Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.7 263
Expected Predictive Rating -4.7 242
Pace 71.0 115
Improvement +5.2 20

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 213 D+ C- C+ C- F
Defense D+ 296 C- D+ D- D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 351 D+ 55% 269 +16.4 351
2 Pt. Jumpers 61% 12 C 39% 146 +14.2 4
Three Pointers 34% 324 C 34% 169 +17.3 305
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.6 362 C -0.6 194
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 280
Second Chance C+ 32.5% 122 D 0.92 321 C- 0.30 208
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 133
Freethrows D 0.27 293 B 76% 52 C- 0.20 246
Total Offense C- -1.7 213

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 138 C- 59% 207 +23.7 136
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 329 C+ 36% 121 +5.7 336
Three Pointers 44% 76 C 34% 181 +22.7 97
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 310 C +0.1 183
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 208
Second Chance D+ 32.4% 267 D+ 1.08 262 D+ 0.35 279
Turnovers D- 13.8% 336
Freethrows D 0.35 316 C- 73% 229 D 0.26 313
Total Defense D+ -4.0 296

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 179 16.5 41
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 137 0.21 298
Improvement +2.7 #55 +2.5 #52

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 5% 8% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 70% 90% 52%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 3% 2%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 73 - 11
Quad 49 - 612 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 127 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 91 16% -6  40% 0 - 1 F+ -15 F+ -9 F F B- D+ -4 D+ F B
 Fri, Nov 7 82 @Notre Dame L 70 - 102 8% -17  7% 0 - 2 F -22 D- -7 C+ F+ D+ F -13 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 172 @Toledo L 83 - 90 22% -4  3% 0 - 3 C- -5 C- -1 D D+ B D+ -4 D- C- B
 Tue, Nov 18 247 Eastern Michigan L 62 - 72 58% +1  48% 0 - 4 F -18 F -15 F C+ D+ C- -3 D+ C- C+
 Fri, Nov 21 15 @Michigan St. L 56 - 84 1% -16  0% 0 - 5 D+ -6 D -6 C+ C F C -1 B+ F C
 Sun, Nov 23 96 @DePaul L 75 - 95 10% -9  28% 0 - 6 D- -12 B+ +9 B C B- F -22 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 335 @Niagara W 70 - 66 62% +6  94% 1 - 6 C- -5 D+ -4 F C+ B- C -1 C C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 329 IU Indianapolis W 92 - 78 78% +10  85% 2 - 6 1 - 0 C +0 B +7 F A+ A+ D -6 C D+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 305 @Cleveland St. W 71 - 59 49% +4  68% 3 - 6 2 - 0 B- +6 D+ -4 F+ F A+ A +12 A+ D B-
 Sun, Dec 14 253 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 81 37% -2  28% 3 - 7 2 - 1 D+ -6 C+ +2 F+ C- A+ D- -8 D C- F
 Mon, Dec 29 200 @Youngstown St. W 73 - 68 27% +7  71% 4 - 7 3 - 1 B- +6 C- -2 C+ F D+ B+ +7 A B+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 197 Robert Morris L 77 - 85 48% -0  53% 4 - 8 3 - 2 D- -13 C +0 B B F F -13 C+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 157 Wright St. L 82 - 84 40% -6  20% 4 - 9 3 - 3 D+ -5 C+ +3 D A+ B+ D- -8 D- B C+
 Sun, Jan 11 305 Cleveland St. W 94 - 84 71% +11  96% 5 - 9 4 - 3 C -2 C +2 C- B F D+ -4 F+ A C
 Thu, Jan 15 204 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 96 28% -12  0% 5 - 10 4 - 4 F -25 F+ -9 F B- A+ F -14 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 329 @IU Indianapolis W 80 - 77 58% -1  44% 6 - 10 5 - 4 C- -5 D- -6 F F C+ C+ +2 B- F C+
 Wed, Jan 21 253 Purdue Fort Wayne L 76 - 83 59% -2  34% 6 - 11 5 - 5 F+ -15 D -6 F+ F+ B+ D- -9 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 147 Oakland L 87 - 95 37% -4  7% 6 - 12 5 - 6 D -10 B+ +8 A C- C- F -18 F D+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 204 Northern Kentucky W 90 - 77 50% +9  84% 7 - 12 6 - 6 B- +7 A- +11 A+ A- D+ D+ -4 B- B+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 271 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 63 40% +8  98% 8 - 12 7 - 6 B +10 B +6 B B C- B +6 B- B+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 234 @Green Bay L 63 - 76 33% -9  0% 8 - 13 7 - 7 D- -14 F -13 F F+ F C -2 A F F+
