Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#169
Expected Predictive Rating-7.3#285
Pace72.4#86
Improvement-1.1#253

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#234
First Shot-3.5#283
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#111
Layup/Dunks+3.1#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#341
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#293
Freethrows+0.1#176
Improvement-2.4#332

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#118
First Shot+2.3#108
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#232
Layups/Dunks-2.3#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#128
Freethrows+1.7#81
Improvement+1.2#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 2.9% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.5
.500 or above 21.3% 24.1% 9.3%
.500 or above in Conference 39.1% 41.4% 29.6%
Conference Champion 0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 8.4% 13.6%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round2.6% 2.8% 1.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Home) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 35 - 86 - 15
Quad 47 - 312 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 127   College of Charleston L 80-90 41%     0 - 1 -8.3 -0.6 -6.7
  Nov 14, 2024 81   @ Oklahoma St. L 78-85 17%     0 - 2 +2.6 +6.9 -4.0
  Nov 18, 2024 187   North Dakota St. W 69-44 64%     1 - 2 +20.7 -5.5 +28.1
  Nov 22, 2024 10   @ Florida L 68-93 4%     1 - 3 -4.5 +0.6 -4.4
  Nov 25, 2024 103   Louisiana Tech L 79-85 OT 31%     1 - 4 -1.5 -5.4 +4.9
  Nov 26, 2024 207   Eastern Kentucky L 72-77 56%     1 - 5 -7.2 -5.8 -1.3
  Dec 03, 2024 71   Bradley L 60-83 29%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -18.0 -10.7 -7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 293   Southern Indiana W 77-68 81%    
  Dec 14, 2024 238   @ Austin Peay W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 21, 2024 141   High Point W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 29, 2024 113   @ Northern Iowa L 67-74 26%    
  Jan 01, 2025 243   Evansville W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 05, 2025 170   @ Illinois St. L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 08, 2025 132   @ Belmont L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 165   Missouri St. W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 15, 2025 165   @ Missouri St. L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 113   Northern Iowa L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 22, 2025 117   Murray St. L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 217   @ Illinois-Chicago L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 28, 2025 247   @ Valparaiso W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 73   @ Drake L 60-71 15%    
  Feb 05, 2025 243   @ Evansville W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 217   Illinois-Chicago W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 12, 2025 71   @ Bradley L 66-78 15%    
  Feb 15, 2025 132   Belmont W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 19, 2025 117   @ Murray St. L 66-73 29%    
  Feb 22, 2025 247   Valparaiso W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 25, 2025 170   Illinois St. W 72-69 61%    
  Mar 02, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. L 78-80 41%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.8 2.7 0.3 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.9 6.6 9.3 11.7 13.2 12.9 11.8 9.6 7.7 4.8 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 72.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 46.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 17.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 10.0% 10.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 29.3% 29.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.6% 18.7% 18.7% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-5 1.4% 16.5% 16.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
14-6 2.9% 11.7% 11.7% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5
13-7 4.8% 8.4% 8.4% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.4
12-8 7.7% 5.8% 5.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.3
11-9 9.6% 3.8% 3.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.3
10-10 11.8% 2.5% 2.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.5
9-11 12.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.1 0.1 12.7
8-12 13.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.1
7-13 11.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.7
6-14 9.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.3
5-15 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.6
4-16 3.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-17 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 97.3 0.0%