Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -8.1 299
Results Rating -8.3 300
Consistency 0.17 268
Pace 67.3 218
Improvement -3.7 320

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 310 C- D D D+ D-
Defense D+ 256 D C- C B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 350 B 63% 71 -3.4 298
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 112 C+ 39% 143 +2.4 58
Three Pointers 43% 132 D+ 31% 286 -0.4 190
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.3 332 C +0.1 169
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 211
Second Chance F+ 22.0% 351 B- 1.09 93 D 0.24 325
Turnovers from Steals D- 11.6% 336
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 195
Turnovers D 19.0% 310
Freethrows D 0.27 292 C 72% 200 D+ 0.19 286
Total Offense D -5.4 310

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 126 B- 9.3% 88
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 123 B 2.9% 40
Three Pointers C 85% 175 B- 0.6% 111
Total C+ 57% 149 B+ 3.8% 19

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 310 C- 60% 229 -2.2 102
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 125 C- 40% 259 +1.0 270
Three Pointers 44% 84 F+ 39% 349 +4.7 343
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 84 D +3.9 323
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 296
Second Chance C- 32.0% 252 C 1.02 160 C- 0.33 225
Turnovers from Steals D 7.7% 306
Other Turnovers A- 9.0% 22
Turnovers C 16.7% 188
Freethrows B- 0.27 81 D+ 74% 264 B- 0.20 100
Total Defense D+ -2.7 256

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 182 C 11.2% 162
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 283 B+ 8.4% 40
Three Pointers D 89% 326 C- 0.6% 220
Total D+ 60% 288 C 5.9% 151

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 288 16.4 35
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 354 0.20 277
Consistency 0.14 267 0.13 221
Improvement -0.1 189 -3.6 331

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 314 301 283
Results Rating Rank 317 296 272
Conference Record 2 - 18 2 - 18 4 - 16
Conference Finish 11 11 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 96% 86% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 100 - 12
Quad 33 - 103 - 22
Quad 41 - 35 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 7 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1% -18  7% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F+ -8 F A+ B C- -2 C- B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 168 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 32% -8  4% 0 - 2 D -8 D- -7 C+ D- D+ C- -2 D A+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 181 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 35% -3  27% 0 - 3 D- -12 B- +4 C A+ C- F -16 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 155 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 22% +4  82% 1 - 3 C+ +4 C +0 D+ C+ D- B +4 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 77 Akron L 59 - 97 8% -13  3% 1 - 4 F -30 F -15 F+ B+ F F -15 F+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 151 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 21% -12  2% 1 - 5 F -19 F -15 F F C D+ -4 F+ C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 313 Ball St. W 64 - 52 65% +1  51% 2 - 5 C -0 F -12 D F+ F+ A+ +12 B A A-
