Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #185
Expected Predictive Rating -3.1 #219
Pace 72.6 #82
Improvement +3.3 #45

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #196 B- D- C- D- A+
Defense #190 C+ C- D+ B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #37 1.27 #67 +6.4 #17
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #351 0.78 #136 -4.4 #354
Three Pointers 46% #81 0.91 #308 +0.1 #181
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #116 +2.1 #118
Freethrows 14.3 #328 72% #208 10.3 #315
Second Chance 23.7% #337 1.04 #191 0.25 #322
Turnovers 17.3% #235
Total Offense -1.1 #196

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #96 1.08 #86 -0.3 #186
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #88 0.90 #344 -2.9 #350
Three Pointers 35% #327 0.96 #108 +4.0 #39
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #143 +0.8 #153
Freethrows 13.2 #22 76% #320 10.0 #35
Second Chance 32.0% #249 1.08 #235 0.35 #247
Turnovers 15.0% #267
Total Defense -0.7 #190

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.9% #12 -0.2% #145
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.5% #167 -1.8% #150
Possession Length 17.2 #161 16.7 #83
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #168 0.19 #240
Improvement +4.4 #10 -1.1 #260

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 7.2% 11.2% 2.4%
.500 or above in Conference 5.5% 8.9% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.4% 9.0% 23.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 54.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 35 - 86 - 15
Quad 46 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 36% -9  0 - 1 -14 +3 C D+ C -17 F F F
 Mon, Nov 10 262 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 53% +6  1 - 1 +6 -8 D- D+ F +14 A+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 14 3 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  1 - 2 -13 -4 C+ D- D- -6 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 229 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 69% +5  2 - 2 +2 -14 F F C +16 A+ B- C
 Sat, Nov 22 296 Ball St. W 70 - 52 80% +2  3 - 2 +7 -2 C F D +11 A+ C A+
 Wed, Nov 26 229 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 46% -1  3 - 3 -3 +6 A+ F B+ -9 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 347 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 84% -11  3 - 4 -19 -13 F C F -5 F C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 324 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 85% +11  4 - 4 +9 +6 B+ F C+ +5 C A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 246 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 49% +1  5 - 4 +0 +0 A+ C- F +0 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 118 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 44% -1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -9 +0 C F A+ -7 C+ D F
 Sun, Dec 21 89 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 15% -15  5 - 6 0 - 2 -11 -1 B+ F C -10 D A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 81 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 28% -2  6 - 6 1 - 2 +5 +3 A+ D+ C- +3 A+ B B+
 Thu, Jan 1 110 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 21% -1  6 - 7 1 - 3 -2 +7 A+ F C -10 D F C
 Sun, Jan 4 157 @Drake L 72 - 74 32% +0  6 - 8 1 - 4 +1 +9 C+ A+ F -8 F D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 274 Evansville L 69 - 72 76% -0  6 - 9 1 - 5 -12 -7 F C B -5 F A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 89 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 31% +6  7 - 9 2 - 5 +8 +25 A+ D A+ -16 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 98 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 17% -5  7 - 10 2 - 6 +4 +7 B- A C- -3 B- D- C
 Wed, Jan 21 118 @Bradley L 68 - 75 24% +3  7 - 11 2 - 7 -1 -3 A F F +2 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 157 Drake W 75 - 74 54%
 Tue, Jan 27 150 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 76 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 167 Valparaiso W 73 - 71 57%
 Tue, Feb 3 274 @Evansville W 73 - 72 55%
 Mon, Feb 9 143 Southern Illinois W 75 - 74 50%
 Thu, Feb 12 98 Murray St. L 82 - 86 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 167 @Valparaiso L 70 - 74 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 110 Northern Iowa L 64 - 67 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 81 @Belmont L 74 - 86 13%
 Wed, Feb 25 143 @Southern Illinois L 72 - 78 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 150 Illinois-Chicago W 74 - 73 53%
Totals 12 - 17 7 - 13 -2 -1 B- D- C- -1 C+ C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.8 0.1 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.5 4.0 0.5 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.4 7.3 1.6 0.0 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 6.2 10.1 3.4 0.1 20.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 6.5 13.3 13.7 5.0 0.3 40.2 10th
11th 0.4 2.1 3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.6 11th
Total 0.5 3.4 9.5 16.3 20.8 20.0 15.1 9.0 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.3
11-9 1.3% 4.0% 4.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-10 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8
9-11 9.0% 2.2% 2.2% 14.4 0.1 0.1 8.8
8-12 15.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.2 0.2 0.1 14.8
7-13 20.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 19.8
6-14 20.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 20.7
5-15 16.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.2
4-16 9.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.5
3-17 3.4% 3.4
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.0 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%