Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.0 348
Expected Predictive Rating -11.7 335
Pace 65.3 269
Improvement -5.4 352

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 352 C- D F D+ B-
Defense D 297 D C D+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 106 C 57% 188 +1.4 127
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 233 F+ 31% 352 -2.8 308
Three Pointers 42% 154 D+ 32% 259 -0.4 196
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 85 D+ -2.5 272
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 235
Second Chance F+ 22.5% 349 C+ 1.05 140 D 0.24 330
Turnovers F 21.3% 356
Freethrows C 0.30 193 F 64% 361 D+ 0.19 281
Total Offense F+ -8.9 352

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 135 D 13.7% 315
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 162 D- 8.6% 339
Three Pointers A- 94% 10 C+ 0.8% 154
Total B 62% 58 D- 7.4% 337

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 248 D 63% 316 +0.7 204
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 151 D 42% 320 +1.1 277
Three Pointers 42% 129 D+ 36% 265 +2.0 285
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 127 D +4.0 321
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 303
Second Chance C 30.6% 184 C- 1.05 228 C 0.32 211
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 287
Freethrows C- 0.32 218 B 70% 68 C 0.22 199
Total Defense D -4.1 297

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 184 D+ 8.1% 295
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 265 C+ 5.6% 122
Three Pointers C 83% 10 C- 0.6% 154
Total C 56% 194 D+ 4.4% 279

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.6 355 15.5 1
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 305 0.19 256
Improvement -1.7 #277 -3.7 #333

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 99% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 11.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 60 - 7
Quad 20 - 90 - 15
Quad 30 - 90 - 25
Quad 43 - 43 - 29


