Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.9 213
Results Rating -5.9 256
Pace 70.7 120
Improvement +1.0 157

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 216 B- D+ D+ D- A
Defense C- 213 C C D+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 23 B 64% 62 +6.9 13
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 343 B- 41% 83 -4.2 350
Three Pointers 45% 94 D 31% 304 +0.0 178
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.0 8 C +0.6 146
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 93
Second Chance D 25.4% 316 C 1.03 180 D+ 0.26 294
Turnovers D+ 18.4% 288
Freethrows D- 0.26 325 D 68% 317 D- 0.17 343
Total Offense C- -1.6 216

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A- 62% 17 D+ 12.7% 279
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 56 C 4.8% 176
Three Pointers B- 88% 114 D+ 1.3% 297
Total A- 68% 13 D 6.8% 310

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 134 C+ 56% 111 +0.0 183
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 86 F 48% 363 +3.3 358
Three Pointers 36% 309 B- 32% 103 -3.3 51
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 123 C +0.3 192
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 181
Second Chance D+ 32.7% 282 B- 0.96 72 C 0.31 193
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 290
Freethrows B 0.25 37 C+ 72% 130 B 0.18 45
Total Defense C- -1.4 213

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 39 C- 9.2% 242
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 49 D 2.3% 320
Three Pointers B- 80% 78 C- 0.7% 208
Total A- 45% 17 D+ 4.5% 270

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 173 16.9 118
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 213 0.20 284
Improvement +3.2 #48 -2.2 #295

