Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -5.9 266
Results Rating -9.0 309
Consistency 0.21 364
Pace 67.5 210
Improvement +6.0 15

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 234 C- C D+ D+ D
Defense D+ 285 D+ F C D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 184 C- 57% 203 -0.6 203
2 Pt. Jumpers 55% 32 B 42% 57 +3.9 33
Three Pointers 34% 322 D+ 32% 282 -4.9 329
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -0.9 301 C -0.7 195
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 221
Second Chance C- 28.4% 237 B- 1.11 72 C 0.32 161
Opponents' Steals D- 11.3% 323
Other Turnovers C+ 6.8% 118
Turnovers D+ 18.1% 270
Freethrows D+ 0.28 261 D 69% 286 D+ 0.19 285
Total Offense C- -2.2 234

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 82 C- 12.0% 243
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 39% 27 C 5.6% 225
Three Pointers D+ 80% 271 C 0.8% 179
Total C 57% 154 D+ 6.4% 275

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 66 D+ 61% 251 +3.8 307
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 264 C+ 37% 122 -1.3 80
Three Pointers 39% 246 C- 35% 228 -0.4 166
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 292 C- +1.4 240
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.06 251
Second Chance F+ 35.9% 346 D- 1.16 341 F 0.42 357
Turnovers from Steals C 9.2% 200
Other Turnovers C 7.5% 144
Turnovers C 16.7% 188
Freethrows D 0.35 316 B- 71% 82 D+ 0.25 289
Total Defense D+ -3.7 285

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 339 C- 9.7% 219
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 140 B+ 8.4% 38
Three Pointers D 89% 315 A+ 3.0% 6
Total D 61% 312 B- 6.9% 84

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 285 16.8 94
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 146 0.22 331
Consistency 0.15 332 0.15 348
Improvement +2.4 70 +3.6 32

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 284 265 244
Results Rating Rank 326 299 276
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 11 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 10% 0% 14%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 27.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 62 - 13
Quad 46 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 170 Appalachian St. W 82 - 66 42% +12  95% 1 - 0 B+ +12 A +13 A+ C+ F C+ +1 A+ F D
 Sat, Nov 8 114 @Bradley L 54 - 85 13% -14  0% 1 - 1 F -25 F -17 F D- D- F+ -8 F C C+
 Thu, Nov 13 185 South Alabama L 64 - 66 34% -3  1% 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 F+ B C- C -1 A F C
 Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82 - 59 88% +13  94% 2 - 2 C+ +5 C- -1 D- B+ C+ B +5 A+ F F
 Thu, Nov 20 191 Northern Kentucky L 66 - 90 46% -13  0% 2 - 3 F -29 F+ -9 D A F F -20 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 83 @Marquette L 71 - 85 8% -5  4% 2 - 4 C- -4 C -0 D+ F+ A+ D+ -4 F+ C D+
 Tue, Dec 2 283 @Loyola Chicago L 72 - 83 42% -2  32% 2 - 5 F+ -15 C- -1 C+ C D F -14 C+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 25 @Saint Louis L 65 - 107 2% -23  1% 2 - 6 F -23 C -0 B C D- F -24 D+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 219 @Stony Brook L 55 - 78 30% -16  0% 2 - 7 F -23 F -15 F D A- F -10 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 321 @Northern Illinois L 73 - 74 55% +10  90% 2 - 8 0 - 1 D -8 C +1 D A+ D- F+ -9 C+ F B
