Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#191
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#250
Pace78.0#19
Improvement+2.5#36

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#119
First Shot+4.9#55
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#324
Layup/Dunks+3.2#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.8#10
Freethrows-3.0#327
Improvement+3.9#6

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#288
First Shot-4.7#322
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#90
Layups/Dunks-4.6#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#193
Freethrows-0.8#240
Improvement-1.4#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.0% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 27.4% 41.4% 19.4%
.500 or above in Conference 35.4% 51.3% 26.3%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 4.7% 15.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.0% 2.9% 1.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Away) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 14
Quad 48 - 413 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 92   Florida Atlantic L 64-97 25%     0 - 1 -27.2 -18.7 -3.4
  Nov 12, 2024 273   SIU Edwardsville L 72-77 77%     0 - 2 -14.1 -3.7 -10.4
  Nov 16, 2024 270   @ Ball St. W 94-84 56%     1 - 2 +7.0 +9.0 -3.2
  Nov 22, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 97-61 92%     2 - 2 +18.7 +13.8 +3.6
  Nov 25, 2024 293   @ Southern Indiana L 77-87 60%     2 - 3 -13.8 -4.5 -8.4
  Nov 29, 2024 130   Arkansas St. L 81-86 39%     2 - 4 -3.4 +5.9 -9.0
  Nov 30, 2024 274   Iona W 83-80 68%     3 - 4 -3.2 +5.7 -9.0
  Dec 01, 2024 323   Tarleton St. W 87-71 77%     4 - 4 +7.0 +12.4 -5.3
  Dec 07, 2024 165   @ Missouri St. L 74-78 36%    
  Dec 18, 2024 117   Murray St. L 76-77 45%    
  Dec 29, 2024 29   @ Ohio St. L 72-89 6%    
  Jan 01, 2025 71   Bradley L 77-83 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 243   @ Evansville L 79-80 50%    
  Jan 08, 2025 247   @ Valparaiso W 82-81 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 132   Belmont W 86-85 51%    
  Jan 15, 2025 71   @ Bradley L 74-86 13%    
  Jan 18, 2025 73   Drake L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 21, 2025 170   @ Illinois St. L 76-80 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 113   Northern Iowa L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 29, 2025 165   Missouri St. W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 217   @ Illinois-Chicago L 83-84 46%    
  Feb 05, 2025 247   Valparaiso W 84-78 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 73   @ Drake L 66-78 14%    
  Feb 11, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa L 74-82 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 170   Illinois St. W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 19, 2025 243   Evansville W 83-77 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 132   @ Belmont L 83-89 30%    
  Feb 25, 2025 117   @ Murray St. L 73-80 26%    
  Mar 02, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 80-78 59%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.7 7.6 10.4 12.4 12.8 12.6 11.0 9.1 6.5 4.3 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 90.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 82.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 56.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 26.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 22.7% 22.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 23.9% 23.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.5% 16.2% 16.2% 12.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.1% 9.4% 9.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
14-6 2.6% 11.7% 11.7% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.3
13-7 4.3% 6.1% 6.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0
12-8 6.5% 5.7% 5.7% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.2
11-9 9.1% 3.3% 3.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.8
10-10 11.0% 2.2% 2.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
9-11 12.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.4
8-12 12.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.7
7-13 12.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.3
6-14 10.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.4
5-15 7.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.6
4-16 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-17 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%