Texas A&M
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.5 33
Expected Predictive Rating +13.5 42
Pace 75.7 27
Improvement +3.9 45

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 32 A- C B B- A-
Defense B 43 C+ B B C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 83 B- 62% 85 +3.8 54
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 358 B+ 45% 30 -4.2 352
Three Pointers 50% 25 B+ 38% 33 +7.6 14
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.9 10 B+ +4.9 42
1st FG Attempt A- 1.16 22
Second Chance B- 33.9% 81 D+ 0.96 285 C 0.33 146
Turnovers B 14.8% 62
Freethrows C+ 0.32 134 B 76% 63 B- 0.24 103
Total Offense A- +8.7 32

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 285 B- 54% 83 -3.4 74
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 151 C 38% 166 +0.2 201
Three Pointers 44% 94 C 34% 182 +1.4 257
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 113 C+ -1.4 121
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.98 118
Second Chance C+ 29.2% 131 B+ 0.90 31 B 0.26 57
Turnovers B 19.7% 39
Freethrows C+ 0.28 126 C 72% 176 C+ 0.21 123
Total Defense B +5.7 43

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.8 12 18.0 284
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 92 0.15 109
Improvement +3.2 #44 +0.7 #153

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 6% 6% 2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82% 84% 71%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81% 83% 71%
Average Seed 8.7 8.6 9.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 92% 96% 76%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 7% 11%
First Round79% 81% 67%
Second Round41% 43% 31%
Sweet Sixteen9% 10% 7%
Elite Eight3% 4% 2%
Final Four1% 1% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Home) - 82.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 310 - 11
Quad 34 - 113 - 12
Quad 48 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 279 Northwestern St. W 98 - 68 98% +19  99% 1 - 0 A +20 A- +11 C B B- B+ +7 B- B- A-
 Thu, Nov 6 306 Texas Southern W 104 - 70 98% +12  72% 2 - 0 A +22 A +13 A C A+ B+ +6 F+ C- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 57 @Oklahoma St. L 63 - 87 59% -14  4% 2 - 1 D- -12 F -10 F D- F+ C -1 C+ C+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 55 Central Florida L 74 - 86 76% +2  59% 2 - 2 D+ -5 D -5 F A D+ C+ +1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 176 Montana W 86 - 81 95% +10  97% 3 - 2 C +1 A- +10 A+ F C+ D- -9 F A- C
 Fri, Nov 21 317 Manhattan W 109 - 68 99% +21  96% 4 - 2 A+ +28 A+ +18 A+ D+ A B+ +8 D- A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 365 Mississippi Valley W 120 - 84 100% +20  97% 5 - 2 B +10 A- +11 B C B- D- -8 F D A+
 Fri, Nov 28 86 Florida St. W 95 - 59 77% +22  97% 6 - 2 A+ +43 A+ +16 A+ A D+ A+ +24 A+ B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 98 @Pittsburgh W 81 - 73 73% +4  89% 7 - 2 A- +16 A+ +16 B- A A- C+ +1 C+ F C
 Sun, Dec 7 36 SMU L 80 - 93 OT 52% -5  14% 7 - 3 C +1 D- -6 C- C- C- A- +9 A+ D+ D+
 Sun, Dec 14 312 Jacksonville W 112 - 75 98% +24  97% 8 - 3 A+ +25 A+ +23 A+ A+ C- C -1 F A A+
 Sun, Dec 21 310 East Texas A&M W 118 - 77 98% +22  96% 9 - 3 A+ +29 A+ +20 A+ A+ C+ C+ +2 A- C C+
