Richmond
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.0 129
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 150
Pace 68.7 181
Improvement -3.6 315

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 118 C+ D+ B B D-
Defense C 167 B- D+ C C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 352 B- 62% 84 -3.7 308
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 118 C 38% 191 +2.5 58
Three Pointers 42% 152 B 38% 36 +3.1 78
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.5 338 B +3.4 73
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 113
Second Chance D 25.7% 312 C 1.01 201 D+ 0.26 297
Turnovers B 14.7% 52
Freethrows B- 0.33 117 B+ 77% 30 B 0.25 67
Total Offense C+ +1.8 118

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 187 C+ 9.8% 113
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 175 B 2.8% 38
Three Pointers B- 89% 74 D+ 1.2% 273
Total C+ 57% 142 B 4.2% 36

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 348 C- 60% 229 -4.3 49
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 57 C 38% 162 +1.6 306
Three Pointers 45% 65 B 31% 55 +0.0 179
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.1 29 C+ -1.7 110
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 89
Second Chance C 30.7% 197 D- 1.16 336 D+ 0.35 291
Turnovers C 16.8% 188
Freethrows C+ 0.29 158 B- 71% 91 C+ 0.21 129
Total Defense C +0.2 167

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 39% 27 D 7.3% 320
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 79 D+ 3.2% 284
Three Pointers B- 80% 70 B 1.8% 46
Total B 48% 40 D 3.8% 317

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 154 17.4 198
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 60 0.16 129
Improvement -2.5 #306 -1.1 #258

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 154 131 112
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 8 - 10
Conference Finish 12 11 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 66% 80% 40%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 3%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Home) - 64.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 52 - 7
Quad 37 - 68 - 13
Quad 48 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 242 East Carolina W 87 - 72 81% +10  78% 1 - 0 B- +8 B- +5 B+ F B B- +2 C+ B- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 134 William & Mary W 90 - 86 63% +1  64% 2 - 0 C+ +3 B- +4 F A+ C- C- -2 A- D F
 Wed, Nov 19 358 VMI W 87 - 54 96% +21  99% 3 - 0 B+ +14 B +6 A- D- B- A +10 C+ D- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 363 Gardner-Webb W 102 - 67 97% +28  97% 4 - 0 B+ +14 A- +9 B+ C B+ B- +2 D- B- B
 Thu, Nov 27 181 Furman L 72 - 73 62% -6  3% 4 - 1 C- -2 C- -2 B F+ F C -0 C- F A-
 Fri, Nov 28 178 Charlotte W 71 - 66 62% +8  96% 5 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -3 C+ D- D A- +7 A- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 68 @Belmont W 84 - 76 19% -0  53% 6 - 1 A +19 B +7 A+ F B- A+ +12 A+ D B
 Sat, Dec 6 239 Old Dominion W 86 - 77 81% +4  83% 7 - 1 C+ +2 C +1 C- B- A C -0 B+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 13 128 Southern Illinois W 93 - 84 OT 61% +2  64% 8 - 1 B +8 B- +4 A F A- B- +3 A F A+
