American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#242
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#207
Pace72.6#101
Improvement+1.3#89

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#251
First Shot+1.6#134
After Offensive Rebound-4.7#358
Layup/Dunks-1.3#227
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#44
Freethrows+0.9#125
Improvement+0.9#103

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#221
First Shot-4.1#308
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#41
Layups/Dunks-4.3#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#78
Freethrows-3.3#338
Improvement+0.4#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 20.1% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 69.0% 88.2% 68.1%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 86.7% 76.6%
Conference Champion 17.6% 26.2% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.8% 3.3%
First Four3.8% 2.6% 3.9%
First Round12.3% 18.5% 12.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 4.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 416 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 50 @Wake Forest L 74-88 5%     0 - 1 -0.2 +2.5 -1.7
  Sun, Nov 9 253 Penn W 84-78 64%     1 - 1 -2.3 -2.0 -0.8
  Wed, Nov 12 80 @George Washington L 67-107 9%     1 - 2 -29.7 -9.1 -17.6
  Tue, Nov 18 125 @Rutgers L 71-80 17%     1 - 3 -3.5 +1.1 -4.5
  Fri, Nov 28 316 Maine W 74-61 75%     2 - 3 +1.3 +3.4 -1.4
  Sat, Nov 29 155 Siena L 55-59 44%     2 - 4 -7.0 -17.9 +10.9
  Sun, Nov 30 291 Longwood W 92-66 70%     3 - 4 +15.9 +11.1 +4.0
  Wed, Dec 3 269 Drexel W 75-73 65%     4 - 4 -6.7 +2.0 -8.6
  Sat, Dec 6 343 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-60 83%     5 - 4 +3.2 +9.9 -4.5
  Thu, Dec 18 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 66-85 4%    
  Mon, Dec 22 25 @Virginia L 65-87 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 331 Loyola Maryland W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 278 @Boston University L 72-73 45%    
  Wed, Jan 7 176 @Colgate L 71-77 28%    
  Sat, Jan 10 289 Holy Cross W 75-70 69%    
  Mon, Jan 12 205 Navy W 72-71 55%    
  Sun, Jan 18 340 @Army W 77-73 63%    
  Wed, Jan 21 176 Colgate L 74-75 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 289 @Holy Cross L 72-73 48%    
  Wed, Jan 28 331 @Loyola Maryland W 77-74 60%    
  Sat, Jan 31 325 Lafayette W 77-69 76%    
  Wed, Feb 4 301 Bucknell W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 205 @Navy L 69-74 33%    
  Wed, Feb 11 308 @Lehigh W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 340 Army W 80-70 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 301 @Bucknell W 73-72 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 325 @Lafayette W 74-72 56%    
  Wed, Feb 25 308 Lehigh W 77-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 278 Boston University W 75-70 67%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 5.2 3.6 2.0 0.6 0.1 17.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.4 5.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.9 6.9 4.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 16.7 3rd
4th 0.3 3.3 6.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 5.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.2 0.3 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.7 0.3 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.2 6.0 9.2 11.6 13.8 14.0 12.9 10.3 7.4 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 98.0% 2.0    1.8 0.1
15-3 88.2% 3.6    3.0 0.6 0.0
14-4 70.3% 5.2    3.3 1.8 0.1
13-5 38.9% 4.0    1.7 1.8 0.5 0.0
12-6 13.6% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 10.9 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 57.1% 57.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 37.3% 37.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
16-2 2.0% 37.6% 37.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.3
15-3 4.1% 31.9% 31.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 2.8
14-4 7.4% 28.1% 28.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.6 5.3
13-5 10.3% 23.3% 23.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 7.9
12-6 12.9% 18.4% 18.4% 15.6 0.1 0.7 1.6 10.6
11-7 14.0% 14.1% 14.1% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.6 12.1
10-8 13.8% 9.4% 9.4% 15.9 0.1 1.2 12.5
9-9 11.6% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 10.6
8-10 9.2% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.7
7-11 6.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 5.9
6-12 4.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.1
5-13 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.9 8.1 85.7 0.0%