Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#190
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#278
Pace69.6#187
Improvement-0.4#208

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#172
First Shot-2.9#258
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#39
Layup/Dunks-2.2#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#291
Freethrows+3.3#25
Improvement+1.4#82

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#229
First Shot+0.7#140
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#321
Layups/Dunks+1.0#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#302
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement-1.8#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.4% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 11.9% 21.3% 7.1%
.500 or above in Conference 21.8% 35.8% 14.6%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 16.8% 8.7% 21.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round1.5% 2.3% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 34 - 95 - 16
Quad 46 - 311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 291 Detroit Mercy W 91-71 79%     1 - 0 +9.8 +2.1 +5.4
  Fri, Nov 7 157 @Oregon St. L 73-76 31%     1 - 1 +0.2 +3.0 -2.9
  Sat, Nov 15 340 @Chicago St. W 67-63 73%     2 - 1 -4.1 -3.3 -0.5
  Thu, Nov 20 105 High Point L 80-90 28%     2 - 2 -5.9 +2.8 -8.3
  Sat, Nov 22 317 Southern Indiana W 84-73 76%     3 - 2 +1.8 +4.5 -3.3
  Wed, Nov 26 186 @Robert Morris L 74-88 38%     3 - 3 -12.6 +5.4 -18.4
  Wed, Dec 3 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62-63 90%     3 - 4 -16.6 -19.1 +2.5
  Sun, Dec 7 79 @Yale L 66-80 13%     3 - 5 -3.6 -1.8 -2.9
  Sat, Dec 13 87 @Belmont L 84-87 15%     3 - 6 0 - 1 +6.3 +22.9 -16.9
  Wed, Dec 17 94 Northern Iowa L 65-69 34%    
  Sun, Dec 21 196 @Charlotte L 70-73 41%    
  Thu, Jan 1 100 Murray St. L 79-83 36%    
  Sun, Jan 4 212 @Valparaiso L 71-73 44%    
  Wed, Jan 7 129 Southern Illinois L 75-76 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 91 @Illinois St. L 69-80 16%    
  Tue, Jan 13 94 @Northern Iowa L 62-72 17%    
  Sat, Jan 17 134 Drake L 72-73 48%    
  Tue, Jan 20 265 Evansville W 76-69 73%    
  Sat, Jan 24 113 @Bradley L 69-77 23%    
  Tue, Jan 27 181 Indiana St. W 77-74 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 129 @Southern Illinois L 72-79 27%    
  Tue, Feb 3 100 @Murray St. L 76-86 19%    
  Fri, Feb 6 87 Belmont L 76-81 32%    
  Thu, Feb 12 134 @Drake L 70-76 28%    
  Sun, Feb 15 91 Illinois St. L 72-77 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 265 @Evansville W 73-72 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 212 Valparaiso W 74-70 66%    
  Tue, Feb 24 113 Bradley L 72-74 42%    
  Sun, Mar 1 181 @Indiana St. L 74-77 38%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.5 0.7 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.5 1.1 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 4.7 5.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.9 5.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 16.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.6 6.5 5.5 1.7 0.1 18.2 9th
10th 0.3 1.5 4.0 5.8 4.0 1.0 0.1 16.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.1 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 10.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.7 7.6 11.3 13.2 14.0 13.4 11.4 8.3 5.9 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 90.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 81.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 53.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 22.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 15.9% 15.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.4% 12.8% 12.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 1.0% 14.9% 14.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-7 2.1% 7.5% 7.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0
12-8 3.8% 6.6% 6.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5
11-9 5.9% 4.4% 4.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.7
10-10 8.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.1
9-11 11.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.2
8-12 13.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.2
7-13 14.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.9
6-14 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-15 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.2
4-16 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-17 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
2-18 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%