Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -5.1 256
Results Rating -3.6 228
Consistency 0.12 49
Pace 71.2 109
Improvement +6.2 13

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 215 D+ C- C+ C- F
Defense D+ 280 C D+ D- D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 345 D+ 54% 282 -5.7 346
2 Pt. Jumpers 61% 12 C+ 39% 130 +6.2 5
Three Pointers 33% 329 C+ 35% 152 -3.6 306
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.5 363 C -0.6 193
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 276
Second Chance C+ 32.0% 136 D- 0.91 332 C- 0.29 224
Turnovers from Steals C+ 8.9% 124
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 174
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 135
Freethrows D 0.27 302 B+ 77% 23 C- 0.21 231
Total Offense C- -1.6 215

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 227 D+ 12.9% 296
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 121 B- 4.0% 103
Three Pointers B- 88% 105 C 0.8% 168
Total D+ 52% 266 C 5.7% 200

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 116 C- 59% 206 +2.0 245
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 334 B- 36% 100 -2.3 22
Three Pointers 43% 102 C+ 33% 154 +0.8 227
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 329 C -0.4 166
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 193
Second Chance C- 31.9% 249 D+ 1.11 291 D+ 0.35 286
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.2% 277
Other Turnovers D- 5.7% 351
Turnovers D- 13.9% 336
Freethrows D 0.34 299 C- 73% 234 D 0.25 299
Total Defense D+ -3.5 280

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 283 D+ 8.6% 270
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 222 C 5.4% 134
Three Pointers D 89% 324 C+ 1.3% 89
Total D 62% 313 C- 4.9% 227

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 180 16.5 48
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 143 0.21 304
Consistency 0.10 34 0.11 105
Improvement +2.5 74 +3.7 27

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 271 253 226
Results Rating Rank 248 228 198
Conference Record 11 - 9 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 5 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.2 16.0
.500 or above 8% 17% 5%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 0% 4%
First Round4% 7% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 23.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 410 - 413 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 106 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 91 13% -6  40% 0 - 1 D- -13 D- -8 F F+ B- C- -3 C- F B
 Fri, Nov 7 93 @Notre Dame L 70 - 102 10% -17  7% 0 - 2 F -23 D- -7 C+ F+ D+ F -13 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 160 @Toledo L 83 - 90 23% -4  3% 0 - 3 C- -4 C- -1 D D+ B C- -3 D- C- B+
 Tue, Nov 18 246 Eastern Michigan L 62 - 72 61% +1  48% 0 - 4 F -18 F -14 F C+ D+ D+ -4 D C C+
 Fri, Nov 21 10 @Michigan St. L 56 - 84 1% -16  0% 0 - 5 D+ -6 D -5 C+ C F C -1 B+ F C
 Sun, Nov 23 89 @DePaul L 75 - 95 10% -9  28% 0 - 6 D -11 A- +10 B C B F -21 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 340 @Niagara W 70 - 66 65% +6  94% 1 - 6 D+ -5 D+ -4 F C+ B- C -1 C D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 325 IU Indianapolis W 92 - 78 79% +10  85% 2 - 6 1 - 0 C +0 B +7 F A+ A+ D- -7 C D D
