Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#252
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#294
Pace68.4#218
Improvement+2.2#60

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#296
First Shot-3.3#265
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#276
Layup/Dunks-2.7#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#293
Freethrows+1.3#105
Improvement-0.7#232

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#179
First Shot-1.5#220
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#105
Layups/Dunks+5.3#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#320
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement+3.0#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.5% 7.6% 1.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 48.4% 30.1% 51.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 12.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 71 - 10
Quad 33 - 104 - 20
Quad 43 - 47 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 5 @Purdue L 51-82 1%     0 - 1 -6.2 -5.5 -4.9
  Wed, Nov 12 158 Middle Tennessee L 72-77 41%     0 - 2 -7.8 -2.7 -5.0
  Tue, Nov 18 167 Texas Arlington L 76-84 44%     0 - 3 -11.6 +6.2 -18.0
  Fri, Nov 21 154 Oregon St. W 73-69 29%     1 - 3 +4.4 +2.7 +1.8
  Sun, Nov 23 59 Akron L 59-97 10%     1 - 4 -29.1 -14.6 -14.6
  Mon, Nov 24 169 College of Charleston L 59-78 33%     1 - 5 -19.6 -15.0 -4.6
  Wed, Dec 3 306 Ball St. W 64-52 72%     2 - 5 +0.8 -10.2 +11.5
  Sat, Dec 6 145 @Western Kentucky L 79-80 19%     2 - 6 +3.1 +5.2 -2.1
  Sat, Dec 13 64 @Notre Dame L 58-82 7%     2 - 7 -12.6 -6.0 -7.8
  Tue, Dec 16 69 Belmont L 78-83 17%     2 - 8 0 - 1 +0.0 +0.4 +0.1
  Sun, Dec 21 143 Drake L 65-66 37%     2 - 9 0 - 2 -2.8 -4.9 +2.0
  Mon, Dec 29 108 @Bradley L 63-75 13%    
  Thu, Jan 1 82 @Illinois St. L 63-78 8%    
  Sun, Jan 4 93 Northern Iowa L 58-66 22%    
  Wed, Jan 7 100 Murray St. L 74-82 24%    
  Sat, Jan 10 201 @Indiana St. L 70-76 30%    
  Tue, Jan 13 108 Bradley L 66-72 29%    
  Tue, Jan 20 200 @Illinois-Chicago L 69-75 30%    
  Sun, Jan 25 130 Southern Illinois L 70-74 35%    
  Wed, Jan 28 143 @Drake L 64-73 19%    
  Sat, Jan 31 93 @Northern Iowa L 55-69 10%    
  Tue, Feb 3 201 Indiana St. W 73-72 51%    
  Fri, Feb 6 219 @Valparaiso L 67-71 34%    
  Mon, Feb 9 82 Illinois St. L 66-75 20%    
  Thu, Feb 12 130 @Southern Illinois L 67-77 18%    
  Wed, Feb 18 200 Illinois-Chicago W 72-71 51%    
  Sat, Feb 21 100 @Murray St. L 71-85 11%    
  Wed, Feb 25 69 @Belmont L 67-83 7%    
  Sat, Feb 28 219 Valparaiso W 70-68 56%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 6.0 6.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 18.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.7 8.6 7.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 25.3 10th
11th 1.3 5.2 9.6 10.8 6.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 35.4 11th
Total 1.3 5.2 10.6 15.7 17.2 16.4 13.2 9.3 5.7 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 3.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.1% 10.3% 10.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 0.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-10 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.5
9-11 2.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.9
8-12 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
7-13 9.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.3
6-14 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-15 16.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.4
4-16 17.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.1
3-17 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.7
2-18 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.6
1-19 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
0-20 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%