Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#32
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#38
Pace72.7#97
Improvement-0.9#248

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#15
First Shot+6.6#28
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#27
Layup/Dunks-2.0#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#206
Freethrows+3.0#32
Improvement+0.2#152

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#77
First Shot+2.6#86
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#134
Layups/Dunks+7.7#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.3#365
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#92
Freethrows+0.8#128
Improvement-1.2#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 8.4% 8.4% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 24.8% 24.9% 8.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.0% 67.1% 37.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.4% 66.5% 37.6%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 8.5
.500 or above 87.5% 87.7% 58.2%
.500 or above in Conference 55.1% 55.2% 34.1%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 2.3% 7.1%
First Four7.5% 7.5% 8.2%
First Round63.4% 63.6% 32.4%
Second Round39.3% 39.4% 18.7%
Sweet Sixteen14.2% 14.2% 4.4%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.2% 1.6%
Final Four1.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 26 - 212 - 13
Quad 32 - 013 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 193 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96-81 95%     1 - 0 +10.0 +12.3 -3.7
  Sun, Nov 9 49 Washington W 78-69 70%     2 - 0 +16.9 +6.1 +10.6
  Fri, Nov 14 195 Tarleton St. W 94-81 95%     3 - 0 +7.9 +15.1 -7.8
  Mon, Nov 24 59 Creighton W 81-74 65%     4 - 0 +16.3 +14.5 +2.0
  Tue, Nov 25 18 St. John's L 81-96 35%     4 - 1 +2.1 +14.4 -11.9
  Wed, Nov 26 52 San Diego St. W 91-81 61%     5 - 1 +20.3 +22.0 -1.8
  Tue, Dec 2 278 Sacramento St. W 110-88 97%     6 - 1 +12.7 +24.9 -14.0
  Sat, Dec 6 76 @Memphis L 71-78 60%     6 - 2 +3.6 +3.4 +0.3
  Wed, Dec 10 233 Norfolk St. W 97-67 96%     7 - 2 +23.0 +16.3 +4.3
  Fri, Dec 19 331 Alcorn St. W 94-67 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 203 Southern W 92-73 96%    
  Sat, Jan 3 53 @TCU W 77-76 51%    
  Wed, Jan 7 4 Iowa St. L 77-83 31%    
  Sat, Jan 10 8 Houston L 70-74 37%    
  Tue, Jan 13 51 @Oklahoma St. L 86-87 50%    
  Fri, Jan 16 17 @Kansas L 72-79 26%    
  Tue, Jan 20 27 Texas Tech W 81-79 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 53 TCU W 80-74 72%    
  Wed, Jan 28 78 @Cincinnati W 78-75 60%    
  Sat, Jan 31 65 @West Virginia W 74-72 56%    
  Wed, Feb 4 63 Colorado W 86-79 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 4 @Iowa St. L 74-86 15%    
  Tue, Feb 10 9 BYU L 78-82 37%    
  Sat, Feb 14 16 Louisville L 82-86 35%    
  Tue, Feb 17 68 @Kansas St. W 87-85 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 60 Arizona St. W 85-78 74%    
  Tue, Feb 24 3 Arizona L 80-86 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 57 @Central Florida W 85-84 53%    
  Wed, Mar 4 8 @Houston L 67-77 19%    
  Sat, Mar 7 120 Utah W 88-75 88%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.7 0.1 4.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 1.2 0.1 6.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.7 1.9 0.2 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 5.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.4 4.3 0.7 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.4 4.0 5.3 1.1 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 5.2 1.9 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.2 2.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 3.5 1.3 0.1 6.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.8 0.1 4.6 13th
14th 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.3 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.7 8.7 11.8 14.0 15.2 13.5 10.8 7.3 4.6 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 92.4% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 60.6% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 17.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.1% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 2.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.3% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 3.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.6% 100.0% 5.8% 94.2% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.3% 99.9% 4.3% 95.6% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 10.8% 99.7% 2.6% 97.1% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.1 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-8 13.5% 98.2% 1.5% 96.7% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.9 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.2 98.2%
9-9 15.2% 90.9% 0.9% 90.0% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.7 3.5 2.5 0.7 0.0 1.4 90.9%
8-10 14.0% 65.4% 0.5% 64.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.9 2.9 0.1 4.9 65.2%
7-11 11.8% 31.4% 0.3% 31.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 0.2 8.1 31.2%
6-12 8.7% 7.2% 0.2% 7.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 8.1 7.1%
5-13 5.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.3%
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 67.0% 1.8% 65.2% 7.3 0.3 0.9 2.6 4.6 7.1 9.3 10.8 9.9 7.8 6.9 6.4 0.4 33.0 66.4%