Bradley
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.7 121
Expected Predictive Rating +3.3 109
Pace 68.4 187
Improvement +0.9 149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 127 C C- B B- C-
Defense C+ 133 C C B C- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 296 C 58% 166 +20.1 266
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 178 D 33% 329 +7.5 198
Three Pointers 43% 140 B- 36% 83 +23.4 93
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 262 C +0.4 154
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 177
Second Chance D+ 26.9% 284 C+ 1.06 125 C- 0.29 243
Turnovers B 14.5% 39
Freethrows B- 0.33 118 B- 75% 93 B- 0.25 96
Total Offense C+ +1.5 127

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 337 C 59% 201 +18.3 315
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 21 C 38% 190 +10.8 16
Three Pointers 41% 182 D+ 36% 254 +21.9 136
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.5 15 C- +1.3 233
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 169
Second Chance C- 31.2% 212 C+ 1.00 131 C 0.31 182
Turnovers B 19.4% 51
Freethrows C- 0.32 246 C 72% 189 C- 0.24 246
Total Defense C+ +1.2 133

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 138 17.4 199
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 213 0.16 136
Improvement +2.5 #62 -1.6 #270

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 11% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 2% 3% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round10% 11% 8%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 53 - 7
Quad 37 - 510 - 12
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 135 St. Bonaventure L 63 - 69 55% -4  10% 0 - 1 C- -4 F -10 C F A- B +5 A- B B
 Sat, Nov 8 273 Central Michigan W 85 - 54 87% +14  98% 1 - 1 A +22 B +6 A+ F+ B- A+ +17 A+ A- A-
 Wed, Nov 12 205 Tennessee Martin L 67 - 78 79% -2  27% 1 - 2 F+ -17 F -12 F C+ C D+ -5 F F+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 118 @San Francisco L 64 - 75 38% -2  24% 1 - 3 D+ -5 D- -8 F D C B- +2 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 315 Umass Lowell W 87 - 77 91% -0  43% 2 - 3 C- -2 B+ +9 B A- D+ F+ -11 D- B+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 244 Princeton W 88 - 64 76% +8  76% 3 - 3 A +19 A- +11 A+ F C+ A- +9 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 139 UC San Diego L 77 - 87 55% -3  30% 3 - 4 D -9 B- +5 C A+ F+ F -13 C+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 26 93 Liberty W 74 - 64 39% +10  98% 4 - 4 A- +15 B- +5 B A+ F A +12 B+ B A
 Tue, Dec 2 126 Washington St. W 64 - 60 63% -3  10% 5 - 4 C+ +3 F -13 F C+ A A+ +16 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 328 Northern Illinois W 84 - 55 93% +14  88% 6 - 4 A- +15 C +2 B D A- A +13 A+ D- B
 Thu, Dec 18 201 @Indiana St. W 108 - 99 3OT 58% +1  44% 7 - 4 1 - 0 B +10 B +6 C- C A+ C+ +2 B A- F+
 Sun, Dec 21 125 Southern Illinois W 73 - 69 62% +4  81% 8 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 C -0 C B D B- +3 B+ C B-
 Mon, Dec 29 278 Evansville W 76 - 68 88% -2  32% 9 - 4 3 - 0 C- -2 C- -1 D F A+ C -0 B F+ D-
 Thu, Jan 1 78 @Belmont L 78 - 88 23% -3  8% 9 - 5 3 - 1 C +0 B- +5 A C F D+ -5 C- F A
