Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#286
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#281
Pace72.2#110
Improvement+2.5#50

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#315
First Shot-4.0#291
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#269
Layup/Dunks-1.2#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#50
Freethrows-3.6#343
Improvement+0.5#125

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#215
First Shot-2.3#251
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#112
Layups/Dunks+2.0#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#353
Freethrows-0.5#216
Improvement+2.0#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.8% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 14.5% 31.3% 14.2%
.500 or above in Conference 47.7% 56.1% 47.5%
Conference Champion 2.8% 5.5% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 3.7% 6.3%
First Four1.8% 1.5% 1.8%
First Round2.6% 4.0% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 2.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 411 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 23 @North Carolina L 54-94 2%     0 - 1 -21.5 -13.6 -5.0
  Tue, Nov 11 20 @Arkansas L 56-93 2%     0 - 2 -18.3 -12.1 -4.1
  Sun, Nov 16 232 Samford L 77-84 OT 52%     0 - 3 -14.1 -6.0 -7.7
  Thu, Nov 20 146 @North Texas L 56-74 16%     0 - 4 -14.0 -9.6 -4.8
  Sun, Nov 23 250 Eastern Washington W 92-65 56%     1 - 4 +18.9 +10.2 +7.9
  Tue, Nov 25 330 Eastern Illinois W 81-60 74%     2 - 4 +7.6 +12.2 -2.4
  Sat, Nov 29 124 @East Tennessee St. L 57-80 13%     2 - 5 -17.2 -14.6 -2.1
  Wed, Dec 3 325 Arkansas Little Rock W 85-47 72%     3 - 5 +25.2 +4.9 +19.5
  Sun, Dec 7 298 @East Texas A&M L 68-75 41%     3 - 6 -11.3 -9.3 -1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 10 @Vanderbilt L 72-83 1%     3 - 7 +10.2 +3.5 +7.5
  Sun, Dec 21 42 @SMU L 65-87 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 184 Florida Gulf Coast L 74-76 42%    
  Sat, Jan 3 345 Stetson W 76-68 78%    
  Thu, Jan 8 275 @Bellarmine L 72-76 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 243 @Eastern Kentucky L 72-77 32%    
  Thu, Jan 15 309 Jacksonville W 73-68 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 343 North Florida W 84-76 76%    
  Thu, Jan 22 313 @West Georgia L 73-74 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 214 @North Alabama L 68-74 28%    
  Wed, Jan 28 210 @Queens L 76-82 28%    
  Sat, Jan 31 243 Eastern Kentucky W 75-74 54%    
  Wed, Feb 4 214 North Alabama L 70-71 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 142 @Lipscomb L 69-80 16%    
  Thu, Feb 12 275 Bellarmine W 75-73 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 313 West Georgia W 76-71 69%    
  Thu, Feb 19 345 @Stetson W 73-71 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 184 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71-79 24%    
  Wed, Feb 25 191 @Austin Peay L 67-75 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 210 Queens L 79-80 48%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.7 2.6 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.3 1.2 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.3 1.7 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 6.0 2.6 0.2 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 6.2 3.6 0.4 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.2 4.4 0.5 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 4.5 4.4 0.8 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 3.7 1.1 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 3.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.1 7.1 10.9 13.0 14.6 13.8 12.3 9.4 6.0 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 78.9% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 51.9% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
13-5 19.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 24.2% 24.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 17.2% 17.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.8% 14.2% 14.2% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.5
13-5 3.4% 12.5% 12.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.0
12-6 6.0% 7.4% 7.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 5.5
11-7 9.4% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.1 0.5 8.9
10-8 12.3% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5 11.7
9-9 13.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 13.4
8-10 14.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 14.4
7-11 13.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.9
6-12 10.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.8
5-13 7.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.0
4-14 4.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 96.7 0.0%