Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 #162
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #194
Pace 70.1 #145
Improvement +0.5 #157

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #109 C+ C- C+ C D+
Defense #258 D C B- B+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 1.13 #203 +1.1 #136
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #56 0.89 #37 +4.5 #19
Three Pointers 31% #346 1.12 #47 -3.3 #297
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #111 +2.3 #111
Freethrows 0.29 #249 77% #24 0.22 #177
Second Chance 30.1% #204 0.97 #261 0.29 #226
Turnovers 16.0% #118
Total Offense +2.3 #109

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #92 1.22 #260 -3.3 #295
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #329 0.81 #282 +1.5 #71
Three Pointers 42% #128 1.12 #322 -2.9 #307
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #318 -4.8 #319
Freethrows 0.24 #19 70% #65 0.17 #18
Second Chance 34.8% #322 0.93 #56 0.32 #206
Turnovers 18.8% #80
Total Defense -2.6 #258

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #275 1.8% #329
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.9% #79 7.3% #311
Possession Length 16.7 #111 17.3 #200
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #49 0.21 #296
Improvement -0.7 #221 +1.2 #119

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.1% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 50.7% 68.7% 34.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.4% 88.4% 84.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.4% 5.1% 3.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 48.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 410 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 199 South Alabama L 74 - 76 69% -9  0 - 1 -7 +7 A+ D- C+ -15 F F+ B
 Sat, Nov 8 153 Marshall L 73 - 85 60% +1  0 - 2 -15 -2 C D D+ -12 F A B-
 Tue, Nov 11 146 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 34% +4  1 - 2 +14 +13 B+ A+ F+ +2 F+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 275 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 81% +4  2 - 2 -2 +4 B+ D+ F -7 D+ C C
 Wed, Nov 19 224 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 73% +8  3 - 2 +10 +11 A- C- B -1 D- D A+
 Mon, Nov 24 142 Troy W 75 - 68 44% +2  4 - 2 +8 +4 C- C+ B- +5 B+ A C
 Wed, Nov 26 73 Belmont L 72 - 87 22% -3  4 - 3 -7 -1 C+ D+ B- -6 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 128 @Oakland L 97 - 98 30% +1  4 - 4 +4 +13 B B+ C -9 D D F
 Sat, Dec 13 219 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 50% +6  4 - 5 -5 -3 F D- A+ -2 C A F
 Tue, Dec 16 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 3% -20  4 - 6 +0 +9 C C- A+ -8 D- C- B
 Tue, Dec 30 279 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 81% -3  5 - 6 1 - 0 -5 +2 D- B- C- -7 C+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 293 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 66% -5  6 - 6 2 - 0 -1 +3 D- F A+ -4 D B F
 Tue, Jan 6 308 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 70% +11  7 - 6 3 - 0 +8 +0 B- F C- +8 C- C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 92 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 38% -17  7 - 7 3 - 1 -11 -0 D+ D B -11 F+ D C-
 Tue, Jan 13 190 Ohio W 101 - 85 67% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +11 +25 A+ A+ A- -14 D- F C-
 Fri, Jan 16 143 @Kent St. L 84 - 87 33% +0  8 - 8 4 - 2 +1 +11 C+ A- C -9 F+ C F
 Tue, Jan 20 174 @Massachusetts L 82 - 84 41% -2  8 - 9 4 - 3 -0 +9 B+ D+ F+ -9 F D C
 Sat, Jan 24 148 Bowling Green W 73 - 72 57% -1  9 - 9 5 - 3 -1 +3 D- B- A+ -4 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 64 @Akron L 81 - 91 13% -0  9 - 10 5 - 4 +2 +12 A+ D+ D+ -10 C F C
 Sat, Jan 31 305 Ball St. W 73 - 55 85% +12  10 - 10 6 - 4 +7 -2 C F C +9 B+ A A-
 Tue, Feb 3 143 Kent St. L 72 - 75 56% +6  10 - 11 6 - 5 -5 -0 C+ D C+ -5 B+ D- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 204 @James Madison L 76 - 77 48%
 Wed, Feb 11 279 @Western Michigan W 81 - 78 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 148 @Bowling Green L 75 - 79 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 227 Eastern Michigan W 76 - 70 73%
 Tue, Feb 24 308 Northern Illinois W 82 - 70 86%
 Sat, Feb 28 190 @Ohio L 80 - 81 45%
 Tue, Mar 3 92 @Miami (OH) L 78 - 87 21%
 Fri, Mar 6 198 Buffalo W 82 - 77 68%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 +0 +2 C+ C- C+ -3 D C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.4 3.6 1.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 15.9 16.8 5.3 0.4 40.6 4th
5th 0.3 9.3 12.1 1.4 0.0 23.2 5th
6th 0.0 3.5 10.0 2.3 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.7 5.1 2.1 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 1.6 0.1 3.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 2.8 10.6 23.7 30.7 21.6 8.9 1.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.4% 12.1% 12.1% 12.4 0.1 0.1 1.2
12-6 8.9% 7.7% 7.7% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 8.2
11-7 21.6% 5.7% 5.7% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 20.4
10-8 30.7% 4.8% 4.8% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 29.2
9-9 23.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 23.1
8-10 10.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.1 0.2 10.4
7-11 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 14.2 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%