Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.6 #259
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 #239
Pace 67.1 #228
Improvement +2.6 #73

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #299 D D+ D C- D+
Defense #201 D+ B- C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #31 1.09 #259 +2.4 #105
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #28 0.75 #185 +3.5 #35
Three Pointers 25% #365 0.84 #356 -10.4 #365
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #315 -4.6 #315
Freethrows 0.28 #279 75% #95 0.21 #237
Second Chance 32.0% #144 0.86 #351 0.27 #264
Turnovers 19.1% #304
Total Offense -4.8 #299

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #48 1.21 #259 -4.4 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #307 0.64 #20 +2.6 #16
Three Pointers 40% #215 1.13 #331 -1.8 #265
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #292 -3.6 #293
Freethrows 0.34 #282 72% #171 0.24 #274
Second Chance 29.4% #124 0.95 #80 0.28 #92
Turnovers 17.9% #123
Total Defense -0.8 #201

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #286 1.9% #337
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.4% #307 5.0% #276
Possession Length 17.4 #188 17.0 #151
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #102 0.18 #193
Improvement +1.5 #98 +1.2 #116

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 52.7% 74.9% 38.4%
.500 or above in Conference 60.1% 83.0% 45.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round1.0% 1.7% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Away) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 92 - 10
Quad 413 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 151 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 20% -13  0 - 1 -32 -22 F F F -9 F A- C
 Sat, Nov 8 171 @Tulane L 71 - 79 23% +6  0 - 2 -6 +2 D+ B- B- -9 D- A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 12 342 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 81% +10  1 - 2 -4 +0 F A- B+ -4 C+ D+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 310 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 73% +12  2 - 2 -2 -3 D+ A+ F +1 C- B+ A-
 Tue, Nov 18 268 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 63% +11  3 - 2 +5 -6 D F+ F +12 A+ D+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 69% +5  4 - 2 -2 -8 C F F +7 B+ B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 125 Seattle L 52 - 66 23% -5  4 - 3 -12 -6 C- F C- -8 F A- D
 Sat, Nov 29 300 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 60% +1  4 - 4 -12 -2 D+ C- D- -10 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 232 @Rice L 72 - 77 33% -2  4 - 5 -6 -1 D+ F C+ -5 B F C
 Wed, Dec 10 265 Southern W 86 - 83 63% -2  5 - 5 -6 -0 A- F F+ -6 F C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 168 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 43% -8  5 - 6 0 - 1 -23 -8 F C C -14 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 196 South Alabama W 67 - 65 49% -6  6 - 6 1 - 1 -3 -2 F B+ C -1 C B B
 Wed, Dec 31 141 @Troy L 80 - 100 18% -8  6 - 7 1 - 2 -16 +11 C A+ C- -28 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 73% +3  7 - 7 2 - 2 -7 +2 F+ A D+ -9 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 251 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 37% +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 -12 -8 F C- C- -3 D B- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 168 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 83 23% -5  7 - 9 2 - 4 +1 +2 D+ A+ F -0 B- A- B-
 Wed, Jan 14 302 Louisiana W 59 - 54 71% +5  8 - 9 3 - 4 -6 -8 B F D +3 B- B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 251 Southern Miss W 74 - 67 60% +3  9 - 9 4 - 4 -1 -2 C D- F +1 C A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 238 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 34% -3  9 - 10 4 - 5 -3 -0 F D+ A+ -3 C B D
 Sat, Jan 24 205 @James Madison L 57 - 82 29% -17  9 - 11 4 - 6 -25 -11 F F B- -16 F D C
 Wed, Jan 28 153 Marshall W 72 - 68 40% +4  10 - 11 5 - 6 +1 -1 C- B+ D+ +2 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 243 Old Dominion W 81 - 64 58% +12  11 - 11 6 - 6 +9 +6 C+ D- A- +3 B+ C B+
 Wed, Feb 4 260 @Georgia Southern L 74 - 77 39%
 Sat, Feb 7 273 Western Michigan W 75 - 71 63%
 Wed, Feb 11 141 Troy L 69 - 73 36%
 Sat, Feb 14 360 Louisiana Monroe W 81 - 68 88%
 Thu, Feb 19 196 @South Alabama L 63 - 69 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 302 @Louisiana L 64 - 65 49%
 Fri, Feb 27 173 Appalachian St. L 64 - 66 44%
Totals 14 - 15 9 - 9 -6 -5 D D+ D -1 D+ B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 0.6 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.7 2.9 0.2 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 4.1 2.8 6.9 4th
5th 0.9 8.4 0.5 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 5.6 5.9 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.6 12.9 1.5 15.0 7th
8th 0.0 5.0 9.5 0.1 14.6 8th
9th 0.4 10.7 1.9 13.0 9th
10th 2.2 7.9 0.1 10.2 10th
11th 0.1 4.6 2.4 0.0 7.0 11th
12th 0.7 3.6 0.2 4.5 12th
13th 0.7 0.9 1.6 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.5 11.6 26.8 30.9 20.7 7.4 1.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 28.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.1% 12.7% 12.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
11-7 7.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.1
10-8 20.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.2 0.2 20.4
9-9 30.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.1 0.1 30.8
8-10 26.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 26.8
7-11 11.6% 11.6
6-12 1.5% 1.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.3 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.8%