Dartmouth
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#319
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#242
Pace71.6#109
Improvement+1.2#101

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#326
First Shot-2.5#245
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#332
Layup/Dunks-6.4#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#148
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#94
Freethrows+0.8#132
Improvement+1.4#77

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#282
First Shot-5.6#340
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#39
Layups/Dunks-5.6#342
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
Freethrows-0.1#204
Improvement-0.1#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 4.5% 11.3% 2.8%
.500 or above in Conference 9.0% 13.2% 7.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 55.0% 45.3% 57.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 20.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 32 - 83 - 11
Quad 45 - 78 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 269   Sacred Heart W 81-76 50%     1 - 0 -4.0 -3.9 -0.5
  Nov 13, 2024 237   Albany L 73-87 43%     1 - 1 -21.1 -5.7 -15.1
  Nov 16, 2024 268   @ Boston University L 50-78 28%     1 - 2 -31.0 -21.2 -10.6
  Nov 19, 2024 242   @ Marist L 62-75 23%     1 - 3 -14.3 -10.7 -3.3
  Nov 29, 2024 145   @ Boston College W 88-83 12%     2 - 3 +8.9 +13.0 -4.4
  Dec 03, 2024 350   @ New Hampshire W 69-65 53%     3 - 3 -5.6 -4.7 -0.8
  Dec 08, 2024 217   @ Illinois-Chicago L 71-80 20%    
  Dec 11, 2024 80   @ Notre Dame L 60-79 4%    
  Dec 14, 2024 154   @ Umass Lowell L 70-82 13%    
  Dec 18, 2024 334   Le Moyne W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 21, 2024 183   Vermont L 62-67 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 279   Penn W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 108   Princeton L 69-79 19%    
  Jan 20, 2025 107   @ Yale L 67-83 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 164   @ Brown L 65-76 15%    
  Jan 31, 2025 149   @ Cornell L 72-85 13%    
  Feb 01, 2025 192   @ Columbia L 70-81 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 241   Harvard L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 14, 2025 192   Columbia L 73-78 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 149   Cornell L 75-82 28%    
  Feb 21, 2025 279   @ Penn L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 108   Princeton L 69-79 19%    
  Feb 28, 2025 107   Yale L 70-80 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 164   Brown L 68-73 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 241   @ Harvard L 66-74 25%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 4 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 2.6 0.7 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.4 2.8 4.4 1.3 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.1 6.9 2.1 0.1 15.2 6th
7th 0.3 3.5 9.7 9.1 2.9 0.2 25.6 7th
8th 4.5 11.2 13.9 8.8 2.3 0.1 40.9 8th
Total 4.5 11.5 17.4 19.6 16.9 12.8 8.4 4.9 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
11-3 73.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
10-4 40.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
9-5 13.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0
12-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.1% 19.7% 19.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-4 0.4% 17.3% 17.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-5 1.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
8-6 2.4% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3
7-7 4.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8
6-8 8.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.4
5-9 12.8% 12.8
4-10 16.9% 16.9
3-11 19.6% 19.6
2-12 17.4% 17.4
1-13 11.5% 11.5
0-14 4.5% 4.5
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%