Richmond
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#62
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#96
Pace69.0#185
Improvement+2.0#47

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#38
First Shot+7.0#19
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#273
Layup/Dunks+5.4#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#34
Freethrows-2.5#308
Improvement-1.6#301

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#113
First Shot+1.7#118
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#158
Layups/Dunks-3.1#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#109
Freethrows+2.4#55
Improvement+3.6#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.6% 24.2% 14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.1% 10.8% 4.4%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 11.2
.500 or above 93.8% 96.4% 86.3%
.500 or above in Conference 89.1% 90.8% 84.3%
Conference Champion 18.6% 20.4% 13.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four3.6% 4.2% 2.0%
First Round19.8% 22.1% 13.2%
Second Round7.3% 8.4% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.6% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 74.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 3
Quad 24 - 55 - 9
Quad 39 - 313 - 11
Quad 48 - 121 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 334   NC Central W 70-60 97%     1 - 0 -5.6 -8.2 +2.7
  Nov 12, 2021 50   Utah St. L 74-85 43%     1 - 1 -1.7 +10.8 -13.3
  Nov 16, 2021 145   Georgia St. W 94-78 80%     2 - 1 +14.5 +11.8 +1.8
  Nov 20, 2021 72   @ Drake L 70-73 41%     2 - 2 +7.0 +1.7 +5.3
  Nov 22, 2021 125   Hofstra W 81-68 77%     3 - 2 +12.8 +10.4 +3.4
  Nov 25, 2021 60   Maryland L 80-86 49%     3 - 3 +1.7 +6.4 -4.1
  Nov 27, 2021 48   Mississippi St. L 71-82 OT 42%     3 - 4 -1.5 +0.3 -1.5
  Dec 01, 2021 124   @ Wofford W 73-64 56%     4 - 4 +15.0 +9.7 +6.3
  Dec 05, 2021 127   @ Northern Iowa W 60-52 58%     5 - 4 +13.5 -6.9 +20.8
  Dec 11, 2021 111   Toledo W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 17, 2021 74   North Carolina St. W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 19, 2021 203   Old Dominion W 71-59 87%    
  Dec 22, 2021 309   Bucknell W 86-67 96%    
  Dec 30, 2021 207   Saint Joseph's W 83-71 87%    
  Jan 02, 2022 65   @ Saint Louis L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 05, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 84-77 75%    
  Jan 08, 2022 235   @ Fordham W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 11, 2022 139   George Mason W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 14, 2022 70   Davidson W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 22, 2022 248   @ La Salle W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 25, 2022 77   @ Rhode Island L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 29, 2022 82   Virginia Commonwealth W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 01, 2022 212   @ Duquesne W 75-69 72%    
  Feb 04, 2022 45   St. Bonaventure W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 09, 2022 139   @ George Mason W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 248   La Salle W 78-63 91%    
  Feb 18, 2022 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-66 44%    
  Feb 22, 2022 264   @ George Washington W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 25, 2022 65   Saint Louis W 76-73 60%    
  Mar 01, 2022 98   Dayton W 71-66 68%    
  Mar 04, 2022 45   @ St. Bonaventure L 66-71 32%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.1 6.0 3.9 1.5 0.3 18.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 6.2 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 6.2 5.1 1.1 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.8 5.3 1.2 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.4 1.6 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.9 2.1 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.5 0.2 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.5 8.3 12.0 14.1 15.4 14.3 11.4 7.8 4.1 1.5 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.7% 1.5    1.4 0.0
16-2 94.2% 3.9    3.3 0.6 0.0
15-3 76.7% 6.0    3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 44.8% 5.1    1.8 2.3 0.9 0.1
13-5 12.3% 1.8    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 10.9 5.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 97.0% 43.0% 54.1% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.8%
17-1 1.5% 89.5% 39.6% 49.9% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 82.6%
16-2 4.1% 75.6% 32.4% 43.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.0 63.8%
15-3 7.8% 55.3% 26.9% 28.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.5 38.8%
14-4 11.4% 37.8% 22.6% 15.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.3 0.1 7.1 19.6%
13-5 14.3% 24.3% 18.1% 6.2% 11.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.8 7.5%
12-6 15.4% 14.6% 12.8% 1.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 13.1 2.1%
11-7 14.1% 9.7% 9.2% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.7 0.6%
10-8 12.0% 5.8% 5.6% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.2%
9-9 8.3% 3.7% 3.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0
8-10 5.5% 2.5% 2.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3
7-11 3.1% 1.4% 1.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
6-12 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 21.6% 13.8% 7.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.9 3.0 6.2 6.2 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 78.4 9.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.2 20.6 8.8 26.5 32.4 2.9 2.9 5.9