Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.9 295
Results Rating -7.2 280
Consistency 0.17 253
Pace 67.1 219
Improvement -2.8 284

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 296 C- D D+ D+ D-
Defense D+ 274 D C C- C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 349 B- 63% 78 -3.3 298
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 110 C 39% 150 +2.4 58
Three Pointers 43% 138 D+ 32% 273 -0.2 187
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.3 330 C +0.2 159
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 208
Second Chance F+ 21.5% 355 B- 1.11 78 D 0.24 331
Opponents' Steals D- 11.4% 330
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 161
Turnovers D+ 18.5% 293
Freethrows D+ 0.27 281 C+ 73% 166 D+ 0.20 260
Total Offense D+ -4.5 296

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 52% 118 B 8.8% 58
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 94 B 2.6% 30
Three Pointers C 85% 175 B- 0.6% 107
Total C+ 58% 136 A- 3.6% 17


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 309 C- 60% 224 -2.3 99
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 123 C- 39% 238 +0.8 256
Three Pointers 44% 81 F+ 39% 356 +5.1 348
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 86 D- +4.0 326
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 302
Second Chance C- 31.5% 240 C+ 1.01 137 C 0.32 208
Turnovers from Steals D 7.6% 314
Other Turnovers B+ 8.6% 46
Turnovers C- 16.2% 214
Freethrows B- 0.27 80 D 75% 323 C+ 0.20 113
Total Defense D+ -3.4 274

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 184 C 11.3% 159
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 302 B 7.7% 46
Three Pointers D 89% 315 C- 0.6% 225
Total D+ 61% 296 C 5.8% 159

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 293 16.4 33
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 355 0.20 278
Consistency 0.14 286 0.13 243
Improvement +1.8 94 -4.6 346

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 307 298 289
Results Rating Rank 282 278 265
Conference Record 3 - 17 3 - 17 3 - 17
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 100 - 13
Quad 34 - 104 - 22
Quad 41 - 35 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 7 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1% -18  7% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F+ -9 F A+ B- C- -2 C- A- C-
 Wed, Nov 12 162 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 33% -8  4% 0 - 2 D -8 D- -7 C D- D+ C- -2 D A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 18 179 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 36% -3  27% 0 - 3 D- -12 B- +4 C A+ C- F -17 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 157 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 23% +4  82% 1 - 3 C+ +4 C -0 C- C+ D- B +4 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 69 Akron L 59 - 97 7% -13  3% 1 - 4 F -30 F -15 F+ A- F F -15 F+ F C+
 Mon, Nov 24 143 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 20% -12  2% 1 - 5 F -18 F -15 F F C C- -3 D- C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 292 Ball St. W 64 - 52 61% +1  51% 2 - 5 C +1 F -11 D+ F+ F A+ +13 B A A
 Sat, Dec 6 129 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 12% -3  43% 2 - 6 C+ +4 B- +4 B+ C D C -0 D- B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 86 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 6% -11  1% 2 - 7 D- -14 F -11 C+ D- F D -5 F+ A- B
