Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#181
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#113
Pace71.6#110
Improvement+0.1#156

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#258
First Shot-4.8#310
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#66
Layup/Dunks-3.5#298
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#264
Freethrows+2.0#63
Improvement-0.3#222

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#111
First Shot+1.6#120
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#173
Layups/Dunks+1.5#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#82
Freethrows-4.0#343
Improvement+0.5#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.1% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 64.7% 66.7% 38.3%
.500 or above in Conference 52.9% 54.1% 37.7%
Conference Champion 2.9% 3.0% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 4.6% 6.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round3.0% 3.1% 1.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 93.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 411 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 344   Bethune-Cookman W 71-51 92%     1 - 0 +3.6 -2.3 +8.2
  Nov 16, 2021 146   Winthrop W 76-65 52%     2 - 0 +9.5 -2.8 +11.7
  Nov 19, 2021 158   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-87 33%     2 - 1 -9.5 -4.1 -4.1
  Nov 23, 2021 264   Rider W 60-54 67%     3 - 1 +0.5 -14.2 +14.7
  Nov 24, 2021 196   Mercer W 82-58 52%     4 - 1 +22.4 +4.9 +16.8
  Dec 01, 2021 345   Tennessee Martin W 79-63 93%    
  Dec 04, 2021 89   @ Murray St. L 61-71 17%    
  Dec 11, 2021 345   @ Tennessee Martin W 76-66 82%    
  Dec 15, 2021 77   @ Mississippi L 59-70 16%    
  Dec 19, 2021 227   Coastal Carolina W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 22, 2021 109   @ Chattanooga L 59-67 24%    
  Dec 30, 2021 299   Texas San Antonio W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 01, 2022 160   UTEP W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 06, 2022 170   @ Rice L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 08, 2022 107   @ North Texas L 57-65 23%    
  Jan 13, 2022 222   Florida Atlantic W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 15, 2022 225   Florida International W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 246   Southern Miss W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 27, 2022 114   @ Marshall L 75-82 26%    
  Jan 29, 2022 126   @ Western Kentucky L 67-74 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 52   @ UAB L 63-76 13%    
  Feb 10, 2022 234   Old Dominion W 66-61 69%    
  Feb 13, 2022 198   Charlotte W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 17, 2022 225   @ Florida International L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 19, 2022 222   @ Florida Atlantic L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 24, 2022 114   Marshall L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 126   Western Kentucky L 70-71 48%    
  Mar 02, 2022 198   @ Charlotte L 65-67 43%    
  Mar 05, 2022 234   @ Old Dominion L 63-64 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.5 3.7 4.5 1.0 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.9 5.3 1.5 0.1 9.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.8 2.7 0.3 9.3 8th
9th 0.7 4.3 3.8 0.5 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.9 1.1 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.3 1.9 3.4 1.6 0.1 7.3 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 2.8 1.7 0.3 6.1 12th
13th 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.3 0.3 4.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.4 9.1 11.7 13.2 13.1 12.2 10.0 7.7 5.1 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 91.1% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 61.7% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1
14-4 29.1% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 19.6% 16.1% 3.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 4.3%
15-3 1.3% 17.2% 16.4% 0.8% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.9%
14-4 2.8% 8.5% 8.5% 13.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
13-5 5.1% 10.4% 10.4% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.6
12-6 7.7% 8.4% 8.4% 13.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 7.1
11-7 10.0% 4.8% 4.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.5
10-8 12.2% 2.6% 2.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.9
9-9 13.1% 1.6% 1.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.9
8-10 13.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.1
7-11 11.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 11.6
6-12 9.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.1
5-13 6.4% 6.4
4-14 3.9% 3.9
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.1 97.0 0.1%