 Mon, Dec 22 30 @Wisconsin L 61 - 88 3% -15  1% 2 - 9 D -9 D -6 D- D- A D -5 F A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 30 210 Ohio L 64 - 80 49% -5  42% 2 - 10 0 - 2 F -22 F -21 F F D- C+ +0 B+ D+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 164 Toledo L 75 - 78 40% +5  75% 2 - 11 0 - 3 D+ -6 D -5 C- D- A C -1 A- C+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 72 @Akron L 69 - 82 6% -10  0% 2 - 12 0 - 4 C- -2 D -5 C F F B- +3 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 159 Kent St. W 87 - 85 39% +1  62% 3 - 12 1 - 4 C -1 B +6 D- A+ A+ D- -7 A- F B
 Tue, Jan 13 87 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 100 8% -17  1% 3 - 13 1 - 5 F -30 F -11 D- F F F -18 F F D
 Tue, Jan 20 313 Ball St. L 67 - 68 73% -5  10% 3 - 14 1 - 6 D- -13 C +1 B+ D+ D F -14 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 272 @Western Michigan L 65 - 77 40% -3  24% 3 - 15 1 - 7 F+ -15 F -12 F B- D- D+ -4 C+ D+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 247 Eastern Michigan W 100 - 65 58% +9  61% 4 - 15 2 - 7 A+ +27 A+ +16 A+ C- A- A +9 C- C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 177 Bowling Green W 62 - 59 43% -4  26% 5 - 15 3 - 7 C -1 F -14 F A C- A+ +13 A A+ C-
 Tue, Feb 3 190 @Massachusetts L 89 - 95 25% +1  47% 5 - 16 3 - 8 D+ -5 A +14 A+ A+ F F -18 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 301 @Louisiana L 80 - 85 47% +1  64% 5 - 17 D -10 A +11 A B+ A- F -22 F F C
 Sat, Feb 14 321 Northern Illinois W 88 - 46 76% +25  99% 6 - 17 4 - 8 A+ +29 A- +11 A+ A- B A+ +19 A+ A+ B+
 Tue, Feb 17 247 @Eastern Michigan L 54 - 66 35% -9  3% 6 - 18 4 - 9 D- -14 F -17 F D F B- +2 D- F A+
 Sat, Feb 21 272 Western Michigan W 83 - 70 63% +7  83% 7 - 18 5 - 9 C+ +4 D+ -4 C- D+ D+ A- +7 A F B+
 Tue, Feb 24 159 @Kent St. L 81 - 83 20% +9  95% 7 - 19 5 - 10 C +1 A- +10 A- A+ F+ F+ -9 F+ F C+
 Sat, Feb 28 206 @Buffalo L 73 - 79 28%
 Tue, Mar 3 72 Akron L 76 - 87 15%
 Fri, Mar 6 313 @Ball St. W 68 - 67 51%
Totals 8 - 21 6 - 12 -6 C- -2 C- C D D+ -4 D+ D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- B D+ C 38% 55% 34% D C- C- B- C D+ D+ D D+ D+ D+ C+ C- C- 43% 18% 39% D+ D+ F+ D- F C D B- D+
1.05 57% 42% 32% -1 -1 0.99 28% 1.1 .32 18% .28 69% .19 1.14 61% 37% 35% +1 +1 1.06 36% 1.2 .42 17% .35 71% .20
Nov
3		 Appalachian St. A B+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 16% 35% B+ A+ A+ F C+ F B A+ A C+ A+ A+ B A+ 33% 17% 50% C+ A+ F+ F+ F D F A+ D-
1.26 63% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.27 45% 0.7 .31 18% .32 82% .26 1.02 38% 25% 29% -13 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 14% .52 48% .25
Nov
8		 Bradley F F B- F F 23% 55% 21% F F F+ C+ D- D- D- A C- F+ F A+ F F 36% 13% 51% F+ F D- A- C C+ F A- F+
0.79 36% 42% 20% -7 -6 0.77 22% 1.0 .22 22% .28 80% .22 1.24 82% 17% 42% +12 +1 1.28 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 68% .29
Nov
13		 South Alabama D+ F F D F+ 15% 8% 77% D+ F+ A D B C- D F D- C B+ B A+ A+ 57% 7% 37% F A F F F C F C F
1.03 43% 25% 30% -8 0 0.85 41% 1.0 .41 18% .20 60% .12 1.07 50% 33% 18% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.6 .51 13% .43 65% .28
