Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#157
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#162
Pace67.0#250
Improvement-1.2#259

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#289
First Shot-5.3#325
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#117
Layup/Dunks-2.7#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#252
Freethrows-3.6#347
Improvement+2.0#53

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#59
First Shot+2.3#108
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#30
Layups/Dunks-0.6#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#30
Freethrows-1.8#301
Improvement-3.1#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.1% 29.2% 20.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 98.2% 99.5% 97.3%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 99.1% 95.5%
Conference Champion 33.6% 51.3% 21.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round23.9% 29.1% 20.4%
Second Round1.0% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Away) - 40.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 5
Quad 418 - 421 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 97 @Xavier L 62-66 22%     0 - 1 +4.5 -3.6 +8.0
  Sun, Nov 9 247 @Dartmouth W 75-56 58%     1 - 1 +17.1 -0.9 +17.2
  Sun, Nov 16 192 Harvard L 54-56 70%     1 - 2 -7.1 -14.9 +7.6
  Fri, Nov 21 331 Army W 76-65 89%     2 - 2 -2.3 +0.7 -2.4
  Tue, Nov 25 315 Lehigh W 78-55 87%     3 - 2 +11.0 +2.5 +9.3
  Fri, Dec 5 300 Mount St. Mary's W 64-56 84%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -2.6 -14.2 +11.5
  Sun, Dec 7 313 Manhattan W 80-68 87%     5 - 2 2 - 0 +0.2 -7.2 +6.5
  Sat, Dec 13 311 @Bryant W 82-74 72%     6 - 2 +2.2 +9.4 -7.0
  Tue, Dec 16 129 @Georgia Tech L 76-87 32%     6 - 3 -6.0 +9.6 -15.8
  Sun, Dec 21 246 Stony Brook W 70-51 78%     7 - 3 +11.1 -1.8 +14.0
  Mon, Dec 29 160 @Quinnipiac L 69-72 40%    
  Fri, Jan 2 297 @St. Peter's W 66-61 66%    
  Sun, Jan 4 165 Iona W 74-70 63%    
  Fri, Jan 9 250 @Sacred Heart W 71-69 58%    
  Sun, Jan 11 344 @Rider W 67-58 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 277 Fairfield W 73-63 81%    
  Mon, Jan 19 263 Merrimack W 68-59 79%    
  Thu, Jan 22 179 @Siena L 65-66 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 160 Quinnipiac W 72-69 62%    
  Fri, Jan 30 347 @Canisius W 67-58 81%    
  Sun, Feb 1 352 @Niagara W 69-59 83%    
  Thu, Feb 5 344 Rider W 70-55 91%    
  Sat, Feb 7 277 @Fairfield W 70-66 63%    
  Thu, Feb 12 263 @Merrimack W 65-62 60%    
  Sun, Feb 15 179 Siena W 68-63 66%    
  Fri, Feb 20 313 @Manhattan W 75-69 71%    
  Sun, Feb 22 250 Sacred Heart W 74-66 77%    
  Sun, Mar 1 297 St. Peter's W 69-58 82%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.1 8.4 9.7 6.6 3.1 0.7 33.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 5.0 7.5 5.6 1.6 0.1 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.6 6.5 3.6 0.8 0.1 16.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.5 4.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.8 0.1 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.7 8.8 12.1 14.9 15.6 14.8 11.3 6.8 3.1 0.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 3.1    3.1 0.0
18-2 97.9% 6.6    6.1 0.6 0.0
17-3 85.2% 9.7    7.1 2.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 56.7% 8.4    4.2 3.4 0.7 0.1
15-5 26.2% 4.1    1.3 1.8 0.8 0.2
14-6 6.5% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.6% 33.6 22.5 8.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 48.2% 48.2% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
19-1 3.1% 43.3% 43.3% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7
18-2 6.8% 42.8% 42.8% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.1 3.9
17-3 11.3% 36.1% 36.1% 13.8 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 7.2
16-4 14.8% 30.2% 30.2% 14.1 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.2 0.1 10.3
15-5 15.6% 26.3% 26.3% 14.4 0.3 1.8 1.9 0.1 11.5
14-6 14.9% 20.7% 20.7% 14.7 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.3 11.8
13-7 12.1% 16.4% 16.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.4 10.1
12-8 8.8% 11.9% 11.9% 15.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 7.7
11-9 5.7% 7.7% 7.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 5.2
10-10 3.3% 6.3% 6.3% 15.6 0.1 0.1 3.1
9-11 1.8% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 1.7
8-12 0.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.1% 24.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.1 0.9 4.5 9.3 7.6 1.7 76.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.8 27.4 63.2 8.4 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%