Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.7 171
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 185
Pace 65.0 274
Improvement -4.3 335

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 167 C+ D+ C+ F+ D+
Defense C 186 C+ B- D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 313 B- 61% 98 -1.8 249
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 216 C+ 40% 109 +1.1 115
Three Pointers 44% 121 C+ 35% 119 +2.6 93
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 266 B- +2.4 94
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 115
Second Chance C- 29.5% 208 D- 0.91 327 D+ 0.27 278
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 126
Freethrows D- 0.25 330 F+ 66% 344 F+ 0.17 349
Total Offense C -0.2 167

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 199 A- 6.7% 18
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 251 C+ 4.6% 152
Three Pointers C 84% 189 B- 0.6% 116
Total C 55% 196 A- 3.6% 14

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 72 C 57% 170 +2.3 261
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 192 B 34% 58 -0.9 114
Three Pointers 37% 293 C 34% 169 -2.1 89
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 235 C+ -1.1 133
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.01 148
Second Chance B 26.2% 46 C- 1.07 243 B- 0.28 84
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 279
Freethrows C- 0.32 221 D- 76% 348 D+ 0.24 267
Total Defense C -0.5 186

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 72 C+ 12.9% 96
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 85 C+ 6.3% 89
Three Pointers C- 86% 232 B+ 1.9% 38
Total B- 52% 100 B 7.5% 53

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.9 245 17.9 280
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 217 0.13 51
Improvement -1.3 #252 -3.1 #320

