Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.4 184
Expected Predictive Rating -2.7 212
Pace 65.4 265
Improvement -4.6 340

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 312 D+ C- C- D+ D
Defense B 64 B- C+ B- D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 243 C- 56% 219 -1.9 253
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 108 B- 41% 83 +3.4 38
Three Pointers 36% 279 F+ 29% 345 -5.2 332
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 309 D+ -2.6 274
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 289
Second Chance D 25.9% 308 B 1.13 54 C- 0.29 226
Turnovers C- 17.9% 253
Freethrows D- 0.25 341 A- 79% 8 D+ 0.20 279
Total Offense D -5.5 312

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 61% 25 D+ 13.0% 295
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 113 B+ 2.4% 28
Three Pointers C+ 87% 141 C 0.9% 185
Total B- 59% 101 C 5.7% 203

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 216 C- 60% 224 +0.0 179
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 50 C+ 37% 116 +1.5 301
Three Pointers 37% 289 A- 29% 17 -4.7 20
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 64 B- -2.5 77
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 74
Second Chance C+ 29.5% 150 C+ 1.00 129 C+ 0.29 124
Turnovers B- 18.8% 69
Freethrows D 0.35 318 B 69% 51 D+ 0.25 284
Total Defense B +4.1 64

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 116 D 7.8% 312
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 121 C- 4.3% 203
Three Pointers C+ 83% 141 C+ 1.3% 92
Total B 50% 66 D+ 4.5% 268

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 219 17.6 249
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 302 0.12 33
Improvement +0.5 #159 -5.1 #351

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 207 182 156
Conference Record 11 - 9 13 - 7 13 - 7
Conference Finish 5 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 17% 14%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round17% 17% 14%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 80.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 61 - 7
Quad 418 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 82 @Xavier L 62 - 66 15% -4  37% 0 - 1 B- +6 D- -7 B C- F A+ +13 A+ C A-
 Sun, Nov 9 255 @Dartmouth W 75 - 56 54% +8  99% 1 - 1 A- +17 D+ -4 C C F A+ +20 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 164 Harvard L 54 - 56 57% -1  33% 1 - 2 D+ -5 F -16 F+ F F A +11 A+ C A
 Fri, Nov 21 336 Army W 76 - 65 89% +4  69% 2 - 2 C- -4 D+ -4 D- B- C+ C+ +1 D+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 305 Lehigh W 78 - 55 83% +13  85% 3 - 2 B+ +11 C +0 B- D B+ A+ +12 A+ D- F
 Fri, Dec 5 285 Mount St. Mary's W 64 - 56 80% +2  46% 4 - 2 1 - 0 C- -2 F -15 D C+ F A+ +13 A+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 321 Manhattan W 80 - 68 86% +3  71% 5 - 2 2 - 0 C -1 F -11 F D+ C- A +9 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 354 @Bryant W 82 - 74 83% +6  72% 6 - 2 C- -3 C+ +3 C+ D+ D- D -6 F A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 16 141 @Georgia Tech L 76 - 87 30% -8  19% 6 - 3 D+ -7 B +6 C+ A+ B- F -13 F D A-
