College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.1 159
Expected Predictive Rating +1.6 137
Pace 70.2 132
Improvement +2.1 102

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 210 C- C C B+ C-
Defense C+ 131 B- C+ D- A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 232 B 64% 57 +1.2 132
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 139 D+ 35% 288 +0.0 181
Three Pointers 41% 189 F+ 29% 350 -3.4 301
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 239 C- -1.8 238
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 244
Second Chance C- 29.0% 223 B- 1.09 92 C 0.32 166
Turnovers C 17.1% 190
Freethrows B 0.35 45 B- 75% 91 B+ 0.26 36
Total Offense C- -1.6 210

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 333 D+ 62% 283 -2.8 88
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 74 B 34% 51 +0.3 214
Three Pointers 45% 71 B 31% 71 +0.1 180
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 46 C+ -1.5 119
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 103
Second Chance C- 31.2% 216 B 0.93 54 C+ 0.29 118
Turnovers D- 13.7% 337
Freethrows A- 0.23 13 B- 70% 80 A- 0.16 15
Total Defense C+ +1.4 131

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 147 17.3 181
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 166 0.19 230
Improvement -3.1 #324 +5.2 #12

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 12% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 11% 15% 4%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round11% 12% 9%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Away) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 57 - 11
Quad 412 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 92 @Liberty L 75 - 90 21% -8  4% 0 - 1 D+ -7 A- +10 B- A+ D+ F -18 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 116 Florida Atlantic L 77 - 94 38% -15  0% 0 - 2 D- -14 B +6 C D B+ F -21 C- F F
 Fri, Nov 14 357 South Carolina St. W 88 - 61 94% +14  86% 1 - 2 B +9 B+ +9 C+ C+ A+ C+ +1 B- B+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 189 Drake L 62 - 71 68% -5  21% 1 - 3 D- -14 F -17 F D- D+ B- +3 C+ B+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 179 Massachusetts W 69 - 65 54% -1  37% 2 - 3 C+ +3 D -6 F A+ A- A- +9 C- C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 23 84 Yale L 63 - 74 25% -9  0% 2 - 4 C- -4 F+ -9 F+ F C+ B- +4 C A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 278 Evansville W 78 - 59 74% +12  93% 3 - 4 B+ +12 C +0 C+ D+ C A +12 A A F
 Sun, Nov 30 70 Belmont L 73 - 96 31% -19  1% 3 - 5 F -18 D+ -3 F B A+ F -14 F A F
 Wed, Dec 10 61 @South Florida L 75 - 81 14% -2  27% 3 - 6 B- +6 B +6 D B- C C -0 B- C+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 184 Charlotte W 74 - 67 67% +3  74% 4 - 6 C+ +2 D -5 B- C D- B+ +7 A- A D
 Wed, Dec 17 347 The Citadel W 82 - 78 92% -2  42% 5 - 6 D- -12 D+ -4 C F C- D- -8 D- C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 203 @Northern Kentucky W 85 - 74 48% +4  86% 6 - 6 B+ +11 B +5 A- C+ C- B +5 C B A+
 Mon, Dec 29 227 Drexel W 72 - 63 74% -1  37% 7 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 B+ A D+ C -1 C+ C+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 207 @Elon W 85 - 81 48% +7  89% 8 - 6 2 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +2 D- B+ C- C+ +2 B B- F