 Thu, Feb 12 157 @Wright St. W 77 - 74 20% +0  42% 9 - 13 8 - 7 B- +6 B +6 B+ C B C -0 B B F
 Sun, Feb 15 200 Youngstown St. L 76 - 77 49%
 Fri, Feb 20 271 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 77 62%
 Sun, Feb 22 234 Green Bay W 76 - 75 55%
 Wed, Feb 25 197 @Robert Morris L 71 - 78 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 147 @Oakland L 79 - 88 18%
Totals 11 - 16 10 - 10 -6 F -2 A+ C F C- -4 C B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C C C 30% 61% 34% F D+ C+ D C- C+ D B C- D+ C- C+ C C 40% 15% 44% D C- D+ D+ D+ D- D C- D
1.06 55% 39% 34% -1 -3 0.95 33% 0.9 .30 16% .27 76% .20 1.14 59% 36% 34% 0 +1 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 14% .35 73% .20
Nov
3		 Illinois-Chicago F+ C B F F+ 15% 25% 59% F F B- F F B- C C C D+ A B F D+ 35% 18% 47% C- D+ B F F B F F F
0.90 56% 40% 23% -10 -2 0.78 39% 0.6 .22 19% .31 75% .23 1.15 44% 33% 42% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.5 .50 20% .57 83% .47
Nov
7		 Notre Dame D- F A+ D+ B- 25% 33% 43% F+ C+ D F F+ D+ F F F F C+ A F D+ 38% 12% 50% F D B- F F F C D+ C-
0.92 47% 55% 31% +1 -3 0.98 20% 0.6 .12 17% .16 50% .08 1.34 59% 29% 45% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.8 .56 9% .32 73% .23
Nov
15		 Toledo C- D+ B- C- D 43% 21% 36% C- D C D D+ B C+ F+ C D+ F F B+ D- 40% 17% 43% F+ D- D B- C- B F A- F
1.09 56% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 35% 0.9 .30 16% .26 65% .17 1.18 71% 67% 30% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 18% .48 70% .34
Nov
18		 Eastern Michigan F F+ B- F F 24% 48% 28% F F C B- C+ D+ C A+ A- C- D B+ C- D+ 41% 22% 37% D D+ D+ B- C- C+ F A+ F
0.89 46% 42% 0% -15 -5 0.63 30% 1.1 .33 17% .31 94% .29 1.03 63% 30% 35% +1 0 1.04 30% 0.9 .27 19% .44 60% .26
Nov
21		 Michigan St. D D- A+ D- B 26% 38% 36% F C+ A F C F F A+ F+ C C F+ A B+ 31% 25% 43% B- B+ D F F C F C- F
0.82 46% 47% 28% -3 -3 0.90 30% 0.5 .14 22% .15 88% .13 1.22 63% 46% 27% -1 -1 0.98 44% 1.4 .61 17% .46 77% .35
Nov
23		 DePaul B+ C+ B- A+ B+ 42% 35% 23% D+ B A F C B- B- A+ A F C- A+ F F 36% 18% 46% C- F F F F F F F F
1.12 55% 41% 45% +4 -2 1.06 38% 0.7 .26 18% .34 84% .29 1.41 61% 22% 52% +11 0 1.24 41% 1.4 .59 10% .43 81% .35
Nov
29		 Niagara D+ D C+ F F 33% 31% 36% F+ F B C- C+ B- A+ C- A+ C F F A+ C- 36% 13% 51% C+ C A+ F C- F D+ A- C
1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41 1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16
Dec
3		 IU Indianapolis B D- F A+ F 45% 25% 30% D- F B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+ D D+ C- B C 32% 17% 51% D+ C F+ B- D+ D C- A+ C+
1.29 54% 15% 44% -3 0 0.96 41% 1.7 .71 13% .39 88% .34 1.10 63% 40% 30% -1 0 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 14% .20 58% .11
Dec
6		 Cleveland St. D+ A+ D F+ D+ 24% 49% 27% F F+ F+ D- F A+ B D C+ A A+ A+ C- A+ 37% 15% 48% D+ A+ F A+ D B- D- A- D+
1.12 83% 36% 29% +3 -5 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 9% .33 74% .24 0.93 41% 0% 36% -10 +1 0.83 43% 0.8 .33 21% .40 70% .28
Dec
14		 Purdue Fort Wayne C+ F D A+ D 33% 33% 33% F F+ C+ D+ C- A+ D+ A+ C D- C F B- C- 45% 8% 47% F D B- F C- F F A+ D-
1.13 42% 32% 47% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 13% .24 86% .20 1.19 58% 75% 32% +2 +2 1.09 19% 1.3 .25 3% .41 52% .21
Dec
29		 Youngstown St. C- D B+ A+ B+ 24% 42% 33% F C+ C+ F F D+ A D+ A- B+ C A+ A- A+ 22% 13% 65% B A D+ A+ B+ F D- C+ D
1.05 55% 42% 47% +7 -4 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 20% .45 72% .32 0.98 58% 14% 29% -8 0 0.85 33% 0.7 .24 11% .32 70% .23
