Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.1 106
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 135
Pace 66.8 232
Improvement +10.8 1

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 159 C- B C- C+ C
Defense B- 70 B- C- A- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 102 D+ 55% 262 +0.4 163
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 87 C 38% 163 +1.0 121
Three Pointers 35% 299 C- 33% 233 -3.5 307
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 204 C- -1.9 247
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 243
Second Chance B+ 36.3% 36 C 1.02 181 B 0.37 61
Turnovers C- 18.0% 260
Freethrows C+ 0.31 152 C 73% 170 C+ 0.23 143
Total Offense C +0.1 159

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 47 D 13.5% 315
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 93 C 5.6% 221
Three Pointers C 85% 183 C 1.0% 210
Total B- 59% 96 D- 7.2% 329

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 297 B- 55% 97 -3.4 71
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 278 B+ 33% 24 -2.1 34
Three Pointers 48% 20 B- 32% 90 +2.2 286
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 192 B -3.3 56
1st FG Attempt B- 0.95 70
Second Chance D- 34.7% 327 B- 0.98 101 C- 0.34 250
Turnovers A- 20.7% 22
Freethrows C 0.30 176 D 75% 310 C 0.22 201
Total Defense B- +4.0 70

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 66% 365 B 15.0% 55
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 41% 350 C 5.2% 150
Three Pointers F 93% 361 C 0.9% 159
Total F 73% 363 C+ 6.5% 112

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 227 17.4 211
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 115 0.19 231
Improvement +3.5 #35 +7.4 #1

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 123 108 93
Conference Record 12 - 8 13 - 7 14 - 6
Conference Finish 4 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13% 14% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.7
.500 or above 98% 100% 91%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round13% 14% 9%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 6
Quad 35 - 79 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 252 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 71 87% +6  60% 1 - 0 B+ +12 C- -0 C- A F A +10 A B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 160 @Oregon St. L 73 - 76 55% -3  28% 1 - 1 C -0 C +0 B D- F C -1 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 351 @Chicago St. W 67 - 63 91% -2  33% 2 - 1 D+ -7 D- -7 F A+ D- C+ +1 D C- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 89 High Point L 80 - 90 41% -6  2% 2 - 2 C- -4 C+ +2 C- A+ D- D -5 D+ C+ B
 Sat, Nov 22 341 Southern Indiana W 84 - 73 93% +11  99% 3 - 2 C -1 C+ +2 B- D D- D+ -3 F C+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 177 @Robert Morris L 74 - 88 59% -13  0% 3 - 3 D- -12 C +1 D- A D+ F -14 D+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62 - 63 94% -5  8% 3 - 4 F+ -15 F -23 F D F A- +8 C D- B
 Sun, Dec 7 81 @Yale L 66 - 80 28% -4  33% 3 - 5 C- -4 D -4 F D+ B C -1 A+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 68 @Belmont L 84 - 87 25% +3  60% 3 - 6 0 - 1 B +8 A+ +19 A- B+ A+ F -12 F D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 17 90 Northern Iowa L 54 - 60 54% -2  36% 3 - 7 0 - 2 C- -3 F+ -8 F B+ B+ B +4 D+ C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 178 @Charlotte L 76 - 88 OT 59% +2  63% 3 - 8 D -10 D+ -3 C+ F+ F+ D- -7 B- B C-
