Evansville
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#243
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#269
Pace70.5#141
Improvement+2.9#26

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#247
First Shot+1.5#137
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#352
Layup/Dunks+1.6#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#104
Freethrows-1.9#285
Improvement-1.1#265

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#218
First Shot-2.4#250
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#119
Layups/Dunks-0.3#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#92
Freethrows-1.5#273
Improvement+4.0#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 8.6% 15.5% 5.1%
.500 or above in Conference 15.4% 20.8% 12.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 27.9% 21.3% 31.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 33.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 33 - 94 - 17
Quad 47 - 411 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 77   @ North Texas L 63-80 9%     0 - 1 -6.8 +4.9 -13.2
  Nov 13, 2024 128   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-80 20%     0 - 2 -12.3 -10.3 -1.2
  Nov 16, 2024 189   Radford L 81-92 50%     0 - 3 -15.3 +13.3 -29.8
  Nov 19, 2024 29   @ Ohio St. L 30-80 4%     0 - 4 -34.0 -34.5 -1.3
  Nov 22, 2024 310   Green Bay W 98-81 73%     1 - 4 +6.2 +4.6 -0.7
  Nov 24, 2024 278   Campbell W 66-53 69%     2 - 4 +3.6 -5.0 +9.4
  Dec 03, 2024 117   @ Murray St. L 61-63 17%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +3.8 -4.3 +8.0
  Dec 07, 2024 115   Western Kentucky L 75-80 33%    
  Dec 12, 2024 200   Chattanooga W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 18, 2024 161   @ Texas Arlington L 74-81 26%    
  Dec 21, 2024 270   @ Ball St. L 69-70 45%    
  Dec 29, 2024 165   Missouri St. L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 01, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois L 68-75 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 191   Indiana St. W 80-79 50%    
  Jan 08, 2025 170   Illinois St. L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 73   @ Drake L 58-73 9%    
  Jan 14, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa L 65-76 17%    
  Jan 18, 2025 132   Belmont L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 22, 2025 217   Illinois-Chicago W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 247   @ Valparaiso L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 29, 2025 117   Murray St. L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 02, 2025 132   @ Belmont L 73-82 21%    
  Feb 05, 2025 169   Southern Illinois L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 71   Bradley L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 12, 2025 165   @ Missouri St. L 66-73 27%    
  Feb 16, 2025 247   Valparaiso W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 19, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. L 77-83 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 217   @ Illinois-Chicago L 74-78 35%    
  Feb 26, 2025 73   Drake L 61-70 21%    
  Mar 02, 2025 170   @ Illinois St. L 68-75 28%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.6 0.9 0.1 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.8 1.3 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.7 6.4 3.5 0.4 0.0 15.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 6.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 17.1 11th
12th 0.3 1.6 3.9 5.5 4.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 19.0 12th
Total 0.3 1.6 4.1 7.2 10.7 12.8 14.0 13.1 11.6 9.1 6.2 4.3 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 67.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 21.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 17.4% 17.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.6% 7.5% 7.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.3% 5.5% 5.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
12-8 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
11-9 4.3% 2.3% 2.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2
10-10 6.2% 1.2% 1.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
9-11 9.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1
8-12 11.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.5
7-13 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
6-14 14.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-15 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
4-16 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
3-17 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.2
2-18 4.1% 4.1
1-19 1.6% 1.6
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%