Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.0 195
Results Rating -5.1 247
Consistency 0.14 110
Pace 70.1 130
Improvement +2.6 85

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 221 B- D+ D F+ A-
Defense C 175 C C+ D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 32 B 65% 54 +6.5 14
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 341 C 38% 169 -4.1 352
Three Pointers 45% 89 D+ 32% 280 +0.7 155
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.8 9 C+ +1.2 121
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 86
Second Chance D 25.6% 309 C 1.02 203 D+ 0.26 289
Opponents' Steals D- 11.5% 338
Other Turnovers C- 7.5% 222
Turnovers D 19.0% 321
Freethrows D- 0.25 339 D- 68% 329 F+ 0.17 353
Total Offense C- -1.9 221

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots A- 61% 21 D+ 12.3% 258
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 30% 104 C 5.4% 216
Three Pointers B- 87% 107 D 1.4% 305
Total A- 67% 13 D+ 6.6% 303


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 122 C+ 56% 109 +0.4 193
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 103 F 46% 356 +2.5 342
Three Pointers 36% 306 B- 32% 75 -3.4 44
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 147 C -0.5 155
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 154
Second Chance D+ 32.7% 281 B+ 0.91 31 C+ 0.30 139
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.7% 244
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 282
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 275
Freethrows B 0.26 54 C+ 72% 126 B 0.19 53
Total Defense C -0.1 175

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 39 C- 9.9% 215
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 37 D+ 3.4% 275
Three Pointers B- 81% 96 C- 0.6% 227
Total A- 46% 22 C- 5.0% 211

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 203 16.9 97
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 201 0.21 307
Consistency 0.13 250 0.12 123
Improvement +2.6 65 +0.0 189

