Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.2 90
Expected Predictive Rating +4.3 100
Pace 59.3 364
Improvement +0.1 182

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 187 B- D- B D- B
Defense B+ 30 B+ A- C+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 53 B- 62% 91 +4.5 33
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 264 B+ 44% 41 -0.8 222
Three Pointers 40% 203 C- 33% 232 -1.1 222
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.9 66 C+ +1.7 111
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 95
Second Chance F 20.8% 357 B- 1.11 66 D- 0.23 337
Turnovers B 14.3% 36
Freethrows D- 0.25 342 D+ 70% 276 D- 0.17 346
Total Offense C -0.9 187

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 177 C+ 10.0% 127
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 41 C+ 4.1% 113
Three Pointers B- 88% 107 B 0.4% 70
Total C+ 58% 134 C+ 5.2% 134

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 201 B- 54% 80 -1.8 115
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 200 C+ 37% 138 -0.4 156
Three Pointers 42% 134 A 29% 7 -2.8 67
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 179 B+ -5.0 30
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.92 38
Second Chance A- 24.8% 20 A- 0.88 17 A- 0.22 12
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 131
Freethrows B 0.26 54 C 72% 167 B 0.19 59
Total Defense B+ +7.0 30

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 113 C- 9.8% 217
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 19% 61 C- 4.1% 225
Three Pointers B 79% 59 B 1.7% 49
Total B- 51% 77 C- 5.3% 201

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.9 331 18.5 333
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 346 0.12 35
Improvement +2.3 #85 -2.2 #296

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 103 89 73
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 13 - 7
Conference Finish 6 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18% 19% 15%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round18% 19% 15%
Second Round2% 2% 2%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 53 - 8
Quad 37 - 410 - 12
Quad 410 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 159 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 57 81% +17  92% 1 - 0 A+ +26 B +7 A D+ B A+ +18 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 206 South Dakota St. W 65 - 58 87% +4  78% 2 - 0 C +1 D- -7 B F D+ A +9 B- C A+
 Fri, Nov 14 181 Furman W 70 - 54 84% +10  90% 3 - 0 B+ +12 C -0 B F A- A+ +13 A+ A C+
 Tue, Nov 18 319 Northern Illinois W 70 - 57 95% +3  66% 4 - 0 C -0 C -0 A F+ F C+ +2 D+ A- B
 Sat, Nov 22 116 @UC Irvine W 70 - 69 OT 51% +3  65% 5 - 0 B- +7 C +1 C+ F A+ B+ +6 A- D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 277 Loyola Chicago W 72 - 51 88% +18  98% 6 - 0 B+ +14 C+ +3 C+ F+ A+ A+ +14 A+ C C-
 Wed, Nov 26 77 Tulsa L 60 - 63 45% -3  14% 6 - 1 C+ +5 F+ -9 F+ D+ B- A+ +13 B+ A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 97 Wichita St. L 69 - 74 OT 65% -2  34% 6 - 2 C- -3 D -5 C+ F A+ B- +2 D B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 170 Oakland W 75 - 63 82% +5  77% 7 - 2 B +8 F+ -9 C- F A A+ +17 B+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 106 @Illinois-Chicago W 60 - 54 46% +2  58% 8 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +13 C- -1 A F F+ A+ +15 A+ B+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 41 @St. Mary's L 58 - 63 18% +2  77% 8 - 3 