College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +0.8 146
Results Rating +2.3 126
Consistency 0.12 48
Pace 69.7 142
Improvement +4.1 42

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 192 C- C C B C-
Defense C+ 125 B- C+ D- A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 217 B 65% 48 +1.8 112
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 125 D 33% 329 -0.3 192
Three Pointers 40% 209 F+ 29% 346 -3.6 304
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 234 C- -1.7 235
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 240
Second Chance C- 29.4% 210 B- 1.10 86 C 0.32 151
Opponents' Steals C- 10.2% 256
Other Turnovers B- 6.4% 76
Turnovers C 16.6% 167
Freethrows B 0.35 53 B- 75% 110 B 0.26 47
Total Offense C -0.9 192

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 93 B- 9.0% 72
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 216 D+ 6.5% 277
Three Pointers D+ 81% 261 B 0.3% 54
Total C 55% 188 B- 5.0% 104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 333 D+ 61% 275 -2.9 84
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 89 B- 35% 74 +0.3 214
Three Pointers 45% 62 B 32% 74 +0.5 205
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 56 C+ -1.3 129
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 113
Second Chance C 30.4% 184 B- 0.96 72 C+ 0.29 119
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.0% 289
Other Turnovers D- 6.0% 334
Turnovers D- 14.1% 332
Freethrows A- 0.23 12 B- 71% 80 A- 0.16 11
Total Defense C+ +1.7 125

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 222 C 11.7% 144
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 217 A- 9.1% 25
Three Pointers D+ 86% 264 B- 1.3% 87
Total C- 58% 237 C+ 6.4% 115

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 170 17.2 154
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 165 0.19 233
Consistency 0.11 107 0.14 294
Improvement -1.3 255 +5.5 9

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 162 147 131
Results Rating Rank 147 131 110
Conference Record 13 - 5 13 - 5 14 - 4
Conference Finish 2 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13% 16% 12%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 10% 35% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round13% 16% 12%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Away) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 414 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 111 @Liberty L 75 - 90 29% -8  4% 0 - 1 D -9 B+ +8 B- A+ D+ F -19 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 120 Florida Atlantic L 77 - 94 42% -15  0% 0 - 2 D- -14 B +7 C D B+ F -21 C- F F
 Fri, Nov 14 357 South Carolina St. W 88 - 61 96% +14  86% 1 - 2 B- +8 B+ +8 C B- A+ C+ +1 B- B D-
 Mon, Nov 17 190 Drake L 62 - 71 71% -5  21% 1 - 3 D- -14 F -16 F D D+ B- +2 C B+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 188 Massachusetts W 69 - 65 60% -1  37% 2 - 3 C+ +2 D -6 F A+ A- A- +8 C- C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 23 87 Yale L 63 - 74 28% -9  0% 2 - 4 C- -4 F+ -9 F+ F C+ B +4 C- A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 299 Evansville W 78 - 59 80% +12  93% 3 - 4 B +11 C- -0 C C- C- A+ +11 A A F
 Sun, Nov 30 62 Belmont L 73 - 96 31% -19  1% 3 - 5 F+ -17 D+ -3 F B A+ F -14 F A F
 Wed, Dec 10 54 @South Florida L 75 - 81 13% -2  27% 3 - 6 B- +7 B +7 D B C+ C -0 C+ C+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 171 Charlotte W 74 - 67 67% +3  74% 4 - 6 C+ +3 D -4 B C+ D- A- +8 A- A D