 Sat, Dec 6 147 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 14% -3  43% 2 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +3 B+ C D- C -1 D- B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 93 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 6% -11  1% 2 - 7 F+ -15 F -11 C+ D F+ D -6 F+ A- B-
 Tue, Dec 16 62 Belmont L 78 - 83 10% -7  0% 2 - 8 0 - 1 C +1 D+ -4 C F+ C+ B +5 A- A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 188 Drake L 65 - 66 38% -2  38% 2 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -6 F+ -10 F B+ F+ B +4 C- C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 113 @Bradley L 68 - 76 10% +2  61% 2 - 10 0 - 3 C- -2 D+ -3 D- C+ B+ C+ +1 B- A F
 Thu, Jan 1 98 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 7% -14  9% 2 - 11 0 - 4 F -18 F -24 F F+ F A- +7 C+ A+ F+
 Sun, Jan 4 95 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 15% -12  0% 2 - 12 0 - 5 D -11 F -18 D+ F F B +5 D B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 123 Murray St. L 69 - 79 23% -4  20% 2 - 13 0 - 6 D -10 F -11 C+ F F C+ +1 B C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 213 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 22% +0  46% 3 - 13 1 - 6 C+ +3 D -5 B+ F F A- +8 A+ D D-
 Tue, Jan 13 113 Bradley L 90 - 94 OT 21% +3  55% 3 - 14 1 - 7 C- -4 B +7 A C- C- F -11 D- B F
 Tue, Jan 20 106 @Illinois-Chicago L 49 - 76 9% -13  11% 3 - 15 1 - 8 F -20 F -19 F F F C- -2 D C- F
 Wed, Jan 28 188 @Drake L 78 - 82 19% +6  88% 3 - 16 1 - 9 C- -3 B- +5 A+ F D+ F+ -8 D+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 95 @Northern Iowa L 55 - 71 7% -16  5% 3 - 17 1 - 10 D+ -7 C- -1 C- C A F+ -9 D- F A
 Tue, Feb 3 213 Indiana St. L 63 - 84 42% -15  1% 3 - 18 1 - 11 F -27 D- -7 D+ D- C- F -22 F F F+
 Fri, Feb 6 150 @Valparaiso L 63 - 70 OT 14% -1  25% 3 - 19 1 - 12 C- -4 F+ -9 C F D+ B+ +5 A+ F A
 Mon, Feb 9 98 Illinois St. W 88 - 80 17% +9  82% 4 - 19 2 - 12 B +10 A+ +20 A+ D+ A+ F+ -9 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 124 @Southern Illinois L 60 - 86 10% -15  8% 4 - 20 2 - 13 F -20 D -5 B- F D- F -16 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 18 106 Illinois-Chicago L 46 - 84 19% -16  0% 4 - 21 2 - 14 F -37 F -23 F F D+ F -17 F C A
 Sat, Feb 21 123 @Murray St. L 75 - 88 10% -1  42% 4 - 22 2 - 15 D+ -7 D+ -3 B+ D C D+ -4 C- B+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 62 @Belmont L 64 - 98 4% -19  0% 4 - 23 2 - 16 F -22 D -6 B- D- C F -17 F A F
 Sat, Feb 28 150 Valparaiso L 66 - 72 31%
 Sun, Mar 1 124 Southern Illinois L 65 - 73 23%
Totals 5 - 24 3 - 17 -8 D -5 A- C D- D+ -3 D+ C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D B C+ D+ C 30% 44% 43% D- C- F+ B- D D D C D+ D+ C- C- F+ D 34% 22% 44% B- D C- C C- C B- D+ B-
1.01 63% 39% 31% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.1 .24 19% .27 72% .19 1.13 60% 40% 39% +4 -1 1.09 32% 1.0 .33 17% .27 74% .20
Nov
4		 Purdue F+ C- F F F 17% 33% 50% D- F A+ C- A+ B F F F C- D+ B+ F C- 27% 23% 50% B- C- C A B+ C- C F D+
0.83 56% 24% 15% -19 -3 0.58 42% 1.0 .42 16% .08 50% .04 1.33 69% 36% 46% +12 -1 1.23 38% 1.0 .38 11% .29 81% .24
Nov
12		 Middle Tennessee D- B- A F B- 44% 31% 25% D- C+ D- D+ D- D+ A D- B+ C- F F A+ F+ 27% 31% 42% A D B A+ A+ C D+ A C+
1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29 1.08 73% 65% 26% +7 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17
Nov
