Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#175
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#195
Pace75.0#55
Improvement-2.8#344

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#171
First Shot+4.2#61
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#349
Layup/Dunks+5.1#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#143
Freethrows+1.6#82
Improvement-1.3#305

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#185
First Shot-1.5#230
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#106
Layups/Dunks+0.2#193
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#242
Freethrows+0.9#137
Improvement-1.5#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 4.4% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.2 14.3
.500 or above 33.9% 60.7% 31.7%
.500 or above in Conference 38.5% 68.5% 36.1%
Conference Champion 1.3% 7.4% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.2% 2.9% 11.9%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round1.9% 4.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 7.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 34 - 65 - 14
Quad 49 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 300   @ Green Bay W 81-77 66%     1 - 0 -0.7 +1.7 -2.6
  Nov 12, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 67-92 3%     1 - 1 -2.5 -0.8 -0.7
  Nov 18, 2021 234   Old Dominion W 77-36 62%     2 - 1 +37.5 +6.5 +32.7
  Nov 19, 2021 35   Oklahoma L 63-87 13%     2 - 2 -12.3 -7.2 -3.6
  Nov 20, 2021 94   New Mexico St. L 66-80 28%     2 - 3 -8.3 -3.6 -5.2
  Nov 27, 2021 213   @ Ball St. L 75-97 45%     2 - 4 -21.2 -1.8 -18.6
  Dec 01, 2021 34   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-76 7%    
  Dec 04, 2021 136   Miami (OH) W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 13, 2021 166   @ North Dakota St. L 68-71 37%    
  Dec 18, 2021 341   Alabama A&M W 79-63 92%    
  Dec 22, 2021 310   @ Northern Illinois W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 29, 2021 303   Coppin St. W 82-71 83%    
  Jan 02, 2022 212   Bradley W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 05, 2022 245   Evansville W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 08, 2022 57   @ Drake L 66-77 15%    
  Jan 11, 2022 112   @ Northern Iowa L 73-80 26%    
  Jan 15, 2022 34   Loyola Chicago L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 19, 2022 156   @ Southern Illinois L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 22, 2022 201   Valparaiso W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 25, 2022 93   Missouri St. L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 30, 2022 212   @ Bradley L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 02, 2022 57   Drake L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 05, 2022 201   @ Valparaiso L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 09, 2022 245   @ Evansville W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 12, 2022 244   Illinois St. W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 15, 2022 93   @ Missouri St. L 73-82 21%    
  Feb 19, 2022 156   Southern Illinois W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 23, 2022 112   Northern Iowa L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 26, 2022 244   @ Illinois St. W 78-77 53%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.8 3.2 0.7 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.5 6.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 16.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 5.4 6.6 2.4 0.3 16.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.1 5.9 2.1 0.2 14.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.4 5.0 1.6 0.1 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 3.4 0.9 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 6.6 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.7 6.2 9.3 12.4 13.8 13.8 12.4 10.3 7.1 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 85.7% 0.1    0.1
15-3 68.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-4 38.3% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
13-5 10.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.5% 24.0% 24.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.2% 9.2% 9.2% 12.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.5% 10.4% 10.4% 13.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
12-6 4.5% 6.3% 6.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.2
11-7 7.1% 3.5% 3.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9
10-8 10.3% 2.5% 2.5% 14.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0
9-9 12.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.1
8-10 13.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.6
7-11 13.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 13.7
6-12 12.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.4
5-13 9.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.3
4-14 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-15 3.7% 3.7
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 98.0 0.0%