Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.1 255
Results Rating -3.8 233
Pace 71.2 111
Improvement +6.2 13

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 203 D+ C- C+ C- F
Defense D+ 289 C- D+ D- D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 348 D+ 54% 286 -6.0 351
2 Pt. Jumpers 59% 15 C+ 39% 126 +6.2 5
Three Pointers 34% 319 C+ 35% 139 -3.2 291
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.5 362 C -0.5 191
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 275
Second Chance C+ 32.3% 130 D 0.92 324 C- 0.30 212
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 116
Freethrows D+ 0.27 288 B 76% 48 C- 0.21 223
Total Offense C- -1.3 203

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 225 D+ 12.4% 265
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 126 B- 4.0% 111
Three Pointers B- 88% 98 C 0.9% 179
Total C- 52% 257 C 5.5% 179

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 108 C- 59% 203 +2.0 245
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 340 C+ 37% 134 -2.2 25
Three Pointers 43% 101 C 34% 157 +1.0 232
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 336 C -0.1 175
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 203
Second Chance C- 32.1% 255 D+ 1.10 291 D+ 0.35 291
Turnovers D- 14.0% 333
Freethrows D 0.35 303 C 72% 187 D 0.25 296
Total Defense D+ -3.8 289

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 295 D+ 8.3% 279
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 246 C 4.9% 169
Three Pointers D- 90% 338 B- 1.4% 71
Total D 62% 324 C- 4.8% 237

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 167 16.5 48
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 128 0.20 280
Improvement +3.4 #39 +2.8 #50

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 276 252 218
Results Rating Rank 278 232 195
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 5 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 7% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 12% 18% 3%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 2% 3%
First Round4% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 56.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 410 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 109 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 91 14% -6  40% 0 - 1 D- -13 D- -8 F F+ B- D+ -3 D+ F B
 Fri, Nov 7 86 @Notre Dame L 70 - 102 9% -17  7% 0 - 2 F -22 D- -7 C+ F D+ F -13 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 161 @Toledo L 83 - 90 23% -4  3% 0 - 3 C- -4 C- -1 D D+ B C- -3 D- C- B+
 Tue, Nov 18 248 Eastern Michigan L 62 - 72 61% +1  48% 0 - 4 F -18 F -15 F C+ C- C- -3 D+ C C+
 Fri, Nov 21 10 @Michigan St. L 56 - 84 1% -16  0% 0 - 5 D+ -6 D -5 C+ C F C -1 A- F C
 Sun, Nov 23 93 @DePaul L 75 - 95 10% -9  28% 0 - 6 D -11 A- +10 B C B F -22 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 336 @Niagara W 70 - 66 64% +6  94% 1 - 6 C- -5 D -4 F C+ B- C -0 C D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 325 IU Indianapolis W 92 - 78 79% +10  85% 2 - 6 1 - 0 C +1 B +7 F A+ A+ D- -7 C D D
 Sat, Dec 6 314 @Cleveland St. W 71 - 59 55% +4  68% 3 - 6 2 - 0 B- +6 D -5 F F A+ A+ +12 A+ D- B
