B+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 336 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 80% +11  94% 7 - 6 3 - 0 B- +5 D+ -3 B- F D+ A- +8 D+ C- A+
 Fri, Jan 9 88 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 37% -17  0% 7 - 7 3 - 1 D -11 C- -2 D+ D- B- F+ -9 F D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 219 Ohio W 101 - 85 73% +4  51% 8 - 7 4 - 1 B +10 A+ +22 A+ A+ B+ F -12 F+ F C
 Fri, Jan 16 159 @Kent St. L 84 - 87 39% +0  43% 8 - 8 4 - 2 C -0 B +7 C+ A- C+ D- -7 F+ C- F
 Tue, Jan 20 202 @Massachusetts L 82 - 84 48% -2  20% 8 - 9 4 - 3 C -1 B- +5 B+ C- F D- -7 F D B-
 Sat, Jan 24 166 Bowling Green W 73 - 72 64% -1  31% 9 - 9 5 - 3 C- -3 C +0 D- B A+ C- -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 69 @Akron L 81 - 91 15% -0  34% 9 - 10 5 - 4 C +1 B+ +9 A+ C- D- D- -7 C- F C+
 Sat, Jan 31 295 Ball St. W 73 - 55 85% +12  92% 10 - 10 6 - 4 B- +7 C- -2 C+ F C- A +10 B+ A A-
 Tue, Feb 3 159 Kent St. L 72 - 75 62% +6  91% 10 - 11 6 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -4 C D- B- C- -2 A- F+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 204 @James Madison L 71 - 73 48% -2  27% 10 - 12 C -1 C- -1 B- D B C -1 D+ C B
 Wed, Feb 11 275 @Western Michigan W 90 - 79 63% +5  79% 11 - 12 7 - 5 B- +8 A +13 A+ F A+ D -5 B F F
 Sat, Feb 14 166 @Bowling Green L 70 - 80 41% -6  24% 11 - 13 7 - 6 D+ -8 C+ +2 D B A F -11 D F F
 Sat, Feb 21 248 Eastern Michigan W 94 - 75 78% +17  99% 12 - 13 8 - 6 B +11 A+ +16 A+ F B+ D -5 B- F C+
 Tue, Feb 24 336 Northern Illinois W 79 - 69 91% +7  97% 13 - 13 9 - 6 C- -5 C+ +2 D+ D A D- -7 C- D F
 Sat, Feb 28 219 @Ohio W 79 - 67 52% +9  98% 14 - 13 10 - 6 B+ +12 B+ +8 F A+ A+ B +5 A C F
 Tue, Mar 3 88 @Miami (OH) L 78 - 87 19%
 Fri, Mar 6 214 Buffalo W 83 - 77 72%
Totals 15 - 14 11 - 7 +0 C+ +3 A B- D+ D+ -3 B B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C- A B B- 42% 56% 31% D+ B- C- C- C- B- D+ B C- D+ D+ C+ D+ D+ 42% 16% 42% D D+ D C+ D+ C+ B+ C+ B+
1.13 56% 47% 37% +3 -1 1.07 29% 1.0 .29 15% .28 76% .21 1.12 61% 37% 36% +2 +1 1.09 34% 1.0 .35 18% .24 72% .20
Nov
3		 South Alabama B- B F A+ A+ 24% 14% 61% D+ A+ F A D- C F+ B D F F F D+ F 55% 12% 33% F F F B F A- A- A+ A+
1.15 67% 14% 47% +10 0 1.22 19% 1.3 .26 17% .17 78% .13 1.18 68% 50% 35% +7 +2 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 17% .24 38% .09
Nov
8		 Marshall F+ F A+ C+ C- 41% 29% 30% C- C- C+ F F+ D- C- A- C+ D- F A+ F F 25% 10% 65% F F F+ A+ A A- B A- B+
1.03 35% 69% 35% 0 -1 1.00 37% 0.6 .22 20% .33 79% .26 1.20 85% 20% 44% +15 0 1.33 36% 0.7 .24 21% .21 67% .14
Nov
11		 Wright St. A- A D+ A+ A- 44% 36% 20% F+ B+ A+ B A+ F B+ C+ B+ B F C+ D- F 36% 26% 38% B+ F B- F D+ A+ C F D-
1.22 70% 38% 44% +8 -2 1.16 46% 1.2 .54 23% .37 74% .27 1.07 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 29% .32 87% .27
Nov
15		 Detroit Mercy C+ A A+ D A 40% 17% 43% C- A- C+ F D+ F A+ D+ A+ D+ C D+ C+ C 43% 21% 36% F D+ D C+ C- C C+ A+ B+
1.18 71% 67% 30% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 18% .48 70% .34 1.09 56% 42% 33% -1 0 1.02 35% 0.9 .30 16% .26 65% .17
Nov
19		 Youngstown St. B+ A+ F A+ A- 56% 19% 26% B+ A- B F C- C+ A A+ A+ C+ B- B- F D- 38% 6% 56% D- D- D F F+ A+ B B+ B