 Mon, Jan 5 133 William & Mary W 88 - 79 55% +6  84% 9 - 6 3 - 0 B- +8 C- -2 B F F A- +9 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 248 Hampton W 74 - 70 77% +5  95% 10 - 6 4 - 0 C- -4 B- +5 C+ B- A- D- -8 B- D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 166 @Towson L 52 - 61 40% -9  0% 10 - 7 4 - 1 D+ -6 F -18 F C- F A +11 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 217 @Stony Brook L 106 - 112 2OT 50% -3  17% 10 - 8 4 - 2 D+ -6 A +11 C A A- F -16 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 198 Campbell W 87 - 83 69% +3  54% 11 - 8 5 - 2 C -1 B- +4 B+ C+ D+ D -5 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 24 207 Elon W 80 - 70 71% +10  98% 12 - 8 6 - 2 C+ +4 D+ -4 C C- F B+ +8 A+ C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 29 113 @Hofstra W 66 - 64 27% -3  18% 13 - 8 7 - 2 B +8 D -5 F B+ B- A+ +14 A+ C D
 Sat, Jan 31 284 @Northeastern W 89 - 84 65% -2  21% 14 - 8 8 - 2 C +1 A- +11 C- C A+ F+ -10 F+ C F
 Thu, Feb 5 285 N.C. A&T W 78 - 62 82% +5  68% 15 - 8 9 - 2 B- +6 D+ -4 B- D+ F A- +9 B- B A+
 Mon, Feb 9 110 UNC Wilmington L 64 - 76 48% -9  0% 15 - 9 9 - 3 D- -12 F+ -10 D C- F C- -2 B+ D+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 113 Hofstra L 62 - 66 49% -4  17% 15 - 10 9 - 4 C- -4 F -14 F+ F+ D+ A +10 A A+ C-
 Sun, Feb 15 198 @Campbell W 62 - 57 46% +2  66% 16 - 10 10 - 4 B- +6 D -5 F A+ F+ A +12 A A+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 285 @N.C. A&T W 77 - 73 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 191 Monmouth W 74 - 69 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 248 @Hampton W 70 - 68 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 110 @UNC Wilmington L 67 - 74 27%
Totals 18 - 12 12 - 6 +0 F -2 F C- C- B- +1 F+ B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B D+ F+ C- 37% 41% 41% C- C- C- B- C C B B- B+ C+ D+ B B C+ 32% 24% 45% B B- C- B C+ D- A- B- A-
1.06 64% 35% 29% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 75% .26 1.07 62% 34% 31% -1 -1 0.97 31% 0.9 .29 14% .23 70% .25
Nov
7		 Liberty A- D A A- B 35% 22% 43% C- B- B A+ A+ D+ A+ F B+ F C- F F F+ 44% 8% 48% B- D- F F F F D D+ D
1.20 50% 50% 40% +4 0 1.09 36% 1.5 .55 19% .34 65% .22 1.44 64% 50% 46% +12 +2 1.30 32% 1.3 .42 8% .30 71% .21
Nov
8		 Florida Atlantic B C- D- B- C 43% 20% 37% C- C A F D B+ A+ A+ A+ F D F B C- 35% 15% 50% C- C- F F F F D- F+ F
1.14 55% 30% 37% -1 0 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 13% .41 88% .36 1.39 63% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.07 46% 1.3 .62 10% .36 77% .28
Nov
14		 South Carolina St. B+ A+ F F C+ 48% 14% 38% C C+ A- D- C+ A+ A+ D- A- C+ F+ A+ F C- 17% 52% 31% A+ B- F A+ B+ D- F A+ C-
1.31 92% 29% 16% +4 +2 1.14 47% 1.1 .50 10% .51 68% .35 0.91 63% 20% 47% -3 -6 0.85 38% 0.6 .22 18% .49 44% .22
Nov
17		 Drake F A+ F F F+ 13% 44% 42% F F B F D- D+ B- F+ C B- D A+ D+ C 26% 21% 53% C+ C+ C- A+ B+ A B+ A+ A
0.90 100% 26% 27% -4 -5 0.85 36% 0.6 .20 16% .33 63% .21 1.03 64% 27% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 0.8 .22 19% .25 57% .14
Nov
21		 Massachusetts D B+ B- F F 40% 15% 45% C+ F F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A- B+ F B C- 35% 22% 43% C+ C- C- B C+ B+ A A+ A+