 Wed, Dec 17 203 @Elon L 70 - 73 57% +2  63% 8 - 2 C- -3 D -4 B C+ F C+ +1 D A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 342 The Citadel W 80 - 56 94% +11  98% 9 - 2 B +9 B- +4 B+ F B A- +7 C- C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 28 258 Charleston Southern L 72 - 77 84% -4  11% 9 - 3 D- -13 F+ -9 C- F C- D+ -4 B D C-
 Wed, Dec 31 80 George Washington L 85 - 99 42% -10  0% 9 - 4 0 - 1 D -10 A+ +15 A+ C- A+ F -25 F F D
 Sun, Jan 4 158 @Fordham W 83 - 75 46% +2  66% 10 - 4 1 - 1 B +11 A+ +20 A+ B- A+ F+ -8 D+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 143 @St. Bonaventure W 89 - 80 42% +7  93% 11 - 4 2 - 1 B+ +13 A +14 B- B+ B+ C -1 A F F
 Sun, Jan 11 130 Saint Joseph's L 65 - 67 62% -8  0% 11 - 5 2 - 2 C- -3 D- -7 D- F+ A+ B +4 C+ B- D
 Wed, Jan 14 212 La Salle W 74 - 53 77% +8  94% 12 - 5 3 - 2 A- +15 C+ +2 B- F A+ A+ +14 A A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 23 @Saint Louis L 63 - 88 6% -19  0% 12 - 6 3 - 3 D+ -6 C- -2 F+ B+ B- D+ -4 B B F+
 Wed, Jan 21 113 Rhode Island L 68 - 69 57% +2  72% 12 - 7 3 - 4 C -1 D -4 B F+ B B +4 A D+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 80 @George Washington L 69 - 85 22% -16  0% 12 - 8 3 - 5 D+ -6 C- -1 C- D- B- D -6 C+ F C-
 Tue, Jan 27 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 77 13% -8  0% 12 - 9 3 - 6 B- +6 A- +10 C- A+ B D+ -5 C C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 112 Davidson L 54 - 79 56% -17  0% 12 - 10 3 - 7 F -25 F+ -10 F A C+ F -20 F+ F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 113 @Rhode Island L 77 - 82 34% +0  44% 12 - 11 3 - 8 C +1 B+ +9 B F A- D- -7 B+ F D-
 Tue, Feb 10 105 George Mason W 82 - 70 52% +17  96% 13 - 11 4 - 8 B+ +13 B +7 A D B- B+ +7 A+ F A
 Sat, Feb 14 48 Virginia Commonwealth L 67 - 78 27% -10  0% 13 - 12 4 - 9 C- -3 D -6 F D- A+ B- +3 B- A C+
 Wed, Feb 18 112 @Davidson L 63 - 65 34% -6  13% 13 - 13 4 - 10 C+ +4 D+ -3 D D- A+ A- +7 A+ F C+
 Sat, Feb 21 143 St. Bonaventure W 78 - 74 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 277 @Loyola Chicago W 77 - 71 71%
 Tue, Mar 3 88 Dayton L 73 - 74 45%
 Sat, Mar 7 110 @Duquesne L 75 - 80 33%
Totals 15 - 15 6 - 12 +2 C+ +2 F+ B D- C +0 B B+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C B B 30% 42% 42% D- C+ D C D+ B B- B+ B C C- C B C+ 30% 25% 45% B+ B- C D- D+ C C+ B- C+
1.11 62% 38% 38% +3 -1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 15% .33 77% .25 1.08 60% 38% 31% -2 -1 0.96 31% 1.2 .35 17% .29 71% .23
Nov
8		 East Carolina B- A+ A+ F B+ 37% 18% 45% B- B+ F B F B A+ A- A+ B- D F A+ C- 28% 32% 40% A C+ A+ F B- C+ F C F
1.18 78% 56% 27% +6 0 1.14 15% 1.3 .19 15% .57 81% .46 0.97 62% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 18% .51 71% .36
Nov
11		 William & Mary B- F A+ F F 33% 8% 59% B- F A+ B A+ C- A+ B+ A+ C- F+ D A B+ 17% 21% 62% A+ A- B F D F F F+ F
1.16 47% 50% 27% -9 +1 0.86 45% 1.1 .51 19% .74 76% .56 1.11 70% 42% 28% -3 -2 0.93 23% 1.6 .35 9% .44 81% .36
Nov
19		 VMI B C A+ A+ A 30% 26% 44% D- A- F+ C- D- B- D- F F A C F A C+ 26% 9% 65% C- C+ C F D- A+ F A+ C+
1.32 63% 57% 50% +17 -1 1.33 31% 1.0 .31 15% .25 64% .16 0.82 55% 50% 25% -9 +1 0.86 25% 1.2 .31 24% .40 50% .20
Nov
22		 Gardner-Webb A- A+ F+ A+ A 32% 29% 39% F B+ B- D+ C B+ C- C- D+ B- F A+ F F 11% 36% 53% A+ D- B+ D+ B- B A- B A-