Nov
14		 Coppin St. C- C- A+ F D 38% 26% 36% D- D- B B- B+ C+ F D+ F B A A+ A+ A+ 42% 23% 35% D A+ C- F F F C+ D C
1.16 60% 57% 26% +2 -1 1.04 40% 1.2 .49 16% .25 73% .18 0.83 41% 17% 17% -21 0 0.60 30% 1.5 .43 18% .31 72% .22
Nov
20		 Northern Kentucky F+ C+ A F D+ 35% 28% 37% F+ D B+ A A F B- F C- F C B- F F 37% 17% 46% B- F F F F D+ A- C+ B+
0.97 60% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.98 39% 1.3 .52 28% .36 61% .22 1.32 58% 33% 46% +7 0 1.17 39% 1.5 .61 16% .23 69% .16
Nov
22		 Marquette C B- F+ D- D+ 40% 31% 29% D- D+ B- F F+ A+ D+ D+ D D+ F A+ B- F+ 57% 2% 40% F+ F+ B D- C D+ F A- F
1.00 61% 28% 29% -4 -1 0.91 35% 0.5 .19 15% .23 71% .17 1.19 70% 0% 32% +5 +4 1.19 28% 1.1 .31 13% .56 63% .35
Dec
2		 Loyola Chicago C- B- A D+ B- 42% 33% 25% D C+ F A+ C D C+ C- C+ F D B A C+ 43% 14% 43% C C+ C F F F F C- F
1.08 60% 50% 33% +5 -1 1.08 17% 1.8 .31 15% .30 76% .23 1.25 63% 33% 26% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.7 .53 12% .57 70% .39
Dec
7		 Saint Louis C F A+ B+ B+ 30% 30% 40% D- B C C C D- A D A- F D- D+ C- 55% 0% 45% F D+ F F F F D C D+
0.94 36% 50% 37% -1 -2 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 19% .41 70% .28 1.55 69% 38% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.5 .63 6% .34 73% .25
Dec
13		 Stony Brook F D+ C+ F F 34% 25% 42% D+ F F A+ D A- C- A C F B F F F 42% 23% 35% C+ F F F F A+ F C- F
0.86 56% 38% 9% -16 -1 0.68 18% 1.3 .23 12% .27 80% .21 1.22 50% 50% 67% +16 0 1.35 54% 1.2 .63 31% .34 73% .25
Dec
20		 Northern Illinois C D A+ F D- 53% 8% 39% A- D A A A+ D- F F F F+ C- F A+ B 51% 5% 44% F C+ F F F B F F F
1.10 56% 75% 25% -4 +3 1.00 41% 1.3 .53 20% .24 54% .13 1.12 57% 50% 22% -8 +3 0.93 41% 1.3 .55 24% .68 74% .50
Dec
22		 Wisconsin D C- D+ F D 33% 37% 31% F+ D- F A+ D- A B- C- C+ D F A+ F F 41% 4% 54% F+ F C A+ A+ B- F A+ D
0.91 53% 37% 25% -6 -2 0.85 6% 2.5 .15 12% .29 71% .20 1.31 79% 0% 48% +18 +2 1.43 31% 0.8 .24 13% .45 65% .29
Dec
30		 Ohio F A- C- F F 53% 22% 25% B- F F F F D- B+ D B- C+ C+ F A+ A 55% 13% 32% F B+ B- F D+ C F B+ F
0.83 67% 36% 0% -9 +1 0.86 21% 0.5 .11 19% .37 70% .26 1.04 55% 57% 18% -7 +2 0.92 25% 1.2 .30 16% .52 65% .34
Jan
3		 Toledo D C- D A+ C 38% 27% 35% F+ C- F A+ D- A D- B- D C B+ C+ C- B+ 37% 41% 22% A+ A- F+ A C+ F F D- F
1.07 57% 33% 42% +3 -1 1.05 13% 2.0 .25 13% .20 75% .15 1.12 50% 40% 36% -1 -3 0.94 35% 0.8 .27 10% .51 81% .41
Jan
6		 Akron D B- F+ D C- 48% 16% 36% B C F C+ F F A+ A+ A+ B- F F D F 44% 8% 48% F+ F F C F A+ A A+ A+
0.97 62% 29% 31% -1 +1 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 24% .50 81% .41 1.15 73% 75% 38% +12 +2 1.30 42% 1.3 .54 27% .17 67% .12
Jan
10		 Kent St. B D+ B F D 34% 29% 37% F+ D- A- A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ C D- B- A+ B A 38% 15% 47% D+ A- F F F B A B A
1.20 55% 41% 27% -4 -1 0.92 39% 1.4 .52 10% .35 70% .24 1.17 52% 13% 31% -8 +1 0.87 50% 1.4 .68 21% .30 71% .21
Jan
13		 Miami (OH) F D- B+ D- D 33% 35% 33% F+ D- D+ F F F F+ F F F F+ F F F 37% 16% 47% C F C F F D F F F
0.87 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 26% 0.4 .11 21% .22 67% .15 1.43 72% 50% 48% +17 0 1.37 24% 2.0 .48 13% .46 89% .41
Jan