 Thu, Jan 1 124 Murray St. L 77 - 81 67% +1  48% 3 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 D -5 D- B F+ C+ +1 A+ F B+
 Sun, Jan 4 161 @Valparaiso L 59 - 66 55% +1  49% 3 - 10 0 - 4 C- -4 D- -6 D B F C+ +1 B B- B
 Wed, Jan 7 128 Southern Illinois W 70 - 57 68% +8  88% 4 - 10 1 - 4 B+ +12 B- +5 F+ A+ A A +8 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 99 @Illinois St. W 63 - 59 OT 35% +1  52% 5 - 10 2 - 4 B+ +12 D- -6 F A+ F A+ +18 A+ C- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 90 @Northern Iowa W 69 - 61 31% +0  38% 6 - 10 3 - 4 A- +17 A- +10 A- B A+ A- +8 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 194 Drake W 74 - 67 81% +7  95% 7 - 10 4 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 F A C+ B +4 B- B+ C+
 Tue, Jan 20 298 Evansville W 76 - 49 91% +13  86% 8 - 10 5 - 4 A- +16 C +0 C B A- A+ +17 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 120 @Bradley W 85 - 70 43% +8  76% 9 - 10 6 - 4 A +21 A+ +18 A+ C A- B +4 C C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 211 Indiana St. W 76 - 74 83% +9  94% 10 - 10 7 - 4 C- -4 C +0 B D- C- D+ -4 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 128 @Southern Illinois W 68 - 66 46% -6  26% 11 - 10 8 - 4 B- +7 B- +4 F+ A+ F B- +3 C- A+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 124 @Murray St. L 74 - 81 44% -8  0% 11 - 11 8 - 5 C -1 D- -7 F+ B- C+ B+ +6 A- F A
 Fri, Feb 6 68 Belmont L 62 - 68 45% -9  0% 11 - 12 8 - 6 C -1 D- -7 C F C+ B+ +6 C A A+
 Thu, Feb 12 194 @Drake W 80 - 70 62% +4  76% 12 - 12 9 - 6 B +11 B+ +9 C- C- A- B- +3 C C- A-
 Sun, Feb 15 99 Illinois St. W 83 - 56 57% +13  79% 13 - 12 10 - 6 A+ +29 B +7 A A+ C A+ +21 A+ A A+
 Wed, Feb 18 298 @Evansville W 84 - 46 80% +16  97% 14 - 12 11 - 6 A+ +33 A+ +15 A+ B- F A+ +22 A+ C+ B
 Sat, Feb 21 161 Valparaiso W 72 - 65 75%
 Tue, Feb 24 120 Bradley W 73 - 69 66%
 Sun, Mar 1 211 @Indiana St. W 74 - 70 64%
Totals 16 - 13 13 - 7 +4 C +0 B+ C- C B- +4 C- C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C- C- 41% 46% 35% C C- B+ C B C- C+ C C+ B- B- B+ B- B 34% 18% 48% C B- D- B- C- A- C D C
1.09 55% 38% 33% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.0 .37 18% .31 73% .23 1.03 55% 33% 32% -3 0 0.95 35% 1.0 .34 21% .30 75% .24
Nov
3		 Detroit Mercy C- F D A+ C 35% 18% 47% D+ C- C A+ A F A+ A+ A+ A C C- A+ A+ 15% 25% 59% C- A F+ A+ B+ B+ D C+ D+
1.15 44% 33% 42% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.5 .50 20% .57 83% .47 0.90 56% 40% 23% -10 -2 0.78 39% 0.6 .22 19% .31 75% .23
Nov
7		 Oregon St. C B- A+ C- B 31% 10% 58% C B C- F D- F B+ A+ A+ C D- F D+ F 27% 20% 54% B D- F A F A+ F D+ F
1.06 60% 60% 32% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.8 .24 20% .38 86% .33 1.10 64% 50% 36% +6 -1 1.12 54% 1.1 .57 30% .52 80% .42
Nov
15		 Chicago St. D- C- F F F 53% 10% 38% B+ F A- A+ A+ D- A+ C- A+ C+ F C+ B D 33% 30% 37% D+ D F+ B C- C+ D C D
1.06 62% 25% 13% -11 +2 0.85 43% 1.4 .60 22% .57 75% .42 0.99 67% 36% 29% 0 -2 0.98 34% 0.8 .29 17% .31 75% .23
Nov
20		 High Point C+ A+ C- F C 33% 23% 44% D- C- A+ B- A+ D- A+ C- A+ D C+ A+ F D+ 39% 11% 50% C D+ D+ A- C+ B F D- F
