Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #186
Expected Predictive Rating -4.2 #231
Pace 71.8 #97
Improvement +3.4 #46

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #203 B- D+ D+ D- A-
Defense #182 C C D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #30 1.29 #57 +6.9 #11
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #353 0.79 #123 -4.3 #350
Three Pointers 46% #80 0.92 #299 +0.3 #166
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #93 +3.0 #92
Freethrows 0.25 #328 69% #285 0.17 #340
Second Chance 24.8% #329 1.03 #165 0.26 #295
Turnovers 18.4% #276
Total Offense -1.3 #203

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #108 1.08 #85 -0.1 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #83 0.93 #358 -3.1 #352
Three Pointers 35% #333 0.96 #92 +4.1 #35
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #151 +0.8 #150
Freethrows 0.25 #38 72% #201 0.18 #43
Second Chance 32.6% #271 0.98 #107 0.32 #194
Turnovers 15.0% #297
Total Defense -0.6 #182

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.9% #11 -0.3% #136
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.8% #141 -1.2% #161
Possession Length 17.3 #177 16.7 #99
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #212 0.19 #251
Improvement +4.3 #18 -0.8 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 2.0% 8.6%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 47.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 34 - 86 - 16
Quad 45 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 154 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 32% -9  0 - 1 -13 +3 C+ D+ C+ -16 C- F F
 Mon, Nov 10 247 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 50% +6  1 - 1 +7 -7 D C- F +14 A A+ B
 Fri, Nov 14 3 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  1 - 2 -11 -3 C+ D+ D- -5 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 217 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 67% +5  2 - 2 +3 -14 D- F C +17 A+ B D+
 Sat, Nov 22 305 Ball St. W 70 - 52 82% +2  3 - 2 +7 -2 C D- C- +10 B+ C- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 217 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 44% -1  3 - 3 -2 +6 A F B -8 F+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 28 352 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 85% -11  3 - 4 -20 -14 F C- D- -5 F C+ A-
 Sun, Dec 7 333 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 86% +11  4 - 4 +8 +7 B+ F B- +3 C- A+ F+
 Sun, Dec 14 254 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 52% +1  5 - 4 -0 +0 A- C- F -0 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 120 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 44% -1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -9 -0 C- F A+ -7 C+ D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 90 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 16% -15  5 - 6 0 - 2 -11 +1 B F C+ -12 D A F
 Mon, Dec 29 73 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 26% -2  6 - 6 1 - 2 +6 +2 A- D+ C +4 A+ B+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 111 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 21% -1  6 - 7 1 - 3 -2 +7 A+ F C -10 D+ F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 164 @Drake L 72 - 74 33% +0  6 - 8 1 - 4 +1 +7 C A+ F -7 F+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 285 Evansville L 69 - 72 78% -0  6 - 9 1 - 5 -13 -9 F C B- -4 F A C+
 Wed, Jan 14 90 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 32% +6  7 - 9 2 - 5 +8 +26 A+ D- A+ -18 F+ D F+
 Sat, Jan 17 106 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 19% -5  7 - 10 2 - 6 +3 +6 C+ B+ C -3 C C- C
 Wed, Jan 21 120 @Bradley L 68 - 75 24% +3  7 - 11 2 - 7 -1 -4 A- F F +3 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 164 Drake L 62 - 76 56% -5  7 - 12 2 - 8 -17 -16 C- F F -1 B- A- D
 Tue, Jan 27 138 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 27% -9  7 - 13 2 - 9 +2 +7 A+ A+ F -5 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 159 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 55% +3  7 - 14 2 - 10 -7 -2 B- D- C+ -5 B D+ D-
 Tue, Feb 3 285 @Evansville W 84 - 63 58% +15  8 - 14 3 - 10 +17 +21 A+ A- B+ -2 C C+ F+
 Mon, Feb 9 129 Southern Illinois L 72 - 73 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 106 Murray St. L 82 - 85 40%
 Sun, Feb 15 159 @Valparaiso L 69 - 74 32%
 Wed, Feb 18 111 Northern Iowa L 64 - 66 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 73 @Belmont L 74 - 87 12%
 Wed, Feb 25 129 @Southern Illinois L 69 - 76 26%
 Sun, Mar 1 138 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 74 49%
Totals 10 - 19 5 - 15 -2 -1 B- D+ D+ -1 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 2.7 0.3 5.2 8th
9th 0.6 5.1 7.5 1.4 0.0 14.6 9th
10th 5.2 17.0 28.5 21.2 5.0 0.1 77.0 10th
11th 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.3 11th
Total 5.9 17.5 29.2 26.4 14.6 5.0 1.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0
9-11 1.4% 2.9% 2.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 1.3
8-12 5.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.1 4.9
7-13 14.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.4
6-14 26.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 26.2
5-15 29.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 29.0
4-16 17.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.4
3-17 5.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.9
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%