College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.2 152
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 134
Pace 69.7 142
Improvement +2.8 80

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 209 C- C C B C-
Defense C+ 128 B- C+ D- A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 242 B+ 65% 47 +1.3 128
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 134 D 34% 313 -0.1 186
Three Pointers 41% 183 F+ 29% 345 -3.2 288
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 243 C- -1.6 229
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 239
Second Chance C- 29.3% 214 C+ 1.07 114 C 0.31 171
Turnovers C 17.0% 187
Freethrows B 0.35 59 B- 75% 87 B 0.26 46
Total Offense C- -1.4 209

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 128 B- 9.4% 94
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 235 D+ 6.8% 289
Three Pointers D+ 80% 275 B 0.4% 73
Total C- 54% 221 C+ 5.2% 129

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 333 D+ 61% 276 -2.8 87
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 85 B 34% 57 +0.2 207
Three Pointers 45% 68 B 31% 72 +0.2 192
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 56 C+ -1.6 113
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 101
Second Chance C- 31.2% 216 B 0.95 63 C+ 0.30 131
Turnovers D- 13.9% 333
Freethrows A- 0.23 13 B- 70% 72 A- 0.16 13
Total Defense C+ +1.6 128

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 194 C+ 12.6% 105
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 210 B+ 8.7% 30
Three Pointers C- 86% 240 B- 1.4% 76
Total C- 57% 219 B- 6.7% 93

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 164 17.3 176
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 165 0.19 238
Improvement -2.6 #313 +5.5 #10

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 12% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 11% 15% 4%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round12% 12% 11%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 57 - 11
Quad 413 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 100 @Liberty L 75 - 90 23% -8  4% 0 - 1 D+ -7 A- +9 B- A+ D+ F -18 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 118 Florida Atlantic L 77 - 94 39% -15  0% 0 - 2 D- -14 B +7 C+ D B+ F -22 C- F F
 Fri, Nov 14 357 South Carolina St. W 88 - 61 95% +14  86% 1 - 2 B +9 B+ +9 C B- A+ C+ +1 B- B D-
 Mon, Nov 17 193 Drake L 62 - 71 69% -5  21% 1 - 3 D- -14 F -16 F D D+ B- +2 C B+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 182 Massachusetts W 69 - 65 56% -1  37% 2 - 3 C+ +3 D -6 F A+ A- A +9 C C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 23 81 Yale L 63 - 74 26% -9  0% 2 - 4 C- -4 F+ -9 F+ F C+ B +4 C A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 298 Evansville W 78 - 59 78% +12  93% 3 - 4 B +11 C -0 C+ D+ C A+ +11 A A F
 Sun, Nov 30 68 Belmont L 73 - 96 31% -19  1% 3 - 5 F -18 D+ -3 F B A+ F -14 F A F
 Wed, Dec 10 57 @South Florida L 75 - 81 13% -2  27% 3 - 6 B- +6 B +6 D B C C +0 B- C+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 178 Charlotte W 74 - 67 66% +3  74% 4 - 6 C+ +3 D -4 B- C+ D- A- +7 A- A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 342 The Citadel W 82 - 78 92% -2  42% 5 - 6 D- -11 D+ -3 C F C- F+ -8 D- C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 195 @Northern Kentucky W 85 - 74 47% +4  86% 6 - 6 B+ +12 B +6 A- C+ C- B+ +6 C+ B A+
