Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 194
Expected Predictive Rating -3.1 218
Pace 67.7 204
Improvement -2.2 276

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 152 C C- B C C-
Defense C- 247 C- B- D C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 325 C 58% 165 -3.2 290
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 206 B 43% 49 +1.4 99
Three Pointers 46% 76 C 34% 205 +2.2 103
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 252 C+ +0.9 134
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 164
Second Chance D 25.8% 310 B- 1.11 73 C- 0.29 239
Turnovers B 14.4% 38
Freethrows C 0.31 182 C- 70% 244 C 0.22 194
Total Offense C +0.4 152

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 254 C 11.0% 178
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 278 B- 3.8% 92
Three Pointers C+ 87% 138 C+ 0.8% 169
Total C- 54% 221 B- 4.8% 90

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 336 D+ 61% 270 -3.1 81
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 118 B+ 33% 17 -0.6 144
Three Pointers 46% 38 D- 38% 333 +5.4 351
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 65 D+ +2.4 274
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 235
Second Chance C 30.2% 166 B 0.92 39 B- 0.28 78
Turnovers D 14.7% 310
Freethrows C 0.30 173 B 70% 57 C+ 0.21 135
Total Defense C- -2.4 247

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 50% 198 C- 10.2% 198
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 95 C 4.8% 178
Three Pointers B- 80% 82 D 0.2% 323
Total C- 57% 212 D+ 4.4% 281

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 204 17.1 155
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 254 0.18 195
Improvement +1.0 #134 -3.2 #324

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 220 197 174
Conference Record 6 - 14 7 - 13 8 - 12
Conference Finish 9 9 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Away) - 32.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 71 - 9
Quad 35 - 96 - 17
Quad 45 - 211 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 311 Northern Arizona W 77 - 71 75% +0  51% 1 - 0 C- -3 D -4 C F B C+ +2 C+ A- F
 Thu, Nov 6 177 Robert Morris L 79 - 81 OT 58% -2  20% 1 - 1 D+ -6 D -4 F D+ A C- -2 D- B A
 Fri, Nov 14 248 SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 61 71% -5  22% 1 - 2 D -10 D- -7 F+ B+ B C- -3 D A D-
 Mon, Nov 17 151 @College of Charleston W 71 - 62 31% +5  69% 2 - 2 B+ +12 C -0 B- D F A+ +12 A- A C-
 Fri, Nov 28 54 LSU L 62 - 71 13% -9  1% 2 - 3 C +1 F+ -9 D- F A+ A +10 B- A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 141 Georgia Tech W 84 - 74 38% +5  86% 3 - 3 B +11 A+ +17 B+ A+ A+ D -5 C- B F
 Tue, Dec 2 362 Western Illinois W 108 - 57 95% +26  98% 4 - 3 A+ +30 A+ +34 A+ A+ B- C+ +1 C A- F
 Fri, Dec 5 123 UAB L 69 - 74 43% -2  7% 4 - 4 D+ -5 D+ -4 F+ C- A C- -2 C+ D A-
