Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#127
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#267
Pace70.9#127
Improvement+2.6#32

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#131
First Shot+2.6#100
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#254
Layup/Dunks+0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#66
Freethrows+0.0#189
Improvement+0.9#107

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#140
First Shot-1.8#236
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#37
Layups/Dunks-0.4#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#326
Freethrows+2.5#44
Improvement+1.7#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.5% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 14.2
.500 or above 35.8% 39.9% 16.5%
.500 or above in Conference 57.9% 60.4% 45.9%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.6% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 5.3% 9.7%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round5.9% 6.4% 3.3%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 82.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 34 - 67 - 12
Quad 46 - 313 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 230   Nicholls St. L 58-62 80%     0 - 1 -10.4 -14.3 +3.7
  Nov 11, 2021 103   Vermont L 57-71 54%     0 - 2 -12.5 -13.8 +1.6
  Nov 17, 2021 25   @ Arkansas L 80-93 10%     0 - 3 +3.4 +8.8 -4.4
  Nov 27, 2021 45   @ St. Bonaventure W 90-80 17%     1 - 3 +22.8 +20.3 +2.1
  Dec 01, 2021 181   @ Bradley L 69-71 51%     1 - 4 0 - 1 +0.2 +0.5 -0.3
  Dec 05, 2021 62   Richmond L 52-60 42%     1 - 5 -3.5 -17.4 +13.5
  Dec 14, 2021 244   Jackson St. W 71-61 82%    
  Dec 18, 2021 126   @ Marshall L 79-82 38%    
  Dec 22, 2021 134   Liberty W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 02, 2022 237   Evansville W 69-59 81%    
  Jan 05, 2022 182   Valparaiso W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 08, 2022 101   @ Missouri St. L 72-77 31%    
  Jan 11, 2022 175   Indiana St. W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 146   @ Southern Illinois L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 19, 2022 182   @ Valparaiso W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 22, 2022 72   Drake L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 26, 2022 237   @ Evansville W 66-62 62%    
  Jan 29, 2022 242   Illinois St. W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 02, 2022 181   Bradley W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 05, 2022 72   @ Drake L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 09, 2022 146   Southern Illinois W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 13, 2022 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-73 13%    
  Feb 15, 2022 242   @ Illinois St. W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 20, 2022 101   Missouri St. W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 23, 2022 175   @ Indiana St. L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 26, 2022 33   Loyola Chicago L 64-70 29%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.2 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.3 7.0 3.4 0.6 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.2 7.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.1 2.4 0.2 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.1 2.0 0.2 10.3 7th
8th 0.3 2.0 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 1.3 0.1 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.1 8.2 10.8 13.1 14.4 13.7 11.6 8.5 5.5 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 72.6% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 38.8% 1.0    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.9% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 80.8% 34.6% 46.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.6%
16-2 0.3% 52.5% 39.2% 13.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 21.9%
15-3 1.2% 33.0% 30.0% 3.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 4.4%
14-4 2.6% 21.2% 20.2% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 1.2%
13-5 5.5% 17.4% 17.2% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.5 0.2%
12-6 8.5% 11.8% 11.8% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.5
11-7 11.6% 8.5% 8.5% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.6
10-8 13.7% 5.8% 5.8% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 12.9
9-9 14.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 13.9
8-10 13.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 12.8
7-11 10.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.7
6-12 8.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.1
5-13 5.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.1
4-14 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.0% 5.9% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 94.0 0.1%