Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 171
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 193
Pace 70.0 136
Improvement -1.5 243

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 111 B- C- B- C D+
Defense D+ 264 D C- B- B+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 113 C- 56% 234 +0.6 154
2 Pt. Jumpers 56% 26 A- 47% 17 +5.1 11
Three Pointers 31% 346 B 37% 38 -3.2 288
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 280 B- +3.2 79
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 103
Second Chance C- 29.2% 219 C- 0.99 232 C- 0.29 230
Turnovers B- 15.6% 105
Freethrows D+ 0.28 252 B 76% 57 C 0.22 199
Total Offense C+ +2.3 111

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 248 D+ 13.1% 293
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 43 B+ 2.0% 17
Three Pointers B- 88% 112 B- 0.5% 93
Total C- 53% 244 C- 6.1% 232

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 110 D+ 61% 252 +2.8 276
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 316 C- 40% 253 -1.4 80
Three Pointers 42% 127 D 37% 310 +2.7 306
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 310 D +3.2 302
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 308
Second Chance D- 34.9% 328 B- 0.97 97 C- 0.34 252
Turnovers B- 18.3% 97
Freethrows B+ 0.24 25 C+ 72% 133 B+ 0.17 29
Total Defense D+ -2.9 264

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 50% 194 D+ 8.6% 270
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 115 F+ 0.9% 357
Three Pointers C+ 83% 112 D- -0.1% 93
Total C 57% 205 D 3.7% 321

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 112 17.5 217
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 65 0.21 307
Improvement -1.2 #250 -0.3 #213

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 36% 45% 10%
.500 or above in Conference 93% 98% 78%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 73.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 84 - 14
Quad 411 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 181 South Alabama L 74 - 76 64% -9  0% 0 - 1 D+ -6 B- +4 A F+ C+ F -10 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 176 Marshall L 73 - 85 63% +1  64% 0 - 2 F+ -16 D- -7 C- D- D- F+ -9 F A A-
 Tue, Nov 11 151 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 35% +4  62% 1 - 2 B+ +13 A- +10 B+ A+ F B +4 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 254 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 77% +4  92% 2 - 2 C -1 C+ +2 A- D+ F D+ -4 D+ C C
 Wed, Nov 19 203 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 68% +8  86% 3 - 2 B+ +11 B+ +9 A- C- B- B- +2 D- D- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 142 Troy W 75 - 68 43% +2  54% 4 - 2 B +8 C +1 C- C+ B- A- +7 B+ A C+
 Wed, Nov 26 68 Belmont L 72 - 87 20% -3  18% 4 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -4 C+ D+ B- C- -3 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 160 @Oakland L 97 - 98 37% +1  57% 4 - 4 C+ +2 B+ +9 B B+ C D- -7 D- D- F
