Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#158
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#100
Pace68.4#219
Improvement-0.6#219

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#178
First Shot-0.9#194
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#159
Layup/Dunks-1.0#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#223
Freethrows-1.2#262
Improvement-2.0#327

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#138
First Shot+3.3#78
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#331
Layups/Dunks-1.4#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#17
Freethrows-0.6#224
Improvement+1.5#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 15.7% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.5 13.4
.500 or above 58.1% 85.2% 57.7%
.500 or above in Conference 72.7% 87.4% 72.4%
Conference Champion 11.6% 21.0% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.4% 2.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round8.6% 15.7% 8.5%
Second Round0.6% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 37 - 68 - 12
Quad 47 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 12 252 @Evansville W 77-72 59%     1 - 0 +2.8 +3.9 -1.2
  Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61-86 1%     1 - 1 +4.8 -2.8 +10.3
  Sun, Nov 23 100 Murray St. W 90-87 31%     2 - 1 +8.3 +10.2 -2.1
  Mon, Nov 24 77 George Washington L 79-92 25%     2 - 2 -5.8 +5.1 -10.6
  Tue, Nov 25 70 McNeese St. L 62-72 23%     2 - 3 -2.1 +8.0 -12.5
  Mon, Dec 1 107 UAB W 76-61 46%     3 - 3 +16.2 +7.6 +9.5
  Sun, Dec 7 69 Belmont L 62-83 32%     3 - 4 -16.0 -9.7 -6.2
  Wed, Dec 17 152 Kennesaw St. W 68-67 61%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -1.5 -5.8 +4.3
  Mon, Dec 29 8 @Houston L 57-80 2%    
  Fri, Jan 2 187 Louisiana Tech W 67-62 68%    
  Sun, Jan 4 122 Sam Houston St. W 78-77 53%    
  Thu, Jan 8 202 @UTEP L 68-69 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 127 @New Mexico St. L 68-73 32%    
  Wed, Jan 14 187 @Louisiana Tech L 64-65 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 254 Missouri St. W 71-63 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 236 @Jacksonville St. W 69-67 56%    
  Wed, Jan 28 102 Liberty L 70-72 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 145 Western Kentucky W 78-76 57%    
  Wed, Feb 4 182 Florida International W 79-74 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 284 @Delaware W 71-67 64%    
  Thu, Feb 12 152 @Kennesaw St. L 77-80 39%    
  Sat, Feb 14 145 @Western Kentucky L 75-79 37%    
  Wed, Feb 18 122 @Sam Houston St. L 75-80 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 284 Delaware W 74-64 81%    
  Thu, Feb 26 202 UTEP W 71-65 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 127 New Mexico St. W 71-70 54%    
  Thu, Mar 5 182 @Florida International L 76-77 46%    
  Sat, Mar 7 254 @Missouri St. W 68-66 58%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.0 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 11.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.7 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.2 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 5.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.0 4.8 7.4 9.7 11.9 12.9 12.9 11.6 9.3 6.6 4.1 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 97.3% 1.0    0.9 0.1
17-3 89.9% 1.9    1.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 73.1% 3.0    2.0 0.9 0.1
15-5 46.1% 3.0    1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0
14-6 19.4% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 6.9 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 41.6% 41.6% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.0% 31.3% 31.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
17-3 2.1% 28.6% 28.6% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.5
16-4 4.1% 21.9% 21.9% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.2
15-5 6.6% 19.1% 19.1% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.3
14-6 9.3% 14.5% 14.5% 13.1 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 8.0
13-7 11.6% 12.6% 12.6% 13.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 10.1
12-8 12.9% 8.9% 8.9% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.7
11-9 12.9% 5.9% 5.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 12.1
10-10 11.9% 3.1% 3.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 11.5
9-11 9.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.5 0.1 0.1 9.5
8-12 7.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.3
7-13 4.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.7
6-14 3.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.0
5-15 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-16 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 13.3 0.1 1.6 3.6 2.2 0.9 0.3 91.4 0.0%