20		 Ball St. C F B A+ A- 33% 27% 40% D B+ C D- D+ D F+ F F F D A- F F 41% 22% 37% C+ F F A- C- F A D+ A-
1.14 33% 42% 61% +9 -1 1.18 34% 0.9 .31 20% .21 50% .11 1.15 60% 27% 39% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 8% .20 73% .15
Jan
24		 Western Michigan F C- F F F 39% 14% 47% C F C- A B- D- A+ B- A+ D+ C+ A B B 50% 15% 35% F C+ C- D+ D+ F F B F
0.96 58% 0% 17% -17 +1 0.69 29% 1.3 .39 16% .46 73% .33 1.13 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 10% .54 70% .38
Jan
27		 Eastern Michigan A+ C A+ A+ A+ 50% 20% 30% B- A+ C+ D- C- A- A C A- A C- F A C 38% 21% 40% D- C- A+ F C A+ F A- F+
1.32 57% 73% 53% +15 +1 1.34 31% 0.9 .28 12% .39 73% .29 0.86 61% 50% 26% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.6 .28 25% .37 67% .25
Jan
31		 Bowling Green F C F F F 46% 28% 26% D+ F C+ A+ A C- F+ F F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 59% 15% 25% D A B- A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+
0.88 57% 21% 15% -13 0 0.76 29% 1.5 .44 18% .26 47% .12 0.84 49% 22% 27% -11 +2 0.85 25% 0.4 .09 16% .20 58% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Massachusetts A C C+ A+ A+ 35% 23% 42% D A+ A A- A+ F A+ D- B+ F F F F F 48% 8% 44% F F D F F F F D- F
1.27 60% 40% 72% +25 -1 1.51 38% 1.2 .46 30% .49 67% .33 1.36 70% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.31 36% 1.5 .54 13% .46 71% .33
Feb
7		 Louisiana A D A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 41% F+ A F+ A+ B+ A- C C- C F C F F F 28% 41% 30% B F F B F C F F F
1.25 53% 73% 44% +13 -1 1.27 24% 1.8 .43 14% .38 71% .27 1.33 54% 47% 64% +16 -3 1.28 45% 0.8 .34 17% .36 84% .30
Feb
14		 Northern Illinois A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 28% 19% D+ A+ C- A+ A- B F D+ F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% B A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ F A+ D+
1.29 62% 60% 60% +15 0 1.33 29% 1.6 .46 15% .17 70% .12 0.67 44% 22% 22% -16 0 0.71 33% 0.1 .04 25% .53 44% .23
Feb
17		 Eastern Michigan F B- C F F 31% 38% 31% F F B- F D F A- F D B- F D C F 36% 36% 29% B+ D- F D- F A+ D- F F
0.81 60% 39% 13% -9 -3 0.79 33% 0.7 .23 21% .38 50% .19 1.00 73% 40% 33% +6 -2 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 27% .31 80% .25
Feb
21		 Western Michigan D+ B B+ F C- 51% 15% 34% B C- D C D+ D+ A+ A- A+ A- B- B+ A+ A+ 47% 25% 27% D+ A C F F B+ F D+ F
1.11 67% 43% 25% +1 +2 1.06 25% 1.1 .29 15% .60 76% .46 0.94 50% 31% 21% -11 0 0.80 30% 1.4 .41 20% .42 76% .32
Feb
24		 Kent St. A- A+ D- A+ A+ 26% 28% 47% F A- C A+ A+ F+ A D B F+ D- D+ D+ F+ 39% 11% 50% D F+ F F F C+ F D- F
1.21 75% 31% 45% +10 -2 1.19 30% 1.7 .50 19% .41 68% .28 1.24 65% 40% 36% +5 +1 1.14 47% 1.3 .60 19% .52 79% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.8 1.6 2.4 6th
7th 0.5 10.6 0.9 12.1 7th
8th 11.9 7.5 19.4 8th
9th 6.1 32.6 0.9 39.5 9th
10th 18.0 1.5 19.5 10th
11th 6.7 6.7 11th
12th 0.5 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 31.2 46.5 19.8 2.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.5
7-11 19.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 19.6
6-12 46.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 46.4
5-13 31.2% 31.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 31.2%