 Mon, Dec 29 335 Prairie View W 111 - 82 99% +22  97% 10 - 3 A- +14 B+ +8 B C B C+ +1 B- F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 56 LSU W 75 - 72 77% +4  78% 11 - 3 1 - 0 B +10 C- -1 B+ D F A +11 B+ B+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 30 @Auburn W 90 - 88 37% -0  51% 12 - 3 2 - 0 A +20 A+ +16 A+ A+ C B- +4 A- F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 51 Oklahoma W 83 - 76 73% +1  59% 13 - 3 3 - 0 A- +15 B+ +7 B F A B+ +7 B+ D A+
 Tue, Jan 13 19 @Tennessee L 82 - 87 2OT 26% +3  72% 13 - 4 3 - 1 A- +16 B- +5 B+ F+ B A +12 A+ B A
 Sat, Jan 17 27 @Texas W 74 - 70 35% +3  70% 14 - 4 4 - 1 A +22 A +13 A B- A+ A +10 A- A+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 75 Mississippi St. W 88 - 68 82% +10  81% 15 - 4 5 - 1 A+ +25 A+ +16 B C A+ A- +9 C A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 94 South Carolina W 92 - 69 87% +15  83% 16 - 4 6 - 1 A+ +25 A+ +18 A+ A B+ B+ +7 B+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 39 @Georgia W 92 - 77 42% +11  99% 17 - 4 7 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +15 A A- B- A+ +15 A+ A D+
 Wed, Feb 4 18 @Alabama L 97 - 100 26% -0  43% 17 - 5 7 - 2 A +18 A+ +18 A+ C A+ C+ +1 B- A F
 Sat, Feb 7 4 Florida L 67 - 86 29% -15  0% 17 - 6 7 - 3 C +1 C +1 C- B A C +0 B- A+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 54 Missouri L 85 - 86 75% +1  55% 17 - 7 7 - 4 B- +7 A+ +17 A+ F A- F+ -11 D C+ F+
 Sat, Feb 14 12 @Vanderbilt L 69 - 82 23% -5  22% 17 - 8 7 - 5 B +9 C+ +3 B D A- B +6 A D+ C
 Wed, Feb 18 73 Mississippi W 82 - 72 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 51 @Oklahoma W 83 - 82 52%
 Wed, Feb 25 17 @Arkansas L 83 - 90 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 27 Texas W 84 - 82 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 24 Kentucky W 81 - 80 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 56 @LSU W 82 - 80 56%
Totals 20 - 11 10 - 8 +14 A- +9 A+ B+ A- B +6 B+ B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B- B+ B+ B+ 42% 15% 50% A- A- B- D+ C B C+ B B- B B- C C C+ 35% 21% 44% C+ C+ C+ B+ B B C+ C C+
1.21 62% 45% 38% +5 +2 1.16 34% 1.0 .33 15% .32 76% .24 1.00 54% 38% 34% -1 0 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 20% .28 72% .23
Nov
3		 Northwestern St. A- B- F C C- 43% 7% 50% B+ C A D+ B B- C+ C+ B- B+ A+ D- D+ B- 39% 27% 35% C- B- D+ A+ B- A- D B- D+
1.30 64% 25% 34% +2 +2 1.10 44% 1.1 .46 16% .36 74% .27 0.90 37% 46% 35% -5 -1 0.90 27% 0.9 .24 21% .35 71% .25
Nov
6		 Texas Southern A A A B+ A 39% 7% 54% B- A F A+ C A+ A+ C- A+ B+ D+ F D+ F 35% 33% 33% B+ F+ D B- C- A+ F A+ F+
1.35 73% 50% 39% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.7 .39 10% .53 70% .38 0.91 60% 50% 36% +5 -2 1.09 30% 1.0 .30 30% .46 60% .28
Nov
9		 Oklahoma St. F F+ F F F 37% 4% 60% A- F B- F D- F+ B- A+ A- C D D B+ C+ 50% 9% 41% D+ C+ C- B C+ D C C+ C
0.87 47% 0% 26% -13 +2 0.81 32% 0.6 .20 22% .30 82% .25 1.20 64% 40% 30% +1 +2 1.09 32% 0.9 .30 12% .35 73% .25
Nov
14		 Central Florida D F A F+ F 42% 8% 50% A F B- A+ A D+ A+ B A+ C+ D+ A+ F F 33% 18% 49% C F A+ C+ A+ A+ C F F+
0.99 38% 50% 28% -12 +2 0.82 27% 1.4 .38 19% .49 77% .38 1.15 65% 22% 52% +13 0 1.27 21% 1.2 .25 21% .29 94% .27
Nov
18		 Montana A- A+ A+ C+ A+ 43% 14% 43% B+ A+ D- F F C+ A+ B- A+ D- C F F F 30% 12% 58% C F A+ F A- C A- A+ A+
1.23 81% 71% 33% +14 +1 1.33 23% 0.0 .00 14% .48 72% .35 1.16 60% 67% 52% +20 +1 1.42 12% 1.3 .15 20% .23 54% .13