1.02 68% 43% 14% -8 +1 0.87 11% 4.3 .48 13% .49 83% .41 0.96 50% 70% 30% +2 0 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 22% .25 46% .11
Nov
23		 Yale F+ C F F F 42% 17% 42% B F+ C F F C+ A+ D- A+ B- B C- F D+ 39% 29% 33% A- C B+ A+ A+ D C+ A+ A-
0.97 60% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 29% 0.5 .14 14% .43 67% .29 1.14 53% 43% 50% +7 -1 1.14 29% 0.9 .26 12% .32 61% .19
Nov
24		 Evansville C D C A C+ 31% 20% 49% C C+ D- B D+ C A B A A B+ C+ A+ A+ 47% 21% 32% F A A+ F A F C- C C-
1.11 53% 40% 42% +5 -1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 17% .36 76% .27 0.84 52% 36% 18% -11 +1 0.81 6% 2.0 .11 14% .30 72% .22
Nov
30		 Belmont D+ F F F F 13% 17% 69% D F C A- B A+ A+ C- A+ F F F F F 32% 20% 48% A F C A+ A F C+ A+ B+
1.03 43% 22% 25% -14 -1 0.71 33% 1.2 .39 11% .48 73% .35 1.36 83% 55% 48% +22 0 1.45 28% 0.9 .24 8% .29 58% .17
Dec
10		 South Florida B F+ F C- F+ 42% 12% 46% A D A D B- C A+ A+ A+ C D+ F A+ B- 44% 8% 48% C+ B- F A C+ D C- B C+
1.09 45% 17% 33% -8 +1 0.88 40% 0.9 .35 19% .45 80% .36 1.18 61% 50% 24% -5 +2 0.96 46% 1.0 .43 13% .38 70% .27
Dec
14		 Charlotte D A A- D- B 40% 26% 34% D+ B- D A C D- D F F+ B+ F C A+ B+ 28% 16% 56% B+ A- A- A+ A D A F B
1.09 70% 46% 29% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.4 .35 18% .29 63% .18 0.98 79% 38% 25% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.7 .18 16% .25 86% .21
Dec
17		 The Citadel D+ A+ C+ D- C 33% 12% 55% C- C F A+ F C- A+ A- A+ D- B B+ F F+ 27% 17% 56% C+ D- C- C+ C D+ A+ A+ A+
1.14 86% 40% 30% +7 +1 1.17 10% 1.3 .14 15% .67 76% .51 1.08 50% 30% 39% +1 0 1.03 29% 0.9 .26 17% .17 60% .10
Dec
21		 Northern Kentucky B C+ A+ C- A- 43% 17% 39% C+ A- C- B C+ C- A+ C A+ B B- D- B- C 35% 14% 51% C C F+ A+ B A+ C+ F D
1.15 60% 88% 33% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 20% .49 69% .34 1.00 56% 43% 31% -3 +1 0.98 36% 0.7 .26 23% .28 88% .25
Dec
29		 Drexel B- A+ C F+ A 33% 28% 39% D B+ C+ A+ A D+ C F F+ C C A+ F C- 20% 25% 55% A C+ C B C+ D+ D D+ D
1.15 87% 38% 28% +6 -1 1.11 33% 1.4 .47 18% .31 56% .17 1.01 56% 18% 42% +1 -2 1.00 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 69% .21
Dec
31		 Elon C+ F A+ C F+ 43% 16% 41% B D- C A B+ C- A+ A+ A+ C+ C- F A+ B+ 45% 10% 45% C B A F B- F C+ A- B-
1.15 43% 50% 35% -4 +1 0.96 33% 1.4 .45 16% .47 90% .42 1.10 59% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 8% .30 65% .19
Jan
5		 William & Mary C- A+ F A- A- 25% 26% 49% F B D- F F F A+ A A+ A- F A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% A+ A+ C+ D+ C F C D- C-
1.07 92% 21% 38% +7 -2 1.13 24% 0.8 .18 23% .46 79% .36 0.96 85% 5% 22% -14 -3 0.69 25% 1.2 .31 7% .33 80% .26
Jan
10		 Hampton B- A+ B- F+ B- 32% 24% 44% D C+ F A+ B- A- A+ B+ A+ D- D D- A+ C+ 25% 37% 37% A B- F B D- F A C+ A
1.18 85% 40% 28% +5 -1 1.10 17% 2.0 .35 13% .55 73% .40 1.11 62% 42% 21% -5 -3 0.86 45% 0.9 .39 13% .25 71% .18
Jan
15		 Towson F F F F+ F 36% 14% 50% B- F B+ F C- F F D F A A+ C+ A+ A+ 29% 25% 46% C- A+ A- F D- C- D+ F F
0.77 39% 14% 28% -15 +1 0.74 34% 0.7 .25 22% .17 67% .11 0.90 40% 38% 17% -17 -1 0.65 30% 1.3 .38 16% .30 88% .26
Jan
17		 Stony Brook A D+ F A C- 46% 19% 35% B- C D A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ F D F F+ F 35% 12% 53% D+ F A F C+ F F A- F