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 206 170 138
Conference Record 7 - 13 9 - 11 11 - 9
Conference Finish 10 6 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.6
.500 or above 10% 12% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 33% 40% 8%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 6% 2% 21%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round5% 6% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 77.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 57 - 12
Quad 46 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 298 @Evansville W 77 - 72 66% +8  90% 1 - 0 C +0 C- -1 B- F B- C+ +1 C- B D
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 1% -13  7% 1 - 1 B- +5 D -6 C- C C- A+ +13 A+ B+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 124 Murray St. W 90 - 87 37% +3  76% 2 - 1 B- +6 B +6 C+ A B+ C -1 C B+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 80 George Washington L 79 - 92 23% -10  2% 2 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +2 B- A- D F+ -8 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 83 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 23% +3  72% 2 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 B+ F A F+ -9 A+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 1 123 UAB W 76 - 61 48% +4  47% 3 - 3 A- +15 B +6 C A B- A +10 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 7 68 Belmont L 62 - 83 28% -8  13% 3 - 4 F+ -16 F -14 F C- A+ C- -2 B- B F
 Wed, Dec 17 165 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 60% +7  95% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C- -2 F -10 F+ F F A- +8 A C+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 6 @Houston L 60 - 69 2% -5  17% 4 - 5 A- +16 B +7 A+ C- F A- +8 A- A- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 218 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 71% +19  97% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A+ +31 A+ +30 A+ F A+ A- +8 B- B+ A-
 Sun, Jan 4 114 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 47% +5  72% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C +1 D- -6 B- F B A- +7 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 246 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 53% +5  79% 6 - 6 3 - 1 C- -5 B- +4 C+ D- B- F+ -8 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 157 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 36% +0  51% 7 - 6 4 - 1 B- +7 F -12 D- F B- A+ +19 A A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 218 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 48% +10  91% 7 - 7 4 - 2 C -1 F+ -9 D- B- D A- +8 A A F
 Sat, Jan 17 202 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 68% +0  41% 8 - 7 5 - 2 C- -2 B- +5 A+ A+ F D- -7 D+ C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 200 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 75 45% -9  2% 8 - 8 5 - 3 F+ -16 D- -7 D- D+ A- F -12 F A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 100 Liberty L 65 - 81 39% -12  4% 8 - 9 5 - 4 D- -14 D+ -3 F+ A C F -13 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 168 Western Kentucky L 60 - 65 61% -1  41% 8 - 10 5 - 5 D -9 F -13 C- F C B +4 D A+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 185 Florida International L 84 - 88 OT 65% -1  16% 8 - 11 5 - 6 D -9 D -6 C+ F A+ C- -2 B- A F+
 Sat, Feb 7 263 @Delaware L 88 - 89 OT 58% -0  46% 8 - 12 5 - 7 C- -4 A +13 B A+ C F -17 F D- C-
 Thu, Feb 12 165 @Kennesaw St. W 90 - 87 37% -3  15% 9 - 12 6 - 7 B- +6 A +14 A+ D D+ F+ -8 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 14 168 @Western Kentucky L 80 - 82 38% -3  25% 9 - 13 6 - 8 C +0 B +6 C A+ C+ D -6 F C A
 Wed, Feb 18 114 @Sam Houston St. L 70 - 78 26% -7  0% 9 - 14 6 - 9 C- -2 D+ -3 D+ F A+ C+ +1 B+ D+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 263 Delaware W 72 - 64 78%
 Thu, Feb 26 246 UTEP W 72 - 65 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 157 New Mexico St. W 73 - 71 59%
 Thu, Mar 5 185 @Florida International L 75 - 77 42%
 Sat, Mar 7 202 @Missouri St. L 70 - 71 46%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 11 -1 C +0 F B- D+ C +0 C+ F+ F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- C+ C+ B- 34% 35% 44% D+ C+ C- D- D+ C+ D- F+ F+ C C B C C+ 43% 20% 37% C- C+ B C- B- D+ C- D- D+
1.08 61% 40% 35% +2 -1 1.06 29% 0.9 .27 16% .25 66% .17 1.09 57% 34% 34% -1 0 1.01 26% 1.1 .28 15% .32 76% .19
Nov
12		 Evansville C- A+ A+ F B 27% 31% 42% D- B- D- F F B- C+ F D C+ C- F+ A+ C- 44% 31% 25% D+ C- B B- B D F C+ F
1.08 73% 65% 26% +7 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17 1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29
Nov
19		 Michigan D F+ F D+ C- 17% 31% 53% D+ C- C+ C- C C- D+ B- C- A+ D- A A+ A+ 49% 13% 38% B- A+ A+ F+ B+ B- D+ C C-
0.78 40% 22% 29% -12 -3 0.73 27% 0.9 .24 19% .19 75% .14 1.10 70% 29% 14% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.5 .46 17% .40 73% .29
Nov
23		 Murray St. B C- B B- C 54% 27% 19% C+ C+ B+ B+ A B+ C- F F+ C F+ B C+ C- 36% 25% 38% B+ C A+ F B+ F F A- D-
1.19 53% 44% 36% 0 0 1.02 40% 1.2 .47 13% .27 56% .15 1.15 70% 36% 33% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.4 .30 11% .43 69% .30
Nov
24		 George Washington C+ A- C- C B- 40% 24% 36% C- B- F A+ A- D A+ A A+ F+ D A+ F F 51% 8% 42% D+ F A+ F+ A+ F F+ D- F
1.10 70% 33% 33% +3 0 1.08 19% 2.2 .41 20% .40 78% .31 1.28 67% 25% 50% +13 +3 1.34 15% 1.3 .19 13% .38 79% .30
Nov
25		 McNeese St. B- F A+ A+ A+ 19% 33% 49% F B+ B+ F F A F F F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 25% 33% B- A+ F F F D- F F F
