Preseason Rankings
Yale
Ivy League
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#92
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.5#165
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#84
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#108
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.3% 45.5% 34.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.8
.500 or above 94.9% 97.4% 88.5%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 95.5% 89.9%
Conference Champion 55.7% 59.9% 44.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.6% 1.9%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round42.3% 45.4% 34.2%
Second Round8.0% 9.3% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.2% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Away) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 36 - 37 - 5
Quad 412 - 219 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 224   @ Navy W 74-68 72%    
  Nov 11, 2025 215   @ Quinnipiac W 79-73 71%    
  Nov 15, 2025 288   Stony Brook W 77-61 93%    
  Nov 18, 2025 146   Rhode Island W 79-71 76%    
  Nov 21, 2025 314   Green Bay W 81-67 90%    
  Nov 30, 2025 205   @ Vermont W 68-63 68%    
  Dec 07, 2025 154   Illinois-Chicago W 78-69 77%    
  Dec 10, 2025 302   Albany W 80-66 88%    
  Dec 29, 2025 18   @ Alabama L 75-89 12%    
  Jan 05, 2026 168   @ Brown W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 10, 2026 171   @ Princeton W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 17, 2026 160   Cornell W 83-74 78%    
  Jan 19, 2026 265   Columbia W 85-71 89%    
  Jan 24, 2026 278   @ Penn W 78-69 77%    
  Jan 30, 2026 230   Dartmouth W 80-68 85%    
  Jan 31, 2026 172   Harvard W 74-64 79%    
  Feb 06, 2026 168   Brown W 74-64 79%    
  Feb 09, 2026 324   @ Howard W 81-69 85%    
  Feb 13, 2026 230   @ Dartmouth W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 14, 2026 172   @ Harvard W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 21, 2026 278   Penn W 81-66 89%    
  Feb 27, 2026 160   @ Cornell W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 28, 2026 265   @ Columbia W 82-74 75%    
  Mar 07, 2026 171   Princeton W 76-66 78%    
Projected Record 18 - 6 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.6 12.9 15.4 13.4 7.1 55.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.9 7.8 4.2 1.0 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.1 4.1 1.2 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.4 0.2 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.0 5.3 8.2 11.7 14.7 17.2 16.5 13.4 7.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 7.1    7.1
13-1 100.0% 13.4    13.0 0.3
12-2 93.8% 15.4    13.1 2.4 0.0
11-3 74.7% 12.9    7.9 4.4 0.5
10-4 38.0% 5.6    2.0 2.6 0.9 0.1
9-5 10.6% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 55.7% 55.7 43.3 10.2 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 7.1% 78.7% 76.4% 2.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 1.5 9.8%
13-1 13.4% 64.9% 64.3% 0.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.0 3.4 0.7 0.1 4.7 1.9%
12-2 16.5% 55.3% 55.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 4.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.4
11-3 17.2% 46.1% 46.1% 12.5 0.5 3.6 2.8 0.9 0.1 9.3
10-4 14.7% 37.5% 37.5% 13.1 0.1 1.5 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.2
9-5 11.7% 29.3% 29.3% 13.8 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 8.2
8-6 8.2% 20.8% 20.8% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 6.5
7-7 5.3% 7.0% 7.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 4.9
6-8 3.0% 0.7% 0.7% 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
5-9 1.7% 1.7
4-10 0.8% 0.8
3-11 0.4% 0.4
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 42.3% 42.1% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.2 9.1 14.3 9.5 4.7 1.5 0.3 57.7 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 5.7 1.7 2.8 6.6 15.4 27.5 16.5 12.2 3.8 6.0 4.9 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 41.2% 9.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 13.7 9.3 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 56.0% 9.2 6.1 6.3 37.5 6.1