 Wed, Dec 17 349 The Citadel W 82 - 78 94% -2  42% 5 - 6 D- -12 D+ -4 C F C F+ -9 D- C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 191 @Northern Kentucky W 85 - 74 49% +4  86% 6 - 6 B+ +12 B +7 A C+ C- B +5 C B A+
 Mon, Dec 29 214 Drexel W 72 - 63 74% -1  37% 7 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +3 B- +5 A- A D C -1 C+ C+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 225 @Elon W 85 - 81 55% +7  89% 8 - 6 2 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +2 D- B C- C+ +1 B B- F
 Mon, Jan 5 139 William & Mary W 88 - 79 59% +6  84% 9 - 6 3 - 0 B- +7 C- -2 B F F A- +8 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 266 Hampton W 74 - 70 82% +5  95% 10 - 6 4 - 0 D+ -5 B- +4 C+ B- A- F+ -9 B- F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 175 @Towson L 52 - 61 45% -9  0% 10 - 7 4 - 1 D+ -7 F -17 F C- F A +10 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 219 @Stony Brook L 106 - 112 2OT 54% -3  17% 10 - 8 4 - 2 D+ -6 A- +11 C- A A F -16 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 196 Campbell W 87 - 83 72% +3  54% 11 - 8 5 - 2 C -1 B- +5 B+ C+ D+ D -6 D F C
 Sat, Jan 24 225 Elon W 80 - 70 76% +10  98% 12 - 8 6 - 2 C+ +3 D+ -4 C D+ F A- +7 A C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 29 104 @Hofstra W 66 - 64 27% -3  18% 13 - 8 7 - 2 B +9 D -5 F B+ B- A+ +14 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 31 288 @Northeastern W 89 - 84 69% -2  21% 14 - 8 8 - 2 C +1 A- +11 C- C+ A+ F -10 F C F
 Thu, Feb 5 276 N.C. A&T W 78 - 62 83% +5  68% 15 - 8 9 - 2 B- +7 D -4 B- D F A +11 B B+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 107 UNC Wilmington L 64 - 76 49% -9  0% 15 - 9 9 - 3 D -11 F+ -9 D C F C- -2 B D+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 104 Hofstra L 62 - 66 48% -4  17% 15 - 10 9 - 4 C- -3 F -14 F+ F+ D+ A +11 A A+ C-
 Sun, Feb 15 196 @Campbell W 62 - 57 50% +2  66% 16 - 10 10 - 4 B- +6 D -5 F A+ F+ A+ +11 A A+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 276 @N.C. A&T W 74 - 61 66% +11  96% 17 - 10 11 - 4 B +10 B- +4 B- F+ C+ A- +7 B D+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 187 Monmouth W 74 - 63 70% +4  82% 18 - 10 12 - 4 B- +6 C +1 D- B A+ B+ +6 C- A+ B-
 Thu, Feb 26 266 @Hampton W 85 - 71 64% +12  99% 19 - 10 13 - 4 B +11 A +12 C+ A+ A- C -1 D+ C+ F+
 Sun, Mar 1 107 @UNC Wilmington L 68 - 74 28%
Totals 19 - 11 13 - 5 +1 C -1 A C- C- C+ +2 F+ B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B D F+ C- 37% 42% 40% C- C- C- B- C C B B- B C+ D+ B- B C+ 32% 23% 45% B B- C B- C+ D- A- B- A-
1.07 65% 33% 29% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 75% .26 1.06 61% 35% 32% -1 -1 0.98 30% 1.0 .29 14% .23 71% .24
Nov
7		 Liberty B+ D A A- B- 35% 22% 43% C- B- B A+ A+ D+ A+ F B+ F C- F F F+ 44% 8% 48% B- D- F F F F D+ D+ D
1.20 50% 50% 40% +4 0 1.09 36% 1.5 .55 19% .34 65% .22 1.44 64% 50% 46% +12 +2 1.30 32% 1.3 .42 8% .30 71% .21
Nov
8		 Florida Atlantic B C- D- B C 43% 20% 37% C- C A F D B+ A+ A+ A+ F D F B+ C- 35% 15% 50% C- C- F F F F F+ F+ F
1.14 55% 30% 37% -2 0 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 13% .41 88% .36 1.39 63% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.07 46% 1.3 .62 10% .36 77% .28
Nov
14		 South Carolina St. B+ A+ F F C 48% 14% 38% C- C A F+ B- A+ A+ D- A- C+ F+ A+ F C- 17% 52% 31% A+ B- F A+ B D- F A+ C-
1.31 92% 29% 16% +4 +2 1.14 47% 1.1 .50 10% .51 68% .35 0.91 63% 20% 47% -3 -6 0.85 38% 0.6 .22 18% .49 44% .22
Nov
17		 Drake F A+ F F F+ 13% 44% 42% F F B F D D+ B- F C B- D A+ D+ C 26% 21% 53% C+ C C- A+ B+ A B+ A+ A
