Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -5.0 254
Results Rating -3.4 228
Consistency 0.13 58
Pace 71.5 99
Improvement +6.6 9

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 211 D+ C- C+ C- F
Defense D+ 281 C- D+ D D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 339 D+ 54% 283 -5.6 346
2 Pt. Jumpers 60% 12 C 39% 145 +6.0 5
Three Pointers 33% 329 C+ 35% 139 -3.5 301
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.4 361 C -0.6 195
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 276
Second Chance C+ 32.2% 131 D 0.91 328 C- 0.29 216
Turnovers from Steals B- 8.6% 100
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 198
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 129
Freethrows D+ 0.27 281 B+ 77% 23 C- 0.21 211
Total Offense C- -1.5 211

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 242 C- 12.1% 256
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 117 B- 3.9% 95
Three Pointers B- 88% 110 C 0.9% 187
Total D+ 52% 267 C 5.5% 174

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 109 C- 59% 206 +2.1 250
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 337 C+ 37% 113 -2.3 25
Three Pointers 43% 105 C 34% 179 +1.1 240
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 334 C +0.1 177
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 213
Second Chance C- 31.9% 250 D+ 1.10 276 D+ 0.35 283
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.2% 270
Other Turnovers D- 6.0% 338
Turnovers D 14.2% 326
Freethrows D 0.34 299 C- 73% 219 D 0.25 297
Total Defense D+ -3.5 281

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 278 D+ 8.4% 279
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 245 C 5.1% 158
Three Pointers D 89% 329 B- 1.4% 79
Total D 62% 313 C- 4.8% 235

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 183 16.5 47
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 130 0.20 293
Consistency 0.10 33 0.12 126
Improvement +3.0 59 +3.7 29

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 272 250 220
Results Rating Rank 255 225 191
Conference Record 11 - 9 11 - 9 13 - 7
Conference Finish 6 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 9% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 16% 40% 8%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 1% 6% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 1% 3%
First Round5% 8% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 23.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 410 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 107 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 91 13% -6  40% 0 - 1 D- -13 D- -8 F F+ B- C- -3 C- F B
 Fri, Nov 7 90 @Notre Dame L 70 - 102 10% -17  7% 0 - 2 F -23 D- -7 C+ F+ D+ F -13 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 161 @Toledo L 83 - 90 23% -4  3% 0 - 3 C- -4 C- -1 D D+ B C- -3 D- C- B+
 Tue, Nov 18 249 Eastern Michigan L 62 - 72 61% +1  48% 0 - 4 F -18 F -14 F C+ D+ D+ -4 D C C+
 Fri, Nov 21 10 @Michigan St. L 56 - 84 1% -16  0% 0 - 5 D+ -6 D -5 C+ C F C -1 B+ F C
 Sun, Nov 23 94 @DePaul L 75 - 95 10% -9  28% 0 - 6 D -11 A- +10 B C B F -22 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 340 @Niagara W 70 - 66 65% +6  94% 1 - 6 D+ -5 D+ -4 F C+ B- C -1 C D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 323 IU Indianapolis W 92 - 78 79% +10  85% 2 - 6 1 - 0 C +1 B +7 F A+ A+ D- -7 C D D
