Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 200
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 255
Pace 70.4 127
Improvement +2.5 82

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 202 B- D+ D+ D- A
Defense C- 207 C C- D+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 24 B 64% 62 +6.6 14
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 347 B- 41% 74 -4.2 351
Three Pointers 46% 78 D 31% 298 +0.4 161
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.0 8 C+ +0.7 143
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 93
Second Chance D 25.0% 326 C 1.04 155 D+ 0.26 290
Turnovers D+ 18.4% 277
Freethrows D 0.26 325 D 68% 319 D- 0.18 340
Total Offense C- -1.3 202

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 120 C+ 56% 121 +0.5 193
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 86 F 46% 354 +3.0 349
Three Pointers 36% 322 B- 32% 96 -3.7 43
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 134 C +0.0 185
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 173
Second Chance D 33.7% 306 B- 0.97 91 C- 0.33 225
Turnovers D+ 15.3% 274
Freethrows B 0.26 41 C+ 71% 111 B 0.18 43
Total Defense C- -1.1 207

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 180 17.0 129
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 211 0.20 262
Improvement +4.2 #17 -1.7 #276

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 35% 14% 44%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 33 - 94 - 17
Quad 45 - 410 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 184 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 36% -9  9% 0 - 1 F+ -15 C- -1 C+ D C F -14 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 236 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 46% +6  88% 1 - 1 B- +8 F+ -9 D- C- F A+ +17 A A+ B
 Fri, Nov 14 3 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  13% 1 - 2 D- -11 D -5 C+ D+ F+ C- -3 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 221 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 65% +5  95% 2 - 2 C+ +3 F -16 D- F C+ A+ +19 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Nov 22 314 Ball St. W 70 - 52 82% +2  39% 3 - 2 B- +6 D+ -3 C+ D- D+ A +11 B+ C- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 221 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 42% -1  34% 3 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 A F B+ D -6 D- F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 348 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 84% -11  1% 3 - 4 F -20 F -17 F C- D- C- -2 F C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 340 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 88% +11  89% 4 - 4 B- +7 C+ +3 A- F B- B +5 C- A+ F+
 Sun, Dec 14 269 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 53% +1  45% 5 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 A- C- F C+ +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 114 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 40% -1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -9 C- -2 C F A D+ -5 B- D F
 Sun, Dec 21 103 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 17% -15  10% 5 - 6 0 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 B F C+ F+ -10 D A- F
 Mon, Dec 29 70 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 24% -2  24% 6 - 6 1 - 2 B- +6 C- -1 A- D+ C- B+ +7 A B B
 Thu, Jan 1 91 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 15% -1  32% 6 - 7 1 - 3 C -0 B- +5 A+ F C D -6 C- F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 189 @Drake L 72 - 74 37% +0  48% 6 - 8 1 - 4 C -1 C+ +3 C- A+ F D+ -4 F C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 278 Evansville L 69 - 72 76% -0  37% 6 - 9 1 - 5 D- -13 F -12 F C B- C -1 F+ A B-
 Wed, Jan 14 103 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 35% +6  87% 7 - 9 2 - 5 B- +7 A+ +22 A+ F+ A+ F -16 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 119 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 21% -5  1% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +2 C+ +3 C+ A- C- C -1 C+ D C-
