Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#170
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#191
Pace71.7#118
Improvement+0.1#171

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#105
First Shot+4.4#71
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#281
Layup/Dunks+2.4#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#233
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement-1.1#259

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#293
First Shot-3.3#289
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#203
Layups/Dunks-5.6#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#301
Freethrows+3.5#18
Improvement+1.2#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.3% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 51.0% 57.0% 27.9%
.500 or above in Conference 65.1% 71.1% 41.9%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.7% 3.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round3.9% 4.3% 2.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 79.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 48 - 314 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 190 South Alabama L 74-76 66%     0 - 1 -6.9 +6.2 -13.3
  Sat, Nov 8 161 Marshall L 73-85 60%     0 - 2 -15.1 -2.2 -12.8
  Tue, Nov 11 153 @Wright St. W 81-71 35%     1 - 2 +13.4 +14.6 -0.7
  Sat, Nov 15 296 Detroit Mercy W 90-83 82%     2 - 2 -3.2 +4.5 -8.3
  Wed, Nov 19 163 Youngstown St. W 92-75 60%     3 - 2 +13.6 +13.5 -1.0
  Mon, Nov 24 139 Troy W 75-68 42%     4 - 2 +8.5 +4.7 +3.9
  Wed, Nov 26 69 Belmont L 72-87 20%     4 - 3 -7.0 +0.8 -7.5
  Sat, Dec 6 137 @Oakland L 97-98 30%     4 - 4 +3.7 +12.7 -8.9
  Sat, Dec 13 185 @Robert Morris L 70-75 42%     4 - 5 -3.7 -1.2 -2.6
  Tue, Dec 16 16 @Michigan St. L 69-92 4%     4 - 6 -2.6 +6.9 -8.9
  Tue, Dec 30 280 Western Michigan W 84-75 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 323 @Central Michigan W 80-74 72%    
  Tue, Jan 6 328 @Northern Illinois W 83-77 72%    
  Fri, Jan 9 106 Miami (OH) L 82-84 43%    
  Tue, Jan 13 189 Ohio W 83-79 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 124 @Kent St. L 82-88 29%    
  Tue, Jan 20 164 @Massachusetts L 79-82 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 117 Bowling Green L 76-77 46%    
  Tue, Jan 27 59 @Akron L 82-95 13%    
  Sat, Jan 31 306 Ball St. W 79-68 83%    
  Tue, Feb 3 124 Kent St. L 84-85 50%    
  Wed, Feb 11 280 @Western Michigan W 81-78 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 117 @Bowling Green L 73-80 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 216 Eastern Michigan W 78-72 70%    
  Tue, Feb 24 328 Northern Illinois W 86-74 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 189 @Ohio L 80-82 43%    
  Fri, Mar 6 196 Buffalo W 82-77 67%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.3 4.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 6.8 4.3 0.6 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 6.9 4.9 0.7 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.6 5.0 1.0 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.6 1.0 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.3 2.3 3.7 1.1 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.0 0.1 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 6.2 9.9 13.4 15.6 15.7 13.4 9.7 6.2 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 83.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 55.4% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 22.8% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.4% 23.4% 23.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.2% 14.6% 14.6% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-4 3.0% 15.8% 15.8% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.5
13-5 6.2% 10.2% 10.2% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.5
12-6 9.7% 7.7% 7.7% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.9
11-7 13.4% 4.7% 4.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 12.8
10-8 15.7% 3.7% 3.7% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 15.1
9-9 15.6% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 15.2
8-10 13.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 13.3
7-11 9.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.9
6-12 6.2% 6.2
5-13 3.3% 3.3
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.2 96.1 0.0%