St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -16.8 #363
Expected Predictive Rating -18.7 #357
Pace 71.7 #111
Improvement +0.0 #172

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #358 D- F D- D D
Defense #352 F C D- C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #304 1.08 #273 -4.2 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #87 0.67 #288 +0.8 #141
Three Pointers 41% #180 0.90 #300 -2.4 #266
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #331 -5.8 #330
Freethrows 10.6 #365 71% #225 7.6 #365
Second Chance 25.5% #315 0.98 #259 0.25 #311
Turnovers 18.9% #301
Total Offense -9.2 #358

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #102 1.33 #339 -5.2 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #343 0.91 #348 +1.5 #79
Three Pointers 45% #81 1.24 #361 -6.9 #354
1st FG Attempt 1.23 #365 -10.5 #365
Freethrows 16.8 #166 74% #244 12.4 #184
Second Chance 32.4% #255 1.21 #339 0.39 #324
Turnovers 17.2% #142
Total Defense -7.6 #352

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #295 2.1% #339
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.7% #322 18.6% #365
Possession Length 17.7 #212 16.0 #29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #306 0.22 #310
Improvement +1.3 #99 -1.3 #265

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.8% 18.5% 5.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 61.5% 39.1% 64.8%
First Four0.6% 1.0% 0.6%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Away) - 13.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 45 - 155 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 42 @Oklahoma L 66-102 1%     -10.7   0 - 1 -20.9 -6.4 -12.5
  Thu, Nov 6 45 @TCU L 63-104 1%     -23.1   0 - 2 -26.2 -7.1 -15.1
  Tue, Nov 11 295 Mount St. Mary's L 66-74 28%     -5.1   0 - 3 -18.7 -9.1 -9.7
  Tue, Nov 18 327 @Lehigh L 62-79 18%     -9.4   0 - 4 -24.1 -15.6 -7.7
  Mon, Nov 24 83 Belmont L 57-94 2%     -16.2   0 - 5 -29.9 -14.7 -14.3
  Wed, Nov 26 128 Troy L 64-74 5%     2.1   0 - 6 -8.0 -10.2 +2.7
  Mon, Dec 1 101 @Xavier L 74-96 2%     -12.9   0 - 7 -13.9 -2.2 -9.5
  Sun, Dec 7 243 @Radford L 56-89 9%     -16.7   0 - 8 -34.8 -18.5 -16.5
  Sun, Dec 14 142 @Temple L 67-95 4%     -16.8   0 - 9 -24.0 -6.0 -18.2
  Wed, Dec 17 13 @Florida L 61-102 0.3%    -24.6   0 - 10 -19.7 -2.3 -16.1
  Sat, Dec 20 202 Robert Morris L 70-79 15%     -1.9   0 - 11 -14.6 +0.0 -15.5
  Fri, Jan 2 309 Le Moyne L 58-84 30%     -9.3   0 - 12 0 - 1 -37.4 -19.8 -18.7
  Sun, Jan 4 354 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85-82 48%     -0.3   1 - 12 1 - 1 -13.2 +0.5 -13.8
  Thu, Jan 8 303 @Wagner L 67-79 13%    
  Sat, Jan 10 191 @LIU Brooklyn L 68-86 5%    
  Sat, Jan 17 272 Central Connecticut St. L 69-77 24%    
  Mon, Jan 19 338 Stonehill L 68-70 42%    
  Fri, Jan 23 349 Chicago St. L 75-76 45%    
  Sun, Jan 25 329 @New Haven L 64-73 19%    
  Thu, Jan 29 349 @Chicago St. L 72-79 25%    
  Sat, Jan 31 329 New Haven L 67-70 38%    
  Thu, Feb 5 320 @Mercyhurst L 64-74 17%    
  Sat, Feb 7 309 @Le Moyne L 72-83 15%    
  Thu, Feb 12 354 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 72-79 27%    
  Thu, Feb 19 191 LIU Brooklyn L 71-83 14%    
  Sat, Feb 21 303 Wagner L 70-76 30%    
  Thu, Feb 26 338 @Stonehill L 65-73 23%    
  Sat, Feb 28 272 @Central Connecticut St. L 66-80 11%    
Projected Record 4 - 24 4 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.2 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.6 0.7 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.3 6.2 1.7 0.1 13.0 8th
9th 0.3 2.8 8.2 9.6 3.4 0.3 0.0 24.5 9th
10th 3.8 11.1 15.6 11.7 3.8 0.4 0.0 46.4 10th
Total 3.8 11.4 18.4 20.5 18.1 13.1 7.8 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 10.0% 0.0    0.0
11-5 2.1% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.2% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-6 0.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
9-7 1.8% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 1.7
8-8 4.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 4.0
7-9 7.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.7
6-10 13.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.0
5-11 18.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 18.0
4-12 20.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.5
3-13 18.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.4
2-14 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.4
1-15 3.8% 3.8
0-16
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.5%