St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.6 356
Expected Predictive Rating -16.3 355
Pace 73.7 48
Improvement +3.4 64

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 318 D+ D D+ D- D+
Defense F+ 359 F F+ B- D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 302 C- 55% 242 -3.3 293
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 94 D 33% 326 +0.3 155
Three Pointers 41% 168 C 34% 161 +0.5 162
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 284 C- -1.9 243
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 265
Second Chance D+ 26.7% 286 D 0.94 302 D 0.25 312
Turnovers D+ 18.7% 300
Freethrows D 0.26 318 D+ 70% 267 D- 0.18 327
Total Offense D -6.1 318

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 285 D 13.5% 316
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 162 C- 5.8% 241
Three Pointers C+ 87% 126 B- 0.6% 104
Total C- 54% 205 C- 6.3% 258

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 105 F 68% 361 +6.2 351
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 335 C 38% 193 -2.1 27
Three Pointers 43% 105 F+ 39% 360 +4.5 344
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 333 F +7.4 363
1st FG Attempt F 1.19 364
Second Chance D 33.5% 301 F+ 1.19 351 F+ 0.40 347
Turnovers B- 18.1% 103
Freethrows D- 0.36 327 C 72% 162 D 0.26 323
Total Defense F+ -8.5 359

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 195 F+ 4.1% 360
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 39% 342 C 4.8% 177
Three Pointers D+ 87% 282 D- -0.1% 354
Total D+ 61% 296 F+ 2.4% 358

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 158 15.8 8
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 266 0.23 338
Improvement +5.4 #5 -2.0 #289

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 2% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 51% 28% 70%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Wagner (Home) - 46.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 46 - 166 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 51 @Oklahoma L 66 - 102 1% -11  6% 0 - 1 F -22 F -10 D D D- F -10 F+ F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 50 @TCU L 63 - 104 1% -23  0% 0 - 2 F -27 F -10 C- F C F -13 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 288 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 74 34% -5  18% 0 - 3 F -18 F -11 F+ F+ D D- -7 F B C+
 Tue, Nov 18 305 @Lehigh L 62 - 79 20% -9  1% 0 - 4 F -23 F -18 F C+ F D+ -4 D- F B
 Mon, Nov 24 68 Belmont L 57 - 94 3% -16  2% 0 - 5 F -29 F -19 F F F F+ -9 F C C
 Wed, Nov 26 146 Troy L 64 - 74 8% +2  62% 0 - 6 D -9 F -14 C- F F B+ +6 C C- A+
 Mon, Dec 1 82 @Xavier L 74 - 96 2% -13  0% 0 - 7 D- -12 D -4 C- C D+ D -5 C- D D
 Sun, Dec 7 233 @Radford L 56 - 89 11% -17  1% 0 - 8 F -34 F -21 F F D F -14 F F C
 Sun, Dec 14 151 @Temple L 67 - 95 6% -17  0% 0 - 9 F -25 D- -8 D+ C+ D F -17 F A- C-
 Wed, Dec 17 4 @Florida L 61 - 102 0% -25  0% 0 - 10 F+ -15 D+ -2 C C- C+ F -11 F F A