 Sun, Dec 21 216 Stony Brook W 70 - 51 68% +13  90% 7 - 3 B+ +13 D+ -4 D B- A- A+ +18 A+ A B
 Mon, Dec 29 193 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 64 41% -3  11% 7 - 4 2 - 1 D+ -5 F -13 F C+ F A- +7 A F A
 Fri, Jan 2 235 @St. Peter's L 59 - 69 49% -3  27% 7 - 5 2 - 2 D -11 F -14 F F C+ B- +3 A F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 249 Iona W 83 - 38 73% +21  87% 8 - 5 3 - 2 A+ +37 B- +4 D- A+ A+ A+ +33 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 290 @Sacred Heart W 76 - 72 62% -2  34% 9 - 5 4 - 2 C -0 B- +4 C A C D+ -4 D+ F B+
 Sun, Jan 11 356 @Rider W 71 - 49 84% +12  93% 10 - 5 5 - 2 B +10 D- -6 D+ F C A+ +18 A- B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 266 Fairfield W 82 - 67 76% +13  99% 11 - 5 6 - 2 B- +6 B- +5 B A+ F C+ +2 A+ F+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 162 Merrimack L 55 - 68 57% -6  5% 11 - 6 6 - 3 F+ -16 F -16 F D- D+ C -1 D A B
 Thu, Jan 22 192 @Siena L 50 - 69 41% -4  25% 11 - 7 6 - 4 F -18 F -18 F F B+ D+ -3 B+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 193 Quinnipiac W 71 - 64 64% +8  92% 12 - 7 7 - 4 C+ +2 C +0 B D C- B- +2 B- A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 343 @Canisius W 88 - 86 OT 78% -1  49% 13 - 7 8 - 4 D+ -7 B +6 A F+ D F -14 F F D
 Sun, Feb 1 337 @Niagara W 58 - 46 76% +5  86% 14 - 7 9 - 4 C+ +3 F -13 F F B A+ +18 A+ C+ A
 Thu, Feb 5 356 Rider W 81 - 52 93% +18  91% 15 - 7 10 - 4 B +11 A +12 A+ C- D+ B +5 B+ D+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 266 @Fairfield L 60 - 63 56% -4  10% 15 - 8 10 - 5 D+ -6 F+ -10 F C F B- +3 C B+ D
 Thu, Feb 12 162 @Merrimack L 56 - 81 34% -6  42% 15 - 9 10 - 6 F -22 F -13 F B- C- F -10 F A+ D
 Sun, Feb 15 192 Siena L 63 - 67 64% -8  4% 15 - 10 10 - 7 D -9 F -11 F D A+ C+ +2 F A+ B+
 Fri, Feb 20 321 @Manhattan W 84 - 70 71% +7  65% 16 - 10 11 - 7 B- +7 A- +10 B+ A C+ C- -2 C+ F B-
 Sun, Feb 22 290 Sacred Heart W 76 - 67 80%
 Sun, Mar 1 235 St. Peter's W 67 - 61 70%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 7 -1 D -5 C+ D+ D B +4 F+ A- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- B- F+ D+ 36% 44% 36% D D+ D B C- C- D- A- D+ B C- C+ A- B- 37% 26% 37% B B- C+ C+ C+ B- D B D+
1.01 56% 41% 29% -3 -1 0.95 26% 1.1 .29 18% .25 79% .20 1.03 60% 37% 29% -3 -1 0.96 29% 1.0 .29 19% .35 69% .17
Nov
3		 Xavier D- A+ A D- A 31% 44% 26% F B D+ C- C- F A+ C- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 16% 29% 56% A A+ D B C A- F C F
0.92 75% 47% 30% +8 -4 1.10 24% 0.8 .20 27% .50 68% .34 0.98 71% 23% 24% -11 -3 0.76 31% 0.9 .28 16% .57 72% .41
Nov
9		 Dartmouth D+ B B D- C+ 33% 27% 40% F+ C D+ B C F F A+ F A+ A- B- A+ A+ 43% 14% 43% D- A+ C- B C+ A+ F B+ F
1.03 65% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 18% .08 80% .07 0.77 47% 33% 16% -17 +1 0.70 26% 1.0 .26 27% .53 68% .36
Nov
16		 Harvard F F B+ D+ F+ 42% 19% 40% C F+ D F F F B F+ C+ A A+ A+ F+ A+ 49% 13% 38% F+ A+ C+ C- C A F B- F
0.86 40% 44% 32% -8 0 0.88 26% 0.7 .17 24% .31 67% .21 0.89 37% 20% 40% -9 +2 0.87 25% 1.0 .25 24% .48 78% .37
Nov
21		 Army D+ C+ A- F D- 40% 24% 36% C- D- A- D B- C+ F A+ F C+ F D A- D 30% 17% 53% A- D+ D- A+ A+ C F F F