 Sat, Dec 13 132 North Dakota St. L 94 - 99 47% -9  3% 4 - 5 D+ -6 A +14 A+ F C+ F -20 F D+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 124 @Murray St. L 72 - 81 23% -5  17% 4 - 6 0 - 1 C- -3 C -0 D C+ C D+ -4 A D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 298 @Evansville W 66 - 65 61% +2  61% 5 - 6 1 - 1 C- -4 D -6 C- D D+ C+ +2 A F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 99 Illinois St. L 56 - 73 34% -8  13% 5 - 7 1 - 2 F+ -15 F -14 F D+ B+ C- -2 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 211 Indiana St. W 74 - 72 65% -0  41% 6 - 7 2 - 2 C- -4 B- +4 A C C+ D- -7 C+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 120 @Bradley L 66 - 93 23% -20  3% 6 - 8 2 - 3 F -21 F -10 D+ F C F+ -9 F+ C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 68 Belmont L 76 - 78 24% +11  91% 6 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +3 D+ -3 A+ F F B+ +6 A+ D C+
 Wed, Jan 14 128 @Southern Illinois W 76 - 73 OT 24% -4  21% 7 - 9 3 - 4 B +8 C- -1 F+ B+ B- A +9 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 106 @Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 74 19% -7  0% 7 - 10 3 - 5 C +0 C +1 C F A+ C -1 B+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 124 Murray St. W 101 - 90 43% +5  80% 8 - 10 4 - 5 B +11 B+ +8 C A+ A+ C+ +1 C+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 211 @Indiana St. W 76 - 62 42% +5  95% 9 - 10 5 - 5 B+ +14 D+ -3 C- F B+ A+ +16 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 298 Evansville W 82 - 78 80% -6  6% 10 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -7 B +7 C D- A+ F -13 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 120 Bradley L 73 - 87 43% -8  12% 10 - 11 6 - 6 D- -14 C+ +3 D C+ A+ F -18 F F+ C-
 Tue, Feb 3 68 @Belmont L 90 - 103 11% -8  6% 10 - 12 6 - 7 C- -2 A+ +18 A+ A+ C+ F -19 F D- F
 Fri, Feb 6 99 @Illinois St. L 76 - 86 17% -12  0% 10 - 13 6 - 8 C- -2 B- +4 C C B+ D -6 D C D
 Mon, Feb 9 161 Valparaiso L 76 - 81 54% +0  50% 10 - 14 6 - 9 D -8 B- +4 D- A A+ F -12 F F B-
 Thu, Feb 12 106 Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 80 38% -4  11% 10 - 15 6 - 10 D -9 C+ +2 B- C- B F -11 D+ A F
 Sun, Feb 15 90 @Northern Iowa L 62 - 86 15% -11  12% 10 - 16 6 - 11 F+ -15 C- -1 B- D B F -16 F D+ F+
 Wed, Feb 18 128 Southern Illinois L 61 - 66 45% +1  53% 10 - 17 6 - 12 D+ -6 F -10 D D+ C- B +5 B+ A C+
 Wed, Feb 25 161 @Valparaiso L 69 - 74 32%
 Sun, Mar 1 90 Northern Iowa L 64 - 69 31%
Totals 11 - 18 7 - 13 -2 C +0 F C+ C- C- -2 C C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C B C C+ 33% 35% 46% C- C D B- C- B C C- C C- D+ B+ D- D+ 31% 22% 46% B C- C B B- D C B C+
1.09 58% 43% 34% +1 0 1.03 26% 1.1 .29 14% .31 70% .22 1.12 61% 33% 38% +2 -1 1.05 30% 0.9 .28 15% .30 70% .21
Nov
3		 Northern Arizona D C- A+ C C 46% 15% 38% C+ C C F F B A- C- A- C+ A+ A+ F B 49% 20% 31% F+ C+ F A+ A- F A A A
1.11 58% 63% 35% +4 +1 1.13 33% 0.3 .11 14% .37 73% .27 1.03 43% 17% 53% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.5 .14 9% .19 58% .11
Nov
6		 Robert Morris D D F F+ F 42% 20% 38% C- F C F+ D+ A A+ B- A+ C- F+ C- D F+ 36% 22% 41% C D- D A+ B A A+ F B-
1.06 52% 18% 29% -10 0 0.84 30% 0.8 .24 11% .48 78% .38 1.09 67% 38% 38% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.9 .33 23% .14 100% .14
Nov
14		 SIU Edwardsville D- F F+ F+ F 29% 20% 51% C F+ D A+ B+ B F F F C- F D A- F+ 18% 31% 51% B+ D D A+ A D- A A+ A+
0.97 43% 30% 28% -11 -1 0.80 28% 1.5 .41 13% .15 50% .08 1.00 89% 40% 28% +2 -3 1.00 32% 0.6 .18 15% .17 56% .10
Nov
17		 College of Charleston C B- F B B- 26% 21% 53% C B- D D- D F C+ F D+ A+ F A A- B- 13% 44% 42% A+ A- F+ A+ A C- C+ A+ A-
