Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -0.4 167
Results Rating +2.3 126
Consistency 0.11 13
Pace 71.1 109
Improvement +0.9 153

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 184 C- C C C C+
Defense C 159 D+ B+ B- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 92 D+ 54% 279 +0.3 166
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 148 C- 37% 201 -0.5 204
Three Pointers 38% 233 C- 33% 216 -1.7 244
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 136 D+ -2.1 258
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 230
Second Chance C- 28.4% 238 B 1.14 45 C 0.32 145
Opponents' Steals C 9.6% 196
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 131
Turnovers C 16.5% 161
Freethrows C 0.31 180 C+ 74% 132 C 0.23 157
Total Offense C -0.7 184

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 235 D+ 12.7% 285
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 30% 106 C+ 4.2% 128
Three Pointers A 95% 4 F+ 1.9% 348
Total C+ 58% 130 D 6.9% 314

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 100 D 63% 304 +3.7 304
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 206 C 39% 201 -0.3 171
Three Pointers 39% 255 C 34% 204 -1.0 145
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 236 D+ +2.1 264
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 258
Second Chance C- 31.0% 212 A+ 0.78 4 B+ 0.24 30
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.2% 27
Other Turnovers D- 5.8% 348
Turnovers B- 18.0% 101
Freethrows C 0.31 199 B 70% 46 C+ 0.21 161
Total Defense C +0.3 159

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 142 D+ 8.6% 265
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 206 D- 1.7% 338
Three Pointers B- 81% 87 D 0.2% 322
Total C+ 53% 123 D 4.0% 309

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 127 17.1 142
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 112 0.19 261
Consistency 0.14 297 0.11 117
Improvement +5.1 9 -4.2 346

