IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Evansville
Missouri Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.5	#241
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.9	#214
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.3	#293

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.2	#170

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.3%	4.4%	1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.5	13.0	13.3

.500 or above	12.0%	50.1%	11.9%
.500 or above in Conference	16.9%	48.0%	16.8%
Conference Champion	1.1%	4.4%	1.1%
Last Place in Conference	32.2%	8.7%	32.2%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	1.3%	4.4%	1.2%
Second Round	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 0.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 5	1 - 8
Quad 3	4 - 9	4 - 16
Quad 4	5 - 3	9 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	2	@ Purdue	L	53-84	0.2%
Nov 12, 2025	147	Middle Tennessee	L	68-70	43%
Nov 18, 2025	202	Texas Arlington	W	70-69	53%
Nov 21, 2025	113	Oregon St.	L	62-70	23%
Dec 03, 2025	244	Ball St.	W	70-67	61%
Dec 06, 2025	156	@ Western Kentucky	L	69-76	26%
Dec 13, 2025	63	@ Notre Dame	L	57-74	7%
Dec 16, 2025	112	Belmont	L	70-75	33%
Dec 21, 2025	114	Drake	L	56-61	34%
Dec 29, 2025	107	@ Bradley	L	60-72	16%
Jan 01, 2026	109	@ Illinois St.	L	63-74	16%
Jan 04, 2026	110	Northern Iowa	L	63-68	33%
Jan 07, 2026	127	Murray St.	L	64-67	39%
Jan 10, 2026	170	@ Indiana St.	L	72-78	29%
Jan 13, 2026	107	Bradley	L	63-69	31%
Jan 20, 2026	154	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	66-74	26%
Jan 25, 2026	141	Southern Illinois	L	67-70	41%
Jan 28, 2026	114	@ Drake	L	53-64	18%
Jan 31, 2026	110	@ Northern Iowa	L	60-71	18%
Feb 03, 2026	170	Indiana St.	L	75-76	49%
Feb 06, 2026	261	@ Valparaiso	L	68-70	43%
Feb 09, 2026	109	Illinois St.	L	66-71	33%
Feb 12, 2026	141	@ Southern Illinois	L	64-73	24%
Feb 18, 2026	154	Illinois-Chicago	L	69-71	44%
Feb 21, 2026	127	@ Murray St.	L	61-70	23%
Feb 25, 2026	112	@ Belmont	L	67-78	19%
Feb 28, 2026	261	Valparaiso	W	71-67	62%
Projected Record						8 - 19	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			1.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0					1.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	0.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0						2.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.5	1.3	1.2	0.4	0.0								3.4	4th
5th									0.1	0.6	2.0	1.7	0.4	0.1									4.8	5th
6th								0.1	0.9	2.8	2.4	0.6	0.0										6.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.2	3.2	3.0	0.9	0.0											8.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.0	4.6	3.8	1.0	0.1												11.9	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	1.1	3.5	5.6	3.7	1.2	0.1													15.3	9th
10th		0.1	0.9	2.9	5.6	6.0	3.5	1.0	0.1														20.1	10th
11th	1.5	3.9	5.7	6.3	4.0	1.7	0.5	0.0															23.7	11th

Total	1.5	3.9	6.6	9.3	10.8	11.6	11.8	10.7	9.3	7.6	5.9	4.0	2.7	1.9	1.3	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0				Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-3	89.9%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-4	64.5%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
15-5	48.6%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-6	23.8%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	2.8%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.1%	1.1		0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%		40.2%	40.2%		9.5										0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0
18-2	0.0%		25.2%	25.2%		11.0												0.0						0.0
17-3	0.1%		33.3%	30.0%	3.3%	11.3												0.0	0.0					0.1		4.8%
16-4	0.4%		28.8%	28.8%		12.0												0.0	0.1	0.0				0.3
15-5	0.6%		8.7%	8.7%		12.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.6
14-6	1.3%		12.6%	12.6%		12.3												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			1.1
13-7	1.9%		10.6%	10.6%		12.8												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.7
12-8	2.7%		7.1%	7.1%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		2.5
11-9	4.0%		4.3%	4.3%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	3.8
10-10	5.9%		2.2%	2.2%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	5.7
9-11	7.6%		1.1%	1.1%		16.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.5
8-12	9.3%		0.6%	0.6%		15.5														0.0		0.0	0.0	9.2
7-13	10.7%		0.5%	0.5%		15.8																0.0	0.0	10.6
6-14	11.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
5-15	11.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.6
4-16	10.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
3-17	9.3%																							9.3
2-18	6.6%																							6.6
1-19	3.9%																							3.9
0-20	1.5%																							1.5

Total	100%		1.3%	1.3%	0.0%	13.5										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	98.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.5%