Evansville
Missouri Valley
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#237
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#281
Pace58.8#352
Improvement+2.4#36

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#272
First Shot+1.0#153
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#350
Layup/Dunks-7.1#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#24
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement+1.8#46

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#194
First Shot-2.6#264
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#79
Layups/Dunks-3.3#285
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#97
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement+0.6#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 2.2% 3.5% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 7.6% 9.1% 5.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.1% 41.5% 49.4%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Away) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 51 - 9
Quad 32 - 93 - 18
Quad 47 - 410 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 55   @ Cincinnati L 43-65 8%     0 - 1 -10.6 -19.8 +8.4
  Nov 11, 2021 349   IUPUI W 60-40 89%     1 - 1 +2.8 -8.5 +14.4
  Nov 13, 2021 57   @ Belmont L 43-81 9%     1 - 2 -26.9 -24.3 -4.0
  Nov 20, 2021 63   Central Florida L 59-75 21%     1 - 3 -11.5 -5.4 -7.7
  Nov 22, 2021 186   Rice L 104-109 3OT 38%     1 - 4 -5.9 +5.4 -10.3
  Nov 23, 2021 103   Vermont L 49-58 21%     1 - 5 -4.5 -16.0 +10.9
  Nov 24, 2021 153   Akron L 60-69 32%     1 - 6 -8.2 -4.8 -4.6
  Nov 28, 2021 350   @ Eastern Illinois W 70-54 76%     2 - 6 +4.6 +1.3 +4.7
  Dec 01, 2021 146   Southern Illinois L 52-54 40%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -3.5 -2.3 -1.9
  Dec 04, 2021 280   Tennessee Tech W 59-51 70%     3 - 7 -1.4 -15.1 +14.1
  Dec 08, 2021 304   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 18, 2021 343   Tennessee Martin W 70-58 88%    
  Dec 21, 2021 87   @ SMU L 60-73 11%    
  Jan 02, 2022 127   @ Northern Iowa L 59-69 19%    
  Jan 05, 2022 175   @ Indiana St. L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 08, 2022 242   Illinois St. W 66-63 62%    
  Jan 12, 2022 181   @ Bradley L 58-64 28%    
  Jan 15, 2022 72   Drake L 59-67 23%    
  Jan 18, 2022 33   Loyola Chicago L 54-67 12%    
  Jan 23, 2022 242   @ Illinois St. L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 26, 2022 127   Northern Iowa L 62-66 38%    
  Jan 29, 2022 101   @ Missouri St. L 60-72 14%    
  Feb 01, 2022 182   @ Valparaiso L 59-65 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 181   Bradley L 61-62 49%    
  Feb 09, 2022 175   Indiana St. L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 146   @ Southern Illinois L 53-62 22%    
  Feb 16, 2022 72   @ Drake L 56-70 11%    
  Feb 19, 2022 182   Valparaiso L 61-62 49%    
  Feb 23, 2022 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 51-70 5%    
  Feb 26, 2022 101   Missouri St. L 63-69 30%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.1 1.2 0.1 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 5.7 7.0 1.9 0.1 16.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.8 8.3 2.6 0.1 22.1 9th
10th 1.0 3.8 8.1 10.3 7.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 32.6 10th
Total 1.0 3.8 8.4 13.3 16.3 17.0 14.6 10.9 7.3 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 53.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 9.8% 9.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 5.7% 5.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.9% 3.2% 3.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-8 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
9-9 4.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
8-10 7.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.2
7-11 10.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 14.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.5
5-13 17.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.9
4-14 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.3
3-15 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
2-16 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.4
1-17 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%