 Sun, Jan 4 111 @Murray St. L 66 - 86 36% -14  1% 9 - 6 3 - 2 D- -13 F+ -8 F C- A+ D -6 F B B-
 Wed, Jan 7 183 Drake W 93 - 66 75% +20  94% 10 - 6 4 - 2 A +23 B+ +8 B+ C+ A- A +13 B A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 98 Northern Iowa W 75 - 69 52% +2  63% 11 - 6 5 - 2 B +8 B+ +8 B+ C+ A+ C -0 B C+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 278 @Evansville W 94 - 90 OT 73% -3  35% 12 - 6 6 - 2 C +0 A- +11 B- D- A+ F+ -11 F D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 90 @Illinois St. L 62 - 88 28% -13  5% 12 - 7 6 - 3 F+ -17 D -5 F C- D+ F -14 F+ F+ F+
 Wed, Jan 21 201 Indiana St. W 75 - 68 78% -3  6% 13 - 7 7 - 3 C +2 D+ -4 F C- A+ B +5 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 127 Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 85 64% -8  22% 13 - 8 7 - 4 F+ -16 C +1 B- D A+ F -18 F B D
 Sat, Jan 31 183 @Drake W 87 - 73 54% +8  82% 14 - 8 8 - 4 A- +16 A+ +18 A+ B+ C+ C -1 B+ D+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 162 Valparaiso W 72 - 65 72% +5  83% 15 - 8 9 - 4 C+ +4 C+ +2 B+ F+ C C+ +2 C F+ B+
 Fri, Feb 6 98 @Northern Iowa L 49 - 61 30% -7  7% 15 - 9 9 - 5 C- -4 F+ -9 C- F+ F B- +4 A- F C+
 Mon, Feb 9 78 Belmont W 95 - 84 OT 43% +2  63% 16 - 9 10 - 5 A- +15 A- +10 A- D- A+ B +5 A+ F A-
 Sun, Feb 15 125 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 73 40%
 Wed, Feb 18 162 @Valparaiso W 71 - 70 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 90 Illinois St. L 72 - 73 49%
 Tue, Feb 24 127 @Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 72 42%
 Sun, Mar 1 111 Murray St. W 83 - 81 58%
Totals 18 - 12 12 - 8 +3 F +2 A C C- C +1 B- B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C D B- C 34% 37% 43% C- C D+ C+ C- B B- B- B- C+ C C D+ C- 31% 28% 41% A- C C- C+ C B C- C C-
1.11 58% 33% 36% 0 -1 1.02 27% 1.1 .29 14% .33 75% .25 1.07 59% 38% 36% +1 -1 1.01 31% 1.0 .31 19% .32 72% .24
Nov
3		 St. Bonaventure F A A- F C+ 33% 25% 41% D C F F F A- D- F F B A+ D C A- 30% 30% 40% A- A- D+ A+ B B D C- D
0.95 71% 46% 29% +3 -1 1.06 15% 0.0 .00 14% .23 69% .16 1.04 40% 47% 35% -2 -2 0.94 38% 0.7 .28 20% .32 76% .24
Nov
8		 Central Michigan B A+ F A A+ 36% 13% 51% C A+ D+ F F+ B- A- C- B+ A+ A+ C- A+ A 23% 55% 21% A+ A+ A- B+ A- A- C- F D
1.24 82% 17% 42% +12 +1 1.28 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 68% .29 0.79 36% 42% 20% -7 -6 0.77 22% 1.0 .22 22% .28 80% .22
Nov
12		 Tennessee Martin F C+ F F F 42% 18% 40% B F F+ A+ C+ C A+ A+ A+ D+ D- F F F 39% 9% 52% F F A F F+ A+ C- C+ C
0.91 63% 13% 6% -19 +1 0.64 26% 1.3 .33 19% .62 81% .51 1.06 65% 50% 43% +11 +1 1.27 27% 1.6 .42 31% .34 65% .22
Nov
15		 San Francisco D- F A+ F F 31% 12% 58% B- F D- C- D C A A+ A+ B- C+ F F F 43% 17% 40% D+ F F A+ A+ A+ F C+ F
0.94 38% 50% 23% -14 +1 0.75 21% 1.0 .21 13% .36 86% .31 1.10 56% 57% 53% +14 +1 1.31 45% 0.5 .21 26% .46 70% .32
Nov
19		 Umass Lowell B+ A+ F A+ A 30% 36% 34% F B B+ B A- D+ A+ C- A+ F+ F D C F 21% 47% 32% A+ D- C A+ B+ C- F F F
1.29 79% 18% 56% +10 -3 1.17 39% 1.3 .48 15% .45 73% .33 1.14 80% 45% 33% +8 -5 1.09 31% 0.8 .24 19% .48 85% .40
Nov
