Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.5 167
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 174
Pace 64.7 285
Improvement -4.1 329

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 165 B- D+ C+ D- D+
Defense C 179 C+ B- D+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 312 B- 61% 106 -2.0 257
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 148 C+ 40% 121 +0.9 128
Three Pointers 45% 108 B- 36% 76 +3.6 66
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.5 264 B- +3.0 82
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 103
Second Chance C- 29.5% 214 D- 0.89 334 D+ 0.26 284
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 138
Freethrows D 0.27 305 F+ 66% 346 D- 0.18 335
Total Offense C -0.1 165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 79 C+ 57% 149 -1.8 246
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 176 B 35% 59 +0.7 132
Three Pointers 37% 301 C 34% 183 +2.1 96
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 217 C+ -1.2 133
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 139
Second Chance B+ 25.9% 37 C- 1.05 228 B- 0.27 74
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 298
Freethrows C 0.31 207 D 75% 312 C- 0.23 238
Total Defense C -0.3 179

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 250 17.9 280
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 190 0.13 63
Improvement -1.0 #254 -3.2 #319

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 8% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 25% 41% 15%
.500 or above in Conference 56% 77% 42%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 2% 0% 3%
First Four1% 0% 1%
First Round6% 8% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 57 - 11
Quad 46 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 276 @Evansville W 77 - 72 63% +8  90% 1 - 0 C +1 C -0 B- F B- C+ +1 C- B D
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 1% -13  7% 1 - 1 C+ +4 D -6 C- C+ C- A +12 A+ B+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 111 Murray St. W 90 - 87 35% +3  76% 2 - 1 B- +6 B +6 C+ A B+ C +0 C B+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 79 George Washington L 79 - 92 23% -10  2% 2 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +3 B- A- D+ D- -8 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 87 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 27% +3  72% 2 - 3 C- -4 B- +4 B+ F A F+ -10 A+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 1 117 UAB W 76 - 61 49% +4  47% 3 - 3 A- +15 B +5 C A B- A +10 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 7 78 Belmont L 62 - 83 32% -8  13% 3 - 4 F+ -17 F -15 F C- A+ C- -2 B- B F
 Wed, Dec 17 157 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 61% +7  95% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C- -2 F+ -9 D- F F B+ +7 A B- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 5 @Houston L 60 - 69 2% -5  17% 4 - 5 A- +17 B+ +7 A+ D+ F B+ +8 A- A- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 213 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 70% +19  97% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A+ +31 A+ +30 A+ F A+ A- +8 C+ A- A-
 Sun, Jan 4 119 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 49% +5  72% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C +1 D- -6 B- F B+ B+ +7 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 239 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 53% +5  79% 6 - 6 3 - 1 C- -4 B- +4 C+ D- B- D- -8 C+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 168 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 39% +0  51% 7 - 6 4 - 1 B- +7 F -12 D- F B- A+ +19 A A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 14 213 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 48% +10  91% 7 - 7 4 - 2 C -1 F+ -9 D- B- D A- +8 A A F
