Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.5 #277
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #240
Pace 68.9 #195
Improvement +4.5 #6

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #255 D- C D+ B F
Defense #284 C- C+ D F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #336 1.07 #279 -5.8 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% #7 0.82 #105 +7.1 #6
Three Pointers 33% #328 0.86 #320 -6.6 #340
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #318 -5.3 #318
Freethrows 15.1 #292 80% #12 12.0 #213
Second Chance 31.8% #145 0.89 #326 0.28 #251
Turnovers 15.0% #88
Total Offense -3.1 #255

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #272 1.21 #249 +1.1 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #309 0.72 #156 +1.9 #64
Three Pointers 49% #26 1.04 #215 -4.5 #330
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #227 -1.6 #226
Freethrows 17.7 #212 67% #28 11.8 #146
Second Chance 31.6% #217 1.17 #308 0.37 #287
Turnovers 13.1% #344
Total Defense -3.4 #284

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.1% #361 0.6% #232
Shot Type Make % Effect -5.6% #261 2.5% #218
Possession Length 17.3 #181 16.3 #46
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #229 0.21 #289
Improvement +1.8 #54 +2.7 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.4% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 12.6% 19.7% 6.6%
.500 or above in Conference 48.4% 62.7% 36.5%
Conference Champion 2.6% 4.4% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.1%
First Round2.2% 2.9% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 83 - 11
Quad 49 - 611 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 199 @Illinois-Chicago L 71-91 25%     -5.6   0 - 1 -19.5 -9.9 -7.2
  Fri, Nov 7 61 @Notre Dame L 70-102 5%     -16.8   0 - 2 -20.0 -1.0 -16.5
  Sat, Nov 15 177 @Toledo L 83-90 21%     -3.8   0 - 3 -5.1 +1.6 -6.1
  Tue, Nov 18 208 Eastern Michigan L 62-72 49%     1.3   0 - 4 -16.1 -12.5 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 21 17 @Michigan St. L 56-84 2%     -16.1   0 - 5 -7.8 -3.8 -4.5
  Sun, Nov 23 107 @DePaul L 75-95 10%     -6.0   0 - 6 -12.7 +11.2 -24.8
  Sat, Nov 29 352 @Niagara W 70-66 64%     5.7   1 - 6 -6.3 -1.7 -4.4
  Wed, Dec 3 354 IU Indianapolis W 92-78 83%     9.7   2 - 6 1 - 0 -2.7 +7.7 -10.6
  Sat, Dec 6 325 @Cleveland St. W 71-59 52%     4.5   3 - 6 2 - 0 +5.1 -0.9 +7.3
  Sun, Dec 14 248 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-81 33%     -1.6   3 - 7 2 - 1 -5.9 +4.7 -10.7
  Mon, Dec 29 184 @Youngstown St. W 73-68 22%     7.2   4 - 7 3 - 1 +6.5 +2.4 +4.1
  Fri, Jan 2 196 Robert Morris L 72-73 45%    
  Fri, Jan 9 138 Wright St. L 70-75 32%    
  Sun, Jan 11 325 Cleveland St. W 81-75 73%    
  Thu, Jan 15 209 @Northern Kentucky L 72-78 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 354 @IU Indianapolis W 87-83 66%    
  Wed, Jan 21 248 Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-75 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 141 Oakland L 79-83 35%    
  Fri, Jan 30 209 Northern Kentucky L 74-75 48%    
  Wed, Feb 4 197 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72-79 25%    
  Sat, Feb 7 256 @Green Bay L 70-74 36%    
  Thu, Feb 12 138 @Wright St. L 67-78 17%    
  Sun, Feb 15 184 Youngstown St. L 71-73 43%    
  Fri, Feb 20 197 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75-76 45%    
  Sun, Feb 22 256 Green Bay W 73-71 57%    
  Wed, Feb 25 196 @Robert Morris L 69-76 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 141 @Oakland L 76-86 18%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.6 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.8 0.5 0.1 6.6 3rd
4th 0.6 3.8 4.2 1.1 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.4 3.4 5.3 1.4 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.1 2.6 0.1 14.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 7.0 4.1 0.4 15.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 3.2 7.3 4.5 0.7 0.0 16.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.4 4.2 6.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.8 6.4 10.3 14.9 16.2 15.8 12.6 9.1 6.1 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 90.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 61.8% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 31.2% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 0.1 0.1
16-4 0.4% 17.5% 17.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 1.4% 11.1% 11.1% 14.6 0.1 0.1 1.3
14-6 2.8% 8.7% 8.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.5
13-7 6.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 5.6
12-8 9.1% 5.0% 5.0% 15.5 0.2 0.2 8.6
11-9 12.6% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5 12.2
10-10 15.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.4 15.4
9-11 16.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 16.0
8-12 14.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.8
7-13 10.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.3
6-14 6.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.4
5-15 2.8% 2.8
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.5 0.2 0.8 1.6 97.4 0.0%