 Sat, Dec 13 178 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 41% +6  67% 4 - 5 C- -3 D -4 F D A+ C+ +1 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 3% -20  0% 4 - 6 C -1 B- +5 C C- A+ D -5 D- D+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 286 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 81% -3  34% 5 - 6 1 - 0 D+ -5 C- -1 F+ B+ C- D+ -4 C C- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 273 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 61% -5  23% 6 - 6 2 - 0 C -1 C +0 D- F A+ C -1 D B F
 Tue, Jan 6 321 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 73% +11  94% 7 - 6 3 - 0 B- +7 C- -2 B- F C- A +9 D+ C A+
 Fri, Jan 9 86 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 34% -17  0% 7 - 7 3 - 1 D -10 D+ -3 D+ D- B- D- -8 F D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 209 Ohio W 101 - 85 69% +4  51% 8 - 7 4 - 1 B +10 A+ +22 A+ A+ A- F -12 D- F C
 Fri, Jan 16 144 @Kent St. L 84 - 87 33% +0  43% 8 - 8 4 - 2 C +1 B+ +8 C+ A- C+ D- -7 F+ C- F
 Tue, Jan 20 180 @Massachusetts L 82 - 84 41% -2  20% 8 - 9 4 - 3 C -0 B +6 A- C- F D -6 F D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 162 Bowling Green W 73 - 72 60% -1  31% 9 - 9 5 - 3 C- -2 C +1 D- B A+ C- -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 77 @Akron L 81 - 91 15% -0  34% 9 - 10 5 - 4 C +1 B+ +8 A+ C- D- D- -8 C- F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 314 Ball St. W 73 - 55 86% +12  92% 10 - 10 6 - 4 B- +6 D+ -4 C F C- A +10 B+ A A-
 Tue, Feb 3 144 Kent St. L 72 - 75 56% +6  91% 10 - 11 6 - 5 D+ -5 D+ -3 C+ D- C+ C- -2 A- D- C-
 Sat, Feb 7 211 @James Madison L 71 - 73 47% -2  27% 10 - 12 C- -2 C- -2 B- D B C -0 D+ C B
 Wed, Feb 11 286 @Western Michigan W 90 - 79 63% +5  79% 11 - 12 7 - 5 B- +7 A +12 A+ F A+ D+ -5 B+ F F
 Sat, Feb 14 162 @Bowling Green L 70 - 80 37% -6  24% 11 - 13 7 - 6 D+ -7 C+ +3 D B A F -11 D F F
 Sat, Feb 21 239 Eastern Michigan W 77 - 70 74%
 Tue, Feb 24 321 Northern Illinois W 81 - 69 88%
 Sat, Feb 28 209 @Ohio L 80 - 81 47%
 Tue, Mar 3 86 @Miami (OH) L 78 - 88 17%
 Fri, Mar 6 215 Buffalo W 81 - 76 69%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -1 C+ +2 B+ B- D+ D+ -3 B B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C- A- B B- 41% 56% 31% D+ B- C- C- C- B- D+ B C D+ D+ C- D D 41% 16% 42% D D D- B- C- B- B+ C+ B+
1.12 56% 47% 37% +3 -1 1.07 29% 1.0 .29 16% .28 76% .22 1.13 61% 40% 37% +3 +1 1.10 35% 1.0 .34 18% .24 72% .20
Nov
3		 South Alabama B- B F A+ A+ 24% 14% 61% D+ A F A F+ C+ D B D+ F F F D F 55% 12% 33% F F F B F A- A- A+ A+
1.15 67% 14% 47% +10 0 1.22 19% 1.3 .26 17% .17 78% .13 1.18 68% 50% 35% +7 +2 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 17% .24 38% .09
Nov
8		 Marshall D- F A+ C+ C- 41% 29% 30% C C- B- F D- D- C- A C+ F+ F A+ F F 25% 10% 65% F F D- A+ A A- B A- B+
1.03 35% 69% 35% 0 -1 1.00 37% 0.6 .22 20% .33 79% .26 1.20 85% 20% 44% +15 0 1.33 36% 0.7 .24 21% .21 67% .14
Nov
11		 Wright St. A- A D+ A+ A- 44% 36% 20% F+ B+ A+ B A+ F A- B- A- B F C+ D- F 36% 26% 38% B+ F B- F D+ A+ C F D-
1.22 70% 38% 44% +8 -1 1.16 46% 1.2 .54 23% .37 74% .27 1.07 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 29% .32 87% .27
Nov
