Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#165
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#146
Pace70.7#162
Improvement+0.3#147

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#253
First Shot-3.9#288
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#121
Layup/Dunks-0.2#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#152
Freethrows-2.7#321
Improvement+1.3#60

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#102
First Shot-1.8#236
After Offensive Rebounds+4.1#8
Layups/Dunks-4.0#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#218
Freethrows+1.9#78
Improvement-1.0#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.2% 25.9% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 83.3% 93.1% 79.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 93.7% 88.4%
Conference Champion 28.2% 35.5% 25.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four1.1% 0.4% 1.4%
First Round20.7% 25.6% 19.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 26.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 415 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 323 @Air Force W 74-54 68%     1 - 0 +14.4 -1.5 +15.4
  Tue, Nov 11 117 @Wyoming L 65-79 25%     1 - 1 -7.9 -9.6 +3.0
  Sat, Nov 15 287 @UNC Greensboro W 69-63 62%     2 - 1 +2.2 -8.4 +10.3
  Tue, Nov 18 49 @Mississippi L 65-72 10%     2 - 2 +6.4 -0.9 +7.1
  Fri, Nov 21 91 @Tulsa L 75-84 18%     2 - 3 -0.1 +6.7 -7.1
  Tue, Nov 25 280 Northern Illinois W 77-59 80%     3 - 3 +8.5 +4.8 +5.1
  Wed, Dec 3 124 @Kent St. L 74-81 27%    
  Sun, Dec 7 202 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-75 46%    
  Fri, Dec 12 137 East Tennessee St. W 69-68 52%    
  Sun, Dec 21 335 @UMKC W 76-69 73%    
  Thu, Jan 1 341 North Florida W 85-72 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 269 Jacksonville W 72-64 76%    
  Thu, Jan 8 164 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73-76 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 344 @Stetson W 76-68 76%    
  Thu, Jan 15 258 Eastern Kentucky W 78-71 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 176 @Lipscomb L 69-71 41%    
  Thu, Jan 22 164 Florida Gulf Coast W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 344 Stetson W 79-65 89%    
  Wed, Jan 28 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 75-74 55%    
  Sat, Jan 31 311 @West Georgia W 73-69 65%    
  Thu, Feb 5 176 Lipscomb W 72-68 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 242 North Alabama W 74-67 73%    
  Wed, Feb 11 210 @Queens L 75-76 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 294 Bellarmine W 78-68 79%    
  Thu, Feb 19 341 @North Florida W 82-75 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 269 @Jacksonville W 69-67 57%    
  Wed, Feb 25 317 Central Arkansas W 76-65 83%    
  Sat, Feb 28 294 @Bellarmine W 75-71 63%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.6 7.1 8.0 5.4 2.6 0.6 28.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.3 7.5 4.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 2.0 0.2 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.8 0.3 4.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.8 7.5 10.4 12.2 14.0 14.8 12.5 9.4 5.6 2.6 0.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.7% 2.6    2.6 0.0
16-2 96.5% 5.4    4.8 0.5 0.0
15-3 85.0% 8.0    5.8 2.1 0.2
14-4 56.4% 7.1    3.5 2.7 0.8 0.0
13-5 24.6% 3.6    1.0 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.8% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.2% 28.2 18.4 7.2 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 52.4% 52.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-1 2.6% 50.2% 50.2% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.3
16-2 5.6% 42.2% 42.2% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.2
15-3 9.4% 36.3% 36.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.1 6.0
14-4 12.5% 31.1% 31.1% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.6 0.1 8.6
13-5 14.8% 23.0% 23.0% 14.6 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.3 11.4
12-6 14.0% 18.2% 18.2% 15.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.6 11.5
11-7 12.2% 15.8% 15.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 10.3
10-8 10.4% 10.5% 10.5% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 9.3
9-9 7.5% 7.8% 7.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.9
8-10 4.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.6
7-11 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.6
6-12 1.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.7% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.2% 21.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 6.6 7.4 3.3 78.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.1 4.0 8.0 60.0 28.0