NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -14.5 352
Results Rating -13.4 346
Consistency 0.14 120
Pace 66.8 225
Improvement -1.5 244

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 329 D- D+ D+ C C-
Defense F+ 354 F D C+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 114 D- 50% 343 -1.8 247
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 22 D 34% 313 +0.6 142
Three Pointers 34% 320 C- 32% 248 -4.3 321
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 235 D- -5.1 339
1st FG Attempt D- 0.91 335
Second Chance D+ 27.7% 255 D+ 0.98 261 D+ 0.27 268
Opponents' Steals C- 9.8% 226
Other Turnovers D 8.3% 309
Turnovers D+ 18.1% 275
Freethrows C 0.30 187 C+ 74% 147 C 0.22 162
Total Offense D -6.5 329

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 135 F 16.8% 360
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 38% 33 B- 3.8% 94
Three Pointers D 78% 307 C+ 0.7% 133
Total C 55% 185 F 8.1% 353


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 228 F 68% 360 +2.8 277
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 339 D 42% 311 -1.6 57
Three Pointers 47% 23 F+ 38% 350 +6.5 360
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 285 F +6.9 361
1st FG Attempt F 1.18 363
Second Chance F 38.6% 364 B- 0.96 65 D 0.37 314
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.5% 112
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 150
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 107
Freethrows C 0.30 180 C 73% 204 C 0.22 175
Total Defense F+ -8.0 354

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 54% 301 C- 9.6% 223
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 30% 276 C 4.7% 186
Three Pointers D 89% 326 C+ 1.3% 88
Total D- 64% 340 C- 4.9% 227

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 249 17.3 179
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 135 0.26 363
Consistency 0.13 260 0.11 86
Improvement +1.1 128 -2.6 301

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 356 353 348
Results Rating Rank 352 351 343
Conference Record 8 - 6 8 - 6 8 - 6
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 7% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four3% 7% 0%
First Round1% 2% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 49 - 99 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 36 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0% 0 - 1 F -32 D- -7 C- C- F F -23 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 21 @Virginia L 62 - 81 0% -19  0% 0 - 2 C +1 B- +4 D C+ B D -5 C- F+ A-
 Sun, Nov 9 187 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 8% -16  0% 0 - 3 F -21 F -14 F F+ F+ F+ -8 B F D-
 Fri, Nov 14 29 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0% 0 - 4 F -26 F -14 F D- B F -11 C- F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 78 @Dayton L 55 - 74 2% -19  2% 0 - 5 D -9 F+ -10 F A+ F C +0 B- C+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 306 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 20% -10  3% 0 - 6 F -21 D- -7 F C- B F -14 F C- A
