Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#130
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#94
Pace61.6#334
Improvement-0.5#251

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#240
First Shot-0.8#211
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#268
Layup/Dunks+3.1#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#124
Freethrows-1.5#296
Improvement+0.4#105

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#64
First Shot+2.7#91
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#52
Layups/Dunks+0.6#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#104
Freethrows+1.4#81
Improvement-0.9#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.6% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 99.7% 95.2%
Conference Champion 13.6% 18.7% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.9% 9.6% 7.7%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 4
Quad 36 - 49 - 8
Quad 411 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 94-63 91%     1 - 0 +18.1 +11.5 +6.2
  Nov 10, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma St. W 61-60 13%     2 - 0 +15.7 +1.8 +13.8
  Nov 13, 2022 270   @ Southern Indiana L 53-71 69%     2 - 1 -20.9 -22.1 +1.0
  Nov 17, 2022 321   Tennessee St. W 57-44 90%     3 - 1 +1.1 -23.4 +24.5
  Nov 21, 2022 76   UNLV L 49-56 32%     3 - 2 -0.1 -12.7 +11.7
  Nov 23, 2022 156   California Baptist W 64-61 OT 57%     4 - 2 +3.5 -3.6 +7.3
  Nov 30, 2022 341   @ Evansville W 80-53 85%     5 - 2 +18.2 +7.7 +11.4
  Dec 03, 2022 79   @ Saint Louis L 72-85 25%     5 - 3 -3.7 +4.6 -8.7
  Dec 07, 2022 117   Indiana St. L 71-74 59%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -3.0 -2.4 -0.6
  Dec 10, 2022 289   Alcorn St. W 74-68 86%     6 - 4 -3.5 -1.1 -2.3
  Dec 16, 2022 317   Chicago St. W 63-52 89%     7 - 4 -0.1 -7.0 +8.7
  Dec 21, 2022 251   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 70-68 66%     8 - 4 +0.0 -6.7 +6.6
  Dec 29, 2022 159   @ Murray St. W 63-57 47%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +9.1 +5.6 +5.0
  Jan 01, 2023 128   Belmont W 63-45 60%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +17.6 -7.0 +25.9
  Jan 04, 2023 84   Drake W 53-49 46%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +7.4 -9.5 +17.5
  Jan 07, 2023 160   @ Northern Iowa L 57-69 47%     11 - 5 3 - 2 -8.9 -8.1 -2.0
  Jan 11, 2023 117   @ Indiana St. W 69-61 38%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +13.5 -1.9 +15.2
  Jan 14, 2023 234   Illinois St. W 69-57 80%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +5.5 +4.3 +3.1
  Jan 17, 2023 341   Evansville W 77-70 93%     14 - 5 6 - 2 -7.3 -7.9 +0.0
  Jan 21, 2023 136   @ Missouri St. W 61-57 41%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +8.5 +9.2 +0.5
  Jan 24, 2023 159   Murray St. W 68-64 67%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +1.6 -3.0 +4.9
  Jan 29, 2023 234   @ Illinois St. L 66-72 62%     16 - 6 8 - 3 -7.0 +5.4 -13.5
  Feb 01, 2023 89   @ Bradley L 52-62 28%     16 - 7 8 - 4 -1.7 -7.0 +3.8
  Feb 05, 2023 136   Missouri St. W 61-58 63%    
  Feb 08, 2023 264   Illinois-Chicago W 69-59 84%    
  Feb 11, 2023 84   @ Drake L 58-65 26%    
  Feb 14, 2023 267   @ Valparaiso W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 19, 2023 89   Bradley L 60-61 49%    
  Feb 22, 2023 160   Northern Iowa W 65-60 68%    
  Feb 26, 2023 264   @ Illinois-Chicago W 66-61 67%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.7 8.3 2.6 13.6 1st
2nd 1.0 11.8 4.9 0.1 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 7.1 10.3 0.4 17.8 3rd
4th 1.3 13.5 2.1 16.9 4th
5th 0.1 6.4 6.7 0.1 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 7.9 0.8 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.8 2.6 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.2 3.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 1.8 7.3 18.5 29.1 26.9 13.6 2.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 96.4% 2.6    1.9 0.6 0.0
14-6 61.3% 8.3    2.0 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0
13-7 10.0% 2.7    0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 4.0 4.8 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 2.7% 14.9% 14.0% 0.9% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.3 1.0%
14-6 13.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 11.9
13-7 26.9% 10.2% 10.2% 12.7 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 24.1
12-8 29.1% 8.1% 8.1% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 26.7
11-9 18.5% 6.6% 6.6% 13.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 17.3
10-10 7.3% 5.4% 5.4% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.9
9-11 1.8% 3.8% 3.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
8-12 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.2
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 12.8 0.2 2.6 4.6 1.4 0.1 91.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 14.9% 11.9 3.6 9.0 2.2
Lose Out 0.2% 2.4% 15.0 2.4