1.14 64% 46% 25% -1 0 1.00 39% 1.1 .42 14% .21 92% .19 0.98 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 34% 0.3 .11 18% .33 78% .26
Nov
25		 Lehigh C C+ A+ B- B 33% 25% 42% D B- D D D B+ D+ B- C- A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ 38% 30% 32% B- A+ C+ F D- F D A+ C
1.15 59% 54% 36% +6 -1 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 13% .29 76% .22 0.81 50% 38% 6% -17 -1 0.66 20% 1.4 .27 13% .31 61% .19
Dec
5		 Mount St. Mary's F C D- D+ D+ 34% 32% 34% D- D D- A+ C+ F F A+ D- A+ A+ A+ A A+ 47% 11% 42% D A+ F+ A- C A+ F A+ D
0.89 56% 33% 31% -4 -2 0.91 23% 1.4 .32 27% .25 85% .21 0.78 43% 20% 26% -14 +2 0.78 34% 0.9 .29 29% .42 57% .24
Dec
7		 Manhattan F C+ B F F 35% 15% 50% C+ F C- C- D+ C- C- F D+ A B B- D+ C 35% 33% 33% A- C+ A A+ A+ B F B F
1.06 62% 44% 27% -3 0 0.97 36% 1.1 .38 16% .24 67% .16 0.90 50% 35% 35% -3 -2 0.92 20% 0.5 .10 19% .39 75% .29
Dec
13		 Bryant C+ A- D C+ B- 52% 25% 23% D+ C+ D C D+ D- B+ A+ A+ D F F F F 33% 12% 55% C F A A+ A+ B- D A- C-
1.19 68% 33% 36% +5 0 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 16% .36 95% .35 1.08 69% 50% 41% +11 +1 1.24 21% 0.3 .07 23% .30 69% .21
Dec
16		 Georgia Tech B F+ C A B 24% 35% 41% F C+ B- A+ A+ B- D F F F F F F F 34% 44% 22% A+ F F B+ D A- C- F+ D
1.11 46% 37% 41% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.5 .49 15% .24 50% .12 1.27 71% 45% 73% +20 -3 1.36 42% 1.0 .42 22% .32 76% .24
Dec
21		 Stony Brook D+ D+ C- D D 35% 23% 42% D+ D D A+ B- A- D- B+ D+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 22% 31% 47% A+ A+ A- A+ A B F A+ D+
1.06 56% 33% 32% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.2 .32 12% .24 79% .19 0.77 45% 27% 26% -12 -2 0.73 22% 0.7 .15 20% .34 61% .21
Dec
29		 Quinnipiac F D+ F F F 50% 23% 27% C F C- B- C+ F F B+ F A- A+ B- B+ A 31% 33% 35% A A F C- F A F B+ D-
0.85 54% 25% 14% -13 +1 0.77 32% 1.1 .34 22% .17 78% .13 0.94 40% 31% 29% -10 -2 0.77 40% 1.1 .43 22% .37 65% .24
Jan
2		 St. Peter's F F B+ F F 42% 24% 34% D+ F F F F C+ C A+ A- B- B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A C F F C- F D F
0.85 33% 42% 18% -18 0 0.66 24% 0.8 .18 19% .41 87% .36 1.00 50% 20% 21% -15 0 0.71 35% 1.3 .45 17% .49 79% .39
Jan
4		 Iona B- D A+ F F+ 39% 18% 43% C D- D A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ 43% 25% 33% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C-
1.18 54% 55% 23% -6 0 0.92 29% 1.7 .50 8% .23 87% .20 0.54 53% 30% 8% -17 0 0.68 14% 0.6 .08 34% .36 53% .19
Jan
9		 Sacred Heart B- A A+ F C 40% 21% 38% D+ C C+ A+ A C C- C C D+ C- A+ D D+ 37% 11% 52% F+ D+ F C- F B+ F F F
1.20 74% 50% 28% +5 0 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 14% .26 71% .18 1.13 59% 20% 38% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.1 .38 22% .44 86% .38
Jan
11		 Rider D- D+ D A+ C- 48% 20% 32% D+ D+ F F F C F A+ F A+ F A A+ B 31% 58% 11% A+ A- A+ F B+ C+ F A+ D-
1.07 56% 36% 44% +4 +1 1.11 23% 0.5 .11 14% .10 83% .09 0.74 64% 27% 0% -10 -5 0.71 9% 2.3 .20 18% .39 57% .22
Jan
17		 Fairfield B- A+ B- A+ A 27% 38% 36% F B B+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 32% 38% A A+ C F F+ C- F C- F