 Mon, Dec 29 222 Drexel W 72 - 63 74% -1  37% 7 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +3 B- +5 B+ A D C -1 C+ C+ D
 Wed, Dec 31 204 @Elon W 85 - 81 50% +7  89% 8 - 6 2 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +2 D- B C- C+ +2 B B- F
 Mon, Jan 5 135 William & Mary W 88 - 79 56% +6  84% 9 - 6 3 - 0 B- +8 D+ -2 B F F A +8 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 258 Hampton W 74 - 70 80% +5  95% 10 - 6 4 - 0 C- -5 B- +5 C+ B- A- F+ -9 C+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 168 @Towson L 52 - 61 41% -9  0% 10 - 7 4 - 1 D+ -6 F -18 F C- F A+ +11 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 216 @Stony Brook L 106 - 112 2OT 52% -3  17% 10 - 8 4 - 2 D+ -6 A- +11 C A A F -16 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 194 Campbell W 87 - 83 69% +3  54% 11 - 8 5 - 2 C -1 B- +4 B+ C+ D+ D -5 D F C
 Sat, Jan 24 204 Elon W 80 - 70 72% +10  98% 12 - 8 6 - 2 C+ +4 D+ -3 C C- F A- +8 A+ C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 29 108 @Hofstra W 66 - 64 26% -3  18% 13 - 8 7 - 2 B +9 D -5 F B+ B- A+ +14 A+ C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 289 @Northeastern W 89 - 84 67% -2  21% 14 - 8 8 - 2 C +1 A- +11 C- C+ A+ F -10 F C F
 Thu, Feb 5 290 N.C. A&T W 78 - 62 84% +5  68% 15 - 8 9 - 2 B- +6 D+ -4 B- D+ F A +9 B- B+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 112 UNC Wilmington L 64 - 76 49% -9  0% 15 - 9 9 - 3 D- -11 F+ -9 D C F C- -2 B D+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 108 Hofstra L 62 - 66 47% -4  17% 15 - 10 9 - 4 C- -3 F -14 F+ F+ C- A +11 A A+ C-
 Sun, Feb 15 194 @Campbell W 62 - 57 47% +2  66% 16 - 10 10 - 4 B- +6 D -5 F A+ F+ A+ +12 A A+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 290 @N.C. A&T W 74 - 61 67% +11  96% 17 - 10 11 - 4 B +9 B- +4 B- D- C+ B+ +6 B D+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 190 Monmouth W 74 - 69 69%
 Thu, Feb 26 258 @Hampton W 70 - 67 60%
 Sat, Feb 28 112 @UNC Wilmington L 68 - 74 27%
Totals 19 - 11 13 - 5 +0 C- -1 D C- C- C+ +2 F+ B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B+ D F+ C- 36% 41% 41% C- C- C- C+ C C B B- B C+ D+ B B C+ 32% 23% 45% B B- C- B C+ D- A- B- A-
1.07 65% 34% 29% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .31 17% .35 75% .26 1.06 61% 34% 31% -2 -1 0.97 31% 0.9 .30 14% .23 70% .24
Nov
7		 Liberty A- D A A- B 35% 22% 43% C- B- B A+ A+ D+ A+ F B+ F C- F F F+ 44% 8% 48% B- D- F F F F D D+ D
1.20 50% 50% 40% +4 0 1.09 36% 1.5 .55 19% .34 65% .22 1.44 64% 50% 46% +12 +2 1.30 32% 1.3 .42 8% .30 71% .21
Nov
8		 Florida Atlantic B C- D- B C+ 43% 20% 37% C- C+ A F D B+ A+ A+ A+ F D F B C- 35% 15% 50% C- C- F F F F D- F+ F
1.14 55% 30% 37% -1 0 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 13% .41 88% .36 1.39 63% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.07 46% 1.3 .62 10% .36 77% .28
Nov
14		 South Carolina St. B+ A+ F F C 48% 14% 38% C C A F+ B- A+ A+ D A C+ F+ A+ F C- 17% 52% 31% A+ B- F A+ B D- F A+ D+
1.31 92% 29% 16% +4 +2 1.14 47% 1.1 .50 10% .51 68% .35 0.91 63% 20% 47% -3 -6 0.85 38% 0.6 .22 18% .49 44% .22
Nov
17		 Drake F A+ F F F+ 13% 44% 42% F F B F D D+ B- F+ C B- D A+ D+ C 26% 21% 53% C+ C C- A+ B+ A B+ A+ A
0.90 100% 26% 27% -4 -5 0.85 36% 0.6 .20 16% .33 63% .21 1.03 64% 27% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 0.8 .22 19% .25 57% .14
Nov