15		 Detroit Mercy C+ A A+ D A 40% 17% 43% C- A- C+ F+ D+ F A+ D+ A+ D+ C D+ C+ C 43% 21% 36% F D+ D+ B- C C C A+ B
1.18 71% 67% 30% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 18% .48 70% .34 1.09 56% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 35% 0.9 .30 16% .26 65% .17
Nov
19		 Youngstown St. B+ A+ F A+ A- 56% 19% 26% B+ A- B F C- B- A- A+ A+ B- B- B F D- 38% 6% 56% D- D- D+ F+ D- A+ B- B+ B
1.23 77% 10% 43% +9 +2 1.22 36% 0.8 .29 17% .42 85% .36 1.01 56% 33% 41% +5 +2 1.15 32% 1.2 .39 30% .23 67% .15
Nov
24		 Troy C C C+ B- C+ 36% 36% 28% F C- C+ C+ C+ B- C+ A- B- A- C F A+ A 48% 7% 45% D- B+ C- A+ A C+ B D- B-
1.09 56% 44% 36% +2 -2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 16% .29 76% .22 0.99 57% 75% 19% -8 +2 0.91 35% 0.6 .23 17% .25 79% .19
Nov
26		 Belmont D+ B B- D C 33% 15% 53% B- C+ F A+ D+ B- D- F+ F+ C- D+ F F F 36% 4% 60% D+ F F F F A+ A+ B- A+
1.01 61% 38% 31% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.7 .29 17% .22 69% .15 1.22 67% 50% 50% +18 +2 1.42 40% 1.6 .64 28% .06 67% .04
Dec
6		 Oakland B+ C- A+ F B 46% 25% 29% C B A C B+ C D+ A- C- D- D+ F B+ C- 67% 6% 27% F D- A+ F D- F B+ B+ A-
1.24 59% 88% 22% +8 0 1.17 45% 0.9 .42 15% .21 79% .17 1.26 60% 50% 29% +1 +4 1.11 21% 2.0 .41 6% .27 70% .19
Dec
13		 Robert Morris D F F B- F 43% 35% 22% F F D- D+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ C+ A- C 42% 23% 35% C- C C A+ A+ F F B- F
1.02 45% 22% 36% -10 -2 0.78 24% 0.9 .21 10% .49 87% .42 1.09 65% 36% 29% 0 0 1.02 36% 0.7 .26 13% .47 64% .30
Dec
16		 Michigan St. B- F A B C+ 27% 31% 42% D C D B C- A+ C B+ C+ D C A+ F D 48% 15% 37% F D- F B+ D+ A- C+ C+ B-
0.96 25% 44% 36% -6 -2 0.86 14% 0.8 .12 6% .25 76% .19 1.29 62% 25% 50% +9 +1 1.22 50% 0.9 .47 21% .34 74% .25
Dec
30		 Western Michigan C- A+ A+ F F+ 37% 22% 41% D F+ A+ D- B+ C- A+ D A+ D+ A- C- D C 36% 27% 38% B- C F A+ C- A- B- C+ B-
1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39 1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18
Jan
3		 Central Michigan C F+ B- B- D+ 37% 41% 22% F D- C F F A+ A+ A+ A+ C C B+ F D 38% 27% 35% C D A+ F B F A- F+ B
1.12 50% 40% 36% -1 -3 0.94 35% 0.8 .27 10% .51 81% .41 1.07 57% 33% 42% +3 -1 1.05 13% 2.0 .25 13% .20 75% .15
Jan
6		 Northern Illinois C- D- A+ A+ B- 58% 19% 23% B- B- F+ F F C- C F D A C+ A+ C C- 38% 2% 60% F+ D+ D B- C A+ A+ B- A+
1.05 53% 60% 42% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 18% .33 63% .21 0.86 53% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.00 34% 0.8 .26 30% .22 64% .14
Jan
9		 Miami (OH) D+ F D+ A+ C 28% 41% 31% F D+ C F D- B- B+ A+ A D- F+ F F+ F 39% 13% 48% D+ F D C+ D+ C- A+ F A+
1.05 47% 36% 47% +2 -3 1.00 30% 0.6 .18 16% .34 85% .29 1.25 73% 57% 41% +13 +1 1.30 28% 1.1 .31 14% .13 88% .12
Jan
13		 Ohio A+ B A+ A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- D A+ B- F C+ F D- F 31% 33% 37% A D- F F F C C A- B-
1.44 62% 75% 44% +17 -1 1.34 46% 1.4 .63 13% .28 94% .26 1.21 56% 59% 37% +8 -2 1.13 36% 1.2 .44 16% .32 63% .20
Jan
16		 Kent St. B+ D F+ A+ C 53% 13% 35% A- C+ C- A+ A- C+ A+ D+ A+ D- F+ D+ C F+ 45% 11% 45% F+ F+ F+ B+ C- F F C+ F
