Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 #198
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #244
Pace 72.6 #81
Improvement +2.1 #92

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #223 B- D D+ D- A-
Defense #183 C C D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #26 1.29 #59 +7.1 #10
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #354 0.81 #93 -4.2 #350
Three Pointers 46% #84 0.90 #321 -0.2 #186
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #101 +2.7 #100
Freethrows 0.25 #326 69% #289 0.17 #338
Second Chance 24.8% #330 1.00 #225 0.25 #318
Turnovers 18.3% #285
Total Offense -2.0 #223

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #92 1.09 #85 -0.6 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #91 0.91 #354 -2.7 #347
Three Pointers 35% #336 0.96 #98 +4.2 #32
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #151 +0.8 #151
Freethrows 0.25 #38 73% #212 0.18 #43
Second Chance 32.1% #247 1.01 #147 0.32 #208
Turnovers 14.8% #295
Total Defense -0.5 #183

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.0% #8 -0.1% #158
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.1% #153 -1.5% #154
Possession Length 17.2 #171 16.6 #80
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #202 0.20 #268
Improvement +2.8 #57 -0.7 #229

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.8% 6.2% 43.3%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 33 - 95 - 16
Quad 45 - 410 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 157 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 30% -9  0 - 1 -13 +3 C+ D+ C -16 C- F F
 Mon, Nov 10 252 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 49% +6  1 - 1 +7 -7 D C- F +14 A A+ B
 Fri, Nov 14 3 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  1 - 2 -11 -3 C+ D+ D- -5 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 215 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 64% +5  2 - 2 +3 -15 D- F C +17 A+ B C-
 Sat, Nov 22 298 Ball St. W 70 - 52 79% +2  3 - 2 +7 -1 C D- D+ +10 A- C- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 215 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 41% -1  3 - 3 -2 +5 A F B- -8 F+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 28 348 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 81% -11  3 - 4 -19 -13 F C F+ -5 F C+ A-
 Sun, Dec 7 332 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 85% +11  4 - 4 +8 +7 B+ F B- +3 C- A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 254 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 49% +1  5 - 4 -0 +0 A- C- F -0 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 121 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 42% -1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -9 -0 C- F A+ -7 C+ D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 87 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 13% -15  5 - 6 0 - 2 -11 -0 B F C -11 D A F
 Mon, Dec 29 74 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 24% -2  6 - 6 1 - 2 +6 +2 A- D+ C +3 A B B
 Thu, Jan 1 110 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 19% -1  6 - 7 1 - 3 -2 +7 A+ F C -10 D+ F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 162 @Drake L 72 - 74 31% +0  6 - 8 1 - 4 +1 +8 C A+ F -8 F D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 269 Evansville L 69 - 72 74% -0  6 - 9 1 - 5 -12 -8 F C B- -4 F A C+
 Wed, Jan 14 87 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 28% +6  7 - 9 2 - 5 +8 +26 A+ F+ A+ -17 F+ D F+
 Sat, Jan 17 106 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 18% -5  7 - 10 2 - 6 +3 +6 C+ B+ C- -3 C+ D+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 121 @Bradley L 68 - 75 22% +3  7 - 11 2 - 7 -1 -4 A- F F +3 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 162 Drake L 62 - 76 53% -5  7 - 12 2 - 8 -17 -15 C- F F -1 C+ A- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 135 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 25% -9  7 - 13 2 - 9 +3 +7 A+ A+ F -5 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 160 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 53% +3  7 - 14 2 - 10 -7 -2 B- D- C -5 B D+ D
 Tue, Feb 3 269 @Evansville W 73 - 72 53%
 Mon, Feb 9 137 Southern Illinois L 73 - 74 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 106 Murray St. L 82 - 86 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 160 @Valparaiso L 69 - 74 31%
 Wed, Feb 18 110 Northern Iowa L 63 - 66 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 74 @Belmont L 73 - 86 11%
 Wed, Feb 25 137 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 77 26%
 Sun, Mar 1 135 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 74 46%
Totals 10 - 19 5 - 15 -2 -2 B- D D+ +0 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.7 0.1 4.2 8th
9th 0.2 3.1 8.2 6.0 0.8 0.0 18.2 9th
10th 0.6 8.7 21.6 22.8 10.4 1.5 0.0 65.6 10th
11th 2.7 5.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.1 11th
Total 3.2 13.9 24.5 26.5 19.0 9.3 2.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.1% 0.1
9-11 0.6% 0.6
8-12 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 2.9
7-13 9.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 9.2
6-14 19.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 18.9
5-15 26.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 26.4
4-16 24.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 24.4
3-17 13.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.9
2-18 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.8 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%