St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.5#361
Expected Predictive Rating-17.4#353
Pace72.4#101
Improvement+0.8#126

Offense
Total Offense-8.9#357
First Shot-7.0#353
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#303
Layup/Dunks-0.5#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#116
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#273
Freethrows-4.8#361
Improvement+1.7#73

Defense
Total Defense-6.5#346
First Shot-8.3#364
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#52
Layups/Dunks-5.0#334
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#350
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement-0.8#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.4% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 10.8% 18.6% 6.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 48.9% 33.8% 57.5%
First Four1.1% 1.4% 0.9%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Home) - 36.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 45 - 145 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 45 @Oklahoma L 66-102 1%     0 - 1 -21.7 -6.3 -13.3
  Thu, Nov 6 53 @TCU L 63-104 1%     0 - 2 -28.1 -7.2 -17.0
  Tue, Nov 11 300 Mount St. Mary's L 66-74 32%     0 - 3 -18.6 -9.9 -8.7
  Tue, Nov 18 315 @Lehigh L 62-79 19%     0 - 4 -23.0 -15.8 -6.5
  Mon, Nov 24 69 Belmont L 57-94 2%     0 - 5 -29.0 -14.3 -13.7
  Wed, Nov 26 139 Troy L 64-74 7%     0 - 6 -8.5 -10.5 +2.5
  Mon, Dec 1 97 @Xavier L 74-96 2%     0 - 7 -13.5 -1.2 -10.1
  Sun, Dec 7 261 @Radford L 56-89 12%     0 - 8 -35.5 -19.4 -16.4
  Sun, Dec 14 151 @Temple L 67-95 5%     0 - 9 -24.5 -7.0 -17.7
  Wed, Dec 17 12 @Florida L 61-102 0.3%    0 - 10 -20.0 -2.7 -16.0
  Sat, Dec 20 185 Robert Morris L 70-79 16%     0 - 11 -13.7 +1.3 -15.9
  Fri, Jan 2 312 Le Moyne L 77-81 36%    
  Sun, Jan 4 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-75 57%    
  Thu, Jan 8 295 @Wagner L 67-78 15%    
  Sat, Jan 17 278 Central Connecticut St. L 68-74 28%    
  Mon, Jan 19 338 Stonehill L 68-69 45%    
  Fri, Jan 23 336 Chicago St. L 74-76 43%    
  Sun, Jan 25 340 @New Haven L 64-71 26%    
  Thu, Jan 29 336 @Chicago St. L 71-79 24%    
  Sat, Jan 31 340 New Haven L 67-68 46%    
  Thu, Feb 5 318 @Mercyhurst L 64-73 21%    
  Thu, Feb 12 357 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 74-78 37%    
  Thu, Feb 19 206 LIU Brooklyn L 72-82 20%    
  Sat, Feb 21 295 Wagner L 70-75 31%    
  Thu, Feb 26 338 @Stonehill L 65-72 26%    
  Sat, Feb 28 278 @Central Connecticut St. L 65-77 14%    
Projected Record 5 - 21 5 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.0 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.1 0.2 6.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.5 3.9 0.5 10.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 6.0 5.9 1.2 0.0 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.0 9.1 7.8 2.1 0.1 24.0 9th
10th 1.3 4.9 9.4 11.0 6.8 1.9 0.2 35.4 10th
Total 1.3 4.9 10.2 15.1 17.8 17.0 13.6 9.3 5.8 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 46.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 14.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.2% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.5% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-6 1.4% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.1 1.3
9-7 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 2.9
8-8 5.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 5.6
7-9 9.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 9.1
6-10 13.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.4
5-11 17.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.8
4-12 17.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 17.7
3-13 15.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 15.1
2-14 10.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.2
1-15 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.9
0-16 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%