IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-12.3	#352
Expected Predictive Rating	+1.5	#106

Pace	67.8	#204
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.6	#348

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.7	#345

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.1%	13.8%	6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.9	15.7	15.9

.500 or above	11.8%	36.2%	11.3%
.500 or above in Conference	30.1%	50.7%	29.7%
Conference Champion	1.3%	2.9%	1.2%
Last Place in Conference	21.7%	8.7%	22.0%

First Four	6.2%	10.4%	6.1%
First Round	3.8%	8.3%	3.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 2.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	0 - 3	0 - 7
Quad 4	7 - 9	8 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	48	@ Oklahoma	L	66-102	2%	0 - 1			-21.6	-4.7	-14.8
Nov 06, 2025	85	@ TCU	L	58-79	2%
Nov 11, 2025	253	Mount St. Mary's	L	67-71	35%
Nov 18, 2025	294	@ Lehigh	L	65-73	23%
Nov 24, 2025	106	Belmont	L	67-83	7%
Dec 01, 2025	65	@ Xavier	L	60-84	2%
Dec 07, 2025	160	@ Radford	L	61-76	10%
Dec 14, 2025	133	@ Temple	L	65-82	7%
Dec 17, 2025	6	@ Florida	L	57-92	0.1%
Jan 04, 2026	348	Fairleigh Dickinson	W	73-70	59%
Jan 08, 2026	344	@ Wagner	L	65-69	37%
Jan 17, 2026	310	Central Connecticut St.	L	65-66	46%
Jan 19, 2026	334	Stonehill	W	68-67	53%
Jan 23, 2026	347	Chicago St.	W	73-71	59%
Jan 25, 2026	362	@ New Haven	L	70-71	49%
Jan 29, 2026	347	@ Chicago St.	L	70-74	38%
Jan 31, 2026	362	New Haven	W	73-67	69%
Feb 05, 2026	361	@ Mercyhurst	L	66-67	48%
Feb 12, 2026	348	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	L	70-73	38%
Feb 21, 2026	344	Wagner	W	68-66	56%
Feb 26, 2026	334	@ Stonehill	L	65-70	34%
Feb 28, 2026	310	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	62-69	27%
Projected Record						7 - 15	6 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2					1.3	1st
2nd									0.0	0.2	1.2	1.3	0.6	0.1					3.4	2nd
3rd									0.2	1.7	2.7	1.0	0.1						5.6	3rd
4th								0.2	2.1	4.4	1.5	0.2							8.4	4th
5th						0.0	0.2	2.3	5.1	2.2	0.2								10.0	5th
6th					0.0	0.2	2.5	6.0	3.3	0.3									12.4	6th
7th				0.0	0.3	2.6	6.1	4.6	0.6	0.0									14.3	7th
8th		0.0	0.1	0.6	2.8	6.6	4.6	0.8	0.0										15.4	8th
9th	0.0	0.2	1.1	3.9	5.6	4.0	1.1	0.0											15.8	9th
10th	0.5	2.1	3.8	4.0	2.4	0.5	0.0												13.4	10th

Total	0.6	2.3	5.0	8.4	11.1	14.0	14.5	14.0	11.3	8.7	5.7	2.9	1.2	0.3						Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3	75.4%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
12-4	44.7%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-5	15.5%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.1%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	1.3%	1.3		0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3	0.3%		50.9%	50.9%		16.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1
12-4	1.2%		34.6%	34.6%		17.9														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8
11-5	2.9%		27.7%	27.7%		18.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	2.1
10-6	5.7%		22.0%	22.0%		17.9															0.0	0.1	1.3	4.4
9-7	8.7%		13.5%	13.5%		16.8																0.1	1.2	7.5
8-8	11.3%		9.2%	9.2%		16.1																0.0	1.0	10.3
7-9	14.0%		6.5%	6.5%		16.2																	0.9	13.1
6-10	14.5%		4.2%	4.2%		16.0																	0.6	13.9
5-11	14.0%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0																	0.4	13.6
4-12	11.1%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.2	11.0
3-13	8.4%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	8.3
2-14	5.0%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	4.9
1-15	2.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	2.3
0-16	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		7.1%	7.1%	0.0%	16.9														0.0	0.0	0.5	7.0	92.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%