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 198 195 192
Results Rating Rank 249 248 246
Conference Record 4 - 16 4 - 16 4 - 16
Conference Finish 10 10 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 32 - 93 - 18
Quad 46 - 39 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 178 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 35% -9  9% 0 - 1 D- -14 C -0 C+ D+ C F -14 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 260 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 51% +6  88% 1 - 1 B- +7 F+ -9 F+ C- F A+ +16 A+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 1 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  13% 1 - 2 D+ -8 D+ -3 B D+ F+ C- -2 B- F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 190 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 60% +5  95% 2 - 2 C+ +4 F -15 D- F B- A+ +20 A+ B D
 Sat, Nov 22 280 Ball St. W 70 - 52 78% +2  39% 3 - 2 B- +8 C- -2 B- D- D A +11 A- C A-
 Wed, Nov 26 190 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 37% -1  34% 3 - 3 C -1 B- +5 A F A- D -5 D F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 354 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 88% -11  1% 3 - 4 F -22 F -17 F C- F+ D+ -4 F C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 337 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 89% +11  89% 4 - 4 B- +7 C+ +2 B+ F B- B+ +6 C- A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 271 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 55% +1  45% 5 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 A- C- F B- +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 111 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 40% -1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -9 C- -2 C- F A D+ -4 B- D F
 Sun, Dec 21 104 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 18% -15  10% 5 - 6 0 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 B F C+ F+ -10 D A F
 Mon, Dec 29 75 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 26% -2  24% 6 - 6 1 - 2 B- +6 C- -2 B+ D+ C- A- +7 A B B+
 Thu, Jan 1 81 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 13% -1  32% 6 - 7 1 - 3 C +1 B- +5 A+ F C+ D+ -4 C F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 186 @Drake L 72 - 74 37% +0  48% 6 - 8 1 - 4 C -1 B- +4 C A+ F D+ -5 F D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 295 Evansville L 69 - 72 79% -0  37% 6 - 9 1 - 5 D- -14 F -13 F C C+ C -1 F A B
 Wed, Jan 14 104 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 36% +6  87% 7 - 9 2 - 5 B- +7 A+ +22 A+ F A+ F -16 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 129 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 24% -5  1% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C +1 C+ +3 C A- C- C -1 C D C
 Wed, Jan 21 111 @Bradley L 68 - 75 21% +3  82% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -1 D -6 A- F F B+ +5 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 186 Drake L 62 - 76 60% -5  4% 7 - 12 2 - 8 F -19 F -20 C- F F C+ +2 B- A D
 Tue, Jan 27 107 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 20% -9  1% 7 - 13 2 - 9 B- +5 B +6 A+ A+ F C -1 F+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 162 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 53% +3  72% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D+ -7 D -5 B- F C C- -2 B C D
 Tue, Feb 3 295 @Evansville W 84 - 63 60% +15  98% 8 - 14 3 - 10 A- +16 A+ +17 A+ A- B- B- +2 C+ C+ D
 Mon, Feb 9 124 Southern Illinois L 65 - 80 44% -7  10% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -15 F+ -9 D B F+ D -5 D- B+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 129 Murray St. L 72 - 74 45% -9  0% 8 - 16 3 - 12 C- -3 C- -1 A F+ F+ C- -2 B- F A+
 Sun, Feb 15 162 @Valparaiso L 75 - 76 31% -3  13% 8 - 17 3 - 13 C+ +2 A +13 A- A A F -11 F F C
 Wed, Feb 18 81 Northern Iowa L 60 - 81 27% -3  35% 8 - 18 3 - 14 F+ -17 D -6 B- C- F F -13 F B+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 75 @Belmont L 70 - 87 12% -10  6% 8 - 19 3 - 15 D+ -6 D- -6 C D- C C+ +1 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 124 @Southern Illinois L 55 - 66 23% -9  15% 8 - 20 3 - 16 D+ -5 F -13 D- C- F A- +7 A B+ F
 Sun, Mar 1 107 Illinois-Chicago W 79 - 63 38% +6  59% 9 - 20 4 - 16 A- +17 B+ +8 A+ F F A +9 B- A+ A
 Thu, Mar 5 162 Valparaiso L 62 - 63 41% +5  88% 9 - 21 C -1 C- -2 B C F C+ +1 C+ B+ D+
Totals 9 - 21 4 - 16 -2 C- -2 A C+ A- C +0 D+ D- F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B C D+ C+ 45% 22% 45% A- B- D C D+ D D- D- F+ C C+ F B- C 41% 23% 36% C C D+ B+ C+ D+ B C+ B
1.06 65% 38% 32% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.0 .26 19% .25 68% .17 1.09 56% 46% 32% -1 0 1.01 33% 0.9 .30 15% .26 72% .18
Nov
3		 Charlotte C B B- F+ C 44% 10% 46% A C+ F+ B+ D+ C B C B F C A+ F C- 51% 12% 37% D- D+ F D F F F B+ F
1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25 1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33
Nov
10		 SIU Edwardsville F+ F A F F 37% 8% 55% A F+ B- D- C- F C B C+ A+ C A- A+ A 29% 45% 25% A+ A+ D- A+ A+ B+ B- B+ B
0.90 44% 50% 26% -11 +1 0.84 35% 0.9 .30 24% .31 76% .24 0.77 56% 28% 21% -10 -4 0.75 33% 0.4 .14 21% .23 62% .14
Nov
14		 Duke D+ C F D+ C 43% 6% 51% A+ B C+ F D+ F+ B+ F C+ C- C- D C+ B 53% 4% 44% D- B- F F F C+ B- A- B
0.81 52% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 24% .26 60% .15 1.31 66% 50% 33% +4 +3 1.16 48% 1.4 .70 16% .33 67% .22
Nov
19		 Louisiana Tech F F F D- F 34% 2% 64% A- D- F C- F B- F C+ F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 46% 30% 24% B- A+ A- C+ B D F+ A+ C-
0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15 0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18
Nov
22		 Ball St. C- B A+ F+ C+ 42% 8% 50% A B- B- F D- D F A+ F+ A A+ F A+ B+ 34% 30% 36% A A- F A C A- A+ F A+
1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17 0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08
Nov
26		 Louisiana Tech B- A+ F F A- 54% 8% 38% A+ A F A F A- F A+ F D C F A+ D- 43% 33% 24% A- D D+ F F C+ A+ F A
1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16 1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11
