Mount St. Mary's
Northeast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#282
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#273
Pace62.5#323
Improvement+1.6#98

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#326
First Shot-4.5#308
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#289
Layup/Dunks-5.0#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#262
Freethrows+0.6#132
Improvement-0.5#214

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#201
First Shot+0.7#157
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#312
Layups/Dunks-0.1#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#75
Freethrows-0.1#202
Improvement+2.1#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 5.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 17.1% 23.9% 6.3%
.500 or above in Conference 51.1% 62.3% 32.9%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.1% 4.4%
First Four2.9% 3.8% 1.4%
First Round2.5% 3.3% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 61.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 411 - 812 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 6   @ Villanova L 51-91 1%     0 - 1 -19.6 -5.3 -19.7
  Nov 13, 2021 157   @ Saint Joseph's L 60-80 18%     0 - 2 -17.1 -9.9 -7.5
  Nov 16, 2021 3   @ Kentucky L 55-80 1%     0 - 3 -3.3 -5.5 +0.9
  Nov 19, 2021 306   @ Robert Morris W 74-70 OT 45%     1 - 3 -1.8 -12.5 +10.2
  Nov 22, 2021 84   @ Ohio L 59-73 7%     1 - 4 -4.7 -3.4 -2.6
  Nov 27, 2021 148   Navy L 40-67 30%     1 - 5 -28.7 -29.2 -1.2
  Nov 30, 2021 248   Howard W 72-70 50%     2 - 5 -5.1 -1.5 -3.5
  Dec 04, 2021 259   @ Loyola Maryland L 55-61 33%     2 - 6 -8.6 -12.6 +3.4
  Dec 07, 2021 95   @ Santa Clara L 77-88 8%     2 - 7 -2.6 +4.0 -6.2
  Dec 11, 2021 330   American L 66-72 OT 74%     2 - 8 -19.7 -15.8 -3.7
  Dec 18, 2021 326   Morgan St. W 74-60 73%     3 - 8 +0.6 -3.0 +4.0
  Jan 06, 2022 235   @ LIU Brooklyn L 57-74 30%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -18.5 -16.4 -1.9
  Jan 08, 2022 328   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 69-61 56%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -0.5 -3.5 +3.6
  Jan 15, 2022 227   @ Bryant L 66-73 27%     4 - 10 1 - 2 -7.7 -8.6 +1.0
  Jan 17, 2022 289   @ Merrimack W 57-50 42%     5 - 10 2 - 2 +2.0 -4.3 +7.6
  Jan 21, 2022 284   Sacred Heart W 67-64 62%    
  Jan 23, 2022 343   Central Connecticut St. W 68-60 80%    
  Jan 27, 2022 341   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 69-66 58%    
  Jan 29, 2022 301   St. Francis (PA) W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 03, 2022 289   Merrimack W 58-55 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 227   Bryant L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 10, 2022 127   @ Wagner L 58-70 12%    
  Feb 12, 2022 301   @ St. Francis (PA) L 64-65 43%    
  Feb 17, 2022 328   St. Francis Brooklyn W 68-61 74%    
  Feb 19, 2022 235   LIU Brooklyn L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 24, 2022 284   @ Sacred Heart L 64-66 40%    
  Feb 26, 2022 343   @ Central Connecticut St. W 66-63 60%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.6 0.7 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.3 5.4 1.3 0.1 15.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 9.2 7.2 1.5 0.0 20.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 9.6 7.4 1.3 0.0 20.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 7.2 6.2 0.9 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.6 4.3 0.7 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.5 9.3 14.5 19.0 19.5 15.7 9.9 4.5 1.3 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 89.0% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 39.1% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 10.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 19.5% 19.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 1.3% 16.8% 16.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
12-6 4.5% 14.1% 14.1% 15.8 0.1 0.5 3.9
11-7 9.9% 11.3% 11.3% 15.9 0.1 1.1 8.8
10-8 15.7% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 1.3 14.4
9-9 19.5% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.6 18.9
8-10 19.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 19.0
7-11 14.5% 14.5
6-12 9.3% 9.3
5-13 4.5% 4.5
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.6 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.0%