 Sat, Dec 20 177 Robert Morris L 70 - 79 16% -2  38% 0 - 11 D- -13 C- -2 C- A A F -12 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 296 Le Moyne L 58 - 84 35% -9  23% 0 - 12 0 - 1 F -37 F -19 F F C F -19 F F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85 - 82 48% -0  30% 1 - 12 1 - 1 D -11 C +1 D+ A C F -12 D D- F
 Thu, Jan 8 324 @Wagner W 71 - 69 25% -1  33% 2 - 12 2 - 1 D+ -5 D+ -3 C- C- D- C- -2 C D- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 213 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 67 9% -1  31% 2 - 13 2 - 2 C- -4 F -12 C F D- A- +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 292 Central Connecticut St. L 90 - 98 34% -7  0% 2 - 14 2 - 3 F -18 A- +10 B- A- A- F -29 F B F
 Mon, Jan 19 344 Stonehill W 63 - 61 54% -3  16% 3 - 14 3 - 3 D- -14 F -12 F C- B- C- -2 F+ C- A+
 Fri, Jan 23 351 Chicago St. W 81 - 60 58% +13  97% 4 - 14 4 - 3 C+ +4 C +0 A F C- B +5 C+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 31 325 New Haven L 69 - 81 46% -5  17% 4 - 15 4 - 4 F -26 D -6 D C- C+ F -21 F C- F+
 Thu, Feb 5 301 @Mercyhurst L 89 - 98 OT 18% -3  23% 4 - 16 4 - 5 D- -14 B- +5 B+ F+ D+ F -18 C F C+
 Sat, Feb 7 296 @Le Moyne L 84 - 86 18% +3  72% 4 - 17 4 - 6 D+ -7 C -0 C+ C C- D -6 F B A+
 Mon, Feb 9 351 @Chicago St. L 75 - 80 36% -7  10% 4 - 18 4 - 7 F+ -16 D- -7 F+ C+ F F+ -8 C- F B
 Thu, Feb 12 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 59 - 66 27% -5  3% 4 - 19 4 - 8 F+ -15 F -16 F C- C C +0 D- F A
 Sat, Feb 14 301 Mercyhurst L 79 - 94 36% -9  7% 4 - 20 4 - 9 F -26 C +2 A- F A- F -28 F F D
 Thu, Feb 19 213 LIU Brooklyn L 89 - 91 21% -1  37% 4 - 21 4 - 10 D+ -8 B- +5 A+ F F F -12 F A F
 Sat, Feb 21 324 Wagner L 76 - 77 46%
 Tue, Feb 24 325 @New Haven L 66 - 73 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 344 @Stonehill L 67 - 72 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 292 @Central Connecticut St. L 72 - 82 17%
Totals 5 - 24 5 - 13 -15 D -6 D C- D+ F+ -9 C D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- D C C- 34% 45% 41% D+ D+ D+ D D D+ D D+ D- F+ F C F+ F 42% 15% 43% D F D F+ F+ B- D- C D
1.00 55% 33% 34% -2 -1 0.97 27% 0.9 .25 19% .26 70% .18 1.21 68% 38% 39% +7 +1 1.19 33% 1.2 .40 18% .36 72% .19
Nov
3		 Oklahoma F A- F D D 34% 38% 28% F+ D C F D D- F D F F F+ F C+ D 57% 2% 41% F F+ F+ D- F C+ B- B- B
0.89 65% 23% 31% -5 -3 0.88 30% 0.8 .25 19% .17 70% .12 1.38 70% 100% 33% +7 +4 1.24 40% 1.4 .57 15% .29 72% .21
Nov
6		 TCU F D+ F B D+ 46% 21% 33% B- C- F C- F C F A+ F F F F D- F 35% 9% 56% D F F D- F A- F F F
0.81 50% 25% 37% -5 0 0.93 13% 1.0 .13 21% .10 83% .08 1.34 74% 60% 39% +11 +1 1.27 47% 1.2 .56 19% .45 86% .38
Nov
11		 Mount St. Mary's F C D F F+ 28% 30% 42% F+ F+ A- F F+ D C- C- D+ D- F F+ F F 29% 15% 56% B F B+ C B C+ D+ A+ A
0.96 56% 35% 25% -7 -2 0.84 38% 0.5 .19 16% .31 72% .22 1.07 79% 43% 41% +12 0 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 39% .13
Nov
18		 Lehigh F F B C- F 43% 27% 31% C- F D- A+ C+ F F D- F D+ D F C- D- 43% 16% 41% F D- F D- F B F A- F
