St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#92
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#103
Pace81.3#4
Improvement-0.8#208

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#70
First Shot+2.6#98
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#73
Layup/Dunks+3.9#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#221
Freethrows-0.8#247
Improvement-1.7#281

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#106
First Shot+2.5#92
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#199
Layups/Dunks+2.5#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#255
Freethrows+1.2#96
Improvement+1.0#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 6.7% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.1% 5.6% 1.7%
Average Seed 10.3 10.0 10.6
.500 or above 50.2% 68.1% 40.0%
.500 or above in Conference 11.8% 21.7% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 2.2% 7.7%
First Four1.0% 1.5% 0.7%
First Round3.4% 5.9% 2.0%
Second Round1.4% 2.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Home) - 36.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 12
Quad 22 - 24 - 14
Quad 34 - 19 - 16
Quad 47 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 357   Mississippi Valley W 119-61 99%     1 - 0 +34.0 +14.1 +10.3
  Nov 13, 2021 205   St. Peter's W 91-70 84%     2 - 0 +16.5 +15.4 -0.3
  Nov 17, 2021 27   @ Indiana L 74-76 20%     2 - 1 +13.1 +8.5 +4.7
  Nov 20, 2021 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 87-74 96%     3 - 1 -1.7 -0.8 -2.0
  Nov 23, 2021 328   St. Francis Brooklyn W 76-70 96%     4 - 1 -7.6 -5.6 -2.1
  Nov 27, 2021 305   NJIT W 77-68 OT 93%     5 - 1 -1.8 -11.2 +8.0
  Dec 03, 2021 7   Kansas L 75-95 19%     5 - 2 -4.7 +2.0 -5.2
  Dec 05, 2021 215   Fordham W 83-69 85%     6 - 2 +9.1 +3.9 +3.9
  Dec 09, 2021 137   Monmouth W 88-83 75%     7 - 2 +4.1 +5.2 -1.6
  Dec 12, 2021 129   Colgate W 82-64 73%     8 - 2 +18.0 +5.6 +12.1
  Dec 18, 2021 139   Pittsburgh L 57-59 75%     8 - 3 -3.0 -14.1 +11.1
  Jan 05, 2022 94   DePaul W 89-84 61%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +8.5 +5.6 +2.2
  Jan 08, 2022 44   @ Providence L 73-83 26%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +2.8 +1.4 +2.2
  Jan 12, 2022 18   @ Connecticut L 78-86 OT 17%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +8.3 +4.4 +4.8
  Jan 16, 2022 155   Georgetown W 88-69 78%     10 - 5 2 - 2 +17.0 +10.1 +6.4
  Jan 19, 2022 45   @ Creighton L 64-87 27%     10 - 6 2 - 3 -10.3 -4.8 -4.4
  Jan 22, 2022 23   Seton Hall L 79-83 36%    
  Jan 24, 2022 23   @ Seton Hall L 76-85 18%    
  Jan 29, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 63-77 9%    
  Feb 01, 2022 44   Providence L 73-75 46%    
  Feb 05, 2022 118   @ Butler W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 08, 2022 6   Villanova L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 13, 2022 18   Connecticut L 73-78 34%    
  Feb 16, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 74-84 17%    
  Feb 18, 2022 118   Butler W 72-67 71%    
  Feb 21, 2022 155   @ Georgetown W 83-80 60%    
  Feb 23, 2022 45   Creighton L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 27, 2022 94   @ DePaul L 80-82 40%    
  Mar 02, 2022 19   Xavier L 77-82 34%    
  Mar 05, 2022 37   @ Marquette L 76-83 25%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 2.7 0.8 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.5 5.0 0.7 0.0 14.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 7.1 12.6 7.8 1.6 0.0 31.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 6.4 9.0 4.2 0.5 0.0 21.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 4.4 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 12.9 10th
11th 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 11th
Total 0.4 2.3 6.9 13.2 18.0 19.4 16.0 11.9 6.9 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 75.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 70.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 14.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 94.8% 1.7% 93.1% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.7%
13-7 0.4% 83.8% 10.6% 73.1% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 81.9%
12-8 1.3% 68.7% 4.8% 63.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 67.2%
11-9 3.0% 31.6% 2.5% 29.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.1 29.8%
10-10 6.9% 12.8% 1.9% 10.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.0 11.1%
9-11 11.9% 3.1% 2.0% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.5 1.1%
8-12 16.0% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 15.8 0.1%
7-13 19.4% 0.6% 0.6% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 19.3
6-14 18.0% 0.4% 0.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.9
5-15 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 13.2
4-16 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-17 2.3% 2.3
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.0% 0.9% 3.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.0 3.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%