Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#242
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#179
Pace62.9#329
Improvement+1.0#122

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#282
First Shot-1.7#228
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#308
Layup/Dunks-3.9#302
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#40
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#89
Freethrows-3.8#346
Improvement-3.8#361

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#177
First Shot-1.2#211
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#114
Layups/Dunks-3.4#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#104
Freethrows-0.9#247
Improvement+4.8#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 13.4% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 84.4% 91.0% 77.0%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 85.5% 66.5%
Conference Champion 18.1% 25.1% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.8% 3.9%
First Four2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
First Round10.2% 12.2% 7.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 32 - 3
Quad 417 - 919 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 241   @ Harvard L 66-79 38%     0 - 1 -14.3 -1.5 -13.6
  Nov 09, 2024 186   @ Richmond W 79-72 28%     1 - 1 +8.8 +11.9 -2.8
  Nov 15, 2024 282   Army W 91-88 OT 69%     2 - 1 -6.4 +13.5 -19.9
  Nov 19, 2024 319   Dartmouth W 75-62 77%     3 - 1 +1.1 -3.9 +4.8
  Nov 23, 2024 350   New Hampshire W 54-49 85%     4 - 1 -10.6 -17.4 +7.4
  Nov 30, 2024 251   @ Lehigh L 69-74 41%     4 - 2 -6.9 -0.5 -6.9
  Dec 06, 2024 254   Mount St. Mary's W 53-50 64%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -5.1 -16.3 +11.4
  Dec 08, 2024 313   @ Manhattan W 69-68 53%    
  Dec 17, 2024 327   @ Stony Brook W 68-66 58%    
  Dec 21, 2024 296   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-71 70%    
  Dec 29, 2024 322   Binghamton W 69-61 76%    
  Jan 03, 2025 274   @ Iona L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 05, 2025 245   Quinnipiac W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 12, 2025 283   Fairfield W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 16, 2025 209   @ St. Peter's L 59-64 33%    
  Jan 18, 2025 257   Rider W 66-62 64%    
  Jan 23, 2025 308   @ Niagara W 65-64 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 345   @ Canisius W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 31, 2025 302   Siena W 66-60 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 283   @ Fairfield L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 274   Iona W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 14, 2025 302   @ Siena W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 16, 2025 222   @ Merrimack L 59-63 37%    
  Feb 21, 2025 345   Canisius W 73-62 83%    
  Feb 23, 2025 308   Niagara W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 28, 2025 269   @ Sacred Heart L 69-70 45%    
  Mar 02, 2025 209   St. Peter's W 62-61 53%    
  Mar 06, 2025 222   Merrimack W 62-60 57%    
  Mar 08, 2025 254   @ Mount St. Mary's L 64-66 42%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.8 4.5 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 18.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.4 5.1 2.6 0.7 0.1 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.7 4.4 5.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 5.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 4.8 2.3 0.2 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.5 0.7 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.6 1.2 0.1 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.0 0.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.1 8.9 10.8 12.4 13.4 12.3 10.3 7.6 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
17-3 97.3% 2.8    2.5 0.3
16-4 85.5% 4.5    3.5 0.9 0.0
15-5 62.8% 4.8    2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 31.5% 3.2    1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 8.2% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.1% 18.1 11.5 4.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 28.0% 28.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 45.0% 45.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.3% 36.7% 36.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8
17-3 2.9% 30.9% 30.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.0
16-4 5.2% 28.3% 28.3% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 3.7
15-5 7.6% 22.2% 22.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 5.9
14-6 10.3% 18.7% 18.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 8.4
13-7 12.3% 14.7% 14.7% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.2 10.5
12-8 13.4% 10.5% 10.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 12.0
11-9 12.4% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 11.5
10-10 10.8% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 10.4
9-11 8.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 8.7
8-12 6.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 6.0
7-13 4.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 5.4 88.6 0.0%