American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.5 #220
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 #187
Pace 68.0 #207
Improvement -0.3 #200

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #242 C D C C- B-
Defense #205 C- C C+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #211 1.13 #204 -1.1 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #307 0.77 #150 -2.2 #289
Three Pointers 48% #42 1.02 #187 +3.7 #60
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #166 +0.3 #166
Freethrows 0.26 #306 77% #28 0.20 #242
Second Chance 25.1% #322 1.02 #210 0.26 #304
Turnovers 16.5% #187
Total Offense -2.5 #242

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #60 1.27 #310 -5.1 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #157 0.72 #117 +0.2 #176
Three Pointers 36% #317 1.03 #200 +2.5 #92
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #265 -2.4 #265
Freethrows 0.37 #344 72% #165 0.27 #334
Second Chance 31.8% #244 0.97 #81 0.31 #151
Turnovers 17.8% #88
Total Defense -1.0 #205

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #85 0.5% #217
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #185 4.2% #260
Possession Length 18.1 #258 16.5 #47
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #201 0.18 #199
Improvement -1.1 #245 +0.8 #137

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 23.3% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 97.6% 99.2% 95.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 98.7%
Conference Champion 29.4% 36.8% 16.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 1.6% 2.8%
First Round20.9% 22.7% 18.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 62.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 418 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 66 @Wake Forest L 74 - 88 9% -9  0 - 1 -2 +2 C C+ D -3 B D- C
 Sun, Nov 9 192 Penn W 84 - 78 56% +3  1 - 1 +1 +0 B D D+ -0 C- B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 67 @George Washington L 67 - 107 9% -20  1 - 2 -29 -8 C- C- D -18 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 124 @Rutgers L 71 - 80 20% -1  1 - 3 -4 +1 D- D- A+ -4 C F C
 Fri, Nov 28 336 Maine W 74 - 61 84% +12  2 - 3 -1 +3 B F A+ -4 F C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 172 Siena L 55 - 59 52% -1  2 - 4 -8 -19 F C- F +11 B A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 262 Longwood W 92 - 66 68% +8  3 - 4 +18 +12 B- B- C+ +5 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 201 Drexel W 75 - 73 58% -1  4 - 4 -4 +5 B F A+ -8 F+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 60 83% +10  5 - 4 +4 +11 A+ F+ B -4 F A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 53 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83 - 105 7% -12  5 - 5 -9 +15 B- C- A -23 F+ F C
 Mon, Dec 22 21 @Virginia L 51 - 95 2% -18  5 - 6 -24 -8 D- C- C -20 F D- C
 Wed, Dec 31 320 Loyola Maryland W 84 - 69 81% +10  6 - 6 1 - 0 +2 +7 A F C+ -5 F+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 279 @Boston University W 64 - 62 51% +5  7 - 6 2 - 0 -2 -2 C F D+ +1 A+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 210 @Colgate L 62 - 64 36% +5  7 - 7 2 - 1 -2 -1 A F D- -2 B D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 324 Holy Cross L 73 - 84 82% -3  7 - 8 2 - 2 -24 -7 F C C- -17 F D+ D-
 Mon, Jan 12 183 Navy W 65 - 51 54% +11  8 - 8 3 - 2 +9 -0 C- F A+ +11 A+ A+ A-
 Sun, Jan 18 341 @Army W 78 - 67 68% +7  9 - 8 4 - 2 +3 +7 C+ A+ F -3 D C C-
 Wed, Jan 21 210 Colgate W 70 - 66 59% +1  10 - 8 5 - 2 -2 -4 C- A+ F +2 B B B
 Sat, Jan 24 324 @Holy Cross W 76 - 67 64% +8  11 - 8 6 - 2 +2 +6 C- D+ B+ -4 F B A-
 Wed, Jan 28 320 @Loyola Maryland W 76 - 73 62%
 Sat, Jan 31 314 Lafayette W 76 - 67 80%
 Wed, Feb 4 321 Bucknell W 74 - 65 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 183 @Navy L 67 - 72 32%
 Wed, Feb 11 301 @Lehigh W 72 - 70 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 341 Army W 80 - 69 84%
 Wed, Feb 18 321 @Bucknell W 71 - 68 63%
 Sun, Feb 22 314 @Lafayette W 73 - 70 60%
 Wed, Feb 25 301 Lehigh W 75 - 67 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 279 Boston University W 75 - 69 71%
Totals 18 - 11 13 - 5 -4 -3 C D C -1 C- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 5.8 11.3 8.9 2.2 29.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.8 10.6 14.9 8.0 1.1 37.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 8.7 9.1 3.9 0.3 25.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 2.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.4 13.3 21.1 24.6 19.6 10.0 2.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.2
15-3 88.7% 8.9    6.3 2.4 0.1
14-4 57.6% 11.3    5.0 5.4 0.8 0.0
13-5 23.7% 5.8    1.5 3.0 1.3 0.0
12-6 5.1% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.4% 29.4 15.0 11.4 2.8 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.2% 36.6% 36.6% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.4
15-3 10.0% 31.6% 31.6% 14.6 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.2 6.8
14-4 19.6% 25.5% 25.5% 15.1 0.0 0.6 3.3 1.1 14.6
13-5 24.6% 23.2% 23.2% 15.4 0.2 3.1 2.4 18.9
12-6 21.1% 20.0% 20.0% 15.6 0.0 1.5 2.7 16.9
11-7 13.3% 15.4% 15.4% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.6 11.2
10-8 6.4% 10.1% 10.1% 15.8 0.1 0.5 5.7
9-9 2.2% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.2 2.0
8-10 0.5% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.8% 21.8% 0.0% 15.2 78.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 13.7 3.1 35.6 52.1 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%