1.17 52% 29% 42% 0 +2 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 15% .48 69% .33 1.21 67% 40% 33% +4 +2 1.13 41% 0.9 .38 13% .57 72% .41
Jan
20		 Massachusetts B B- A A+ A 36% 34% 30% F A- C- C- C- F B+ A A D D B F F 45% 12% 43% F F F A D C+ D- C- D-
1.16 65% 50% 43% +10 -2 1.19 26% 1.0 .26 21% .45 80% .36 1.19 64% 33% 43% +8 +2 1.20 43% 1.0 .43 20% .39 68% .26
Jan
24		 Bowling Green C F C C+ D- 39% 22% 39% D+ D- C A B A+ F A+ D- C- C- F F F 67% 8% 25% F F F A+ A+ A+ A A- A
1.08 39% 38% 35% -7 0 0.88 28% 1.3 .36 12% .20 92% .18 1.06 59% 75% 46% +8 +4 1.25 36% 0.2 .07 24% .23 67% .15
Jan
27		 Akron B+ C+ F A+ A 52% 10% 38% A A+ D- B+ C- D- D B D+ D- C C D C 52% 9% 39% F C- F B F B- C+ C- C+
1.16 59% 0% 55% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.1 .30 21% .24 77% .18 1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +2 1.15 49% 1.2 .57 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
31		 Ball St. D+ B+ B C- C+ 33% 24% 43% D+ C F C- F C- D+ A- C A A C- A+ A- 43% 18% 39% D+ B+ D A+ A A- F C F
1.08 69% 42% 33% +4 -1 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 19% .26 86% .22 0.81 42% 38% 24% -13 +1 0.77 28% 0.4 .10 21% .50 70% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Kent St. D+ D+ A+ D C+ 49% 21% 30% C+ C+ C+ F D- C+ F+ A D C- A+ B+ C A- 31% 24% 44% A- A- F C D- C- C+ B- B-
1.06 54% 55% 31% 0 +1 1.04 32% 0.7 .22 15% .26 80% .21 1.10 41% 31% 33% -7 -1 0.85 42% 1.1 .44 18% .37 71% .27
Feb
7		 James Madison C- B- A+ D B 38% 31% 31% F+ B- F A+ D B F D- F C F C+ B- D+ 38% 13% 49% D+ D+ F A C B D+ F F
1.07 60% 50% 31% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.3 .24 11% .25 67% .17 1.10 71% 33% 32% +3 +1 1.09 36% 0.8 .30 20% .32 88% .28
Feb
11		 Western Michigan A C+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 15% 36% B- A+ F A+ F A+ A+ F A- D+ A+ D+ B- B 28% 31% 41% A B+ C- F F F C F D
1.31 62% 75% 47% +15 +1 1.34 14% 1.5 .21 7% .44 61% .27 1.15 40% 41% 32% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.6 .50 12% .28 82% .23
Feb
14		 Bowling Green C+ F A+ B+ C- 27% 33% 40% F D B+ C+ B A F B+ F+ F A- A F D 50% 14% 36% C- D C+ F F F C- B+ C+
1.07 14% 59% 38% -2 -2 0.92 34% 1.1 .37 14% .23 77% .18 1.22 48% 29% 50% +2 +2 1.10 26% 1.4 .37 11% .32 68% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 3.1 27.7 25.2 3.9 59.9 4th
5th 0.4 12.6 10.7 0.3 24.0 5th
6th 0.0 3.2 8.1 0.6 12.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.8 0.2 3.2 7th
8th 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.6 6.5 24.0 39.1 25.7 4.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 4.2% 8.4% 8.4% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.8
11-7 25.7% 5.9% 5.9% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 24.2
10-8 39.1% 4.5% 4.5% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.1 37.3
9-9 24.0% 2.6% 2.6% 15.6 0.3 0.4 23.4
8-10 6.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 6.4
7-11 0.6% 0.6
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 14.5 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.8 31.4 58.1 10.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 0.6%