 Sat, Dec 6 315 @Cleveland St. W 71 - 59 56% +4  68% 3 - 6 2 - 0 B- +5 D -6 F F A+ A+ +12 A+ D- B
 Sun, Dec 14 258 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 81 40% -2  28% 3 - 7 2 - 1 D+ -6 C+ +2 F+ C A+ F+ -9 D+ D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 193 @Youngstown St. W 73 - 68 28% +7  71% 4 - 7 3 - 1 B- +6 C- -1 C+ F D+ A- +7 A+ B+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 168 Robert Morris L 77 - 85 44% -0  53% 4 - 8 3 - 2 D- -12 C +1 B B F F -13 B- F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 163 Wright St. L 82 - 84 44% -6  20% 4 - 9 3 - 3 D+ -5 C+ +3 D A+ B+ F+ -8 D B C
 Sun, Jan 11 315 Cleveland St. W 94 - 84 76% +11  96% 5 - 9 4 - 3 C- -3 C -0 D+ B F D+ -3 F+ A- C+
 Thu, Jan 15 198 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 96 29% -12  0% 5 - 10 4 - 4 F -24 D- -8 F B- A+ F -15 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 323 @IU Indianapolis W 80 - 77 59% -1  44% 6 - 10 5 - 4 C- -4 D -6 F F C+ C+ +1 B- F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 258 Purdue Fort Wayne L 76 - 83 63% -2  34% 6 - 11 5 - 5 F+ -15 D -6 F+ F+ B+ F+ -9 C- C F
 Sat, Jan 24 170 Oakland L 87 - 95 44% -4  7% 6 - 12 5 - 6 D- -12 B +7 A D+ C F -19 F D+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 198 Northern Kentucky W 90 - 77 51% +9  84% 7 - 12 6 - 6 B- +8 A +12 A+ A- D+ D+ -4 B- B+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 274 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 63 44% +8  98% 8 - 12 7 - 6 B +10 B- +5 B- B C- B+ +6 B- A- C
 Sat, Feb 7 228 @Green Bay L 63 - 76 34% -9  0% 8 - 13 7 - 7 D- -14 F -13 F+ F+ F C- -2 A F F+
 Thu, Feb 12 163 @Wright St. W 77 - 74 23% +0  42% 9 - 13 8 - 7 B- +6 B +6 B C B- C -0 B B- F
 Sun, Feb 15 193 Youngstown St. W 76 - 70 50% +8  97% 10 - 13 9 - 7 C +1 D+ -3 D- D- A+ B +4 B A D
 Fri, Feb 20 274 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 91 - 86 66% +2  67% 11 - 13 10 - 7 C- -4 B+ +9 A D B F -14 F F C
 Sun, Feb 22 228 Green Bay W 74 - 70 57% +1  59% 12 - 13 11 - 7 C- -3 D- -7 D F+ F+ B +4 C- A B
 Wed, Feb 25 168 @Robert Morris L 71 - 78 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 170 @Oakland L 80 - 87 24%
Totals 12 - 15 11 - 9 -5 C- -1 F+ C F D+ -4 C+ B+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C C+ C 31% 60% 33% F D+ C+ D C- C+ D+ B+ C- D+ C- C+ C C 41% 15% 43% D C- C- D+ D+ D D C- D
1.07 54% 39% 35% -1 -2 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 16% .27 77% .21 1.14 59% 37% 34% 0 +1 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 14% .34 73% .20
Nov
3		 Illinois-Chicago D- C B F F+ 15% 25% 59% F F B F F+ B- C+ C+ C+ C- A B F C- 35% 18% 47% C- C- B F F B F F F
0.90 56% 40% 23% -10 -2 0.78 39% 0.6 .22 19% .31 75% .23 1.15 44% 33% 42% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.5 .50 20% .57 83% .47
Nov
7		 Notre Dame D- F A+ D+ B- 25% 33% 43% F+ C+ D F F+ D+ F F F F B- A F D+ 38% 12% 50% F D B- F F F C D C-
0.92 47% 55% 31% +1 -3 0.98 20% 0.6 .12 17% .16 50% .08 1.34 59% 29% 45% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.8 .56 9% .32 73% .23
Nov
15		 Toledo C- D+ B- C- D 43% 21% 36% C- D C D- D+ B C+ F C C- F F B+ D- 40% 17% 43% F+ D- D- B- C- B+ F B+ F