 Tue, Dec 16 67 Belmont L 78 - 83 11% -7  0% 2 - 8 0 - 1 C +1 D+ -4 C F+ C+ B+ +5 A- A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 206 Drake L 65 - 66 40% -2  38% 2 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -6 F+ -10 F B+ F+ B- +3 C- B- A-
 Mon, Dec 29 111 @Bradley L 68 - 76 10% +2  61% 2 - 10 0 - 3 C -2 D+ -3 D- C+ B+ C+ +2 B- A F
 Thu, Jan 1 99 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 7% -14  9% 2 - 11 0 - 4 F+ -18 F -24 F F F A- +7 B- A+ F+
 Sun, Jan 4 90 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 15% -12  0% 2 - 12 0 - 5 D -11 F -17 D+ F F B +5 D B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 125 Murray St. L 69 - 79 24% -4  20% 2 - 13 0 - 6 D -10 F -11 C+ F F C+ +1 B C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 199 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 20% +0  46% 3 - 13 1 - 6 C+ +4 D -4 B+ F F A- +8 A+ D- F+
 Tue, Jan 13 111 Bradley L 90 - 94 OT 21% +3  55% 3 - 14 1 - 7 C- -4 B +7 A C- C- F -10 D- B F
 Tue, Jan 20 114 @Illinois-Chicago L 49 - 76 10% -13  11% 3 - 15 1 - 8 F -21 F -19 F F F C- -3 D- D+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 206 @Drake L 78 - 82 21% +6  88% 3 - 16 1 - 9 C- -3 B- +5 A+ F D+ F+ -9 D+ B F+
 Sat, Jan 31 90 @Northern Iowa L 55 - 71 6% -16  5% 3 - 17 1 - 10 D+ -7 C- -0 C C A F+ -9 D- F A
 Tue, Feb 3 199 Indiana St. L 63 - 84 39% -15  1% 3 - 18 1 - 11 F -26 D- -7 D+ D C- F -22 F F F
 Fri, Feb 6 151 @Valparaiso L 63 - 70 OT 15% -1  25% 3 - 19 1 - 12 C- -4 F+ -9 C F D+ B+ +6 A+ F A
 Mon, Feb 9 99 Illinois St. W 88 - 80 17% +9  82% 4 - 19 2 - 12 B +10 A+ +20 A+ D+ A+ F+ -9 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 120 @Southern Illinois L 60 - 86 10% -15  8% 4 - 20 2 - 13 F -20 D -5 B- F D- F -15 F F C
 Wed, Feb 18 114 Illinois-Chicago L 46 - 84 22% -16  0% 4 - 21 2 - 14 F -38 F -24 F F+ D+ F -17 F C- A
 Sat, Feb 21 125 @Murray St. L 75 - 88 11% -1  42% 4 - 22 2 - 15 D+ -7 D+ -3 B D C D+ -4 C- B F
 Wed, Feb 25 67 @Belmont L 64 - 98 5% -19  0% 4 - 23 2 - 16 F -22 D- -6 B- D- C F -17 F A F
 Sat, Feb 28 151 Valparaiso W 80 - 79 31% -1  29% 5 - 23 3 - 16 C- -2 B +6 C- A- A- D- -8 D A F
 Sun, Mar 1 120 Southern Illinois L 67 - 81 23% -4  11% 5 - 24 3 - 17 D- -14 C+ +3 B+ F A F -19 F+ B F
Totals 5 - 24 3 - 17 -8 D+ -5 F+ C D- D+ -3 D+ C+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ B- C D+ C 30% 44% 43% D- C- F+ B- D D+ D+ C+ D+ D+ C- C- F+ D- 34% 22% 44% B- D C- C+ C C- B- D C+
1.02 63% 39% 32% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.1 .24 19% .27 73% .20 1.13 60% 39% 39% +4 -1 1.09 31% 1.0 .32 16% .27 75% .20
Nov
4		 Purdue F+ C- F F F 17% 33% 50% D- F A+ D+ A+ B- F F F C- D+ B F C- 27% 23% 50% B C- C A+ A- C- C F D+
0.83 56% 24% 15% -19 -3 0.58 42% 1.0 .42 16% .08 50% .04 1.33 69% 36% 46% +12 -1 1.23 38% 1.0 .38 11% .29 81% .24
Nov
12		 Middle Tennessee D- B- A F C+ 44% 31% 25% D- C D- D+ D- D+ A D- B+ C- F F A+ F+ 27% 31% 42% A- D B A+ A+ C- D+ A C+
1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29 1.08 73% 65% 26% +7 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17
Nov
18		 Texas Arlington B- A F D- C 35% 26% 39% C C C- A+ A+ C- A+ C- A+ F F F F F 33% 28% 38% A F F F F A+ F F F
1.11 69% 25% 28% -3 -1 0.93 26% 2.0 .53 18% .55 71% .39 1.23 69% 64% 47% +18 -1 1.36 56% 1.3 .72 31% .50 83% .42