1.10 81% 36% 24% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .55 25% .44 71% .31 1.23 59% 20% 41% +3 +1 1.11 34% 1.0 .34 16% .61 81% .49
Nov
22		 Southern Indiana C+ C A+ C- C+ 60% 13% 27% A- B- C+ F D D- A+ A+ A+ D+ F F A+ F+ 38% 9% 53% F F F+ A C+ B- D+ A+ A
1.14 59% 50% 33% +2 +2 1.11 35% 0.7 .26 19% .55 85% .47 0.99 64% 80% 23% -3 +2 0.98 35% 0.6 .21 19% .34 40% .13
Nov
26		 Robert Morris C F A+ B+ F 60% 10% 31% A D- A+ D+ A D+ A+ F A- F D A+ D- C- 43% 10% 47% F D+ F F F B D- F F
1.09 40% 50% 38% -8 +3 0.93 47% 0.9 .42 18% .59 58% .34 1.30 62% 0% 39% +1 +2 1.08 48% 1.4 .70 21% .30 81% .24
Dec
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F F D F F 61% 12% 27% A F B F D F B- D+ C+ A- D+ A+ C+ B- 46% 18% 36% F C D+ F D- B A A+ A+
0.86 43% 33% 15% -17 +3 0.73 40% 0.8 .33 24% .40 73% .29 0.87 61% 11% 33% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.1 .31 21% .21 50% .11
Dec
7		 Yale D F F+ A- F 37% 27% 37% D+ F B+ F D+ B B- A+ A C A A+ D+ A+ 35% 27% 38% A- A+ D- F F C- F D- F
1.01 28% 31% 39% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.8 .27 12% .30 88% .26 1.23 47% 15% 39% -7 -1 0.85 38% 1.5 .56 14% .50 82% .41
Dec
13		 Belmont A+ B- C- A+ A 20% 24% 56% D- A- A C B+ A+ D A+ B- F C- F F F 40% 5% 56% D+ F F A+ D+ A- F D F
1.32 60% 33% 43% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 13% .23 100% .23 1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 +2 1.47 44% 0.9 .40 22% .44 73% .32
Dec
17		 Northern Iowa F+ D F F F 48% 16% 36% B F B+ B B+ B+ D- F F+ B B- D F D- 21% 26% 52% A+ D+ F A+ C+ A+ C+ F D+
0.88 50% 13% 17% -17 +1 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 15% .21 64% .13 0.98 56% 45% 41% +7 -2 1.12 29% 0.8 .21 24% .24 82% .19
Dec
21		 Charlotte D+ F A+ A+ C+ 42% 19% 38% C+ C+ A- F F+ F+ B- D C+ D- B B- D B 45% 12% 43% D B- F A+ B C- F F F
1.07 41% 50% 45% +1 0 1.06 37% 0.6 .23 18% .36 67% .24 1.23 55% 33% 38% 0 +2 1.06 47% 0.6 .26 18% .60 86% .51
Jan
1		 Murray St. D D F A- D 42% 38% 21% F+ D- A D+ B F+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ B- A+ 35% 29% 37% A A+ F F F B+ D F F
1.05 50% 28% 40% -5 -2 0.88 44% 0.9 .41 20% .45 81% .36 1.10 44% 20% 32% -11 -1 0.77 43% 1.4 .62 19% .37 86% .32
Jan
4		 Valparaiso D- B+ B+ F D+ 36% 36% 29% F D B- B B F B+ F+ B- C+ A A+ F B 39% 34% 26% C B C+ B- B- B F F F
0.95 67% 40% 17% -4 -2 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 26% .37 65% .24 1.06 47% 15% 50% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.0 .30 18% .78 78% .61
Jan
7		 Southern Illinois B- F F F F 51% 15% 34% A- F+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F+ A- A B F B- C- 41% 25% 33% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 46% 29% 25% -12 +2 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 14% .40 64% .25 0.88 52% 62% 29% +1 0 1.04 17% 0.6 .10 23% .08 50% .04
Jan
10		 Illinois St. D- F C+ F F 40% 40% 19% D- F A- A+ A+ F F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 15% 58% C A+ D B+ C- C+ F F F
0.91 43% 38% 10% -13 -2 0.71 33% 1.7 .56 22% .20 91% .18 0.85 43% 13% 19% -21 0 0.60 32% 1.0 .32 17% .38 77% .30
Jan
13		 Northern Iowa A- A+ A- F A 45% 27% 29% C- A- F+ A+ B A+ B+ F C- A- C+ A- A+ A+ 39% 14% 48% C A+ F D+ F B+ F+ F F
1.10 73% 46% 21% +3 0 1.08 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 56% .18 0.97 59% 33% 14% -14 +1 0.75 33% 1.2 .39 18% .31 88% .27
