Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#201
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#213
Pace75.0#50
Improvement+0.5#149

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#242
First Shot-0.5#185
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#317
Layup/Dunks+4.8#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
Freethrows-1.9#295
Improvement+1.1#97

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#151
First Shot+0.5#153
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#212
Layups/Dunks-2.9#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#35
Freethrows+2.1#58
Improvement-0.7#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.6 14.5
.500 or above 13.3% 25.7% 9.4%
.500 or above in Conference 11.9% 23.7% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.2% 10.0% 23.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 85 - 15
Quad 47 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 183 @Charlotte L 76-92 35%     0 - 1 -14.7 +3.2 -18.1
  Mon, Nov 10 249 @SIU Edwardsville W 64-55 48%     1 - 1 +7.0 -7.9 +14.7
  Fri, Nov 14 4 @Duke L 62-100 1%     1 - 2 -13.1 -3.5 -6.3
  Wed, Nov 19 187 Louisiana Tech W 60-51 59%     2 - 2 +4.2 -12.7 +16.7
  Sat, Nov 22 306 Ball St. W 70-52 80%     3 - 2 +6.8 -1.4 +9.6
  Wed, Nov 26 187 @Louisiana Tech L 73-75 36%     3 - 3 -0.8 +7.3 -8.2
  Fri, Nov 28 337 Alcorn St. L 74-81 79%     3 - 4 -18.0 -12.5 -4.6
  Sun, Dec 7 339 Southern Indiana W 77-55 86%     4 - 4 +7.6 +4.8 +4.3
  Sun, Dec 14 210 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70-68 41%     5 - 4 +1.8 +0.0 +1.9
  Thu, Dec 18 108 Bradley L 99-108 3OT 37%     5 - 5 0 - 1 -8.1 +2.1 -7.9
  Sun, Dec 21 82 @Illinois St. L 65-85 13%     5 - 6 0 - 2 -10.1 -1.9 -8.8
  Mon, Dec 29 69 Belmont L 76-84 24%    
  Thu, Jan 1 93 @Northern Iowa L 60-71 14%    
  Sun, Jan 4 143 @Drake L 69-76 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 252 Evansville W 76-70 70%    
  Wed, Jan 14 82 Illinois St. L 71-77 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 100 @Murray St. L 77-88 15%    
  Wed, Jan 21 108 @Bradley L 69-78 19%    
  Sat, Jan 24 143 Drake L 72-73 47%    
  Tue, Jan 27 200 @Illinois-Chicago L 74-77 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 219 Valparaiso W 75-71 65%    
  Tue, Feb 3 252 @Evansville L 72-73 49%    
  Mon, Feb 9 130 Southern Illinois L 76-77 45%    
  Thu, Feb 12 100 Murray St. L 80-85 33%    
  Sun, Feb 15 219 @Valparaiso L 72-74 44%    
  Wed, Feb 18 93 Northern Iowa L 63-68 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 69 @Belmont L 73-87 11%    
  Wed, Feb 25 130 @Southern Illinois L 73-80 25%    
  Sun, Mar 1 200 Illinois-Chicago W 77-74 60%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 2.7 0.9 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.3 4.0 1.1 0.1 13.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.8 7.7 4.7 1.1 0.1 19.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 6.1 8.0 4.1 0.8 0.1 20.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.0 6.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 18.1 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 2.9 3.8 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.2 11th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.3 6.5 10.7 14.4 15.9 15.0 12.1 8.8 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 35.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 6.5% 6.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.2% 16.4% 16.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.7% 7.1% 7.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-8 1.7% 6.8% 6.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6
11-9 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.3
10-10 5.8% 2.7% 2.7% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
9-11 8.8% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.7
8-12 12.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.1 0.1 0.0 12.1
7-13 15.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.9
6-14 15.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 15.9
5-15 14.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.4
4-16 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
3-17 6.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.5
2-18 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%