Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.2 128
Expected Predictive Rating +0.2 153
Pace 72.3 77
Improvement +1.9 111

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 271 C D+ C+ C- D+
Defense B+ 40 B- B- B B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 76 C+ 60% 121 +3.1 81
2 Pt. Jumpers 55% 33 B+ 45% 32 +5.3 10
Three Pointers 28% 362 F 28% 358 -9.2 363
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 296 C +0.1 166
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 198
Second Chance C- 29.3% 213 D 0.93 308 D+ 0.27 262
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 151
Freethrows C 0.30 194 D 68% 315 C- 0.21 232
Total Offense D+ -3.8 271

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 83 C+ 9.9% 116
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 205 B- 3.3% 67
Three Pointers C+ 86% 157 C+ 0.7% 135
Total D+ 51% 286 C+ 5.4% 157

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 212 C+ 56% 118 -1.4 125
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 161 C- 40% 239 +0.5 225
Three Pointers 41% 158 B+ 30% 34 -2.1 92
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 144 B- -2.8 71
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 81
Second Chance B- 28.1% 89 C+ 1.00 138 B- 0.28 87
Turnovers B 18.9% 65
Freethrows C+ 0.28 120 B 70% 52 B- 0.20 85
Total Defense B+ +6.0 40

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 150 C+ 12.5% 110
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 218 C+ 6.1% 100
Three Pointers C- 85% 217 C+ 1.2% 100
Total C+ 54% 149 C+ 6.5% 109

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.1 59 17.5 231
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 121 0.15 93
Improvement -4.8 #352 +6.8 #3

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 146 128 112
Conference Record 8 - 12 9 - 11 10 - 10
Conference Finish 8 8 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 12.7 14.0
.500 or above 17% 47% 6%
.500 or above in Conference 16% 62% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 1
Quad 22 - 84 - 9
Quad 33 - 77 - 16
Quad 48 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 360 UMKC W 101 - 78 97% +11  66% 1 - 0 C+ +4 A +11 A+ A- C+ F+ -10 C+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 12 79 @Nevada L 81 - 86 OT 22% +1  56% 1 - 1 B- +5 C +1 C F A+ B +5 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 132 @North Dakota St. L 85 - 92 41% -4  11% 1 - 2 C- -2 C+ +3 B+ C D+ D+ -4 D- D- C-
 Sun, Nov 23 263 Delaware W 79 - 59 77% +10  99% 2 - 2 B+ +14 C+ +3 D+ A- C- A+ +12 B- C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 123 UAB L 73 - 81 48% -5  9% 2 - 3 D+ -5 C -0 C- D A+ D -5 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 103 @Memphis L 58 - 74 29% -11  0% 2 - 4 D -8 F -10 F C- B B- +2 C+ D B
 Sat, Nov 29 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 65 89% +1  59% 3 - 4 C- -2 C +0 A D F C -1 F B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 89 @High Point W 86 - 84 25% -3  27% 4 - 4 B+ +11 B+ +8 C- A+ A+ B- +3 C+ B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 217 Tennessee Martin W 83 - 54 79% +9  83% 5 - 4 A +23 B+ +8 A+ B C+ A+ +15 A A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 129 @Richmond L 84 - 93 OT 39% -2  30% 5 - 5 C- -4 D- -6 D- B- F B +4 D A+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 99 Illinois St. L 68 - 75 50% +0  58% 5 - 6 0 - 1 C- -5 D -5 B- B+ F C +0 C+ F B