 Sat, Jan 17 181 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 65% +0  41% 8 - 7 5 - 2 C -1 B +6 A+ A+ F D -7 C- C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 183 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 75 43% -9  2% 8 - 8 5 - 3 F+ -16 D- -6 D- D+ A- F -12 F A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 93 Liberty L 65 - 81 39% -12  4% 8 - 9 5 - 4 D- -14 D+ -3 D- A C F -13 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 161 Western Kentucky L 60 - 65 61% -1  41% 8 - 10 5 - 5 D -8 F -12 C- F+ C B- +3 D A+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 197 Florida International L 84 - 88 OT 68% -1  16% 8 - 11 5 - 6 D -9 D- -6 C+ F A+ C- -3 B- A F+
 Sat, Feb 7 273 @Delaware L 88 - 89 OT 61% -0  46% 8 - 12 5 - 7 C- -4 A +13 B- A+ C F -18 F D- C-
 Thu, Feb 12 157 @Kennesaw St. W 90 - 87 38% -3  15% 9 - 12 6 - 7 B- +6 A+ +15 A+ D D+ D- -9 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 14 161 @Western Kentucky L 71 - 74 39%
 Wed, Feb 18 119 @Sam Houston St. L 72 - 78 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 273 Delaware W 72 - 63 80%
 Thu, Feb 26 239 UTEP W 72 - 65 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 168 New Mexico St. W 73 - 70 61%
 Thu, Mar 5 197 @Florida International L 75 - 76 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 181 @Missouri St. L 68 - 70 42%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 10 +0 F +0 A+ B- D+ C+ +0 B- F+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- C+ B- B- 33% 22% 45% D+ B- C- D- D+ C+ D F+ D- C C+ B C C+ 42% 21% 37% C- C+ B+ C- B- D+ C D C-
1.08 61% 40% 36% +3 -1 1.07 30% 0.9 .26 16% .27 66% .18 1.09 57% 35% 34% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.1 .27 15% .31 75% .20
Nov
12		 Evansville C A+ A+ F B+ 27% 31% 42% F+ B- D- F F B- C F D C+ C- F+ A+ C- 44% 31% 25% D+ C- B+ C+ B D F C+ F
1.08 73% 65% 26% +8 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17 1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29
Nov
19		 Michigan D F+ F D+ C- 17% 31% 53% D+ C- C+ C C+ C- D+ B- C- A D- A A+ A+ 49% 13% 38% B- A+ A+ D- B+ B- D+ C D+
0.78 40% 22% 29% -12 -3 0.73 27% 0.9 .24 19% .19 75% .14 1.10 70% 29% 14% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.5 .46 17% .40 73% .29
Nov
23		 Murray St. B C- B B- C 54% 27% 19% B- C+ B+ B+ A B+ C- F F+ C F+ B C+ C- 36% 25% 38% A- C A+ F B+ F F A D-
1.19 53% 44% 36% 0 0 1.02 40% 1.2 .47 13% .27 56% .15 1.15 70% 36% 33% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.4 .30 11% .43 69% .30
Nov
24		 George Washington C+ A- C- C B 40% 24% 36% C- B- F A+ A- D+ A+ A A+ D- D A+ F F 51% 8% 42% D+ F A+ F+ A+ F F+ D- F
1.10 70% 33% 33% +3 0 1.08 19% 2.2 .41 20% .40 78% .31 1.28 67% 25% 50% +13 +3 1.34 15% 1.3 .19 13% .38 79% .30
Nov
25		 McNeese St. B- F A+ A+ A+ 19% 33% 49% F B+ B F F A F F F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 25% 33% B A+ F F F D- F F F
1.09 25% 50% 48% +8 -3 1.12 41% 0.5 .21 19% .31 57% .17 1.27 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.68 51% 1.4 .71 11% .49 92% .45
Dec
1		 UAB B C F B C 42% 23% 36% C+ C B- A+ A B- D A C- A A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 18% 46% C- A+ D F F A B+ F B-
1.15 59% 25% 37% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.3 .38 15% .21 83% .18 0.92 33% 33% 22% -18 0 0.66 37% 1.3 .46 17% .25 79% .20
Dec
7		 Belmont F F B F F 14% 27% 59% F F D- B+ C- A+ C- C- C- C- D- D- C+ C+ 46% 19% 35% B B- B C+ B F A A+ A+
0.88 38% 40% 18% -16 -3 0.64 26% 1.2 .30 11% .26 75% .19 1.18 69% 45% 35% +7 +1 1.18 24% 1.2 .30 11% .21 38% .08
Dec
17		 Kennesaw St. F+ C F C- D+ 29% 31% 40% F D- B+ F F F A+ C A+ B+ B A+ A+ A+ 56% 8% 35% F A F A+ B- B- D+ F F
0.98 54% 29% 33% -4 -2 0.89 37% 0.4 .15 20% .58 75% .43 0.97 52% 25% 18% -13 +3 0.81 43% 0.7 .31 19% .39 82% .32
Dec
29		 Houston B+ A+ A A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B- A+ A F D+ F F F F B+ F A+ A+ A 35% 33% 33% C- A- C A A- D+ D- F F
1.01 75% 43% 41% +11 0 1.24 39% 0.5 .21 32% .15 50% .07 1.16 88% 13% 27% -1 -2 0.96 39% 0.8 .31 10% .32 88% .28
Jan
2		 Louisiana Tech A+ A+ F A+ A+ 13% 8% 79% D+ A+ C F F A+ F F F A- C- D- A+ C+ 37% 24% 39% C+ C+ A+ B- A- A- F D F
