Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 197
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 241
Pace 72.1 87
Improvement +2.3 90

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #219 B- D+ D+ D- A
Defense C #190 C C D+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 23 64% 62 +6.8 13
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% 355 40% 121 -4.3 354
Three Pointers 46% 86 30% 311 -0.1 178
1st FG Attempt 1.07 104 +2.4 104
Second Chance 24.6% 333 1.05 139 0.26 296
Turnovers 18.6% 288
Freethrows 0.25 333 69% 292 0.17 342
Total Offense -1.9 219

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 110 55% 92 -0.3 191
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 90 46% 357 -2.9 349
Three Pointers 35% 329 32% 96 +3.9 39
1st FG Attempt 1.01 160 +0.6 159
Second Chance 32.8% 280 0.96 87 0.31 193
Turnovers 15.0% 296
Freethrows 0.25 33 73% 212 0.18 43
Total Defense -0.6 190

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +2.0 8 -0.1 142
Shot Type Accuracy +0.4 158 -0.4 161
Possession Length 17.3 170 16.8 91
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 204 0.20 260
Improvement +3.4 #37 -1.1 #258

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.8
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 25% 12% 34%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Home) - 39.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 33 - 85 - 16
Quad 46 - 410 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 168 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 32% -9  9% 0 - 1 D- -14 C +0 C+ D+ C+ F -14 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 245 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 47% +6  88% 1 - 1 B- +7 F+ -9 D- C- F A+ +16 A A B
 Fri, Nov 14 3 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  13% 1 - 2 D- -11 D -5 C+ D+ D- C- -3 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 223 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 64% +5  95% 2 - 2 C+ +3 F -17 D- F C+ A+ +20 A+ B C-
 Sat, Nov 22 310 Ball St. W 70 - 52 82% +2  39% 3 - 2 B- +6 D+ -4 C+ F+ D+ A +11 B+ C B+
 Wed, Nov 26 223 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 41% -1  34% 3 - 3 C- -2 C+ +3 A F B D+ -5 F+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 28 351 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 84% -11  1% 3 - 4 F -20 F -18 F C- F+ C- -2 F C A
 Sun, Dec 7 340 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 87% +11  89% 4 - 4 B- +7 B- +4 A- F B- B +5 C- A+ F+
 Sun, Dec 14 268 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 52% +1  45% 5 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 A- C- F C+ +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 120 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 41% -1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -3 C- F A D+ -4 B- D F
 Sun, Dec 21 94 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 16% -15  10% 5 - 6 0 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 B F C+ D- -9 D A F
 Mon, Dec 29 78 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 25% -2  24% 6 - 6 1 - 2 B- +5 C- -1 A- D+ C- B+ +6 A B+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 100 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 16% -1  32% 6 - 7 1 - 3 C -1 B- +5 A+ F C+ D -7 D+ F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 177 @Drake L 72 - 74 33% +0  48% 6 - 8 1 - 4 C -0 B- +4 C A+ F D+ -4 F C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 273 Evansville L 69 - 72 74% -0  37% 6 - 9 1 - 5 D- -12 F -11 F C B- C -1 F+ A B-
