College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #151
Expected Predictive Rating +2.6 #119
Pace 70.7 #123
Improvement +3.0 #58

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #166 C- C C B+ C-
Defense #145 C+ C D- A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #209 1.30 #51 +2.0 #114
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #144 0.72 #235 +0.2 #169
Three Pointers 40% #198 0.86 #350 -3.5 #302
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #216 -1.4 #215
Freethrows 0.36 #38 74% #112 0.27 #32
Second Chance 29.4% #215 1.07 #115 0.32 #162
Turnovers 16.6% #158
Total Offense -0.1 #166

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #340 1.21 #255 +3.4 #66
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #78 0.72 #119 -0.8 #255
Three Pointers 45% #64 0.96 #92 -0.7 #216
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #114 +1.9 #114
Freethrows 0.23 #17 69% #51 0.16 #15
Second Chance 31.0% #202 0.99 #123 0.31 #160
Turnovers 13.9% #338
Total Defense +0.6 #145

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #230 -1.8% #44
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.2% #212 -1.9% #142
Possession Length 17.2 #155 17.2 #170
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #158 0.18 #204
Improvement -0.9 #238 +3.9 #19

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 16.9% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 13.9
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 47.2% 69.2% 23.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.7% 16.9% 12.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 37 - 58 - 10
Quad 412 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 93 @Liberty L 75 - 90 21% -8  0 - 1 -6 +12 B- A+ C- -20 D F F
 Sat, Nov 8 109 Florida Atlantic L 77 - 94 38% -15  0 - 2 -13 +9 C D A- -23 C F F
 Fri, Nov 14 356 South Carolina St. W 88 - 61 94% +14  1 - 2 +10 +12 C+ C+ A+ -1 C+ B+ F+
 Mon, Nov 17 164 Drake L 62 - 71 65% -5  1 - 3 -12 -12 F D C- -0 C+ B A-
 Fri, Nov 21 176 Massachusetts W 69 - 65 56% -1  2 - 3 +3 -3 F A+ A- +6 C- C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 23 79 Yale L 63 - 74 26% -9  2 - 4 -4 -5 D- F C+ +1 C A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 288 Evansville W 78 - 59 77% +12  3 - 4 +12 +3 C+ C- C +8 A A+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 74 Belmont L 73 - 96 33% -19  3 - 5 -18 -1 F B- A+ -17 F A F
 Wed, Dec 10 71 @South Florida L 75 - 81 16% -2  3 - 6 +5 +7 D B- C+ -2 C+ C+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 155 Charlotte W 74 - 67 64% +3  4 - 6 +4 -1 B- C+ D +5 A- A+ D
 Wed, Dec 17 345 The Citadel W 82 - 78 92% -2  5 - 6 -11 -1 C F C- -10 D C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 201 @Northern Kentucky W 85 - 74 50% +4  6 - 6 +11 +8 A- C C +3 C B A+
 Mon, Dec 29 221 Drexel W 72 - 63 74% -1  7 - 6 1 - 0 +3 +8 B+ A D+ -4 C B- D+
 Wed, Dec 31 202 @Elon W 85 - 81 50% +7  8 - 6 2 - 0 +4 +5 D B C- -1 B+ B- F
 Mon, Jan 5 141 William & Mary W 88 - 79 59% +6  9 - 6 3 - 0 +7 +0 B- F+ D- +6 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 247 Hampton W 74 - 70 79% +5  10 - 6 4 - 0 -4 +8 C+ B- A- -11 C+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 158 @Towson L 52 - 61 41% -9  10 - 7 4 - 1 -6 -15 F C F +9 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 218 @Stony Brook L 106 - 112 2OT 53% -3  10 - 8 4 - 2 -6 +13 C- A+ A- -18 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 198 Campbell W 87 - 83 71% +3  11 - 8 5 - 2 -1 +6 B C D+ -8 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 24 202 Elon W 80 - 70 72% +10  12 - 8 6 - 2 +4 -1 C D+ F +5 A+ C C
 Thu, Jan 29 122 @Hofstra W 66 - 64 32% -3  13 - 8 7 - 2 +7 -4 F B B- +11 A+ C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 262 @Northeastern W 89 - 84 62% -2  14 - 8 8 - 2 +2 +13 C- C A+ -11 D- C F
 Thu, Feb 5 286 N.C. A&T W 78 - 62 84% +5  15 - 8 9 - 2 +6 -1 B- C- F +7 B- B A
 Mon, Feb 9 119 UNC Wilmington W 74 - 73 52%
 Thu, Feb 12 122 Hofstra W 73 - 72 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 198 @Campbell L 80 - 81 49%
 Thu, Feb 19 286 @N.C. A&T W 79 - 74 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 207 Monmouth W 75 - 69 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 247 @Hampton W 71 - 69 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 119 @UNC Wilmington L 71 - 76 32%
Totals 19 - 11 13 - 5 +0 +0 C- C C +1 C+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.4 13.3 18.4 9.6 2.3 47.2 1st
2nd 0.1 4.1 16.8 13.4 2.6 37.1 2nd
3rd 0.7 6.0 2.9 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 2.0 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 0.2 1.7 5th
6th 0.3 0.3 0.5 6th
7th 0.2 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.6 4.1 12.6 23.1 26.6 21.0 9.6 2.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.3    2.3
15-3 100.0% 9.6    9.1 0.6
14-4 87.5% 18.4    13.2 5.2
13-5 49.7% 13.3    5.3 6.9 1.0 0.0
12-6 14.7% 3.4    0.3 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.2% 47.2 30.2 14.2 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.3% 29.2% 29.2% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.7
15-3 9.6% 20.9% 20.9% 13.2 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 7.6
14-4 21.0% 18.3% 18.3% 13.6 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.2 17.2
13-5 26.6% 14.0% 14.0% 13.8 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 22.9
12-6 23.1% 12.8% 12.8% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.8 0.0 20.2
11-7 12.6% 9.3% 9.3% 14.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 11.4
10-8 4.1% 7.1% 7.1% 14.7 0.1 0.2 3.8
9-9 0.6% 0.6
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 13.7 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.5 1.5 54.4 38.2 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.3%