Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #152
Expected Predictive Rating +1.6 #138
Pace 65.1 #281
Improvement -3.3 #313

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #189 C+ D+ C+ F+ D+
Defense #128 B- B- D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #313 1.20 #122 -2.2 #263
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #121 0.75 #185 +0.9 #122
Three Pointers 43% #137 1.12 #53 +3.4 #69
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #121 +2.1 #120
Freethrows 0.24 #338 67% #335 0.16 #350
Second Chance 29.7% #213 0.91 #335 0.27 #277
Turnovers 15.8% #135
Total Offense -0.7 #189

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #62 1.13 #136 -1.9 #246
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #147 0.67 #53 +0.6 #146
Three Pointers 35% #327 0.95 #87 +4.1 #38
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #93 +2.7 #90
Freethrows 0.30 #187 74% #280 0.22 #217
Second Chance 25.8% #35 1.05 #186 0.27 #73
Turnovers 14.9% #278
Total Defense +1.2 #128

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #282 0.4% #205
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.6% #83 -5.6% #72
Possession Length 18.1 #253 18.0 #279
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #231 0.12 #40
Improvement -2.9 #326 -0.4 #213

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 10.2% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 63.7% 73.4% 45.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.3% 91.3% 71.0%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round8.8% 10.2% 6.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 37 - 68 - 12
Quad 48 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 267 @Evansville W 77 - 72 63% +8  1 - 0 +2 +4 B+ F C+ -2 C- B D-
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 1% -13  1 - 1 +3 -4 C- C C- +9 A+ A- B
 Sun, Nov 23 101 Murray St. W 90 - 87 34% +3  2 - 1 +8 +10 C+ A- B+ -2 C B F+
 Mon, Nov 24 65 George Washington L 79 - 92 22% -10  2 - 2 -4 +6 B- B+ D+ -10 F A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 25 81 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 26% +3  2 - 3 -3 +6 B+ F A -11 A+ F D
 Mon, Dec 1 119 UAB W 76 - 61 53% +4  3 - 3 +15 +7 C A- B- +8 A+ F+ A
 Sun, Dec 7 78 Belmont L 62 - 83 35% -8  3 - 4 -17 -11 F C- A+ -6 C+ B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 154 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 62% +7  4 - 4 1 - 0 -2 -6 D- F F +5 A+ C+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 4 @Houston L 60 - 69 2% -5  4 - 5 +15 +10 A+ D+ F +4 A- A D+
 Fri, Jan 2 210 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 73% +19  5 - 5 2 - 0 +31 +33 A+ F A +6 C+ A- A
 Sun, Jan 4 112 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 51% +5  6 - 5 3 - 0 +1 -3 B F B+ +5 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 266 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 63% +5  6 - 6 3 - 1 -6 +5 D+ F+ C+ -11 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 156 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 39% +0  7 - 6 4 - 1 +7 -9 F+ F B- +17 A- A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 210 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 52% +10  7 - 7 4 - 2 -1 -7 D C+ D- +6 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 179 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 69% +0  8 - 7 5 - 2 -2 +8 A+ A+ F -10 C- C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 182 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 75 47% -9  8 - 8 5 - 3 -16 -4 D- D+ B+ -14 F A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 90 Liberty L 65 - 81 40% -12  8 - 9 5 - 4 -13 +0 D A- C -16 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 168 Western Kentucky W 74 - 70 65%
 Wed, Feb 4 184 Florida International W 78 - 73 70%
 Sat, Feb 7 279 @Delaware W 68 - 64 65%
 Thu, Feb 12 154 @Kennesaw St. L 75 - 78 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 168 @Western Kentucky L 71 - 73 43%
 Wed, Feb 18 112 @Sam Houston St. L 71 - 77 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 279 Delaware W 71 - 61 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 266 UTEP W 72 - 63 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 156 New Mexico St. W 72 - 69 62%
 Thu, Mar 5 184 @Florida International L 75 - 76 48%
 Sat, Mar 7 179 @Missouri St. L 67 - 68 47%
Totals 14 - 14 11 - 9 +0 -1 C+ D+ C+ +1 B- B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.2 3.3 8.1 6.8 2.3 0.5 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.8 10.6 6.4 1.3 0.0 22.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 9.4 5.8 0.7 0.0 17.8 4th
5th 0.4 6.4 6.0 0.8 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 6.2 1.1 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.5 4.1 1.9 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 2.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.5 9.6 16.6 20.7 20.4 15.3 8.3 2.5 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 12.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 6.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.5% 29.1% 29.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-5 2.5% 19.6% 19.6% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.0
14-6 8.3% 19.3% 19.3% 12.9 0.5 0.9 0.2 6.7
13-7 15.3% 14.3% 14.3% 13.1 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 13.1
12-8 20.4% 9.8% 9.8% 13.6 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 18.4
11-9 20.7% 6.6% 6.6% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 19.3
10-10 16.6% 4.2% 4.2% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 15.9
9-11 9.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.6 0.1 0.2 9.3
8-12 4.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.4
7-13 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 13.5 91.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.1 6.7 76.7 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%