1.36 84% 29% 48% +14 -1 1.27 39% 1.0 .39 12% .27 72% .20 0.89 67% 21% 46% +5 -4 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 23% .19 64% .12
Nov
27		 Furman C- B- D- C+ B- 41% 12% 47% B+ B A- F F+ F A A+ A+ C F C+ B- D 26% 26% 49% A+ C- F+ F F A- F A+ B-
1.04 60% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.06 39% 0.5 .19 25% .33 88% .29 1.06 83% 42% 30% +5 -2 1.09 35% 1.3 .44 23% .40 43% .17
Nov
28		 Charlotte D+ C+ C B B- 36% 19% 45% C C+ C- F D- D A+ F A+ A- F D+ A+ A 33% 11% 56% C A- A+ D+ A+ F F B+ D-
1.08 60% 38% 37% +3 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .26 17% .62 59% .37 1.00 73% 40% 24% -3 +1 0.98 18% 1.0 .18 14% .42 67% .28
Dec
3		 Belmont B C- C A+ A+ 25% 33% 42% F A+ F C F B- B B+ B+ A+ D+ A+ A A+ 38% 5% 56% D+ A+ B- F D B B+ A+ A+
1.14 54% 35% 59% +14 -3 1.25 10% 1.0 .10 16% .32 80% .26 1.03 67% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.6 .41 20% .26 47% .12
Dec
6		 Old Dominion C B- F D+ C- 49% 28% 23% C- C- D+ A+ B- A A- F C+ C D- B A+ A- 30% 27% 43% C+ B+ D+ A B- F C F D+
1.14 64% 25% 31% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.3 .36 9% .41 64% .26 1.02 67% 31% 23% -6 -1 0.87 28% 0.8 .23 9% .29 80% .23
Dec
13		 Southern Illinois B- A+ A+ C- A+ 30% 30% 41% F+ A F A+ F A- A B+ A B- A- B C+ B 27% 51% 22% A+ A F+ F F A+ F F F
1.06 72% 56% 32% +8 -2 1.15 6% 1.5 .09 15% .36 74% .27 0.96 50% 37% 31% -4 -5 0.85 36% 1.1 .40 25% .38 80% .31
Dec
17		 Elon D D B- A+ A- 22% 26% 52% F+ B B+ D- C+ F F A+ C+ C+ C+ F F D- 43% 12% 45% C+ D C- A+ A+ B+ C+ C+ C+
1.06 50% 42% 46% +8 -2 1.15 39% 1.0 .39 30% .22 100% .22 1.10 57% 50% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.5 .15 20% .30 69% .21
Dec
20		 The Citadel B- A+ A+ D A 24% 22% 55% F B+ D F F B B+ C B A- B+ F C+ C- 31% 23% 46% B C- C B- C+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.24 100% 64% 32% +14 -1 1.27 28% 0.7 .19 12% .34 68% .23 0.87 47% 45% 32% -3 -1 0.94 26% 0.9 .24 25% .14 57% .08
Dec
28		 Charleston Southern F+ F+ F+ A+ C 29% 39% 31% F C- D F F C- A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ A- B 31% 11% 58% B- B F C+ D C- F C+ F
1.00 47% 30% 44% -2 -3 0.92 24% 0.2 .05 12% .46 86% .39 1.06 71% 17% 28% -4 +1 0.96 36% 0.9 .31 18% .39 65% .25
Dec
31		 George Washington A+ A- C+ A+ A+ 32% 22% 46% D+ A+ B F C- A+ A A+ A+ F D+ F F F 34% 8% 58% B F C+ F F D B F D+
1.30 69% 36% 48% +13 -1 1.26 33% 0.8 .27 12% .36 81% .30 1.51 65% 100% 48% +20 +1 1.44 36% 1.9 .68 15% .27 93% .25
Jan
4		 Fordham A+ A- F A+ A+ 24% 44% 32% F A+ D A+ B- A+ B A A- F+ F+ F A+ F+ 27% 36% 38% A+ D+ F B- F A- F B F
1.30 67% 23% 69% +12 -4 1.18 22% 1.4 .31 8% .31 78% .24 1.17 67% 56% 24% +3 -3 1.02 51% 0.9 .46 22% .48 67% .32
Jan
7		 St. Bonaventure A A+ D+ C+ B+ 35% 29% 35% D- B- B- B+ B+ B+ A+ C A+ C A F A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% D- A B- F F F A- A+ A
1.28 76% 36% 35% +7 -1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 14% .50 77% .39 1.15 46% 60% 25% -7 +1 0.90 33% 1.6 .53 10% .21 62% .13
Jan
11		 Saint Joseph's D- F F+ B+ C- 9% 49% 42% F D- F C- F+ A+ B C- B- B F A+ A- C 36% 18% 46% B- C+ A+ F B- D A+ A+ A+
0.93 40% 29% 38% -4 -6 0.82 20% 1.0 .20 10% .26 69% .18 0.96 70% 20% 27% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.2 .29 16% .10 50% .05
Jan
