Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.8 298
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 296
Pace 67.3 221
Improvement -2.6 287

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 311 C- D D D+ D-
Defense C- 248 D+ C- C B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 353 B- 62% 86 -3.9 314
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 101 C 39% 149 +2.6 57
Three Pointers 43% 135 D+ 32% 280 -0.3 190
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.4 332 C -0.2 180
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 223
Second Chance F+ 22.7% 347 C+ 1.05 142 D 0.24 323
Turnovers D 19.2% 319
Freethrows D+ 0.28 265 C 72% 197 D+ 0.20 257
Total Offense D -5.5 311

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 103 B- 8.9% 73
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 110 B 2.8% 44
Three Pointers C+ 86% 152 B- 0.5% 80
Total C+ 58% 129 A- 3.6% 15

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 298 C- 61% 250 -1.6 120
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 105 D+ 40% 269 +1.3 294
Three Pointers 43% 109 D 37% 323 +3.3 321
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 80 D +3.6 313
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 278
Second Chance D+ 32.4% 269 C 1.03 193 C- 0.33 242
Turnovers C 17.1% 169
Freethrows B- 0.27 84 C- 73% 216 B- 0.20 96
Total Defense C- -2.4 248

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 207 C 11.0% 175
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 289 B+ 8.3% 38
Three Pointers D 89% 310 C- 0.7% 194
Total D+ 60% 269 C 6.0% 146

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 279 16.4 33
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 353 0.20 286
Improvement +0.3 #168 -3.0 #319