Nov
28		 Alcorn St. F F+ F F F 51% 4% 45% A- F F A+ C- F+ A- A A D+ D- F C F 46% 20% 33% F+ F F A+ C+ A+ D- A C-
0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32 1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18
Dec
7		 Southern Indiana C+ A- F B B 52% 9% 39% A- B+ F+ F F B- F A+ F B+ A- B- C- C- 33% 25% 41% B- C- A+ A+ A+ D- A F B-
1.18 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 14% .18 90% .16 0.84 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.84 16% 0.3 .05 14% .23 77% .18
Dec
14		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D+ A A+ F A 38% 17% 45% C- A- F A+ C- F F F F B- A+ F A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% C+ A+ D- F F F D- F F
1.07 72% 88% 29% +10 0 1.23 20% 1.6 .32 23% .12 67% .08 1.04 37% 50% 19% -13 -1 0.74 36% 1.3 .47 9% .32 79% .25
Dec
18		 Bradley C- B- F C+ D 36% 11% 53% A C- F F+ F A A+ D+ A+ D+ B- F A C+ 29% 34% 37% A+ B- C- D- D F C+ A+ B+
1.05 61% 0% 35% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.8 .16 15% .53 70% .37 1.14 55% 50% 29% 0 -2 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 8% .31 63% .20
Dec
21		 Illinois St. D+ B- F C+ C+ 41% 7% 52% A+ B F A+ F C+ A+ F A F+ F D- A F+ 42% 32% 26% B D B A+ A F B+ F B-
0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28 1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19
Dec
29		 Belmont C- D+ F A+ B+ 39% 11% 50% B+ B+ C D D+ C- A+ F C A- A+ A+ F A+ 46% 11% 44% C- A C- A+ B B+ C+ F D+
1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21 1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Iowa B- A+ A+ F A+ 49% 6% 45% A+ A+ F F F C+ F F F D+ C F A+ B- 65% 12% 22% F C F D+ F C- D+ B C-
1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04 1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18
Jan
4		 Drake B- B F D D+ 39% 5% 57% A+ C B- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ B F D F 33% 29% 37% B+ F D- B D+ C A+ A+ A+
1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07
Jan
10		 Evansville F D B F F 47% 13% 40% A F C+ C C C+ C D C- C B+ F+ F F 38% 23% 39% D F A+ F A B A+ F A+
0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20 1.00 52% 46% 45% +6 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07
Jan
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ B+ A A+ 46% 14% 40% A+ A+ C F F A+ A+ B A+ F D+ F F F 33% 29% 37% A- F+ B F D- F F D F
1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35 1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30
Jan
17		 Murray St. C+ C D- B- C- 58% 22% 20% B+ C C- A+ A- C- D- F F C B- A+ D+ B- 42% 7% 51% F C D C- D C D B+ C-
1.12 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.4 .45 17% .25 60% .15 1.18 57% 25% 36% 0 +2 1.05 36% 1.2 .42 15% .38 70% .26
Jan
21		 Bradley D A+ B+ C- B+ 40% 18% 42% A- A- F F F F F C- F B+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 22% 40% C- A+ C+ D- C- F F F F
0.95 75% 44% 33% +7 0 1.18 11% 0.7 .07 27% .19 70% .13 1.05 48% 25% 23% -14 0 0.75 26% 1.2 .31 4% .45 84% .38
Jan
24		 Drake F A+ C+ F D+ 33% 17% 50% B C- F F F F B- F D+ C+ F A A- B- 30% 24% 46% B- B- C+ A+ A D F+ B D
0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18 1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25
Jan
27		 Illinois-Chicago B A+ A+ D+ A+ 43% 7% 50% A A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F F C C D+ F F+ 45% 24% 31% C- F+ C A+ A+ D+ D+ D+ D
1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09 1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Valparaiso D A F F C 52% 8% 40% A+ B- F F F C B+ F C- C- A+ F A+ A- 51% 29% 20% F B F A C D F+ B+ D+
1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20 1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
3		 Evansville A+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% B A+ B A- A- B- F F F B- A- F A+ C- 17% 40% 43% A+ C+ D A+ C+ D D- A C-
1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09 1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21
Feb
9		 Southern Illinois F+ C- C+ F F 49% 10% 41% A D D- A+ B F+ C- D+ D+ D D+ D- C- D- 46% 29% 25% C- D- D- A+ B+ C- A C- A-
0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17 1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14
Feb
12		 Murray St. C- F A+ A+ A- 38% 10% 52% A- A C+ F F+ F+ A+ F A+ C- D+ F A+ B- 40% 21% 40% C+ B- F C F A+ F+ B D-
1.11 38% 100% 45% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.6 .21 20% .52 59% .31 1.14 63% 50% 26% 0 0 1.02 45% 1.1 .52 22% .41 71% .29
Feb
15		 Valparaiso A A+ F F B+ 55% 14% 31% A A- B- A+ A A F+ D+ D- F F C- F F 27% 36% 36% B+ F F B- F C D- A+ A-
1.23 78% 14% 27% +4 +2 1.14 35% 1.2 .42 13% .24 69% .17 1.24 83% 38% 44% +12 -3 1.20 44% 1.0 .44 15% .40 48% .19
Feb
18		 Northern Iowa D D+ A+ D+ C 49% 9% 43% A+ B- A F C- F C+ F D- F B- F F F 41% 13% 46% D+ F A+ F B+ F+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 52% 50% 30% -4 +2 0.98 36% 0.6 .22 26% .27 54% .15 1.25 57% 86% 46% +14 +1 1.32 11% 1.7 .18 11% .10 33% .03
Feb
21		 Belmont D- A F F+ C- 43% 9% 48% A C F B+ D- C F A+ F C+ F+ F A+ C 34% 20% 46% A C+ A- A+ A+ F A- F C+
0.96 68% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.1 .23 18% .13 88% .12 1.19 71% 75% 29% +8 0 1.18 21% 0.4 .09 12% .23 87% .20
Feb
25		 Southern Illinois F C F F D- 29% 18% 53% C D- D B+ C- F D- F F A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 25% 30% D A A C+ B+ F B- F D+
0.78 57% 22% 27% -9 0 0.84 23% 1.1 .26 25% .23 50% .11 0.93 69% 21% 12% -9 0 0.84 23% 0.9 .21 11% .26 88% .22
Mar
1		 Illinois-Chicago B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 26% 17% 57% C- A+ F F F F F+ C+ D- A B F A+ A- 64% 13% 22% F B- D- A+ A+ A F C- F
1.17 83% 38% 52% +22 0 1.45 25% 0.7 .17 25% .24 75% .18 0.93 52% 50% 20% -7 +3 0.93 41% 0.3 .11 22% .50 73% .36
Mar
5		 Valparaiso C- A+ F D+ B 41% 17% 41% B- B B+ F C F F B F C+ A A- F+ B- 34% 25% 41% D C+ F A+ B+ D+ F+ A+ C
1.04 79% 13% 32% +3 +1 1.09 39% 0.8 .29 23% .09 75% .07 1.06 47% 27% 39% -4 -1 0.93 39% 0.7 .27 13% .43 59% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16 100.0% 100.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%