1.51 100% 25% 58% +33 0 1.67 32% 0.6 .19 12% .16 25% .04 0.87 57% 44% 20% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.8 .19 22% .42 68% .29
Jan
4		 Sam Houston St. D- F C- A+ B+ 26% 30% 44% F B- F+ F F B+ F A+ F B+ A- F F C 51% 27% 22% C C B C B- A+ B- B B
1.00 43% 38% 46% +4 -2 1.06 23% 0.2 .05 15% .17 90% .15 0.98 48% 46% 45% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 25% .23 67% .16
Jan
8		 UTEP B- A+ F B B- 26% 30% 44% F+ C+ F B D- B- F A+ D+ D- D A D C 28% 40% 32% A- C+ F F F F+ F C- F
1.12 79% 25% 38% +4 -2 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 17% .29 88% .25 1.16 64% 25% 38% -2 -3 0.92 34% 1.3 .45 13% .58 69% .40
Jan
10		 New Mexico St. F B+ F F F+ 38% 23% 38% C+ D- F D- F B- B F D+ A+ B- C+ A+ A+ 27% 23% 50% C- A A+ A A+ B- F A+ D
0.91 67% 18% 22% -8 0 0.85 17% 1.0 .17 14% .43 63% .27 0.85 54% 36% 25% -8 -1 0.83 20% 0.8 .15 17% .41 59% .24
Jan
14		 Louisiana Tech F+ F F B- F+ 47% 16% 38% B- D- C+ B- B- D B- F F+ A- A- C A+ A+ 65% 15% 19% F A A+ B+ A F F F F
0.90 43% 14% 35% -10 +1 0.84 34% 1.2 .40 20% .35 50% .17 0.91 44% 38% 10% -16 +3 0.75 23% 0.7 .15 11% .36 76% .28
Jan
17		 Missouri St. B D- B A+ A+ 36% 14% 50% A+ A+ C A+ A+ F B B+ B+ D A- A+ F C 49% 18% 33% F C- D B C D- D- B+ C-
1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31 1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25
Jan
23		 Jacksonville St. D- F A D D- 40% 17% 43% C+ D- C- D- D+ A- D- F F F B A F F 60% 9% 32% F F B A+ A+ D- C F F+
0.95 42% 50% 30% -7 +1 0.89 28% 0.9 .25 13% .26 57% .15 1.23 50% 25% 60% +7 +3 1.21 26% 0.6 .15 15% .37 84% .31
Jan
29		 Liberty D+ F+ F C- D- 26% 24% 50% D D- B- A+ A C A F B F F+ F F F 52% 8% 40% C F A+ A+ A+ F A- C- B+
1.06 45% 30% 33% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.5 .51 18% .32 63% .20 1.32 70% 75% 48% +18 +3 1.42 0% 0.0 .00 8% .18 70% .12
Jan
31		 Western Kentucky F B A F D+ 40% 20% 40% B C- C- F F+ C A+ F B- B- B- D+ D+ D- 35% 19% 46% C D A+ A+ A+ D A+ F+ A
0.91 63% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.5 .14 18% .53 55% .29 0.98 47% 40% 36% -2 0 0.98 24% 0.4 .10 12% .17 80% .14
Feb
4		 Florida International D- A- A C- C+ 21% 7% 71% C C+ F F F A+ A+ D+ A+ C- B C F C+ 48% 34% 18% A- B- A A- A F+ F D+ F
1.02 67% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 22% 0.3 .07 15% .47 70% .33 1.07 52% 37% 40% -2 -1 0.96 25% 0.9 .23 13% .52 70% .37
Feb
7		 Delaware A A+ A+ D A- 11% 30% 59% F B- A+ A+ A+ C B+ F C+ F D+ B F F 35% 7% 59% F F C- F D- C- F F F
1.28 83% 63% 31% +8 -3 1.11 42% 1.3 .53 15% .32 68% .22 1.30 63% 33% 52% +17 +2 1.39 22% 1.2 .26 18% .37 90% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Kennesaw St. A+ A A+ A+ A+ 44% 15% 42% C+ A+ C F D D+ A A A+ D- C F D- D- 43% 7% 50% D D- B+ F F F C+ A B
1.28 67% 57% 45% +13 +1 1.31 31% 0.8 .23 17% .48 82% .40 1.24 57% 50% 37% +3 +2 1.11 29% 1.7 .50 11% .34 62% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.0 3.1 1.1 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.9 7.3 3.6 0.2 12.0 3rd
4th 0.1 5.9 8.0 0.6 14.7 4th
5th 1.8 11.4 2.6 0.0 15.9 5th
6th 0.1 7.7 7.7 0.2 15.7 6th
7th 1.8 11.2 1.8 0.0 14.9 7th
8th 0.2 6.0 4.5 0.1 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.0 0.3 6.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 1.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.1 0.3 12th
Total 0.6 4.1 14.0 25.7 27.8 19.2 7.4 1.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.3% 16.6% 16.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-8 7.4% 15.2% 15.2% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 6.3
11-9 19.2% 9.8% 9.8% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.5 17.3
10-10 27.8% 5.3% 5.3% 14.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 26.3
9-11 25.7% 3.1% 3.1% 15.6 0.3 0.5 24.9
8-12 14.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.4 13.6
7-13 4.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.0
6-14 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 14.4 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.6 2.4 40.5 50.0 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.3%