14		 La Salle C+ F A+ A+ A- 30% 35% 35% F B- F B F A+ C- B C A+ A B A A- 16% 42% 42% A+ A A+ A A+ F A+ A+ A+
1.12 44% 58% 42% +7 -2 1.11 16% 1.2 .19 9% .23 71% .17 0.80 44% 35% 26% -9 -4 0.76 20% 0.8 .15 14% .16 56% .09
Jan
17		 Saint Louis C- B- F F D+ 17% 48% 35% F F+ D A+ B+ B- B A A- D+ F F B+ C+ 33% 15% 52% A+ B D+ A B F+ F D- F
0.91 56% 27% 26% -10 -5 0.72 21% 1.4 .30 14% .35 81% .29 1.27 78% 50% 32% +7 0 1.17 35% 0.8 .29 13% .38 78% .30
Jan
21		 Rhode Island D B- B B+ B+ 31% 21% 48% D B F C- F+ B C- F F+ B C B- A+ A 48% 17% 35% C- A F+ B- D+ B F D F
0.99 60% 40% 39% +5 -1 1.10 20% 1.0 .20 19% .34 58% .20 1.00 59% 38% 19% -8 +1 0.89 39% 0.9 .33 22% .48 77% .37
Jan
24		 George Washington C- F+ C A- C- 41% 26% 33% C- C- B- F D- B- D+ A+ A- D C A+ F+ C 37% 7% 56% B- C+ B- F F C- B F+ C+
1.03 50% 36% 39% -1 -1 0.98 32% 0.7 .22 16% .25 100% .25 1.27 60% 0% 40% +3 +2 1.11 34% 1.5 .53 16% .27 80% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Virginia Commonwealth A- D B+ D+ B- 30% 43% 28% F C- A- A+ A+ B D+ C C- D+ A F F C 37% 10% 54% C C D A C+ F+ F F F
1.14 50% 45% 31% -1 -3 0.94 38% 1.4 .53 15% .27 71% .19 1.27 47% 50% 41% +3 +1 1.10 39% 0.9 .35 12% .50 81% .41
Jan
31		 Davidson F+ B- F F F 19% 26% 55% D F C- A+ A C+ B B- B F D+ C+ F F 27% 35% 39% A+ F+ F F F C- A+ A+ A+
0.94 63% 27% 22% -12 -2 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 17% .34 69% .23 1.37 62% 41% 53% +13 -3 1.22 50% 1.3 .64 16% .08 50% .04
Feb
7		 Rhode Island B+ F+ A+ A+ A 21% 30% 49% F B F+ F F A- F A+ D+ D- B- A+ B- A- 43% 19% 38% C+ B+ D+ F F D- F F F
1.13 45% 50% 42% +7 -2 1.11 23% 0.7 .16 18% .27 87% .23 1.21 56% 25% 31% -5 +1 0.93 35% 1.5 .52 16% .74 81% .60
Feb
10		 George Mason B A+ F A- A 28% 15% 57% B- A F+ B- D B- A- A+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% D A+ F D+ F A F B+ F
1.17 73% 25% 39% +6 0 1.15 19% 1.0 .19 14% .32 84% .27 1.00 63% 25% 19% -9 +1 0.86 38% 1.1 .41 21% .54 67% .36
Feb
14		 Virginia Commonwealth D C F F F 38% 21% 42% C- F F A D- A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A- F C C- 15% 23% 62% A+ B- A B A C+ B- F+ C
0.96 55% 18% 23% -12 0 0.77 16% 1.2 .19 11% .44 89% .39 1.12 50% 58% 34% +4 -2 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 16% .36 81% .29
Feb
18		 Davidson D+ D- F+ B- D+ 26% 36% 38% F+ D F A+ D- A+ F+ F F+ A- C A+ A+ A+ 28% 19% 53% C+ A+ D F F C+ F A- F
0.99 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 14% 1.6 .22 6% .23 57% .13 1.02 58% 25% 26% -9 0 0.84 34% 1.4 .47 17% .44 61% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.9 3.5 5.4 9th
10th 5.2 14.8 2.5 22.5 10th
11th 0.3 10.7 29.5 11.5 0.2 52.3 11th
12th 2.1 9.1 3.1 0.1 14.4 12th
13th 2.1 1.7 0.1 3.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 4.5 21.5 37.9 28.3 7.7 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 7.7% 0.6% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-11 28.3% 0.5% 0.5% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 28.2
6-12 37.9% 0.3% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 37.8
5-13 21.5% 0.2% 0.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.5
4-14 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 4.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 13.2 99.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 1.9%