 Wed, Dec 3 208 @James Madison L 62 - 67 9% -4  12% 0 - 7 C- -4 D- -8 F+ C+ F B- +3 A B D+
 Sat, Dec 6 289 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 35% +1  57% 0 - 8 F -25 F -29 F F D B +4 B- D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 24 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0% 0 - 9 F+ -17 C- -1 C C- C- F -15 F C D
 Sat, Dec 20 261 Longwood L 72 - 74 28% -2  24% 0 - 10 D -10 D- -7 F D B- C- -3 D+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 123 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 4% -8  23% 0 - 11 F+ -17 D -6 C+ A+ F F -12 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 316 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 42% +3  78% 1 - 11 1 - 0 D -11 F+ -9 D- F D- C -1 C+ B C
 Sat, Jan 10 362 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 54% -3  35% 2 - 11 2 - 0 C- -5 A +14 D+ A B+ F -18 F B D
 Mon, Jan 12 348 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 36% +4  79% 3 - 11 3 - 0 C +0 B+ +9 A+ F C+ F+ -9 F B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 189 Howard L 69 - 83 18% -5  23% 3 - 12 3 - 1 F -19 D -5 B- F D+ F -14 D+ F D+
 Mon, Feb 2 350 Maryland Eastern Shore W 65 - 63 60% +4  89% 4 - 12 4 - 1 F+ -15 D- -7 A F D+ D- -7 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 316 @Norfolk St. L 68 - 75 22% -3  18% 4 - 13 4 - 2 D- -14 F -12 D+ F F C -1 D- F A+
 Mon, Feb 9 361 Delaware St. W 72 - 63 74% +0  50% 5 - 13 5 - 2 D- -12 B- +5 C+ C+ A+ F -16 F F A-
 Sat, Feb 14 362 Coppin St. L 56 - 58 75% +2  69% 5 - 14 5 - 3 F -24 F -20 F D B D+ -3 D+ B+ F
 Mon, Feb 16 348 Morgan St. W 80 - 76 59% +11  90% 6 - 14 6 - 3 D- -13 D- -8 D B+ F D -5 D+ C+ B-
 Wed, Feb 18 357 @South Carolina St. L 72 - 85 43% -5  6% 6 - 15 6 - 4 F -26 D -4 C- F D+ F -22 F A F
 Sat, Feb 21 189 @Howard L 67 - 100 8% -17  0% 6 - 16 6 - 5 F -32 D -6 F A+ C- F -25 F F D+
 Sat, Feb 28 361 @Delaware St. W 74 - 60 52% +2  46% 7 - 16 7 - 5 C -1 B +6 D A+ A- D -6 F F+ A+
 Mon, Mar 2 350 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 77 - 73 37% -3  32% 8 - 16 8 - 5 D+ -7 C +1 B F D+ F+ -8 F F A+
 Thu, Mar 5 357 South Carolina St. L 64 - 80 66% -7  0% 8 - 17 8 - 6 F -35 F -19 F F C- F -16 F B+ F+
 Thu, Mar 12 350 Maryland Eastern Shore L 66 - 67 48%
Totals 8 - 18 8 - 6 -14 D -7 C+ D- C- F+ -8 C- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D C- D- 41% 58% 34% C- D- D+ D+ D+ D+ C C+ C F+ F D F+ F 37% 15% 47% D+ F F B- D C+ C C C
0.99 50% 34% 32% -5 0 0.91 28% 1.0 .27 18% .30 74% .22 1.20 68% 42% 38% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.0 .37 18% .30 73% .22
Nov
3		 North Carolina St. D- B D+ F C- 37% 21% 42% D+ C- D- A- C- F A+ D- A+ F F A+ F F 26% 9% 64% B- F F F F C F A- F
0.89 63% 33% 28% -3 0 0.95 21% 1.1 .24 25% .51 64% .33 1.57 93% 20% 44% +17 +1 1.38 45% 1.4 .65 12% .47 70% .33
Nov
7		 Virginia B- F F A+ D- 43% 29% 29% C+ D A F+ C+ B A+ A A+ D F A+ D D 22% 15% 63% A C- F B+ F+ A- F+ A+ C+
0.99 33% 21% 43% -12 -1 0.78 36% 0.7 .25 14% .41 82% .33 1.29 80% 29% 38% +7 0 1.15 53% 1.0 .53 19% .37 58% .22
Nov
