IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.7	#229
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	77.4	#13
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.1	#165

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.6	#291

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.5%	6.3%	3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.4	13.6	14.3

.500 or above	33.4%	48.1%	22.5%
.500 or above in Conference	51.8%	62.1%	44.1%
Conference Champion	4.9%	7.3%	3.0%
Last Place in Conference	6.0%	3.4%	8.0%

First Four	0.4%	0.3%	0.5%
First Round	4.4%	6.4%	3.0%
Second Round	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Away) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 7	4 - 12
Quad 4	9 - 5	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	251	@ Norfolk St.	L	75-77	43%
Nov 11, 2025	137	@ Richmond	L	69-77	22%
Nov 15, 2025	8	@ St. John's	L	68-93	1%
Nov 19, 2025	220	@ Bowling Green	L	77-80	39%
Nov 23, 2025	157	UTEP	L	75-79	37%
Nov 25, 2025	175	Abilene Christian	L	76-78	41%
Nov 30, 2025	200	Old Dominion	W	77-75	55%
Dec 02, 2025	115	@ Duquesne	L	69-79	19%
Dec 06, 2025	85	@ George Washington	L	72-85	13%
Dec 18, 2025	150	Radford	L	72-73	47%
Dec 29, 2025	131	Towson	L	71-74	41%
Dec 31, 2025	288	Stony Brook	W	77-71	70%
Jan 05, 2026	123	@ College of Charleston	L	77-86	22%
Jan 08, 2026	211	@ Monmouth	L	75-79	38%
Jan 10, 2026	227	@ Drexel	L	68-71	40%
Jan 15, 2026	351	N.C. A&T	W	85-73	83%
Jan 22, 2026	118	UNC Wilmington	L	74-77	39%
Jan 24, 2026	178	Hofstra	W	70-69	52%
Jan 29, 2026	228	@ Elon	L	73-76	40%
Jan 31, 2026	203	Campbell	W	76-74	56%
Feb 05, 2026	118	@ UNC Wilmington	L	71-80	22%
Feb 07, 2026	236	@ Hampton	L	73-75	42%
Feb 12, 2026	226	@ Northeastern	L	75-78	39%
Feb 14, 2026	228	Elon	W	76-73	59%
Feb 19, 2026	203	@ Campbell	L	73-77	36%
Feb 26, 2026	226	Northeastern	W	78-75	59%
Feb 28, 2026	351	@ N.C. A&T	W	82-76	68%
Mar 03, 2026	236	Hampton	W	76-72	62%
Projected Record						12 - 16	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.6	1.3	1.3	1.0	0.4	0.0		4.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.5	2.6	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.0			7.0	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.9	3.2	1.9	0.4	0.0					7.6	3rd
4th										0.2	1.9	4.0	2.3	0.4	0.0						8.8	4th
5th									0.1	1.7	4.5	2.8	0.4	0.0							9.5	5th
6th								0.1	1.2	4.3	3.3	0.5	0.0								9.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	3.8	3.8	0.7	0.0									9.0	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	3.0	4.5	1.3	0.1										9.4	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	2.4	4.3	1.7	0.1											8.8	9th
10th				0.0	0.4	2.1	3.8	2.1	0.2												8.6	10th
11th			0.0	0.5	1.7	3.2	2.0	0.3	0.0												7.7	11th
12th		0.0	0.5	1.6	2.2	1.3	0.2	0.0													5.8	12th
13th	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0														3.4	13th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.5	3.2	4.8	7.1	8.9	10.4	11.7	11.5	10.8	9.4	7.6	5.5	3.5	2.1	1.1	0.4	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	98.9%	0.4		0.3	0.0
16-2	91.8%	1.0		0.8	0.2	0.0
15-3	62.8%	1.3		0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-4	37.6%	1.3		0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0
13-5	11.9%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0
12-6	1.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.9%	4.9		2.7	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		44.4%	44.4%		11.5											0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0
17-1	0.4%		34.2%	34.2%		11.8										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2
16-2	1.1%		33.2%	33.2%		12.4												0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.7
15-3	2.1%		25.4%	25.4%		12.7												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.6
14-4	3.5%		17.3%	17.3%		13.3												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0		2.9
13-5	5.5%		13.2%	13.2%		13.9												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	4.8
12-6	7.6%		9.1%	9.1%		14.5													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	6.9
11-7	9.4%		6.2%	6.2%		15.0														0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	8.8
10-8	10.8%		3.3%	3.3%		17.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	10.4
9-9	11.5%		2.3%	2.3%		17.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	11.2
8-10	11.7%		0.8%	0.8%		19.1															0.0	0.0	0.1	11.6
7-11	10.4%		0.6%	0.6%		15.9																0.0	0.0	10.3
6-12	8.9%		0.3%	0.3%		18.7																	0.0	8.9
5-13	7.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
4-14	4.8%																							4.8
3-15	3.2%																							3.2
2-16	1.5%																							1.5
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		4.5%	4.5%	0.0%	14.4										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	1.1	1.1	1.0	0.7	95.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%