24		 Princeton A- A+ C- A+ A+ 30% 15% 55% C- A+ F F F C+ B- C- B- A- D- F A- D 28% 18% 54% B- D+ D- F F A+ F A+ F+
1.26 81% 38% 45% +16 0 1.34 14% 0.8 .10 13% .33 70% .23 0.92 64% 57% 29% +1 0 1.03 31% 1.2 .38 34% .46 62% .28
Nov
25		 UC San Diego B- F+ B C C 31% 14% 55% C+ C A- A+ A+ F+ C B C+ F A- B- F+ C+ 41% 12% 47% C C+ C- F F D- F F+ F
1.10 47% 43% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.5 .55 20% .27 73% .20 1.24 50% 33% 39% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.7 .45 13% .51 74% .38
Nov
26		 Liberty B- B+ C- A B+ 35% 28% 37% D B A B+ A+ F B+ A+ A A B F C- B+ 43% 9% 48% B- B+ B- A B A F A+ D
1.15 63% 38% 41% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.4 .58 23% .28 86% .24 1.00 55% 50% 36% +1 +2 1.09 17% 0.8 .13 19% .40 52% .21
Dec
2		 Washington St. F C+ D+ F F 33% 21% 46% C F D+ A+ C+ A B+ F C- A+ D- A+ F C+ 23% 41% 36% A+ B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F C+
0.93 59% 36% 13% -15 0 0.71 23% 1.4 .32 10% .36 59% .21 0.87 70% 22% 50% +5 -4 1.05 25% 0.6 .14 29% .25 83% .21
Dec
6		 Northern Illinois C B+ C- B B 41% 15% 44% C B F A+ D A- D+ A- C A B+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 17% 47% B A+ F C D- B F A+ B-
1.16 68% 38% 38% +6 +1 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 14% .30 79% .24 0.76 47% 13% 18% -19 0 0.64 40% 0.8 .33 25% .44 46% .20
Dec
18		 Indiana St. B C- A- D- C+ 29% 34% 37% F C- D A C A+ B+ F C+ C+ C A+ D+ B- 36% 11% 53% B+ B B+ A A- F+ F C- F
1.14 55% 50% 29% 0 -2 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 8% .31 63% .20 1.05 61% 0% 35% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.8 .16 15% .53 70% .37
Dec
21		 Southern Illinois C C- F A+ C 43% 27% 29% C- C B- B- B D B+ A+ A+ B- C F A+ B+ 33% 35% 31% A- B+ C C- C B- C C+ C
1.02 55% 14% 47% -2 -1 0.96 31% 1.1 .34 21% .35 90% .32 0.96 59% 56% 13% -4 -2 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 18% .31 67% .21
Dec
29		 Evansville C- A+ F B- C- 26% 39% 35% F D D F F A+ B+ A A C B- C- B- C+ 17% 47% 36% A+ B C- F F+ D- B C+ B
1.10 79% 24% 37% +1 -3 0.98 28% 0.6 .18 7% .33 81% .27 0.99 56% 40% 32% -1 -5 0.91 25% 1.3 .33 16% .24 71% .17
Jan
1		 Belmont B- D C- A+ A 24% 18% 58% C- A A- F C F B F C D+ C- A+ F C 50% 2% 48% F C- F A- F A F D- F
1.12 50% 33% 45% +7 -1 1.14 41% 0.8 .32 23% .32 65% .20 1.26 64% 0% 43% +8 +3 1.25 43% 1.1 .46 23% .56 73% .41
Jan
4		 Murray St. F+ F F A+ F 41% 32% 27% D F D- B C- A+ D A C- D F A- F F 29% 17% 54% B F C+ B+ B B- A F B-
0.96 33% 11% 44% -15 -1 0.69 27% 1.2 .31 6% .25 81% .20 1.25 80% 33% 43% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 17% .25 93% .23
Jan
7		 Drake B+ C- A+ B B+ 33% 21% 46% C+ B+ F+ A+ C+ A- A+ C- A A A+ A+ F+ B 24% 22% 55% B- B A+ A+ A+ A F A+ F
1.25 58% 58% 38% +7 0 1.16 22% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .29 0.89 42% 27% 39% -2 -1 0.96 15% 0.5 .08 19% .46 61% .28
Jan
10		 Northern Iowa B+ A B C- A- 26% 28% 46% F+ B+ C- B C+ A+ A+ F A+ C B C+ D+ C+ 24% 33% 43% A+ B A- F C+ F D A C
1.12 69% 43% 30% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 7% .45 64% .29 1.03 54% 39% 35% 0 -3 0.96 16% 1.3 .21 7% .29 61% .18
Jan
