William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#120
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#71
Pace83.3#5
Improvement+0.8#117

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#132
First Shot+2.3#116
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#243
Layup/Dunks+0.8#150
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#91
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement-0.5#223

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#115
First Shot+2.6#88
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#265
Layups/Dunks-2.6#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#10
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#78
Freethrows-0.3#205
Improvement+1.3#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.6% 20.5% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 96.5% 97.5% 90.4%
.500 or above in Conference 91.8% 92.6% 86.7%
Conference Champion 28.4% 29.7% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round19.5% 20.5% 14.0%
Second Round2.3% 2.4% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Home) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 37 - 48 - 8
Quad 412 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 226 @Norfolk St. W 81-78 65%     1 - 0 +2.0 +3.8 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 11 104 @Richmond L 86-90 34%     1 - 1 +3.2 +8.8 -5.3
  Sat, Nov 15 18 @St. John's L 60-93 6%     1 - 2 -12.8 -10.5 +1.8
  Wed, Nov 19 125 @Bowling Green W 82-74 40%     2 - 2 +13.5 +5.1 +7.6
  Mon, Nov 24 216 UTEP W 74-63 73%     3 - 2 +7.5 -2.0 +9.0
  Tue, Nov 25 223 Abilene Christian W 92-58 74%     4 - 2 +30.3 +13.9 +14.3
  Sun, Nov 30 205 Old Dominion W 88-75 80%     5 - 2 +7.0 +1.7 +3.8
  Tue, Dec 2 140 @Duquesne W 83-79 45%     6 - 2 +8.3 +4.1 +3.8
  Sat, Dec 6 79 @George Washington L 86-99 24%     6 - 3 -2.7 +6.8 -8.2
  Thu, Dec 18 253 Radford W 92-81 86%    
  Mon, Dec 29 137 Towson W 77-72 66%    
  Wed, Dec 31 239 Stony Brook W 81-71 83%    
  Mon, Jan 5 185 @College of Charleston W 81-79 56%    
  Thu, Jan 8 237 @Monmouth W 82-78 65%    
  Sat, Jan 10 287 @Drexel W 79-72 73%    
  Thu, Jan 15 304 N.C. A&T W 88-74 90%    
  Thu, Jan 22 108 UNC Wilmington W 79-77 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 115 Hofstra W 79-76 59%    
  Thu, Jan 29 180 @Elon W 84-83 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 229 Campbell W 89-79 82%    
  Thu, Feb 5 108 @UNC Wilmington L 76-80 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 227 @Hampton W 78-74 64%    
  Thu, Feb 12 212 @Northeastern W 81-78 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 180 Elon W 87-80 74%    
  Thu, Feb 19 229 @Campbell W 86-82 64%    
  Thu, Feb 26 212 Northeastern W 84-75 79%    
  Sat, Feb 28 304 @N.C. A&T W 85-77 75%    
  Tue, Mar 3 227 Hampton W 81-71 81%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.9 8.3 5.9 2.6 0.7 28.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.3 7.1 5.6 1.8 0.3 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.8 7.0 3.9 0.9 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.1 0.3 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 4.2 6.9 9.8 12.3 14.9 15.0 13.4 10.1 6.1 2.6 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.5 0.0
16-2 95.2% 5.9    5.1 0.7 0.0
15-3 81.7% 8.3    5.7 2.3 0.2
14-4 51.4% 6.9    3.4 2.8 0.7 0.0
13-5 23.2% 3.5    0.8 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.4% 28.4 18.3 7.7 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 57.7% 55.8% 1.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4.3%
17-1 2.6% 45.7% 45.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.4
16-2 6.1% 36.3% 36.3% 12.1 0.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.9
15-3 10.1% 32.2% 32.2% 12.4 0.1 1.9 1.2 0.0 6.9
14-4 13.4% 27.1% 27.1% 12.7 0.0 1.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.8
13-5 15.0% 22.2% 22.2% 12.9 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.6 0.0 11.7
12-6 14.9% 17.2% 17.2% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 12.3
11-7 12.3% 12.4% 12.4% 13.4 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 10.7
10-8 9.8% 8.8% 8.8% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.9
9-9 6.9% 4.9% 4.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.5
8-10 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0
7-11 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
6-12 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 19.6% 19.5% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 6.8 8.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 80.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.1 7.1 0.9 3.5 12.4 19.5 48.7 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 11.1% 11.5 5.6 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%