Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#107
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#143
Pace64.4#311
Improvement-5.0#362

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#101
First Shot+4.1#73
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#243
Layup/Dunks+8.8#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#35
Freethrows-5.3#363
Improvement-5.0#365

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#140
First Shot+2.1#100
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#288
Layups/Dunks-0.8#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#71
Freethrows+1.7#79
Improvement+0.0#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 29.8% 21.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.3 13.0
.500 or above 90.1% 96.6% 88.3%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 94.9% 89.6%
Conference Champion 33.1% 41.8% 30.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round23.4% 29.8% 21.7%
Second Round2.9% 5.0% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 21.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 38 - 69 - 9
Quad 410 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 171 College of Charleston W 90-75 77%     1 - 0 +11.2 +25.4 -12.4
  Sun, Nov 9 116 Florida Atlantic W 88-68 64%     2 - 0 +20.2 +16.0 +4.8
  Mon, Nov 24 188 Vermont W 79-73 70%     3 - 0 +4.3 +5.8 -1.3
  Tue, Nov 25 140 Towson L 69-72 59%     3 - 1 -1.7 +4.3 -6.3
  Wed, Nov 26 113 Bradley L 64-74 52%     3 - 2 -6.7 -0.3 -7.2
  Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92-50 98%     4 - 2 +20.5 +12.5 +9.3
  Wed, Dec 10 29 @North Carolina St. L 45-85 11%     4 - 3 -22.9 -19.4 -5.0
  Sat, Dec 20 62 @Dayton L 68-76 22%    
  Sun, Dec 28 187 @Florida International W 76-74 59%    
  Fri, Jan 2 159 Kennesaw St. W 83-76 73%    
  Sun, Jan 4 253 Jacksonville St. W 73-61 87%    
  Thu, Jan 8 179 @Louisiana Tech W 67-65 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 125 @Sam Houston St. L 74-76 44%    
  Thu, Jan 15 133 New Mexico St. W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 218 UTEP W 72-62 82%    
  Wed, Jan 21 145 @Western Kentucky L 75-76 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 284 Delaware W 76-63 89%    
  Wed, Jan 28 158 @Middle Tennessee W 73-72 52%    
  Wed, Feb 4 284 @Delaware W 73-66 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 260 Missouri St. W 73-61 86%    
  Wed, Feb 11 133 @New Mexico St. L 68-69 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 218 @UTEP W 69-65 65%    
  Thu, Feb 19 187 Florida International W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 145 Western Kentucky W 79-73 70%    
  Thu, Feb 26 159 @Kennesaw St. W 80-79 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 253 @Jacksonville St. W 70-64 70%    
  Thu, Mar 5 179 Louisiana Tech W 70-62 76%    
  Sat, Mar 7 125 Sam Houston St. W 77-73 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.8 8.2 7.3 4.4 2.0 0.4 33.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.7 5.3 2.4 0.5 0.1 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.4 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 4.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.3 6.3 8.8 10.9 12.5 13.8 12.9 10.8 7.9 4.5 2.0 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
18-2 98.5% 4.4    4.2 0.2 0.0
17-3 93.3% 7.3    6.3 1.0 0.0
16-4 76.6% 8.2    5.7 2.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 53.0% 6.8    3.3 2.8 0.6 0.0
14-6 23.6% 3.3    0.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.1% 33.1 23.0 7.9 1.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 58.3% 56.7% 1.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3.6%
19-1 2.0% 53.3% 52.8% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.9 1.1%
18-2 4.5% 46.1% 46.1% 11.9 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.4
17-3 7.9% 39.8% 39.8% 12.2 0.3 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.7
16-4 10.8% 36.2% 36.2% 12.5 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.3 6.9
15-5 12.9% 30.1% 30.1% 12.8 0.0 1.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 9.0
14-6 13.8% 25.2% 25.2% 13.0 0.7 1.9 0.8 0.0 10.3
13-7 12.5% 19.6% 19.6% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 10.0
12-8 10.9% 14.3% 14.3% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.4
11-9 8.8% 10.3% 10.3% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 7.9
10-10 6.3% 7.7% 7.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.9
9-11 4.3% 5.1% 5.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
8-12 2.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.4
7-13 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 7.7 9.0 4.0 0.9 0.2 76.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.7 6.9 10.3 13.8 3.4 31.0 17.2 13.8 3.4