0.85 33% 46% 33% -9 0 0.84 28% 1.3 .36 25% .24 69% .16 1.08 62% 50% 35% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.1 .35 20% .45 65% .29
Nov
24		 Belmont F F A+ F F 33% 15% 52% B- F D F F F C D+ C- F+ D B F F 42% 6% 53% D+ F B F C C A- F B-
0.79 41% 50% 22% -13 0 0.77 27% 0.7 .20 24% .27 73% .20 1.31 68% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.40 24% 1.5 .36 18% .24 79% .19
Nov
26		 Troy F F B- A+ C 30% 28% 41% D- C- C F F F B- B+ B B+ C- A B- 57% 0% 43% F C F B+ C- A+ F A+ F
0.87 36% 46% 42% +1 -2 1.00 31% 0.6 .20 30% .31 75% .23 1.01 58% 28% -4 +4 1.02 40% 0.9 .34 26% .55 63% .35
Dec
1		 Xavier D C- F B- C- 37% 25% 39% C C- F A+ C D+ D A+ C D D- F A- C+ 43% 12% 46% F C- F+ C D D B B+ B+
0.95 57% 29% 36% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.3 .23 19% .24 80% .19 1.24 69% 50% 29% +3 +1 1.10 33% 1.0 .33 10% .22 67% .14
Dec
7		 Radford F F B- D+ F 31% 23% 46% D- F F+ F F D F C F F D C- F F 35% 9% 56% D F D F F C A+ C+ A+
0.81 38% 42% 33% -6 -1 0.88 24% 0.7 .17 20% .13 71% .09 1.28 63% 40% 40% +7 +1 1.19 32% 1.6 .52 17% .24 71% .17
Dec
14		 Temple D- C F D D 46% 15% 38% B D+ C- A- C+ D F+ F F F D+ F F F 48% 6% 46% F F A+ F A- C- A+ F A
0.97 58% 25% 30% -4 +1 0.96 27% 1.2 .32 17% .23 54% .12 1.37 62% 67% 60% +21 +3 1.50 14% 1.3 .18 13% .23 86% .20
Dec
17		 Florida D+ C+ A- F B- 30% 44% 26% F C C D+ C- C+ F B F+ F F F F+ F 41% 8% 51% C F F F F A F+ F F
0.84 53% 44% 20% -4 -4 0.86 21% 0.6 .13 17% .18 73% .13 1.41 81% 75% 38% +16 +2 1.37 54% 1.3 .71 21% .42 83% .35
Dec
20		 Robert Morris C- B- F A- C 31% 24% 45% D- C- D A+ A A F F F F C- A+ F F 42% 11% 47% F F A+ B A+ C+ F F+ F
1.10 63% 17% 39% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 11% .18 50% .09 1.24 58% 20% 52% +11 +2 1.27 24% 1.0 .24 19% .44 74% .33
Jan
2		 Le Moyne F D F C- F+ 24% 28% 48% F F D+ F F C B F D F D- C F F 38% 17% 45% C+ F F F F C+ A- A+ A
0.86 50% 21% 33% -7 -2 0.84 28% 0.5 .14 15% .35 55% .19 1.25 67% 38% 52% +16 0 1.34 38% 1.3 .48 21% .26 57% .15
Jan
4		 Fairleigh Dickinson C F A B C- 22% 24% 53% F+ D+ D A+ A C A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ D- 33% 24% 43% B D A F D- F F F F
1.18 45% 50% 38% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.7 .40 15% .49 83% .41 1.14 69% 50% 24% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.6 .37 13% .52 79% .41
Jan
8		 Wagner D+ B C- D+ C- 40% 17% 44% C- C- C- C+ C- D- D+ A+ B- C- F A+ A+ C 35% 26% 39% B- C F B- D- C+ F A- D
1.09 63% 38% 33% +2 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 17% .35 84% .30 1.06 88% 17% 22% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.0 .42 20% .37 63% .23
Jan
10		 LIU Brooklyn F F D- A+ C+ 38% 26% 36% D- C F A+ F D- F F F A- A- B+ A+ A+ 47% 33% 20% B+ A+ F F F A+ F B+ F
0.88 42% 31% 50% +1 -1 1.02 10% 1.3 .13 21% .25 57% .14 0.94 48% 33% 0% -17 -1 0.67 51% 1.2 .61 27% .48 60% .29
Jan
17		 Central Connecticut St. A- B- C+ A A- 18% 30% 52% F B- A B- A- A- A F B+ F F D F F 28% 34% 38% C+ F A+ F B F F C- F