B +11 C- -1 B D B A+ +11 A+ D- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 161 Valparaiso W 58 - 48 81% +3  79% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B- +7 D -5 C D+ C A+ +14 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 1 211 Indiana St. W 75 - 66 87% +1  57% 10 - 3 3 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 B B B- C+ +1 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 298 @Evansville W 62 - 48 85% +12  91% 11 - 3 4 - 0 B +9 F+ -8 B F F A+ +19 A- A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 68 Belmont L 65 - 78 54% -8  4% 11 - 4 4 - 1 D+ -8 C+ +2 C D- A+ F -13 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 120 @Bradley L 69 - 75 51% -2  15% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C -0 C- -0 D+ D- A+ C -0 C B F
 Tue, Jan 13 106 Illinois-Chicago L 61 - 69 69% -0  44% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D+ -7 D -5 F B- B+ D+ -3 D- A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 161 @Valparaiso L 44 - 54 63% -2  29% 11 - 7 4 - 4 D+ -7 F -21 F F+ A- A+ +12 A+ B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 99 @Illinois St. L 54 - 59 42% -5  5% 11 - 8 4 - 5 C+ +3 F -11 F C- B+ A+ +14 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 124 Murray St. W 81 - 76 73% +4  68% 12 - 8 5 - 5 C+ +5 B +7 A+ F+ A C- -2 A D- D
 Wed, Jan 28 128 @Southern Illinois L 50 - 65 54% -6  16% 12 - 9 5 - 6 D -10 F -15 D+ F F B +4 D- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 298 Evansville W 71 - 55 93% +16  92% 13 - 9 6 - 6 B- +5 B +6 B A D+ B- +2 B C+ F
 Fri, Feb 6 120 Bradley W 61 - 49 73% +7  86% 14 - 9 7 - 6 B+ +12 D+ -4 D B- A- A+ +18 A- A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 124 @Murray St. W 89 - 60 52% +13  96% 15 - 9 8 - 6 A+ +35 A+ +20 A+ B- A+ A+ +17 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Feb 12 68 @Belmont L 86 - 91 31% -2  17% 15 - 10 8 - 7 B- +6 A +12 A D A- D -6 F A D-
 Sun, Feb 15 194 Drake W 86 - 62 85% +11  82% 16 - 10 9 - 7 A +19 A +12 A+ C- A- A- +8 B- A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 211 @Indiana St. W 81 - 60 72% +3  62% 17 - 10 10 - 7 A +21 A +12 A+ F A A +11 B+ B- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 128 Southern Illinois W 66 - 59 74%
 Wed, Feb 25 99 Illinois St. W 65 - 61 65%
 Sun, Mar 1 194 @Drake W 69 - 64 69%
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 8 +6 C -1 C+ C+ B B+ +7 C- D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- B+ C- C+ 43% 30% 40% B B- F B- D- B D- D+ D- B+ B- C+ A B+ 38% 20% 42% C B+ A- A- A- C+ B C B
1.07 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 21% 1.1 .23 14% .25 70% .17 0.99 54% 37% 29% -5 0 0.92 25% 0.9 .22 18% .26 72% .18
Nov
6		 Cal St. Northridge B A- F B+ A- 42% 8% 49% A A F A+ D+ B F B+ F A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ 36% 21% 43% A- A+ B A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.20 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.5 .27 14% .16 80% .13 0.79 29% 40% 30% -12 0 0.77 29% 0.5 .13 28% .44 74% .33
Nov
9		 South Dakota St. D- B F C+ C+ 57% 5% 39% A+ B F F F D+ A F C- A F C+ A+ B- 39% 20% 41% C B- F A+ C A+ D+ A- C
1.02 64% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.14 16% 0.8 .13 17% .38 55% .21 0.91 69% 38% 24% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.8 .30 27% .30 64% .19
Nov
14		 Furman C B A+ D- B 45% 19% 36% B B F+ F F A- B+ A+ A A+ F D- A+ A+ 39% 4% 57% F+ A+ A A A C+ A- A+ A