Jan
2		 Robert Morris C D B- A+ A- 41% 37% 22% F B B- B B F A C+ A F C+ A+ C- B 51% 13% 36% F C+ F D- F C+ F F F
1.13 53% 41% 60% +7 -2 1.13 32% 1.1 .35 21% .48 77% .37 1.24 54% 17% 35% -4 +2 0.98 48% 1.2 .58 19% .58 88% .51
Jan
9		 Wright St. C+ B+ C F C- 34% 42% 25% F D A- A- A+ B+ A+ B- A+ D- C- A- F D- 47% 20% 33% D+ D- A- C- B C+ F F F
1.16 67% 41% 23% 0 -3 0.96 40% 1.2 .49 14% .51 74% .38 1.19 61% 30% 44% +4 +1 1.12 25% 1.1 .29 17% .48 82% .39
Jan
11		 Cleveland St. C B+ F A+ C+ 32% 32% 36% F C- A+ D- B F A+ A- A+ D+ D A+ F F 34% 9% 57% D- F+ B+ A+ A C D- A+ C+
1.24 71% 24% 47% +7 -2 1.11 51% 0.9 .46 21% .52 84% .44 1.11 61% 0% 47% +8 +1 1.21 22% 0.8 .16 19% .39 63% .24
Jan
15		 Northern Kentucky F+ F D- F F 24% 34% 42% F F D+ A B- A+ F F F F D+ F F F 51% 9% 40% F F A- F C- F F D+ F
0.95 47% 33% 27% -9 -3 0.79 31% 1.3 .42 9% .13 33% .04 1.28 63% 60% 43% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.4 .33 12% .47 74% .35
Jan
17		 IU Indianapolis D- C- F D- F 44% 24% 32% D- F C F F C+ A A+ A+ C+ D+ F A+ B+ 42% 11% 47% F B- F+ F+ F C+ C+ C+ C+
1.07 59% 25% 31% -4 0 0.94 36% 0.8 .31 19% .49 87% .43 1.03 63% 50% 22% -5 +2 0.95 34% 1.2 .42 17% .16 70% .11
Jan
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne D C+ D- B+ D+ 28% 40% 32% F F+ D- F+ F+ B+ B- D C+ D- A- A+ F D+ 35% 15% 50% C D+ C- B+ C+ F F C+ F
1.06 63% 30% 39% +1 -3 0.96 28% 0.9 .26 17% .30 72% .22 1.15 47% 25% 44% +2 +1 1.07 23% 0.9 .20 8% .36 71% .26
Jan
24		 Oakland B+ A- A+ A A+ 18% 34% 48% F A B F+ C- C- F A+ D F F+ F B- F+ 53% 11% 36% F F D C D+ F F+ F F
1.26 70% 63% 41% +16 -3 1.27 39% 0.8 .30 16% .14 100% .14 1.38 68% 50% 32% +5 +2 1.17 34% 1.1 .38 7% .41 85% .34
Jan
30		 Northern Kentucky A- C C+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 43% F+ A+ B B+ A- D+ A+ D- A+ D+ C- F A B 32% 7% 61% D+ B- D+ A+ B+ F F A F
1.28 57% 42% 60% +18 -1 1.35 38% 1.3 .48 21% .50 64% .32 1.09 61% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.93 32% 0.7 .23 11% .43 63% .27
Feb
4		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B A- D A+ A- 43% 33% 24% F B C A B C- D+ A C B F+ F A+ B- 35% 25% 40% C B- B+ B- B+ C+ C- F+ D+
1.19 70% 33% 45% +8 -1 1.15 31% 1.4 .42 17% .30 81% .25 0.99 65% 50% 16% -5 -1 0.90 26% 1.0 .26 16% .28 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Green Bay F F D A D 20% 39% 41% F F C F F+ F C- A+ B- C A+ A C- A+ 50% 15% 35% D- A F D+ F F+ D+ F F
0.95 33% 33% 42% -2 -4 0.91 30% 0.8 .24 20% .32 82% .26 1.14 42% 29% 35% -9 +2 0.88 37% 1.2 .43 12% .39 87% .34
Feb
12		 Wright St. B B A+ B A+ 33% 46% 21% F B+ B- D- C B F A+ F C B- F A+ B+ 44% 19% 37% D+ B C- A B F C F+ D+
1.16 65% 54% 36% +10 -4 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 15% .16 89% .14 1.12 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .30 11% .32 79% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 0.8 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.4 7.0 0.2 12.7 3rd
4th 1.8 11.8 0.9 14.5 4th
5th 0.2 10.5 6.5 0.0 17.3 5th
6th 3.9 16.5 1.4 21.7 6th
7th 0.6 12.1 5.6 0.1 18.3 7th
8th 4.0 6.2 0.2 10.3 8th
9th 2.3 0.2 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 7.0 22.6 34.6 25.1 9.4 1.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 15.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.3% 9.4% 9.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
12-8 9.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.4 0.5 0.3 8.7
11-9 25.1% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.1 1.6 23.4
10-10 34.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 1.0 33.6
9-11 22.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 22.2
8-12 7.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.9
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.8 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 4.0%