Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.2 #4
Expected Predictive Rating +28.7 #3
Pace 64.4 #304
Improvement -3.1 #321

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #14 A+ A- C C B
Defense #6 A+ A+ B D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #70 1.39 #8 +7.6 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #290 0.95 #17 -0.5 #205
Three Pointers 42% #163 1.10 #65 +2.3 #105
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #9 +9.3 #8
Freethrows 17.7 #170 71% #241 12.6 #190
Second Chance 35.8% #46 1.14 #78 0.41 #42
Turnovers 16.4% #166
Total Offense +10.0 #14

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 0.89 #2 +4.4 #52
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #59 0.70 #111 -1.1 #263
Three Pointers 35% #329 0.77 #1 +7.5 #3
1st FG Attempt 0.80 #2 +10.8 #2
Freethrows 19.7 #299 72% #170 14.2 #71
Second Chance 25.0% #23 0.83 #12 0.21 #10
Turnovers 18.9% #61
Total Defense +11.2 #6

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #58 -0.8% #99
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.8% #9 -20.4% #2
Possession Length 17.9 #232 18.0 #289
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #128 0.10 #13
Improvement -1.7 #283 -1.4 #276

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.1% 8.7% 4.0%
#1 Seed 38.2% 40.1% 23.1%
Top 2 Seed 75.5% 77.5% 59.8%
Top 4 Seed 98.6% 98.9% 95.6%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.9 1.9 2.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 84.9% 86.5% 72.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.2% 98.4% 97.2%
Sweet Sixteen72.7% 73.2% 68.4%
Elite Eight44.5% 45.1% 39.4%
Final Four23.7% 24.3% 18.9%
Championship Game12.4% 12.8% 8.8%
National Champion5.8% 6.1% 3.4%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 26 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 3
Quad 29 - 120 - 4
Quad 35 - 025 - 4
Quad 45 - 030 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 340 New Haven W 79 - 55 100% +12  1 - 0 +10 +7 B- A- D- +4 C- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 284 Umass Lowell W 110 - 47 99% +42  2 - 0 +53 +25 A+ A+ C+ +24 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 163 Columbia W 89 - 62 98% +16  3 - 0 +23 +19 A+ A+ A+ +6 A+ A- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 11 BYU W 86 - 84 55% +9  4 - 0 +22 +17 A+ B F +5 B D- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 2 Arizona L 67 - 71 50% -4  4 - 1 +17 +12 A+ D A+ +4 A+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 329 Bryant W 72 - 49 100% +14  5 - 1 +10 +1 F C B- +11 A+ B- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 8 Illinois W 74 - 61 53% +10  6 - 1 +34 +14 A+ B D- +20 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 18 @Kansas W 61 - 56 55% -2  7 - 1 +25 +6 B- A+ F +20 A+ A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 5 321 East Texas A&M W 83 - 59 99% +13  8 - 1 +11 +12 C+ C+ A+ +1 C- A+ C
 Tue, Dec 9 12 Florida W 77 - 73 55% +2  9 - 1 +24 +17 A+ B+ B+ +7 B- A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 41 Texas W 71 - 63 87% +6  10 - 1 +17 +3 A+ B- F +14 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 58 Butler W 79 - 60 91% +10  11 - 1 1 - 0 +25 +9 A+ A+ F +16 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 98 @DePaul W 72 - 54 88% +5  12 - 1 2 - 0 +26 +8 A- A+ D +18 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 92 @Xavier W 90 - 67 87% +18  13 - 1 3 - 0 +32 +19 A+ A D+ +12 A+ A+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 106 Marquette W 73 - 57 96% +11  14 - 1 4 - 0 +17 +4 D B A+ +14 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 68 @Providence W 103 - 98 OT 83% -5  15 - 1 5 - 0 +16 +16 A+ C- B- -1 D+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 98 DePaul W 72 - 60 95% +15  16 - 1 6 - 0 +14 +10 A+ F D +6 B A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 49 @Seton Hall W 69 - 64 76% +7  17 - 1 7 - 0 +19 +13 A+ A+ D- +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 100 @Georgetown W 79 - 66 89%
 Sat, Jan 24 34 Villanova W 73 - 63 83%
 Tue, Jan 27 68 Providence W 87 - 71 93%
 Sat, Jan 31 43 @Creighton W 74 - 68 71%
 Tue, Feb 3 92 Xavier W 81 - 63 95%
 Fri, Feb 6 15 @St. John's W 74 - 73 53%
 Wed, Feb 11 58 @Butler W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 100 Georgetown W 82 - 63 96%
 Wed, Feb 18 43 Creighton W 77 - 65 87%
 Sat, Feb 21 34 @Villanova W 70 - 66 65%
 Wed, Feb 25 15 St. John's W 77 - 70 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 49 Seton Hall W 72 - 59 89%
 Sat, Mar 7 106 @Marquette W 79 - 65 90%
Totals 28 - 3 18 - 2 +21 +10 A+ A- C +11 A+ A+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 7.6 18.6 26.6 21.5 9.3 84.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 5.2 2.4 0.3 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.2 2.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 5.7 12.9 21.0 26.8 21.5 9.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 9.3    9.3
19-1 100.0% 21.5    21.5
18-2 99.1% 26.6    24.7 1.8
17-3 88.7% 18.6    13.7 4.8 0.1
16-4 58.5% 7.6    3.7 3.4 0.5 0.0
15-5 22.8% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 84.9% 84.9 73.2 10.7 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 9.3% 100.0% 64.9% 35.1% 1.2 7.2 2.0 0.1 100.0%
19-1 21.5% 100.0% 59.1% 40.9% 1.4 13.2 7.6 0.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 26.8% 100.0% 53.7% 46.3% 1.7 11.4 12.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 21.0% 100.0% 48.0% 52.0% 2.1 5.1 9.7 5.2 1.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.9% 100.0% 43.0% 57.0% 2.6 1.1 4.5 5.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.7% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 3.2 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.9% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 3.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.7% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.1% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 51.7% 48.3% 1.9 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.0% 100.0% 1.2 81.7 18.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 100.0% 1.3 71.9 26.8 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 1.3 73.3 25.0 1.7