Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#78
Expected Predictive Rating+11.8#53
Pace66.8#253
Improvement-3.5#353

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#22
First Shot+7.4#22
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#93
Layup/Dunks+4.3#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
Freethrows+2.8#34
Improvement-2.2#337

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#221
First Shot-3.0#277
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#72
Layups/Dunks+0.1#162
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#285
Freethrows+1.4#91
Improvement-1.3#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 2.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.8% 61.0% 55.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 3.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.9 11.1 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.7% 98.8%
Conference Champion 74.9% 81.5% 74.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
First Round55.8% 60.5% 55.2%
Second Round11.5% 16.8% 10.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 3.5% 2.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 10.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 1
Quad 38 - 310 - 4
Quad 413 - 123 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 207 @Navy W 97-68 76%     1 - 0 +29.0 +18.6 +8.2
  Tue, Nov 11 157 @Quinnipiac W 97-60 66%     2 - 0 +40.1 +25.0 +14.4
  Sat, Nov 15 239 Stony Brook W 86-79 91%     3 - 0 -0.4 +18.0 -17.8
  Tue, Nov 18 116 Rhode Island L 77-86 75%     3 - 1 -8.6 +10.0 -19.1
  Fri, Nov 21 264 Green Bay W 73-67 88%     4 - 1 +0.3 +5.7 -4.6
  Sun, Nov 23 185 College of Charleston W 74-63 80%     5 - 1 +9.3 +5.5 +4.7
  Mon, Nov 24 66 Akron W 97-94 46%     6 - 1 +11.5 +28.8 -17.1
  Sun, Nov 30 175 @Vermont W 77-74 70%     7 - 1 +4.9 +12.5 -7.1
  Sun, Dec 7 192 Illinois-Chicago W 80-66 87%     8 - 1 +9.0 +10.4 -0.4
  Wed, Dec 10 306 Albany W 93-82 92%     9 - 1 +2.8 +12.2 -9.9
  Mon, Dec 29 16 @Alabama L 82-95 11%    
  Mon, Jan 5 222 @Brown W 75-67 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 257 @Princeton W 79-69 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 162 Cornell W 93-82 84%    
  Mon, Jan 19 133 Columbia W 83-74 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 254 @Penn W 85-75 81%    
  Fri, Jan 30 208 Dartmouth W 87-74 89%    
  Sat, Jan 31 200 Harvard W 81-68 88%    
  Fri, Feb 6 222 Brown W 78-64 90%    
  Mon, Feb 9 283 @Howard W 82-71 83%    
  Fri, Feb 13 208 @Dartmouth W 84-77 75%    
  Sat, Feb 14 200 @Harvard W 78-71 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 254 Penn W 88-72 92%    
  Fri, Feb 27 162 @Cornell W 90-85 66%    
  Sat, Feb 28 133 @Columbia W 80-77 59%    
  Sat, Mar 7 257 Princeton W 82-66 92%    
Projected Record 21 - 5 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 7.2 16.5 22.3 18.9 8.4 74.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.6 6.5 3.5 0.6 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 4.1 8.5 14.3 20.0 22.9 18.9 8.4 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 8.4    8.4
13-1 100.0% 18.9    18.7 0.2
12-2 97.5% 22.3    20.1 2.2 0.0
11-3 82.3% 16.5    11.6 4.6 0.2
10-4 50.5% 7.2    2.9 3.4 0.8 0.0
9-5 17.8% 1.5    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
8-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 74.9% 74.9 61.9 11.1 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 8.4% 75.0% 73.0% 2.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 3.6 1.4 0.1 2.1 7.2%
13-1 18.9% 67.2% 66.9% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.1 6.8 0.6 0.0 6.2 0.9%
12-2 22.9% 61.3% 61.3% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 2.9 9.3 1.8 0.1 8.9 0.1%
11-3 20.0% 54.3% 54.3% 12.2 0.7 7.0 3.0 0.2 9.1
10-4 14.3% 46.7% 46.7% 12.4 0.2 3.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.6
9-5 8.5% 43.3% 43.3% 12.7 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.8
8-6 4.1% 33.6% 33.6% 12.9 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.7
7-7 1.8% 14.0% 14.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-8 0.8% 0.8
5-9 0.2% 0.2
4-10 0.1% 0.1
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 55.8% 55.6% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 12.5 30.2 10.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 44.2 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 8.0 1.1 1.5 10.6 18.3 10.6 12.2 13.3 16.7 14.8 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 26.8% 10.7 7.3 19.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 28.9% 10.8 5.3 23.7