Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.2#2
Expected Predictive Rating+26.3#3
Pace63.7#320
Improvement+0.7#121

Offense
Total Offense+14.9#1
First Shot+13.6#1
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#116
Layup/Dunks+3.2#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#15
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement+0.7#116

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#19
First Shot+7.1#20
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#171
Layups/Dunks+5.5#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#301
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#293
Freethrows+6.9#1
Improvement-0.1#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 15.2% 17.6% 9.9%
#1 Seed 50.5% 55.2% 39.8%
Top 2 Seed 79.7% 84.1% 69.9%
Top 4 Seed 96.2% 97.7% 92.8%
Top 6 Seed 99.3% 99.7% 98.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 1.9 1.7 2.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.5% 98.9%
Conference Champion 31.8% 34.3% 26.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round97.6% 98.2% 96.4%
Sweet Sixteen76.3% 78.3% 71.7%
Elite Eight51.8% 54.5% 45.8%
Final Four31.6% 33.9% 26.6%
Championship Game18.3% 20.0% 14.4%
National Champion10.1% 11.1% 7.7%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Home) - 69.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 48 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 113 - 5
Quad 26 - 020 - 5
Quad 36 - 025 - 6
Quad 43 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 291 Evansville W 82-51 99%     1 - 0 +20.8 +16.3 +8.6
  Fri, Nov 7 139 Oakland W 87-77 98%     2 - 0 +8.5 +10.1 -1.5
  Thu, Nov 13 11 @Alabama W 87-80 51%     3 - 0 +29.0 +23.3 +5.8
  Sun, Nov 16 54 Akron W 97-79 92%     4 - 0 +24.9 +20.3 +3.9
  Thu, Nov 20 74 Memphis W 80-71 91%     5 - 0 +16.5 +15.1 +1.7
  Fri, Nov 21 29 Texas Tech W 86-56 79%     6 - 0 +43.8 +23.5 +21.9
  Fri, Nov 28 326 Eastern Illinois W 109-62 99.6%    7 - 0 +34.6 +29.6 +3.7
  Tue, Dec 2 119 @Rutgers W 81-65 93%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +22.1 +18.3 +5.1
  Sat, Dec 6 5 Iowa St. W 77-72 69%    
  Wed, Dec 10 108 Minnesota W 79-58 98%    
  Sat, Dec 13 79 Marquette W 84-66 95%    
  Sat, Dec 20 23 Auburn W 80-73 75%    
  Mon, Dec 29 124 Kent St. W 91-69 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 36 @Wisconsin W 80-73 72%    
  Wed, Jan 7 56 Washington W 82-66 93%    
  Sat, Jan 10 97 Penn St. W 86-66 97%    
  Wed, Jan 14 26 Iowa W 76-65 84%    
  Sat, Jan 17 30 @USC W 81-75 70%    
  Tue, Jan 20 32 @UCLA W 73-67 70%    
  Sat, Jan 24 18 Illinois W 82-74 77%    
  Tue, Jan 27 20 @Indiana W 76-73 62%    
  Sun, Feb 1 89 @Maryland W 81-68 89%    
  Sat, Feb 7 80 Oregon W 83-65 95%    
  Tue, Feb 10 51 @Nebraska W 80-72 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 26 @Iowa W 73-68 67%    
  Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 76-77 48%    
  Fri, Feb 20 20 Indiana W 79-70 80%    
  Thu, Feb 26 9 Michigan St. W 74-68 70%    
  Sun, Mar 1 24 @Ohio St. W 78-73 67%    
  Wed, Mar 4 57 @Northwestern W 78-68 81%    
  Sat, Mar 7 36 Wisconsin W 83-70 87%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 7.7 10.7 7.7 2.5 31.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.0 10.1 9.1 3.5 0.3 29.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.5 4.0 0.7 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.2 7.3 10.6 14.4 17.2 17.5 14.2 8.0 2.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
19-1 96.3% 7.7    6.4 1.3 0.0
18-2 75.5% 10.7    6.9 3.6 0.2
17-3 44.0% 7.7    3.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
16-4 15.7% 2.7    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.8% 31.8 19.7 9.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.5% 100.0% 46.1% 53.9% 1.1 2.3 0.2 100.0%
19-1 8.0% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 1.1 7.1 0.9 0.0 100.0%
18-2 14.2% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.2 11.6 2.6 0.0 100.0%
17-3 17.5% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 1.3 12.2 5.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 17.2% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 1.5 9.4 6.8 0.9 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.4% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 1.8 5.2 6.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.6% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 2.3 2.0 4.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 7.3% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 2.9 0.6 2.0 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 4.2% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 3.6 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-9 2.3% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 1.1% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.4% 100.0% 0.8% 99.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-12 0.2% 92.5% 92.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.5%
7-13 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 1.9 50.5 29.2 11.4 5.0 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 94.1 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 91.3 8.8