Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#258
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#120
Pace59.1#350
Improvement+0.3#146

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#289
First Shot-3.2#272
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#250
Layup/Dunks+0.1#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#153
Freethrows-3.0#331
Improvement+1.4#51

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#211
First Shot-3.7#284
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#43
Layups/Dunks-2.1#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#139
Freethrows-3.0#320
Improvement-1.1#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 14.8% 21.5% 7.7%
.500 or above in Conference 4.0% 4.8% 3.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.5% 32.0% 39.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 33 - 64 - 15
Quad 48 - 312 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 233   South Dakota L 53-59 43%     0 - 1 -9.4 -19.1 +9.3
  Nov 13, 2021 142   @ Tulsa W 59-58 17%     1 - 1 +5.8 -4.5 +10.4
  Nov 17, 2021 199   Texas Southern W 61-57 48%     2 - 1 -0.8 -6.8 +6.4
  Nov 20, 2021 342   Holy Cross W 72-53 77%     3 - 1 +5.8 -2.2 +9.5
  Nov 21, 2021 344   Bethune-Cookman W 73-65 78%     4 - 1 -5.4 +1.5 -6.0
  Nov 24, 2021 324   Denver W 66-65 77%     5 - 1 -11.9 -6.6 -5.2
  Nov 27, 2021 309   Idaho St. W 59-48 71%     6 - 1 -0.2 -9.7 +11.1
  Dec 04, 2021 223   Army W 63-62 51%    
  Dec 08, 2021 205   @ Montana L 59-65 28%    
  Dec 19, 2021 231   @ Arkansas St. L 61-66 33%    
  Dec 21, 2021 153   @ Tarleton St. L 52-61 20%    
  Dec 28, 2021 46   Utah St. L 58-70 13%    
  Jan 01, 2022 130   @ Fresno St. L 55-66 17%    
  Jan 04, 2022 42   @ Colorado St. L 58-77 5%    
  Jan 08, 2022 145   UNLV L 59-63 35%    
  Jan 15, 2022 92   Nevada L 63-71 24%    
  Jan 18, 2022 68   @ Boise St. L 52-68 8%    
  Jan 22, 2022 42   Colorado St. L 61-74 13%    
  Jan 25, 2022 294   @ San Jose St. L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 28, 2022 78   Wyoming L 60-69 22%    
  Feb 01, 2022 46   @ Utah St. L 55-73 6%    
  Feb 05, 2022 230   New Mexico W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 08, 2022 145   @ UNLV L 56-66 20%    
  Feb 12, 2022 49   @ San Diego St. L 49-67 6%    
  Feb 15, 2022 68   Boise St. L 55-65 20%    
  Feb 19, 2022 78   @ Wyoming L 57-72 10%    
  Feb 22, 2022 130   Fresno St. L 58-63 34%    
  Feb 26, 2022 230   @ New Mexico L 66-71 33%    
  Mar 01, 2022 294   San Jose St. W 68-63 67%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.2 3.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 2.9 1.8 0.4 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.8 3.7 0.8 0.0 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 6.1 9.1 4.9 1.1 0.1 22.9 9th
10th 0.4 4.5 10.6 9.2 4.0 0.9 0.0 29.7 10th
11th 1.7 6.5 8.3 5.3 1.4 0.2 23.3 11th
Total 1.7 7.0 12.9 17.5 17.1 16.0 11.7 8.1 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 28.6% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.2% 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.3% 0.3
10-8 1.0% 1.0
9-9 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 2.4
8-10 4.2% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 4.1
7-11 8.1% 8.1
6-12 11.7% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 11.7
5-13 16.0% 16.0
4-14 17.1% 17.1
3-15 17.5% 17.5
2-16 12.9% 12.9
1-17 7.0% 7.0
0-18 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%