St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.6 #358
Expected Predictive Rating -14.4 #353
Pace 72.2 #85
Improvement +3.6 #39

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #341 D+ D D+ F+ D
Defense #356 F+ D- C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #315 1.09 #261 -4.2 #319
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #83 0.65 #329 +0.7 #135
Three Pointers 41% #178 1.01 #189 +0.1 #176
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #288 -3.4 #280
Freethrows 0.24 #349 70% #257 0.17 #349
Second Chance 26.0% #305 0.95 #285 0.25 #316
Turnovers 18.5% #284
Total Offense -6.8 #341

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #129 1.33 #348 -4.6 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #330 0.74 #149 +2.2 #30
Three Pointers 44% #91 1.19 #356 -5.3 #350
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #362 -7.7 #362
Freethrows 0.35 #300 72% #198 0.25 #291
Second Chance 33.9% #308 1.16 #335 0.39 #336
Turnovers 18.2% #109
Total Defense -7.7 #356

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #307 1.6% #315
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.0% #264 13.4% #361
Possession Length 17.4 #192 15.9 #13
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #279 0.21 #314
Improvement +4.9 #9 -1.2 #256

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 1.8% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.7% 38.0% 12.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.6% 5.3% 17.7%
First Four1.6% 1.8% 1.5%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Away) - 17.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 47 - 147 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 57 @Oklahoma L 66 - 102 1% -11  0 - 1 -24 -7 D D+ D -15 F F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 50 @TCU L 63 - 104 1% -23  0 - 2 -28 -8 C- F C -16 F F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 298 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 74 36% -5  0 - 3 -19 -9 F D- D+ -10 F B C
 Tue, Nov 18 304 @Lehigh L 62 - 79 19% -9  0 - 4 -22 -15 F C F -7 F+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 74 Belmont L 57 - 94 3% -16  0 - 5 -29 -16 F F F -12 F C C
 Wed, Nov 26 136 Troy L 64 - 74 8% +2  0 - 6 -9 -12 C- F F +4 C C A+
 Mon, Dec 1 85 @Xavier L 74 - 96 2% -13  0 - 7 -13 -2 C- C C- -9 C- D- D
 Sun, Dec 7 232 @Radford L 56 - 89 11% -17  0 - 8 -34 -18 F F D+ -16 F F C
 Sun, Dec 14 143 @Temple L 67 - 95 5% -17  0 - 9 -24 -4 D+ C+ D+ -20 F A- C-
 Wed, Dec 17 7 @Florida L 61 - 102 0% -25  0 - 10 -16 -1 C C C -14 F F A
 Sat, Dec 20 214 Robert Morris L 70 - 79 21% -2  0 - 11 -15 +0 C- A- A+ -16 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 296 Le Moyne L 58 - 84 35% -9  0 - 12 0 - 1 -37 -18 F F C -20 F F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 332 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85 - 82 48% -0  1 - 12 1 - 1 -11 +3 D A- B- -14 D+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 327 @Wagner W 71 - 69 25% -1  2 - 12 2 - 1 -5 -1 C- C D -4 C D- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 204 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 67 9% -1  2 - 13 2 - 2 -4 -9 C F D +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 299 Central Connecticut St. L 90 - 98 37% -7  2 - 14 2 - 3 -19 +13 C+ A A- -32 F B F
 Mon, Jan 19 333 Stonehill W 63 - 61 48% -3  3 - 14 3 - 3 -12 -9 F C B- -3 D- C A+
 Fri, Jan 23 357 Chicago St. W 81 - 60 61% +13  4 - 14 4 - 3 +4 +3 A+ F C+ +1 C+ C B
 Sat, Jan 31 329 New Haven L 69 - 81 46% -5  4 - 15 4 - 4 -26 -4 D D+ C+ -23 F C- F
 Thu, Feb 5 300 @Mercyhurst L 89 - 98 OT 19% -3  4 - 16 4 - 5 -14 +7 B+ F+ C- -20 C F C
 Sat, Feb 7 296 @Le Moyne L 73 - 83 18%
 Mon, Feb 9 357 @Chicago St. L 75 - 78 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 332 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 71 - 78 26%
 Thu, Feb 19 204 LIU Brooklyn L 71 - 80 20%
 Sat, Feb 21 327 Wagner L 74 - 75 45%
 Tue, Feb 24 329 @New Haven L 65 - 72 26%
 Thu, Feb 26 333 @Stonehill L 65 - 72 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 299 @Central Connecticut St. L 70 - 80 18%
Totals 6 - 22 6 - 11 -15 -7 D+ D D+ -8 F+ D- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 0.3 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 1.8 0.1 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 5.0 0.7 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 7.9 3.9 0.1 13.6 7th
8th 0.2 4.4 15.0 10.6 0.9 31.1 8th
9th 6.3 16.6 11.8 1.9 36.6 9th
10th 3.4 2.0 0.1 5.5 10th
Total 9.8 23.1 28.6 21.8 11.5 4.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.2% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-6 0.9% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-7 4.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.0
8-8 11.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 11.3
7-9 21.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 21.4
6-10 28.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.4 28.2
5-11 23.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 22.8
4-12 9.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 9.7
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.2%