Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 190
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 180
Pace 73.5 57
Improvement -3.0 301

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 215 C D C D B+
Defense C 183 C- C C+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 117 C 59% 156 +1.5 116
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 329 F 28% 362 -4.5 358
Three Pointers 47% 52 C+ 34% 156 +3.5 68
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.2 33 C -0.7 194
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 154
Second Chance D- 24.6% 330 C 1.05 150 D 0.26 303
Turnovers C 16.7% 167
Freethrows F+ 0.23 353 B+ 77% 26 D 0.18 325
Total Offense C- -1.5 215

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 145 C+ 10.3% 138
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 209 F 11.4% 359
Three Pointers B+ 93% 22 C- 1.2% 255
Total B+ 64% 38 C- 6.1% 236

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 258 D+ 62% 282 +0.0 180
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 86 C 38% 166 +1.0 266
Three Pointers 40% 198 C 34% 200 +0.0 186
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 91 C- +1.4 238
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 213
Second Chance C- 31.1% 212 C+ 1.01 151 C 0.31 194
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 135
Freethrows C+ 0.29 127 C+ 71% 111 C+ 0.20 110
Total Defense C -0.5 183

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 128 D+ 8.2% 295
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 23 C 5.1% 157
Three Pointers B+ 77% 26 C 1.0% 139
Total B 50% 67 D+ 4.5% 265

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.3 78 17.2 172
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 85 0.18 206
Improvement -0.6 #224 -2.3 #299

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 219 191 161
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 13 - 5
Conference Finish 4 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 17% 14%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round17% 17% 14%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 89.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 415 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 14 @Vanderbilt L 61 - 105 2% -29  0% 0 - 1 F -22 F+ -9 F C F F -11 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 175 @Mercer L 77 - 92 35% -8  1% 0 - 2 D- -13 C+ +2 C- B- B- F -15 F F F
 Tue, Nov 11 226 @UNC Asheville L 64 - 69 44% -4  9% 0 - 3 D+ -6 D -5 F C C+ C -0 F+ F+ A
 Wed, Nov 19 68 @Belmont L 68 - 75 11% -7  4% 0 - 4 C+ +4 F -11 F B+ F A+ +16 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 254 Western Carolina W 83 - 62 72% +12  77% 1 - 4 B+ +13 D+ -4 C C C+ A+ +16 B+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 173 @Marshall W 90 - 67 34% +17  94% 2 - 4 A+ +25 B- +4 A+ F D A+ +19 A+ C- A
 Sat, Nov 29 227 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 77 45% +4  76% 3 - 4 B +10 B- +4 B+ D- D B+ +5 B+ B+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 314 Tennessee Tech W 83 - 80 83% +1  52% 4 - 4 D -9 D+ -4 C- F C D -6 F+ C D-
 Sun, Dec 7 307 Alabama A&M W 92 - 58 82% +13  95% 5 - 4 A +22 A+ +18 A+ B- A+ A- +7 A- C+ C+
