Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #131
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 #152
Pace 70.7 #132
Improvement -4.3 #345

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #158 C+ D+ B- B- A-
Defense #124 C B B+ D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #7 1.13 #211 +5.1 #37
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #279 0.82 #88 -1.1 #231
Three Pointers 36% #292 1.05 #136 -2.0 #262
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #130 +1.9 #130
Freethrows 19.0 #106 72% #192 13.7 #119
Second Chance 29.8% #217 0.94 #297 0.28 #267
Turnovers 15.2% #98
Total Offense +0.2 #158

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.17 #195 -0.7 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #305 0.71 #112 +1.9 #56
Three Pointers 44% #90 0.95 #106 -0.4 #198
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #155 +0.9 #155
Freethrows 19.9 #301 74% #262 14.8 #52
Second Chance 27.1% #67 1.01 #134 0.27 #72
Turnovers 19.5% #50
Total Defense +1.4 #124

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #36 1.2% #282
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.0% #162 -2.8% #132
Possession Length 17.5 #192 16.8 #109
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #37 0.16 #146
Improvement -0.7 #223 -3.7 #342

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 7.8% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 92.5% 95.3% 83.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 91.1% 72.8%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.3% 7.8% 5.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 75.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 412 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 261 Texas St. W 83 - 48 83% +13  1 - 0 +26 +6 A+ F B- +20 B+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 295 Le Moyne W 83 - 60 87% +6  2 - 0 +12 +4 B- F A+ +9 B B A+
 Sat, Nov 15 149 @Davidson L 87 - 91 42% -9  2 - 1 -0 +8 C- B+ A+ -8 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 138 William & Mary L 74 - 82 63% -9  2 - 2 -10 -6 F C+ D- -3 D+ C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 318 Bucknell W 71 - 66 85% +12  3 - 2 -4 -2 D D F -2 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 339 VMI W 81 - 48 88% +22  4 - 2 +22 +6 A- C F +17 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 1 74 @Kansas St. W 82 - 66 19% +9  5 - 2 +27 +21 A+ A A+ +7 A+ C F
 Sat, Dec 6 101 Utah Valley L 71 - 82 48% -10  5 - 3 -9 -1 D+ C+ B- -7 F A B+
 Tue, Dec 16 349 Chicago St. W 76 - 55 94% +11  6 - 3 +5 -2 C+ F A +8 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 178 @Ohio W 68 - 58 50% +9  7 - 3 1 - 0 +12 -2 D D+ F +14 A+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 84 Miami (OH) L 83 - 93 42% -13  7 - 4 1 - 1 -6 +4 C+ C- C -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 168 @Massachusetts W 101 - 100 OT 47% +0  8 - 4 2 - 1 +3 +10 A F A+ -7 F B A-
 Tue, Jan 6 146 @Kent St. L 93 - 96 41% -2  8 - 5 2 - 2 +1 +19 B A+ A- -18 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 67 Akron L 67 - 77 36% -11  8 - 6 2 - 3 -5 -9 C F D- +5 A+ A A
 Sat, Jan 17 211 Eastern Michigan W 74 - 67 76%
 Tue, Jan 20 250 @Western Michigan W 78 - 74 64%
 Sat, Jan 24 164 @Toledo L 78 - 79 47%
 Tue, Jan 27 199 Buffalo W 80 - 73 74%
 Sat, Jan 31 325 @Central Michigan W 78 - 69 79%
 Tue, Feb 3 303 Ball St. W 77 - 64 88%
 Sat, Feb 7 133 @Arkansas St. L 79 - 82 39%
 Wed, Feb 11 331 @Northern Illinois W 79 - 70 80%
 Sat, Feb 14 164 Toledo W 81 - 76 68%
 Tue, Feb 17 146 Kent St. W 83 - 79 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 84 @Miami (OH) L 74 - 82 22%
 Tue, Feb 24 250 Western Michigan W 81 - 71 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 168 Massachusetts W 80 - 75 69%
 Fri, Mar 6 211 @Eastern Michigan W 71 - 70 55%
Totals 17 - 11 11 - 7 +2 +0 C+ D+ B- +1 C B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.0 2.4 0.4 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.4 10.1 7.1 1.3 0.0 23.3 3rd
4th 0.3 4.1 10.7 6.5 0.9 0.0 22.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 8.6 4.8 0.5 16.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.2 4.4 0.6 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.9 0.9 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.8 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.8 7.5 12.8 18.2 20.5 18.3 11.4 4.6 0.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 54.1% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1
14-4 17.1% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.9% 20.0% 20.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 4.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0
13-5 11.4% 12.8% 12.8% 12.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 9.9
12-6 18.3% 10.1% 10.1% 12.9 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 16.5
11-7 20.5% 7.4% 7.4% 13.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 19.0
10-8 18.2% 5.8% 5.8% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 17.1
9-9 12.8% 4.1% 4.1% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.3
8-10 7.5% 1.8% 1.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4
7-11 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
6-12 1.4% 1.4
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 13.0 92.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%