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 238 215 191
Results Rating Rank 284 254 233
Conference Record 3 - 17 3 - 17 5 - 15
Conference Finish 10 10 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 29% 7% 35%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 20.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 32 - 93 - 18
Quad 46 - 49 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 175 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 32% -9  9% 0 - 1 D- -14 C +0 C+ D+ C+ F -14 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 262 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 49% +6  88% 1 - 1 B- +6 F+ -9 D- C- F A+ +16 A A+ B
 Fri, Nov 14 2 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  13% 1 - 2 D -10 D -4 B- D+ F+ C- -3 B- F C
 Wed, Nov 19 215 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 62% +5  95% 2 - 2 C+ +3 F -16 D- F C+ A+ +18 A+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 22 313 Ball St. W 70 - 52 81% +2  39% 3 - 2 B- +6 D+ -3 C+ D- D+ A +10 B+ C- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 215 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 39% -1  34% 3 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 A F B+ D- -7 D- F C
 Fri, Nov 28 344 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 82% -11  1% 3 - 4 F -20 F -17 F C- D- C- -2 F C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 338 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 87% +11  89% 4 - 4 B- +7 C+ +2 B+ F B B+ +6 C- A+ F+
 Sun, Dec 14 273 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 52% +1  45% 5 - 4 C -1 D+ -4 A- C- F B- +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 113 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 38% -1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -9 C- -2 C F A D+ -4 B- D F
 Sun, Dec 21 102 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 16% -15  10% 5 - 6 0 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 B F C F -10 D A- F
 Mon, Dec 29 67 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 21% -2  24% 6 - 6 1 - 2 B- +6 C- -1 A- D+ C- A- +7 A B B+
 Thu, Jan 1 94 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 14% -1  32% 6 - 7 1 - 3 C -0 B- +5 A+ F C+ D -6 C- F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 193 @Drake L 72 - 74 35% +0  48% 6 - 8 1 - 4 C -1 B- +4 C A+ F D -5 F C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 295 Evansville L 69 - 72 77% -0  37% 6 - 9 1 - 5 D- -14 F -12 F C B- C- -2 F A B-
 Wed, Jan 14 102 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 33% +6  87% 7 - 9 2 - 5 B- +7 A+ +23 A+ F A+ F -16 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 123 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 21% -5  1% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +2 C+ +3 C A- C C -1 C+ D C-
 Wed, Jan 21 113 @Bradley L 68 - 75 19% +3  82% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -1 D -5 A F F B +5 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 193 Drake L 62 - 76 58% -5  4% 7 - 12 2 - 8 F -19 F -20 D+ F F C+ +2 B- A D
 Tue, Jan 27 108 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 18% -9  1% 7 - 13 2 - 9 C+ +5 B +6 A+ A+ F C- -2 F+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 150 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 49% +3  72% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D+ -7 D -5 B- F+ C+ C- -2 B C D
 Tue, Feb 3 295 @Evansville W 84 - 63 57% +15  98% 8 - 14 3 - 10 A- +16 A+ +17 A+ A- B C+ +1 C+ C+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 126 Southern Illinois L 65 - 80 40% -7  10% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -15 F+ -10 D B F+ D -5 D B+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 123 Murray St. L 72 - 74 40% -9  0% 8 - 16 3 - 12 C- -2 C- -1 A F F+ C- -2 B- F A+
 Sun, Feb 15 150 @Valparaiso L 75 - 76 27% -3  13% 8 - 17 3 - 13 C+ +2 A +13 A- A A F -11 F F C
 Wed, Feb 18 94 Northern Iowa L 60 - 81 29% -3  35% 8 - 18 3 - 14 F -18 D -5 B- C F F -14 F B F+
 Sat, Feb 21 67 @Belmont L 70 - 87 10% -10  6% 8 - 19 3 - 15 D+ -6 D -5 C+ D- C C+ +0 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 126 @Southern Illinois L 68 - 77 21%
 Sun, Mar 1 108 Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 74 37%
Totals 9 - 20 4 - 16 -3 C- -2 C- C A C- -1 D D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B B- D C 46% 20% 45% A B- D C D+ D+ D- D D- C- C+ F B- C 40% 24% 36% C+ C D+ B- C D+ B C+ B
1.06 64% 41% 31% +1 +2 1.07 25% 1.0 .26 18% .26 68% .17 1.11 56% 48% 32% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.0 .31 15% .25 72% .18
Nov
3		 Charlotte C B B- D- C 44% 10% 46% A C+ D- B+ D+ C+ B- C+ B- F C- A+ F D+ 51% 12% 37% D- D+ F D F F F B+ F
1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25 1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33
Nov
10		 SIU Edwardsville F+ F A+ F F 37% 8% 55% A D- C+ D C- F C B- C A+ C A- A+ A- 29% 45% 25% A+ A D- A+ A+ B B- A- B
0.90 44% 50% 26% -11 +2 0.84 35% 0.9 .30 24% .31 76% .24 0.77 56% 28% 21% -10 -4 0.75 33% 0.4 .14 21% .23 62% .14
Nov
14		 Duke D C F D C- 43% 6% 51% A+ B- C+ F D+ F+ B+ F C+ C- C- D- C+ B 53% 4% 44% D- B- F F F C B- B+ B
0.81 52% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 24% .26 60% .15 1.31 66% 50% 33% +4 +3 1.16 48% 1.4 .70 16% .33 67% .22
Nov
19		 Louisiana Tech F F F D- F 34% 2% 64% A- D- F D+ F C+ F B F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 46% 30% 24% B- A+ A- C- B- D D- A C-
0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15 0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18
Nov
22		 Ball St. D+ B- A+ F+ C 42% 8% 50% A C+ C+ F D- D+ F A+ D- A A+ F A+ B+ 34% 30% 36% A B+ F A C- B+ A+ F A+
1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17 0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08
