College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.4 #161
Expected Predictive Rating +0.6 #154
Pace 70.4 #143
Improvement +0.9 #132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #162 C- C C+ B+ C-
Defense #183 C+ C+ F B- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #259 1.27 #72 +0.4 #165
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #156 0.70 #256 -0.2 #183
Three Pointers 43% #147 0.90 #322 -1.7 #243
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #220 -1.5 #219
Freethrows 19.7 #74 75% #119 14.7 #66
Second Chance 29.1% #227 1.09 #125 0.32 #182
Turnovers 15.7% #133
Total Offense +0.0 #162

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.20 #236 +3.2 #78
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #96 0.76 #169 -0.9 #252
Three Pointers 45% #70 0.97 #113 -0.9 #219
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #135 +1.3 #136
Freethrows 15.7 #95 70% #83 11.0 #82
Second Chance 30.6% #181 0.98 #93 0.30 #125
Turnovers 12.9% #347
Total Defense -0.5 #183

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #232 -1.5% #60
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.3% #206 -1.1% #162
Possession Length 17.2 #162 17.3 #180
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #152 0.19 #228
Improvement -0.8 #228 +1.6 #85

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 10.3% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 79.7% 86.4% 66.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.5% 91.5% 73.5%
Conference Champion 11.0% 14.2% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round9.1% 10.3% 6.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 66.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 411 - 318 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 95 @Liberty L 75 - 90 20% -8  0 - 1 -6 +13 B A+ D+ -21 F F F
 Sat, Nov 8 94 Florida Atlantic L 77 - 94 28% -15  0 - 2 -11 +10 C D A+ -22 C F F
 Fri, Nov 14 360 South Carolina St. W 88 - 61 94% +14  1 - 2 +9 +11 C+ C A+ -1 C+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 157 Drake L 62 - 71 60% -5  1 - 3 -12 -11 F D- D+ -1 C+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 174 Massachusetts W 69 - 65 53% -1  2 - 3 +3 -1 F A+ A +4 C- C+ A-
 Sun, Nov 23 84 Yale L 63 - 74 24% -9  2 - 4 -4 -6 F F C+ +1 C- A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 274 Evansville W 78 - 59 71% +12  3 - 4 +13 +5 B- C C +8 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 81 Belmont L 73 - 96 32% -19  3 - 5 -19 +0 F B A+ -19 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 86 @South Florida L 75 - 81 16% -2  3 - 6 +4 +8 D- B+ C+ -4 B- C D
 Sun, Dec 14 172 Charlotte W 74 - 67 64% +4  4 - 6 +3 -1 B- C+ D- +4 A- A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 350 The Citadel W 82 - 78 91% -2  5 - 6 -12 -2 C F D -10 F C+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 177 @Northern Kentucky W 85 - 74 42% +4  6 - 6 +13 +8 A- C+ C +4 C A- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 202 Drexel W 72 - 63 69% -1  7 - 6 1 - 0 +3 +7 A- A+ D -3 C+ B- D+
 Wed, Dec 31 169 @Elon W 85 - 81 40% +7  8 - 6 2 - 0 +6 +5 F A- D+ +1 A+ B+ F
 Mon, Jan 5 144 William & Mary W 88 - 79 57% +6  9 - 6 3 - 0 +7 +2 B+ F D- +4 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 233 Hampton W 74 - 70 74% +5  10 - 6 4 - 0 -3 +8 C+ B- A- -10 B F F
 Thu, Jan 15 163 @Towson L 52 - 61 39% -9  10 - 7 4 - 1 -7 -15 F D+ F +8 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 257 @Stony Brook L 106 - 112 2OT 57% -3  10 - 8 4 - 2 -8 +12 C- A+ A+ -19 F C F
 Thu, Jan 22 188 Campbell W 81 - 77 66%
 Sat, Jan 24 169 Elon W 80 - 77 62%
 Thu, Jan 29 121 @Hofstra L 70 - 76 29%
 Sat, Jan 31 239 @Northeastern W 79 - 78 52%
 Thu, Feb 5 310 N.C. A&T W 83 - 72 85%
 Mon, Feb 9 123 UNC Wilmington L 72 - 73 50%
 Thu, Feb 12 121 Hofstra L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 188 @Campbell L 78 - 80 43%
 Thu, Feb 19 310 @N.C. A&T W 80 - 75 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 198 Monmouth W 74 - 69 69%
 Thu, Feb 26 233 @Hampton W 71 - 70 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 123 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 75 28%
Totals 17 - 13 11 - 7 +0 +0 C- C C+ +0 C+ C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 4.4 3.3 1.5 0.2 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 2.4 7.5 4.9 0.9 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 8.2 5.7 0.5 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 6.5 6.8 1.0 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 7.8 1.6 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.5 6.1 3.3 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 4.7 0.5 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.5 3.4 1.2 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 2.1 0.1 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.4 2.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.3 4.1 8.9 15.1 19.7 19.3 15.6 9.8 4.2 1.5 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-3 98.0% 1.5    1.2 0.2
14-4 77.9% 3.3    2.0 1.2 0.1
13-5 45.0% 4.4    1.5 1.9 0.9 0.1
12-6 9.8% 1.5    0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 5.0 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.5% 27.2% 27.2% 12.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.1
14-4 4.2% 19.8% 19.8% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 3.4
13-5 9.8% 17.1% 17.1% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 8.1
12-6 15.6% 15.9% 15.9% 13.8 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 13.2
11-7 19.3% 9.3% 9.3% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 17.5
10-8 19.7% 5.1% 5.1% 14.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 18.7
9-9 15.1% 2.9% 2.9% 14.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 14.7
8-10 8.9% 3.3% 3.3% 15.2 0.2 0.1 8.6
7-11 4.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.0
6-12 1.3% 1.3
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 13.8 90.9 0.0%