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 184 166 146
Results Rating Rank 157 133 102
Conference Record 15 - 3 16 - 2 16 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29% 30% 26%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round29% 30% 26%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Bellarmine (Away) - 65.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 419 - 121 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 350 @Air Force W 74 - 54 83% +10  95% 1 - 0 B +9 D- -7 C- D F A+ +16 C+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 100 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 21% -5  2% 1 - 1 D+ -6 F -13 F C- F+ A- +8 C+ A A
 Sat, Nov 15 298 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 67% +3  74% 2 - 1 C +1 F -15 F C- D- A+ +16 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 79 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 16% -7  0% 2 - 2 C+ +3 D+ -4 F+ B- C+ B+ +7 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 64 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 13% +2  60% 2 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 B C- B+ C -1 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 321 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 88% +7  79% 3 - 3 C+ +5 B- +4 A B B- B- +2 B+ B F
 Wed, Dec 3 159 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 38% -3  11% 3 - 4 D -9 B- +5 A F C+ F -14 F C- C-
 Sun, Dec 7 144 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 33% -0  42% 3 - 5 D -9 F -23 F D- C- A+ +14 B+ F+ A+
 Fri, Dec 12 135 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 54% +6  98% 4 - 5 C -1 C +0 C+ F B+ C -1 D+ A C+
 Thu, Jan 1 333 North Florida W 102 - 83 90% +8  86% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +5 B- +5 F+ A+ A C- -2 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 305 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 85% +2  65% 6 - 5 2 - 0 D -9 F+ -9 F D- B+ C+ +0 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 257 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 58% +3  67% 7 - 5 3 - 0 B +9 B +6 D+ A+ B- B- +3 D B+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 328 @Stetson W 81 - 69 75% +7  92% 8 - 5 4 - 0 C+ +4 C -0 F+ C+ A+ B +5 B- D+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 287 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 82% +1  58% 9 - 5 5 - 0 D -8 C- -1 F+ A C- D- -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 197 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 45% -2  22% 9 - 6 5 - 1 C- -3 C- -1 D B- D+ C- -2 D- A C-
 Thu, Jan 22 257 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 78% +12  96% 10 - 6 6 - 1 B+ +13 B +6 C B+ A A- +7 C- B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 328 Stetson W 73 - 65 89% +0  34% 11 - 6 7 - 1 D+ -6 D- -8 F A+ D- B- +2 C A C-
 Wed, Jan 28 287 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 64% +10  97% 12 - 6 8 - 1 C+ +4 B- +4 B B- F C -1 B+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 312 @West Georgia W 81 - 78 71% +6  89% 13 - 6 9 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 F F+ B- C -1 D+ A F
 Wed, Feb 4 197 Lipscomb W 87 - 76 68% +4  60% 14 - 6 10 - 1 B- +6 B +7 A+ F B C- -2 D+ C+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 342 North Alabama W 91 - 62 91% +17  90% 15 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +20 A+ A B+ C- -2 D+ A C+
 Wed, Feb 11 199 @Queens W 95 - 87 46% +5  83% 16 - 6 12 - 1 B +9 A- +10 C+ A C C- -2 F A+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 292 Bellarmine W 90 - 70 83% +15  94% 17 - 6 13 - 1 B +9 A+ +16 A- A D+ D+ -4 B F F
 Thu, Feb 19 333 @North Florida W 77 - 76 78% -5  7% 18 - 6 14 - 1 D+ -7 F -15 F D+ D- A- +7 A B- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 305 @Jacksonville W 65 - 61 69% +3  67% 19 - 6 15 - 1 C- -2 D+ -3 F B- A+ C+ +2 C+ B- F+
 Wed, Feb 25 173 Central Arkansas L 88 - 93 64% +5  84% 19 - 7 15 - 2 D -9 A +13 A+ C D- F -22 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 28 292 @Bellarmine W 81 - 77 66%
Totals 20 - 7 16 - 2 +0 C -1 A- D+ C+ C +0 C- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C- C- D+ 42% 40% 38% C+ C- C- B C C C C+ C C D C C D+ 42% 20% 39% C- D+ C- A+ B+ B- C B C+
1.08 54% 37% 33% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.1 .32 16% .31 74% .23 1.08 63% 39% 34% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.8 .24 18% .31 70% .21
Nov
8		 Air Force D- B- A+ D C 30% 23% 47% D+ C- C- F+ D F A+ F A+ A+ D- A+ D C 32% 18% 50% B+ C+ F A+ B+ A+ F A+ B
1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31 0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16
Nov
11		 Wyoming F B- F F F 46% 10% 44% B F D+ C+ C- F+ C+ C+ C+ A- A D- F B- 52% 12% 37% D C+ B A+ A A D- A- D+
0.85 61% 0% 18% -13 +2 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 21% .40 71% .28 1.03 44% 50% 42% -1 +2 1.04 33% 0.7 .23 21% .38 70% .26
Nov
15		 UNC Greensboro F D- F F F 39% 22% 39% C F D+ B- C- D- C F D+ A+ C- C+ A- B- 35% 22% 43% C- B- A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ A- C
0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16 0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 0 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25
Nov
18		 Mississippi D+ F D F+ F 29% 21% 50% C+ F+ A D- B- C+ F A+ F B+ C A A+ A+ 29% 35% 37% C A+ D- F F B+ F+ B D
0.95 38% 33% 29% -11 -1 0.79 38% 0.9 .36 18% .12 86% .11 1.06 64% 29% 22% -8 -3 0.82 35% 1.3 .45 16% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Tulsa B- D- A A+ B- 49% 17% 34% B B C- C- C- B+ C+ D C C F+ B F F 35% 6% 59% C F B+ A+ A+ B- B+ F C
1.10 50% 44% 44% +2 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19 1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26
Nov
25		 Northern Illinois B- A+ D A A 36% 14% 50% C A C+ B+ B B- A- F C B- F C A+ B+ 38% 21% 40% B+ B+ C+ A- B F C+ A+ A+