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 316 298 271
Conference Record 2 - 18 3 - 17 4 - 16
Conference Finish 11 11 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 93% 69% 95%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 9.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 90 - 11
Quad 33 - 103 - 22
Quad 42 - 35 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 8 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1% -18  7% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F+ -9 F A+ B- C- -2 C B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 171 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 34% -8  4% 0 - 2 D -9 D- -7 C+ D- D+ C- -2 D A C-
 Tue, Nov 18 176 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 35% -3  27% 0 - 3 D- -12 C+ +3 C- A+ C- F -15 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 160 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 23% +4  82% 1 - 3 C+ +4 C +0 C- C+ D- B +4 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 76 Akron L 59 - 97 8% -13  3% 1 - 4 F -30 F -15 F+ B+ F F -15 F+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 151 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 22% -12  2% 1 - 5 F -19 F -15 F+ F C D+ -4 D- C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 313 Ball St. W 64 - 52 67% +1  51% 2 - 5 C -0 F -12 D F+ F+ A+ +12 B A A-
 Sat, Dec 6 168 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 17% -3  43% 2 - 6 C +1 C+ +3 B+ C D- C -1 F+ B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 84 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 6% -11  1% 2 - 7 D- -14 F -10 C+ D- F+ D -5 F+ A- B-
 Tue, Dec 16 68 Belmont L 78 - 83 11% -7  0% 2 - 8 0 - 1 C +0 D+ -4 C F+ C+ B +5 A- A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 194 Drake L 65 - 66 39% -2  38% 2 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -6 F+ -10 F B+ F+ B +4 C- C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 120 @Bradley L 68 - 76 11% +2  61% 2 - 10 0 - 3 C- -2 D+ -3 D- C+ B+ C+ +1 C+ A F
 Thu, Jan 1 99 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 8% -14  9% 2 - 11 0 - 4 F -18 F -24 F F F B+ +7 C+ A+ F+
 Sun, Jan 4 90 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 15% -12  0% 2 - 12 0 - 5 D -11 F -17 D+ F F B +5 D B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 124 Murray St. L 69 - 79 24% -4  20% 2 - 13 0 - 6 D -10 F -11 C+ F F C+ +1 B C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 211 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 22% +0  46% 3 - 13 1 - 6 C+ +3 D -5 B+ F F A- +8 A+ D- D-
 Tue, Jan 13 120 Bradley L 90 - 94 OT 23% +3  55% 3 - 14 1 - 7 C- -4 B +7 A C- C- F -11 D- B F
 Tue, Jan 20 106 @Illinois-Chicago L 49 - 76 9% -13  11% 3 - 15 1 - 8 F -20 F -19 F+ F F C- -2 D- C- F
 Wed, Jan 28 194 @Drake L 78 - 82 20% +6  88% 3 - 16 1 - 9 C- -3 B- +5 A+ F D+ F+ -9 D+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 90 @Northern Iowa L 55 - 71 7% -16  5% 3 - 17 1 - 10 D+ -7 C- -1 C C A- F+ -9 D- F A
 Tue, Feb 3 211 Indiana St. L 63 - 84 42% -15  1% 3 - 18 1 - 11 F -27 D- -8 D+ D- C- F -21 F F F+
 Fri, Feb 6 161 @Valparaiso L 63 - 70 OT 16% -1  25% 3 - 19 1 - 12 C- -4 F+ -9 C F D+ B +5 A+ F A
 Mon, Feb 9 99 Illinois St. W 88 - 80 17% +9  82% 4 - 19 2 - 12 B +10 A+ +20 A+ D+ A+ F+ -9 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 128 @Southern Illinois L 60 - 86 12% -15  8% 4 - 20 2 - 13 F -21 D- -6 C+ F D- F -15 F F C
 Wed, Feb 18 106 Illinois-Chicago L 46 - 84 20% -16  0% 4 - 21 2 - 14 F -37 F -23 F F C- F -17 F C A
 Sat, Feb 21 124 @Murray St. L 72 - 86 10%
 Wed, Feb 25 68 @Belmont L 67 - 86 4%