 Wed, Jan 21 114 @Bradley L 68 - 75 21% +3  82% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -1 D -5 A F F B +5 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 189 Drake L 62 - 76 60% -5  4% 7 - 12 2 - 8 F -19 F -20 D+ F F C+ +2 B- A D+
 Tue, Jan 27 117 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 21% -9  1% 7 - 13 2 - 9 C+ +4 B +6 A+ A+ F C- -2 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 170 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 55% +3  72% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D+ -8 D -5 B- F+ C C- -2 B C D-
 Tue, Feb 3 278 @Evansville W 84 - 63 56% +15  98% 8 - 14 3 - 10 A- +17 A+ +18 A+ B+ B C+ +2 C+ C+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 128 Southern Illinois L 65 - 80 45% -7  10% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -16 F -11 D- B F+ D+ -4 D B+ C
 Thu, Feb 12 119 Murray St. L 72 - 74 41% -9  0% 8 - 16 3 - 12 C- -2 C- -1 A F F+ C -1 B- F A
 Sun, Feb 15 170 @Valparaiso L 75 - 76 32% -3  13% 8 - 17 3 - 13 C +1 A +13 A- A A- F -12 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 18 91 Northern Iowa L 63 - 68 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 70 @Belmont L 73 - 86 10%
 Wed, Feb 25 128 @Southern Illinois L 69 - 76 25%
 Sun, Mar 1 117 Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 73 41%
Totals 9 - 20 4 - 16 -2 C- -1 A- C+ A C- -1 D D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B B- D C+ 45% 19% 46% A B- D C D+ D+ D D D- C- C+ F B- C 41% 23% 36% C+ C D B- C- D+ B C+ B
1.07 64% 41% 31% +1 +2 1.08 25% 1.0 .26 18% .26 68% .18 1.10 56% 46% 32% 0 0 1.02 34% 1.0 .33 15% .26 71% .18
Nov
3		 Charlotte C- B C+ D- C 44% 10% 46% A- C+ D- B D C B- C B- F C- A+ F C- 51% 12% 37% D- D+ F D+ F F F B F
1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25 1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33
Nov
10		 SIU Edwardsville F+ F A+ F F 37% 8% 55% A D- C+ D C- F C- B- C A+ C A- A+ A 29% 45% 25% A+ A D A+ A+ B B A B+
0.90 44% 50% 26% -11 +1 0.84 35% 0.9 .30 24% .31 76% .24 0.77 56% 28% 21% -10 -4 0.75 33% 0.4 .14 21% .23 62% .14
Nov
14		 Duke D C F D C- 43% 6% 51% A+ C+ C+ F D+ F+ B+ F C+ C- C- D- C+ B- 53% 4% 44% D- C+ F F F C B- A- B
0.81 52% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 24% .26 60% .15 1.31 66% 50% 33% +4 +3 1.16 48% 1.4 .70 16% .33 67% .22
Nov
19		 Louisiana Tech F F F D- F 34% 2% 64% A- D- F D+ F C+ F B- F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 46% 30% 24% B- A+ B+ C B- D+ D- A+ C-
0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15 0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18
Nov
22		 Ball St. D+ B- A+ F+ C- 42% 8% 50% A C+ C+ F D- D+ F A+ D- A A+ F A+ B 34% 30% 36% A B+ F A C- B+ A+ F A+
1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17 0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08
Nov
26		 Louisiana Tech B- A+ F F A- 54% 8% 38% A A F A- F B+ F A+ F D C- F A+ F 43% 33% 24% A- D- D+ F F C+ A+ F A
1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16 1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11
Nov
28		 Alcorn St. F F+ F F F 51% 4% 45% A- F F A+ C- D- A- A- A C- D- F C+ F 46% 20% 33% F+ F F A+ C+ A+ F+ A D+
0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32 1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18
Dec
7		 Southern Indiana C+ A- F B B+ 52% 9% 39% A- A- F+ F F B- F A+ F B A- B- C- C- 33% 25% 41% C+ C- A+ A+ A+ F+ A- F B-
1.18 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 14% .18 90% .16 0.84 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.84 16% 0.3 .05 14% .23 77% .18
Dec
14		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D+ A A+ F+ A 38% 17% 45% C- A- F A+ C- F F F F C+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% C+ A+ D- F F F D F F
1.07 72% 88% 29% +10 0 1.23 20% 1.6 .32 23% .12 67% .08 1.04 37% 50% 19% -13 -1 0.74 36% 1.3 .47 9% .32 79% .25
Dec
18		 Bradley C- C+ F C+ D+ 36% 11% 53% A+ C F F+ F A A+ D A+ D+ B- F A C 29% 34% 37% A B- C- D- D F C+ A+ B+
1.05 61% 0% 35% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.8 .16 15% .53 70% .37 1.14 55% 50% 29% 0 -2 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 8% .31 63% .20
