Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 #180
Expected Predictive Rating +1.5 #142
Pace 71.4 #112
Improvement -0.3 #204

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #262 D- C B D+ C+
Defense #117 C B+ B+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.03 #318 -1.6 #238
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #208 0.72 #227 -1.1 #229
Three Pointers 41% #183 0.91 #301 -2.1 #264
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #311 -4.8 #311
Freethrows 16.7 #228 68% #311 11.3 #262
Second Chance 28.9% #232 1.07 #160 0.31 #197
Turnovers 14.8% #69
Total Offense -3.2 #262

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #255 1.22 #254 +0.5 #154
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #171 0.75 #166 +0.1 #181
Three Pointers 44% #106 1.02 #205 -1.6 #253
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #213 -1.0 #212
Freethrows 17.4 #187 65% #1 11.2 #272
Second Chance 29.9% #149 0.85 #16 0.25 #39
Turnovers 19.4% #52
Total Defense +1.7 #117

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #136 -0.4% #137
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.2% #332 2.3% #227
Possession Length 16.9 #145 16.7 #94
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #104 0.20 #266
Improvement +2.0 #75 -2.3 #311

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.4% 22.9% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 96.3% 98.2% 91.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.4% 95.9%
Conference Champion 43.3% 49.3% 26.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
First Round21.3% 22.8% 17.1%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 73.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 6
Quad 416 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 342 @Air Force W 74 - 54 74% +10  1 - 0 +12 -2 B- D- F +13 C A- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 96 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 17% -5  1 - 1 -6 -11 F C- F +7 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 288 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 61% +3  2 - 1 +2 -11 F C F +12 C A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 65 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 11% -7  2 - 2 +5 -0 F B+ C+ +4 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 93 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 16% +2  2 - 3 -0 +5 B D A -5 F A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 25 331 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 87% +7  3 - 3 +4 +5 A C B+ +1 A- A F
 Wed, Dec 3 146 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 30% -3  3 - 4 -8 +7 A- F C+ -15 F C D+
 Sun, Dec 7 235 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 48% -0  3 - 5 -14 -21 F F C +7 A F A+
 Fri, Dec 12 119 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 45% +6  4 - 5 +1 +3 C+ F A+ -2 D+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 350 North Florida W 102 - 83 91% +8  5 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +7 F A+ A+ -6 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 305 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 82% +2  6 - 5 2 - 0 -8 -5 F D A+ -4 F D- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 201 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 42% +3  7 - 5 3 - 0 +12 +8 D A+ B+ +3 C B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 345 @Stetson W 81 - 69 75% +7  8 - 5 4 - 0 +3 +3 F C+ A+ +0 C D B
 Thu, Jan 15 253 Eastern Kentucky W 78 - 71 74%
 Sat, Jan 17 167 @Lipscomb L 72 - 76 36%
 Thu, Jan 22 201 Florida Gulf Coast W 78 - 74 64%
 Sat, Jan 24 345 Stetson W 80 - 67 89%
 Wed, Jan 28 253 @Eastern Kentucky W 75 - 74 54%
 Sat, Jan 31 320 @West Georgia W 76 - 71 68%
 Thu, Feb 5 167 Lipscomb W 75 - 73 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 279 North Alabama W 75 - 67 77%
 Wed, Feb 11 202 @Queens L 78 - 80 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 294 Bellarmine W 80 - 71 80%
 Thu, Feb 19 350 @North Florida W 85 - 76 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 305 @Jacksonville W 69 - 65 64%
 Wed, Feb 25 265 Central Arkansas W 76 - 69 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 294 @Bellarmine W 77 - 74 61%
Totals 17 - 10 13 - 5 -2 -3 D- C B +2 C B+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 5.0 11.3 12.6 9.0 3.6 0.8 43.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.9 9.6 6.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 25.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.4 6.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 3.8 1.5 0.1 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.9 0.1 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.8 10.1 15.4 18.0 18.2 14.6 9.3 3.7 0.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.9% 3.6    3.6 0.0
16-2 96.7% 9.0    8.1 0.8 0.0
15-3 86.0% 12.6    9.5 2.9 0.2
14-4 62.2% 11.3    5.9 4.5 0.9 0.0
13-5 27.6% 5.0    1.5 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.1% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.3% 43.3 29.4 10.9 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 42.0% 42.0% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4
17-1 3.7% 39.3% 39.3% 13.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.2
16-2 9.3% 35.3% 35.3% 13.9 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.6 6.0
15-3 14.6% 30.0% 30.0% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.7 0.0 10.2
14-4 18.2% 24.2% 24.2% 14.7 0.1 1.5 2.5 0.3 13.8
13-5 18.0% 19.4% 19.4% 14.9 0.1 0.7 2.3 0.4 14.5
12-6 15.4% 15.0% 15.0% 15.1 0.3 1.5 0.6 13.1
11-7 10.1% 11.2% 11.2% 15.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 9.0
10-8 5.8% 8.5% 8.5% 15.6 0.2 0.3 5.3
9-9 2.8% 6.5% 6.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.6
8-10 1.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
7-11 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 14.5 78.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.3 7.9 50.8 41.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%