Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -13.5 351
Results Rating -12.2 340
Pace 65.4 267
Improvement -5.9 354

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 354 D+ D F D B-
Defense D 304 D C D+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 100 C- 57% 200 +1.2 132
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 231 F+ 30% 359 -2.9 314
Three Pointers 42% 157 D+ 32% 267 -0.6 204
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 86 D+ -2.9 287
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.98 251
Second Chance F+ 22.7% 347 C+ 1.07 115 D 0.24 322
Turnovers F 21.4% 360
Freethrows C- 0.29 216 F 64% 362 D 0.19 303
Total Offense F+ -9.1 354

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 130 D 13.5% 317
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 163 F+ 8.8% 342
Three Pointers A- 94% 10 C+ 0.8% 152
Total B 62% 57 D- 7.4% 335

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 267 D 63% 319 +0.5 199
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 128 D- 43% 332 +1.6 308
Three Pointers 42% 133 D+ 36% 281 +2.1 284
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 108 D- +4.5 333
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 317
Second Chance C 29.9% 162 C- 1.06 234 C 0.32 200
Turnovers D+ 14.9% 295
Freethrows C 0.31 206 B- 70% 71 C 0.22 177
Total Defense D -4.4 304

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 205 D+ 8.1% 295
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 262 C 5.2% 146
Three Pointers C 84% 164 D+ 0.6% 239
Total C 57% 206 D+ 4.3% 287

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.6 357 15.6 1
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 312 0.19 255
Improvement -2.1 #292 -3.8 #336

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 356 350 339
Results Rating Rank 347 344 322
Conference Record 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20
Conference Finish 12 12 12
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 60 - 6
Quad 20 - 90 - 16
Quad 30 - 90 - 25
Quad 43 - 43 - 29


