Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #188
Expected Predictive Rating -2.2 #206
Pace 72.7 #84
Improvement +2.5 #58

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #211 C+ D F C- A+
Defense #168 C+ A- D+ D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #54 1.25 #84 +5.2 #34
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #354 0.74 #196 -4.5 #353
Three Pointers 47% #67 0.90 #299 +0.5 #163
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #144 +1.3 #145
Freethrows 14.4 #312 73% #179 10.4 #301
Second Chance 23.0% #346 1.02 #219 0.23 #333
Turnovers 17.7% #251
Total Offense -1.7 #211

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #87 1.09 #103 -0.6 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #67 0.93 #352 -4.0 #359
Three Pointers 33% #351 0.88 #43 +6.1 #12
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #126 +1.5 #130
Freethrows 12.8 #21 75% #268 9.5 #338
Second Chance 34.0% #290 1.05 #205 0.36 #263
Turnovers 15.3% #265
Total Defense -0.2 #168

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.7% #13 -0.5% #122
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.1% #185 -2.8% #127
Possession Length 17.1 #158 16.8 #109
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #200 0.18 #224
Improvement +3.7 #12 -1.2 #257

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 15.2
.500 or above 14.8% 18.1% 5.2%
.500 or above in Conference 13.0% 16.0% 4.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.0% 6.8% 30.8%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 74.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 34 - 85 - 15
Quad 47 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 168 @Charlotte L 76-92 34%     -9.4   0 - 1 -13.7 +3.1 -17.0
  Mon, Nov 10 264 @SIU Edwardsville W 64-55 54%     6.5   1 - 1 +6.1 -7.9 +13.8
  Fri, Nov 14 6 @Duke L 62-100 2%     -18.9   1 - 2 -14.0 -5.0 -5.7
  Wed, Nov 19 215 Louisiana Tech W 60-51 66%     4.9   2 - 2 +3.0 -13.8 +16.6
  Sat, Nov 22 318 Ball St. W 70-52 84%     1.8   3 - 2 +5.7 -2.7 +9.8
  Wed, Nov 26 215 @Louisiana Tech L 73-75 43%     -1.2   3 - 3 -2.0 +6.2 -8.3
  Fri, Nov 28 345 Alcorn St. L 74-81 83%     -11.5   3 - 4 -19.0 -13.8 -4.3
  Sun, Dec 7 328 Southern Indiana W 77-55 86%     11.0   4 - 4 +8.7 +5.4 +4.8
  Sun, Dec 14 202 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70-68 41%     0.6   5 - 4 +2.5 +0.9 +1.7
  Thu, Dec 18 115 Bradley L 99-108 3OT 40%     -0.8   5 - 5 0 - 1 -8.4 +1.3 -7.4
  Sun, Dec 21 82 @Illinois St. L 65-85 14%     -14.6   5 - 6 0 - 2 -10.0 -1.1 -9.6
  Mon, Dec 29 71 Belmont W 81-80 OT 25%     -2.3   6 - 6 1 - 2 +6.0 +2.7 +3.2
  Thu, Jan 1 95 @Northern Iowa L 66-75 17%     -1.0   6 - 7 1 - 3 -0.6 +7.3 -8.7
  Sun, Jan 4 170 @Drake L 72-74 35%     0.2   6 - 8 1 - 4 +0.2 +7.3 -7.3
  Sat, Jan 10 263 Evansville W 75-68 74%    
  Wed, Jan 14 82 Illinois St. L 71-77 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 91 @Murray St. L 76-87 15%    
  Wed, Jan 21 115 @Bradley L 70-78 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 170 Drake W 74-72 58%    
  Tue, Jan 27 186 @Illinois-Chicago L 72-75 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 189 Valparaiso W 73-70 61%    
  Tue, Feb 3 263 @Evansville W 72-71 54%    
  Mon, Feb 9 130 Southern Illinois L 74-75 46%    
  Thu, Feb 12 91 Murray St. L 79-84 32%    
  Sun, Feb 15 189 @Valparaiso L 70-73 39%    
  Wed, Feb 18 95 Northern Iowa L 63-67 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 71 @Belmont L 73-86 12%    
  Wed, Feb 25 130 @Southern Illinois L 71-78 27%    
  Sun, Mar 1 186 Illinois-Chicago W 75-72 61%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.1 3.9 1.0 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 6.6 5.2 1.2 0.1 15.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.9 6.6 1.5 0.1 19.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 4.0 8.6 6.3 1.3 0.1 20.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 4.7 7.7 4.3 1.0 0.1 19.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.9 11th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.6 7.5 12.9 16.3 17.8 16.1 11.5 7.3 3.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 12.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.4% 11.4% 11.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.5% 7.8% 7.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
11-9 3.7% 4.0% 4.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.5
10-10 7.3% 1.9% 1.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.1
9-11 11.5% 1.4% 1.4% 14.6 0.1 0.1 11.3
8-12 16.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.2 0.1 0.0 16.0
7-13 17.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 17.7
6-14 16.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.2
5-15 12.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.9
4-16 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
3-17 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%