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 68 @Belmont L 63 - 79 2% -4  29% 0 - 1 D+ -5 D- -6 A+ C- F C+ +1 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 148 Austin Peay L 54 - 74 16% -10  0% 0 - 2 F -23 F -23 D- D F C+ +1 D- B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 204 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 76 24% -0  51% 0 - 3 D -10 D+ -3 C- C+ C- D- -7 C- D C+
 Sat, Nov 15 86 Miami (OH) L 61 - 76 7% -10  0% 0 - 4 D- -11 F -12 F D C C+ +0 D B+ C+
 Wed, Nov 19 306 Alabama St. W 66 - 64 44% -2  11% 1 - 4 D -10 F+ -10 C A+ F C+ +0 C+ A D
 Fri, Nov 21 236 SIU Edwardsville W 77 - 63 29% +8  98% 2 - 4 B- +7 C+ +3 D- A B- B +4 C+ C+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 324 IU Indianapolis W 98 - 85 52% +2  59% 3 - 4 C -0 C+ +3 A D C D -5 C F+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 156 Northern Colorado L 53 - 71 18% -5  17% 3 - 5 F -21 F -17 F+ C- F+ D -6 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 280 South Dakota L 63 - 80 28% -11  2% 3 - 6 F -24 F -15 F F D+ F+ -9 F+ D+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 120 Pacific L 65 - 80 12% -9  4% 3 - 7 F+ -15 C +0 C+ B D- F -17 C- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 163 @Navy L 56 - 61 8% +0  55% 3 - 8 C- -2 F -10 F+ D- C A- +7 B A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 43 @San Diego St. L 58 - 81 1% -8  17% 3 - 9 0 - 1 D -8 C- -1 C+ B D+ F+ -10 D F C
 Tue, Dec 30 104 Wyoming L 56 - 68 10% -5  7% 3 - 10 0 - 2 D -11 F -19 C F F A +9 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 124 @UNLV L 39 - 67 5% -15  0% 3 - 11 0 - 3 F -22 F -33 F F D A +8 A+ F C
 Tue, Jan 6 30 Utah St. L 62 - 99 2% -20  0% 3 - 12 0 - 4 F -25 D -5 C C+ B- F -22 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 47 New Mexico L 49 - 91 3% -21  5% 3 - 13 0 - 5 F -34 F -21 C+ F F F -13 D+ B- D+
 Tue, Jan 13 222 @San Jose St. L 62 - 70 12% -4  10% 3 - 14 0 - 6 D -8 D- -7 D+ D- F C- -3 D+ C- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 79 Nevada L 66 - 81 6% -10  21% 3 - 15 0 - 7 D -11 D- -7 A F D- D+ -4 F A A+
 Tue, Jan 20 100 @Colorado St. L 52 - 81 4% -17  2% 3 - 16 0 - 8 F -21 F -18 F F F D -5 D+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 60 @Boise St. L 54 - 96 2% -19  3% 3 - 17 0 - 9 F -30 F -10 C- D D- F -26 F F F
 Sat, Jan 31 134 Fresno St. L 62 - 79 14% -8  3% 3 - 18 0 - 10 F -18 F -14 D+ F+ F D+ -5 D A- F+
 Tue, Feb 3 58 @Grand Canyon L 57 - 81 2% -21  0% 3 - 19 0 - 11 D- -12 F+ -8 D+ B F D+ -4 F C- D
 Sat, Feb 7 43 San Diego St. L 54 - 88 3% -20  9% 3 - 20 0 - 12 F -25 F -14 B F F F -12 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 100 Colorado St. L 74 - 91 9% -8  14% 3 - 21 0 - 13 F+ -15 C+ +3 A+ F F F -19 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 134 @Fresno St. L 63 - 93 6% -17  0% 3 - 22 0 - 14 F -25 F -11 C- F F F -13 D- F F
 Tue, Feb 17 47 @New Mexico L 61 - 98 1% -18  1% 3 - 23 0 - 15 F -23 D- -8 D+ F B F -15 F D- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 124 UNLV L 68 - 81 12%
 Tue, Feb 24 222 San Jose St. L 65 - 72 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 104 @Wyoming L 61 - 81 3%
 Tue, Mar 3 58 Grand Canyon L 58 - 77 4%
 Sat, Mar 7 79 @Nevada L 57 - 80 1%
Totals 3 - 28 0 - 20 -13 F+ -9 F D+ B- D -4 D+ F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ C F+ D+ D+ 41% 33% 42% B- C- F+ C+ D F C F D+ D D D D+ D 36% 21% 42% C+ D C C- C D+ C- B C
