Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#298
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#202
Pace67.6#222
Improvement+2.5#34

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#279
First Shot-5.7#325
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#81
Layup/Dunks-4.1#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#275
Freethrows-0.9#237
Improvement+1.7#57

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#290
First Shot-4.8#325
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#83
Layups/Dunks-1.6#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#345
Freethrows-0.7#237
Improvement+0.8#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.5% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 11.5% 20.1% 7.8%
.500 or above in Conference 33.1% 50.3% 25.9%
Conference Champion 1.4% 3.2% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 9.6% 4.3% 11.9%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round1.4% 2.2% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 29.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 410 - 812 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 86   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-87 7%     0 - 1 -12.7 -3.1 -9.2
  Nov 10, 2024 308   Niagara W 84-78 OT 63%     1 - 1 -4.6 -0.4 -4.6
  Nov 16, 2024 203   Toledo L 67-82 41%     1 - 2 -19.9 -13.5 -5.9
  Nov 20, 2024 270   @ Ball St. W 70-59 34%     2 - 2 +8.0 +0.3 +8.3
  Nov 23, 2024 89   @ Wake Forest L 57-67 7%     2 - 3 -1.0 -6.0 +4.6
  Nov 26, 2024 225   Tulsa L 44-63 36%     2 - 4 -22.6 -25.4 +1.1
  Nov 27, 2024 91   Rhode Island L 75-81 11%     2 - 5 -0.1 +4.1 -4.2
  Nov 30, 2024 299   @ Eastern Michigan W 98-89 OT 39%     3 - 5 +4.7 +11.5 -7.9
  Dec 05, 2024 150   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-78 32%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -1.4 +3.8 -5.2
  Dec 07, 2024 136   Wright St. L 71-77 30%    
  Dec 14, 2024 134   @ Davidson L 66-78 13%    
  Dec 18, 2024 216   @ Northern Kentucky L 66-74 24%    
  Dec 22, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 61-84 2%    
  Dec 29, 2024 229   @ Youngstown St. L 66-72 28%    
  Jan 02, 2025 275   Robert Morris W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 04, 2025 172   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-76 37%    
  Jan 09, 2025 356   @ IU Indianapolis W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 150   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-80 16%    
  Jan 18, 2025 144   Oakland L 64-69 32%    
  Jan 22, 2025 259   @ Cleveland St. L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 25, 2025 136   @ Wright St. L 68-80 15%    
  Jan 30, 2025 216   Northern Kentucky L 69-71 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 310   Green Bay W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 05, 2025 275   @ Robert Morris L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 229   Youngstown St. L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 16, 2025 144   @ Oakland L 61-72 16%    
  Feb 19, 2025 356   IU Indianapolis W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 21, 2025 259   Cleveland St. W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 27, 2025 310   @ Green Bay L 75-77 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 172   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-79 20%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.8 1.1 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.5 5.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.2 6.1 2.0 0.1 15.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.5 6.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 16.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.4 5.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.0 3.2 1.0 0.1 11.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.4 7.5 10.9 13.2 14.4 14.0 11.6 8.8 5.9 3.7 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 90.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 77.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 48.7% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 20.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 17.2% 17.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 11.7% 11.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 0.9% 11.0% 11.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
14-6 1.8% 7.6% 7.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
13-7 3.7% 6.8% 6.8% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.4
12-8 5.9% 4.9% 4.9% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.6
11-9 8.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.6 0.1 0.2 8.5
10-10 11.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.4
9-11 14.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.8
8-12 14.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.3
7-13 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.2
6-14 10.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.8
5-15 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.5
4-16 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%