18		 Texas Arlington B- A F D- C 35% 26% 39% C C C- A+ A+ C- A+ C- A+ F F F F F 33% 28% 38% A F F F F A+ F F F
1.11 69% 25% 28% -3 -1 0.93 26% 2.0 .53 18% .55 71% .39 1.23 69% 64% 47% +18 -1 1.36 56% 1.3 .72 31% .50 83% .42
Nov
21		 Oregon St. C A F D C 31% 29% 40% F D+ B+ D C+ D- A+ A A+ B A F A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% D+ A+ F F F B- D- D- F
1.08 69% 25% 29% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 18% .63 80% .50 1.02 42% 63% 16% -14 +1 0.76 39% 1.5 .58 19% .42 83% .35
Nov
23		 Akron F B- A F D- 30% 26% 44% D- F+ D- A+ B+ F A+ F A+ F F F C- F+ 42% 8% 50% D- F+ F F F B- F B- F
0.84 62% 45% 21% -6 -1 0.88 27% 1.6 .42 26% .44 65% .29 1.39 76% 50% 36% +10 +2 1.26 40% 2.1 .84 17% .47 74% .35
Nov
24		 College of Charleston F D- C F F 47% 21% 32% B+ F F A+ F C A- B- A- D+ B+ D F F 31% 20% 49% C+ F+ B- C- C+ C C- C- C-
0.84 52% 36% 18% -11 +1 0.81 6% 2.0 .11 14% .30 72% .22 1.11 53% 40% 42% +5 -1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 17% .36 76% .27
Dec
3		 Ball St. F A+ A- F D+ 26% 23% 51% D D F+ D- F+ F+ A- C- B+ A+ B+ A B+ B- 31% 25% 44% A- B B A+ A A- C+ C- C+
0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27 0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19
Dec
6		 Western Kentucky C+ A- D A+ A 12% 33% 56% F B+ C+ D+ C D- C F F+ C A- B F F+ 45% 24% 31% C D- D- A+ B+ A F+ C+ D-
1.08 67% 35% 45% +9 -3 1.13 31% 0.8 .26 21% .40 57% .22 1.10 44% 31% 53% +1 0 1.04 38% 0.6 .24 19% .39 74% .29
Dec
13		 Notre Dame F B- F+ B- B- 28% 22% 50% C- C+ C- F D F+ D- F F D A+ F+ F F 25% 29% 45% A F+ B A- A- B- C C- C
0.87 62% 30% 35% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.8 .17 20% .24 62% .15 1.23 38% 47% 57% +13 -2 1.24 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 71% .22
Dec
16		 Belmont D+ F D A- C 24% 19% 57% C- C D- D F+ C+ A+ A A+ B B+ A+ F A 50% 13% 37% C- A- A A+ A+ C+ F D+ F
1.02 38% 30% 39% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 17% .38 83% .32 1.09 56% 14% 45% +2 +2 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 18% .40 72% .29
Dec
21		 Drake F+ F+ C+ F F 22% 36% 42% F F C- A+ B+ F+ A+ B- A+ B C D+ C- C- 35% 18% 47% D+ C- C B+ C+ A- A+ A+ A+
0.99 50% 38% 26% -7 -3 0.82 29% 1.3 .37 18% .41 73% .30 1.01 59% 44% 35% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 18% .21 45% .09
Dec
29		 Bradley D+ C- C+ D D+ 17% 47% 36% F D- D A+ C+ B+ F C- F C+ F A+ D+ C- 26% 39% 35% A+ B- C A+ A F C- F+ D
0.99 56% 40% 32% -1 -5 0.91 25% 1.3 .33 16% .24 71% .17 1.10 79% 24% 37% +1 -3 0.98 28% 0.6 .18 7% .33 81% .27
Jan
1		 Illinois St. F D- F D+ F 21% 38% 40% F F D F F+ F D+ C D+ A- C- D+ B- B- 36% 23% 42% C+ C+ A+ D A+ F+ D+ A C+
0.66 50% 17% 32% -11 -4 0.72 22% 0.6 .14 32% .27 69% .19 1.02 63% 42% 32% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.2 .18 13% .30 63% .19
Jan
4		 Northern Iowa F A+ C- F D+ 42% 26% 33% C- D+ F B F F C+ D+ C B A+ D+ F F+ 30% 21% 49% A D C A+ B A+ C+ A- B-
0.75 72% 36% 7% -8 0 0.86 7% 1.0 .07 24% .27 69% .18 0.97 46% 44% 48% +8 -1 1.16 21% 0.8 .17 25% .23 64% .15
Jan
7		 Murray St. F A+ A+ F B 41% 35% 24% D- C+ F F F F B C+ B C+ C+ F A B 40% 17% 42% C B A- F+ C+ D- F A D
0.97 76% 50% 8% +3 -2 1.04 16% 0.4 .06 21% .34 74% .25 1.11 57% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 27% 1.3 .35 13% .43 67% .29
Jan
10		 Indiana St. D D+ B A+ A- 38% 23% 39% C- B+ F A+ F F F A+ F A- B+ D A+ A+ 47% 13% 40% C+ A+ F C+ D D- D+ D+ D+