 Sat, Feb 28 161 Valparaiso L 66 - 71 34%
 Sun, Mar 1 128 Southern Illinois L 65 - 72 25%
Totals 5 - 24 3 - 17 -8 D -5 C+ C D- C- -2 D+ C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D B- C D+ C 30% 44% 43% D- C- F+ C+ D D D+ C D+ C- C- D+ D D 34% 23% 43% B- D+ D+ C C- C B- C- B-
1.01 62% 39% 32% 0 -1 0.99 23% 1.1 .24 19% .28 72% .20 1.12 61% 40% 37% +4 -1 1.08 32% 1.0 .33 17% .27 73% .20
Nov
4		 Purdue F+ C- F F F 17% 33% 50% D- F A+ D+ A+ B- F F F C- D+ B+ F C- 27% 23% 50% B- C C A B+ C- C F D+
0.83 56% 24% 15% -19 -3 0.58 42% 1.0 .42 16% .08 50% .04 1.33 69% 36% 46% +12 -1 1.23 38% 1.0 .38 11% .29 81% .24
Nov
12		 Middle Tennessee D- B- A F B- 44% 31% 25% D- C+ F+ D+ D- D+ A D- B+ C- F F A+ D- 27% 31% 42% A D B- A+ A C- D+ A C
1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29 1.08 73% 65% 26% +7 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17
Nov
18		 Texas Arlington C+ A- F D- C- 35% 26% 39% C C- C- A+ A+ C- A+ C- A+ F F F F F 33% 28% 38% A F F F F A+ F F F
1.11 69% 25% 28% -3 -1 0.93 26% 2.0 .53 18% .55 71% .39 1.23 69% 64% 47% +18 -1 1.36 56% 1.3 .72 31% .50 83% .42
Nov
21		 Oregon St. C A F D C 31% 29% 40% F C- B D C+ D- A+ A- A+ B A F A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% D+ A+ F F F B- D- D- F+
1.08 69% 25% 29% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 18% .63 80% .50 1.02 42% 63% 16% -14 +1 0.76 39% 1.5 .58 19% .42 83% .35
Nov
23		 Akron F B- A F D- 30% 26% 44% D- F+ D A+ B+ F A+ F A+ F F F C- F+ 42% 8% 50% D- F+ F F F B- F B- F
0.84 62% 45% 21% -6 -1 0.88 27% 1.6 .42 26% .44 65% .29 1.39 76% 50% 36% +10 +2 1.26 40% 2.1 .84 17% .47 74% .35
Nov
24		 College of Charleston F D- C F F 47% 21% 32% B+ F+ F A+ F C A- B- A- D+ B+ D F F+ 31% 20% 49% C D- B- D+ C+ C C- C- C-
0.84 52% 36% 18% -11 +1 0.81 6% 2.0 .11 14% .30 72% .22 1.11 53% 40% 42% +5 -1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 17% .36 76% .27
Dec
3		 Ball St. F A+ A- F D 26% 23% 51% D D F+ D- F+ F+ A- C- B+ A+ B+ A B+ B- 31% 25% 44% B+ B B A+ A A- B- C- C+
0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27 0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19
Dec
6		 Western Kentucky C+ A- D A+ A 12% 33% 56% F B+ C+ D+ C D- C F F+ C A- B+ F F 45% 24% 31% C F+ D- A+ B+ A F C F+
1.08 67% 35% 45% +9 -3 1.13 31% 0.8 .26 21% .40 57% .22 1.10 44% 31% 53% +1 0 1.04 38% 0.6 .24 19% .39 74% .29
Dec
13		 Notre Dame F B- F+ B- B- 28% 22% 50% C- C+ C- F D- F+ D F F+ D A+ F+ F F 25% 29% 45% A F+ B A- A- B- C C C
0.87 62% 30% 35% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.8 .17 20% .24 62% .15 1.23 38% 47% 57% +13 -2 1.24 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 71% .22
Dec
16		 Belmont D+ F D B+ C 24% 19% 57% C- C F+ D F+ C+ A+ A A+ B B+ A+ F A 50% 13% 37% C- A- A A+ A+ C F D F
1.02 38% 30% 39% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 17% .38 83% .32 1.09 56% 14% 45% +2 +2 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 18% .40 72% .29
Dec
21		 Drake F+ F+ C+ F F 22% 36% 42% F F C- A+ B+ F+ A+ B- A+ B C D+ C- C- 35% 18% 47% D+ C- C- B C+ A- A+ A+ A+
0.99 50% 38% 26% -7 -3 0.82 29% 1.3 .37 18% .41 73% .30 1.01 59% 44% 35% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 18% .21 45% .09
Dec
29		 Bradley D+ C- C+ D+ C- 17% 47% 36% F D- D- A+ C+ B+ F C- F C+ F A+ D+ C- 26% 39% 35% A+ C+ C- A+ A F C- F+ D+
0.99 56% 40% 32% -1 -5 0.91 25% 1.3 .33 16% .24 71% .17 1.10 79% 24% 37% +1 -3 0.98 28% 0.6 .18 7% .33 81% .27
Jan
1		 Illinois St. F D- F D+ F 21% 38% 40% F F D F F F D+ C D+ B+ C- D+ B- C+ 36% 23% 42% C+ C+ A+ D A+ F+ C- A C+
