Roncalli
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #42
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #17
Rushville Regional Rank #2
Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 14th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Joe Harvey Circle City Conference Arabian Round Up Rushville Invitational CougarPalooza Invitational Indiana Catholic Championship RH Flashrock Invitational Ted Fox Invitational Marion County Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rushville Regional
Date 8/21 8/25 8/28 9/8 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16
Team Rating 539 450 820 470 581 637 515 731 730 584 616
Team Adjusted Rating 416 539 470 523 607 515 633 600 584 616
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Joe Harvey Circle City Conference Arabian Round Up Rushville Invitational CougarPalooza Invitational Indiana Catholic Championship RH Flashrock Invitational Ted Fox Invitational Marion County Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rushville Regional
267  Lauren Turk 12 20:35 20:09 19:51 20:57 20:21 20:49 20:29 20:41 20:49
303  Rachel Flick 9 20:44 20:14 20:13 20:25 20:52 20:47 20:40 21:31 21:10
312  Valeria Lara 10 20:46 20:13 20:29 20:35 20:48 20:36 21:03 21:32 20:33 20:55
449  Sara Mcgraw 11 21:15 21:39 22:19 21:30 21:53 22:09 22:13 21:12 20:57 20:53
513  Ashley Flick 12 21:27 20:36 20:42 20:57 21:18 21:33 21:50 21:50 22:38
720  Taylor Turk 10 22:00 21:49 21:55 21:34 21:57 21:25 22:22 22:54 21:55 22:16
1,008  Mandy Sorenson 12 22:34 23:09 22:00 22:11 22:50 22:49 22:20 22:27
1,101  Livia Ianni 12 22:44 23:01 23:05 22:26
1,108  Sophia Ramsay 10 22:45 22:46 22:41 22:32 22:42 22:40 23:08
1,303  Amelia Shirley 10 23:11 25:37 22:49 22:20 23:55 24:10 23:07 22:57 23:07 22:47
Kylie Perkins 12 23:31 23:43 23:13 23:47 23:55 23:24
Michaela Payne 11 23:51 23:37 23:42 23:28 24:28 23:12 24:00 24:08




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 100% 15.2 405 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 5.5 12.4 17.9 16.3 15.7 12.3 9.4 6.9 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.5 90 0.1 56.3 36.7 6.6 0.2
Sectionals 100% 2.5 74 0.1 51.4 41.9 6.6



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.




Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lauren Turk 100% 86.2 0.0 99.4%
Rachel Flick 100% 95.0 98.2%
Valeria Lara 100% 96.4 97.9%
Sara Mcgraw 100% 123.1 66.2%
Ashley Flick 100% 133.4 40.1%
Taylor Turk 100% 154.0 2.6%
Mandy Sorenson 100% 168.6 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lauren Turk 100% 12.9 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.9 3.0 3.7 4.2 5.7 6.1 7.4 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 6.7 5.4 4.4 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.5 100.0%
Rachel Flick 100% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.8 3.1 4.2 5.2 6.8 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.7 7.8 7.8 6.4 5.3 4.8 3.0 2.1 1.9 100.0%
Valeria Lara 100% 16.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.6 2.1 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.8 6.8 7.8 9.0 8.3 8.0 7.9 6.7 4.5 4.1 2.9 2.0 100.0%
Sara Mcgraw 100% 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.6 3.7 4.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.7 100.0%
Ashley Flick 100% 28.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 3.3 4.3 6.6 100.0%
Taylor Turk 100% 35.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Mandy Sorenson 100% 51.8 99.2%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lauren Turk 10.5 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.8 3.1 3.9 5.5 7.5 8.8 11.1 11.9 11.9 11.5 9.4 6.1 3.8 1.6 0.3 0.1
Rachel Flick 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.3 4.0 4.7 6.8 8.7 11.5 12.8 15.1 13.2 10.1 5.0 1.5 0.3
Valeria Lara 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.8 2.8 4.7 6.1 7.8 10.2 12.2 14.7 16.5 11.9 5.8 1.9 0.5 0.1
Sara Mcgraw 17.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.6 11.1 19.5 23.9 19.2 10.6 4.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.1
Ashley Flick 19.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 3.2 7.0 15.1 21.4 22.5 15.2 7.4 3.4 1.4 0.9
Taylor Turk 23.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.9 9.3 14.4 12.7 11.3 9.1
Mandy Sorenson 34.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.1