 Wed, Jan 14 94 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 32% +6  87% 7 - 9 2 - 5 B- +7 A+ +22 A+ F+ A+ F -15 F+ D- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 112 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 20% -5  1% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +2 C+ +3 C+ A- C- C -0 C+ D+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 120 @Bradley L 68 - 75 22% +3  82% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -1 D- -6 A- F F B +5 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 177 Drake L 62 - 76 56% -5  4% 7 - 12 2 - 8 F -18 F -20 D+ F F C+ +2 B- A D+
 Tue, Jan 27 137 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 25% -9  1% 7 - 13 2 - 9 C+ +2 B- +5 A+ A+ F C- -3 F A D+
 Sat, Jan 31 155 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 52% +3  72% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D+ -7 D -4 B- F+ C+ C- -3 B- C- D-
 Tue, Feb 3 273 @Evansville W 84 - 63 53% +15  98% 8 - 14 3 - 10 A +18 A+ +18 A+ A- B C+ +2 C+ C+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 127 Southern Illinois L 65 - 80 44% -7  10% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -16 F -11 D B F+ D+ -4 D B+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 112 Murray St. L 83 - 86 39%
 Sun, Feb 15 155 @Valparaiso L 68 - 74 29%
 Wed, Feb 18 100 Northern Iowa L 62 - 67 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 78 @Belmont L 73 - 86 11%
 Wed, Feb 25 127 @Southern Illinois L 69 - 76 24%
 Sun, Mar 1 137 Illinois-Chicago L 72 - 73 46%
Totals 10 - 19 5 - 15 -2 C- -2 B- D+ D+ C -1 C C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B C+ D C 46% 9% 46% A B- D- C+ D+ D+ D- D D- C B- F B- C 41% 23% 35% C+ C D+ B- C D+ B+ C B
1.06 64% 40% 30% 0 +2 1.07 25% 1.0 .26 19% .25 69% .17 1.09 55% 46% 32% 0 0 1.01 33% 1.0 .31 15% .25 73% .18
Nov
3		 Charlotte C B C+ D- C 44% 10% 46% A C+ D- B D+ C+ B- C+ B- F C- A+ F C- 51% 12% 37% D- D+ F D+ F F F B+ F
1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25 1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33
Nov
10		 SIU Edwardsville F+ F A+ F F 37% 8% 55% A D- C+ D C- F C- B- C A+ C A- A+ A 29% 45% 25% A+ A D- A+ A B B A B+
0.90 44% 50% 26% -11 +1 0.84 35% 0.9 .30 24% .31 76% .24 0.77 56% 28% 21% -10 -4 0.75 33% 0.4 .14 21% .23 62% .14
Nov
14		 Duke D C- F D C- 43% 6% 51% A+ C+ C+ F D+ D- B F C+ C- C- D C+ B- 53% 4% 44% D- C+ F F F C B- A- B
0.81 52% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 24% .26 60% .15 1.31 66% 50% 33% +4 +3 1.16 48% 1.4 .70 16% .33 67% .22
Nov
19		 Louisiana Tech F F F D- F 34% 2% 64% B+ D- F D+ F C+ F B- F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 46% 30% 24% B- A+ A- C+ B C- D A+ C
0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15 0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18
Nov
22		 Ball St. D+ B- A+ F+ C- 42% 8% 50% A C+ C+ F F+ D+ F A+ D- A A+ F A+ B+ 34% 30% 36% A B+ F A C B+ A+ F A+
1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17 0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08
Nov
26		 Louisiana Tech C+ A+ F F A- 54% 8% 38% A A F A- F B F A+ F D+ C- F A+ F 43% 33% 24% A- F+ C- F F B- A+ F A
1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16 1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11
Nov
28		 Alcorn St. F F+ F F F 51% 4% 45% A- F F A+ C- F+ B+ A- A C- D- F C+ F 46% 20% 33% F+ F F A+ C A F+ A D+
0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32 1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18
Dec
7		 Southern Indiana B- A- F B+ B+ 52% 9% 39% A- A- F+ F F B- F A+ F B A- B- C- D+ 33% 25% 41% B- C- A+ A+ A+ F+ B+ F C+
1.18 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 14% .18 90% .16 0.84 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.84 16% 0.3 .05 14% .23 77% .18
Dec
14		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D+ A A+ F+ A 38% 17% 45% C- A- F A+ C- F F F+ F C+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% C+ A+ D F F F D- F F
1.07 72% 88% 29% +10 0 1.23 20% 1.6 .32 23% .12 67% .08 1.04 37% 50% 19% -13 -1 0.74 36% 1.3 .47 9% .32 79% .25
Dec
18		 Bradley D+ C+ F C+ D 36% 11% 53% A+ C- F F F A A+ D+ A+ D+ B- F A C 29% 34% 37% A B- C- D- D F C+ A+ B+