Nov
21		 Manhattan A+ A D- A+ A+ 44% 5% 52% A A+ F A+ D+ A C+ C+ C+ B+ C B F F+ 37% 24% 39% C D- A A+ A+ A D+ A+ B+
1.46 74% 33% 47% +17 +2 1.40 25% 1.4 .36 11% .26 76% .20 0.91 56% 33% 42% +3 -1 1.06 19% 0.7 .14 21% .32 58% .19
Nov
25		 Mississippi Valley A- D- A A+ B- 39% 4% 58% A- B C C C B- A+ A A+ D- F+ F F F 35% 25% 40% F F F A D A+ F+ D+ F+
1.39 55% 50% 45% +9 +2 1.25 37% 1.2 .46 15% .68 84% .57 0.97 65% 50% 53% +16 -1 1.33 40% 0.7 .27 36% .34 74% .25
Nov
28		 Florida St. A+ D F A+ A+ 41% 7% 52% A A+ A+ D- A D+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 14% 56% B A+ D+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ A+
1.26 52% 0% 52% +9 +2 1.23 52% 0.8 .43 21% .42 80% .34 0.78 41% 13% 22% -19 0 0.65 34% 0.9 .31 21% .29 47% .13
Dec
2		 Pittsburgh A+ C+ A+ D+ C 51% 9% 40% A B- A+ C A A- A+ A+ A+ C+ D B+ B- C+ 33% 18% 49% B- C+ C F F C A B A
1.25 58% 50% 32% 0 +2 1.06 41% 0.9 .38 14% .39 91% .36 1.13 65% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 35% 1.3 .47 17% .20 64% .13
Dec
7		 SMU D- A- B- F C- 27% 18% 55% C+ C- B+ F C- C- A+ F+ A+ A- D+ C- A+ A+ 34% 31% 34% B A+ A+ F D+ D+ F F F
0.94 67% 40% 27% -3 0 0.95 36% 0.7 .24 19% .49 65% .32 1.10 65% 44% 25% 0 -2 0.98 24% 1.9 .44 13% .38 93% .35
Dec
14		 Jacksonville A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 41% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- C- C C- C C+ F F+ F 39% 12% 49% D- F C+ A+ A A+ C- F D-
1.46 65% 67% 50% +18 +1 1.39 52% 1.2 .64 16% .36 70% .25 0.98 53% 67% 38% +4 +1 1.12 26% 0.7 .18 25% .30 82% .24
Dec
21		 East Texas A&M A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 47% 16% 38% C+ A+ C A+ A+ C+ F F F C+ B B A+ A 35% 19% 46% C+ A- F A C C+ F F F
1.41 87% 40% 46% +20 +1 1.45 32% 1.8 .58 17% .22 53% .11 0.92 53% 30% 24% -10 0 0.81 31% 0.7 .21 19% .47 75% .35
Dec
29		 Prairie View B+ B+ D- A- B 45% 10% 45% B B D+ B- C B A D B+ C+ A C- C+ C+ 31% 36% 33% B B- B- F F B- F D+ F
1.29 67% 33% 41% +8 +2 1.22 34% 1.1 .39 16% .48 69% .33 0.95 44% 38% 32% -5 -3 0.86 20% 1.7 .33 17% .44 77% .34
Jan
3		 LSU C- A+ F D+ B+ 40% 16% 44% B B+ A F D F A- B+ A A F A+ C+ B 33% 29% 38% A+ B+ A+ F B+ A+ C D C-
1.04 80% 13% 32% +3 +1 1.10 39% 0.5 .21 21% .37 71% .26 1.00 75% 21% 33% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.4 .33 22% .36 80% .28
Jan
6		 Auburn A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 12% 52% B+ A+ A- A+ A+ C B+ F C+ B- A+ F B+ A 41% 12% 47% C- A- F+ F F A- F C+ F
1.23 53% 83% 44% +11 +1 1.27 36% 1.3 .48 19% .34 65% .22 1.20 45% 83% 30% -2 +1 1.00 46% 1.3 .59 18% .52 74% .38
Jan
10		 Oklahoma B+ C+ A+ C B 36% 15% 49% B+ B C F F A A+ A+ A+ B+ A B D+ B+ 30% 16% 54% B- B+ F A- D A+ C+ F+ C-
1.18 58% 50% 35% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.6 .18 11% .40 84% .34 1.08 47% 38% 37% -1 0 1.00 44% 1.1 .50 24% .30 81% .24
Jan
13		 Tennessee B- D F B- B 32% 2% 67% A B+ C- F F+ B A+ C A+ A B+ A- A+ A+ 34% 26% 40% A- A+ D+ A B A F D F
0.99 50% 0% 34% -3 +2 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 16% .46 66% .30 1.05 53% 31% 25% -9 -1 0.82 49% 0.9 .43 23% .66 74% .48
Jan
17		 Texas A C- A+ B+ B+ 55% 6% 38% A+ A D A+ B- A+ C F D+ A C- B- B+ A- 30% 28% 43% A A- A A+ A+ D F C- F
1.19 54% 67% 39% +2 +3 1.13 19% 1.5 .28 10% .34 63% .21 1.13 64% 38% 30% -1 -2 0.98 31% 0.6 .20 13% .48 77% .37
