Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +0.9 143
Results Rating -1.0 180
Consistency 0.11 12
Pace 69.8 135
Improvement +1.9 120

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 95 B- C B- D+ C-
Defense C- 252 D C- B- A- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 90 C- 56% 222 +1.2 132
2 Pt. Jumpers 54% 35 A 48% 11 +4.8 13
Three Pointers 31% 346 B 37% 63 -3.4 294
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 254 B- +3.1 82
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 95
Second Chance C- 29.1% 216 C 1.04 163 C 0.30 194
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.0% 138
Other Turnovers B 6.0% 44
Turnovers B- 15.0% 77
Freethrows D 0.27 296 B- 75% 77 D+ 0.20 252
Total Offense B- +3.3 95

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 223 D+ 12.9% 300
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 38% 30 B+ 2.3% 18
Three Pointers B 89% 76 B- 0.5% 85
Total C 54% 197 C- 6.2% 250


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 99 D+ 61% 263 +3.0 285
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 323 C- 39% 230 -1.6 63
Three Pointers 42% 128 D 36% 296 +2.3 293
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 321 D +2.9 293
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 306
Second Chance D 34.3% 319 C+ 0.99 111 C- 0.34 261
Turnovers from Steals B 11.0% 62
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 236
Turnovers B- 17.9% 103
Freethrows B+ 0.24 17 B- 71% 89 A- 0.17 16
Total Defense C- -2.4 252

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 201 D+ 8.2% 290
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 131 D 2.0% 327
Three Pointers C+ 81% 106 D- 0.1% 349
Total C 56% 198 D 3.7% 320

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 97 17.7 255
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 63 0.20 279
Consistency 0.11 67 0.08 1
Improvement +1.3 124 +0.6 158

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 155 142 130
Results Rating Rank 200 169 127
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 11% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round6% 11% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 412 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 206 South Alabama L 74 - 76 72% -9  0% 0 - 1 D+ -7 C+ +3 A D C F -11 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 201 Marshall L 73 - 85 72% +1  64% 0 - 2 F+ -17 F+ -9 C- F+ D- D- -8 F A A-
 Tue, Nov 11 145 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 39% +4  62% 1 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 B+ A+ F B +4 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 219 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 75% +4  92% 2 - 2 C +1 B- +4 A- C- F+ D+ -4 D+ C- C
 Wed, Nov 19 220 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 76% +8  86% 3 - 2 B +11 B+ +9 A- C- C+ C+ +1 F+ F+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 141 Troy W 75 - 68 50% +2  54% 4 - 2 B- +8 C +1 C C+ C+ B+ +7 B+ A C+
 Wed, Nov 26 75 Belmont L 72 - 87 26% -3  18% 4 - 3 D+ -7 D -4 C C- C+ C- -3 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 173 @Oakland L 97 - 98 45% +1  57% 4 - 4 C +1 B+ +9 B B+ C D- -7 D- D- F
 Sat, Dec 13 163 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 42% +6  67% 4 - 5 C- -2 D+ -3 F D A+ C+ +1 C A F
 Tue, Dec 16 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 3% -20  0% 4 - 6 C -0 B- +4 C C- A+ D+ -4 D- D+ A