Dec
21		 Illinois St. D+ B- F C+ C+ 41% 7% 52% A+ B F A+ F C+ A+ F A F+ F D- A F+ 42% 32% 26% B D B A+ A- F B+ F C+
0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28 1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19
Dec
29		 Belmont C- D+ F A+ B+ 39% 11% 50% A- A- C- D D+ C- A+ F C B+ A+ A+ F A+ 46% 11% 44% C- A C- A+ B B B- F D+
1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21 1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Iowa B- A+ A+ F A+ 49% 6% 45% A+ A+ F F F C F F F D C F A+ C 65% 12% 22% F C- F D F C- C- B- C
1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04 1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18
Jan
4		 Drake C+ B- F D D 39% 5% 57% A+ C- B A+ A+ F A A+ A+ D+ B F D F 33% 29% 37% B+ F D- B+ C- C A+ A+ A+
1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07
Jan
10		 Evansville F D B- F F 47% 13% 40% A F C C- C B- C D+ C- C B+ F+ F F+ 38% 23% 39% D- F+ A+ F A B- A+ F A+
0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20 1.00 52% 46% 45% +7 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07
Jan
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ B+ A A+ 46% 14% 40% A+ A+ C+ F F+ A+ A+ B A+ F D+ F F F 33% 29% 37% B+ F+ B- F D- F F D F
1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35 1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30
Jan
17		 Murray St. C+ C D B- C 58% 22% 20% B+ C+ C- A+ A- C- D F F C B- A+ D+ B- 42% 7% 51% F C+ D C- D C- D A- C-
1.12 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.4 .45 17% .25 60% .15 1.18 57% 25% 36% 0 +2 1.05 36% 1.2 .42 15% .38 70% .26
Jan
21		 Bradley D A+ B+ C- A- 40% 18% 42% A A F F F F F D+ F B A A A+ A+ 38% 22% 40% C- A+ C D- C- F F F F
0.95 75% 44% 33% +8 0 1.18 11% 0.7 .07 27% .19 70% .13 1.05 48% 25% 23% -14 0 0.75 26% 1.2 .31 4% .45 84% .38
Jan
24		 Drake F A+ C+ F D 33% 17% 50% B D+ F+ F F F C+ F D+ C+ F A A- B- 30% 24% 46% B- B- C+ A+ A D+ F+ B D
0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18 1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25
Jan
27		 Illinois-Chicago B A+ A+ C- A+ 43% 7% 50% A A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F F C- C D+ F F 45% 24% 31% C- F C A+ A+ D+ D+ D+ D
1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09 1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Valparaiso D A F F C 52% 8% 40% A+ B- F D- F+ C B F D+ C- A+ F A+ B+ 51% 29% 20% F B F A C D- F+ B+ D
1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20 1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
3		 Evansville A+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% B A+ B B+ B+ B F F F C+ A- F A+ C- 17% 40% 43% A+ C+ D+ A- C+ D- D A C
1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09 1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21
Feb
9		 Southern Illinois F C- C+ F F 49% 10% 41% A D- D- A+ B F+ D+ D D+ D+ D+ D D+ D- 46% 29% 25% C- D F+ A+ B+ C A C- A
0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17 1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14
Feb
12		 Murray St. C- F A+ A+ A 38% 10% 52% A- A C+ F F F+ A+ F A+ C D+ F A+ B- 40% 21% 40% C+ B- F C F A F B D-
1.11 38% 100% 45% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.6 .21 20% .52 59% .31 1.14 63% 50% 26% 0 0 1.02 45% 1.1 .52 22% .41 71% .29
Feb
15		 Valparaiso A A+ F F B+ 55% 14% 31% A A- B- A+ A A- F+ D+ F+ F F C- F F 27% 36% 36% B+ F F B- F C- D- A+ B+
1.23 78% 14% 27% +4 +2 1.14 35% 1.2 .42 13% .24 69% .17 1.24 83% 38% 44% +12 -3 1.20 44% 1.0 .44 15% .40 48% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 2.0 0.3 2.3 9th
10th 20.3 37.9 23.7 3.9 0.0 85.9 10th
11th 8.5 3.1 0.1 11.8 11th
Total 28.8 41.1 23.8 5.9 0.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 5.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.8
5-15 23.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 23.6
4-16 41.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 40.8
3-17 28.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 28.7
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 20.5%