 Tue, Dec 16 2 @Duke L 73 - 97 1% -5  33% 5 - 5 C+ +3 C +1 B F C+ B+ +6 B+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 46 @Cincinnati L 62 - 89 7% -16  12% 5 - 6 D- -13 D+ -3 C- B- C+ F+ -8 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 1 308 Jacksonville W 76 - 57 82% +9  93% 6 - 6 1 - 0 B- +7 A- +10 A- F A+ C+ +1 C D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 339 North Florida W 82 - 74 88% +2  50% 7 - 6 2 - 0 D+ -7 D- -6 F D A- C -1 C+ B C
 Thu, Jan 8 327 @Stetson L 83 - 91 71% -11  2% 7 - 7 2 - 1 F+ -16 D -5 C+ F F+ F -10 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 253 @Florida Gulf Coast W 84 - 77 51% +1  62% 8 - 7 3 - 1 B- +5 B- +4 B- C F+ C+ +0 D+ C+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 287 Bellarmine W 81 - 71 78% +14  97% 9 - 7 4 - 1 C -0 C- -2 D+ C+ D- B- +2 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 17 154 Austin Peay W 82 - 78 54% +2  70% 10 - 7 5 - 1 C +1 C +1 B F+ B C -0 C+ C- B
 Thu, Jan 22 327 Stetson W 79 - 74 OT 86% +5  81% 11 - 7 6 - 1 D -9 F -15 F+ F B B+ +5 C+ A A-
 Fri, Jan 23 253 Florida Gulf Coast W 86 - 71 72% +5  68% 12 - 7 7 - 1 B- +7 A+ +15 A+ A+ C D -6 B F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 308 @Jacksonville L 65 - 70 64% -8  0% 12 - 8 7 - 2 D -11 C- -2 D- B+ A- F+ -9 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 339 @North Florida W 100 - 94 75% -2  38% 13 - 8 8 - 2 C- -3 A +12 A+ F A- F -15 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 154 @Austin Peay L 76 - 87 31% -4  32% 13 - 9 8 - 3 D+ -8 C +1 C+ C- B- F+ -9 F A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 180 Central Arkansas L 78 - 86 59% -9  0% 13 - 10 8 - 4 D- -12 D+ -3 B D+ C- F+ -9 C- F C
 Wed, Feb 11 278 Eastern Kentucky W 75 - 61 77% +8  77% 14 - 10 9 - 4 C+ +4 D+ -3 C- F+ D+ A- +8 C A B
 Sat, Feb 14 204 @Queens L 81 - 87 41% -11  5% 14 - 11 9 - 5 D+ -6 F+ -8 D+ D F B- +3 F B A+
 Wed, Feb 18 287 @Bellarmine W 75 - 72 59% +1  57% 15 - 11 10 - 5 C -1 C- -2 B F D C+ +1 B D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 340 North Alabama W 81 - 68 89%
 Wed, Feb 25 318 @West Georgia W 80 - 75 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 278 @Eastern Kentucky W 80 - 78 57%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 6 -2 C- -2 A- C B+ C +0 C+ B+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C F C+ C 41% 23% 47% B+ C D- C D C F+ B+ D C D+ C C C- 36% 23% 40% B- C- C- C+ C C+ C+ C+ C+
1.06 59% 28% 34% -1 +1 1.03 25% 1.0 .26 17% .23 77% .18 1.09 62% 38% 34% +1 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 18% .29 71% .17
Nov
3		 Vanderbilt F+ F F F F 34% 18% 48% B F D+ A- C F B+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F 35% 20% 45% B- F A+ A+ A+ F A A A+
0.82 41% 11% 25% -17 0 0.68 24% 1.1 .26 24% .39 95% .37 1.40 76% 25% 63% +23 0 1.48 24% 0.5 .12 8% .25 71% .17
Nov
9		 Mercer C+ C F C+ D+ 42% 9% 49% A- C- C B B- B- F A+ F F F A+ F F 43% 22% 34% D+ F D F F F A+ B A+
1.12 57% 20% 37% 0 +2 1.05 33% 1.1 .36 16% .12 86% .10 1.34 76% 23% 45% +10 0 1.22 37% 1.4 .50 12% .21 69% .15
Nov
11		 UNC Asheville D D+ A F F 42% 12% 46% B- F A- F+ C C+ D+ B+ C- C D F D F 26% 37% 37% C+ F+ C- F F+ A F A- F
0.99 55% 50% 21% -9 +1 0.87 39% 0.8 .29 15% .27 73% .20 1.07 64% 50% 38% +8 -3 1.12 31% 1.2 .38 23% .48 63% .30