0.66 50% 17% 32% -11 -3 0.72 22% 0.6 .14 32% .27 69% .19 1.02 63% 42% 32% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.2 .18 13% .30 63% .19
Jan
4		 Northern Iowa F A+ C- F D+ 42% 26% 33% C- D+ F B F F C D+ C- B A+ D+ F F+ 30% 21% 49% A D C A+ B A+ C+ A- B-
0.75 72% 36% 7% -8 0 0.86 7% 1.0 .07 24% .27 69% .18 0.97 46% 44% 48% +8 -1 1.16 21% 0.8 .17 25% .23 64% .15
Jan
7		 Murray St. F A+ A+ F B 41% 35% 24% D- C+ F F F F B C+ B C+ C+ F A B 40% 17% 42% C- B A- F+ C+ D- F A D
0.97 76% 50% 8% +3 -2 1.04 16% 0.4 .06 21% .34 74% .25 1.11 57% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 27% 1.3 .35 13% .43 67% .29
Jan
10		 Indiana St. D D+ B- A+ A- 38% 23% 39% C- B+ F A+ F F F A+ F A- B+ D+ A+ A+ 47% 13% 40% C+ A+ F C+ D- D- C- D+ D+
1.00 52% 46% 45% +7 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07 0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20
Jan
13		 Bradley B A B+ A+ A+ 20% 36% 44% F+ A D- B+ C- C- A+ C+ A+ F D+ F B F+ 40% 28% 32% C+ D- D+ A+ B F D- D+ D-
1.18 70% 44% 45% +12 -3 1.20 25% 1.1 .28 20% .51 74% .38 1.24 63% 59% 32% +7 -1 1.13 29% 0.8 .24 8% .37 77% .29
Jan
20		 Illinois-Chicago F F B F F 25% 11% 64% C F+ D F F F D- A C- C- F F+ A+ F+ 43% 29% 27% B D- B- F+ C- F D+ A+ B-
0.73 45% 40% 25% -11 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21 1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21
Jan
28		 Drake B- A+ B+ A+ A+ 23% 37% 40% F A+ F F F D+ F F F F+ F F C D- 18% 22% 60% B+ D+ D+ A B- F+ F D F
1.17 83% 42% 52% +18 -3 1.33 18% 0.6 .11 16% .21 58% .13 1.23 75% 50% 33% +5 -2 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 10% .63 74% .47
Jan
31		 Northern Iowa C- B A+ F B- 17% 30% 52% F C D A+ C A- F A+ F F+ F F B F 31% 16% 53% B D- F F F A A+ D- A+
0.95 63% 50% 25% -3 -3 0.91 19% 1.2 .23 14% .14 86% .12 1.22 87% 50% 31% +8 0 1.18 28% 1.7 .48 19% .08 75% .06
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Indiana St. D- D- A+ F C 17% 40% 43% F D+ F+ D+ D- C- A- F+ B- F D- B- F F 37% 15% 48% A- F F F+ F F+ A A+ A+
1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21 1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09
Feb
6		 Valparaiso F+ F+ F A+ C+ 35% 25% 39% D+ C F+ F F D+ F F F B C+ A+ A A+ 23% 38% 40% A A+ F F F A A F B-
0.91 50% 23% 45% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.6 .13 19% .20 64% .12 1.01 55% 22% 26% -11 -3 0.73 43% 1.6 .69 20% .27 80% .22
Feb
9		 Illinois St. A+ D+ A A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% D+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ B- A+ A F+ F A F F 29% 20% 52% C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ C- B
1.33 53% 47% 65% +20 -2 1.38 8% 2.5 .21 11% .32 84% .27 1.21 81% 27% 41% +10 -1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 11% .24 71% .17
Feb
12		 Southern Illinois D- B A- C- B 21% 25% 55% F+ C+ D F F D- F B+ F F F A+ D- F 42% 13% 45% F F F D- F C A+ F B+
0.88 64% 46% 31% +1 -2 1.00 23% 0.6 .14 22% .08 75% .06 1.26 74% 29% 36% +7 +1 1.18 43% 1.1 .47 16% .19 82% .16
Feb
18		 Illinois-Chicago F A+ F F F 21% 19% 60% D F F A+ F C- F F F F D- C+ F F 28% 22% 50% B F D- B C A A+ F A+
0.71 80% 11% 18% -15 -1 0.70 16% 1.3 .22 22% .16 63% .10 1.30 64% 36% 60% +21 -1 1.42 41% 0.9 .38 23% .10 80% .08



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 18.8 11.5 1.6 0.0 32.0 10th
11th 44.2 22.1 1.7 0.0 68.0 11th
Total 44.2 40.9 13.2 1.7 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-16 13.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.2
3-17 40.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 40.9
2-18 44.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 44.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 38.4%