1.09 56% 42% 33% -1 0 1.02 35% 0.9 .30 16% .26 65% .17 1.18 71% 67% 30% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 18% .48 70% .34
Nov
18		 Eastern Michigan F F B- F F 24% 48% 28% F F C B- C+ D+ C A+ A D+ D B+ C- D+ 41% 22% 37% D- D D B C C+ F A+ F
0.89 46% 42% 0% -15 -5 0.63 30% 1.1 .33 17% .31 94% .29 1.03 63% 30% 35% +1 0 1.04 30% 0.9 .27 19% .44 60% .26
Nov
21		 Michigan St. D D- A+ D- B 26% 38% 36% F C+ A F C F F A+ D- C C- F+ A+ A- 31% 25% 43% C+ B+ D F F C F C- F
0.82 46% 47% 28% -3 -3 0.90 30% 0.5 .14 22% .15 88% .13 1.22 63% 46% 27% -1 -1 0.98 44% 1.4 .61 17% .46 77% .35
Nov
23		 DePaul A- C B- A+ B+ 42% 35% 23% D B A F C B B- A+ A F C- A+ F F 36% 18% 46% C- F F F F F F F F
1.12 55% 41% 45% +4 -2 1.06 38% 0.7 .26 18% .34 84% .29 1.41 61% 22% 52% +11 0 1.24 41% 1.4 .59 10% .43 81% .35
Nov
29		 Niagara D+ D- B- F F 33% 31% 36% F+ F B- D+ C+ B- A+ C- A+ C F F A+ C 36% 13% 51% C C A+ F D+ F C- A C+
1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41 1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16
Dec
3		 IU Indianapolis B D- F A+ F 45% 25% 30% D- F B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+ D- D+ C- B C 32% 17% 51% D C F+ B- D D C- A+ C+
1.29 54% 15% 44% -3 0 0.96 41% 1.7 .71 13% .39 88% .34 1.10 63% 40% 30% -1 0 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 14% .20 58% .11
Dec
6		 Cleveland St. D A+ D F D 24% 49% 27% F F F+ F+ F A+ B- D+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 37% 15% 48% D+ A+ F A+ D- B F+ B+ D
1.12 83% 36% 29% +3 -5 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 9% .33 74% .24 0.93 41% 0% 36% -10 +1 0.83 43% 0.8 .33 21% .40 70% .28
Dec
14		 Purdue Fort Wayne C+ F D A+ D- 33% 33% 33% F F+ C+ D+ C A+ D A+ C F+ C F B- C- 45% 8% 47% F D+ C+ F D+ F F A+ D
1.13 42% 32% 47% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 13% .24 86% .20 1.19 58% 75% 32% +1 +2 1.09 19% 1.3 .25 3% .41 52% .21
Dec
29		 Youngstown St. C- D B+ A+ B+ 24% 42% 33% F C+ C+ F F D+ A+ D+ A A- C+ A+ A- A+ 22% 13% 65% B A+ D A+ B+ F D- C+ D
1.05 55% 42% 47% +7 -4 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 20% .45 72% .32 0.98 58% 14% 29% -8 0 0.85 33% 0.7 .24 11% .32 70% .23
Jan
2		 Robert Morris C D B- A+ A 41% 37% 22% F B B- B+ B F A+ C+ A+ F C+ A+ C- B+ 51% 13% 36% F B- F D F C+ F F F
1.13 53% 41% 60% +7 -2 1.13 32% 1.1 .35 21% .48 77% .37 1.24 54% 17% 35% -4 +2 0.98 48% 1.2 .58 19% .58 88% .51
Jan
9		 Wright St. C+ B+ C F C- 34% 42% 25% F D A A- A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ F+ C- A- F D 47% 20% 33% D+ D A- D B C F F F
1.16 67% 41% 23% 0 -3 0.96 40% 1.2 .49 14% .51 74% .38 1.19 61% 30% 44% +4 +1 1.12 25% 1.1 .29 17% .48 82% .39
Jan
11		 Cleveland St. C B+ F A+ C 32% 32% 36% F D+ A+ F+ B F A+ A A+ D+ D+ A+ F F+ 34% 9% 57% D- F+ B A+ A- C+ F+ A+ C
1.24 71% 24% 47% +7 -2 1.11 51% 0.9 .46 21% .52 84% .44 1.11 61% 0% 47% +8 +1 1.21 22% 0.8 .16 19% .39 63% .24
Jan
15		 Northern Kentucky D- F D- F F 24% 34% 42% F F C- A B- A+ F F F F D+ F F F 51% 9% 40% F F A F C- F F D F
0.95 47% 33% 27% -9 -3 0.79 31% 1.3 .42 9% .13 33% .04 1.28 63% 60% 43% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.4 .33 12% .47 74% .35
Jan
17		 IU Indianapolis D C- F D- F 44% 24% 32% D- F C F F C+ A A+ A+ C+ D+ F A+ B+ 42% 11% 47% F B- F+ F F B- C+ C+ C+