Jan
17		 Drake C- F F C F 28% 23% 50% C- F B A A C+ A+ F+ A+ B A+ F A- B- 25% 25% 49% B+ B- C A+ B+ C+ C- A+ B
1.12 45% 22% 35% -6 -1 0.88 35% 1.2 .41 14% .66 63% .42 1.01 38% 69% 28% -1 -2 0.96 26% 0.8 .21 15% .32 56% .18
Jan
20		 Evansville C A A- F C 43% 29% 27% C- C C+ B+ B A- A- F C+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 25% 11% 64% F A+ F A+ B+ A+ B- F C-
1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21 0.73 45% 40% 25% -11 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21
Jan
24		 Bradley A+ A B A+ A+ 20% 43% 37% F A+ B- D C A- D A C B F F A C 34% 19% 47% D+ C B+ F C+ C- F+ B- D-
1.30 70% 43% 56% +16 -4 1.27 34% 0.9 .31 15% .29 81% .23 1.07 69% 44% 27% 0 0 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 14% .39 73% .28
Jan
27		 Indiana St. C C C A+ B 45% 24% 31% C+ B B- F D- C- A+ B A+ D+ F F C+ F 43% 7% 50% C F+ F F F A+ A A+ A+
1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26 1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Southern Illinois B- C- F F F 47% 16% 37% B+ F+ A+ C A+ F A+ A+ A+ B- A- A- F C 47% 26% 28% D C- A+ A+ A+ D+ F D- F
1.03 55% 29% 19% -11 +1 0.81 49% 1.0 .49 26% .53 81% .43 1.00 50% 33% 46% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.4 .06 15% .39 73% .29
Feb
3		 Murray St. D- F F C F+ 38% 25% 36% C- F+ D- A+ B- C+ A+ F A- B+ A+ F B A 35% 14% 51% C- A- C+ F F A D B- D+
0.99 43% 29% 35% -8 -1 0.85 27% 1.4 .38 16% .46 59% .27 1.08 44% 57% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.7 .53 21% .37 73% .27
Feb
6		 Belmont D- B- A+ F C+ 39% 27% 34% C- C B- F F C+ A F+ B+ B+ D+ A+ F D+ 21% 9% 70% A- C D+ A+ A A+ D A+ B-
0.98 59% 58% 20% -1 -1 0.98 35% 0.5 .18 17% .36 68% .25 1.07 67% 25% 43% +10 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 27% .35 56% .19
Feb
12		 Drake B+ C+ D A+ C+ 30% 37% 33% F C- B- F+ C- A- C+ A+ A+ B- B A+ F+ C+ 33% 17% 50% D+ C C+ D- C- A- C+ F D+
1.22 63% 30% 44% +4 -3 1.04 33% 0.8 .25 11% .31 94% .29 1.07 53% 25% 39% 0 0 1.02 25% 1.3 .31 18% .30 81% .24
Feb
15		 Illinois St. B A- A+ F A 48% 33% 19% C+ A A+ B- A+ C F F F A+ A D- A+ A+ 22% 17% 61% B- A+ A+ F A A+ A+ F A+
1.14 68% 47% 27% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 16% .13 50% .07 0.77 50% 44% 24% -10 -1 0.81 14% 1.4 .20 23% .11 83% .09
Feb
18		 Evansville A+ B D+ A+ A+ 28% 22% 50% C- A+ A D B- F F A F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 21% 19% 60% C- A+ A- F C+ B A+ A+ A+
1.30 64% 36% 60% +21 -1 1.42 41% 0.9 .38 23% .10 80% .08 0.71 80% 11% 18% -15 -1 0.70 16% 1.3 .22 22% .16 63% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 1.1 37.2 32.9 71.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 10.1 5.8 16.0 3rd
4th 0.2 8.4 8.6 4th
5th 1.4 0.9 2.3 5th
6th 1.5 1.5 6th
7th 0.4 0.4 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 3.6 20.5 43.0 32.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 0.1    0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 32.9% 15.7% 15.7% 12.1 0.4 3.9 0.9 0.0 27.8
13-7 43.0% 13.1% 13.1% 12.4 0.1 3.3 2.2 0.1 37.3
12-8 20.5% 8.4% 8.4% 12.9 0.4 1.0 0.3 18.8
11-9 3.6% 6.7% 6.7% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 12.4 87.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.2% 100.0% 12.1 7.4 75.4 16.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.0%
Lose Out 0.8%