1.09 25% 50% 48% +8 -3 1.12 41% 0.5 .21 19% .31 57% .17 1.27 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.68 51% 1.4 .71 11% .49 92% .45
Dec
1		 UAB B C F B C 42% 23% 36% C C B- A+ A B- D+ A+ C A A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 18% 46% C- A+ D- F F A B+ F B-
1.15 59% 25% 37% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.3 .38 15% .21 83% .18 0.92 33% 33% 22% -18 0 0.66 37% 1.3 .46 17% .25 79% .20
Dec
7		 Belmont F F B F F 14% 27% 59% F F D- A- C- A+ C- C C- C- D- D- C+ C+ 46% 19% 35% B B- B C+ B F A+ A+ A+
0.88 38% 40% 18% -16 -3 0.64 26% 1.2 .30 11% .26 75% .19 1.18 69% 45% 35% +7 +1 1.18 24% 1.2 .30 11% .21 38% .08
Dec
17		 Kennesaw St. F C- F D+ D 29% 31% 40% F F+ B+ F F F A+ C A+ A- B- A A+ A+ 56% 8% 35% F A F A+ C+ B D F F
0.98 54% 29% 33% -5 -2 0.89 37% 0.4 .15 20% .58 75% .43 0.97 52% 25% 18% -13 +3 0.81 43% 0.7 .31 19% .39 82% .32
Dec
29		 Houston B A+ A A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B- A+ A+ F C- F F F F A- F A+ A+ A 35% 33% 33% C- A- C A+ A- D+ D- F F
1.01 75% 43% 41% +11 0 1.24 39% 0.5 .21 32% .15 50% .07 1.16 88% 13% 27% -1 -2 0.96 39% 0.8 .31 10% .32 88% .28
Jan
2		 Louisiana Tech A+ A+ F A+ A+ 13% 8% 79% D+ A+ C F F A+ F F F A- C- D- A+ B- 37% 24% 39% B- B- A C+ B+ A- F D- F
1.51 100% 25% 58% +33 0 1.67 32% 0.6 .19 12% .16 25% .04 0.87 57% 44% 20% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.8 .19 22% .42 68% .29
Jan
4		 Sam Houston St. D- F C A+ B+ 26% 30% 44% F B- D- F F B F A+ F A- A- F F C 51% 27% 22% C+ C B C B- A+ B- B+ B
1.00 43% 38% 46% +4 -2 1.06 23% 0.2 .05 15% .17 90% .15 0.98 48% 46% 45% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 25% .23 67% .16
Jan
8		 UTEP B- A+ F B B- 26% 30% 44% F+ C+ F B D- B- F A+ C- F+ D A D C 28% 40% 32% A- C+ F F F F F C- F
1.12 79% 25% 38% +4 -2 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 17% .29 88% .25 1.16 64% 25% 38% -2 -3 0.92 34% 1.3 .45 13% .58 69% .40
Jan
10		 New Mexico St. F A- F F D- 38% 23% 38% C D- F F+ F B- B+ F C- A+ B- C+ A+ A 27% 23% 50% C A A+ A A+ B F A+ D
0.91 67% 18% 22% -8 0 0.85 17% 1.0 .17 14% .43 63% .27 0.85 54% 36% 25% -8 -1 0.83 20% 0.8 .15 17% .41 59% .24
Jan
14		 Louisiana Tech F+ F F B- F+ 47% 16% 38% B D- C+ B B- D B- F F+ A- A C A+ A+ 65% 15% 19% F A A+ B+ A F F F F
0.90 43% 14% 35% -10 +1 0.84 34% 1.2 .40 20% .35 50% .17 0.91 44% 38% 10% -16 +3 0.75 23% 0.7 .15 11% .36 76% .28
Jan
17		 Missouri St. B- F+ B A+ A 36% 14% 50% A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F B B B+ D- A- A+ F C 49% 18% 33% F D+ D B+ C D- D- B C-
1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31 1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25
Jan
23		 Jacksonville St. D- F A+ D F+ 40% 17% 43% C D- C F+ D+ A- D- F F F B- A F F 60% 9% 32% F F B A+ A+ D C- F F
0.95 42% 50% 30% -7 +1 0.89 28% 0.9 .25 13% .26 57% .15 1.23 50% 25% 60% +7 +3 1.21 26% 0.6 .15 15% .37 84% .31
Jan
29		 Liberty D+ F+ F C- D- 26% 24% 50% D F+ B- A+ A C A F B- F F+ F F F 52% 8% 40% C- F A+ A+ A+ F A C- B+
1.06 45% 30% 33% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.5 .51 18% .32 63% .20 1.32 70% 75% 48% +18 +3 1.42 0% 0.0 .00 8% .18 70% .12
Jan
31		 Western Kentucky F B A F D+ 40% 20% 40% B C- C- F F C A+ F B- B B D+ D+ D 35% 19% 46% C D A+ A+ A+ D A+ D- A+
0.91 63% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.5 .14 18% .53 55% .29 0.98 47% 40% 36% -2 0 0.98 24% 0.4 .10 12% .17 80% .14
Feb
4		 Florida International D A- A C- C+ 21% 7% 71% C C+ F F F A+ A+ D+ A+ C- B C F+ C+ 48% 34% 18% A B- A B+ A F+ F D+ F
1.02 67% 50% 33% +1 +1 1.05 22% 0.3 .07 15% .47 70% .33 1.07 52% 37% 40% -2 -1 0.96 25% 0.9 .23 13% .52 70% .37
Feb
7		 Delaware A A+ A+ D A- 11% 30% 59% F B A+ A+ A+ C B F C F D+ B F F 35% 7% 59% F F C- F D- C- F F F
1.28 83% 63% 31% +8 -3 1.11 42% 1.3 .53 15% .32 68% .22 1.30 63% 33% 52% +17 +2 1.39 22% 1.2 .26 18% .37 90% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Kennesaw St. A A A+ A+ A+ 44% 15% 42% C+ A+ C+ F D D+ A- A A+ F+ C F D D- 43% 7% 50% D- D- B+ F F F C+ A B
1.28 67% 57% 45% +13 +1 1.31 31% 0.8 .23 17% .48 82% .40 1.24 57% 50% 37% +3 +2 1.11 29% 1.7 .50 11% .34 62% .21
Feb
14		 Western Kentucky B A+ B- F C 34% 25% 41% C C B+ A+ A+ C+ F C- F D F D+ D+ F 40% 12% 48% D- F A+ F C A F F F
1.13 79% 43% 22% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.2 .44 17% .22 69% .15 1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.12 21% 1.5 .32 20% .56 88% .49
Feb
18		 Sam Houston St. D+ C+ B F C- 31% 28% 41% D- D+ F F F A+ F F F C+ C+ A+ C+ A 56% 17% 28% F+ B+ D C D+ F+ C+ F D-
1.01 61% 44% 25% -3 -1 0.93 21% 0.8 .16 9% .24 53% .13 1.12 57% 11% 33% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.0 .39 13% .25 93% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 4.9 8.6 3rd
4th 0.8 9.3 2.4 12.6 4th
5th 5.8 8.5 0.4 14.7 5th
6th 0.1 13.3 3.1 0.0 16.6 6th
7th 2.6 12.0 0.4 14.9 7th
8th 0.0 9.5 2.9 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.9 8.8 0.1 9.8 9th
10th 0.0 3.0 2.2 5.2 10th
11th 0.3 3.2 0.1 3.6 11th
12th 0.8 0.6 1.4 12th
Total 1.1 7.7 23.3 34.9 25.1 7.9 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 7.9% 12.8% 12.8% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 6.9
10-10 25.1% 7.9% 7.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.0 23.1
9-11 34.9% 3.6% 3.6% 15.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 33.7
8-12 23.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 22.5
7-13 7.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 7.5
6-14 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.9 94.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 13.6 1.3 42.2 50.2 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7%
Lose Out 0.6%