1.03 64% 27% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 0.8 .22 19% .25 57% .14 0.90 100% 26% 27% -4 -5 0.85 36% 0.6 .20 16% .33 63% .21
Nov
28		 LSU F+ F A+ F F+ 32% 14% 54% B- D- F D+ F A+ F A+ D A C+ F A A- 62% 4% 35% F B- A+ A+ A+ F+ C A+ B+
0.91 44% 50% 27% -9 0 0.86 14% 0.8 .12 10% .21 77% .16 1.04 59% 50% 28% -2 +4 1.06 15% 0.6 .09 10% .36 64% .23
Nov
29		 Georgia Tech A+ C+ B- C B- 57% 11% 33% A+ B+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D D+ A+ F C- 40% 21% 40% C- C- B+ C+ B F C A+ A+
1.29 58% 40% 33% 0 +3 1.07 29% 1.7 .48 9% .46 74% .34 1.14 62% 18% 43% +3 0 1.08 27% 1.1 .30 9% .30 39% .12
Dec
2		 Western Illinois A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 16% 53% D+ A+ D A+ A+ B- F A+ D C+ B+ F A+ D+ 23% 42% 35% A+ C C A+ A- F F B D
1.69 81% 75% 59% +33 0 1.69 29% 2.2 .65 13% .21 92% .20 0.89 45% 45% 24% -6 -4 0.83 24% 0.6 .14 13% .38 62% .23
Dec
5		 UAB D+ D+ F B- F+ 36% 24% 40% C- F+ D B C- A B- C+ B- C- F A- A+ C 36% 36% 28% A+ C+ F+ C D A- F D F
1.01 55% 8% 36% -7 -1 0.87 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 75% .20 1.08 71% 29% 23% -3 -2 0.91 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 75% .37
Dec
13		 North Dakota St. A A+ F A+ A+ 27% 20% 53% D+ A+ F+ F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F C A- F F 21% 23% 55% B F A+ F D+ F D- A C-
1.30 77% 30% 54% +19 -1 1.39 22% 0.3 .07 18% .49 90% .44 1.37 58% 31% 55% +16 -2 1.30 18% 2.0 .36 7% .33 64% .21
Dec
18		 Murray St. C A+ C F C 26% 45% 30% F D C+ B- C+ C A+ C+ A+ D+ C A+ C+ A 35% 15% 50% C- A C D- D+ F F F F
1.08 75% 38% 21% -1 -4 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 16% .41 74% .30 1.21 59% 0% 33% -6 +1 0.92 32% 1.3 .41 7% .50 84% .42
Dec
21		 Evansville D C B C C- 35% 18% 47% B- C- D- C- D D+ F+ F F C+ A- C+ A A 22% 36% 42% A A F+ F F C- F C- F
1.01 59% 44% 35% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 18% .21 45% .09 0.99 50% 38% 26% -7 -3 0.82 29% 1.3 .37 18% .41 73% .30
Dec
29		 Illinois St. F D+ D+ F F 26% 30% 44% D F F+ A+ D+ B+ C+ F C- C- F A F F 25% 18% 58% C+ F B+ A+ A+ A+ C B C+
0.85 54% 33% 23% -10 -2 0.78 18% 1.3 .23 14% .32 61% .19 1.10 100% 29% 57% +28 -1 1.58 24% 0.5 .12 35% .28 67% .19
Jan
4		 Indiana St. B- D+ A+ B A+ 33% 29% 37% D- A C- C+ C C+ F F F D- D+ A+ C+ C+ 39% 5% 57% C C+ F F F A- F F F
1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07 1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33
Jan
7		 Bradley F F F A- D+ 24% 22% 55% C+ D+ F F F C A+ F B+ F+ C F D F 33% 21% 46% C- F+ B+ F C- F+ F A- D-
0.89 42% 27% 39% -2 -1 0.96 15% 0.5 .08 19% .46 61% .28 1.25 58% 58% 38% +7 0 1.16 22% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .29
Jan
10		 Belmont D+ D D- A+ A+ 19% 13% 67% C A+ F F F F D+ F D- B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 11% 56% B- A+ F A D C+ F F F
1.04 50% 29% 46% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.8 .17 23% .25 64% .16 1.07 56% 17% 27% -9 +1 0.85 39% 1.1 .41 19% .43 76% .32
Jan
14		 Southern Illinois C- B+ A F F+ 27% 19% 54% C- F+ D- A+ B+ B- A+ B- A A D A A+ A+ 32% 31% 37% B A+ C- A+ B+ F D+ C+ D+
0.96 64% 50% 18% -9 -1 0.83 22% 1.7 .37 18% .38 72% .28 0.92 65% 32% 13% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.7 .20 10% .34 67% .22
Jan
17		 Illinois-Chicago C F A+ F+ B- 25% 25% 49% F+ C F+ F+ F A+ B- F D- C A A+ C- B+ 28% 23% 50% B B+ C+ D- D+ F F A+ F