1.09 62% 56% 29% +3 +1 1.09 22% 0.7 .16 11% .30 82% .24 0.84 74% 50% 14% -10 +2 0.86 22% 0.8 .17 20% .22 55% .12
Nov
18		 Northern Illinois C A A+ C+ A 48% 10% 43% B A C- F F+ F A+ D- A+ C+ A+ F F C 54% 5% 41% F D+ B+ A A- B C D+ C-
1.13 74% 50% 35% +9 +2 1.25 31% 0.8 .23 24% .51 67% .34 0.92 41% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 27% 0.6 .17 24% .34 69% .23
Nov
22		 UC Irvine C F+ A- C C+ 35% 21% 44% C+ C+ F+ F F A+ F C- F B+ B A+ C A- 44% 38% 18% B+ A- B+ F D+ F F A- D-
0.98 41% 46% 33% -5 0 0.92 24% 0.5 .12 11% .16 70% .11 0.96 50% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.82 25% 1.4 .35 13% .42 62% .26
Nov
25		 Loyola Chicago C+ C+ C+ B B- 27% 23% 50% D+ C+ F A+ F+ A+ D+ F F+ A+ A+ A C+ A+ 34% 16% 50% B A+ C C C C- C+ A B
1.17 57% 42% 38% +4 -1 1.08 12% 1.8 .21 5% .26 67% .17 0.83 20% 29% 32% -16 0 0.70 32% 0.9 .29 18% .30 60% .18
Nov
26		 Tulsa F+ B- F F F+ 41% 20% 39% C+ F+ D- A- D+ B- F D+ F A+ C- B+ B B+ 33% 13% 54% A- B+ A+ C+ A+ C+ B+ F C
0.95 62% 20% 25% -7 0 0.88 19% 1.3 .25 14% .19 70% .13 1.00 60% 33% 32% -2 +1 1.00 13% 1.3 .17 16% .28 93% .26
Dec
6		 Wichita St. D C- A+ F C- 58% 17% 25% A+ C+ D- F F A+ A- F C B- D- A F+ D- 35% 22% 43% B- D A- C B+ A C+ F D+
0.98 55% 56% 23% -3 +2 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 11% .35 55% .19 1.05 65% 27% 38% +3 0 1.06 32% 1.0 .32 20% .30 76% .23
Dec
13		 Oakland F+ C D D+ D 48% 15% 37% A- C- F F F A A+ F A A+ B+ B A+ A+ 62% 6% 33% F B+ A B A A+ C- A+ B
1.03 60% 38% 32% 0 +1 1.04 22% 0.8 .16 11% .42 59% .25 0.86 50% 33% 24% -10 +4 0.88 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 63% .21
Dec
17		 Illinois-Chicago C- C A A+ A+ 21% 26% 52% F A D- F F F+ D- A D A+ B A+ A+ A+ 48% 16% 36% F+ A+ A- C+ B+ D- A+ A+ A+
0.98 56% 45% 41% +7 -2 1.12 29% 0.8 .21 24% .24 82% .19 0.88 50% 13% 17% -17 +1 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 15% .21 64% .13
Dec
22		 St. Mary's C- D+ A C- B- 42% 21% 37% B- B F A+ D B F B- F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 21% 40% C+ A+ D D D- B- F F F
0.94 50% 45% 32% -3 0 0.96 10% 1.7 .17 13% .07 75% .06 1.02 41% 11% 18% -22 0 0.58 41% 1.2 .49 18% .53 93% .49
Dec
29		 Valparaiso D C- D- C C- 53% 18% 30% B+ C F A+ D+ C A- A- A A+ A- D+ A+ A+ 40% 21% 38% F A+ D A+ A+ D+ A- F B-
1.01 57% 29% 33% -2 +1 1.00 15% 1.5 .23 17% .38 78% .29 0.83 47% 40% 17% -14 0 0.74 35% 0.3 .09 14% .28 79% .22
Jan
1		 Indiana St. C+ C+ A+ F C+ 65% 12% 22% A+ B C A B B- C+ D C C+ F F A+ F+ 49% 6% 45% D F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+
1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18 1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04
Jan
4		 Evansville F+ F B A+ B 30% 21% 49% C B F F F F D F F+ A+ F C+ A+ A 42% 26% 33% D- A- A+ B- A+ A- C+ B- C+
0.97 46% 44% 48% +8 -1 1.16 21% 0.8 .17 25% .23 64% .15 0.75 72% 36% 7% -8 0 0.86 7% 1.0 .07 24% .27 69% .18
Jan
7		 Belmont C+ A F D C- 29% 8% 63% B+ C F B D- A+ F D- F F F+ F F F 49% 9% 42% D F A- D- B F B- A+ A-
1.11 67% 0% 31% -3 +1 0.98 22% 1.1 .24 5% .18 70% .13 1.33 73% 50% 47% +17 +2 1.40 22% 1.4 .30 10% .29 53% .15
Jan
10		 Bradley C- D+ C C C- 24% 33% 43% D- D+ F A+ D- A+ D F F+ C F F+ B+ C- 26% 28% 46% A- C B B- B F F A+ D-
1.03 54% 39% 35% 0 -3 0.96 16% 1.3 .21 7% .29 61% .18 1.12 69% 43% 30% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 7% .45 64% .29
Jan
13		 Illinois-Chicago D C+ C- F F 39% 14% 48% B- F C- A B- B+ C+ A+ B+ D+ F F+ A+ F+ 45% 27% 29% C+ D- A+ F A- F C A+ A-