 Sun, Dec 21 120 @Bradley L 69 - 73 36% -4  10% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C+ +2 D -5 D- C- C+ A- +7 B- D A+
 Mon, Dec 29 124 @Murray St. L 81 - 84 37% -7  1% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C+ +3 C +1 D A+ C- B- +2 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 161 Valparaiso W 75 - 70 70% +5  78% 6 - 8 1 - 3 C+ +2 D -6 D- C A A- +7 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 68 @Belmont W 68 - 67 20% +0  58% 7 - 8 2 - 3 B+ +12 D+ -4 B- C- F A+ +16 C+ A+ A
 Wed, Jan 7 106 @Illinois-Chicago L 57 - 70 32% -8  10% 7 - 9 2 - 4 D+ -6 F+ -8 B F D C+ +1 A F F+
 Wed, Jan 14 194 Drake L 73 - 76 OT 76% +4  65% 7 - 10 2 - 5 D+ -8 F -15 F D A A- +7 A+ D- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 68 Belmont L 68 - 73 38% -2  35% 7 - 11 2 - 6 C +0 D- -7 D- D C+ A- +7 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 161 @Valparaiso L 63 - 69 48% -11  10% 7 - 12 2 - 7 C- -3 D+ -4 D- C- C C +0 F A C+
 Wed, Jan 28 90 Northern Iowa W 65 - 50 46% +6  74% 8 - 12 3 - 7 A +18 C- -1 A F B A+ +20 A A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 106 Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 68 54% +6  73% 8 - 13 3 - 8 C -1 D+ -3 B- F A+ C+ +2 A F A+
 Tue, Feb 3 99 @Illinois St. W 54 - 50 28% +1  51% 9 - 13 4 - 8 B+ +12 F -14 C- F F A+ +26 A+ A+ B-
 Fri, Feb 6 124 Murray St. L 81 - 91 60% -6  29% 9 - 14 4 - 9 D -10 C- -1 C- D- A+ F+ -9 F A+ A
 Mon, Feb 9 211 @Indiana St. W 80 - 65 58% +7  80% 10 - 14 5 - 9 A- +15 C -0 B F C- A+ +14 A+ F+ A-
 Thu, Feb 12 298 Evansville W 86 - 60 88% +15  91% 11 - 14 6 - 9 A- +15 B+ +9 B A C+ B+ +7 C A- B+
 Sun, Feb 15 120 Bradley L 60 - 70 59% -5  4% 11 - 15 6 - 10 D -10 F -15 F F A B +5 B- B F+
 Wed, Feb 18 194 @Drake W 66 - 61 55% -1  43% 12 - 15 7 - 10 B- +6 F -11 F F+ D A+ +17 A B A
 Sat, Feb 21 90 @Northern Iowa L 59 - 66 26%
 Wed, Feb 25 211 Indiana St. W 76 - 68 78%
 Sun, Mar 1 298 @Evansville W 72 - 65 75%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 11 +2 D+ -4 D+ C D+ B+ +6 F D C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ B+ F C 42% 55% 28% D+ C C- D D+ C+ C D C- B+ C+ C- B+ B- 37% 21% 41% C B- B- C+ B- B C+ B B-
1.03 60% 45% 28% 0 -1 1.01 29% 0.9 .27 16% .30 68% .21 1.00 56% 40% 30% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.0 .28 19% .28 70% .21
Nov
7		 UMKC A A+ A+ A- A+ 57% 25% 19% C A+ D+ A+ A- C+ A+ F A- F+ A+ F D- C+ 38% 27% 35% C C+ F+ F F D- F A D-
1.33 77% 54% 40% +16 +1 1.36 33% 1.4 .48 16% .41 62% .25 1.02 29% 47% 37% -7 -1 0.85 34% 1.2 .40 16% .36 61% .22
Nov
12		 Nevada C D A F C+ 40% 34% 26% F+ C D F F A+ A F+ B B A+ F A+ A+ 25% 30% 46% A- A+ B- A+ A+ F F+ B D
1.03 48% 50% 27% -3 -2 0.93 23% 0.9 .20 10% .41 66% .27 1.09 33% 50% 25% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.7 .23 5% .44 73% .32
Nov
17		 North Dakota St. C+ A A+ F A- 45% 29% 25% C- B+ B+ D- C D+ D B- D D+ A+ F+ F F+ 25% 25% 50% B D- B F D- C- C- F D-
1.10 72% 69% 21% +10 -1 1.22 37% 0.7 .27 21% .21 77% .16 1.19 40% 47% 47% +7 -2 1.13 28% 1.4 .39 15% .29 84% .24
Nov
23		 Delaware C+ A+ A F C+ 20% 51% 29% F D+ A C A- C- A+ C A+ A+ F F A- C- 11% 32% 57% A+ B- F A C- A+ A+ B+ A+
1.16 90% 48% 14% +3 -5 0.98 41% 1.0 .41 15% .43 80% .34 0.87 80% 53% 30% +3 -3 1.02 30% 0.7 .20 28% .14 71% .10
Nov
24		 UAB C A A+ F C- 34% 29% 36% D C- C- F D A+ D+ A+ C D B C- D+ C- 35% 33% 33% A C F+ F F C+ C- C C-