Nov
26		 Louisiana Tech B- A+ F F A- 54% 8% 38% A A F A- F B+ F A+ F D- C- F A+ F+ 43% 33% 24% A- D- D+ F F C A+ F A
1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16 1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11
Nov
28		 Alcorn St. F F+ F F F 51% 4% 45% A- F F A+ C- D- B+ A- A C- D- F C+ F 46% 20% 33% F+ F F A+ C+ A+ D- A C-
0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32 1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18
Dec
7		 Southern Indiana C+ A- F B B+ 52% 9% 39% A- B+ F F F B F A+ F B+ A B- C- C- 33% 25% 41% C+ C- A+ A+ A+ F+ A F B-
1.18 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 14% .18 90% .16 0.84 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.84 16% 0.3 .05 14% .23 77% .18
Dec
14		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D+ A A+ F A 38% 17% 45% C- A- F A+ C- F F F+ F B- A+ F A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% C+ A+ D F F F D- F F
1.07 72% 88% 29% +10 0 1.23 20% 1.6 .32 23% .12 67% .08 1.04 37% 50% 19% -13 -1 0.74 36% 1.3 .47 9% .32 79% .25
Dec
18		 Bradley C- C+ F C+ D+ 36% 11% 53% A+ C F F+ F A A+ D+ A+ D+ B- F A C 29% 34% 37% A B- C- F+ D F C+ A+ B+
1.05 61% 0% 35% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.8 .16 15% .53 70% .37 1.14 55% 50% 29% 0 -2 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 8% .31 63% .20
Dec
21		 Illinois St. D+ B- F B- C+ 41% 7% 52% A+ B F A+ F C A+ F A F F D- A D- 42% 32% 26% B D B A A- F B F C+
0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28 1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19
Dec
29		 Belmont C- D+ F A+ B+ 39% 11% 50% A- A- C- D D+ C- A+ F C A- A+ A+ F A+ 46% 11% 44% C- A C- A+ B B+ B- F D+
1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21 1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Iowa B- A+ A+ F A+ 49% 6% 45% A+ A+ F F F C+ F F F D C F A+ C+ 65% 12% 22% F C- F D F C- D+ B- C-
1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04 1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18
Jan
4		 Drake B- B F D D+ 39% 5% 57% A+ C B A+ A+ F A A+ A+ D B F D F 33% 29% 37% B+ F D- B C- C A+ A+ A+
1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07
Jan
10		 Evansville F D B- F F 47% 13% 40% A F C C- C B- C D+ C- C- B+ F+ F F 38% 23% 39% D- F A+ F A B- A+ F A+
0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20 1.00 52% 46% 45% +7 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07
Jan
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ B+ A A+ 46% 14% 40% A+ A+ C+ F F A+ A+ B A+ F D+ F F F 33% 29% 37% A- F+ B F D- F F D- F
1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35 1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30
Jan
17		 Murray St. C+ C D B- C 58% 22% 20% B+ C C- A+ A- C D F F+ C B- A+ D+ B- 42% 7% 51% F C+ D C- D C- D A- C-
1.12 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.4 .45 17% .25 60% .15 1.18 57% 25% 36% 0 +2 1.05 36% 1.2 .42 15% .38 70% .26
Jan
21		 Bradley D A+ B+ C- A- 40% 18% 42% A- A F F F F F D+ F B A A A+ A+ 38% 22% 40% C- A+ C+ D- C- F F F F
0.95 75% 44% 33% +8 0 1.18 11% 0.7 .07 27% .19 70% .13 1.05 48% 25% 23% -14 0 0.75 26% 1.2 .31 4% .45 84% .38
Jan
24		 Drake F A+ C+ F D 33% 17% 50% B- D+ F+ F F F C+ F D+ C+ F A A- B- 30% 24% 46% B- B- C+ A+ A D F+ B D
0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18 1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25
Jan
27		 Illinois-Chicago B A+ A+ C- A+ 43% 7% 50% A A+ A+ A A+ F F F F C- C D+ F F 45% 24% 31% C- F+ C A+ A+ D+ D D+ D
1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09 1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Valparaiso D A F F C 52% 8% 40% A+ B- F F+ F+ C+ B F C- C- A+ F A+ B+ 51% 29% 20% F B F A C D F+ B D+
1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20 1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
3		 Evansville A+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% B A+ B B+ A- B F F F C+ A- F A+ C- 17% 40% 43% A+ C+ D A C+ D- D- A C-
1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09 1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21
Feb
9		 Southern Illinois F+ C- C+ F F 49% 10% 41% A D D- A+ B F+ D+ D+ D+ D D+ D- C- D- 46% 29% 25% C- D D- A+ B+ C- A C- A-
0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17 1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14
Feb
12		 Murray St. C- F A+ A+ A 38% 10% 52% A- A C+ F F F+ A+ F A+ C- D+ F A+ B- 40% 21% 40% C+ B- F C F A+ F B D-
1.11 38% 100% 45% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.6 .21 20% .52 59% .31 1.14 63% 50% 26% 0 0 1.02 45% 1.1 .52 22% .41 71% .29
Feb
15		 Valparaiso A A+ F F B+ 55% 14% 31% A A- B- A+ A A F+ C- D- F F C- F F 27% 36% 36% B+ F F B- F C D- A+ A-
1.23 78% 14% 27% +4 +2 1.14 35% 1.2 .42 13% .24 69% .17 1.24 83% 38% 44% +12 -3 1.20 44% 1.0 .44 15% .40 48% .19
Feb
18		 Northern Iowa D D+ A+ D+ C 49% 9% 43% A B- A F C F C+ F D- F B- F F F 41% 13% 46% D+ F A+ F B F+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 52% 50% 30% -4 +2 0.98 36% 0.6 .22 26% .27 54% .15 1.25 57% 86% 46% +14 +1 1.32 11% 1.7 .18 11% .10 33% .03
Feb
21		 Belmont D A F F+ C 43% 9% 48% A C+ F B+ D- C F A+ F C+ F+ F A+ C 34% 20% 46% A C+ A- A+ A+ F A- F C+
0.96 68% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.1 .23 18% .13 88% .12 1.19 71% 75% 29% +8 0 1.18 21% 0.4 .09 12% .23 87% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 45.6 41.4 8.1 95.1 10th
11th 4.8 0.1 4.9 11th
Total 50.4 41.6 8.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 8.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 8.0
4-16 41.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 41.4
3-17 50.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.2 50.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 37.7%