Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.5 #199
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #243
Pace 72.5 #80
Improvement +2.2 #85

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #223 B- D D+ D- A-
Defense #183 C C D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #25 1.29 #57 +7.1 #10
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #353 0.85 #54 -4.2 #351
Three Pointers 46% #82 0.90 #316 -0.1 #185
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #95 +2.7 #101
Freethrows 0.25 #326 69% #286 0.17 #339
Second Chance 24.7% #330 1.00 #221 0.25 #317
Turnovers 18.3% #283
Total Offense -2.0 #223

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #92 1.09 #85 -0.6 #198
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #91 0.89 #346 -2.7 #347
Three Pointers 35% #336 0.96 #100 +4.1 #31
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #144 +0.8 #150
Freethrows 0.25 #37 73% #212 0.18 #43
Second Chance 32.0% #244 1.01 #149 0.32 #202
Turnovers 14.8% #294
Total Defense -0.5 #183

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.0% #9 -0.1% #155
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #145 -1.8% #148
Possession Length 17.2 #169 16.6 #78
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #205 0.20 #266
Improvement +2.9 #55 -0.7 #227

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.0% 6.2% 43.7%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 52.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 34 - 95 - 16
Quad 45 - 410 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 159 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 30% -9  0 - 1 -13 +3 C+ D+ C -16 C- F F
 Mon, Nov 10 252 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 49% +6  1 - 1 +7 -7 D C- F +14 A A+ B
 Fri, Nov 14 3 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  1 - 2 -11 -3 C+ D+ D- -5 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 217 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 64% +5  2 - 2 +3 -15 D- F C +17 A+ B C-
 Sat, Nov 22 298 Ball St. W 70 - 52 79% +2  3 - 2 +7 -2 C D- D+ +10 A- C- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 217 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 41% -1  3 - 3 -2 +5 A F B- -8 F+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 28 349 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 81% -11  3 - 4 -19 -13 F C F+ -5 F C+ A-
 Sun, Dec 7 332 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 85% +11  4 - 4 +8 +7 B+ F B- +3 C- A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 247 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 48% +1  5 - 4 +0 +1 A C- F -0 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 121 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 42% -1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -9 -1 C- F A+ -7 C+ D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 87 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 13% -15  5 - 6 0 - 2 -11 -0 B F C -11 D A F
 Mon, Dec 29 74 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 24% -2  6 - 6 1 - 2 +6 +2 A- D+ C +3 A B B
 Thu, Jan 1 110 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 19% -1  6 - 7 1 - 3 -2 +7 A+ F C -10 D+ F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 162 @Drake L 72 - 74 31% +0  6 - 8 1 - 4 +1 +8 C A+ F -8 F D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 271 Evansville L 69 - 72 74% -0  6 - 9 1 - 5 -12 -8 F C B- -4 F A C+
 Wed, Jan 14 87 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 28% +6  7 - 9 2 - 5 +8 +26 A+ F+ A+ -17 F+ D F+
 Sat, Jan 17 107 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 18% -5  7 - 10 2 - 6 +3 +6 C+ B+ C- -3 C+ D+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 121 @Bradley L 68 - 75 22% +3  7 - 11 2 - 7 -1 -4 A- F F +3 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 162 Drake L 62 - 76 53% -5  7 - 12 2 - 8 -17 -15 C- F F -1 B- A- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 133 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 25% -9  7 - 13 2 - 9 +3 +7 A+ A+ F -5 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 161 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 53% +3  7 - 14 2 - 10 -7 -2 B- D- C -5 B D+ D
 Tue, Feb 3 271 @Evansville W 73 - 72 52%
 Mon, Feb 9 135 Southern Illinois L 73 - 74 47%
 Thu, Feb 12 107 Murray St. L 82 - 86 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 161 @Valparaiso L 69 - 74 31%
 Wed, Feb 18 110 Northern Iowa L 63 - 66 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 74 @Belmont L 73 - 86 11%
 Wed, Feb 25 135 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 77 25%
 Sun, Mar 1 133 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 74 46%
Totals 10 - 19 5 - 15 -2 -2 B- D D+ -1 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.7 0.2 4.1 8th
9th 0.2 3.0 7.8 6.1 1.0 0.0 18.2 9th
10th 0.8 8.2 21.9 22.5 10.5 1.5 0.0 65.4 10th
11th 2.9 5.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.3 11th
Total 3.7 13.6 24.7 26.0 18.7 9.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 3.1
7-13 9.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.5
6-14 18.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 18.5
5-15 26.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.8
4-16 24.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 24.5
3-17 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.6
2-18 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.7
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.9 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%