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 67 @Belmont L 63 - 79 2% -4  29% 0 - 1 C- -5 D- -6 A+ C- F C+ +1 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 157 Austin Peay L 54 - 74 16% -10  0% 0 - 2 F -23 F -23 D- D F C+ +0 D- B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 219 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 76 25% -0  51% 0 - 3 D -10 D -4 D+ C+ C- D -6 C- D C+
 Sat, Nov 15 83 Miami (OH) L 61 - 76 6% -10  0% 0 - 4 D -11 F -12 F D C- C+ +1 D+ A- B-
 Wed, Nov 19 312 Alabama St. W 66 - 64 45% -2  11% 1 - 4 D -10 F -10 C A+ F C -0 C+ A D+
 Fri, Nov 21 260 SIU Edwardsville W 77 - 63 32% +8  98% 2 - 4 B- +5 C+ +3 D- A B- B- +2 C+ C+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 325 IU Indianapolis W 98 - 85 50% +2  59% 3 - 4 C -0 C+ +3 A D C D -5 C F C
 Wed, Nov 26 168 Northern Colorado L 53 - 71 17% -5  17% 3 - 5 F -21 F -18 F+ C- F+ D- -6 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 293 South Dakota L 63 - 80 29% -11  2% 3 - 6 F -25 F -15 F F D+ F -10 F+ D B
 Wed, Dec 3 117 Pacific L 65 - 80 11% -9  4% 3 - 7 F+ -15 C +0 C+ B+ D- F -17 C- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 154 @Navy L 56 - 61 7% +0  55% 3 - 8 C- -2 F+ -10 F+ D C A- +7 B A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 45 @San Diego St. L 58 - 81 1% -8  17% 3 - 9 0 - 1 D -9 C- -1 C+ B D+ F+ -9 D- F C
 Tue, Dec 30 100 Wyoming L 56 - 68 8% -5  7% 3 - 10 0 - 2 D -10 F -19 C F F A +9 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 118 @UNLV L 39 - 67 5% -15  0% 3 - 11 0 - 3 F -22 F -33 F F D A +9 A+ F C+
 Tue, Jan 6 28 Utah St. L 62 - 99 2% -20  0% 3 - 12 0 - 4 F -25 D -5 C B- B- F -22 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 47 New Mexico L 49 - 91 3% -21  5% 3 - 13 0 - 5 F -34 F -22 C+ F F F -13 D+ B- D+
 Tue, Jan 13 218 @San Jose St. L 62 - 70 11% -4  10% 3 - 14 0 - 6 D -8 D- -7 D+ D- F C- -3 D+ C- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 78 Nevada L 66 - 81 6% -10  21% 3 - 15 0 - 7 D -10 D- -7 A F D- D+ -4 F A A+
 Tue, Jan 20 91 @Colorado St. L 52 - 81 3% -17  2% 3 - 16 0 - 8 F -20 F -19 F F F D+ -3 C- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 64 @Boise St. L 54 - 96 2% -19  3% 3 - 17 0 - 9 F -30 F+ -10 C- D F+ F -26 F F F
 Sat, Jan 31 132 Fresno St. L 62 - 79 12% -8  3% 3 - 18 0 - 10 F -18 F -14 D+ F+ F D+ -4 D A F+
 Tue, Feb 3 62 @Grand Canyon L 57 - 81 2% -21  0% 3 - 19 0 - 11 D- -12 F+ -8 D+ B F D+ -5 F C- D
 Sat, Feb 7 45 San Diego St. L 54 - 88 3% -20  9% 3 - 20 0 - 12 F -26 F -14 B F F F -12 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 91 Colorado St. L 74 - 91 7% -8  14% 3 - 21 0 - 13 D- -14 C+ +2 A+ F F F -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 132 @Fresno St. L 63 - 93 5% -17  0% 3 - 22 0 - 14 F -25 F -11 C- F F F -13 D- F F
 Tue, Feb 17 47 @New Mexico L 61 - 98 1% -18  1% 3 - 23 0 - 15 F -23 D- -8 D F B F -14 F D- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 118 UNLV L 66 - 91 11% -6  18% 3 - 24 0 - 16 F -25 F -11 F B+ F F -14 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 24 218 San Jose St. L 66 - 73 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 100 @Wyoming L 59 - 81 2%
 Tue, Mar 3 62 Grand Canyon L 58 - 77 4%
 Sat, Mar 7 78 @Nevada L 57 - 81 1%
Totals 3 - 28 0 - 20 -14 F+ -9 B- D+ B- D -4 D+ F D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ C- F+ D+ D+ 41% 33% 42% B- D+ F+ C+ D F C- F D D D D- D+ D- 36% 22% 42% C+ D C C- C D+ C B- C