 Sat, Dec 6 317 @Cleveland St. W 71 - 59 56% +4  68% 3 - 6 2 - 0 B- +5 D -5 F F A+ A+ +12 A+ D B
 Sun, Dec 14 259 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 81 40% -2  28% 3 - 7 2 - 1 D+ -7 C+ +2 F+ C- A+ F+ -9 D+ D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 207 @Youngstown St. W 73 - 68 30% +7  71% 4 - 7 3 - 1 B- +5 C- -1 C+ F D+ B+ +6 A+ B F
 Fri, Jan 2 162 Robert Morris L 77 - 85 43% -0  53% 4 - 8 3 - 2 D- -11 C +1 B B F F -12 C+ F B-
 Fri, Jan 9 161 Wright St. L 82 - 84 43% -6  20% 4 - 9 3 - 3 D+ -5 C+ +3 D A+ B+ F+ -8 D- B C
 Sun, Jan 11 317 Cleveland St. W 94 - 84 77% +11  96% 5 - 9 4 - 3 C- -3 C +0 D+ B F D+ -4 F+ A C+
 Thu, Jan 15 191 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 96 28% -12  0% 5 - 10 4 - 4 F -24 D- -8 F B- A+ F -15 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 325 @IU Indianapolis W 80 - 77 59% -1  44% 6 - 10 5 - 4 C- -5 D -6 F F C+ C+ +1 B- F C+
 Wed, Jan 21 259 Purdue Fort Wayne L 76 - 83 63% -2  34% 6 - 11 5 - 5 F+ -16 D -6 F+ F+ B+ F+ -10 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 164 Oakland L 87 - 95 43% -4  7% 6 - 12 5 - 6 D- -11 B+ +7 A D+ C F -19 F D+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 191 Northern Kentucky W 90 - 77 49% +9  84% 7 - 12 6 - 6 B- +8 A +12 A+ A- D+ D+ -4 B- B+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 265 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 63 41% +8  98% 8 - 12 7 - 6 B +10 B- +5 B- B+ C- B+ +6 B- B+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 226 @Green Bay L 63 - 76 33% -9  0% 8 - 13 7 - 7 D- -14 F -13 F+ F+ F C- -2 A F F+
 Thu, Feb 12 161 @Wright St. W 77 - 74 23% +0  42% 9 - 13 8 - 7 B- +6 B +6 B+ C B- C -0 B B- F
 Sun, Feb 15 207 Youngstown St. W 76 - 70 52% +8  97% 10 - 13 9 - 7 C +0 D+ -3 D- D- A+ B- +3 B A- D
 Fri, Feb 20 265 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 91 - 86 64% +2  67% 11 - 13 10 - 7 C- -4 A- +10 A D B F -13 F F C
 Sun, Feb 22 226 Green Bay W 74 - 70 56% +1  59% 12 - 13 11 - 7 C- -3 D- -7 D F+ F+ B +4 C- A B
 Wed, Feb 25 162 @Robert Morris L 62 - 73 23% +1  55% 12 - 14 11 - 8 D -8 D- -7 D+ D- D- C- -3 A+ F F
 Sat, Feb 28 164 @Oakland L 79 - 87 24%
Totals 12 - 15 11 - 9 -5 C- -2 A+ C F D+ -4 C+ B+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C+ C+ C 31% 61% 33% F D+ C+ D- C- C+ D B+ C- D+ C- B- C+ C 41% 15% 43% D C C- D+ D+ D- D C- D
1.06 54% 39% 35% -1 -2 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 16% .27 77% .21 1.14 59% 36% 33% 0 +1 1.03 32% 1.1 .35 14% .34 73% .19
Nov
3		 Illinois-Chicago D- C B F F+ 15% 25% 59% F F B F F+ B- C+ C+ C+ C- A B F C- 35% 18% 47% C- C- B F F B F F F
0.90 56% 40% 23% -10 -2 0.78 39% 0.6 .22 19% .31 75% .23 1.15 44% 33% 42% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.5 .50 20% .57 83% .47
Nov
7		 Notre Dame D- F A+ D+ B- 25% 33% 43% F+ C+ D F F+ D+ F F F F B- A F D+ 38% 12% 50% F D B- F F F C D C-
0.92 47% 55% 31% +1 -3 0.98 20% 0.6 .12 17% .16 50% .08 1.34 59% 29% 45% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.8 .56 9% .32 73% .23
Nov
15		 Toledo C- D+ B- C- D 43% 21% 36% C- D C D- D+ B C+ F C C- F F A- D- 40% 17% 43% F+ D- D- B- C- B+ F B+ F