1.04 70% 47% 19% -1 -1 0.97 26% 0.7 .18 11% .21 85% .18 1.15 53% 39% 33% -2 -2 0.95 38% 1.3 .50 13% .33 70% .23
Nov
26		 Memphis F C- F F F 37% 44% 19% F F B F C- B A+ F A+ B- B B+ D+ C+ 39% 20% 41% D+ C+ B- F D B F+ F F
0.83 56% 21% 13% -14 -3 0.67 38% 0.7 .27 19% .58 61% .35 1.06 53% 30% 35% -3 0 0.96 34% 1.4 .49 21% .36 80% .29
Nov
29		 Arkansas Little Rock C B- A+ A A+ 49% 17% 34% C+ A C- F+ D F A+ F B+ C F F A+ F 34% 23% 43% D- F C- A+ B+ A+ C A+ B+
1.16 65% 86% 43% +16 +1 1.37 35% 0.8 .26 23% .41 60% .25 1.02 81% 55% 25% +6 -1 1.13 31% 0.8 .24 25% .23 45% .10
Dec
3		 High Point B+ C- F A- C- 45% 24% 31% D+ C- C+ A+ A+ A+ F C F B- A- A+ F C+ 42% 15% 42% C+ C+ C+ B- B- C+ D+ C D+
1.16 58% 29% 39% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.8 .58 16% .23 71% .16 1.13 50% 25% 41% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.1 .33 15% .38 75% .29
Dec
10		 Tennessee Martin B+ A C A- A+ 52% 22% 26% B+ A+ C- A+ B C+ B D+ B- A+ A+ B A A+ 28% 12% 60% D+ A A- A+ A+ A+ A C- B+
1.19 73% 36% 38% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 19% .37 67% .25 0.77 43% 33% 27% -11 0 0.80 29% 0.5 .16 27% .24 67% .16
Dec
13		 Richmond D- F+ C- D+ D+ 27% 51% 22% F D- B C- B- F A A+ A+ B F F B D- 30% 30% 41% C+ D A+ F A+ C D B- D+
0.96 50% 37% 31% -4 -5 0.85 36% 1.1 .40 25% .38 80% .31 1.06 72% 56% 32% +8 -2 1.15 6% 1.5 .09 15% .36 74% .27
Dec
18		 Illinois St. D D- A+ F B+ 33% 44% 23% F B- B- A B+ F A+ F C+ C F F A+ B- 35% 19% 46% C- C+ F+ F F B D+ A+ A
0.97 50% 62% 18% +2 -3 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 23% .41 55% .22 1.07 72% 50% 25% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.3 .44 19% .32 39% .12
Dec
21		 Bradley D C A+ F D- 33% 35% 31% D+ D- C- C C- C+ D+ F+ D A- B- A+ F B 43% 27% 29% C B- D- C- D A+ D+ F F
0.96 59% 56% 13% -4 -2 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 18% .31 67% .21 1.02 55% 14% 47% -2 -1 0.96 31% 1.1 .34 21% .35 90% .32
Dec
29		 Murray St. C D D+ C- D- 58% 31% 11% C+ D B- A+ A+ C- C- D+ D+ B- F A+ F F 31% 21% 48% B+ F A+ A+ A+ B C- C- C-
1.09 50% 35% 33% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.4 .51 17% .28 71% .20 1.13 88% 27% 40% +11 -1 1.23 23% 0.7 .16 19% .35 76% .26
Jan
1		 Valparaiso D F D C F+ 44% 20% 36% B- D- F+ A+ C A A+ F A+ A- A+ B A+ A+ 38% 29% 34% D+ A+ B- A+ A+ D+ F F F
1.00 45% 30% 33% -7 0 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 12% .64 60% .38 0.94 43% 31% 21% -14 -1 0.71 30% 0.6 .17 13% .45 83% .37
Jan
4		 Belmont D+ D A+ C+ B 28% 32% 40% F+ B- B+ F C- F D+ F F+ A+ D+ F A+ B- 61% 14% 25% D- C+ B- A+ A+ A F+ A+ B-
0.98 50% 50% 35% +2 -2 1.02 38% 0.8 .30 26% .25 62% .16 0.97 67% 67% 27% +7 +3 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 23% .37 50% .19
Jan
7		 Illinois-Chicago F+ D+ A+ D- B+ 41% 25% 33% D+ B F F F D F F F C+ A A A+ A+ 51% 15% 34% F A D F F F+ F A+ D+
0.88 52% 62% 29% +1 0 1.04 17% 0.6 .10 23% .08 50% .04 1.08 46% 29% 25% -12 +2 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 14% .40 64% .25
Jan
14		 Drake F B D+ F F 32% 31% 37% D F C F D A B D+ C+ A- D F A+ A+ 27% 19% 54% C A+ B F D- B+ F C- F+
0.92 65% 32% 13% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.7 .20 10% .34 67% .22 0.96 64% 50% 18% -9 -1 0.83 22% 1.7 .37 18% .38 72% .28
Jan
17		 Belmont D- D F D+ D- 36% 20% 44% C+ D- D- C D C+ A- A+ A+ A- F+ A- A+ A+ 40% 19% 40% B+ A+ D- A C F F+ C- F+