 Sun, Dec 14 261 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 81 41% -2  28% 3 - 7 2 - 1 D+ -7 C+ +2 F+ C A+ F+ -9 D D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 198 @Youngstown St. W 73 - 68 28% +7  71% 4 - 7 3 - 1 B- +6 C- -2 C+ F D+ A- +8 A+ B+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 179 Robert Morris L 77 - 85 47% -0  53% 4 - 8 3 - 2 D- -12 C +0 B B F F -13 C+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 153 Wright St. L 82 - 84 41% -6  20% 4 - 9 3 - 3 C- -5 C+ +3 D A+ B+ D- -8 D B C
 Sun, Jan 11 314 Cleveland St. W 94 - 84 75% +11  96% 5 - 9 4 - 3 C- -2 C +0 D+ B F D+ -3 F+ A- C
 Thu, Jan 15 195 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 96 28% -12  0% 5 - 10 4 - 4 F -24 F+ -9 F B- A+ F -14 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 325 @IU Indianapolis W 80 - 77 59% -1  44% 6 - 10 5 - 4 C- -4 D -6 F F C+ C+ +1 B- F C+
 Wed, Jan 21 261 Purdue Fort Wayne L 76 - 83 64% -2  34% 6 - 11 5 - 5 F+ -16 D -6 F+ F+ B+ F+ -10 D+ C F
 Sat, Jan 24 172 Oakland L 87 - 95 44% -4  7% 6 - 12 5 - 6 D- -12 B+ +7 A C- C- F -19 F D+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 195 Northern Kentucky W 90 - 77 50% +9  84% 7 - 12 6 - 6 B- +8 A +11 A+ A- D+ D+ -3 B- B+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 271 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 63 43% +8  98% 8 - 12 7 - 6 B +10 B- +5 B- B C- B+ +6 B- B+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 225 @Green Bay L 63 - 76 33% -9  0% 8 - 13 7 - 7 D- -14 F -13 F+ F+ F C -1 A F F+
 Thu, Feb 12 153 @Wright St. W 77 - 74 21% +0  42% 9 - 13 8 - 7 B- +6 B +6 B+ C B C +0 B B- F
 Sun, Feb 15 198 Youngstown St. W 76 - 70 50% +8  97% 10 - 13 9 - 7 C +1 D+ -4 D- D- A+ B +4 B A D
 Fri, Feb 20 271 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 91 - 86 65% +2  67% 11 - 13 10 - 7 C- -4 A- +9 A D B F -14 F F C
 Sun, Feb 22 225 Green Bay W 76 - 74 56%
 Wed, Feb 25 179 @Robert Morris L 71 - 78 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 172 @Oakland L 80 - 87 24%
Totals 12 - 15 11 - 9 -5 C- -1 A+ C F D+ -4 C+ B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C+ C+ C 30% 59% 34% F D+ C+ D C- C+ D+ B C- D+ C- C+ C C 41% 15% 43% D C- C- D+ D+ D- D C D
1.07 54% 39% 35% -1 -2 0.96 32% 0.9 .30 16% .27 76% .21 1.14 59% 37% 34% 0 +1 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 14% .35 72% .20
Nov
3		 Illinois-Chicago D- C- B F F+ 15% 25% 59% F F B F F+ B- C+ C C+ D+ A B F D+ 35% 18% 47% C- D+ B F F B F F F
0.90 56% 40% 23% -10 -2 0.78 39% 0.6 .22 19% .31 75% .23 1.15 44% 33% 42% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.5 .50 20% .57 83% .47
Nov
7		 Notre Dame D- F A+ D+ B- 25% 33% 43% F+ C+ D F F D+ F F F F B- A F D+ 38% 12% 50% F D B F F F C- D C-
0.92 47% 55% 31% +1 -3 0.98 20% 0.6 .12 17% .16 50% .08 1.34 59% 29% 45% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.8 .56 9% .32 73% .23
Nov
15		 Toledo C- D+ B- C- D 43% 21% 36% C- D C D- D+ B C+ F C- C- F F B+ D 40% 17% 43% F+ D- D- B C- B+ F B+ F
1.09 56% 42% 33% -1 0 1.02 35% 0.9 .30 16% .26 65% .17 1.18 71% 67% 30% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 18% .48 70% .34
