Preseason Rankings
Liberty
Conference USA
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#97
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.4#285
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#109
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.9% 27.7% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.7 11.5 12.3
.500 or above 85.9% 90.9% 73.6%
.500 or above in Conference 87.2% 90.3% 79.4%
Conference Champion 34.5% 38.8% 23.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.8% 2.6%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round24.8% 27.5% 17.9%
Second Round5.7% 6.7% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 38 - 49 - 8
Quad 49 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 123   College of Charleston W 75-69 71%    
  Nov 09, 2025 139   Florida Atlantic W 75-68 74%    
  Nov 24, 2025 205   Vermont W 66-58 76%    
  Dec 06, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 79-53 99%    
  Dec 10, 2025 31   @ North Carolina St. L 61-73 15%    
  Dec 20, 2025 65   @ Dayton L 63-70 29%    
  Dec 28, 2025 210   @ Florida International W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 02, 2026 142   Kennesaw St. W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 04, 2026 153   Jacksonville St. W 69-61 75%    
  Jan 08, 2026 143   @ Louisiana Tech W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 10, 2026 194   @ Sam Houston St. W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 15, 2026 138   New Mexico St. W 68-61 71%    
  Jan 17, 2026 157   UTEP W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 21, 2026 156   @ Western Kentucky W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 24, 2026 242   Delaware W 80-67 85%    
  Jan 28, 2026 147   @ Middle Tennessee W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 04, 2026 242   @ Delaware W 77-70 71%    
  Feb 07, 2026 162   Missouri St. W 68-59 77%    
  Feb 11, 2026 138   @ New Mexico St. W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 14, 2026 157   @ UTEP W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 19, 2026 210   Florida International W 74-63 82%    
  Feb 21, 2026 156   Western Kentucky W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 26, 2026 142   @ Kennesaw St. W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 28, 2026 153   @ Jacksonville St. W 66-64 57%    
  Mar 05, 2026 143   Louisiana Tech W 68-61 72%    
  Mar 07, 2026 194   Sam Houston St. W 74-64 80%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 7.2 8.1 6.6 4.1 1.5 34.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.2 5.3 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.5 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.6 2.4 0.7 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 3.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.5 5.9 7.7 8.8 10.2 11.3 11.4 10.4 9.1 6.8 4.1 1.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
19-1 99.8% 4.1    4.1 0.0
18-2 97.3% 6.6    6.1 0.5
17-3 88.5% 8.1    6.6 1.4 0.1
16-4 68.8% 7.2    4.7 2.3 0.2
15-5 42.8% 4.9    2.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 16.5% 1.9    0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.5% 34.5 25.9 6.9 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.5% 79.9% 69.8% 10.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 33.4%
19-1 4.1% 65.7% 60.3% 5.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.4 13.5%
18-2 6.8% 54.1% 52.1% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.2 0.8 0.1 3.1 4.1%
17-3 9.1% 41.8% 41.3% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 1.6 0.2 5.3 0.8%
16-4 10.4% 36.0% 36.0% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.5 0.1 6.7 0.1%
15-5 11.4% 29.2% 29.1% 0.1% 12.2 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.0 0.1%
14-6 11.3% 22.7% 22.7% 12.6 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 8.7
13-7 10.2% 17.0% 17.0% 12.9 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 8.5
12-8 8.8% 11.5% 11.5% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.8
11-9 7.7% 6.8% 6.8% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 7.1
10-10 5.9% 5.5% 5.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
9-11 4.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.3
8-12 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.4 0.0 0.0 3.1
7-13 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.9% 24.3% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 7.3 8.5 4.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 75.1 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.1 2.1 18.4 16.2 24.5 18.2 12.3 6.2 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 91.6% 8.2 8.4 8.4 33.1 33.3 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 5.2 50.3 24.8 24.8