21		 Massachusetts D B+ B- F F 40% 15% 45% C+ F F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A B+ F B+ C- 35% 22% 43% C+ C C- B C+ B+ A A+ A+
1.02 68% 43% 14% -8 +1 0.87 11% 4.3 .48 13% .49 83% .41 0.96 50% 70% 30% +2 0 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 22% .25 46% .11
Nov
23		 Yale F+ C+ F F F 42% 17% 42% B F+ C F F C+ A+ D- A+ B B C- F C- 39% 29% 33% A- C B+ A+ A+ D C+ A+ A-
0.97 60% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 29% 0.5 .14 14% .43 67% .29 1.14 53% 43% 50% +7 -1 1.14 29% 0.9 .26 12% .32 61% .19
Nov
24		 Evansville C D C A C+ 31% 20% 49% C C+ D- B D+ C A B A A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ 47% 21% 32% F A A+ F A F C- C C-
1.11 53% 40% 42% +5 -1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 17% .36 76% .27 0.84 52% 36% 18% -11 +1 0.81 6% 2.0 .11 14% .30 72% .22
Nov
30		 Belmont D+ F F F F 13% 17% 69% D F C A- B A+ A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 32% 20% 48% A F C A+ A F C+ A+ B+
1.03 43% 22% 25% -14 -1 0.71 33% 1.2 .39 11% .48 73% .35 1.36 83% 55% 48% +22 0 1.45 28% 0.9 .24 8% .29 58% .17
Dec
10		 South Florida B F+ F C- F+ 42% 12% 46% A D A D+ B C A+ A+ A+ C D+ F A+ B- 44% 8% 48% C B- F A C+ D C B C+
1.09 45% 17% 33% -8 +1 0.88 40% 0.9 .35 19% .45 80% .36 1.18 61% 50% 24% -5 +2 0.96 46% 1.0 .43 13% .38 70% .27
Dec
14		 Charlotte D A A- D- B 40% 26% 34% D+ B- D A C+ D- D F F+ A- F C- A+ A- 28% 16% 56% B+ A- A- A+ A+ D- A F B
1.09 70% 46% 29% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.4 .35 18% .29 63% .18 0.98 79% 38% 25% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.7 .18 16% .25 86% .21
Dec
17		 The Citadel D+ A+ C+ D- C 33% 12% 55% C- C F A+ F C- A+ A- A+ F+ B B+ F F+ 27% 17% 56% C+ D- C- C+ C D+ A A A+
1.14 86% 40% 30% +7 +1 1.17 10% 1.3 .14 15% .67 76% .51 1.08 50% 30% 39% +1 0 1.03 29% 0.9 .26 17% .17 60% .10
Dec
21		 Northern Kentucky B C+ A+ C- A- 43% 17% 39% C+ A- C- B C+ C- A+ C- A+ B+ B- D- B- C+ 35% 14% 51% C C+ F+ A+ B A+ C+ F D
1.15 60% 88% 33% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 20% .49 69% .34 1.00 56% 43% 31% -3 +1 0.98 36% 0.7 .26 23% .28 88% .25
Dec
29		 Drexel B- A+ C F+ A 33% 28% 39% D B+ C+ A+ A D C F F+ C C+ A+ F C 20% 25% 55% A C+ C- B- C+ D D D+ D
1.15 87% 38% 28% +6 -1 1.11 33% 1.4 .47 18% .31 56% .17 1.01 56% 18% 42% +1 -2 1.00 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 69% .21
Dec
31		 Elon C+ F A+ C F+ 43% 16% 41% B D- C A B C- A+ A+ A+ C+ C- F A+ B+ 45% 10% 45% C- B A+ F B- F C+ B+ B-
1.15 43% 50% 35% -4 +1 0.96 33% 1.4 .45 16% .47 90% .42 1.10 59% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 8% .30 65% .19
Jan
5		 William & Mary D+ A+ F A- A- 25% 26% 49% F B D- F F F A+ A A+ A F A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% A+ A+ C+ D C F C D- C-
1.07 92% 21% 38% +7 -2 1.13 24% 0.8 .18 23% .46 79% .36 0.96 85% 5% 22% -14 -3 0.69 25% 1.2 .31 7% .33 80% .26
Jan
10		 Hampton B- A+ B- F+ B- 32% 24% 44% D C+ F A+ B- A- A+ A- A+ F+ D D- A+ C 25% 37% 37% A C+ F B- D- F A C+ A
1.18 85% 40% 28% +5 -1 1.10 17% 2.0 .35 13% .55 73% .40 1.11 62% 42% 21% -5 -3 0.86 45% 0.9 .39 13% .25 71% .18
Jan
15		 Towson F F F F+ F 36% 14% 50% B- F B+ F C- F F D F A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 29% 25% 46% C- A+ A- F D- C- D+ F F
0.77 39% 14% 28% -15 +1 0.74 34% 0.7 .25 22% .17 67% .11 0.90 40% 38% 17% -17 -1 0.65 30% 1.3 .38 16% .30 88% .26
Jan