1.00 52% 46% 45% +6 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07 0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20
Jan
13		 Bradley B A B+ A+ A+ 20% 36% 44% F A D B+ C- C- A+ C+ A+ F D+ F B F+ 40% 28% 32% B- D- D+ A+ B F D- D+ D-
1.18 70% 44% 45% +12 -3 1.20 25% 1.1 .28 20% .51 74% .38 1.24 63% 59% 32% +7 -1 1.13 29% 0.8 .24 8% .37 77% .29
Jan
20		 Illinois-Chicago F F B F F 25% 11% 64% C F D F F F D- A+ C- C- F F+ A+ F+ 43% 29% 27% B D B- D- C- F D+ A+ B-
0.73 45% 40% 25% -12 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21 1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21
Jan
28		 Drake B- A+ B+ A+ A+ 23% 37% 40% F A+ F F F D+ F F F F+ F F C D 18% 22% 60% B+ D+ D+ A B- F+ F D F
1.17 83% 42% 52% +18 -3 1.33 18% 0.6 .11 16% .21 58% .13 1.23 75% 50% 33% +5 -2 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 10% .63 74% .47
Jan
31		 Northern Iowa C- B A+ F B- 17% 30% 52% F C- D- A+ C A F A+ F F+ F F B F+ 31% 16% 53% B D- F F F A A+ D- A+
0.95 63% 50% 25% -3 -3 0.91 19% 1.2 .23 14% .14 86% .12 1.22 87% 50% 31% +8 0 1.18 28% 1.7 .48 19% .08 75% .06
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Indiana St. D- D- A+ F C+ 17% 40% 43% F D+ D- D+ D- C- A- F B- F D- C+ F F 37% 15% 48% A- F F F+ F F+ A A+ A
1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21 1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09
Feb
6		 Valparaiso F+ F+ F A+ C+ 35% 25% 39% D+ C F+ F F D+ F F F B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 23% 38% 40% A A+ F F F A A F B
0.91 50% 23% 45% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.6 .13 19% .20 64% .12 1.01 55% 22% 26% -11 -3 0.73 43% 1.6 .69 20% .27 80% .22
Feb
9		 Illinois St. A+ D+ A A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% D+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ B- A+ A F+ F A F F 29% 20% 52% C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F B C- B
1.33 53% 47% 65% +20 -2 1.38 8% 2.5 .21 11% .32 84% .27 1.21 81% 27% 41% +10 -1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 11% .24 71% .17
Feb
12		 Southern Illinois D B+ A- C- B 21% 25% 55% D- B- D- F F D- F B+ F F F A+ D- F 42% 13% 45% F F F D- F C- A+ F B+
0.88 64% 46% 31% +1 -2 1.00 23% 0.6 .14 22% .08 75% .06 1.26 74% 29% 36% +7 +1 1.18 43% 1.1 .47 16% .19 82% .16
Feb
18		 Illinois-Chicago F A+ F F F 21% 19% 60% D F F A+ F D+ F F F F D- C+ F F 28% 22% 50% B F F+ B+ C A A+ F A+
0.71 80% 11% 18% -15 -1 0.70 16% 1.3 .22 22% .16 63% .10 1.30 64% 36% 60% +21 -1 1.42 41% 0.9 .38 23% .10 80% .08
Feb
21		 Murray St. D+ A D+ B+ A- 29% 25% 46% D B+ F A+ D C F A+ F D+ C+ A+ F C- 29% 10% 61% C- C- B+ C+ B+ F F+ F F
1.04 69% 36% 38% +6 -1 1.11 7% 4.0 .27 17% .10 83% .08 1.22 57% 20% 40% +3 +1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 11% .41 92% .37
Feb
25		 Belmont D A+ A F B- 36% 18% 46% B- B- F A+ D- C F F F F B- A+ F F 31% 7% 62% C+ F C A+ A F A+ F A+
0.95 78% 44% 22% 0 0 1.02 18% 1.3 .24 18% .18 60% .11 1.45 59% 25% 62% +25 +1 1.55 28% 0.9 .24 13% .15 78% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 26.1 6.9 33.1 10th
11th 53.1 13.8 66.9 11th
Total 53.1 39.9 6.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-17 39.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 39.9
2-18 53.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 53.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 48.8%