9		 Appalachian St. F F F F+ F 44% 13% 44% B+ F F C+ F+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C- A- A B+ 33% 15% 52% C B D+ F F D- F F F
0.84 38% 17% 29% -15 +1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 17% .38 90% .34 1.18 60% 29% 25% -8 0 0.87 33% 1.6 .55 12% .52 72% .37
Nov
14		 North Carolina F F F D+ F 31% 28% 41% C F C+ F D- B A+ C A+ F F D+ C- C- 33% 15% 52% C C- F F F B- F D- F
0.76 24% 20% 32% -17 -1 0.65 26% 0.5 .13 13% .33 70% .23 1.38 75% 43% 36% +8 0 1.19 43% 1.5 .64 14% .58 74% .43
Nov
22		 Dayton F+ D+ F F F 38% 38% 24% D- F C- A+ A+ F D+ A+ B- C F+ D+ A B- 31% 15% 54% B+ B- D- A C+ F A A+ A+
0.83 53% 12% 27% -14 -2 0.69 26% 1.9 .50 27% .27 85% .23 1.12 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 11% .32 58% .19
Nov
25		 South Carolina Upstate D- F F C+ F 51% 20% 29% C+ F B+ F C- B A+ B A+ F F A- F F 48% 16% 36% F+ F F A C- A F D F
0.97 36% 20% 36% -14 +1 0.76 37% 0.9 .35 13% .54 75% .40 1.19 71% 29% 50% +14 +1 1.32 39% 0.8 .29 23% .49 73% .36
Dec
3		 James Madison D- F F D F 42% 17% 42% B- F+ C- A C+ F F+ C+ D- B- A+ A C+ A+ 38% 10% 53% D A D+ A+ B D+ F C+ F
0.97 45% 25% 30% -10 +1 0.83 27% 1.2 .33 17% .28 73% .21 1.05 40% 25% 33% -9 +1 0.88 32% 0.8 .26 16% .60 69% .41
Dec
6		 N.C. A&T F F F F F 46% 21% 33% B- F D- F F D A+ B A+ B B- D- A+ B+ 38% 23% 40% D- B- F+ B- D+ A+ F B- F
0.75 45% 20% 13% -20 +1 0.63 21% 0.4 .09 15% .49 73% .36 0.96 53% 44% 25% -6 0 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 29% .69 71% .49
Dec
9		 Kentucky C- B F+ D C 35% 33% 33% D+ C D- A C- C- C B+ C+ F F F D- F 40% 11% 49% D- F A+ F C D A+ F B+
0.93 61% 29% 29% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.0 .19 18% .29 76% .22 1.43 87% 50% 39% +17 +1 1.39 27% 1.6 .42 13% .22 93% .21
Dec
20		 Longwood D- A+ F F F 40% 23% 36% D F D- D+ D B- A+ A+ A+ C- D- F A+ C- 38% 18% 44% D D+ F C+ F A+ F B F
1.02 84% 27% 12% -4 0 0.94 23% 0.9 .19 17% .51 80% .41 1.04 65% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 44% 0.9 .42 25% .45 71% .32
Dec
29		 Penn St. D A+ C D+ B- 36% 30% 34% D- C+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F F F F F F F 31% 10% 60% C- F C A+ A+ B- A+ D+ A
0.98 75% 38% 33% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.7 .71 34% .15 57% .09 1.32 81% 60% 45% +19 +1 1.42 28% 0.8 .21 16% .23 77% .17
Jan
3		 Norfolk St. F+ B F F D- 50% 14% 36% C+ D- A+ F F D- A D B+ C B F A+ C+ 43% 26% 32% D+ C+ F A+ B C D+ B- C-
1.03 68% 29% 22% -3 +2 1.00 45% 0.3 .14 19% .46 68% .31 1.00 50% 50% 27% -4 0 0.94 40% 0.6 .24 18% .36 65% .24
Jan
10		 Coppin St. A F F+ A+ C 27% 32% 41% F D+ D- A+ A B+ A+ B- A+ F C F F F 27% 38% 35% A+ F C A B D A F B+
1.35 45% 31% 53% +6 -2 1.10 30% 1.9 .56 14% .64 78% .50 1.18 54% 44% 65% +18 -3 1.31 29% 0.8 .21 20% .23 75% .17
Jan
12		 Morgan St. B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 64% 20% 16% C A+ F F F C+ A+ B+ A+ F+ F A F F 33% 27% 40% C F D- A+ B+ D+ F B+ F
1.30 68% 67% 57% +18 +2 1.41 17% 0.8 .13 13% .55 76% .42 1.14 73% 25% 39% +5 -1 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 16% .57 70% .40
Jan