1.23 77% 10% 43% +9 +1 1.22 36% 0.8 .29 17% .42 85% .36 1.01 56% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.2 .39 30% .23 67% .15
Nov
24		 Troy C C C+ B- C+ 36% 36% 28% F C C C+ C+ C+ C+ B+ B- A- C F A+ A- 48% 7% 45% D- B+ C- A+ A C+ B+ D- B-
1.09 56% 44% 36% +2 -2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 16% .29 76% .22 0.99 57% 75% 19% -8 +2 0.91 35% 0.6 .23 17% .25 79% .19
Nov
26		 Belmont D+ B B- D C+ 33% 15% 53% B- C+ F A+ C- C+ D- F+ F+ C- D+ F F F 36% 4% 60% D+ F F F F A+ A+ B- A+
1.01 61% 38% 31% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.7 .29 17% .22 69% .15 1.22 67% 50% 50% +18 +2 1.42 40% 1.6 .64 28% .06 67% .04
Dec
6		 Oakland B+ C- A+ F B 46% 25% 29% C B A C- B+ C D+ A- C- D- D+ F B+ C- 67% 6% 27% F D- A+ F D- F B+ B+ B+
1.24 59% 88% 22% +8 0 1.17 45% 0.9 .42 15% .21 79% .17 1.26 60% 50% 29% +1 +4 1.11 21% 2.0 .41 6% .27 70% .19
Dec
13		 Robert Morris D+ F F B- F 43% 35% 22% F F D- D+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D- C+ A- C 42% 23% 35% C- C C- A+ A+ F F B+ F
1.02 45% 22% 36% -10 -2 0.78 24% 0.9 .21 10% .49 87% .42 1.09 65% 36% 29% 0 0 1.02 36% 0.7 .26 13% .47 64% .30
Dec
16		 Michigan St. B- F A B C+ 27% 31% 42% D C D B- C- A+ C A- B- D C A+ F D 48% 15% 37% F D- F B+ D+ A- B- C+ B-
0.96 25% 44% 36% -6 -2 0.86 14% 0.8 .12 6% .25 76% .19 1.29 62% 25% 50% +9 +1 1.22 50% 0.9 .47 21% .34 74% .25
Dec
30		 Western Michigan C A+ A+ F F+ 37% 22% 41% D F+ A+ D- B+ C- A+ D A+ D+ A- C- D- C 36% 27% 38% B- C F A+ C- A- B B- B
1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39 1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18
Jan
3		 Central Michigan C F+ B- B- D+ 37% 41% 22% F D- C F F A+ A+ A+ A+ C C B+ F D 38% 27% 35% C D+ A+ F B+ F A D- B+
1.12 50% 40% 36% -1 -3 0.94 35% 0.8 .27 10% .51 81% .41 1.07 57% 33% 42% +3 -1 1.05 13% 2.0 .25 13% .20 75% .15
Jan
6		 Northern Illinois D+ D- A+ A+ C+ 58% 19% 23% B- B- D- F F D+ C F D+ A- C+ A+ C C- 38% 2% 60% F+ D+ D- B- C- A+ A+ C+ A
1.05 53% 60% 42% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 18% .33 63% .21 0.86 53% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.00 34% 0.8 .26 30% .22 64% .14
Jan
9		 Miami (OH) C- F C- A+ C 28% 41% 31% F D+ C+ F D- B- B+ A+ A F+ F+ F F F 39% 13% 48% D F D- C+ D+ C- A+ F A+
1.05 47% 36% 47% +2 -3 1.00 30% 0.6 .18 16% .34 85% .29 1.25 73% 57% 41% +13 +1 1.30 28% 1.1 .31 14% .13 88% .12
Jan
13		 Ohio A+ B A+ A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ D A+ B F C+ F D- F 31% 33% 37% A F+ F F F C C A- B-
1.44 62% 75% 44% +17 -1 1.34 46% 1.4 .63 13% .28 94% .26 1.21 56% 59% 37% +8 -2 1.13 36% 1.2 .44 16% .32 63% .20
Jan
16		 Kent St. B D F+ A+ C- 53% 13% 35% A- C+ C- A+ A- C+ A+ D A+ D- F+ D+ C+ D- 45% 11% 45% F+ F+ F+ B+ C- F F C+ F
1.17 52% 29% 42% 0 +2 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 15% .48 69% .33 1.21 67% 40% 33% +4 +2 1.13 41% 0.9 .38 13% .57 72% .41
Jan
20		 Massachusetts B- B- A A+ A 36% 34% 30% F B+ C- C- C- F A- A A D- D B F F 45% 12% 43% F F F A D B- F+ C- D-
1.16 65% 50% 43% +10 -2 1.19 26% 1.0 .26 21% .45 80% .36 1.19 64% 33% 43% +8 +2 1.20 43% 1.0 .43 20% .39 68% .26
Jan
24		 Bowling Green C F C C+ F+ 39% 22% 39% D+ D- C A B A+ F A+ F+ C- C- F F F 67% 8% 25% F F F A+ A+ A+ A A- A