0.90 100% 26% 27% -4 -5 0.85 36% 0.6 .20 16% .33 63% .21 1.03 64% 27% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 0.8 .22 19% .25 57% .14
Nov
21		 Massachusetts D B+ B F F 40% 15% 45% C+ F F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A- B+ F B+ C- 35% 22% 43% C+ C- C B C+ B+ A A+ A+
1.02 68% 43% 14% -8 +1 0.87 11% 4.3 .48 13% .49 83% .41 0.96 50% 70% 30% +2 0 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 22% .25 46% .11
Nov
23		 Yale F+ C+ F F F 42% 17% 42% B F+ C F F C+ A+ D- A+ B B C- F D+ 39% 29% 33% A- C- B+ A+ A+ D C+ A+ A-
0.97 60% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 29% 0.5 .14 14% .43 67% .29 1.14 53% 43% 50% +7 -1 1.14 29% 0.9 .26 12% .32 61% .19
Nov
24		 Evansville C- D C+ A C 31% 20% 49% C C D B C- C- A B- A A+ A- C+ A+ A+ 47% 21% 32% F A A+ F A F D+ C D+
1.11 53% 40% 42% +5 -1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 17% .36 76% .27 0.84 52% 36% 18% -11 +1 0.81 6% 2.0 .11 14% .30 72% .22
Nov
30		 Belmont D+ F F F F 13% 17% 69% D F C+ A- B A+ A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 32% 20% 48% A F C A+ A F C+ A+ B+
1.03 43% 22% 25% -14 -1 0.71 33% 1.2 .39 11% .48 73% .35 1.36 83% 55% 48% +22 0 1.45 28% 0.9 .24 8% .29 58% .17
Dec
10		 South Florida B F+ F C- F+ 42% 12% 46% A D A D+ B C+ A+ A+ A+ C D+ F A+ B- 44% 8% 48% C C+ F A C+ D C- B+ C+
1.09 45% 17% 33% -8 +1 0.88 40% 0.9 .35 19% .45 80% .36 1.18 61% 50% 24% -5 +2 0.96 46% 1.0 .43 13% .38 70% .27
Dec
14		 Charlotte D A A D- B 40% 26% 34% C- B D A+ C+ D- D+ F D- A- F C- A+ A- 28% 16% 56% B+ A- A- A+ A D A F B
1.09 70% 46% 29% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.4 .35 18% .29 63% .18 0.98 79% 38% 25% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.7 .18 16% .25 86% .21
Dec
17		 The Citadel D+ A+ C+ F+ C 33% 12% 55% C- C F A+ F C A+ A- A+ F+ B B+ F F+ 27% 17% 56% C+ D- C- C+ C- D+ A+ A- A
1.14 86% 40% 30% +7 +1 1.17 10% 1.3 .14 15% .67 76% .51 1.08 50% 30% 39% +1 0 1.03 29% 0.9 .26 17% .17 60% .10
Dec
21		 Northern Kentucky B C+ A+ C- A 43% 17% 39% C+ A C B C+ C- A+ C- A+ B B- D- B- C 35% 14% 51% C C F+ A+ B A+ C+ F D-
1.15 60% 88% 33% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 20% .49 69% .34 1.00 56% 43% 31% -3 +1 0.98 36% 0.7 .26 23% .28 88% .25
Dec
29		 Drexel B- A+ C F+ A 33% 28% 39% D A- B- A+ A D C F F+ C C A+ F C- 20% 25% 55% A C+ C B C+ D+ D C- D
1.15 87% 38% 28% +6 -1 1.11 33% 1.4 .47 18% .31 56% .17 1.01 56% 18% 42% +1 -2 1.00 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 69% .21
Dec
31		 Elon C+ F A+ C F+ 43% 16% 41% B D- C A+ B C- A+ A+ A+ C+ C- F A+ B 45% 10% 45% C B A+ F B- F C+ A- B-
1.15 43% 50% 35% -4 +1 0.96 33% 1.4 .45 16% .47 90% .42 1.10 59% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 8% .30 65% .19
Jan
5		 William & Mary C- A+ F A- A- 25% 26% 49% F B D- F F F A+ A A+ A- F A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% A+ A+ C D C- F C+ D- C
1.07 92% 21% 38% +7 -2 1.13 24% 0.8 .18 23% .46 79% .36 0.96 85% 5% 22% -14 -3 0.69 25% 1.2 .31 7% .33 80% .26
Jan
10		 Hampton B- A+ B- F+ B- 32% 24% 44% D- C+ F A+ B- A- A+ B+ A+ F+ D D- A+ C 25% 37% 37% A B- F B- F+ F A C+ A
1.18 85% 40% 28% +5 -1 1.10 17% 2.0 .35 13% .55 73% .40 1.11 62% 42% 21% -5 -3 0.86 45% 0.9 .39 13% .25 71% .18
Jan
15		 Towson F F F F+ F 36% 14% 50% B- F B+ F C- F F D+ F A A+ C A+ A+ 29% 25% 46% C- A+ B+ F D- C- C- F F
0.77 39% 14% 28% -15 +1 0.74 34% 0.7 .25 22% .17 67% .11 0.90 40% 38% 17% -17 -1 0.65 30% 1.3 .38 16% .30 88% .26
Jan
17		 Stony Brook A- D+ F A C- 46% 19% 35% B- C- D- A+ A A A+ A+ A+ F D F F+ F 35% 12% 53% D+ F A F C+ F F A F