1.05 61% 0% 35% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.8 .16 15% .53 70% .37 1.14 55% 50% 29% 0 -2 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 8% .31 63% .20
Dec
21		 Illinois St. D+ B- F C+ C+ 41% 7% 52% A+ B F A+ F C+ A+ F A- D- F D- A D- 42% 32% 26% B D B+ A A F B+ F B-
0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28 1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19
Dec
29		 Belmont C- D+ F A+ B+ 39% 11% 50% A- A- C- D D+ C- A+ F C+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ 46% 11% 44% C- A C A+ B+ B B- F D+
1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21 1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Iowa B- A+ A+ F A+ 49% 6% 45% A+ A+ F F F C+ F F F D C F A+ C 65% 12% 22% F D+ F D- F C- D+ C+ C-
1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04 1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18
Jan
4		 Drake B- B F D D+ 39% 5% 57% A+ C B A+ A+ F A A+ A+ D+ B F D F 33% 29% 37% B F D- B C- C A+ A+ A+
1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07
Jan
10		 Evansville F D B- F F 47% 13% 40% A F C+ C- C B- C C- C- C B+ F+ F F+ 38% 23% 39% D- F+ A+ F A B- A+ F A+
0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20 1.00 52% 46% 45% +7 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07
Jan
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ B+ A A+ 46% 14% 40% A A+ C+ F F+ A+ A+ B A+ F D+ F F F 33% 29% 37% B+ F+ B F D- F+ F D- F
1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35 1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30
Jan
17		 Murray St. C+ C D B- C 58% 22% 20% B+ C+ C- A+ A- C- D F F+ C B- A+ C- B- 42% 7% 51% F+ C+ D C D+ C D A- C-
1.12 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.4 .45 17% .25 60% .15 1.18 57% 25% 36% 0 +2 1.05 36% 1.2 .42 15% .38 70% .26
Jan
21		 Bradley D- A+ B+ C- A- 40% 18% 42% A A- F F F F F D+ F B A- A A+ A+ 38% 22% 40% C- A+ C+ D- C- F F F F
0.95 75% 44% 33% +8 0 1.18 11% 0.7 .07 27% .19 70% .13 1.05 48% 25% 23% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.2 .31 4% .45 84% .38
Jan
24		 Drake F A+ C+ F D+ 33% 17% 50% B- D+ F+ F F F C F D+ C+ F A A- B- 30% 24% 46% B- B- C+ A+ A D+ D- B D+
0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18 1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25
Jan
27		 Illinois-Chicago B- A+ A+ C- A+ 43% 7% 50% A A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F F C- C D+ F F 45% 24% 31% C F C A+ A D+ C- D+ D+
1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09 1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Valparaiso D A F F C+ 52% 8% 40% A+ B- F D- F+ C+ B F C- C- A F A+ B+ 51% 29% 20% F B- F A- C- D- F+ B+ D+
1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20 1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
3		 Evansville A+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% B A+ B B+ A- B F F F C+ A- F A+ C- 17% 40% 43% A+ C+ D+ A- C+ D- D+ A C
1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09 1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21
Feb
9		 Southern Illinois F C- C+ F F 49% 10% 41% A D D- A+ B F+ D D D D+ D+ D C- D 46% 29% 25% D+ D F+ A+ B+ C- A+ D+ A
0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17 1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 3.3 0.5 6.5 9th
10th 7.5 26.0 30.1 16.5 2.8 0.1 82.9 10th
11th 4.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.1 11th
Total 12.1 29.7 30.9 19.3 6.6 1.3 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 6.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 6.5
6-14 19.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 19.1
5-15 30.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.3 30.6
4-16 29.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 29.7
3-17 12.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.9 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.1%