0.98 50% 20% 32% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.0 .26 17% .35 85% .30 1.05 71% 30% 19% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.1 .35 13% .38 70% .27
Jan
21		 Valparaiso D+ B+ F F F+ 51% 22% 27% B- D- C- D+ C- C A+ F A+ C F+ A F F 31% 31% 38% C F A+ F A C+ F B- F
0.99 67% 11% 18% -8 +1 0.88 31% 0.8 .26 17% .57 60% .34 1.08 67% 25% 47% +6 -2 1.10 15% 1.5 .22 16% .56 67% .37
Jan
28		 Northern Iowa C- C- A+ A+ A+ 31% 39% 31% F A C- F F B A F D A+ B+ A- A+ A+ 51% 13% 36% D A A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A C+
0.99 53% 53% 40% +7 -3 1.10 24% 0.4 .09 15% .34 47% .16 0.76 52% 33% 25% -8 +2 0.89 10% 0.7 .06 26% .27 62% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Illinois-Chicago D+ D C- A+ B 47% 26% 28% C B- F F F A+ A D+ A C+ C+ A A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% F+ A F C+ F A+ F F F
1.00 50% 33% 46% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.4 .06 15% .39 73% .29 1.03 55% 29% 19% -11 +1 0.81 49% 1.0 .49 26% .53 81% .43
Feb
3		 Illinois St. F B+ A- F C 38% 40% 22% D- C- D F F F C- B C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 37% 35% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+
0.79 65% 44% 10% -3 -3 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 22% .28 73% .21 0.74 47% 25% 26% -12 -3 0.72 19% 0.9 .17 18% .18 60% .11
Feb
6		 Murray St. C- A C- F C+ 34% 34% 32% F+ C- D- D- D- A+ B+ B+ A- F+ D- F F F 45% 10% 45% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A F C- F
1.11 68% 37% 28% 0 -2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 10% .35 78% .27 1.24 68% 80% 50% +20 +2 1.45 21% 0.6 .13 21% .45 77% .34
Feb
9		 Indiana St. C B B C B 46% 29% 25% C- B C+ F F C- D C- D A+ B C A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% C A+ B F F+ A- C C+ C
1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14 0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17
Feb
12		 Evansville B+ A+ F C+ B- 42% 13% 45% A- B A C+ A C+ F A D- B+ D+ F+ B- C- 21% 25% 55% C+ C C A+ A- B+ A+ D+ A+
1.26 74% 29% 36% +7 +1 1.18 43% 1.1 .47 16% .19 82% .16 0.88 64% 46% 31% +1 -2 1.00 23% 0.6 .14 22% .08 75% .06
Feb
15		 Bradley F C A+ F F 35% 41% 24% D- F D- F F A C- A+ B B D B+ B+ B- 37% 24% 39% C B- A- D+ B F+ A+ A+ A+
0.87 58% 50% 0% -7 -3 0.81 24% 0.4 .11 14% .32 84% .27 1.01 64% 29% 30% -2 0 0.97 21% 1.1 .24 10% .14 56% .08
Feb
18		 Drake F D- F B+ F 35% 24% 42% C F C+ F F+ D C- F D A+ C A- A+ A 32% 23% 45% C+ A C A B A A A+ A+
0.93 53% 8% 39% -6 -1 0.89 31% 0.5 .17 17% .29 59% .17 0.86 59% 33% 25% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.9 .23 20% .23 46% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 2.3 2.3 6th
7th 4.3 7.5 11.9 7th
8th 4.1 28.3 46.7 6.2 85.4 8th
9th 0.5 0.5 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 4.6 28.3 51.0 16.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 16.1% 4.9% 4.9% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 15.3
9-11 51.0% 3.6% 3.6% 13.4 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 49.2
8-12 28.3% 2.9% 2.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 27.5
7-13 4.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.5
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 13.6 96.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 12.3 1.3 68.4 29.5 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%
Lose Out 1.8%