Cleveland St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#180
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#148
Pace62.9#316
Improvement+0.1#178

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#171
First Shot-1.6#240
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#69
Layup/Dunks+3.2#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#347
Freethrows-0.6#224
Improvement+0.7#66

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#186
First Shot+2.7#90
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#359
Layups/Dunks+1.4#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#112
Freethrows-0.6#237
Improvement-0.7#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 17.3% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 99.3% 100.0% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 33.6% 45.7% 22.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round15.5% 17.3% 13.8%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 414 - 218 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 56   @ Cincinnati L 58-69 13%     0 - 1 +1.0 -1.6 +1.2
  Nov 12, 2022 153   @ Ohio L 70-81 36%     0 - 2 -7.6 +2.9 -11.6
  Nov 16, 2022 281   @ Canisius W 58-57 OT 63%     1 - 2 -2.7 -16.1 +13.4
  Nov 18, 2022 331   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 67-58 88%     2 - 2 -3.8 -7.0 +3.4
  Nov 23, 2022 317   Chicago St. W 77-63 84%     3 - 2 +2.9 +7.7 -2.8
  Nov 26, 2022 285   @ Western Michigan W 71-49 63%     4 - 2 +18.1 +3.5 +17.9
  Dec 01, 2022 249   Oakland W 80-64 75%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +8.6 +5.7 +3.8
  Dec 03, 2022 222   Detroit Mercy W 92-77 70%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +9.4 +8.3 +0.6
  Dec 07, 2022 147   @ St. Bonaventure L 42-61 34%     6 - 3 -15.1 -21.7 +4.0
  Dec 10, 2022 73   Kent St. L 58-67 32%     6 - 4 -4.6 -6.1 +0.9
  Dec 18, 2022 91   @ Loyola Marymount L 59-70 21%     6 - 5 -2.8 -2.6 -1.5
  Dec 29, 2022 131   @ Youngstown St. L 71-85 31%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -9.1 +2.6 -13.1
  Dec 31, 2022 242   @ Robert Morris W 63-54 54%     7 - 6 3 - 1 +7.5 -5.5 +13.5
  Jan 05, 2023 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64-68 OT 67%     7 - 7 3 - 2 -9.0 -15.2 +6.5
  Jan 07, 2023 362   Green Bay W 82-77 96%     8 - 7 4 - 2 -15.0 +4.6 -19.3
  Jan 14, 2023 359   @ IUPUI W 89-54 88%     9 - 7 5 - 2 +22.0 +12.5 +10.8
  Jan 16, 2023 204   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 72-60 45%     10 - 7 6 - 2 +13.0 +7.3 +6.9
  Jan 19, 2023 210   @ Northern Kentucky L 56-57 46%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -0.3 -9.2 +8.8
  Jan 21, 2023 201   @ Wright St. W 85-77 44%     11 - 8 7 - 3 +9.1 +8.7 +0.1
  Jan 27, 2023 204   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-74 66%     12 - 8 8 - 3 +0.5 +13.0 -11.9
  Jan 29, 2023 359   IUPUI W 78-72 94%     13 - 8 9 - 3 -12.5 -2.7 -9.7
  Feb 02, 2023 222   @ Detroit Mercy L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 04, 2023 249   @ Oakland W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 10, 2023 242   Robert Morris W 69-62 74%    
  Feb 12, 2023 131   Youngstown St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 17, 2023 201   Wright St. W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 19, 2023 210   Northern Kentucky W 63-59 67%    
  Feb 23, 2023 362   @ Green Bay W 73-59 90%    
  Feb 25, 2023 214   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-71 46%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 4.8 14.6 11.2 2.8 33.6 1st
2nd 0.1 4.8 15.1 7.7 0.4 28.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 11.0 6.7 0.3 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.7 4.4 0.4 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 2.5 0.2 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.2 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.7 10.8 20.7 27.1 22.6 11.6 2.8 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 2.8    2.8
16-4 96.2% 11.2    8.4 2.7 0.1
15-5 64.3% 14.6    5.4 7.2 1.9 0.1
14-6 17.8% 4.8    0.4 1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.6% 33.6 17.0 11.9 4.0 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.8% 28.8% 28.8% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.0
16-4 11.6% 23.1% 23.1% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.0 8.9
15-5 22.6% 18.7% 18.7% 14.5 0.1 1.8 2.2 0.1 18.4
14-6 27.1% 15.1% 15.1% 14.8 0.0 1.2 2.5 0.4 23.0
13-7 20.7% 12.0% 12.0% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.6 18.2
12-8 10.8% 9.4% 9.4% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.5 9.8
11-9 3.7% 7.9% 7.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.4
10-10 0.6% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
9-11 0.0% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.1 7.9 1.8 84.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 28.8% 13.6 0.1 1.7 11.0 14.0 1.9
Lose Out 0.0% 13.6% 16.0 13.6