1.08 39% 38% 35% -7 0 0.88 28% 1.3 .36 12% .20 92% .18 1.06 59% 75% 46% +8 +4 1.25 36% 0.2 .07 24% .23 67% .15
Jan
27		 Akron B+ C+ F A+ A 52% 10% 38% A A+ D- A- C- D- D B+ D+ D- C C D C+ 52% 9% 39% F C- F B F C+ B- C- C+
1.16 59% 0% 55% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.1 .30 21% .24 77% .18 1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +2 1.15 49% 1.2 .57 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
31		 Ball St. C- A- B C- B- 33% 24% 43% D+ C+ F C- F C- D+ A- C A A C- A+ A- 43% 18% 39% D+ B+ D+ A+ A A- F C F
1.08 69% 42% 33% +4 -1 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 19% .26 86% .22 0.81 42% 38% 24% -13 +1 0.77 28% 0.4 .10 21% .50 70% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Kent St. D+ D+ A+ D C 49% 21% 30% C+ C C+ F D- B- F A D C- A+ B+ C+ A- 31% 24% 44% A- A- F C F+ C- C B- C+
1.06 54% 55% 31% 0 +1 1.04 32% 0.7 .22 15% .26 80% .21 1.10 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.85 42% 1.1 .44 18% .37 71% .27
Feb
7		 James Madison C- B- A+ D+ B+ 38% 31% 31% D- B- F A+ D B F D- F C F C+ B- D+ 38% 13% 49% C- D+ F A C B D+ F F
1.07 60% 50% 31% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.3 .24 11% .25 67% .17 1.10 71% 33% 32% +2 +1 1.09 36% 0.8 .30 20% .32 88% .28
Feb
11		 Western Michigan A C+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 15% 36% B- A+ F A+ F A+ A+ F B+ D A+ D+ B- B 28% 31% 41% A B D+ F F F C F D+
1.31 62% 75% 47% +14 +1 1.34 14% 1.5 .21 7% .44 61% .27 1.15 40% 41% 32% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.6 .50 12% .28 82% .23
Feb
14		 Bowling Green C+ F A+ B+ C- 27% 33% 40% F D B+ C+ B A F B+ F+ F A- A- F D 50% 14% 36% C- D C+ F F F C- B+ C+
1.07 14% 59% 38% -3 -2 0.92 34% 1.1 .37 14% .23 77% .18 1.22 48% 29% 50% +2 +2 1.10 26% 1.4 .37 11% .32 68% .22
Feb
21		 Eastern Michigan A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 19% 27% B A+ F C F B+ B F C D F A+ A B 40% 26% 34% C- B- B- F F C+ D F F
1.32 79% 70% 43% +21 +1 1.46 17% 1.0 .17 13% .35 64% .22 1.05 71% 14% 28% -4 -1 0.92 24% 1.9 .45 18% .29 88% .26
Feb
24		 Northern Illinois C+ C D B- C- 47% 27% 25% D D+ C F+ D A F A+ D D- F B- A+ C- 47% 12% 41% D C- B- F D F B+ B- B+
1.18 62% 33% 36% +1 0 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 12% .24 86% .20 1.03 71% 33% 19% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 16% .29 63% .18
Feb
28		 Ohio B+ F A+ F F 58% 13% 28% A F B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D B C A+ A A+ 49% 18% 33% F A C- B- C F A+ A+ A+
1.19 39% 57% 27% -12 +2 0.83 38% 1.6 .62 8% .23 86% .20 1.01 57% 10% 26% -9 +1 0.86 30% 0.9 .27 11% .20 50% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.6 0.6 3rd
4th 20.8 63.0 13.5 97.3 4th
5th 2.1 2.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 23.0 63.0 14.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 14.1% 8.3% 8.3% 13.1 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 12.9
11-7 63.0% 6.5% 6.5% 14.3 0.4 2.2 1.4 0.0 58.9
10-8 23.0% 4.9% 4.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 21.8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 14.1 93.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 13.1 11.2 71.7 16.7 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.2%
Lose Out 9.1%