Dartmouth
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#247
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#266
Pace75.2#45
Improvement+3.1#33

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#259
First Shot-1.0#197
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#319
Layup/Dunks-9.6#364
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#11
Freethrows+1.0#113
Improvement+0.5#135

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#222
First Shot-2.5#256
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#123
Layups/Dunks-8.9#364
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#25
Freethrows+1.2#101
Improvement+2.6#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 4.3% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.6 15.4
.500 or above 8.3% 28.9% 8.1%
.500 or above in Conference 28.4% 44.4% 28.2%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.4% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 29.3% 17.7% 29.4%
First Four0.6% 0.0% 0.6%
First Round2.0% 4.3% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 0.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 47 - 69 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 157 Marist L 56-75 42%     0 - 1 -21.8 -15.9 -5.1
  Wed, Nov 12 311 @Bryant L 75-82 53%     0 - 2 -12.8 -3.6 -8.7
  Sun, Nov 16 228 Appalachian St. L 77-85 58%     0 - 3 -15.1 +0.5 -15.3
  Sat, Nov 29 297 @St. Peter's W 87-61 47%     1 - 3 +21.7 +19.7 +3.7
  Wed, Dec 3 335 New Hampshire W 69-68 79%     2 - 3 -12.6 -7.0 -5.6
  Sat, Dec 6 103 @Wyoming L 80-93 12%     2 - 4 -5.3 +7.6 -12.4
  Tue, Dec 9 91 @Colorado St. L 55-76 10%     2 - 5 -11.9 -12.1 -2.1
  Sat, Dec 13 288 Boston University W 77-64 68%     3 - 5 +3.3 +0.2 +4.0
  Tue, Dec 16 326 @Holy Cross W 89-64 57%     4 - 5 +18.1 +15.7 +3.5
  Fri, Dec 19 250 @Sacred Heart L 63-85 39%     4 - 6 -24.1 -15.3 -7.7
  Mon, Dec 29 12 @Florida L 65-91 1%    
  Mon, Jan 5 192 @Harvard L 69-75 29%    
  Sat, Jan 10 159 @Cornell L 82-90 23%    
  Sat, Jan 17 240 Penn W 80-77 60%    
  Mon, Jan 19 248 Princeton W 74-71 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 142 Columbia L 75-78 38%    
  Fri, Jan 30 76 @Yale L 72-87 8%    
  Sat, Jan 31 226 @Brown L 68-72 36%    
  Sat, Feb 7 192 Harvard W 73-72 51%    
  Fri, Feb 13 76 Yale L 75-84 20%    
  Sat, Feb 14 226 Brown W 71-69 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 142 @Columbia L 72-81 20%    
  Fri, Feb 27 240 @Penn L 77-80 38%    
  Sat, Feb 28 248 @Princeton L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Mar 7 159 Cornell L 85-87 43%    
Projected Record 9 - 16 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.4 4.5 1.5 0.1 9.9 3rd
4th 0.3 4.2 6.7 1.7 0.1 13.0 4th
5th 0.3 4.6 8.2 2.4 0.1 15.6 5th
6th 0.4 4.6 9.2 2.8 0.1 17.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.0 8.6 3.3 0.2 18.0 7th
8th 0.6 2.7 6.1 6.4 2.7 0.2 18.6 8th
Total 0.6 2.7 7.0 11.8 16.2 17.6 15.8 12.8 8.0 4.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 91.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
11-3 57.7% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
10-4 31.7% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1
9-5 6.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.2% 30.0% 30.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-3 0.8% 15.9% 15.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
10-4 2.0% 13.0% 13.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.8
9-5 4.4% 10.7% 10.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 3.9
8-6 8.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 7.3
7-7 12.8% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 12.3
6-8 15.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.6
5-9 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.6
4-10 16.2% 16.2
3-11 11.8% 11.8
2-12 7.0% 7.0
1-13 2.7% 2.7
0-14 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%