17		 Stony Brook A- D+ F A C- 46% 19% 35% B- C D- A+ A A A+ A+ A+ F D F F+ F 35% 12% 53% D+ F A F C+ F F A F
1.23 55% 25% 41% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.6 .43 12% .47 83% .39 1.30 61% 75% 40% +10 +1 1.24 20% 1.2 .24 9% .40 65% .26
Jan
22		 Campbell B- A+ B- A- A- 44% 35% 21% F+ B+ B- D+ C+ D+ A+ B+ A+ D D- B F F 20% 30% 50% A+ D C F F C A+ B+ A+
1.20 76% 41% 40% +11 -2 1.21 35% 1.1 .38 19% .49 79% .39 1.14 64% 31% 41% +4 -2 1.06 34% 1.8 .60 18% .20 67% .13
Jan
24		 Elon D+ A+ F F B- 30% 28% 42% D- C B F C- F A+ F A A- D- F A+ A 27% 23% 50% A+ A+ B D C+ C+ C+ C- C
1.11 100% 21% 29% +5 -2 1.08 38% 0.9 .34 22% .46 62% .29 0.97 67% 54% 18% -6 -1 0.88 28% 1.1 .31 17% .30 72% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Hofstra D F B F F 47% 24% 29% B F A- C+ B+ B- A- F C A+ A A+ A A+ 32% 23% 45% C- A+ F+ A C+ D+ A+ A+ A+
0.96 42% 42% 13% -16 0 0.71 38% 1.1 .40 13% .37 59% .22 0.94 44% 23% 28% -12 -1 0.77 41% 0.9 .35 15% .09 40% .03
Jan
31		 Northeastern A- B A+ F D 58% 13% 28% A- C- D A C+ A+ A- B A F F C+ F F 40% 23% 37% B F F+ A C F A+ A+ A+
1.29 68% 57% 20% +2 +2 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 7% .41 77% .31 1.22 71% 36% 41% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.8 .28 7% .08 40% .03
Feb
5		 N.C. A&T D+ A+ C+ F B 35% 31% 33% F+ B- D C- D+ F F+ B- D- A D- A+ C+ B- 23% 30% 47% B+ B- C- A+ B+ A+ B- F C-
1.10 84% 41% 28% +7 -2 1.13 23% 1.0 .23 20% .25 71% .18 0.87 64% 21% 32% -5 -2 0.87 31% 0.8 .26 25% .34 83% .28
Feb
9		 UNC Wilmington F+ C- A- F D+ 27% 33% 40% D D D- A C F A+ A A+ C- F A+ C- B- 23% 37% 40% A+ B B- F D+ F A C A
0.94 58% 47% 22% -4 -2 0.89 21% 1.3 .27 19% .42 83% .35 1.12 77% 14% 35% -4 -3 0.88 30% 1.3 .40 7% .27 71% .19
Feb
12		 Hofstra F F F C- F+ 23% 23% 54% D+ F+ F B+ F+ C- C+ A+ B+ A D B A+ A 22% 25% 53% B A B A+ A+ C- F B F
0.88 42% 17% 32% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.1 .20 16% .32 84% .27 0.94 64% 31% 26% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.5 .14 16% .44 73% .32
Feb
15		 Campbell D B+ F D- F 41% 30% 28% D F C+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ F A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 54% 15% 31% D+ A F A+ A+ F A+ F A+
1.02 68% 7% 31% -6 -1 0.87 32% 1.7 .55 21% .17 88% .15 0.94 64% 0% 13% -12 +2 0.81 43% 0.3 .14 12% .19 90% .17
Feb
19		 N.C. A&T B- A+ F A+ B+ 31% 29% 40% F+ B- B F D- C+ F+ B- D B+ A- C B+ B+ 37% 17% 46% F+ B B- F D+ C A- A A
1.17 81% 20% 43% +7 -2 1.13 32% 0.6 .19 13% .25 71% .18 0.96 47% 38% 29% -8 0 0.87 28% 1.3 .36 19% .29 67% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.3 8.1 11.5 1st
2nd 3.0 36.2 38.8 4.0 81.9 2nd
3rd 5.2 5.2 3rd
4th 1.5 1.5 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 9.6 36.2 42.1 12.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 67.2% 8.1    2.8 5.3
13-5 7.8% 3.3    0.3 3.0
12-6 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 11.5% 11.5 3.0 8.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 12.1% 15.0% 15.0% 13.1 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 10.3
13-5 42.1% 13.0% 13.0% 13.6 0.1 2.3 2.7 0.4 36.6
12-6 36.2% 10.6% 10.6% 14.0 0.0 0.8 2.3 0.7 32.4
11-7 9.6% 8.4% 8.4% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.8
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 13.7 88.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 13.1 13.8 66.4 19.3 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4%
Lose Out 4.4%