0.96 57% 31% 32% -3 +1 0.98 23% 1.1 .24 21% .30 64% .19 1.14 63% 42% 36% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.1 .32 15% .32 70% .21
Nov
3		 Belmont D- A+ B B A+ 33% 23% 44% C- A+ B- D- C- F F+ B- D- C+ F A+ A A- 48% 10% 42% D+ B+ B- A+ A+ F F F F
0.95 79% 40% 37% +9 -1 1.19 35% 0.9 .30 35% .21 78% .16 1.19 74% 20% 30% +3 +2 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 12% .43 84% .36
Nov
8		 Austin Peay F B- F B- D- 32% 18% 50% C- D- B+ F D F A+ F D C+ D- F B- F+ 30% 23% 47% B+ D- C A+ B+ A+ F A+ F
0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16 1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31
Nov
11		 LIU Brooklyn D+ C F B+ D+ 53% 19% 28% C+ C- B C- C+ C- A+ F B D- B- B+ F D 41% 37% 22% A C- F A D C+ F A+ F
1.04 56% 11% 38% -4 +1 0.96 38% 1.0 .38 19% .44 60% .27 1.10 53% 33% 56% +3 -2 1.05 50% 0.8 .39 22% .65 54% .35
Nov
15		 Miami (OH) F F A+ D- F 48% 15% 37% A- F F A+ D C A+ F B+ C+ B F F D- 26% 20% 54% A- D F A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+
0.91 41% 57% 29% -8 +1 0.89 17% 1.2 .19 18% .40 64% .25 1.14 57% 64% 41% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.6 .19 16% .09 60% .05
Nov
19		 Alabama St. F+ D+ F A- C- 38% 8% 54% B- C F A+ A+ F A+ F B C+ C C A C+ 40% 22% 38% D+ C+ A+ C+ A D D- F F
0.99 57% 0% 40% +1 +2 1.08 25% 2.2 .54 26% .46 65% .30 0.96 55% 36% 26% -6 0 0.90 18% 0.8 .15 17% .34 79% .27
Nov
21		 SIU Edwardsville C+ F A+ D F 40% 14% 47% B+ D- C A+ A B- A+ C- A+ B D+ C- A+ C+ 32% 34% 34% B- C+ B+ D C+ C+ F B- F
1.12 35% 50% 30% -10 +1 0.84 33% 1.4 .47 15% .56 73% .41 0.92 60% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 19% .43 67% .29
Nov
23		 IU Indianapolis C+ B+ A+ A+ A 53% 5% 42% B+ A F A D C F A F D D+ A- B C+ 37% 17% 46% D- C D+ F F+ C F C- F
1.24 69% 67% 43% +13 +3 1.35 26% 1.4 .37 19% .27 82% .22 1.08 64% 30% 30% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.3 .40 16% .27 72% .20
Nov
26		 Northern Colorado F A+ F F D 31% 38% 31% F F+ F+ A+ C- F+ D- F F D F+ F F F 35% 16% 49% C F A+ B- A+ D A A+ A
0.87 87% 22% 13% -7 -3 0.83 18% 1.5 .27 16% .27 57% .16 1.16 71% 50% 42% +12 0 1.27 15% 1.0 .15 15% .15 63% .10
Nov
29		 South Dakota F F+ F F F 68% 7% 24% A F F A+ F D+ A+ C A+ F+ F F A+ F 45% 20% 35% C F+ F A+ D+ B+ F B F+
0.92 50% 0% 10% -17 +4 0.76 13% 1.5 .20 17% .62 74% .46 1.16 68% 60% 24% +4 0 1.10 49% 0.6 .31 20% .46 72% .33
Dec
3		 Pacific C A C F+ C+ 33% 21% 46% B C+ C- A+ B D- A+ F A+ F F F B+ D- 34% 38% 28% A+ C- F F F F F F F
1.07 69% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 23% 1.4 .33 18% .64 59% .38 1.31 69% 50% 31% +7 -3 1.11 44% 1.3 .56 12% .37 90% .33
Dec
7		 Navy F D C+ F F 27% 21% 52% C F+ F A+ D- C C+ F D A- B+ A D+ B 42% 29% 29% B- B A+ B- A+ F B+ F C-
0.88 54% 40% 24% -8 -1 0.83 17% 1.3 .22 17% .27 57% .15 0.96 50% 29% 36% -5 -1 0.90 18% 1.0 .18 13% .27 93% .25
Dec
17		 San Diego St. C- D C D+ C 35% 8% 58% A C+ D- A+ B D+ B- B- B- F+ D+ B- F D+ 47% 18% 35% F D F D F C B+ A A
0.91 50% 33% 30% -6 +1 0.93 21% 1.5 .32 23% .33 75% .25 1.27 65% 33% 41% +6 +1 1.16 39% 1.2 .48 17% .25 69% .17
Dec
30		 Wyoming F A+ F F D+ 60% 12% 28% A- C F F F F C+ F D- A A A+ C A+ 32% 12% 56% B- A+ C F F+ A+ F F F
0.82 73% 20% 8% -4 +3 1.00 14% 0.5 .07 28% .40 55% .22 0.99 46% 0% 35% -8 +1 0.88 36% 1.3 .45 29% .55 89% .49
Jan