Nov
18		 Eastern Michigan F F B- F F 24% 48% 28% F F C B- C+ C- C A+ A C- D+ B+ C- D+ 41% 22% 37% D- D+ D B C C+ F A+ F
0.89 46% 42% 0% -15 -5 0.63 30% 1.1 .33 17% .31 94% .29 1.03 63% 30% 35% +1 0 1.04 30% 0.9 .27 19% .44 60% .26
Nov
21		 Michigan St. D D- A+ F+ B 26% 38% 36% F C+ A F C F F A+ D- C C F+ A+ A- 31% 25% 43% C+ A- D F F C F C- F
0.82 46% 47% 28% -3 -3 0.90 30% 0.5 .14 22% .15 88% .13 1.22 63% 46% 27% -1 -1 0.98 44% 1.4 .61 17% .46 77% .35
Nov
23		 DePaul A- C B- A+ B+ 42% 35% 23% D B A F C B B- A+ A F C- A+ F F 36% 18% 46% C- F F F F F F F F
1.12 55% 41% 45% +4 -2 1.06 38% 0.7 .26 18% .34 84% .29 1.41 61% 22% 52% +11 0 1.24 41% 1.4 .59 10% .43 81% .35
Nov
29		 Niagara D D B- F F 33% 31% 36% F+ F B D+ C+ B- A+ C A+ C F F A+ C 36% 13% 51% C C A+ F D+ F C- A C+
1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41 1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16
Dec
3		 IU Indianapolis B D- F A+ F 45% 25% 30% D- F B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+ D- D+ C- B C 32% 17% 51% D C F B- D D C- A+ C+
1.29 54% 15% 44% -3 0 0.96 41% 1.7 .71 13% .39 88% .34 1.10 63% 40% 30% -1 0 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 14% .20 58% .11
Dec
6		 Cleveland St. D A+ D F D 24% 49% 27% F F F+ F+ F A+ B- D C+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 37% 15% 48% D+ A+ F A+ D- B F+ A- D
1.12 83% 36% 29% +3 -5 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 9% .33 74% .24 0.93 41% 0% 36% -10 +1 0.83 43% 0.8 .33 21% .40 70% .28
Dec
14		 Purdue Fort Wayne C+ F D A+ D- 33% 33% 33% F F+ C+ C- C A+ D A+ C F+ C F B- D+ 45% 8% 47% F D C+ F D+ F F A+ D
1.13 42% 32% 47% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 13% .24 86% .20 1.19 58% 75% 32% +1 +2 1.09 19% 1.3 .25 3% .41 52% .21
Dec
29		 Youngstown St. C- D B+ A+ B+ 24% 42% 33% F C+ C+ F F D+ A+ D+ A A- C+ A+ A- A+ 22% 13% 65% B+ A+ D+ A+ B+ F D- C+ D
1.05 55% 42% 47% +7 -4 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 20% .45 72% .32 0.98 58% 14% 29% -8 0 0.85 33% 0.7 .24 11% .32 70% .23
Jan
2		 Robert Morris C D B- A+ A 41% 37% 22% F B B- B+ B F A+ C+ A F C+ A+ C- B+ 51% 13% 36% F C+ F D F C+ F F F
1.13 53% 41% 60% +7 -2 1.13 32% 1.1 .35 21% .48 77% .37 1.24 54% 17% 35% -4 +2 0.98 48% 1.2 .58 19% .58 88% .51
Jan
9		 Wright St. C+ B+ C F C- 34% 42% 25% F D A A- A+ B+ A+ B- A+ D- C- A- F D 47% 20% 33% D+ D A- D+ B C F F F
1.16 67% 41% 23% 0 -3 0.96 40% 1.2 .49 14% .51 74% .38 1.19 61% 30% 44% +4 +1 1.12 25% 1.1 .29 17% .48 82% .39
Jan
11		 Cleveland St. C B+ F A+ C 32% 32% 36% F D+ A+ F+ B F A+ A- A+ D+ D+ A+ F F+ 34% 9% 57% D- F+ B+ A+ A- C F+ A+ C
1.24 71% 24% 47% +7 -2 1.11 51% 0.9 .46 21% .52 84% .44 1.11 61% 0% 47% +8 +1 1.21 22% 0.8 .16 19% .39 63% .24
Jan
15		 Northern Kentucky F+ F D- F F 24% 34% 42% F F C- A B- A+ F F F F D+ F F F 51% 9% 40% F F A- F D+ F F D+ F
0.95 47% 33% 27% -9 -3 0.79 31% 1.3 .42 9% .13 33% .04 1.28 63% 60% 43% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.4 .33 12% .47 74% .35
Jan
17		 IU Indianapolis D C- F D- F 44% 24% 32% D- F C F F C+ A A+ A+ C+ D+ F A+ B+ 42% 11% 47% F B- F F F C+ C+ C+ C+