1.01 38% 69% 28% -1 -2 0.96 26% 0.8 .21 15% .32 56% .18 1.12 45% 22% 35% -6 -1 0.88 35% 1.2 .41 14% .66 63% .42
Jan
21		 Murray St. B+ A B- D- B+ 28% 54% 18% F C D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ F F A+ C 32% 20% 48% B C+ A A A+ D F B+ D-
1.23 69% 42% 30% +4 -5 1.00 30% 1.7 .51 11% .56 78% .44 1.10 79% 50% 24% +2 0 1.05 24% 0.9 .22 13% .42 70% .30
Jan
24		 Indiana St. D+ A+ F F+ C- 30% 24% 46% D C- F+ F F B+ A+ D A A+ F B- A+ B- 33% 17% 50% A B B A+ A+ A+ D A C
1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25 0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18
Jan
28		 Evansville B A+ A D+ C+ 18% 22% 60% D C D D- D- A+ A+ C+ A+ F F D+ F F 23% 37% 40% A F B+ A+ A+ D A- A+ A
1.23 75% 50% 33% +5 -2 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 10% .63 74% .47 1.17 83% 42% 52% +18 -3 1.33 18% 0.6 .11 16% .21 58% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Bradley C+ A+ A+ F C- 17% 38% 45% F D B D+ C+ A+ A+ A A+ F A+ A+ F F 27% 29% 44% A- F F B+ F+ C- A- B A-
1.12 75% 56% 19% 0 -4 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 12% .46 81% .37 1.34 43% 20% 70% +14 -2 1.27 40% 0.9 .37 14% .25 71% .18
Feb
3		 Belmont A+ D A+ A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% C A+ B- A+ A+ C+ C C C F F C+ F F 34% 14% 53% B F B F D- F A A+ A+
1.29 50% 50% 48% +10 0 1.22 36% 1.7 .61 17% .28 75% .21 1.47 80% 38% 48% +19 +1 1.41 24% 1.8 .42 7% .23 53% .12
Feb
6		 Illinois St. B- D- A D+ C+ 33% 31% 35% D+ C B- D+ C B+ B- C B- D F+ A+ F D- 31% 20% 49% C+ D C C C D D- A+ C
1.06 50% 47% 32% -1 -2 0.96 29% 0.9 .26 14% .32 70% .23 1.20 71% 18% 44% +8 0 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 14% .34 57% .19
Feb
9		 Valparaiso B- D+ A+ F D- 34% 22% 44% C- D- C A+ A A+ F F+ F F A+ F F F 30% 24% 46% D F F+ F F B- F B- F
1.14 55% 46% 23% -6 0 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 9% .23 64% .15 1.21 43% 55% 43% +5 -1 1.11 38% 1.3 .50 16% .48 67% .32
Feb
12		 Illinois-Chicago C+ D+ F A B 33% 17% 50% C B- F A+ C- B C A- B- F D A- F F+ 30% 37% 33% A+ D+ B- A+ A F C+ F F+
1.07 53% 25% 39% 0 0 1.02 25% 1.3 .31 18% .30 81% .24 1.22 63% 30% 44% +4 -3 1.04 33% 0.8 .25 11% .31 94% .29
Feb
15		 Northern Iowa C- D- A+ C C 48% 6% 46% A B- D- C- D B B F C+ F F F F F 33% 15% 52% B- F B- F D+ F+ B- F D
0.94 48% 67% 32% -5 +3 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 15% .31 65% .20 1.31 71% 63% 41% +13 0 1.29 19% 1.4 .26 11% .22 92% .20
Feb
18		 Southern Illinois F C+ D F D 32% 23% 45% D+ D D+ D D+ C- D- F F B B A+ F A- 35% 24% 42% C- B+ D+ A+ A C+ C+ A+ B
0.86 59% 33% 25% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.9 .23 20% .23 46% .11 0.93 53% 8% 39% -6 -1 0.89 31% 0.5 .17 17% .29 59% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 2.0 3.4 5.3 8th
9th 47.1 40.4 7.2 94.7 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 47.1 42.3 10.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 10.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 10.5
7-13 42.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 42.2
6-14 47.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 47.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 99.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 32.2%