Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#241
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#241
Pace65.5#284
Improvement+1.2#98

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#272
First Shot-1.8#225
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#317
Layup/Dunks+4.3#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.2#360
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement+1.3#83

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#183
First Shot-2.3#254
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#66
Layups/Dunks-1.6#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#201
Freethrows-1.9#298
Improvement-0.1#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 4.6% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.1
.500 or above 45.3% 59.7% 34.3%
.500 or above in Conference 51.2% 66.0% 39.8%
Conference Champion 3.5% 6.3% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.1% 4.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round3.0% 4.5% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 43.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 83 - 10
Quad 411 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 124 @Bowling Green L 48-83 18%     0 - 1 -29.6 -21.0 -8.3
  Sat, Nov 8 205 @Tulane L 71-79 33%     0 - 2 -8.0 -0.6 -7.8
  Wed, Nov 12 287 Texas San Antonio W 80-69 70%     1 - 2 +1.1 +3.9 -2.9
  Sat, Nov 15 318 Texas Southern W 77-67 77%     2 - 2 -2.3 -1.6 -0.8
  Tue, Nov 18 219 Abilene Christian W 63-49 58%     3 - 2 +7.5 -4.0 +13.0
  Fri, Nov 21 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 65-56 77%     4 - 2 -3.0 -8.2 +5.9
  Fri, Nov 28 118 Seattle L 52-66 23%     4 - 3 -10.8 -10.2 -2.7
  Sat, Nov 29 309 Lehigh L 74-78 OT 65%     4 - 4 -12.3 -2.9 -9.4
  Wed, Dec 3 207 @Rice L 72-77 34%     4 - 5 -5.1 +1.2 -6.4
  Wed, Dec 10 201 Southern W 86-83 55%     5 - 5 -2.8 +1.5 -4.6
  Wed, Dec 17 153 Arkansas St. L 73-75 43%    
  Sat, Dec 20 180 South Alabama L 66-67 50%    
  Wed, Dec 31 143 @Troy L 65-74 22%    
  Sat, Jan 3 357 @Louisiana Monroe W 75-68 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 200 @Southern Miss L 68-73 34%    
  Sat, Jan 10 153 @Arkansas St. L 70-78 24%    
  Wed, Jan 14 325 Louisiana W 67-59 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 200 Southern Miss W 71-70 55%    
  Thu, Jan 22 245 @Coastal Carolina L 68-71 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 183 @James Madison L 67-73 30%    
  Wed, Jan 28 160 Marshall L 70-72 44%    
  Sat, Jan 31 215 Old Dominion W 72-70 56%    
  Wed, Feb 4 236 @Georgia Southern L 73-76 38%    
  Wed, Feb 11 143 Troy L 68-71 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 357 Louisiana Monroe W 78-65 87%    
  Thu, Feb 19 180 @South Alabama L 63-69 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 325 @Louisiana W 64-62 58%    
  Fri, Feb 27 233 Appalachian St. W 65-62 59%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 3.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 2.7 1.1 0.1 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.9 1.9 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.6 3.1 0.3 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.9 1.0 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.3 2.8 0.1 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.6 4.3 0.5 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.5 1.3 0.0 10.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.2 2.3 0.1 10.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.7 3.3 6.4 9.7 12.7 14.4 13.9 13.1 10.0 6.7 4.3 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 97.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 86.4% 0.8    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 58.2% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.5% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 34.8% 34.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.9% 24.2% 24.2% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.1% 20.3% 20.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.6
13-5 4.3% 17.4% 17.4% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.6
12-6 6.7% 9.7% 9.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 6.1
11-7 10.0% 4.2% 4.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.5
10-8 13.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 12.8
9-9 13.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.1 0.1 13.8
8-10 14.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 14.3
7-11 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
6-12 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
5-13 6.4% 6.4
4-14 3.3% 3.3
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.8 96.9 0.0%