Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#94
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#71
Pace75.2#56
Improvement+1.5#67

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#125
First Shot+2.0#121
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#195
Layup/Dunks+0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#35
Freethrows-1.6#282
Improvement+0.4#141

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#69
First Shot+4.0#65
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#189
Layups/Dunks+4.3#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#130
Freethrows+0.9#126
Improvement+1.1#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.0% 23.7% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 97.5% 99.0% 95.3%
.500 or above in Conference 90.0% 92.1% 86.7%
Conference Champion 29.2% 32.7% 23.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round20.8% 23.3% 17.0%
Second Round4.0% 4.8% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 310 - 512 - 8
Quad 411 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 323 Air Force W 79-63 94%     1 - 0 +4.4 +6.2 -1.1
  Sat, Nov 8 224 Tennessee St. W 87-79 87%     2 - 0 +1.2 +0.4 -0.3
  Sat, Nov 15 296 @Oral Roberts W 83-60 83%     3 - 0 +18.6 +0.3 +16.7
  Wed, Nov 19 176 Lipscomb W 75-68 83%     4 - 0 +2.7 -5.7 +7.7
  Mon, Nov 24 359 St. Francis (PA) W 94-57 95%     5 - 0 +23.1 +13.9 +8.2
  Wed, Nov 26 173 Toledo W 87-72 74%     6 - 0 +13.8 +8.6 +4.9
  Sun, Nov 30 151 @College of Charleston W 76-73 60%    
  Wed, Dec 3 115 Richmond W 78-73 70%    
  Sun, Dec 7 149 @Middle Tennessee W 78-75 60%    
  Sat, Dec 13 174 Illinois-Chicago W 82-72 83%    
  Tue, Dec 16 291 @Evansville W 77-67 81%    
  Fri, Dec 19 133 @UC Irvine W 71-70 53%    
  Mon, Dec 29 166 @Indiana St. W 80-76 64%    
  Thu, Jan 1 112 Bradley W 77-72 68%    
  Sun, Jan 4 142 Southern Illinois W 79-71 76%    
  Wed, Jan 7 90 @Northern Iowa L 66-69 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 143 @Drake W 70-68 58%    
  Tue, Jan 13 268 Valparaiso W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Jan 17 142 @Southern Illinois W 76-74 56%    
  Sun, Jan 25 102 Illinois St. W 76-72 63%    
  Wed, Jan 28 268 @Valparaiso W 76-68 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 118 Murray St. W 85-79 69%    
  Tue, Feb 3 143 Drake W 73-65 76%    
  Fri, Feb 6 174 @Illinois-Chicago W 79-75 64%    
  Mon, Feb 9 112 @Bradley L 74-75 47%    
  Thu, Feb 12 90 Northern Iowa W 69-66 60%    
  Sun, Feb 15 118 @Murray St. L 82-83 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 166 Indiana St. W 83-73 80%    
  Wed, Feb 25 291 Evansville W 80-64 92%    
  Sun, Mar 1 102 @Illinois St. L 73-75 43%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.7 7.2 7.0 4.3 1.6 0.4 29.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.6 5.7 2.7 0.6 0.1 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.1 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 1.6 0.2 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.1 4.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 2.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.6 6.6 9.1 11.3 13.0 13.5 12.5 10.0 7.7 4.3 1.6 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
18-2 98.8% 4.3    4.1 0.2
17-3 91.6% 7.0    5.9 1.1 0.0
16-4 72.5% 7.2    4.9 2.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 45.8% 5.7    2.6 2.5 0.6 0.0
14-6 18.2% 2.5    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.2% 29.2 20.0 7.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 81.4% 62.0% 19.4% 8.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 51.0%
19-1 1.6% 61.1% 49.7% 11.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.6 22.6%
18-2 4.3% 46.6% 43.8% 2.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.3 4.8%
17-3 7.7% 39.5% 38.4% 1.1% 11.6 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.1 4.7 1.8%
16-4 10.0% 33.1% 32.9% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 1.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.7 0.2%
15-5 12.5% 26.4% 26.4% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.2 0.1%
14-6 13.5% 21.5% 21.5% 12.2 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.6
13-7 13.0% 16.2% 16.1% 0.1% 12.4 0.1 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.9 0.1%
12-8 11.3% 13.1% 13.1% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 9.8
11-9 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.2
10-10 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 6.2
9-11 4.6% 3.8% 3.8% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.4
8-12 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
7-13 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.0% 20.5% 0.5% 11.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 4.8 10.5 3.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 79.0 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.0 35.7 9.5 21.4 7.1 16.7 4.8 4.8