0.97 59% 33% 14% -14 +1 0.75 33% 1.2 .39 18% .31 88% .27 1.10 73% 46% 21% +3 0 1.08 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 56% .18
Jan
17		 Valparaiso F B+ F F F 38% 29% 33% D F F+ F F+ A- F F F A+ A A- A+ A+ 21% 42% 37% A+ A+ A+ F B D- D D- D-
0.75 67% 7% 19% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.7 .17 14% .14 29% .04 0.92 44% 28% 25% -12 -4 0.70 23% 1.3 .29 12% .39 75% .29
Jan
21		 Illinois St. F F C F F 33% 33% 35% D+ F F+ A+ C- B+ D A C- A+ A C A A+ 20% 20% 61% B+ A+ D B+ C A+ F F F
0.84 41% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 14% .25 79% .20 0.91 50% 38% 28% -7 -1 0.85 31% 1.0 .31 26% .38 89% .34
Jan
24		 Murray St. B A+ B+ A+ A+ 55% 22% 22% B A+ F C- F+ A A- F C- C- D A+ A- A 33% 25% 41% A- A D D+ D- D C- F D-
1.22 70% 45% 45% +12 +1 1.29 22% 1.0 .22 12% .36 57% .21 1.15 65% 23% 29% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .44 14% .35 85% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Southern Illinois F D D F D- 51% 13% 36% A D+ F F F F C- F D B B F F F 31% 39% 31% A+ D- A- A+ A+ C- D A+ B+
0.76 52% 33% 25% -8 +2 0.89 10% 0.7 .06 26% .27 62% .16 0.99 53% 53% 40% +7 -3 1.10 24% 0.4 .09 15% .34 47% .16
Jan
31		 Evansville B A+ A D- B 31% 16% 53% B- B D A+ A D+ F B- F B- C- F A+ B- 17% 30% 52% A- B B D- C+ F A+ F A+
1.22 87% 50% 31% +8 0 1.18 28% 1.7 .48 19% .08 75% .06 0.95 63% 50% 25% -3 -3 0.91 19% 1.2 .23 14% .14 86% .12
Feb
6		 Bradley D+ D+ B+ F F+ 50% 20% 30% A D C- A B- A- D+ C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ 33% 13% 54% D- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ B- F D
1.02 55% 44% 23% -5 +1 0.93 29% 1.2 .35 15% .30 73% .22 0.82 31% 20% 38% -8 +1 0.87 14% 0.8 .11 27% .30 92% .27
Feb
9		 Murray St. A+ A A+ A A+ 48% 22% 29% B- A+ C+ B- B- A+ F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 41% 17% 43% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ B+ A+
1.36 68% 69% 41% +15 0 1.33 35% 1.1 .38 9% .03 100% .03 0.92 45% 67% 22% -8 +1 0.87 22% 0.9 .19 14% .18 70% .12
Feb
12		 Belmont A B A+ B- A- 41% 16% 43% B+ A F A+ D A- A+ A+ A+ D C- F F F 38% 8% 55% C F A+ F A D- C+ F D
1.21 62% 50% 36% +5 +1 1.14 18% 1.4 .25 14% .39 96% .38 1.28 65% 100% 45% +16 +2 1.38 13% 2.0 .25 15% .30 83% .25
Feb
15		 Drake A A A+ A- A+ 33% 15% 52% B A+ F A+ C- A- F A+ C A- A- F B- A- 48% 6% 46% F B- A A+ A+ C+ C B+ B-
1.31 71% 63% 41% +13 0 1.29 19% 1.4 .26 11% .22 92% .20 0.94 48% 67% 32% -5 +3 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 15% .31 65% .20
Feb
18		 Indiana St. A C A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B+ A+ F A+ F A F F F A A- F B B+ 49% 9% 43% C- B+ F A+ B- A+ C- A+ B
1.25 57% 86% 46% +14 +1 1.32 11% 1.7 .18 11% .10 33% .03 0.92 52% 50% 30% -4 +2 0.98 36% 0.6 .22 26% .27 54% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.8 18.8 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 14.1 15.1 29.2 3rd
4th 0.9 25.2 26.1 4th
5th 9.0 2.9 11.9 5th
6th 1.6 9.0 10.6 6th
7th 1.7 0.9 2.6 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 3.3 19.8 43.1 33.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 33.8% 22.0% 22.0% 11.8 1.7 5.5 0.2 26.4
12-8 43.1% 17.4% 17.4% 12.1 0.4 5.8 1.3 0.0 35.6
11-9 19.8% 15.0% 15.0% 12.3 0.1 2.0 0.9 0.0 16.9
10-10 3.3% 9.6% 9.6% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 12.0 81.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.5% 100.0% 11.8 22.7 74.3 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.9%
Lose Out 0.7%