Nov
19		 Belmont F F B F F 27% 8% 64% B F B- A- B+ F F A+ F+ A+ C+ B A A+ 33% 7% 60% C A+ D B- C- A+ F D F
0.87 31% 40% 24% -17 +1 0.69 36% 1.2 .42 24% .17 90% .15 0.96 60% 33% 30% -4 +1 0.98 31% 1.2 .37 28% .52 72% .38
Nov
22		 Western Carolina D+ B- F B C- 35% 10% 55% B C D+ A- C C+ F F F A+ F F A+ B+ 25% 22% 53% B+ B+ A+ F B+ A+ C+ A+ B
1.11 64% 17% 38% +3 +1 1.11 25% 1.2 .30 15% .09 50% .05 0.83 77% 55% 15% -7 -1 0.86 15% 1.8 .26 24% .27 60% .16
Nov
26		 Marshall B- A- D+ A+ A+ 37% 17% 46% B- A+ F D F D B+ F+ B- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 35% 22% 43% D A+ B- F+ C- A F D- F
1.16 68% 33% 50% +14 0 1.31 18% 0.8 .15 19% .41 65% .27 0.86 53% 25% 17% -15 0 0.70 29% 1.3 .37 22% .36 77% .28
Nov
29		 Southeast Missouri St. B- B- F+ A+ B+ 43% 11% 45% B B+ F A- D- D C+ C- C+ B+ B- D- A+ B+ 43% 26% 30% B B+ D A+ B+ A- F F F
1.10 61% 33% 42% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.3 .24 20% .40 73% .30 0.96 52% 43% 19% -8 0 0.85 32% 0.8 .26 21% .47 77% .36
Dec
3		 Tennessee Tech D+ C F C- D+ 36% 7% 57% B+ C- D F F C B- D- C D A+ F F F 30% 32% 39% A F+ B- D+ C D- C B+ C+
1.12 60% 25% 34% 0 +2 1.05 26% 1.0 .26 15% .32 70% .22 1.08 41% 50% 45% +5 -2 1.09 28% 1.1 .31 16% .27 71% .19
Dec
7		 Alabama A&M A+ A A+ B- A 53% 5% 42% A A+ F A+ B- A+ F F F A- A A B- A 40% 32% 28% B- A- F A+ C+ C+ D- B- D
1.40 73% 67% 38% +12 +3 1.32 21% 1.7 .36 6% .21 62% .13 0.88 42% 27% 31% -11 -1 0.77 33% 0.7 .23 18% .39 71% .28
Dec
16		 Duke C C- F C+ C+ 50% 14% 36% A+ B F F F C+ A+ A+ A+ B+ C F A- A 50% 6% 44% D+ B+ F D+ F A+ C- D- D
0.89 52% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.95 8% 0.0 .00 19% .30 90% .27 1.18 63% 67% 29% +1 +3 1.09 53% 1.3 .68 27% .36 77% .28
Dec
29		 Cincinnati D+ D+ A F+ D 38% 4% 58% A+ C- F+ A+ B- C+ D F F+ F+ C- A+ D C 40% 15% 45% D- C- D F F F A+ B- A+
0.86 47% 50% 28% -9 +2 0.88 16% 1.8 .30 19% .22 54% .12 1.23 63% 22% 37% +1 +1 1.07 36% 1.4 .49 11% .14 67% .09
Jan
1		 Jacksonville A- A+ F A+ A 40% 16% 44% C+ A- F F F A+ F A+ F C+ D- A- B- C- 27% 24% 49% B+ C F B+ D A+ C+ B C+
1.29 75% 25% 45% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.7 .14 7% .20 91% .18 0.97 64% 30% 30% -3 -1 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 25% .27 67% .18
Jan
3		 North Florida D- F F C F 26% 18% 56% D- F C- F+ D A- B+ D+ B C A+ D+ D+ C+ 23% 12% 65% B- C+ D- A+ B C A+ F A+
1.16 47% 20% 34% -6 0 0.89 35% 1.1 .37 8% .34 68% .23 1.05 43% 43% 36% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 18% .07 100% .07
Jan
8		 Stetson D C+ A+ D- C 50% 12% 38% A- C+ F A F F+ A+ C- A F F F D+ F 34% 13% 53% D- F A+ A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.08 65% 67% 30% +5 +2 1.15 17% 1.4 .23 18% .38 71% .27 1.19 78% 57% 36% +11 +1 1.25 13% 0.5 .06 14% .44 79% .35
Jan
10		 Florida Gulf Coast B- F+ F A+ B- 39% 12% 49% B- B- D A C F+ C A+ B+ C+ C- F A- D 35% 38% 27% A- D+ B+ D C+ D D A+ C
1.17 50% 17% 48% +5 +1 1.14 25% 1.3 .32 20% .37 86% .31 1.08 61% 55% 29% +5 -3 1.08 26% 1.1 .29 15% .31 63% .20
Jan
15		 Bellarmine C- C+ A C- D 39% 9% 52% B+ D+ A- D- C+ D- A+ F B B- A+ F A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% A A+ F A+ D F F A+ F