1.23 55% 25% 41% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.6 .43 12% .47 83% .39 1.30 61% 75% 40% +10 +1 1.24 20% 1.2 .24 9% .40 65% .26
Jan
22		 Campbell B- A+ B A- A 44% 35% 21% F+ B+ B- C- C+ D+ A+ A- A+ D D- B- F F 20% 30% 50% A+ D C F F C A+ B+ A+
1.20 76% 41% 40% +11 -2 1.21 35% 1.1 .38 19% .49 79% .39 1.14 64% 31% 41% +4 -2 1.06 34% 1.8 .60 18% .20 67% .13
Jan
24		 Elon D+ A+ F F C+ 30% 28% 42% D- C B- F D+ F A+ F A A- F+ F A+ A 27% 23% 50% A+ A B+ D C+ C+ C C- C
1.11 100% 21% 29% +5 -2 1.08 38% 0.9 .34 22% .46 62% .29 0.97 67% 54% 18% -6 -1 0.88 28% 1.1 .31 17% .30 72% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Hofstra D F B F F 47% 24% 29% B F A- C+ B+ B- A- F C A+ A A+ A A+ 32% 23% 45% C- A+ F A C D+ A+ A+ A+
0.96 42% 42% 13% -16 0 0.71 38% 1.1 .40 13% .37 59% .22 0.94 44% 23% 28% -12 -1 0.77 41% 0.9 .35 15% .09 40% .03
Jan
31		 Northeastern A- B A+ F D 58% 13% 28% A- C- D A C+ A+ B+ B A- F F C+ F F 40% 23% 37% B F F A+ C F A+ A+ A+
1.29 68% 57% 20% +2 +2 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 7% .41 77% .31 1.22 71% 36% 41% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.8 .28 7% .08 40% .03
Feb
5		 N.C. A&T D A+ C+ F B 35% 31% 33% F+ B- D C- D F F+ B- D A D A+ C+ B 23% 30% 47% B+ B C- A+ B+ A+ C+ F C-
1.10 84% 41% 28% +7 -2 1.13 23% 1.0 .23 20% .25 71% .18 0.87 64% 21% 32% -5 -2 0.87 31% 0.8 .26 25% .34 83% .28
Feb
9		 UNC Wilmington F+ C- A- F D+ 27% 33% 40% D- D D A C F A+ A A+ C- F A+ C- B- 23% 37% 40% A+ B B F D+ F A C- A
0.94 58% 47% 22% -4 -2 0.89 21% 1.3 .27 19% .42 83% .35 1.12 77% 14% 35% -4 -3 0.88 30% 1.3 .40 7% .27 71% .19
Feb
12		 Hofstra F F F C- F+ 23% 23% 54% D+ F+ F B F+ D+ C+ A+ A- A D B A+ A 22% 25% 53% B A B- A+ A+ C- F B- F
0.88 42% 17% 32% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.1 .20 16% .32 84% .27 0.94 64% 31% 26% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.5 .14 16% .44 73% .32
Feb
15		 Campbell D B+ F D- F 41% 30% 28% D F C+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ F A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 54% 15% 31% C- A F A+ A+ F A+ F A+
1.02 68% 7% 31% -6 -1 0.87 32% 1.7 .55 21% .17 88% .15 0.94 64% 0% 13% -12 +2 0.81 43% 0.3 .14 12% .19 90% .17
Feb
19		 N.C. A&T B- A+ F A+ B+ 31% 29% 40% F+ B- B F F+ C+ D- B- D A- A- C+ B+ A- 37% 17% 46% F B B- F D+ C A- A A
1.17 81% 20% 43% +7 -2 1.13 32% 0.6 .19 13% .25 71% .18 0.96 47% 38% 29% -8 0 0.87 28% 1.3 .36 19% .29 67% .19
Feb
21		 Monmouth C C+ F+ F F+ 53% 20% 27% B- D- F+ A+ B A+ A D B+ B+ C+ F C+ D+ 25% 33% 41% A C- A+ A- A+ B- A+ D A+
1.10 59% 30% 21% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.6 .38 12% .37 68% .25 0.94 54% 47% 33% +2 -3 1.00 21% 0.9 .18 19% .17 78% .13
Feb
26		 Hampton A A- F A+ C+ 54% 26% 20% C C+ A A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A C D+ B+ C+ D+ 30% 20% 50% D+ D+ A+ F C+ F+ C+ F+ C-
1.24 72% 8% 44% +3 0 1.09 39% 1.3 .52 13% .49 69% .34 1.04 60% 30% 32% -3 -1 0.96 20% 1.4 .29 15% .33 79% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 10.0 10.0 1st
2nd 71.6 18.5 90.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 71.6 28.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 35.1% 10.0    10.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 10.0% 10.0 10.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 28.4% 16.0% 16.0% 13.2 0.3 2.9 1.3 0.0 23.9
13-5 71.6% 12.4% 12.4% 13.7 0.1 3.2 4.7 0.8 62.7
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 13.5 86.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 100.0% 13.2 6.2 64.3 29.3 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.6%
Lose Out 28.1%