1.07 59% 25% 31% -4 0 0.94 36% 0.8 .31 19% .49 87% .43 1.03 63% 50% 22% -5 +2 0.95 34% 1.2 .42 17% .16 70% .11
Jan
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne D C+ D- B+ D 28% 40% 32% F F+ D- D- F+ B+ B- D+ C+ F+ A A+ F D+ 35% 15% 50% C C- C- B C F F C- F
1.06 63% 30% 39% 0 -3 0.96 28% 0.9 .26 17% .30 72% .22 1.15 47% 25% 44% +2 +1 1.07 23% 0.9 .20 8% .36 71% .26
Jan
24		 Oakland B A- A+ A A+ 18% 34% 48% F A B F D+ C F A+ D F F F B- F 53% 11% 36% F F D C D+ F F F F
1.26 70% 63% 41% +16 -3 1.27 39% 0.8 .30 16% .14 100% .14 1.38 68% 50% 32% +5 +2 1.17 34% 1.1 .38 7% .41 85% .34
Jan
30		 Northern Kentucky A C C+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 43% F+ A+ B A- A- D+ A+ D- A+ D+ D+ F A B 32% 7% 61% D+ B- C- A+ B+ F F A F
1.28 57% 42% 60% +18 -1 1.35 38% 1.3 .48 21% .50 64% .32 1.09 61% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.93 32% 0.7 .23 11% .43 63% .27
Feb
4		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B- A D- A+ B+ 43% 33% 24% F B- C A B C- D+ A C B+ F+ F A+ B- 35% 25% 40% C+ B- B+ B A- C C- D- D+
1.19 70% 33% 45% +8 -1 1.15 31% 1.4 .42 17% .30 81% .25 0.99 65% 50% 16% -5 -1 0.90 26% 1.0 .26 16% .28 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Green Bay F F D+ A+ D 20% 39% 41% F F+ C- F F+ F D+ A C C- A+ A C- A+ 50% 15% 35% D- A F D+ F F+ D F F
0.95 33% 33% 42% -2 -4 0.91 30% 0.8 .24 20% .32 82% .26 1.14 42% 29% 35% -9 +2 0.88 37% 1.2 .43 12% .39 87% .34
Feb
12		 Wright St. B B A+ B A 33% 46% 21% F B B D- C B- F A+ F C B- F A+ B+ 44% 19% 37% D+ B C- B+ B- F C D- D+
1.16 65% 54% 36% +10 -4 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 15% .16 89% .14 1.12 54% 50% 25% -5 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .30 11% .32 79% .25
Feb
15		 Youngstown St. D+ D F+ A D 44% 33% 22% D- D- D- D D- A+ C B C+ B C- D+ A+ A- 54% 9% 37% F B A+ D- A D C B- C+
1.06 54% 28% 42% -3 -1 0.94 25% 0.9 .22 10% .34 77% .26 0.98 62% 40% 20% -5 +3 0.96 17% 1.2 .20 17% .27 69% .18
Feb
20		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B+ D+ A+ A+ A 40% 20% 40% D+ A C+ F D B A+ A A+ F D+ F D F 50% 9% 41% F F F+ F F C D- A+ B
1.30 55% 70% 45% +12 0 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 14% .43 81% .35 1.23 59% 60% 36% +4 +2 1.15 38% 1.5 .57 16% .32 47% .15
Feb
22		 Green Bay D- C+ F B+ D+ 42% 32% 26% D D D+ F F+ F+ B A+ A+ B C A+ F C- 46% 18% 36% C- C- A A+ A B B- F D+
1.07 62% 25% 38% -1 -1 0.98 28% 0.9 .25 17% .39 95% .37 1.01 57% 22% 44% +2 +1 1.08 17% 0.8 .13 19% .32 89% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1.3 1.3 1st
2nd 6.5 4.7 11.3 2nd
3rd 29.5 29.5 3rd
4th 20.2 20.2 4th
5th 29.7 29.7 5th
6th 8.0 8.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 57.9 36.1 6.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 21.8% 1.3    1.3
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 1.3% 1.3 1.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 6.1% 11.4% 11.4% 15.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 5.4
12-8 36.1% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5 1.2 1.4 33.5
11-9 57.9% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.1 2.9 54.9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.7 93.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 15.0 8.7 85.5 5.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%
Lose Out 30.1%