1.23 75% 41% 44% +11 -3 1.18 37% 1.4 .52 20% .39 81% .32 1.01 53% 38% 16% -12 -2 0.74 33% 1.2 .40 15% .48 70% .34
Jan
19		 Merrimack F D D- F F 41% 27% 32% D+ F F+ C D- D+ A A+ A+ C F F A+ F+ 39% 24% 37% A D A+ C A B F D+ F
0.85 50% 33% 14% -14 -1 0.73 32% 1.0 .32 20% .43 86% .37 1.05 69% 60% 20% +2 0 1.05 13% 1.0 .13 19% .51 81% .42
Jan
22		 Siena F F C+ D- F 31% 29% 39% D- F F F F B+ F A F D+ A- B+ F C+ 26% 53% 21% A+ B+ B- F F F+ C+ F F+
0.83 44% 40% 30% -6 -2 0.86 9% 0.7 .06 13% .10 80% .08 1.14 50% 36% 40% -1 -5 0.89 28% 2.0 .55 13% .27 100% .27
Jan
24		 Quinnipiac C A- A+ D- B+ 45% 28% 28% D+ B F A+ D C- C+ B- C+ B- B B B+ B+ 51% 18% 31% F B- B- A+ A+ F D+ D+ D+
1.07 67% 46% 31% +5 0 1.11 15% 1.8 .27 18% .30 75% .22 0.97 50% 30% 29% -8 +1 0.89 29% 0.7 .20 11% .30 72% .22
Jan
30		 Canisius B A+ A C- A 44% 25% 31% D+ A D+ F F+ D A+ A+ A+ F F D- D F 38% 13% 48% F F F+ F F D F A F
1.19 81% 50% 33% +13 0 1.27 29% 0.8 .21 18% .46 82% .38 1.16 65% 43% 36% +5 +1 1.13 33% 1.1 .36 18% .43 62% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Niagara F C- C F F 31% 44% 24% F F F A+ F B C- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ 44% 24% 31% B A+ F A+ C+ A C A C+
0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24 0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15
Feb
5		 Rider A B B- A+ A+ 48% 19% 33% D+ A+ C+ D C- D+ F A+ D B A- D A+ B+ 35% 37% 28% B- B+ F B+ D+ B- A- A+ A+
1.37 65% 44% 63% +19 +1 1.42 36% 0.9 .32 15% .16 100% .16 0.88 44% 41% 15% -12 -2 0.74 41% 0.8 .32 19% .19 44% .08
Feb
7		 Fairfield F+ F A+ F+ F 48% 17% 35% C F B D- C F D+ A+ B- B- F C- A+ C- 27% 21% 52% B- C A C+ B+ D C F C-
0.98 43% 50% 29% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.9 .32 20% .26 92% .24 1.03 77% 40% 24% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 13% .24 77% .19
Feb
12		 Merrimack F F F F F 47% 23% 30% C+ F F+ A+ B- C- F C F+ F F F F F 40% 14% 46% C F A+ A+ A+ D F A+ C-
0.85 36% 27% 21% -18 0 0.66 33% 1.4 .45 20% .26 71% .19 1.22 75% 57% 39% +13 +1 1.30 14% 0.5 .07 14% .44 64% .28
Feb
15		 Siena F D F F F 34% 28% 38% D F C- F+ D A+ A C+ A C+ F+ F A+ F 42% 36% 22% B- F A+ A- A+ B+ D A+ C
0.97 53% 29% 21% -12 -1 0.76 30% 0.8 .23 11% .38 73% .27 1.03 68% 63% 20% +8 -2 1.16 19% 0.8 .15 20% .33 65% .21
Feb
20		 Manhattan A- B- A+ A+ A 36% 30% 34% F+ B+ C+ A+ A C+ B A- B+ C- C- F A+ C+ 35% 26% 39% B- C+ F F F B- F C+ F
1.31 65% 57% 44% +13 -1 1.26 38% 1.4 .54 14% .29 81% .24 1.09 56% 50% 22% -4 -1 0.91 35% 1.5 .55 17% .41 77% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 13.2 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 28.9 30.5 3rd
4th 0.1 12.2 14.6 26.9 4th
5th 5.1 23.2 28.3 5th
6th 1.2 1.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 6.4 36.9 56.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 56.7% 18.3% 18.3% 14.4 0.7 5.2 4.3 0.1 46.3
12-8 36.9% 15.5% 15.5% 15.1 0.0 0.8 3.5 1.3 31.2
11-9 6.4% 10.7% 10.7% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 5.7
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 14.7 83.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.3% 100.0% 14.4 6.5 50.4 41.7 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 15.5%
Lose Out 1.8%