Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 #257
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #293
Pace 69.3 #185
Improvement +1.0 #126

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #310 D C C D- F
Defense #169 C- C C C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #335 1.20 #137 -3.7 #304
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #57 0.68 #256 +1.6 #91
Three Pointers 42% #171 0.88 #311 -2.5 #266
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #295 -4.6 #295
Freethrows 17.0 #199 73% #164 12.4 #187
Second Chance 26.7% #285 1.24 #19 0.33 #145
Turnovers 19.1% #305
Total Offense -5.2 #310

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #268 1.12 #130 +2.5 #100
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #84 0.82 #274 -2.0 #314
Three Pointers 41% #183 1.12 #301 -2.2 #269
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #229 -1.7 #228
Freethrows 16.1 #131 75% #294 12.1 #171
Second Chance 30.1% #155 1.04 #188 0.31 #174
Turnovers 17.4% #137
Total Defense -0.1 #169

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.8% #328 -1.3% #73
Shot Type Make Effect -6.3% #271 4.6% #260
Possession Length 17.7 #220 15.1 #6
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #241 0.19 #248
Improvement -1.9 #308 +2.8 #26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.2% 3.3% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 55.7% 38.1% 60.7%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 22.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 10
Quad 33 - 113 - 20
Quad 43 - 37 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 3 @Purdue L 51-82 1%     -18.1   0 - 1 -5.4 -5.0 -4.6
  Wed, Nov 12 136 Middle Tennessee L 72-77 36%     -7.6   0 - 2 -6.8 -2.3 -4.4
  Tue, Nov 18 168 Texas Arlington L 76-84 44%     -3.3   0 - 3 -11.7 +6.7 -18.5
  Fri, Nov 21 165 Oregon St. W 73-69 32%     4.0   1 - 3 +3.4 +1.8 +1.8
  Sun, Nov 23 60 Akron L 59-97 10%     -12.8   1 - 4 -29.0 -14.6 -14.4
  Mon, Nov 24 162 College of Charleston L 59-78 31%     -11.5   1 - 5 -19.2 -14.7 -4.4
  Wed, Dec 3 299 Ball St. W 64-52 71%     1.1   2 - 5 +1.0 -10.1 +11.6
  Sat, Dec 6 154 @Western Kentucky L 79-80 21%     -2.6   2 - 6 +2.2 +4.8 -2.5
  Sat, Dec 13 61 @Notre Dame L 58-82 6%     -10.6   2 - 7 -12.0 -4.4 -8.8
  Tue, Dec 16 77 Belmont L 78-83 18%     -7.2   2 - 8 0 - 1 -0.4 -0.3 +0.3
  Sun, Dec 21 148 Drake L 65-66 39%     -2.1   2 - 9 0 - 2 -3.4 -4.8 +1.3
  Mon, Dec 29 116 @Bradley L 68-76 14%     1.8   2 - 10 0 - 3 -1.6 +0.1 -1.8
  Thu, Jan 1 68 @Illinois St. L 47-73 7%     -14.2   2 - 11 0 - 4 -14.9 -21.2 +6.9
  Sun, Jan 4 96 Northern Iowa L 58-66 22%    
  Wed, Jan 7 101 Murray St. L 74-82 23%    
  Sat, Jan 10 188 @Indiana St. L 69-76 28%    
  Tue, Jan 13 116 Bradley L 67-73 30%    
  Tue, Jan 20 199 @Illinois-Chicago L 69-75 29%    
  Sun, Jan 25 130 Southern Illinois L 70-74 35%    
  Wed, Jan 28 148 @Drake L 64-73 20%    
  Sat, Jan 31 96 @Northern Iowa L 55-69 10%    
  Tue, Feb 3 188 Indiana St. L 72-73 48%    
  Fri, Feb 6 206 @Valparaiso L 66-71 32%    
  Mon, Feb 9 68 Illinois St. L 65-75 17%    
  Thu, Feb 12 130 @Southern Illinois L 67-77 17%    
  Wed, Feb 18 199 Illinois-Chicago W 72-71 51%    
  Sat, Feb 21 101 @Murray St. L 71-85 11%    
  Wed, Feb 25 77 @Belmont L 68-84 7%    
  Sat, Feb 28 206 Valparaiso W 69-68 53%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 0.2 9.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 5.5 6.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 15.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.1 9.6 7.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 25.7 10th
11th 1.5 5.8 11.6 13.4 7.5 2.2 0.2 42.1 11th
Total 1.5 5.8 12.6 17.6 19.0 16.1 12.2 7.6 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.3% 0.3
10-10 0.8% 0.8
9-11 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.1
8-12 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
7-13 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
6-14 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-15 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-16 19.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.0
3-17 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.6
2-18 12.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.5
1-19 5.8% 5.8
0-20 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%