0.96 57% 30% 32% -3 +1 0.98 23% 1.1 .24 21% .29 64% .19 1.15 63% 43% 36% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.1 .32 15% .31 70% .21
Nov
3		 Belmont D- A+ B B A+ 33% 23% 44% C- A+ B- D- C- F F+ B- D- C+ F A+ A A- 48% 10% 42% D+ B+ B- A+ A+ F F F F
0.95 79% 40% 37% +9 -1 1.19 35% 0.9 .30 35% .21 78% .16 1.19 74% 20% 30% +3 +2 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 12% .43 84% .36
Nov
8		 Austin Peay F B- F B- D- 32% 18% 50% C- D- B+ F D F A+ F D- C+ D- F C+ F 30% 23% 47% A- D- C A+ B+ A+ F A+ F
0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16 1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31
Nov
11		 LIU Brooklyn D C F B+ D 53% 19% 28% C+ D+ B- C- C+ C- A+ F B D B B+ F D+ 41% 37% 22% A C- F A D C+ F A+ F
1.04 56% 11% 38% -4 +1 0.96 38% 1.0 .38 19% .44 60% .27 1.10 53% 33% 56% +3 -2 1.05 50% 0.8 .39 22% .65 54% .35
Nov
15		 Miami (OH) F F A+ D- F 48% 15% 37% A- F F A+ D C- A+ F B+ C+ B F F D- 26% 20% 54% A- D+ F A+ A- B- A+ A+ A+
0.91 41% 57% 29% -8 +1 0.89 17% 1.2 .19 18% .40 64% .25 1.14 57% 64% 41% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.6 .19 16% .09 60% .05
Nov
19		 Alabama St. F D+ F A- C- 38% 8% 54% B C F+ A+ A+ F A+ F B C C C A C+ 40% 22% 38% D+ C+ A+ C+ A D+ D- F F
0.99 57% 0% 40% +1 +2 1.08 25% 2.2 .54 26% .46 65% .30 0.96 55% 36% 26% -6 0 0.90 18% 0.8 .15 17% .34 79% .27
Nov
21		 SIU Edwardsville C+ F A+ D F 40% 14% 47% B+ D- C A+ A B- A+ C- A+ B- D C- A+ C 32% 34% 34% B- C+ B D C+ C+ F C F
1.12 35% 50% 30% -10 +1 0.84 33% 1.4 .47 15% .56 73% .41 0.92 60% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 19% .43 67% .29
Nov
23		 IU Indianapolis C+ B+ A+ A+ A 53% 5% 42% B+ A F A+ D C F A F D D+ A- B C+ 37% 17% 46% D- C D+ F F C F C F
1.24 69% 67% 43% +13 +3 1.35 26% 1.4 .37 19% .27 82% .22 1.08 64% 30% 30% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.3 .40 16% .27 72% .20
Nov
26		 Northern Colorado F A+ F F D 31% 38% 31% F F+ F+ A+ C- F+ D- F F D- F+ F F F 35% 16% 49% C F A+ B A+ D A A+ A
0.87 87% 22% 13% -7 -3 0.83 18% 1.5 .27 16% .27 57% .16 1.16 71% 50% 42% +12 0 1.27 15% 1.0 .15 15% .15 63% .10
Nov
29		 South Dakota F F+ F F F 68% 7% 24% A F F A+ F D+ A+ C- A+ F F F A+ F 45% 20% 35% C- F+ F A+ D B F B- F+
0.92 50% 0% 10% -17 +4 0.76 13% 1.5 .20 17% .62 74% .46 1.16 68% 60% 24% +4 0 1.10 49% 0.6 .31 20% .46 72% .33
Dec
3		 Pacific C A C- F+ C+ 33% 21% 46% B C+ C- A+ B+ D- A+ F A+ F F F B+ D- 34% 38% 28% A+ C- F F F F F F F
1.07 69% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 23% 1.4 .33 18% .64 59% .38 1.31 69% 50% 31% +7 -3 1.11 44% 1.3 .56 12% .37 90% .33
Dec
7		 Navy F+ D C+ F F 27% 21% 52% C F+ F A+ D C C+ F D A- B A D+ B 42% 29% 29% B- B A+ B- A+ F A- F C
0.88 54% 40% 24% -9 -1 0.83 17% 1.3 .22 17% .27 57% .15 0.96 50% 29% 36% -5 -1 0.90 18% 1.0 .18 13% .27 93% .25
Dec
17		 San Diego St. C- D C D+ C 35% 8% 58% A C+ D- A+ B D+ B- B- B- F+ D+ B- F D 47% 18% 35% F D- F D- F C A- A A
0.91 50% 33% 30% -6 +1 0.93 21% 1.5 .32 23% .33 75% .25 1.27 65% 33% 41% +6 +1 1.16 39% 1.2 .48 17% .25 69% .17
Dec
30		 Wyoming F A+ F F C- 60% 12% 28% A- C F F F F C+ F D- A A A+ C A+ 32% 12% 56% B- A+ C F F A+ F F F
0.82 73% 20% 8% -4 +3 1.00 14% 0.5 .07 28% .40 55% .22 0.99 46% 0% 35% -8 +1 0.88 36% 1.3 .45 29% .55 89% .49
Jan
3		 UNLV F F F F F 52% 8% 40% A+ F F D F D F F F A C+ B+ A+ A+ 50% 22% 28% D+ A+ F+ F F C+ C- A+ B+
0.60 36% 25% 16% -23 +3 0.60 19% 1.0 .19 20% .25 46% .11 1.03 56% 36% 21% -7 +1 0.90 38% 1.1 .41 17% .37 55% .20