1.22 65% 50% 35% +4 +2 1.14 43% 1.0 .43 18% .42 61% .26 1.07 41% 55% 20% -12 0 0.77 32% 0.9 .27 9% .50 67% .33
Jan
17		 Austin Peay C B- A+ D- C+ 62% 7% 31% A+ B D F F+ B F+ A+ B C B+ D+ C- C- 33% 33% 34% A+ C+ C+ D- C- B B C- B-
1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24 1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20
Jan
22		 Stetson F C- F D F 41% 19% 41% C F+ F F F B C A- C+ B+ C B+ C C 36% 28% 36% B- C+ D A+ A A- B F C-
0.98 62% 25% 31% -3 0 0.97 18% 0.5 .09 12% .27 79% .21 0.92 57% 31% 33% -3 -1 0.95 29% 0.5 .16 22% .24 87% .21
Jan
23		 Florida Gulf Coast A+ D+ F A+ A+ 19% 15% 66% D A+ B+ A+ A+ C D- A+ C D F A+ D+ B 17% 28% 54% A- B C F F D- F A D-
1.36 56% 0% 55% +15 -1 1.30 37% 1.3 .48 16% .30 88% .26 1.13 75% 15% 36% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.6 .50 14% .37 65% .24
Jan
29		 Jacksonville C- C- C+ F F 58% 10% 32% A D- F A+ B+ A- F C F F+ F+ C- D F 43% 21% 36% C- F C D+ D+ F C F D+
1.08 59% 40% 25% -4 +3 1.00 19% 2.0 .38 12% .19 70% .13 1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.1 .32 12% .28 80% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Florida A A- F A+ A 59% 5% 36% A+ A+ F A+ F A- F A- D- F D+ A+ F F 33% 5% 62% D F F C- F C- D+ F F
1.37 69% 33% 45% +13 +3 1.34 18% 1.6 .29 8% .19 77% .15 1.29 61% 0% 44% +8 +2 1.22 37% 1.2 .43 18% .27 94% .25
Feb
4		 Austin Peay C A F F C- 51% 9% 40% A C+ F A C- B- F A+ F+ F+ F B- F F 36% 36% 27% A+ F A+ A- A+ D+ B+ A A-
1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15 1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16
Feb
7		 Central Arkansas D+ A- D A- B+ 22% 13% 65% D+ B C D- D+ C- A+ D A- F+ F C+ B- D- 25% 40% 36% A+ C- F D+ F C F+ D+ F+
1.07 70% 33% 40% +8 0 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 21% .38 68% .26 1.18 92% 33% 32% +5 -3 1.06 36% 1.1 .38 17% .35 71% .25
Feb
11		 Eastern Kentucky D+ C- B+ B- D+ 33% 8% 59% B+ C- C+ F F+ D+ F A+ D+ A- A- F B- C+ 33% 24% 43% D+ C D+ A+ A B A- A+ A+
1.15 59% 50% 37% +4 +1 1.12 34% 0.7 .23 17% .24 92% .22 0.93 47% 50% 32% -2 -1 0.96 34% 0.7 .24 20% .19 50% .10
Feb
14		 Queens F+ C+ A+ F D- 54% 7% 39% A D+ C+ F D F F+ F+ F B- F A F F 43% 14% 43% D+ F A+ F B A+ F A D
1.03 61% 50% 27% -1 +3 1.05 35% 0.8 .30 19% .28 67% .19 1.11 81% 29% 43% +14 +1 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 23% .40 67% .26
Feb
18		 Bellarmine C- A F A+ B 24% 6% 69% B B F F F D F A+ F+ C+ D A+ B B 44% 15% 41% C B F B D+ F A+ A+ A+
1.17 75% 0% 44% +12 +1 1.29 17% 0.8 .14 17% .19 90% .17 1.13 67% 25% 32% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 11% .19 64% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2.1 2.1 2nd
3rd 1.1 17.5 29.2 47.8 3rd
4th 1.8 17.2 27.3 3.8 50.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.8 18.3 44.9 35.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 35.1% 20.4% 20.4% 14.2 0.0 0.9 4.2 2.1 0.0 27.9
12-6 44.9% 16.2% 16.2% 14.9 0.1 1.7 4.5 1.0 37.6
11-7 18.3% 13.5% 13.5% 15.2 0.2 1.4 0.8 15.8
10-8 1.8% 10.0% 10.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 1.6
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 14.6 82.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.2% 100.0% 14.2 0.1 12.9 57.9 28.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.4%
Lose Out 0.8%