Nov
21		 Oregon St. C A F D- C 31% 29% 40% F C- B+ D C+ D- A+ A- A+ B A F A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% D+ A+ F F F B- D- F+ F
1.08 69% 25% 29% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 18% .63 80% .50 1.02 42% 63% 16% -14 +1 0.76 39% 1.5 .58 19% .42 83% .35
Nov
23		 Akron F B- A F D- 30% 26% 44% D- F+ D A+ A- F A+ F A+ F F F C- F+ 42% 8% 50% F+ F+ F F F C+ F B- F
0.84 62% 45% 21% -6 -1 0.88 27% 1.6 .42 26% .44 65% .29 1.39 76% 50% 36% +10 +2 1.26 40% 2.1 .84 17% .47 74% .35
Nov
24		 College of Charleston F D- C F F 47% 21% 32% B+ F F A+ F C A- C+ A- C- B+ D F F+ 31% 20% 49% C+ D- B- C- C+ C+ C- C- C-
0.84 52% 36% 18% -11 +1 0.81 6% 2.0 .11 14% .30 72% .22 1.11 53% 40% 42% +5 -1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 17% .36 76% .27
Dec
3		 Ball St. F A+ A- F D+ 26% 23% 51% D D+ D- D- F+ F A- C- B+ A+ B+ A B+ B 31% 25% 44% A- B B A+ A A C+ C- C+
0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27 0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19
Dec
6		 Western Kentucky B- A- D A+ A 12% 33% 56% F B+ B- D C D C F F+ C A- B+ F D- 45% 24% 31% C+ D- F+ A+ B+ A F+ C+ D-
1.08 67% 35% 45% +9 -3 1.13 31% 0.8 .26 21% .40 57% .22 1.10 44% 31% 53% +1 0 1.04 38% 0.6 .24 19% .39 74% .29
Dec
13		 Notre Dame F B- F+ B- B- 28% 22% 50% C- C+ C- F D- F D F F D A+ F+ F F 25% 29% 45% A- F+ B+ A- A- B C+ C- C
0.87 62% 30% 35% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.8 .17 20% .24 62% .15 1.23 38% 47% 57% +13 -2 1.24 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 71% .22
Dec
16		 Belmont D+ F D A- C 24% 19% 57% C- C F+ D- F+ C+ A+ A A+ B+ B+ A+ F A 50% 13% 37% C- A- A A+ A+ C+ F D+ F
1.02 38% 30% 39% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 17% .38 83% .32 1.09 56% 14% 45% +2 +2 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 18% .40 72% .29
Dec
21		 Drake F+ F+ C+ F F 22% 36% 42% F F C- A+ B+ F+ A+ B- A+ B- C D+ C- C- 35% 18% 47% D+ C- C B B- A- A A+ A+
0.99 50% 38% 26% -7 -3 0.82 29% 1.3 .37 18% .41 73% .30 1.01 59% 44% 35% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 18% .21 45% .09
Dec
29		 Bradley D+ C- C+ D C- 17% 47% 36% F D- D A+ C+ B+ F C- F C+ F A+ D+ C 26% 39% 35% A+ B- C A+ A F C F D+
0.99 56% 40% 32% -1 -5 0.91 25% 1.3 .33 16% .24 71% .17 1.10 79% 24% 37% +1 -3 0.98 28% 0.6 .18 7% .33 81% .27
Jan
1		 Illinois St. F D- F D+ F 21% 38% 40% F F D F F F D+ C D+ A- C- D+ B- B- 36% 23% 42% C+ B- A+ D A+ F+ C- A C+
0.66 50% 17% 32% -11 -4 0.72 22% 0.6 .14 32% .27 69% .19 1.02 63% 42% 32% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.2 .18 13% .30 63% .19
Jan
4		 Northern Iowa F A+ C- F D+ 42% 26% 33% C- D+ F B F F C+ D+ C B A+ D F F+ 30% 21% 49% A- D C+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A- B-
0.75 72% 36% 7% -8 0 0.86 7% 1.0 .07 24% .27 69% .18 0.97 46% 44% 48% +8 -1 1.16 21% 0.8 .17 25% .23 64% .15
Jan
7		 Murray St. F A+ A F B- 41% 35% 24% D- C+ F F F F B C+ B C+ C+ F A B 40% 17% 42% C B A- F C+ D- F A D
0.97 76% 50% 8% +3 -2 1.04 16% 0.4 .06 21% .34 74% .25 1.11 57% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 27% 1.3 .35 13% .43 67% .29
Jan
10		 Indiana St. D D+ B- A+ A- 38% 23% 39% C- B+ F A+ F F F A+ F A- B+ D+ A+ A+ 47% 13% 40% C+ A+ F C+ D- F+ D+ D+ D+
1.00 52% 46% 45% +6 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07 0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20
Jan