1.09 56% 42% 33% -1 0 1.02 35% 0.9 .30 16% .26 65% .17 1.18 71% 67% 30% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 18% .48 70% .34
Nov
18		 Eastern Michigan F F B- F F 24% 48% 28% F F C B- C+ D+ C A+ A D+ D B+ C- D+ 41% 22% 37% D- D D B C C+ F A+ F
0.89 46% 42% 0% -15 -5 0.63 30% 1.1 .33 17% .31 94% .29 1.03 63% 30% 35% +1 0 1.04 30% 0.9 .27 19% .44 60% .26
Nov
21		 Michigan St. D D- A+ D- B 26% 38% 36% F C+ A F C F F A+ D- C C- F+ A+ A- 31% 25% 43% C+ B+ D F F C F C- F
0.82 46% 47% 28% -3 -3 0.90 30% 0.5 .14 22% .15 88% .13 1.22 63% 46% 27% -1 -1 0.98 44% 1.4 .61 17% .46 77% .35
Nov
23		 DePaul A- C B- A+ B+ 42% 35% 23% D B A F C B B- A+ A F C- A+ F F 36% 18% 46% C- F F F F F F F F
1.12 55% 41% 45% +4 -2 1.06 38% 0.7 .26 18% .34 84% .29 1.41 61% 22% 52% +11 0 1.24 41% 1.4 .59 10% .43 81% .35
Nov
29		 Niagara D+ D- B- F F 33% 31% 36% F+ F B- D+ C+ B- A+ C- A+ C F F A+ C 36% 13% 51% C C A+ F D+ F C- A C+
1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41 1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16
Dec
3		 IU Indianapolis B D- F A+ F 45% 25% 30% F+ F B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+ D- D+ C- B C+ 32% 17% 51% D+ C F B- D D C- A+ C+
1.29 54% 15% 44% -3 0 0.96 41% 1.7 .71 13% .39 88% .34 1.10 63% 40% 30% -1 0 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 14% .20 58% .11
Dec
6		 Cleveland St. D A+ D F D 24% 49% 27% F F F+ F+ F A+ C+ D+ C A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 37% 15% 48% D+ A+ F A+ D B F A- D
1.12 83% 36% 29% +3 -5 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 9% .33 74% .24 0.93 41% 0% 36% -10 +1 0.83 43% 0.8 .33 21% .40 70% .28
Dec
14		 Purdue Fort Wayne C+ F D A+ D 33% 33% 33% F F+ C+ D+ C- A+ D A+ C F+ C F B- D+ 45% 8% 47% F D+ B- F D+ F F A+ D
1.13 42% 32% 47% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 13% .24 86% .20 1.19 58% 75% 32% +1 +2 1.09 19% 1.3 .25 3% .41 52% .21
Dec
29		 Youngstown St. C- D B+ A+ B+ 24% 42% 33% F C+ C+ F F D+ A+ D+ A B+ C+ A+ A- A+ 22% 13% 65% B A+ D A+ B F D- C+ D
1.05 55% 42% 47% +7 -4 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 20% .45 72% .32 0.98 58% 14% 29% -8 0 0.85 33% 0.7 .24 11% .32 70% .23
Jan
2		 Robert Morris C D B- A+ A 41% 37% 22% F B B- B+ B F A+ C+ A+ F C+ A+ C- B 51% 13% 36% F C+ F D F B- F F F
1.13 53% 41% 60% +7 -2 1.13 32% 1.1 .35 21% .48 77% .37 1.24 54% 17% 35% -4 +2 0.98 48% 1.2 .58 19% .58 88% .51
Jan
9		 Wright St. C+ B+ C F C- 34% 42% 25% F D A A- A+ B+ A+ B- A+ F+ C- A- F D- 47% 20% 33% D+ D- A- D+ B C F F F
1.16 67% 41% 23% 0 -3 0.96 40% 1.2 .49 14% .51 74% .38 1.19 61% 30% 44% +4 +1 1.12 25% 1.1 .29 17% .48 82% .39
Jan
11		 Cleveland St. C B+ F A+ C 32% 32% 36% F D+ A+ F+ B F A+ A A+ D+ D+ A+ F F+ 34% 9% 57% D- F+ B A+ A C+ F+ A+ C
1.24 71% 24% 47% +7 -2 1.11 51% 0.9 .46 21% .52 84% .44 1.11 61% 0% 47% +8 +1 1.21 22% 0.8 .16 19% .39 63% .24
Jan
15		 Northern Kentucky D- F D- F F 24% 34% 42% F F C- A B- A+ F F F F D+ F F F 51% 9% 40% F F A- F D+ F F D F
0.95 47% 33% 27% -9 -3 0.79 31% 1.3 .42 9% .13 33% .04 1.28 63% 60% 43% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.4 .33 12% .47 74% .35
Jan
17		 IU Indianapolis D C- F D- F 44% 24% 32% F+ F C F F C+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ F A+ B+ 42% 11% 47% F B- F F F C+ C+ C C+