1.23 55% 25% 41% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.6 .43 12% .47 83% .39 1.30 61% 75% 40% +10 +1 1.24 20% 1.2 .24 9% .40 65% .26
Jan
22		 Campbell B- A+ B- A- A 44% 35% 21% F+ B+ B- D+ C+ D+ A+ B+ A+ D D B F F 20% 30% 50% A+ D+ C F F C A+ B+ A+
1.20 76% 41% 40% +11 -2 1.21 35% 1.1 .38 19% .49 79% .39 1.14 64% 31% 41% +4 -2 1.06 34% 1.8 .60 18% .20 67% .13
Jan
24		 Elon D+ A+ F F B- 30% 28% 42% D- C B F C- F A+ F A B+ D- F A+ A 27% 23% 50% A+ A+ B D C+ C+ C+ C- C
1.11 100% 21% 29% +5 -2 1.08 38% 0.9 .34 22% .46 62% .29 0.97 67% 54% 18% -6 -1 0.88 28% 1.1 .31 17% .30 72% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Hofstra D F B F F 47% 24% 29% B F A- C B+ B- B+ F C- A+ A A+ A A+ 32% 23% 45% C- A+ F+ A C D A+ A+ A+
0.96 42% 42% 13% -16 0 0.71 38% 1.1 .40 13% .37 59% .22 0.94 44% 23% 28% -12 -1 0.77 41% 0.9 .35 15% .09 40% .03
Jan
31		 Northeastern A- B+ A+ F D+ 58% 13% 28% A- C- D- A C A+ A- B A F+ F C+ F F 40% 23% 37% B+ F+ F+ A C F A+ A+ A+
1.29 68% 57% 20% +2 +2 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 7% .41 77% .31 1.22 71% 36% 41% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.8 .28 7% .08 40% .03
Feb
5		 N.C. A&T D+ A+ C+ F B+ 35% 31% 33% F B- D C- D+ F F B- D- A- D- A+ C+ B- 23% 30% 47% B+ B- C- A+ B A+ B- F C-
1.10 84% 41% 28% +7 -2 1.13 23% 1.0 .23 20% .25 71% .18 0.87 64% 21% 32% -5 -2 0.87 31% 0.8 .26 25% .34 83% .28
Feb
9		 UNC Wilmington F+ C- A- F D+ 27% 33% 40% D- D D A C- F A+ A A+ C- F A+ C- B- 23% 37% 40% A+ B+ B F D+ F A C- A-
0.94 58% 47% 22% -4 -2 0.89 21% 1.3 .27 19% .42 83% .35 1.12 77% 14% 35% -4 -3 0.88 30% 1.3 .40 7% .27 71% .19
Feb
12		 Hofstra F F F D+ F 23% 23% 54% D+ F+ F B- F+ D+ C+ A+ B+ A D B A+ A 22% 25% 53% B A B A+ A+ C- F B F
0.88 42% 17% 32% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.1 .20 16% .32 84% .27 0.94 64% 31% 26% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.5 .14 16% .44 73% .32
Feb
15		 Campbell D B+ F D- F 41% 30% 28% D F C+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ F A D- A+ A+ A+ 54% 15% 31% D+ A F A+ A+ F A+ F A+
1.02 68% 7% 31% -6 -1 0.87 32% 1.7 .55 21% .17 88% .15 0.94 64% 0% 13% -12 +2 0.81 43% 0.3 .14 12% .19 90% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 4.9 5.7 11.1 1st
2nd 0.1 8.7 35.6 24.4 1.9 70.6 2nd
3rd 0.9 9.9 0.9 11.7 3rd
4th 2.3 2.8 5.2 4th
5th 1.4 1.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 4.8 21.4 37.0 29.2 7.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 74.9% 5.7    2.5 3.3
13-5 16.7% 4.9    1.0 3.8 0.1
12-6 1.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 11.1% 11.1 3.4 7.2 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 7.6% 15.0% 15.0% 13.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 6.5
13-5 29.2% 14.1% 14.1% 13.6 0.1 1.7 2.2 0.2 25.1
12-6 37.0% 10.8% 10.8% 14.0 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 33.0
11-7 21.4% 8.7% 8.7% 14.2 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 19.6
10-8 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 14.6 0.1 0.1 4.6
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 13.8 88.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 13.0 16.7 62.3 21.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%
Lose Out 2.0%