Bradley
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#71
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#48
Pace65.9#271
Improvement+2.3#43

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#43
First Shot+8.1#18
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#294
Layup/Dunks+0.2#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.3#3
Freethrows-1.4#259
Improvement+1.4#74

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#110
First Shot+4.2#64
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#317
Layups/Dunks+0.2#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#47
Freethrows-1.4#268
Improvement+0.9#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.8% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.0% 37.2% 27.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.8% 4.2% 1.2%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 11.7
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.9% 96.9%
Conference Champion 44.7% 49.5% 38.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 1.7% 0.7%
First Round32.4% 36.3% 27.4%
Second Round10.3% 12.5% 7.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.9% 2.2%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Neutral) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 4
Quad 311 - 314 - 7
Quad 411 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 295   Southeast Missouri St. W 88-60 94%     1 - 0 +18.1 +11.6 +6.2
  Nov 08, 2024 74   @ Washington St. L 74-91 40%     1 - 1 -6.5 +6.2 -12.4
  Nov 12, 2024 249   Texas San Antonio W 85-72 92%     2 - 1 +5.3 +0.5 +3.9
  Nov 16, 2024 338   Northern Illinois W 76-60 97%     3 - 1 +2.3 +1.3 +1.8
  Nov 21, 2024 138   Texas St. W 82-68 74%     4 - 1 +15.4 +13.0 +2.7
  Nov 22, 2024 136   Wright St. W 77-74 74%     5 - 1 +4.4 +12.8 -8.0
  Nov 24, 2024 128   Middle Tennessee W 80-69 73%     6 - 1 +12.7 +14.7 -1.1
  Dec 03, 2024 169   @ Southern Illinois W 83-60 71%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +25.3 +15.6 +10.3
  Dec 14, 2024 84   Santa Clara W 75-73 56%    
  Dec 18, 2024 64   San Francisco W 72-70 57%    
  Dec 21, 2024 345   Canisius W 84-61 98%    
  Dec 29, 2024 247   Valparaiso W 82-66 92%    
  Jan 01, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. W 83-77 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 165   Missouri St. W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 08, 2025 73   Drake W 68-65 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 217   @ Illinois-Chicago W 80-72 77%    
  Jan 15, 2025 191   Indiana St. W 86-74 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 117   @ Murray St. W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 21, 2025 132   @ Belmont W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 170   Illinois St. W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 29, 2025 217   Illinois-Chicago W 83-69 90%    
  Feb 02, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 05, 2025 132   Belmont W 83-73 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 243   @ Evansville W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 12, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 78-66 85%    
  Feb 16, 2025 73   @ Drake L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 170   @ Illinois St. W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 117   Murray St. W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 26, 2025 247   @ Valparaiso W 79-69 80%    
  Mar 02, 2025 113   Northern Iowa W 75-67 75%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.8 9.6 11.9 9.8 5.4 1.6 44.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.5 8.4 6.3 2.6 0.4 26.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 4.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.8 6.3 9.4 12.9 15.3 16.3 14.6 10.2 5.4 1.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
19-1 100.0% 5.4    5.4 0.1
18-2 96.4% 9.8    8.9 0.9
17-3 82.1% 11.9    9.3 2.6 0.1
16-4 59.1% 9.6    5.8 3.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.1% 4.8    1.8 2.2 0.7 0.1
14-6 10.6% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 44.7% 44.7 33.1 9.7 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.6% 83.3% 57.6% 25.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 60.6%
19-1 5.4% 66.1% 53.6% 12.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 1.8 27.0%
18-2 10.2% 51.1% 46.4% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 3.0 1.3 0.0 5.0 8.7%
17-3 14.6% 42.1% 40.2% 1.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.8 2.9 0.1 8.4 3.1%
16-4 16.3% 36.6% 36.2% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 1.6 4.1 0.2 0.0 10.3 0.6%
15-5 15.3% 28.6% 28.4% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.7 3.3 0.4 0.0 10.9 0.3%
14-6 12.9% 24.3% 24.3% 12.1 0.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.8
13-7 9.4% 19.0% 19.0% 12.3 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.6
12-8 6.3% 14.1% 14.1% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.5
11-9 3.8% 11.5% 11.5% 12.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.4
10-10 2.2% 6.7% 6.7% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
9-11 1.1% 5.4% 5.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-12 0.5% 2.4% 2.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.2% 5.3% 5.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.0% 31.1% 1.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.5 10.1 16.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 67.0 2.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 4.6 2.1 7.1 14.2 25.5 27.2 15.1 3.8 1.7 0.8 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 67.6% 6.8 8.1 13.5 16.2 8.1 5.4 8.1 8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 81.3% 8.2 1.6 4.7 6.3 14.1 21.9 9.4 18.8 4.7