17		 Howard D D- A+ B- B 41% 12% 47% C+ B- D+ F F D+ D- F F F F F A+ D+ 48% 12% 40% D- D+ F F+ F D+ A- C B+
1.01 50% 67% 35% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.7 .22 20% .27 60% .16 1.21 64% 50% 24% -2 +2 1.02 46% 1.2 .57 19% .27 73% .20
Feb
2		 Maryland Eastern Shore D- A+ A+ B A+ 43% 14% 43% B- A D- F F D+ D+ F F+ D- A+ C+ F F 44% 21% 36% D F F F F A+ C B+ C+
1.05 74% 50% 37% +10 +1 1.25 27% 0.1 .03 18% .31 63% .20 1.02 41% 38% 57% +5 0 1.13 46% 1.3 .58 36% .23 67% .15
Feb
7		 Norfolk St. F F A+ D D+ 45% 24% 31% D D+ F F F F F A F C C- F B D+ 55% 7% 38% F D- F C F A+ F F F
0.95 48% 67% 31% +1 0 1.04 21% 0.8 .18 22% .25 79% .20 1.05 57% 67% 31% 0 +3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 28% .52 78% .41
Feb
9		 Delaware St. B- C+ A C- C+ 56% 24% 20% C- C+ A- F C+ A+ C- B+ C+ F F F C+ F 27% 41% 32% A F F F F A- D- D- F+
1.23 64% 45% 33% +5 +1 1.13 40% 1.0 .40 12% .33 76% .25 1.08 64% 47% 31% +4 -4 1.02 41% 1.0 .41 24% .34 73% .25
Feb
14		 Coppin St. F F F F F 37% 22% 41% D F C F+ D B F F F D+ D+ F A+ C 47% 8% 45% F D+ C A+ B+ F A A+ A+
0.90 37% 27% 29% -14 0 0.75 35% 1.0 .35 14% .17 44% .07 0.93 58% 50% 22% -7 +2 0.92 28% 0.7 .19 14% .22 50% .11
Feb
16		 Morgan St. D- F C+ A+ D+ 48% 22% 30% D D C- A+ B+ F B- A+ A- D B A+ F D+ 41% 21% 38% F+ D+ F A+ C+ B- F+ C+ D-
1.10 41% 40% 50% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 22% .44 80% .35 1.04 48% 17% 43% -4 0 0.95 47% 0.5 .23 19% .39 74% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
18		 South Carolina St. D D A- A- C 39% 22% 39% F+ C- D- F+ F D+ B F D F F C- F F 34% 26% 40% D- F B A+ A F B F D-
1.08 56% 50% 39% +4 0 1.11 31% 1.0 .31 18% .44 58% .26 1.27 76% 38% 50% +16 -1 1.32 25% 0.7 .17 13% .29 88% .26
Feb
21		 Howard D D D F F 55% 20% 25% C+ F C+ A+ A+ C- C F D- F F A+ F F 48% 12% 40% D- F F D F D+ C- C- C-
0.94 54% 30% 8% -14 +1 0.76 34% 1.9 .66 20% .33 58% .19 1.40 79% 17% 55% +20 +2 1.46 43% 1.2 .50 18% .34 75% .26
Feb
28		 Delaware St. B F F A+ D 39% 24% 37% D- D D- A+ A+ A- F A+ C- D F D C- F 38% 22% 40% F F F B+ F+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.20 44% 18% 53% 0 0 1.02 26% 2.1 .56 15% .25 92% .23 0.98 65% 40% 33% +3 0 1.07 44% 0.6 .26 26% .13 50% .07
Mar
2		 Maryland Eastern Shore C F A+ A+ B 42% 13% 44% B- B F D F D+ A+ B- A+ F+ F F D F 41% 27% 32% C+ F F C F A+ B+ D B
1.13 47% 50% 45% +4 +1 1.13 22% 1.0 .22 18% .52 76% .39 1.07 67% 50% 36% +8 -1 1.16 59% 0.9 .53 34% .18 75% .13
Mar
5		 South Carolina St. F F F F F 40% 15% 45% D F D F F C- A C- A- F D+ A+ F F 40% 19% 40% F F D- A+ B+ F+ F B- F
0.92 47% 14% 24% -15 +1 0.74 33% 0.9 .29 17% .48 71% .35 1.15 58% 22% 53% +8 0 1.19 34% 0.6 .21 17% .48 64% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 100.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6 0.0%
7-7
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6 100.0% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 3.5 96.5
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 16.0 96.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 22.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 21.8%
Lose Out 52.7%