1.32 60% 41% 41% +7 -3 1.11 41% 1.1 .44 9% .35 73% .26 1.43 85% 44% 56% +22 -2 1.40 16% 1.3 .20 10% .55 79% .44
Jan
19		 Stonehill F F F C- F 45% 25% 29% C- F D B+ C- B- A+ F A+ C- C- A+ C- D 50% 5% 45% F F+ B- D- C- A+ F F F
0.93 43% 15% 33% -13 0 0.76 23% 1.2 .28 10% .46 61% .28 0.90 55% 0% 33% -4 +3 1.00 25% 1.0 .25 31% .45 76% .34
Jan
23		 Chicago St. C A+ F+ A+ A+ 28% 22% 50% F+ A F+ F F C- D A+ C B B- A+ D- C+ 26% 38% 36% B C+ F A C B+ B+ A+ A+
1.21 92% 30% 48% +18 -1 1.37 27% 0.7 .18 19% .30 88% .26 0.90 50% 25% 37% -5 -3 0.85 37% 0.7 .26 19% .20 45% .09
Jan
31		 New Haven D B F D D- 44% 18% 38% C D D B+ C- C+ B+ F C+ F F A+ F F 36% 20% 43% C- F B F C- F+ F F+ F
1.04 64% 11% 32% -4 +1 0.96 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 67% .21 1.22 81% 0% 53% +13 0 1.27 19% 1.2 .22 15% .48 78% .37
Feb
5		 Mercyhurst B- C- B- A+ A- 44% 18% 39% C B+ C- F F+ D+ C- D D+ F A- F A B- 41% 22% 37% F C F F F C+ F F F
1.15 56% 40% 45% +6 +1 1.16 32% 0.8 .24 19% .35 68% .24 1.27 45% 58% 25% -6 0 0.91 49% 1.4 .67 17% .47 80% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Le Moyne C F F A+ B 29% 29% 43% F C+ C- B C C- A+ F B D F B- F F 55% 7% 38% F F C+ A B A+ F B- F
1.09 38% 25% 54% +3 -2 1.05 29% 1.2 .34 16% .42 63% .26 1.12 87% 33% 44% +21 +3 1.50 23% 0.8 .18 27% .56 68% .38
Feb
9		 Chicago St. D- A+ A+ F F+ 32% 7% 61% C+ F+ C B- C+ F A+ C- A+ F+ D A B C+ 38% 24% 38% F C- F F F B F D F
1.06 93% 67% 19% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.2 .41 25% .53 75% .40 1.13 59% 27% 29% -5 -1 0.91 40% 1.2 .49 18% .57 79% .45
Feb
12		 Fairleigh Dickinson F F+ F F F 37% 16% 47% C+ F B+ F C- C C+ D C C F F A+ F 28% 28% 44% A- D- B F F A F A+ F
0.90 50% 25% 22% -14 0 0.76 36% 0.7 .24 15% .36 70% .25 1.01 80% 60% 19% +2 -2 1.03 28% 1.8 .48 23% .56 57% .32
Feb
14		 Mercyhurst C B+ F+ A+ A- 55% 15% 30% B A- F C F A- A+ F A F F F F F 38% 22% 40% F F F F F D F F F
1.15 65% 29% 43% +7 +2 1.19 19% 1.0 .19 15% .56 61% .34 1.37 79% 55% 40% +15 0 1.32 33% 1.5 .50 13% .30 89% .27
Feb
19		 LIU Brooklyn B- D+ A+ A+ A+ 55% 12% 33% B+ A+ B- F F F B- A+ A- F F C+ F F 60% 24% 16% F+ F B- A+ A F D- A+ C
1.16 54% 50% 65% +14 +2 1.35 38% 0.5 .21 27% .36 80% .29 1.18 73% 38% 56% +14 +1 1.33 32% 0.6 .21 16% .34 55% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 0.8 0.6 1.4 6th
7th 2.1 4.9 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 1.2 12.5 1.9 15.6 8th
9th 10.2 34.1 12.1 0.0 56.4 9th
10th 14.0 5.2 0.0 19.2 10th
Total 24.2 40.5 26.8 7.6 1.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 1.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0
7-9 7.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.4
6-10 26.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.6 26.2
5-11 40.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.7 39.8
4-12 24.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 23.9
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 98.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 17.6%