Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#93
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#89
Pace60.6#359
Improvement-1.0#252

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#212
First Shot+2.0#116
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#350
Layup/Dunks+3.0#74
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
Freethrows-2.0#302
Improvement-1.6#293

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#21
First Shot+5.9#33
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#55
Layups/Dunks+1.1#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#244
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#55
Freethrows+1.9#66
Improvement+0.5#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 17.9% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.2
.500 or above 97.7% 98.3% 92.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.1% 93.8% 79.5%
Conference Champion 21.4% 23.1% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round16.9% 17.7% 11.2%
Second Round3.1% 3.3% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 88.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 39 - 412 - 10
Quad 410 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 212 Cal St. Northridge W 86-57 87%     1 - 0 +22.7 +6.8 +15.1
  Sun, Nov 9 172 South Dakota St. W 65-58 82%     2 - 0 +3.2 -3.5 +7.4
  Fri, Nov 14 148 Furman W 70-54 78%     3 - 0 +13.9 +2.1 +13.2
  Tue, Nov 18 328 Northern Illinois W 70-57 95%     4 - 0 +0.1 -1.0 +2.8
  Sat, Nov 22 131 @UC Irvine W 70-69 OT 55%     5 - 0 +5.8 +2.3 +3.5
  Tue, Nov 25 270 Loyola Chicago W 72-51 87%     6 - 0 +15.1 +3.7 +14.2
  Wed, Nov 26 92 Tulsa L 60-63 50%     6 - 1 +3.1 -6.2 +8.9
  Sat, Dec 6 98 Wichita St. L 69-74 OT 63%     6 - 2 -2.5 -3.2 +0.8
  Sat, Dec 13 137 Oakland W 75-63 76%     7 - 2 +10.7 -5.3 +15.5
  Wed, Dec 17 200 @Illinois-Chicago W 60-54 70%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +6.6 -4.3 +11.7
  Mon, Dec 22 44 @St. Mary's L 58-63 20%     8 - 3 +9.7 +1.7 +7.4
  Mon, Dec 29 219 Valparaiso W 69-56 88%    
  Thu, Jan 1 201 Indiana St. W 71-60 86%    
  Sun, Jan 4 252 @Evansville W 66-58 78%    
  Wed, Jan 7 69 Belmont W 69-68 54%    
  Sat, Jan 10 108 @Bradley L 62-63 46%    
  Tue, Jan 13 200 Illinois-Chicago W 70-59 86%    
  Sat, Jan 17 219 @Valparaiso W 66-59 73%    
  Wed, Jan 21 82 @Illinois St. L 62-66 36%    
  Sat, Jan 24 100 Murray St. W 73-69 63%    
  Wed, Jan 28 130 @Southern Illinois W 66-65 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 252 Evansville W 69-55 90%    
  Fri, Feb 6 108 Bradley W 65-60 68%    
  Mon, Feb 9 100 @Murray St. L 70-72 41%    
  Thu, Feb 12 69 @Belmont L 66-71 33%    
  Sun, Feb 15 143 Drake W 67-59 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 201 @Indiana St. W 68-63 69%    
  Sat, Feb 21 130 Southern Illinois W 69-62 73%    
  Wed, Feb 25 82 Illinois St. W 65-63 58%    
  Sun, Mar 1 143 @Drake W 64-62 57%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 6.4 5.4 3.0 0.9 0.2 21.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.4 7.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.8 6.0 2.0 0.2 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.0 4.8 1.2 0.1 15.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.5 3.3 0.7 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 1.8 0.3 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.2 4.0 6.8 9.7 12.7 14.6 14.8 13.4 10.0 6.1 3.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 98.6% 3.0    2.8 0.2
17-3 88.6% 5.4    4.2 1.2 0.0
16-4 64.2% 6.4    3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.0% 4.1    1.3 1.9 0.8 0.1
14-6 8.6% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.4% 21.4 13.2 6.2 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 64.6% 54.2% 10.4% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 22.7%
19-1 0.9% 54.4% 43.8% 10.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 19.0%
18-2 3.0% 39.0% 36.8% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 3.5%
17-3 6.1% 33.7% 32.8% 0.9% 11.4 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.0 4.1 1.3%
16-4 10.0% 27.7% 27.6% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 1.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.2 0.1%
15-5 13.4% 22.8% 22.8% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.3 0.1%
14-6 14.8% 19.0% 19.0% 12.0 0.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 12.0
13-7 14.6% 14.1% 14.1% 12.2 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 12.5
12-8 12.7% 9.6% 9.6% 12.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 11.4
11-9 9.7% 7.7% 7.7% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.0
10-10 6.8% 5.5% 5.5% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.4
9-11 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.9
8-12 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
7-13 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.1% 16.8% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.6 9.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 82.9 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.9 3.8 15.4 23.1 26.9 15.4 7.7 7.7