Oklahoma
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.0 #55
Expected Predictive Rating +7.5 #77
Pace 68.8 #182
Improvement -2.1 #284

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #45 B- A- A- C+ C+
Defense #100 B- C+ C- C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #205 1.19 #139 +0.0 #175
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #253 0.86 #52 -0.5 #200
Three Pointers 46% #89 1.05 #132 +3.2 #82
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #99 +2.7 #98
Freethrows 0.31 #156 74% #133 0.23 #137
Second Chance 34.3% #78 1.30 #5 0.45 #17
Turnovers 13.0% #17
Total Offense +7.4 #45

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #274 1.03 #40 +4.2 #53
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #59 0.69 #80 -0.8 #247
Three Pointers 40% #217 1.08 #270 -0.7 #207
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #91 +2.7 #92
Freethrows 0.29 #161 73% #218 0.21 #161
Second Chance 31.3% #216 0.98 #92 0.31 #146
Turnovers 15.8% #215
Total Defense +2.5 #100

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #137 -1.6% #61
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.5% #104 -3.7% #114
Possession Length 16.5 #98 17.8 #252
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #203 0.09 #9
Improvement -3.5 #343 +1.4 #98

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 12.9% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.8% 12.6% 3.7%
Average Seed 9.9 9.8 10.1
.500 or above 32.3% 50.3% 22.9%
.500 or above in Conference 2.0% 4.4% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 42.6% 26.4% 50.9%
First Four3.3% 5.5% 2.1%
First Round5.3% 10.0% 2.8%
Second Round2.1% 4.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Home) - 34.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 13
Quad 24 - 47 - 17
Quad 31 - 08 - 17
Quad 47 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 355 St. Francis (PA) W 102 - 66 98% +11  1 - 0 +19 +16 B- A+ B+ +1 B- C C+
 Sat, Nov 8 10 @Gonzaga L 68 - 83 12% -13  1 - 1 +8 +3 C C D+ +6 B+ A- F+
 Tue, Nov 11 323 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 95 - 69 97% +10  2 - 1 +13 +16 C+ A+ B+ -3 B- C B
 Sat, Nov 15 12 Nebraska L 99 - 105 20% +3  2 - 2 +13 +33 A+ A+ A+ -21 F A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 332 Oral Roberts W 95 - 71 98% +19  3 - 2 +10 +15 C A+ A+ -5 B- F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 350 Alcorn St. W 72 - 53 98% +5  4 - 2 +4 -6 F F+ A+ +10 D+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 105 Marquette W 75 - 74 70% -4  5 - 2 +5 +12 B A+ A+ -7 C- A- F
 Tue, Dec 2 66 @Wake Forest W 86 - 68 44% +4  6 - 2 +30 +17 A A+ A +12 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 81 Arizona St. L 70 - 86 60% -16  6 - 3 -9 -4 F B- B -4 C- F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 62 Oklahoma St. W 85 - 76 54% +4  7 - 3 +18 +13 B- B- A+ +5 A A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 354 UMKC W 89 - 67 98% +19  8 - 3 +5 +9 D A A+ -4 C- D+ B+
 Mon, Dec 22 329 Stetson W 107 - 54 97% +25  9 - 3 +39 +30 A+ A+ A- +11 A+ D+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 365 Mississippi Valley W 93 - 69 100% +9  10 - 3 -3 +24 A+ A+ B+ -24 F D- D
 Sat, Jan 3 63 Mississippi W 86 - 70 66% +5  11 - 3 1 - 0 +22 +20 A+ A A+ +2 B+ B D+
 Wed, Jan 7 86 @Mississippi St. L 53 - 72 51% -5  11 - 4 1 - 1 -9 -10 F C- F -0 A F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 30 @Texas A&M L 76 - 83 23% -1  11 - 5 1 - 2 +11 +11 C A+ F+ -0 B A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 13 11 Florida L 79 - 96 26% -16  11 - 6 1 - 3 -0 +14 A- A+ C -14 C F F
 Sat, Jan 17 18 Alabama L 81 - 83 33% +2  11 - 7 1 - 4 +12 +6 D+ A+ B +6 A B- B
 Tue, Jan 20 77 @South Carolina L 76 - 85 48% -8  11 - 8 1 - 5 +1 +6 C A+ C- -5 C- C B-
 Sat, Jan 24 51 @Missouri L 87 - 88 OT 36% +0  11 - 9 1 - 6 +13 +13 A+ F B- +0 A+ D+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 19 Arkansas L 82 - 86 34%
 Sat, Jan 31 31 Texas L 79 - 80 45%
 Wed, Feb 4 24 @Kentucky L 73 - 82 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 15 @Vanderbilt L 76 - 87 15%
 Sat, Feb 14 28 Georgia L 84 - 86 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 22 @Tennessee L 69 - 79 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 30 Texas A&M L 81 - 83 44%
 Tue, Feb 24 26 Auburn L 78 - 81 40%
 Sat, Feb 28 41 @LSU L 75 - 80 32%
 Tue, Mar 3 51 Missouri W 79 - 77 59%
 Sat, Mar 7 31 @Texas L 76 - 83 25%
Totals 15 - 16 5 - 13 +10 +7 B- A- A- +3 B- C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 0.4 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 1.5 0.2 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.4 1.0 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 4.3 3.6 0.1 8.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 5.0 7.1 1.2 0.0 13.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 5.2 10.2 3.5 0.1 19.4 14th
15th 0.6 5.7 11.1 5.5 0.4 0.0 23.5 15th
16th 1.6 6.6 9.4 5.3 0.8 0.0 23.6 16th
Total 1.6 7.2 15.6 22.1 21.9 16.1 9.6 4.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.4% 95.8% 2.8% 93.1% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.7%
9-9 1.5% 88.7% 1.3% 87.4% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 88.5%
8-10 4.0% 61.9% 1.5% 60.4% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.0 1.5 61.3%
7-11 9.6% 24.1% 0.7% 23.3% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.7 0.0 7.3 23.5%
6-12 16.1% 2.7% 0.2% 2.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 15.7 2.5%
5-13 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 21.9 0.0%
4-14 22.1% 22.1
3-15 15.6% 15.6
2-16 7.2% 7.2
1-17 1.6% 1.6
0-18
Total 100% 7.0% 0.2% 6.8% 9.9 93.0 6.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%