1.07 59% 25% 31% -4 0 0.94 36% 0.8 .31 19% .49 87% .43 1.03 63% 50% 22% -5 +2 0.95 34% 1.2 .42 17% .16 70% .11
Jan
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne D C+ D- B+ D 28% 40% 32% F F+ D- D- F+ B+ B- D C+ F+ A A+ F D+ 35% 15% 50% C D+ C- B C F F C F
1.06 63% 30% 39% 0 -3 0.96 28% 0.9 .26 17% .30 72% .22 1.15 47% 25% 44% +2 +1 1.07 23% 0.9 .20 8% .36 71% .26
Jan
24		 Oakland B+ A- A+ A A+ 18% 34% 48% F A B F C- C- F A+ D F F F B- F 53% 11% 36% F F D C D+ F F F F
1.26 70% 63% 41% +16 -3 1.27 39% 0.8 .30 16% .14 100% .14 1.38 68% 50% 32% +5 +2 1.17 34% 1.1 .38 7% .41 85% .34
Jan
30		 Northern Kentucky A C C+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 43% F+ A+ B B+ A- D+ A+ D- A+ D+ C- F A B 32% 7% 61% D+ B- D+ A+ B+ F F A F
1.28 57% 42% 60% +18 -1 1.35 38% 1.3 .48 21% .50 64% .32 1.09 61% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.93 32% 0.7 .23 11% .43 63% .27
Feb
4		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B- A D- A+ B+ 43% 33% 24% F B- C A B C- D+ A C B+ F+ F A+ B- 35% 25% 40% C+ B- B+ B B+ C C F+ D+
1.19 70% 33% 45% +8 -1 1.15 31% 1.4 .42 17% .30 81% .25 0.99 65% 50% 16% -5 -1 0.90 26% 1.0 .26 16% .28 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Green Bay F F D A+ D 20% 39% 41% F F+ C- F F+ F D+ A C+ C A+ A C- A+ 50% 15% 35% D- A F D+ F F+ D F F
0.95 33% 33% 42% -2 -4 0.91 30% 0.8 .24 20% .32 82% .26 1.14 42% 29% 35% -9 +2 0.88 37% 1.2 .43 12% .39 87% .34
Feb
12		 Wright St. B B A+ B A 33% 46% 21% F B+ B D- C B F A+ F C B- F A+ B+ 44% 19% 37% D+ B C- A- B- F C D- D+
1.16 65% 54% 36% +10 -4 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 15% .16 89% .14 1.12 54% 50% 25% -5 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .30 11% .32 79% .25
Feb
15		 Youngstown St. D+ D F+ A D- 44% 33% 22% D D- D- D D- A+ C B- C+ B C- D+ A+ A- 54% 9% 37% F B A+ D- A D C B- C+
1.06 54% 28% 42% -3 -1 0.94 25% 0.9 .22 10% .34 77% .26 0.98 62% 40% 20% -5 +3 0.96 17% 1.2 .20 17% .27 69% .18
Feb
20		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A- D+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% D+ A C+ F D B A+ A- A+ F D+ F D F 50% 9% 41% F F F+ F F C D- A+ B
1.30 55% 70% 45% +12 0 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 14% .43 81% .35 1.23 59% 60% 36% +4 +2 1.15 38% 1.5 .57 16% .32 47% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 12.7 4.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 2.1 11.1 13.2 3rd
4th 18.4 18.4 4th
5th 6.3 20.2 26.4 5th
6th 12.8 5.0 17.8 6th
7th 6.7 0.4 7.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 25.8 46.2 23.7 4.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 6.5% 0.3    0.3
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 4.3% 11.8% 11.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 3.8
12-8 23.7% 7.5% 7.5% 15.4 0.0 1.0 0.8 21.9
11-9 46.2% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.1 2.4 43.8
10-10 25.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7 25.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 15.7 94.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.8 1.3 21.7 73.0 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 11.6%