Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 #267
Expected Predictive Rating -8.0 #294
Pace 68.8 #176
Improvement +0.0 #180

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #316 C- D+ D- C D
Defense #173 C- C C C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #334 1.25 #82 -2.4 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #66 0.74 #187 +2.2 #70
Three Pointers 42% #167 0.92 #301 -1.7 #246
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #236 -2.0 #236
Freethrows 0.30 #196 72% #186 0.22 #187
Second Chance 23.6% #343 1.10 #112 0.26 #301
Turnovers 19.7% #342
Total Offense -5.6 #316

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #258 1.15 #164 +1.6 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #86 0.87 #332 -2.5 #341
Three Pointers 41% #202 1.07 #258 -0.7 #216
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #228 -1.6 #232
Freethrows 0.30 #178 72% #173 0.22 #174
Second Chance 30.8% #189 1.01 #124 0.31 #157
Turnovers 16.6% #167
Total Defense -0.3 #173

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #323 -1.1% #85
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #195 4.2% #259
Possession Length 18.0 #240 15.5 #6
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #309 0.22 #328
Improvement -0.9 #235 +1.0 #127

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 89.8% 77.1% 91.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 12.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 70 - 9
Quad 33 - 133 - 22
Quad 42 - 25 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 8 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1% -18  0 - 1 -8 -7 F A+ C+ -5 C- B C-
 Wed, Nov 12 152 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 37% -8  0 - 2 -8 -2 B- D D+ -5 D- A C
 Tue, Nov 18 153 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 38% -3  0 - 3 -11 +7 C A+ C -18 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 180 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 34% +4  1 - 3 +2 +1 C- C+ F+ +1 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 60 Akron L 59 - 97 9% -13  1 - 4 -29 -12 D- B F -17 D- F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 155 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 28% -12  1 - 5 -19 -13 F+ F C- -5 D- C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 297 Ball St. W 64 - 52 68% +1  2 - 5 +1 -11 D- F F +13 B+ A A
 Sat, Dec 6 168 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 21% -3  2 - 6 +2 +6 B- B- D- -4 D- A- A
 Sat, Dec 13 80 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 8% -11  2 - 7 -14 -7 B- D F -8 D- A- B-
 Tue, Dec 16 78 Belmont L 78 - 83 17% -7  2 - 8 0 - 1 -1 -1 C D- C+ +0 B+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 150 Drake L 65 - 66 37% -2  2 - 9 0 - 2 -4 -4 F B+ F+ +1 C C A-
 Mon, Dec 29 126 @Bradley L 68 - 76 15% +2  2 - 10 0 - 3 -3 -1 D- C+ A- -2 C+ A F
 Thu, Jan 1 87 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 8% -14  2 - 11 0 - 4 -17 -21 F F+ F +5 C+ A+ D-
 Sun, Jan 4 111 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 27% -12  2 - 12 0 - 5 -14 -15 D+ F F -0 D- B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 101 Murray St. L 69 - 79 23% -4  2 - 13 0 - 6 -8 -7 B- F F -1 B C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 197 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 26% +0  3 - 13 1 - 6 +4 -2 B+ F F +6 A+ D D-
 Tue, Jan 13 126 Bradley L 90 - 94 OT 32% +3  3 - 14 1 - 7 -5 +9 A- C C -14 D- B F
 Tue, Jan 20 137 @Illinois-Chicago L 49 - 76 17% -13  3 - 15 1 - 8 -23 -19 F F F -5 D- C D-
 Wed, Jan 28 150 @Drake L 78 - 82 19% +6  3 - 16 1 - 9 -1 +11 A+ F C- -11 C- C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 111 @Northern Iowa L 56 - 68 12%
 Tue, Feb 3 197 Indiana St. L 73 - 74 48%
 Fri, Feb 6 166 @Valparaiso L 64 - 72 21%
 Mon, Feb 9 87 Illinois St. L 65 - 74 19%
 Thu, Feb 12 129 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 76 16%
 Wed, Feb 18 137 Illinois-Chicago L 68 - 72 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 101 @Murray St. L 72 - 86 10%
 Wed, Feb 25 78 @Belmont L 67 - 83 6%
 Sat, Feb 28 166 Valparaiso L 67 - 69 41%
Totals 5 - 23 3 - 16 -6 -6 C- D+ D- +0 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.3 3.2 7.0 6.2 2.0 0.1 0.0 18.8 10th
11th 10.3 25.5 26.0 13.7 3.0 0.2 0.0 78.7 11th
Total 10.3 25.8 29.2 20.8 9.8 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.3
5-15 9.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.7
4-16 20.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.8
3-17 29.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 29.1
2-18 25.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.8
1-19 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.3
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.6%