San Diego
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #211
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #244
Pace 75.3 #37
Improvement +4.0 #28

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #197 C C C D C-
Defense #235 C- D- B+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #320 1.25 #86 -1.8 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #197 0.71 #245 -0.8 #220
Three Pointers 48% #52 1.03 #171 +3.6 #64
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #149 +1.0 #146
Freethrows 0.24 #330 74% #120 0.18 #308
Second Chance 29.9% #207 1.03 #205 0.31 #202
Turnovers 16.9% #215
Total Offense -1.2 #197

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #155 1.27 #311 -2.9 #275
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #275 0.81 #272 +0.7 #145
Three Pointers 43% #129 0.96 #103 +0.4 #160
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #242 -1.9 #240
Freethrows 0.34 #305 71% #117 0.24 #289
Second Chance 35.6% #334 1.11 #272 0.39 #331
Turnovers 19.6% #35
Total Defense -1.9 #235

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #228 0.9% #252
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #136 2.7% #229
Possession Length 17.3 #168 16.6 #59
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #68 0.25 #357
Improvement +2.1 #72 +2.0 #70

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 14.0 13.5
.500 or above 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 11.1% 13.6% 10.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 6.2% 8.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 18.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 34 - 64 - 16
Quad 46 - 410 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 225 Idaho St. L 68 - 71 64% -7  0 - 1 -10 -3 C D C- -7 C C- D+
 Wed, Nov 12 188 Idaho W 78 - 74 57% +5  1 - 1 -1 +5 A+ B- F -6 C- C- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 288 Grambling St. W 78 - 68 76% +7  2 - 1 -0 -2 F+ F C- +1 A- D C
 Fri, Nov 21 291 UC Riverside L 71 - 85 76% -10  2 - 2 -24 -4 F+ C+ D -21 F F D
 Tue, Nov 25 139 California Baptist L 61 - 76 34% -2  2 - 3 -14 -10 C- F+ D -3 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 251 @Long Beach St. L 72 - 76 46% +1  2 - 4 -6 +6 B- A+ F -13 D+ F F
 Fri, Dec 5 231 @San Jose St. L 69 - 86 42% -18  2 - 5 -18 -8 F C+ A- -9 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 48 USC L 81 - 94 15% -5  2 - 6 -5 +4 C B C- -8 F D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 311 Northern Arizona W 78 - 69 80% +6  3 - 6 -3 +2 C+ A+ F -4 D+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 112 @UC San Diego L 72 - 81 18% +7 
 Mon, Dec 22 46 @Washington L 56 - 86 6% -16  3 - 7 -16 -13 C- D- F -1 A- F B-
 Sun, Dec 28 131 Pacific W 66 - 54 43% +9  4 - 7 1 - 0 +11 -1 F+ B+ B +13 A A- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 10 Gonzaga L 93 - 99 4% -10  4 - 8 1 - 1 +11 +17 A+ C+ A+ -5 C F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 97 @San Francisco L 64 - 74 14% -4  4 - 9 1 - 2 -2 -6 C+ F C- +4 A D+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 52 @Santa Clara L 70 - 98 7% -12  4 - 10 1 - 3 -15 -1 B F C- -12 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 281 Pepperdine W 83 - 63 74% +12  5 - 10 2 - 3 +10 +11 A+ C+ C -0 C B B+
 Sat, Jan 10 131 @Pacific L 70 - 77 23% +6  5 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -0 C D+ D+ -2 A+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 122 @Seattle L 64 - 75 21% -6  5 - 12 2 - 5 -5 -2 C D- D+ -3 D- B- B
 Wed, Jan 21 138 Washington St. W 96 - 92 45% +8  6 - 12 3 - 5 +2 +20 A+ A- A+ -18 C F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 52 Santa Clara L 73 - 85 16% -14  6 - 13 3 - 6 -5 -1 C- F A -3 F A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 281 @Pepperdine W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 193 Oregon St. W 77 - 75 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 42 @St. Mary's L 66 - 84 5%
 Sat, Feb 7 155 @Loyola Marymount L 71 - 77 28%
 Wed, Feb 11 205 Portland W 80 - 77 60%
 Sun, Feb 15 97 San Francisco L 73 - 78 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 155 Loyola Marymount L 74 - 75 49%
 Wed, Feb 25 193 @Oregon St. L 74 - 78 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 205 @Portland L 77 - 80 38%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -3 -1 C C C -2 C- D- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 3.9 0.8 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 7.0 2.0 0.1 11.3 6th
7th 0.5 8.9 5.2 0.3 14.9 7th
8th 0.1 5.4 10.2 1.0 0.0 16.7 8th
9th 1.5 11.7 2.2 0.0 15.3 9th
10th 0.3 7.5 5.2 0.1 13.1 10th
11th 0.5 5.6 7.2 0.5 13.9 11th
12th 0.9 1.7 0.3 2.8 12th
Total 1.4 7.6 16.5 23.3 23.7 16.4 8.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.5% 2.1% 2.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 2.6
9-9 8.0% 8.0
8-10 16.4% 16.4
7-11 23.7% 23.7
6-12 23.3% 23.3
5-13 16.5% 16.5
4-14 7.6% 7.6
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%