Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #186
Expected Predictive Rating -2.2 #203
Pace 72.6 #83
Improvement +2.9 #41

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #207 C+ D F C- A+
Defense #175 C+ A- D+ D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #56 1.25 #83 +5.2 #36
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #355 0.75 #172 -4.4 #349
Three Pointers 47% #66 0.91 #291 +0.7 #149
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #141 +1.5 #142
Freethrows 14.3 #314 73% #182 10.4 #302
Second Chance 22.8% #350 1.03 #204 0.23 #332
Turnovers 17.6% #238
Total Offense -1.6 #207

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #88 1.09 #107 -0.6 #199
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #66 0.93 #351 -3.9 #357
Three Pointers 33% #352 0.89 #42 +6.1 #13
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #123 +1.5 #126
Freethrows 12.7 #17 75% #267 9.5 #336
Second Chance 33.9% #292 1.06 #203 0.36 #264
Turnovers 15.2% #273
Total Defense -0.3 #175

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.8% #13 -0.5% #120
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.6% #181 -2.8% #127
Possession Length 17.0 #153 16.8 #106
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #200 0.19 #225
Improvement +4.2 #7 -1.3 #266

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.1% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 15.5% 18.7% 6.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.5% 16.5% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.5% 6.2% 26.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 74.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 34 - 75 - 15
Quad 47 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 178 @Charlotte L 76-92 36%     -9.4   0 - 1 -14.2 +2.7 -17.1
  Mon, Nov 10 262 @SIU Edwardsville W 64-55 54%     6.5   1 - 1 +6.2 -7.8 +13.8
  Fri, Nov 14 6 @Duke L 62-100 2%     -18.9   1 - 2 -14.0 -5.1 -5.6
  Wed, Nov 19 214 Louisiana Tech W 60-51 66%     4.9   2 - 2 +3.0 -13.8 +16.6
  Sat, Nov 22 318 Ball St. W 70-52 84%     1.8   3 - 2 +5.7 -2.6 +9.8
  Wed, Nov 26 214 @Louisiana Tech L 73-75 43%     -1.2   3 - 3 -2.0 +6.2 -8.3
  Fri, Nov 28 345 Alcorn St. L 74-81 83%     -11.5   3 - 4 -19.0 -13.8 -4.3
  Sun, Dec 7 330 Southern Indiana W 77-55 86%     11.0   4 - 4 +8.6 +5.4 +4.8
  Sun, Dec 14 200 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70-68 41%     0.6   5 - 4 +2.5 +0.9 +1.8
  Thu, Dec 18 121 Bradley L 99-108 3OT 44%     -0.8   5 - 5 0 - 1 -9.3 +0.9 -7.8
  Sun, Dec 21 74 @Illinois St. L 65-85 12%     -14.6   5 - 6 0 - 2 -9.1 -0.1 -9.6
  Mon, Dec 29 83 Belmont W 81-80 OT 28%     -2.3   6 - 6 1 - 2 +5.1 +3.2 +1.8
  Thu, Jan 1 90 @Northern Iowa L 66-75 15%     -1.0   6 - 7 1 - 3 +0.2 +8.6 -9.2
  Sun, Jan 4 151 @Drake L 72-74 31%     0.2   6 - 8 1 - 4 +1.2 +7.8 -6.8
  Sat, Jan 10 260 Evansville W 76-69 74%    
  Wed, Jan 14 74 Illinois St. L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 92 @Murray St. L 77-88 15%    
  Wed, Jan 21 121 @Bradley L 70-78 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 151 Drake W 73-72 53%    
  Tue, Jan 27 207 @Illinois-Chicago L 74-76 42%    
  Sat, Jan 31 205 Valparaiso W 74-70 64%    
  Tue, Feb 3 260 @Evansville W 73-72 54%    
  Mon, Feb 9 124 Southern Illinois L 75-76 45%    
  Thu, Feb 12 92 Murray St. L 80-85 32%    
  Sun, Feb 15 205 @Valparaiso L 71-73 42%    
  Wed, Feb 18 90 Northern Iowa L 62-67 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 83 @Belmont L 73-85 14%    
  Wed, Feb 25 124 @Southern Illinois L 72-79 25%    
  Sun, Mar 1 207 Illinois-Chicago W 77-73 64%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.6 3.5 1.0 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.2 5.6 1.8 0.1 0.0 18.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.8 9.5 6.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 24.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.3 8.1 4.6 1.0 0.0 20.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 4.5 6.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 14.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 5.8 11th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.3 7.6 12.9 16.0 17.6 16.3 11.6 7.4 3.9 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 19.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.2% 19.4% 19.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.5% 8.2% 8.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 1.6% 6.0% 6.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
11-9 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8
10-10 7.4% 2.2% 2.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.2
9-11 11.6% 1.2% 1.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.5
8-12 16.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.1 0.0 16.1
7-13 17.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 17.5
6-14 16.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.0
5-15 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.9
4-16 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-17 3.3% 3.3
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%