St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#231
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#251
Pace70.5#135
Improvement+3.8#9

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#162
First Shot-1.2#218
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#77
Layup/Dunks+4.1#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#270
Freethrows-1.0#243
Improvement+2.2#29

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#297
First Shot-5.7#328
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#86
Layups/Dunks-1.2#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#311
Freethrows-2.4#300
Improvement+1.7#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 16.3% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 64.0% 72.3% 46.6%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 85.4% 76.6%
Conference Champion 13.9% 15.9% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.9% 2.1%
First Four7.6% 7.7% 7.5%
First Round11.2% 12.7% 8.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Away) - 67.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 415 - 715 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 264   @ George Washington L 72-75 47%     0 - 1 -5.6 -6.0 +0.6
  Nov 18, 2021 36   @ Virginia Tech L 55-85 6%     0 - 2 -15.6 -8.2 -8.6
  Nov 24, 2021 188   @ Cornell L 80-93 30%     0 - 3 -11.0 -0.6 -9.2
  Nov 28, 2021 316   @ Lehigh W 79-68 60%     1 - 3 +4.8 +4.9 +0.1
  Dec 01, 2021 309   Bucknell W 93-67 78%     2 - 3 +14.3 +9.6 +3.7
  Dec 04, 2021 89   @ Ohio L 75-78 13%     2 - 4 +5.9 +3.8 +2.2
  Dec 08, 2021 329   @ American W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 14, 2021 254   @ Hartford L 72-74 44%    
  Dec 18, 2021 17   @ Illinois L 66-87 3%    
  Dec 22, 2021 307   Robert Morris W 79-71 76%    
  Dec 29, 2021 120   Wagner L 68-72 37%    
  Dec 31, 2021 326   Fairleigh Dickinson W 84-74 81%    
  Jan 06, 2022 337   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 268   @ LIU Brooklyn L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 15, 2022 240   @ Merrimack L 63-65 42%    
  Jan 17, 2022 258   @ Bryant L 78-79 45%    
  Jan 21, 2022 347   Central Connecticut St. W 80-66 89%    
  Jan 23, 2022 291   Sacred Heart W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 27, 2022 120   @ Wagner L 65-75 20%    
  Jan 29, 2022 293   @ Mount St. Mary's W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 03, 2022 258   Bryant W 81-76 65%    
  Feb 05, 2022 240   Merrimack W 66-62 63%    
  Feb 10, 2022 326   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-77 63%    
  Feb 12, 2022 293   Mount St. Mary's W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 17, 2022 268   LIU Brooklyn W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 19, 2022 337   St. Francis Brooklyn W 80-68 86%    
  Feb 24, 2022 347   @ Central Connecticut St. W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 291   @ Sacred Heart W 75-74 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 3.9 2.7 1.1 0.2 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.3 7.8 5.2 1.8 0.3 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.8 6.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.0 4.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.9 7.2 10.4 12.6 14.3 13.9 12.1 9.2 5.8 3.0 1.1 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.0
16-2 89.5% 2.7    2.2 0.5 0.0
15-3 68.6% 3.9    2.6 1.3 0.1
14-4 39.4% 3.6    1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 16.1% 1.9    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
12-6 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 8.3 4.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 47.9% 47.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 45.4% 45.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
16-2 3.0% 37.5% 37.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.9
15-3 5.8% 32.9% 32.9% 15.5 0.1 0.8 1.0 3.9
14-4 9.2% 28.0% 28.0% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.9 6.6
13-5 12.1% 21.7% 21.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.4 9.5
12-6 13.9% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.4 11.4
11-7 14.3% 14.5% 14.5% 16.0 0.0 2.1 12.2
10-8 12.6% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 1.0 11.6
9-9 10.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 10.1
8-10 7.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.2
7-11 4.9% 4.9
6-12 2.9% 2.9
5-13 1.5% 1.5
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.7 11.5 85.3 0.0%