13		 Bradley B A B+ A+ A+ 20% 36% 44% F A D B+ C- C- A+ B- A+ F D+ F B F+ 40% 28% 32% B- D- C- A+ B F D D+ D-
1.18 70% 44% 45% +12 -3 1.20 25% 1.1 .28 20% .51 74% .38 1.24 63% 59% 32% +6 -1 1.13 29% 0.8 .24 8% .37 77% .29
Jan
20		 Illinois-Chicago F F B F F 25% 11% 64% C F D F F F D- A+ C- C- F F+ A+ F+ 43% 29% 27% B D- B- F+ D+ F C- A+ B-
0.73 45% 40% 25% -12 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21 1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21
Jan
28		 Drake B- A+ B+ A+ A+ 23% 37% 40% F A+ F F F D+ F F F F+ F F C D- 18% 22% 60% B+ D+ C- A B F+ F D F
1.17 83% 42% 52% +18 -3 1.33 18% 0.6 .11 16% .21 58% .13 1.23 75% 50% 33% +5 -2 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 10% .63 74% .47
Jan
31		 Northern Iowa C- B A+ F B- 17% 30% 52% F C D- A+ C A F A+ F F+ F F B F+ 31% 16% 53% B D- F F F A A+ D- A+
0.95 63% 50% 25% -3 -3 0.91 19% 1.2 .23 14% .14 86% .12 1.22 87% 50% 31% +8 0 1.18 28% 1.7 .48 19% .08 75% .06
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Indiana St. D- D- A+ F C+ 17% 40% 43% F D+ D- C- D C- A- F B- F D- C+ F F 37% 15% 48% A- F F F+ F F A A+ A
1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21 1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09
Feb
6		 Valparaiso F+ F+ F A+ C+ 35% 25% 39% D+ C F+ F F D+ F F F B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 23% 38% 40% A- A+ F F F A A F B
0.91 50% 23% 45% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.6 .13 19% .20 64% .12 1.01 55% 22% 26% -11 -3 0.73 43% 1.6 .69 20% .27 80% .22
Feb
9		 Illinois St. A+ D+ A A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% D+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ B- A+ A F+ F A F F 29% 20% 52% C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ C B
1.33 53% 47% 65% +20 -2 1.38 8% 2.5 .21 11% .32 84% .27 1.21 81% 27% 41% +10 -1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 11% .24 71% .17
Feb
12		 Southern Illinois D B+ A- D+ B 21% 25% 55% D- B- D- F F D- F B+ F F F A+ D- F 42% 13% 45% F F F F+ F C A+ F B+
0.88 64% 46% 31% +1 -2 1.00 23% 0.6 .14 22% .08 75% .06 1.26 74% 29% 36% +7 +1 1.18 43% 1.1 .47 16% .19 82% .16
Feb
18		 Illinois-Chicago F A+ F F F 21% 19% 60% D F F A+ F+ D+ F F F F D- C+ F F 28% 22% 50% B+ F F+ B C- A A+ F A+
0.71 80% 11% 18% -15 -1 0.70 16% 1.3 .22 22% .16 63% .10 1.30 64% 36% 60% +21 -1 1.42 41% 0.9 .38 23% .10 80% .08
Feb
21		 Murray St. D+ A D+ B+ A- 29% 25% 46% D B F A+ D C F A+ F D+ C+ A+ F C- 29% 10% 61% C- C- B+ C+ B F F+ F F
1.04 69% 36% 38% +6 -1 1.11 7% 4.0 .27 17% .10 83% .08 1.22 57% 20% 40% +3 +1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 11% .41 92% .37
Feb
25		 Belmont D- A+ A F C+ 36% 18% 46% C+ B- F A+ D- C F F F F B- A+ F F 31% 7% 62% C+ F C A+ A F A+ F A+
0.95 78% 44% 22% 0 0 1.02 18% 1.3 .24 18% .18 60% .11 1.45 59% 25% 62% +25 +1 1.55 28% 0.9 .24 13% .15 78% .12
Feb
28		 Valparaiso B C- F+ A C 39% 31% 31% D C- F A+ A- A- A- A+ A+ D- C+ C- F F 18% 39% 43% A+ D A+ F A F F F F
1.18 58% 27% 40% -1 -1 0.98 14% 2.8 .39 13% .37 95% .36 1.16 56% 37% 43% +5 -4 1.04 15% 1.4 .21 9% .45 86% .39
Mar
1		 Southern Illinois C+ B- B+ B- A- 31% 22% 47% D+ B+ F F F A C+ A+ B+ F C- A+ F F+ 43% 22% 35% D F+ F A+ B F A- F C-
1.05 60% 45% 35% +3 -1 1.06 19% 0.3 .06 14% .29 81% .24 1.27 61% 25% 47% +5 0 1.13 37% 0.6 .23 9% .22 92% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 92.5%