Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.2 #196
Expected Predictive Rating -4.1 #227
Pace 73.0 #73
Improvement +2.2 #86

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #213 B- D D+ D- A-
Defense #183 C C D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #33 1.29 #58 +6.8 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #351 0.83 #72 -4.1 #349
Three Pointers 46% #87 0.92 #304 +0.1 #167
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #94 +2.8 #99
Freethrows 0.25 #327 70% #254 0.17 #330
Second Chance 24.6% #328 1.04 #186 0.26 #307
Turnovers 18.4% #296
Total Offense -1.6 #213

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 1.10 #105 -0.4 #194
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #90 0.88 #335 -2.6 #345
Three Pointers 36% #320 0.97 #113 +3.7 #45
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #155 +0.6 #160
Freethrows 0.24 #33 74% #259 0.18 #43
Second Chance 31.7% #235 1.03 #142 0.33 #197
Turnovers 14.9% #276
Total Defense -0.5 #183

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.8% #13 -0.3% #136
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.9% #145 -1.4% #162
Possession Length 17.3 #161 16.6 #67
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #201 0.20 #272
Improvement +3.2 #37 -1.0 #252

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 0.9% 1.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 0.8% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.0% 12.2% 27.4%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 95 - 16
Quad 45 - 311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 165 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 32% -9  0 - 1 -13 +3 C D+ C -16 D F F
 Mon, Nov 10 261 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 51% +6  1 - 1 +6 -8 D D+ F +14 A A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 3 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  1 - 2 -11 -3 C+ D+ D- -5 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 209 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 64% +5  2 - 2 +3 -14 D F C +17 A+ B C
 Sat, Nov 22 295 Ball St. W 70 - 52 79% +2  3 - 2 +7 -2 C F+ D +11 A- C A
 Wed, Nov 26 209 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 41% -1  3 - 3 -2 +6 A F B- -8 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 350 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 83% -11  3 - 4 -19 -13 F C F+ -5 F C+ A
 Sun, Dec 7 322 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 84% +11  4 - 4 +9 +7 B+ F C+ +4 C A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 247 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 48% +1  5 - 4 +0 +0 A C- F +0 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 127 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 45% -1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -0 C- F A+ -7 C+ D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 88 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 14% -15  5 - 6 0 - 2 -11 -0 B F C -11 D A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 78 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 26% -2  6 - 6 1 - 2 +5 +3 A- D+ C- +3 A B- B
 Thu, Jan 1 114 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 21% -1  6 - 7 1 - 3 -3 +7 A+ F C -10 D+ F C
 Sun, Jan 4 152 @Drake L 72 - 74 29% +0  6 - 8 1 - 4 +1 +9 C A+ F -8 F+ D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 267 Evansville L 69 - 72 74% -0  6 - 9 1 - 5 -12 -7 F C B- -4 F A C+
 Wed, Jan 14 88 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 29% +6  7 - 9 2 - 5 +8 +25 A+ D+ A+ -17 D- D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 103 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 17% -5  7 - 10 2 - 6 +4 +7 C+ B+ C- -3 C+ D+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 127 @Bradley L 68 - 75 24% +3  7 - 11 2 - 7 -2 -4 B+ F F +2 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 152 Drake L 62 - 76 51% -5  7 - 12 2 - 8 -17 -15 C- F F -1 B- A- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 138 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 26% -10  7 - 13 2 - 9 +2 +7 A+ A+ F -5 F+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 167 Valparaiso W 73 - 72 55%
 Tue, Feb 3 267 @Evansville W 74 - 73 53%
 Mon, Feb 9 134 Southern Illinois L 74 - 75 47%
 Thu, Feb 12 103 Murray St. L 82 - 86 35%
 Sun, Feb 15 167 @Valparaiso L 70 - 75 33%
 Wed, Feb 18 114 Northern Iowa L 64 - 67 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 78 @Belmont L 73 - 86 12%
 Wed, Feb 25 134 @Southern Illinois L 71 - 78 26%
 Sun, Mar 1 138 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 74 48%
Totals 10 - 19 5 - 15 -2 -2 B- D D+ -1 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.5 3.1 3.9 0.5 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 6.8 8.2 1.9 0.0 18.4 9th
10th 0.3 4.6 14.6 21.8 15.6 3.9 0.1 60.9 10th
11th 1.5 3.7 2.7 1.0 0.1 8.9 11th
Total 1.8 8.2 17.3 24.3 23.0 15.5 7.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
9-11 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
8-12 7.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.2
7-13 15.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 15.3
6-14 23.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 22.8
5-15 24.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 24.2
4-16 17.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.3
3-17 8.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.2
2-18 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%