Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#64
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#122
Pace78.1#24
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#192
First Shot-1.3#215
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#168
Layup/Dunks+0.5#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#103
Freethrows-0.1#182
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#7
First Shot+9.0#9
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#129
Layups/Dunks+7.5#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#185
Freethrows+0.9#133
Improvement-0.2#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.0% 3.3% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 27.7% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.3% 27.1% 13.1%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 9.0
.500 or above 54.6% 68.3% 43.6%
.500 or above in Conference 27.1% 32.6% 22.7%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.9% 7.6% 11.7%
First Four4.1% 5.2% 3.2%
First Round17.6% 24.9% 11.7%
Second Round8.2% 12.0% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.8% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 44.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 12
Quad 24 - 38 - 14
Quad 32 - 110 - 15
Quad 46 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 276 Western Carolina W 94-63 94%     1 - 0 +21.6 +5.9 +11.8
  Fri, Nov 7 335 Georgia St. W 74-64 97%     2 - 0 -3.6 -8.4 +4.1
  Tue, Nov 11 67 Dayton W 74-62 63%     3 - 0 +17.4 -5.8 +21.6
  Sun, Nov 16 301 Mount St. Mary's W 72-55 95%     4 - 0 +6.3 -8.8 +14.4
  Fri, Nov 21 10 Louisville L 64-74 17%     4 - 1 +9.0 -2.9 +12.1
  Mon, Nov 24 351 NJIT W 104-80 98%     5 - 1 +8.8 +8.7 -4.1
  Wed, Nov 26 200 Eastern Michigan L 56-64 90%     5 - 2 -13.5 -14.9 +0.9
  Mon, Dec 1 199 Tarleton St. W 76-58 90%     6 - 2 +12.5 -0.2 +12.5
  Fri, Dec 5 78 @Xavier L 73-74 44%    
  Sat, Dec 13 21 Georgia L 78-85 27%    
  Wed, Dec 17 268 Alabama St. W 82-64 95%    
  Sun, Dec 21 34 Clemson L 68-72 36%    
  Mon, Dec 29 152 Lipscomb W 78-66 86%    
  Sat, Jan 3 7 Houston L 62-70 23%    
  Tue, Jan 6 68 @West Virginia L 65-68 41%    
  Sun, Jan 11 65 @Central Florida L 77-80 40%    
  Wed, Jan 14 63 Colorado W 77-74 61%    
  Sat, Jan 17 5 Iowa St. L 69-77 23%    
  Wed, Jan 21 8 @Arizona L 69-83 11%    
  Sat, Jan 24 81 @Arizona St. L 75-76 45%    
  Wed, Jan 28 28 Baylor L 76-78 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 7 @Houston L 59-73 11%    
  Thu, Feb 5 68 West Virginia W 68-65 62%    
  Sun, Feb 8 65 Central Florida W 80-77 61%    
  Wed, Feb 11 71 @Kansas St. L 78-80 43%    
  Sun, Feb 15 121 Utah W 79-70 79%    
  Sat, Feb 21 19 @Kansas L 65-75 18%    
  Tue, Feb 24 29 @Texas Tech L 68-76 24%    
  Sat, Feb 28 50 Oklahoma St. W 81-80 53%    
  Tue, Mar 3 12 BYU L 72-79 26%    
  Sat, Mar 7 45 @TCU L 68-74 30%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 3.6 0.8 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 5.0 1.9 0.1 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.8 3.6 0.4 0.0 9.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 3.1 5.5 1.2 0.0 10.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.8 5.5 2.4 0.1 9.9 12th
13th 0.0 1.2 4.7 3.9 0.4 0.0 10.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.9 3.6 4.2 0.9 0.0 9.7 14th
15th 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.6 1.2 0.1 8.6 15th
16th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 5.0 16th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.5 9.2 12.2 14.2 15.0 13.5 10.5 7.7 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 92.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 60.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 35.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.5% 99.3% 8.5% 90.8% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
13-5 1.1% 97.8% 6.2% 91.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.7%
12-6 2.5% 95.2% 3.2% 91.9% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.0%
11-7 4.6% 84.8% 1.8% 83.0% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.7 84.5%
10-8 7.7% 67.1% 0.9% 66.2% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.6 66.8%
9-9 10.5% 39.9% 0.5% 39.3% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.1 6.3 39.5%
8-10 13.5% 13.5% 0.3% 13.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.1 11.7 13.2%
7-11 15.0% 3.0% 0.1% 2.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 14.5 2.9%
6-12 14.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 0.3%
5-13 12.2% 12.2
4-14 9.2% 9.2
3-15 5.5% 5.5
2-16 2.5% 2.5
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 19.7% 0.5% 19.2% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.6 4.0 4.4 3.4 0.2 80.3 19.3%