Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.3 #137
Expected Predictive Rating +4.7 #105
Pace 67.2 #245
Improvement +0.7 #140

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #163 C+ D C- C D
Defense #121 A- C- B- D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #315 1.28 #68 -1.3 #226
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #86 0.86 #66 +3.2 #49
Three Pointers 42% #169 1.01 #185 +0.5 #161
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #114 +2.3 #118
Freethrows 15.8 #269 68% #304 10.7 #281
Second Chance 33.2% #109 0.88 #333 0.29 #234
Turnovers 16.6% #175
Total Offense +0.0 #163

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.15 #163 -1.8 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #106 0.59 #22 +1.0 #114
Three Pointers 36% #314 0.78 #9 +7.0 #9
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #33 +6.3 #32
Freethrows 17.6 #203 76% #317 13.4 #243
Second Chance 28.2% #104 1.02 #169 0.29 #112
Turnovers 14.9% #287
Total Defense +1.3 #121

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #300 0% #162
Shot Type Make Effect 6.8% #87 -12.2% #24
Possession Length 18.1 #265 18.1 #306
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #236 0.10 #22
Improvement -1.1 #261 +1.7 #72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 12.1% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 67.4% 75.1% 50.0%
.500 or above in Conference 80.7% 86.8% 67.0%
Conference Champion 16.3% 20.4% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.6% 2.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round10.9% 12.1% 8.3%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 69.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 37 - 69 - 12
Quad 48 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 12 250 @Evansville W 77-72 62%     7.6   1 - 0 +3.1 +3.8 -0.9
  Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61-86 1%     -12.7   1 - 1 +5.5 -2.5 +10.7
  Sun, Nov 23 100 Murray St. W 90-87 34%     2.7   2 - 1 +8.4 +10.2 -2.0
  Mon, Nov 24 67 George Washington L 79-92 25%     -10.0   2 - 2 -4.8 +4.2 -8.7
  Tue, Nov 25 81 McNeese St. L 62-72 28%     3.2   2 - 3 -2.8 +7.7 -12.7
  Mon, Dec 1 108 UAB W 76-61 51%     3.6   3 - 3 +15.9 +7.3 +9.5
  Sun, Dec 7 79 Belmont L 62-83 38%     -7.7   3 - 4 -16.6 -9.9 -6.6
  Wed, Dec 17 151 Kennesaw St. W 68-67 65%     7.0   4 - 4 1 - 0 -1.6 -5.8 +4.2
  Mon, Dec 29 11 @Houston L 60-69 4%     -4.6   4 - 5 +13.4 +9.0 +2.9
  Fri, Jan 2 172 Louisiana Tech W 68-63 69%    
  Sun, Jan 4 124 Sam Houston St. W 78-76 58%    
  Thu, Jan 8 213 @UTEP W 69-67 56%    
  Sat, Jan 10 125 @New Mexico St. L 68-72 35%    
  Wed, Jan 14 172 @Louisiana Tech L 65-66 48%    
  Sat, Jan 17 225 Missouri St. W 70-62 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 211 @Jacksonville St. W 68-67 55%    
  Wed, Jan 28 104 Liberty L 70-71 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 155 Western Kentucky W 78-74 65%    
  Wed, Feb 4 185 Florida International W 80-74 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 298 @Delaware W 71-65 71%    
  Thu, Feb 12 151 @Kennesaw St. L 76-78 43%    
  Sat, Feb 14 155 @Western Kentucky L 75-77 43%    
  Wed, Feb 18 124 @Sam Houston St. L 75-79 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 298 Delaware W 74-62 86%    
  Thu, Feb 26 213 UTEP W 72-64 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 125 New Mexico St. W 71-69 58%    
  Thu, Mar 5 185 @Florida International L 76-77 49%    
  Sat, Mar 7 225 @Missouri St. W 67-65 59%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.3 4.0 4.4 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 16.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.5 4.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.4 5.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.6 0.2 6.7 7th
8th 0.4 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.7 3.1 5.7 7.5 10.7 12.5 13.6 13.2 11.0 8.8 5.8 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 97.0% 1.3    1.3 0.1
17-3 92.3% 3.1    2.6 0.5
16-4 76.2% 4.4    3.1 1.2 0.1
15-5 45.7% 4.0    1.9 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 21.2% 2.3    0.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.0% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.3% 16.3 9.9 5.0 1.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.4% 46.3% 46.3% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
18-2 1.4% 28.1% 28.1% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
17-3 3.4% 28.0% 28.0% 12.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.4
16-4 5.8% 27.4% 27.4% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 4.2
15-5 8.8% 19.4% 19.4% 12.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.1
14-6 11.0% 17.0% 17.0% 13.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 9.1
13-7 13.2% 13.7% 13.7% 13.3 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 11.4
12-8 13.6% 7.3% 7.3% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 12.6
11-9 12.5% 5.8% 5.8% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 11.7
10-10 10.7% 3.1% 3.1% 14.6 0.1 0.2 10.4
9-11 7.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.3 0.1 0.1 7.3
8-12 5.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 5.5
7-13 3.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 3.0
6-14 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-15 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.0 2.3 0.8 0.3 89.0 0.0%