Jan
21		 Mississippi St. A+ D F A- C+ 45% 14% 41% A+ B B- D+ C A+ A A+ A+ A- C F B C- 36% 24% 40% C C B- A+ A+ B+ B- C+ B-
1.25 50% 25% 38% -3 +1 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 4% .36 96% .34 0.97 61% 58% 30% +4 -1 1.08 30% 0.5 .14 19% .26 67% .17
Jan
24		 South Carolina A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 28% 7% 65% B+ A+ A- B+ A B+ F A+ D- B+ A+ B D A- 41% 20% 39% C- B+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ F A-
1.32 56% 75% 43% +11 +1 1.26 36% 1.1 .39 13% .16 90% .15 0.99 43% 36% 36% -5 0 0.93 19% 0.7 .14 14% .20 100% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Georgia A+ C A+ B A- 45% 4% 51% A+ A B A- A- B- A- A+ A+ A+ A C A- A+ 41% 19% 40% B A+ B A+ A D+ A+ D- A+
1.20 54% 100% 37% +3 +3 1.13 38% 1.1 .41 18% .32 95% .30 1.00 50% 42% 28% -6 0 0.90 33% 0.8 .27 13% .15 80% .12
Feb
4		 Alabama A+ A- D- A+ A+ 36% 16% 48% B+ A+ F A+ C A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ F F B C+ 22% 8% 70% B B- B+ A A F F A D-
1.24 64% 30% 41% +6 0 1.15 14% 1.8 .25 8% .39 71% .28 1.28 85% 60% 31% +4 0 1.12 30% 1.0 .30 8% .44 69% .30
Feb
7		 Florida C F+ A+ F D- 44% 7% 49% A+ C- A+ D B A B B B C C C- B- B- 50% 13% 37% C B- B- A+ A+ D C- F+ D
0.94 42% 50% 26% -12 +2 0.82 37% 0.6 .21 13% .31 74% .23 1.21 63% 43% 30% +1 +2 1.07 41% 0.8 .32 13% .37 78% .29
Feb
11		 Missouri A+ B A+ A+ A+ 39% 4% 57% A+ A+ D+ F F A- C- B+ C F+ F A+ D- D 49% 17% 34% C- D F A+ C+ F+ A+ A A+
1.30 60% 50% 52% +16 +2 1.39 26% 0.3 .06 14% .26 80% .21 1.31 77% 11% 39% +7 +1 1.19 47% 0.9 .41 14% .26 60% .16
Feb
14		 Vanderbilt C+ B- F C- C+ 47% 9% 45% A+ B A F D A- F F F B B B C+ A 30% 19% 51% B A C- C- D+ C F C F
0.99 59% 0% 31% -5 +2 0.97 36% 0.5 .18 16% .17 50% .09 1.18 57% 33% 33% -2 0 0.98 34% 1.3 .43 13% .48 79% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.5 1.1 5.9 3rd
4th 0.1 3.7 6.3 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 11.3 2.3 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.2 7.7 9.6 0.1 17.6 6th
7th 0.0 3.0 13.6 2.4 19.0 7th
8th 0.9 8.7 6.6 0.1 16.2 8th
9th 0.0 2.6 5.8 0.6 8.9 9th
10th 0.3 2.6 1.1 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.8 6.8 18.7 29.8 27.3 13.9 2.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.8% 99.5% 7.6% 91.8% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.4%
12-6 13.9% 97.2% 4.8% 92.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.3 4.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 97.0%
11-7 27.3% 91.9% 2.5% 89.4% 8.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.0 8.0 7.8 3.5 0.5 2.2 91.6%
10-8 29.8% 83.4% 1.8% 81.7% 9.2 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.8 8.1 7.9 2.3 4.9 83.1%
9-9 18.7% 68.8% 1.0% 67.8% 9.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 5.2 3.7 0.0 5.8 68.5%
8-10 6.8% 35.3% 1.0% 34.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.1 4.4 34.6%
7-11 0.8% 10.5% 0.7% 9.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 9.9%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 81.5% 2.3% 79.2% 8.7 18.5 81.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.8 4.8 23.8 57.1 11.9 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 5.5 1.1 12.8 37.2 37.2 10.6 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 99.4% 6.1 3.9 23.2 37.4 27.7 7.1
Lose Out 0.3%