Missouri
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#49
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#68
Pace70.3#164
Improvement-2.4#326

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#28
First Shot+6.0#39
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#47
Layup/Dunks+6.0#24
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#206
Freethrows-0.3#199
Improvement-1.2#282

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#94
First Shot+2.0#105
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#146
Layups/Dunks+7.3#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#300
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#348
Freethrows+2.0#68
Improvement-1.2#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 2.7% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 6.6% 12.1% 4.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.4% 53.5% 33.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.6% 52.7% 32.5%
Average Seed 8.3 8.0 8.5
.500 or above 81.1% 91.8% 77.5%
.500 or above in Conference 37.9% 45.6% 35.3%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.7% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 6.1% 9.0%
First Four6.0% 6.3% 5.9%
First Round35.4% 50.5% 30.2%
Second Round17.8% 26.8% 14.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 7.5% 3.6%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.4% 1.2%
Final Four0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Neutral) - 25.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 54 - 11
Quad 23 - 28 - 14
Quad 32 - 010 - 14
Quad 49 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 283 @Howard W 88-67 91%     1 - 0 +17.4 +13.0 +3.9
  Fri, Nov 7 213 Southeast Missouri St. W 89-84 94%     2 - 0 -1.4 +5.6 -7.5
  Sun, Nov 9 331 VMI W 106-68 98%     3 - 0 +24.6 +17.5 +4.3
  Wed, Nov 12 96 Minnesota W 83-60 80%     4 - 0 +25.2 +22.5 +5.8
  Mon, Nov 17 324 Prairie View W 91-73 98%     5 - 0 +5.2 +5.2 -1.4
  Thu, Nov 20 274 South Dakota W 102-68 96%     6 - 0 +24.9 +17.0 +6.1
  Tue, Nov 25 361 South Carolina St. W 98-66 99%     7 - 0 +14.1 +17.0 -3.0
  Fri, Nov 28 329 Cleveland St. W 86-59 98%     8 - 0 +14.0 +3.5 +10.2
  Tue, Dec 2 56 @Notre Dame L 71-76 43%     8 - 1 +7.7 +5.6 +2.0
  Sun, Dec 7 17 @Kansas L 60-80 19%     8 - 2 +0.2 +3.4 -4.5
  Thu, Dec 11 278 Alabama St. W 85-77 96%     9 - 2 -1.4 +16.5 -16.9
  Sun, Dec 14 259 Bethune-Cookman W 82-60 95%     10 - 2 +13.5 +8.5 +6.0
  Mon, Dec 22 12 Illinois L 77-84 25%    
  Sat, Jan 3 13 Florida L 77-81 36%    
  Wed, Jan 7 21 @Kentucky L 75-83 23%    
  Sat, Jan 10 60 @Mississippi L 74-75 47%    
  Wed, Jan 14 28 Auburn L 80-81 48%    
  Sat, Jan 17 35 @LSU L 76-81 32%    
  Tue, Jan 20 19 Georgia L 85-87 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 47 Oklahoma W 81-78 61%    
  Tue, Jan 27 16 @Alabama L 84-93 20%    
  Sat, Jan 31 84 Mississippi St. W 82-75 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 86 @South Carolina W 75-73 56%    
  Wed, Feb 11 45 @Texas A&M L 80-83 39%    
  Sat, Feb 14 40 Texas W 80-78 56%    
  Wed, Feb 18 10 Vanderbilt L 79-83 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 20 @Arkansas L 77-85 24%    
  Tue, Feb 24 15 Tennessee L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Feb 28 84 @Mississippi St. W 79-78 55%    
  Tue, Mar 3 47 @Oklahoma L 78-81 39%    
  Sat, Mar 7 20 Arkansas L 80-82 44%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.4 1.1 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.2 3.0 0.2 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.5 1.0 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 4.4 3.1 0.1 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.0 0.9 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 5.1 2.3 0.1 9.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 4.3 4.1 0.4 9.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.9 1.1 0.0 9.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.5 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.2 4.2 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.6 9.5 13.0 13.8 14.1 12.8 9.8 7.0 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 97.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 89.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 51.6% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.4% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.2% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.3% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 5.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.2% 98.3% 4.2% 94.2% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.2%
11-7 7.0% 93.8% 3.7% 90.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 93.6%
10-8 9.8% 85.6% 1.2% 84.4% 8.5 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.3 1.5 0.4 1.4 85.4%
9-9 12.8% 68.3% 0.9% 67.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 2.9 1.4 0.0 4.1 68.0%
8-10 14.1% 34.4% 0.5% 33.8% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.3 0.1 9.2 34.0%
7-11 13.8% 10.5% 0.3% 10.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 12.4 10.2%
6-12 13.0% 1.6% 0.1% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 12.8 1.4%
5-13 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 9.5
4-14 6.6% 6.6
3-15 3.3% 3.3
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 38.4% 1.2% 37.2% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.3 5.5 7.1 7.0 6.6 5.3 0.2 61.6 37.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%