 Tue, Dec 30 276 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 84% -3  34% 5 - 6 1 - 0 C- -5 C -0 F+ B+ C- D+ -5 C C- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 269 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 65% -5  23% 6 - 6 2 - 0 C -0 C +0 D- F A+ C -1 D+ B F
 Tue, Jan 6 342 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 84% +11  94% 7 - 6 3 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -4 C+ F D+ A- +8 D+ C- A+
 Fri, Jan 9 92 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 42% -17  0% 7 - 7 3 - 1 D -11 D+ -2 C- D- B- F+ -9 F D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 223 Ohio W 101 - 85 76% +4  51% 8 - 7 4 - 1 B +10 A+ +21 A+ A+ B+ F -12 F+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 16 156 @Kent St. L 84 - 87 41% +0  43% 8 - 8 4 - 2 C +0 B +6 C+ A- C+ D -6 F+ C- F
 Tue, Jan 20 200 @Massachusetts L 82 - 84 50% -2  20% 8 - 9 4 - 3 C -1 B- +5 A- D+ F D- -7 F D B-
 Sat, Jan 24 166 Bowling Green W 73 - 72 66% -1  31% 9 - 9 5 - 3 C- -2 C +0 D- B A+ C- -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 68 @Akron L 81 - 91 15% -0  34% 9 - 10 5 - 4 C+ +2 B+ +9 A+ C D- D- -7 C F C+
 Sat, Jan 31 280 Ball St. W 73 - 55 85% +12  92% 10 - 10 6 - 4 B- +8 C- -2 C+ F D+ A +10 A- A A-
 Tue, Feb 3 156 Kent St. L 72 - 75 64% +6  91% 10 - 11 6 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -4 C D- B- C- -2 A F+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 208 @James Madison L 71 - 73 52% -2  27% 10 - 12 C -1 C- -1 B- D B C -1 D+ C B
 Wed, Feb 11 276 @Western Michigan W 90 - 79 67% +5  79% 11 - 12 7 - 5 B- +7 A +13 A+ F A+ D -5 B+ F F
 Sat, Feb 14 166 @Bowling Green L 70 - 80 43% -6  24% 11 - 13 7 - 6 D+ -7 C+ +3 D B+ A- F -11 D F F
 Sat, Feb 21 248 Eastern Michigan W 94 - 75 80% +17  99% 12 - 13 8 - 6 B +11 A+ +16 A+ F B+ D -5 B- F C+
 Tue, Feb 24 342 Northern Illinois W 79 - 69 93% +7  97% 13 - 13 9 - 6 D+ -6 C+ +2 D+ D+ A D- -7 D+ D- F
 Sat, Feb 28 223 @Ohio W 79 - 67 55% +9  98% 14 - 13 10 - 6 B+ +12 B +7 F A+ A+ B+ +5 A C F
 Tue, Mar 3 92 @Miami (OH) L 72 - 74 22% -6  0% 14 - 14 10 - 7 B- +7 C +0 D B B+ B+ +7 F+ A+ A+
 Fri, Mar 6 218 Buffalo W 98 - 78 75% +6  90% 15 - 14 11 - 7 B+ +14 A+ +25 A+ A A+ F -10 F C C+
 Thu, Mar 12 166 Bowling Green W 77 - 76 55%
Totals 16 - 14 11 - 7 +1 B- +3 D B- C- C- -2 B B- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C- A B B- 42% 54% 31% C- B- C- C C B- D B- D+ C- D+ C- D D 42% 16% 42% D D D C+ C- B- B+ B- A-
1.13 56% 48% 37% +3 -1 1.07 29% 1.0 .30 15% .27 75% .20 1.12 61% 39% 36% +3 +1 1.10 34% 1.0 .34 18% .24 71% .19
Nov
3		 South Alabama C+ B F A+ A+ 24% 14% 61% D+ A F A+ D C F+ B D F F F D+ F 55% 12% 33% F F F B F A- A- A+ A+
1.15 67% 14% 47% +10 0 1.22 19% 1.3 .26 17% .17 78% .13 1.18 68% 50% 35% +7 +2 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 17% .24 38% .09
Nov
8		 Marshall F+ F A+ C+ C- 41% 29% 30% C- C- C+ F F+ D- C- A- C+ D- F A+ F F 25% 10% 65% F F F+ A+ A A- B A- B
1.03 35% 69% 35% 0 -1 1.00 37% 0.6 .22 20% .33 79% .26 1.20 85% 20% 44% +15 0 1.33 36% 0.7 .24 21% .21 67% .14
Nov
11		 Wright St. A- A D+ A+ A 44% 36% 20% F+ B+ A+ B A+ F B+ C B+ B F C+ D- F 36% 26% 38% B+ F B- F D+ A+ C F D-
1.22 70% 38% 44% +8 -1 1.16 46% 1.2 .54 23% .37 74% .27 1.07 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 29% .32 87% .27
Nov
15		 Detroit Mercy B- A A+ D A 40% 17% 43% C- A- C+ D- C- F+ A+ D+ A+ D+ C D+ C+ C 43% 21% 36% F D+ D C+ C- C C+ A+ B+