Jan
6		 Utah St. D C+ F C C- 41% 20% 39% B C F A+ B- B- B C+ B F C D- D- C 43% 13% 43% C+ C F F F F B- A B+
0.94 58% 11% 33% -6 0 0.91 21% 1.6 .33 20% .36 74% .26 1.50 61% 43% 39% +5 +1 1.15 44% 2.2 .97 11% .29 65% .19
Jan
10		 New Mexico F C A+ F C 48% 15% 38% A C+ F+ F F F A F D F D- F D+ D 31% 9% 60% C+ D+ F A+ B- D+ B F+ C+
0.71 58% 67% 20% -4 +1 0.98 18% 0.7 .12 31% .36 47% .17 1.32 67% 60% 37% +7 +1 1.19 39% 0.7 .28 13% .27 81% .22
Jan
13		 San Jose St. D- B F C+ D+ 36% 17% 48% C- D+ D+ F+ D- F B B+ B+ C- D+ C+ D D+ 36% 26% 38% D D+ B+ F C- C- F C F
1.01 67% 14% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 26% .33 80% .27 1.14 60% 36% 38% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.3 .36 15% .46 75% .34
Jan
17		 Nevada D- A- F A+ A+ 21% 21% 58% D A F F F D- F A+ F D+ F D F F 40% 27% 33% C F B- A+ A A+ C- F F
0.96 64% 18% 45% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.0 .00 20% .11 100% .11 1.18 67% 42% 53% +14 -1 1.29 32% 0.8 .24 22% .39 90% .36
Jan
20		 Colorado St. F A+ D F F 29% 13% 58% B F F F F F D- A- D+ D+ F C D+ D+ 40% 17% 44% C C- A+ C- A F D- A+ C
0.80 79% 33% 14% -12 0 0.79 17% 0.7 .11 21% .23 75% .18 1.24 74% 38% 38% +9 +1 1.21 23% 1.1 .26 9% .39 65% .25
Jan
24		 Boise St. F+ F A B C- 34% 23% 43% C+ C- F+ B+ D F+ D F F F D B- F F 43% 17% 40% C+ F F F F F F+ A- D
0.87 40% 50% 37% -2 -1 0.98 13% 1.3 .16 19% .22 55% .12 1.55 65% 33% 52% +13 +1 1.30 42% 1.5 .65 6% .43 72% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Fresno St. F D- F C+ D 40% 15% 45% B- D+ D- F F+ F F+ D+ F+ D+ C F+ F+ F+ 28% 20% 52% B+ D A B+ A F+ B- A+ B+
0.87 52% 13% 33% -7 +1 0.91 21% 0.9 .18 24% .18 70% .13 1.11 60% 45% 39% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 14% .28 65% .18
Feb
3		 Grand Canyon F+ F A+ F+ D 40% 19% 40% B+ D+ D+ A+ B F F A+ C- D+ F D- D+ F 48% 13% 38% F+ F C- C C- D D+ A+ A
0.83 37% 56% 26% -10 0 0.83 22% 1.6 .34 26% .24 92% .22 1.18 72% 43% 35% +8 +2 1.21 34% 1.1 .38 15% .36 48% .17
Feb
7		 San Diego St. F B- F C B- 39% 14% 48% B+ B F F+ F F D- F+ F+ F F F C+ F 36% 33% 31% B- F A+ D- A+ F A A- A+
0.77 59% 17% 33% -3 +1 0.98 14% 0.8 .10 31% .25 67% .17 1.25 86% 53% 33% +14 -2 1.28 16% 1.3 .20 9% .22 71% .16
Feb
10		 Colorado St. C+ A F A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% B A+ D- F F F A+ F C F F F F F 20% 20% 61% A F A+ A+ A+ F F D F
1.13 71% 29% 58% +19 +1 1.42 21% 0.5 .10 20% .42 45% .19 1.39 75% 50% 56% +26 -1 1.51 14% 0.0 .00 12% .63 81% .51
Feb
14		 Fresno St. F B F C- C 24% 22% 53% D C- F F F F C+ A B F F F B F 28% 28% 43% A+ D- C+ F F F F B F
0.86 67% 27% 31% -3 -1 0.94 18% 0.8 .15 25% .27 80% .22 1.28 73% 60% 30% +8 -2 1.15 29% 1.9 .55 12% .48 71% .34
Feb
17		 New Mexico D- C A+ F D 23% 17% 60% C+ D F C F B B F C F D F F F 44% 2% 54% F+ F F B+ D- C+ F A+ D+
0.86 58% 56% 23% -7 -1 0.87 13% 1.0 .13 17% .32 63% .20 1.39 64% 100% 52% +18 +3 1.44 45% 0.9 .39 16% .40 63% .25
Feb
21		 UNLV F F F C- F 51% 20% 29% B F C+ A B+ F F A F F F F F F 29% 40% 31% A+ F A+ F A+ F A+ F+ A+
0.96 46% 20% 33% -10 +1 0.84 32% 1.3 .42 22% .19 80% .15 1.32 71% 61% 50% +20 -3 1.36 12% 1.3 .15 6% .20 77% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.7 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 70.2 28.0 1.0 0.0 99.2 12th
Total 70.2 28.0 1.8 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 1.8% 1.8
1-19 28.0% 28.0
0-20 70.2% 70.2
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 69.1%