Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.3 #79
Expected Predictive Rating +8.4 #72
Pace 73.6 #65
Improvement -1.1 #248

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #64 A+ C+ D C- A+
Defense #113 B- C B- B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #39 1.30 #50 +6.9 #16
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #348 0.71 #237 -4.3 #350
Three Pointers 45% #96 1.23 #3 +7.3 #15
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #3 +9.9 #3
Freethrows 17.7 #171 68% #313 12.0 #222
Second Chance 29.3% #227 1.17 #46 0.34 #129
Turnovers 18.3% #282
Total Offense +5.5 #64

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 26% #360 1.03 #35 +8.9 #3
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #228 0.67 #77 +1.4 #85
Three Pointers 55% #3 1.02 #202 -7.3 #358
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #86 +3.0 #86
Freethrows 14.7 #59 72% #173 10.6 #300
Second Chance 32.1% #240 1.02 #150 0.33 #198
Turnovers 17.8% #103
Total Defense +1.8 #113

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.7% #14 -1.3% #74
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.1% #12 -4.5% #94
Possession Length 15.6 #46 18.3 #324
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #247 0.14 #80
Improvement +2.1 #64 -3.3 #334

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.8% 29.2% 23.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.8% 98.4%
Conference Champion 31.9% 39.6% 20.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round26.6% 29.0% 23.1%
Second Round5.4% 6.1% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 59.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 25 - 25 - 3
Quad 310 - 415 - 7
Quad 410 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 342 Air Force W 79 - 63 97% +4  1 - 0 +2 +6 B F A+ -4 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 226 Tennessee St. W 87 - 79 90% +6  2 - 0 +1 -0 B- F D- +0 B C+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 298 @Oral Roberts W 83 - 60 87% +6  3 - 0 +18 +3 A+ A+ F +14 A+ B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 19 167 Lipscomb W 75 - 68 85% +7  4 - 0 +3 -6 C- B- F +9 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 360 St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 57 97% +16  5 - 0 +22 +13 A+ D+ C +8 A+ B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 164 Toledo W 87 - 72 78% +3  6 - 0 +14 +10 A+ A+ F +5 B C B
 Sun, Nov 30 155 @College of Charleston W 96 - 73 65% +19  7 - 0 +26 +24 A+ D+ A+ +3 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 3 116 Richmond L 76 - 84 76% +0  7 - 1 -8 -2 C B F -6 F A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 120 @Middle Tennessee W 83 - 62 57% +8  8 - 1 +27 +14 A+ C A+ +13 A+ D- F
 Sat, Dec 13 160 Illinois-Chicago W 87 - 84 84% -3  9 - 1 1 - 0 -0 +22 A+ C+ F -22 F C- F
 Tue, Dec 16 251 @Evansville W 83 - 78 82% +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +3 +5 B- F C- -3 C B+ D-
 Fri, Dec 19 122 @UC Irvine W 84 - 58 57% +8  11 - 1 +31 +18 A+ B- F +13 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 207 @Indiana St. L 80 - 81 OT 75% +2  11 - 2 2 - 1 -1 +2 C+ D+ F -3 D- D C+
 Thu, Jan 1 114 Bradley W 88 - 78 74% +3  12 - 2 3 - 1 +11 +16 A+ A+ F -5 D D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 126 Southern Illinois L 67 - 68 79% -0  12 - 3 3 - 2 -2 -3 A+ D- F +1 C B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 107 @Northern Iowa W 78 - 65 50% +8  13 - 3 4 - 2 +20 +28 A+ A- A+ -5 B D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 165 @Drake W 78 - 76 69% -11  14 - 3 5 - 2 +4 +3 F A+ F +1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 184 Valparaiso W 78 - 74 86% +3  15 - 3 6 - 2 -1 +10 A+ F A- -10 B- F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 126 @Southern Illinois W 79 - 77 59%
 Sun, Jan 25 91 Illinois St. W 78 - 74 65%
 Wed, Jan 28 184 @Valparaiso W 79 - 73 72%
 Sat, Jan 31 89 Murray St. W 88 - 84 64%
 Tue, Feb 3 165 Drake W 81 - 70 84%
 Fri, Feb 6 160 @Illinois-Chicago W 78 - 74 66%
 Mon, Feb 9 114 @Bradley W 79 - 78 52%
 Thu, Feb 12 107 Northern Iowa W 71 - 65 72%
 Sun, Feb 15 89 @Murray St. L 85 - 87 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 207 Indiana St. W 86 - 73 89%
 Wed, Feb 25 251 Evansville W 83 - 67 93%
 Sun, Mar 1 91 @Illinois St. L 75 - 77 43%
Totals 23 - 7 14 - 6 +7 +6 A+ C+ D +2 B- C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.6 9.7 11.2 5.7 1.4 31.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 5.2 12.7 9.3 2.6 0.2 30.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.0 9.1 5.2 0.8 0.0 19.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.1 2.7 0.2 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.5 0.2 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 5.7 11.2 17.5 21.8 19.8 13.8 5.9 1.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
17-3 97.3% 5.7    5.2 0.6
16-4 81.3% 11.2    7.7 3.3 0.2
15-5 48.9% 9.7    4.3 4.3 1.0 0.0
14-6 16.7% 3.6    0.7 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.9% 31.9 19.3 9.9 2.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.4% 53.9% 45.0% 8.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 16.2%
17-3 5.9% 40.0% 37.7% 2.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.9 0.3 3.5 3.7%
16-4 13.8% 37.9% 37.2% 0.7% 11.4 0.1 3.1 2.1 0.0 8.5 1.2%
15-5 19.8% 31.4% 31.2% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 2.7 3.4 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.2%
14-6 21.8% 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 11.7 1.7 3.8 0.2 0.0 16.1 0.1%
13-7 17.5% 21.5% 21.5% 11.9 0.7 2.8 0.3 13.7
12-8 11.2% 16.1% 16.1% 12.0 0.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.4
11-9 5.7% 12.6% 12.6% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 5.0
10-10 2.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0
9-11 0.6% 5.9% 5.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 13.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.8% 26.4% 0.4% 11.6 73.2 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 9.9 0.8 3.2 1.6 4.8 20.6 31.0 34.9 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 29.5% 10.6 3.3 4.9 21.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 9.7% 10.7 3.2 6.5