1.18 71% 67% 30% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 18% .48 70% .34 1.09 56% 42% 33% -1 0 1.02 35% 0.9 .30 16% .26 65% .17
Nov
19		 Youngstown St. B+ A+ F A+ A- 56% 19% 26% B+ A- B F C- C+ A A+ A+ C+ B- B- F F+ 38% 6% 56% D- F+ D F F+ A+ B- B+ B
1.23 77% 10% 43% +9 +2 1.22 36% 0.8 .29 17% .42 85% .36 1.01 56% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.2 .39 30% .23 67% .15
Nov
24		 Troy C C- C+ B- C+ 36% 36% 28% F C C B- C+ C+ C+ B+ B- B+ C F A+ A- 48% 7% 45% D- B+ C A+ A C+ B+ D- B
1.09 56% 44% 36% +2 -2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 16% .29 76% .22 0.99 57% 75% 19% -8 +2 0.91 35% 0.6 .23 17% .25 79% .19
Nov
26		 Belmont D B- B- D C 33% 15% 53% B- C F A+ C- C+ D- F F+ C- D+ F F F 36% 4% 60% D+ F F F F A+ A+ B- A+
1.01 61% 38% 31% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.7 .29 17% .22 69% .15 1.22 67% 50% 50% +18 +2 1.42 40% 1.6 .64 28% .06 67% .04
Dec
6		 Oakland B+ C- A+ F B 46% 25% 29% C B A C- B+ C D A- C- D- D+ F B+ C- 67% 6% 27% F D- A+ F D- F B B+ B+
1.24 59% 88% 22% +8 0 1.17 45% 0.9 .42 15% .21 79% .17 1.26 60% 50% 29% 0 +4 1.11 21% 2.0 .41 6% .27 70% .19
Dec
13		 Robert Morris D+ F F B F 43% 35% 22% F F D- D+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D- C+ A- C 42% 23% 35% C- C C A+ A F F B F
1.02 45% 22% 36% -10 -2 0.78 24% 0.9 .21 10% .49 87% .42 1.09 65% 36% 29% 0 0 1.02 36% 0.7 .26 13% .47 64% .30
Dec
16		 Michigan St. B- F A B C 27% 31% 42% D C D B- C- A+ C B+ C+ D+ C A+ F D 48% 15% 37% F D- F A- D+ A B- B- B-
0.96 25% 44% 36% -6 -2 0.86 14% 0.8 .12 6% .25 76% .19 1.29 62% 25% 50% +9 +1 1.22 50% 0.9 .47 21% .34 74% .25
Dec
30		 Western Michigan C A+ A+ F F+ 37% 22% 41% D F+ A+ D B+ C- A+ D A+ D+ A- C- D- C 36% 27% 38% C+ C F A+ C- A- B B- B
1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39 1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18
Jan
3		 Central Michigan C F+ B- B- D+ 37% 41% 22% F D- C F F A+ A+ A+ A+ C C B+ F D 38% 27% 35% C D+ A+ F B F A F+ B+
1.12 50% 40% 36% -1 -3 0.94 35% 0.8 .27 10% .51 81% .41 1.07 57% 33% 42% +3 -1 1.05 13% 2.0 .25 13% .20 75% .15
Jan
6		 Northern Illinois D+ D- A+ A C+ 58% 19% 23% B- C+ D- F F D+ C F D+ A- C+ A+ C D+ 38% 2% 60% F+ D+ F+ B- C- A+ A+ B- A+
1.05 53% 60% 42% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 18% .33 63% .21 0.86 53% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.00 34% 0.8 .26 30% .22 64% .14
Jan
9		 Miami (OH) D+ F C- A+ C+ 28% 41% 31% F C- C+ F D- B- A- A+ A+ F+ F+ F F F 39% 13% 48% D F D C+ D+ C- A+ F A+
1.05 47% 36% 47% +2 -3 1.00 30% 0.6 .18 16% .34 85% .29 1.25 73% 57% 41% +13 +1 1.30 28% 1.1 .31 14% .13 88% .12
Jan
13		 Ohio A+ B A+ A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ D A+ B- F C+ F D- F 31% 33% 37% A F+ F F F C+ C A B-
1.44 62% 75% 44% +17 -1 1.34 46% 1.4 .63 13% .28 94% .26 1.21 56% 59% 37% +8 -2 1.13 36% 1.2 .44 16% .32 63% .20
Jan
16		 Kent St. B D F+ A+ C- 53% 13% 35% A- C+ C- A+ A- C+ A+ D A+ D F C- C+ D- 45% 11% 45% F F+ F+ B+ C- F F C+ F
1.17 52% 29% 42% 0 +2 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 15% .48 69% .33 1.21 67% 40% 33% +4 +2 1.13 41% 0.9 .38 13% .57 72% .41
Jan
20		 Massachusetts B- B- A+ A+ A 36% 34% 30% F A- C- C- D+ F A- A A D- D B F F 45% 12% 43% F F F A D B- D- C- D-
1.16 65% 50% 43% +10 -2 1.19 26% 1.0 .26 21% .45 80% .36 1.19 64% 33% 43% +8 +2 1.20 43% 1.0 .43 20% .39 68% .26
Jan
24		 Bowling Green C F C C+ F+ 39% 22% 39% C- D- C A+ B A+ F A+ F+ C- C- F F F 67% 8% 25% F F F A+ A+ A+ A A- A