3		 UNLV F F F F F 52% 8% 40% A+ F F D F D F F F A C+ B A+ A+ 50% 22% 28% C- A+ D- F F C C A+ B+
0.60 36% 25% 16% -23 +3 0.60 19% 1.0 .19 20% .25 46% .11 1.03 56% 36% 21% -7 +1 0.90 38% 1.1 .41 17% .37 55% .20
Jan
6		 Utah St. D B- F C C- 41% 20% 39% B C F A+ C+ B- B C+ B F C D D- C- 43% 13% 43% C+ C F F F F B A B+
0.94 58% 11% 33% -6 0 0.91 21% 1.6 .33 20% .36 74% .26 1.50 61% 43% 39% +5 +1 1.15 44% 2.2 .97 11% .29 65% .19
Jan
10		 New Mexico F C A+ F C 48% 15% 38% A C+ F+ F F F A F D F D- F D+ D 31% 9% 60% C+ D+ F A+ B- D+ B F+ C+
0.71 58% 67% 20% -4 +1 0.98 18% 0.7 .12 31% .36 47% .17 1.32 67% 60% 37% +7 +1 1.19 39% 0.7 .28 13% .27 81% .22
Jan
13		 San Jose St. D- B F C+ D+ 36% 17% 48% C- D+ D+ F+ D- F B B+ B+ C- D+ C+ D D+ 36% 26% 38% D D+ B F C- C- F C- F
1.01 67% 14% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 26% .33 80% .27 1.14 60% 36% 38% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.3 .36 15% .46 75% .34
Jan
17		 Nevada D- A- F A+ A+ 21% 21% 58% D- A F F F D- F A+ F D+ F D F F 40% 27% 33% C- F B- A+ A A+ C- F F
0.96 64% 18% 45% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.0 .00 20% .11 100% .11 1.18 67% 42% 53% +14 -1 1.29 32% 0.8 .24 22% .39 90% .36
Jan
20		 Colorado St. F A+ D F F 29% 13% 58% B F F F F F D A C- D F C D+ D+ 40% 17% 44% C- D+ A+ D+ A- F F+ A+ C-
0.80 79% 33% 14% -12 0 0.79 17% 0.7 .11 21% .23 75% .18 1.24 74% 38% 38% +9 +1 1.21 23% 1.1 .26 9% .39 65% .25
Jan
24		 Boise St. F F A B C- 34% 23% 43% C+ C- F+ A- D D- D- F F F D B- F F 43% 17% 40% C+ F F F F F D- A- D+
0.87 40% 50% 37% -2 -1 0.98 13% 1.3 .16 19% .22 55% .12 1.55 65% 33% 52% +13 +1 1.30 42% 1.5 .65 6% .43 72% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Fresno St. F D- F C+ D 40% 15% 45% B- D+ F+ F F+ F F+ D+ F+ D+ C F+ F+ F+ 28% 20% 52% B+ D A B+ A- F+ B- A+ B+
0.87 52% 13% 33% -6 +1 0.91 21% 0.9 .18 24% .18 70% .13 1.11 60% 45% 39% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 14% .28 65% .18
Feb
3		 Grand Canyon F+ F A+ F+ D 40% 19% 40% B+ D+ D+ A+ B F F A+ C- D+ F D- D+ F 48% 13% 38% F+ F C- C- C- D D+ A+ A
0.83 37% 56% 26% -10 0 0.83 22% 1.6 .34 26% .24 92% .22 1.18 72% 43% 35% +8 +2 1.21 34% 1.1 .38 15% .36 48% .17
Feb
7		 San Diego St. F B- F C B- 39% 14% 48% B+ B F D- F F D- D- D- F F F C+ F 36% 33% 31% B- F A+ D- A+ F A B+ A
0.77 59% 17% 33% -3 +1 0.98 14% 0.8 .10 31% .25 67% .17 1.25 86% 53% 33% +15 -2 1.28 16% 1.3 .20 9% .22 71% .16
Feb
10		 Colorado St. C+ A F A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% B+ A+ D- F F F A+ F C F F F F F 20% 20% 61% A F A+ A+ A+ F F D F
1.13 71% 29% 58% +19 +1 1.42 21% 0.5 .10 20% .42 45% .19 1.39 75% 50% 56% +26 -1 1.51 14% 0.0 .00 12% .63 81% .51
Feb
14		 Fresno St. F B F C- C 24% 22% 53% D C- F F F F C+ A B F F F B F 28% 28% 43% A+ D- C F F F F B+ F
0.86 67% 27% 31% -3 -1 0.94 18% 0.8 .15 25% .27 80% .22 1.28 73% 60% 30% +8 -2 1.15 29% 1.9 .55 12% .48 71% .34
Feb
17		 New Mexico D- C+ A+ F D 23% 17% 60% C+ D+ F C F B B F C F D F F F 44% 2% 54% F+ F F A- D- C+ F A+ D+
0.86 58% 56% 23% -7 -1 0.87 13% 1.0 .13 17% .32 63% .20 1.39 64% 100% 52% +18 +3 1.44 45% 0.9 .39 16% .40 63% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 2.0 0.3 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 60.4 33.3 3.9 0.1 97.7 12th
Total 60.4 33.3 5.8 0.4 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 5.8% 5.8
1-19 33.3% 33.3
0-20 60.4% 60.4
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 59.1%