1.07 59% 25% 31% -4 0 0.94 36% 0.8 .31 19% .49 87% .43 1.03 63% 50% 22% -5 +2 0.95 34% 1.2 .42 17% .16 70% .11
Jan
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne D C+ D- B+ D+ 28% 40% 32% F F+ D- F+ F+ B+ B- D+ C+ F+ A- A+ F D+ 35% 15% 50% C+ D+ C- B C+ F F C- F
1.06 63% 30% 39% 0 -3 0.96 28% 0.9 .26 17% .30 72% .22 1.15 47% 25% 44% +2 +1 1.07 23% 0.9 .20 8% .36 71% .26
Jan
24		 Oakland B+ A- A+ A A+ 18% 34% 48% F A B F D+ C F A+ D F F F B- F 53% 11% 36% F F D C D+ F F F F
1.26 70% 63% 41% +16 -3 1.27 39% 0.8 .30 16% .14 100% .14 1.38 68% 50% 32% +5 +2 1.17 34% 1.1 .38 7% .41 85% .34
Jan
30		 Northern Kentucky A C B- A+ A+ 30% 26% 43% F+ A+ B B+ A- D+ A+ F+ A+ D+ C- F A B 32% 7% 61% D+ B- D+ A+ B+ F F A F
1.28 57% 42% 60% +18 -1 1.35 38% 1.3 .48 21% .50 64% .32 1.09 61% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.93 32% 0.7 .23 11% .43 63% .27
Feb
4		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B- A- D- A+ B+ 43% 33% 24% F B- C+ A B+ C- D+ A C B+ F+ F A+ B- 35% 25% 40% C+ B- B+ B B+ C C- D- D+
1.19 70% 33% 45% +8 -1 1.15 31% 1.4 .42 17% .30 81% .25 0.99 65% 50% 16% -5 -1 0.90 26% 1.0 .26 16% .28 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Green Bay F F D+ A+ D 20% 39% 41% F F+ C- F F+ F D+ A C C- A+ A C- A+ 50% 15% 35% D- A F D F F+ D F F
0.95 33% 33% 42% -2 -4 0.91 30% 0.8 .24 20% .32 82% .26 1.14 42% 29% 35% -9 +2 0.88 37% 1.2 .43 12% .39 87% .34
Feb
12		 Wright St. B B A+ B A+ 33% 46% 21% F B+ B- D- C B- F A+ F C B- F A+ B+ 44% 19% 37% D+ B C- A- B- F C- D- D+
1.16 65% 54% 36% +10 -4 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 15% .16 89% .14 1.12 54% 50% 25% -5 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .30 11% .32 79% .25
Feb
15		 Youngstown St. D+ D F A D 44% 33% 22% D- D- D- D D- A+ C B- C+ B- C- D+ A+ A- 54% 9% 37% F B A+ F+ A- D C B- C+
1.06 54% 28% 42% -3 -1 0.94 25% 0.9 .22 10% .34 77% .26 0.98 62% 40% 20% -5 +3 0.96 17% 1.2 .20 17% .27 69% .18
Feb
20		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A- D+ A+ A+ A 40% 20% 40% D+ A C+ F D B A+ A A+ F D+ F D F 50% 9% 41% F F F+ F F C D- A+ B
1.30 55% 70% 45% +12 0 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 14% .43 81% .35 1.23 59% 60% 36% +4 +2 1.15 38% 1.5 .57 16% .32 47% .15
Feb
22		 Green Bay D- C+ F B+ D+ 42% 32% 26% D D D+ F F+ F+ B A+ A+ B C A+ F C- 46% 18% 36% C- C- A A+ A B B- F D+
1.07 62% 25% 38% -1 -1 0.98 28% 0.9 .25 17% .39 95% .37 1.01 57% 22% 44% +2 +1 1.08 17% 0.8 .13 19% .32 89% .29
Feb
25		 Robert Morris D- C+ A- F C 30% 40% 30% F D+ D F D- D- F B F C- B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 19% 46% C- A+ C F F F F F F
0.97 60% 45% 27% 0 -3 0.96 25% 0.8 .19 19% .19 80% .16 1.15 53% 22% 23% -13 0 0.77 36% 1.4 .50 9% .38 77% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2.9 2.9 2nd
3rd 20.7 20.7 3rd
4th 33.3 33.3 4th
5th 43.1 43.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 76.4 23.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 23.6% 6.8% 6.8% 15.2 1.2 0.4 22.0
11-9 76.4% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.1 4.0 72.3
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 15.8 94.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 15.2 76.3 23.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.7%
Lose Out 42.8%