1.08 39% 38% 35% -7 0 0.88 28% 1.3 .36 12% .20 92% .18 1.06 59% 75% 46% +8 +4 1.25 36% 0.2 .07 24% .23 67% .15
Jan
27		 Akron B+ C+ F A+ A 52% 10% 38% A A+ D A- C D- D+ B+ C- D- C C D C+ 52% 9% 39% F C F B- F C+ C+ D+ C
1.16 59% 0% 55% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.1 .30 21% .24 77% .18 1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +2 1.15 49% 1.2 .57 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
31		 Ball St. C- A- B- C- B- 33% 24% 43% D+ C+ F C- F D+ D+ A C A A C- A+ A 43% 18% 39% D+ A- D+ A+ A A- F C F
1.08 69% 42% 33% +4 -1 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 19% .26 86% .22 0.81 42% 38% 24% -13 +1 0.77 28% 0.4 .10 21% .50 70% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Kent St. D+ D+ A+ D C 49% 21% 30% C+ C C+ F D- B- F A D- C- A+ A- C+ A 31% 24% 44% B+ A F C F+ C- C B- C+
1.06 54% 55% 31% 0 +1 1.04 32% 0.7 .22 15% .26 80% .21 1.10 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.85 42% 1.1 .44 18% .37 71% .27
Feb
7		 James Madison C- B- A+ D+ B+ 38% 31% 31% D- B- F A+ D B F F+ F C F C+ B- D+ 38% 13% 49% C- D+ F A+ C B D+ F F
1.07 60% 50% 31% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.3 .24 11% .25 67% .17 1.10 71% 33% 32% +2 +1 1.09 36% 0.8 .30 20% .32 88% .28
Feb
11		 Western Michigan A C+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 15% 36% B- A+ F A+ F A+ A+ F B+ D A+ D+ B- B 28% 31% 41% A B+ D+ F F F C+ F D+
1.31 62% 75% 47% +14 +1 1.34 14% 1.5 .21 7% .44 61% .27 1.15 40% 41% 32% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.6 .50 12% .28 82% .23
Feb
14		 Bowling Green C+ F A+ B+ C- 27% 33% 40% F D B+ C+ B+ A- F B F+ F A- A- F D 50% 14% 36% D+ D B- F F F C- B+ C
1.07 14% 59% 38% -3 -2 0.92 34% 1.1 .37 14% .23 77% .18 1.22 48% 29% 50% +2 +2 1.10 26% 1.4 .37 11% .32 68% .22
Feb
21		 Eastern Michigan A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 19% 27% B+ A+ F C- F B+ B F C D F A+ A B- 40% 26% 34% D+ B- B- F F C+ D F F
1.32 79% 70% 43% +21 +1 1.46 17% 1.0 .17 13% .35 64% .22 1.05 71% 14% 28% -4 -1 0.92 24% 1.9 .45 18% .29 88% .26
Feb
24		 Northern Illinois C+ C D C+ D+ 47% 27% 25% D D+ C F+ D+ A F A+ D D- F B- A+ C- 47% 12% 41% D D+ C+ F D- F B+ B- B+
1.18 62% 33% 36% +1 0 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 12% .24 86% .20 1.03 71% 33% 19% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 16% .29 63% .18
Feb
28		 Ohio B F A+ F F 58% 13% 28% A F B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D- B+ C A+ A A+ 49% 18% 33% F A C- B C F A+ A+ A+
1.19 39% 57% 27% -12 +2 0.83 38% 1.6 .62 8% .23 86% .20 1.01 57% 10% 26% -9 +1 0.86 30% 0.9 .27 11% .20 50% .10
Mar
3		 Miami (OH) C D A+ F D 47% 25% 28% C+ D C A+ B B+ F A+ F B+ A- F F+ F 25% 17% 58% B F+ B A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+
1.05 54% 53% 24% -3 0 0.97 29% 1.2 .34 15% .03 100% .03 1.08 54% 89% 40% +13 -1 1.27 19% 0.3 .06 22% .26 57% .15
Mar
6		 Buffalo A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 19% 41% C- A+ C A+ A A+ C- F D F D+ F F F 49% 10% 41% F F F A+ C C+ A+ C- A+
1.53 68% 70% 45% +17 0 1.37 33% 1.4 .47 9% .26 67% .17 1.22 63% 60% 50% +14 +2 1.35 37% 0.8 .30 17% .15 75% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 6.2% 6.2% 13.9 0.0 1.2 4.5 0.5 93.8
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 13.9 93.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.2% 100.0% 13.9 0.2 19.0 72.1 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 35.4%
Lose Out 44.6%