NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.6#334
Expected Predictive Rating-13.0#330
Pace72.6#89
Improvement-1.9#301

Offense
Total Offense-8.3#349
First Shot-6.7#332
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#283
Layup/Dunks+0.2#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#313
Freethrows-1.0#247
Improvement+0.7#115

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#302
First Shot-2.0#241
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#301
Layups/Dunks+0.3#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#94
Freethrows-6.3#354
Improvement-2.7#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 5.1% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.0% 11.3% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 42.8% 51.4% 40.0%
Conference Champion 4.1% 5.6% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 11.5% 8.3% 12.6%
First Four3.9% 5.0% 3.5%
First Round1.4% 1.7% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 24.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 48 - 118 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 62   @ Richmond L 60-70 3%     0 - 1 +0.5 -9.0 +9.5
  Nov 13, 2021 34   @ Memphis L 51-90 1%     0 - 2 -24.2 -20.0 +1.6
  Nov 16, 2021 20   @ Iowa L 69-86 1%     0 - 3 -0.1 -1.3 +1.4
  Nov 20, 2021 344   @ Alabama St. L 74-80 OT 42%     0 - 4 -16.5 -14.6 -0.9
  Nov 29, 2021 216   @ Gardner-Webb L 58-83 11%     0 - 5 -24.0 -15.3 -7.7
  Dec 01, 2021 335   @ South Carolina Upstate W 67-65 39%     1 - 5 -7.7 -11.5 +3.9
  Dec 04, 2021 255   @ UNC Asheville L 66-82 16%     1 - 6 -17.8 -11.3 -5.5
  Dec 06, 2021 238   @ The Citadel L 67-80 14%     1 - 7 -14.1 -8.8 -5.1
  Dec 15, 2021 216   Gardner-Webb L 63-71 24%    
  Dec 18, 2021 333   Hampton L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 21, 2021 169   @ UTEP L 59-75 7%    
  Jan 08, 2022 314   Morgan St. L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 10, 2022 306   Coppin St. L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 15, 2022 352   @ South Carolina St. W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 22, 2022 356   @ Delaware St. W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 24, 2022 330   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 29, 2022 274   Howard L 75-78 37%    
  Jan 31, 2022 252   Norfolk St. L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 12, 2022 314   @ Morgan St. L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 14, 2022 306   @ Coppin St. L 70-77 25%    
  Feb 19, 2022 356   Delaware St. W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 21, 2022 330   Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 274   @ Howard L 72-81 20%    
  Feb 28, 2022 252   @ Norfolk St. L 64-75 17%    
  Mar 03, 2022 352   South Carolina St. W 78-71 72%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 6 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 7.7 4.9 0.5 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.4 4.0 9.3 5.7 0.6 0.0 19.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.2 9.2 4.9 0.5 0.0 20.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.6 5.9 2.4 0.3 14.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 6.2 8th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.6 7.4 11.9 15.8 17.1 15.8 12.0 7.9 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
12-2 93.5% 0.6    0.5 0.1
11-3 74.0% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1
10-4 32.9% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0
9-5 5.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0
13-1 0.2% 26.7% 26.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-2 0.6% 20.6% 20.6% 16.0 0.1 0.5
11-3 1.9% 21.9% 21.9% 16.0 0.4 1.5
10-4 4.3% 17.7% 17.7% 16.0 0.8 3.5
9-5 7.9% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.8 7.1
8-6 12.0% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.6 11.4
7-7 15.8% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.6 15.3
6-8 17.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 16.7
5-9 15.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 15.6
4-10 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
3-11 7.4% 7.4
2-12 3.6% 3.6
1-13 1.2% 1.2
0-14 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 16.0 3.9 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%