1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24 0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13
Dec
3		 Kent St. B- D B- A+ A- 41% 9% 50% B+ A C- F F C+ F D F F F D+ F F 40% 10% 50% D- F A+ F C- C- F B- F
1.14 52% 40% 46% +7 +2 1.20 30% 0.5 .16 15% .26 69% .18 1.31 68% 40% 54% +19 +1 1.44 23% 1.7 .38 18% .53 72% .38
Dec
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley F F F F F 58% 14% 28% A F F C+ D- C- C- F D A+ B F A B+ 28% 26% 47% A B+ F D+ F+ A+ C F+ C-
0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21 0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18
Dec
12		 East Tennessee St. C D+ A+ B- C+ 39% 12% 49% B- C+ C+ F F B+ C A+ B C D D C D 41% 16% 43% C- D+ C A+ A C+ A D+ A-
1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25 1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
1		 North Florida B- D A+ F F+ 39% 18% 44% C- F+ B- A+ A+ A B A A- C- B- C F D 37% 10% 53% D D A- A+ A+ C+ F D F
1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25 1.07 53% 40% 41% +4 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35
Jan
3		 Jacksonville F+ D+ F F F 44% 20% 35% C F F+ D+ D- B+ C- A B- C+ F+ B- F F 38% 20% 42% C F C D+ C- A+ F A+ C
1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28 0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21
Jan
8		 Florida Gulf Coast B F F B+ D 35% 10% 54% B- D+ C A+ A+ B- A- D+ B B- C F B- D- 24% 31% 45% B+ D B- A- B+ A D- A C-
1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31 1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
10		 Stetson C F+ A F F+ 40% 31% 29% D- F+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ F A B D+ B- A B 30% 17% 54% C- B- F+ B- D+ B- A A- A
1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28 0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12
Jan
15		 Eastern Kentucky C- D D- D+ F 46% 17% 38% B+ F+ A B+ A C- C- B- C D- F F F F 26% 28% 47% B- F D A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A
1.18 55% 38% 33% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.1 .47 16% .32 76% .25 1.15 91% 58% 50% +25 -2 1.49 35% 0.5 .17 27% .20 56% .11
Jan
17		 Lipscomb C- F B C+ D+ 33% 33% 34% D- D D A+ B- D+ C- B+ C C- D F B+ D+ 62% 7% 31% F D- C- A+ A C- C- F F
1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20 1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 Florida Gulf Coast B D A+ C C+ 28% 24% 48% F+ C B- A- B+ A F C- F A- C- C+ C C 37% 27% 37% C- C- F A+ B A+ A A+ A+
1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19 0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08
Jan
23		 Stetson D- B+ C F F+ 33% 31% 37% F F C+ A+ A+ D- C+ C+ C+ B- F+ C A- C 32% 23% 45% C+ C C A+ A C- F C F+
1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22 0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25
Jan
28		 Eastern Kentucky B- B C- A+ B+ 37% 29% 34% D B F A+ B- F A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ B+ B+ 25% 31% 44% B B+ F A+ A- F F F F
1.22 67% 42% 50% +12 -1 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 23% .67 92% .61 1.11 64% 24% 29% -6 -2 0.85 43% 0.6 .27 12% .42 89% .37
Jan
31		 West Georgia D+ D A+ F F 44% 11% 44% C+ F F D F+ B- A+ A+ A+ C C- B C- C- 43% 31% 26% D- D+ A A A F F C+ F
1.08 55% 60% 20% -8 +2 0.89 22% 0.9 .19 13% .63 83% .53 1.04 56% 33% 33% -3 -1 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 11% .37 68% .25
Feb
4		 Lipscomb B A+ D+ A+ A+ 36% 36% 27% F+ A+ F C F B D+ D D C- F A+ A C- 51% 9% 40% D- D+ B- C C+ C A- F B-
1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16 1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 North Alabama A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 54% 6% 40% A A+ D+ A+ A B+ F F F C- B- F A D+ 59% 18% 24% F+ D+ F A+ A C+ A+ F A
1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11 1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14
Feb
11		 Queens A- A- A F C+ 52% 25% 23% C C+ C A+ A C A+ A A+ C- D F F F 47% 16% 37% D F A A+ A+ D F A+ F
1.29 68% 50% 27% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.5 .50 15% .51 81% .41 1.18 67% 50% 42% +10 +1 1.25 22% 0.4 .08 14% .53 62% .33
Feb
14		 Bellarmine A+ C A A+ B 50% 9% 41% A A- B+ A- A D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A A+ F B+ 55% 8% 37% F+ B F+ F F F A- F B
1.49 64% 50% 50% +14 +2 1.34 41% 1.3 .55 17% .55 86% .48 1.16 48% 25% 44% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.4 .37 10% .22 92% .20
Feb
19		 North Florida F F F+ F F 63% 11% 27% A F D- B D+ D- A+ B- A+ A- D- D A+ A 41% 18% 41% C+ A C- A+ B- C+ F C F
0.99 49% 33% 20% -12 +3 0.84 30% 1.3 .40 15% .44 72% .32 0.97 65% 44% 15% -8 0 0.88 27% 0.9 .24 19% .51 78% .40
Feb
21		 Jacksonville D+ C+ F F F 57% 14% 30% A- F B- B- B- A+ B F C- C+ D+ A+ A+ B 60% 12% 29% F C+ F+ A+ B- F+ F D+ F
1.08 64% 0% 23% -7 +2 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 7% .41 61% .25 1.01 60% 20% 17% -8 +3 0.90 35% 0.8 .26 13% .44 74% .32
Feb
25		 Central Arkansas A B- F A+ A+ 50% 2% 48% A+ A+ A- F C D- A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 41% 4% 55% F F A F F D- D F F
1.30 64% 0% 57% +18 +3 1.45 36% 0.9 .32 22% .40 86% .34 1.37 71% 50% 43% +13 +2 1.33 20% 2.0 .40 13% .31 83% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 34.1 65.9 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 34.1 65.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 65.9    65.9
15-3 100.0% 34.1    11.3 22.8
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 77.2 22.8



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 65.9% 29.8% 29.8% 13.9 0.2 4.6 12.1 2.7 0.0 46.3
15-3 34.1% 26.1% 26.1% 14.3 0.5 4.9 3.5 0.1 25.2
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.6% 28.6% 0.0% 14.0 71.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 19.6% 100.0% 13.9 0.9 23.3 61.8 13.9 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.5%
Lose Out 7.6%