13		 Evansville A- B- A+ D B 40% 28% 32% C- B- D+ F D- A+ A B A+ F+ F+ D- F F 20% 36% 44% A F C- D D+ C+ F D+ F
1.24 63% 59% 32% +7 -1 1.13 29% 0.8 .24 8% .37 77% .29 1.18 70% 44% 45% +12 -3 1.20 25% 1.1 .28 20% .51 74% .38
Jan
17		 Illinois St. D F D- D F 43% 30% 28% C+ F B- F C- D+ A+ B A+ F F A F F 37% 26% 37% B- F+ F B+ F+ F+ A- F+ B
0.93 40% 29% 31% -12 -1 0.77 29% 0.8 .22 18% .42 74% .31 1.32 75% 29% 45% +10 -1 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 12% .22 77% .17
Jan
21		 Indiana St. D+ F+ F F F 38% 22% 40% C F D- A C- A+ A+ A+ A+ B F D+ C F 40% 18% 42% A D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- D+ B+
1.05 48% 25% 23% -14 0 0.75 26% 1.2 .31 4% .45 84% .38 0.95 75% 44% 33% +8 0 1.18 11% 0.7 .07 27% .19 70% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Illinois-Chicago C A A- F B- 34% 19% 47% C- B- F A+ D A+ A D+ B+ F F D F F 20% 43% 37% A+ F C+ B+ B D B F C+
1.07 69% 44% 27% 0 0 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 14% .39 73% .28 1.30 70% 43% 56% +16 -4 1.27 34% 0.9 .31 15% .29 81% .23
Jan
31		 Drake A+ F F A+ A+ 27% 29% 44% D A+ A C B+ C+ D B- D+ C F F A+ C+ 17% 38% 45% A+ B+ F A D+ D+ F F F
1.34 43% 20% 70% +14 -2 1.27 40% 0.9 .37 14% .25 71% .18 1.12 75% 56% 19% 0 -4 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 12% .46 81% .37
Feb
3		 Valparaiso C+ C A+ B- A- 33% 29% 38% D- B+ D F F+ C C- D+ D+ C+ D D+ A C- 33% 37% 31% B C B- F F+ B+ A+ A+ A+
1.10 59% 53% 35% +5 -1 1.10 27% 0.6 .17 17% .30 69% .20 1.00 63% 39% 27% -2 -2 0.94 29% 1.5 .43 18% .19 40% .08
Feb
6		 Northern Iowa F+ F F A D+ 33% 13% 54% B- C- F D- F+ F B A+ A+ B- B D A+ A- 50% 20% 30% C A- F D- F C+ D D- D-
0.82 31% 20% 38% -8 +1 0.87 14% 0.8 .11 27% .30 92% .27 1.02 55% 44% 23% -5 +1 0.93 29% 1.2 .35 15% .30 73% .22
Feb
9		 Belmont A- F+ F A+ A- 29% 15% 56% C+ A- F+ C- D- A+ A+ C+ A B F A+ A A+ 25% 19% 57% A+ A+ F F+ F A- F F F
1.23 47% 11% 48% +5 0 1.12 24% 1.0 .24 10% .37 77% .29 1.09 85% 20% 30% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.4 .53 22% .40 75% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 0.9 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 18.1 13.6 2.2 35.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 12.3 9.5 0.2 22.2 3rd
4th 0.0 4.5 13.5 0.5 18.5 4th
5th 0.6 9.7 3.0 13.3 5th
6th 2.4 4.2 0.1 6.6 6th
7th 1.7 0.3 2.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 4.8 18.9 30.6 28.2 14.5 3.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 29.9% 0.9    0.1 0.8
14-6 4.6% 0.7    0.0 0.4 0.2
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.1 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 3.1% 12.2% 12.2% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.7
14-6 14.5% 15.5% 15.5% 12.4 0.0 1.4 0.8 0.0 12.3
13-7 28.2% 11.2% 11.2% 12.6 0.0 1.3 1.7 0.1 25.0
12-8 30.6% 8.4% 8.4% 12.8 0.7 1.5 0.3 28.0
11-9 18.9% 5.1% 5.1% 13.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 17.9
10-10 4.8% 3.8% 3.8% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.6
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 12.6 90.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.8 21.1 73.7 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 1.7%