Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.3#8
Expected Predictive Rating+18.0#17
Pace64.4#310
Improvement-1.3#283

Offense
Total Offense+11.3#6
First Shot+11.2#3
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#169
Layup/Dunks+8.8#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#77
Freethrows+1.8#81
Improvement-0.9#267

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#13
First Shot+9.9#7
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#296
Layups/Dunks+3.8#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#8
Freethrows-2.5#313
Improvement-0.4#225
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 4.5% 1.8%
#1 Seed 17.7% 23.2% 11.0%
Top 2 Seed 37.9% 47.2% 26.4%
Top 4 Seed 70.1% 78.3% 59.9%
Top 6 Seed 88.0% 92.7% 82.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.7% 99.5% 97.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.7% 99.1% 96.2%
Average Seed 3.6 3.1 4.2
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.4% 98.4%
Conference Champion 57.2% 61.8% 51.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 1.2%
First Round98.4% 99.4% 97.1%
Second Round87.4% 90.9% 83.2%
Sweet Sixteen57.6% 62.6% 51.4%
Elite Eight32.6% 37.4% 26.7%
Final Four17.1% 20.4% 13.1%
Championship Game8.4% 9.9% 6.6%
National Champion3.9% 4.9% 2.8%

Next Game: Illinois (Neutral) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 6
Quad 28 - 117 - 7
Quad 35 - 022 - 7
Quad 44 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 345 New Haven W 79-55 99%     1 - 0 +9.5 +6.2 +4.6
  Fri, Nov 7 309 Umass Lowell W 110-47 99%     2 - 0 +52.0 +23.6 +24.3
  Mon, Nov 10 134 Columbia W 89-62 96%     3 - 0 +25.8 +19.3 +7.9
  Sat, Nov 15 7 BYU W 86-84 49%     4 - 0 +21.5 +16.6 +4.8
  Wed, Nov 19 11 Arizona L 67-71 63%     4 - 1 +11.7 +8.9 +2.5
  Sun, Nov 23 302 Bryant W 72-49 99%     5 - 1 +12.2 +1.3 +12.5
  Fri, Nov 28 13 Illinois W 77-76 55%    
  Tue, Dec 2 18 @Kansas L 71-72 49%    
  Fri, Dec 5 308 East Texas A&M W 85-55 99.8%   
  Tue, Dec 9 17 Florida W 77-75 58%    
  Fri, Dec 12 36 Texas W 79-69 82%    
  Tue, Dec 16 47 Butler W 81-69 87%    
  Sun, Dec 21 109 @DePaul W 78-65 87%    
  Wed, Dec 31 85 @Xavier W 78-68 81%    
  Sun, Jan 4 73 Marquette W 82-68 91%    
  Wed, Jan 7 75 @Providence W 85-76 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 109 DePaul W 81-62 95%    
  Tue, Jan 13 76 @Seton Hall W 71-62 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 79 @Georgetown W 77-68 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 41 Villanova W 73-63 82%    
  Tue, Jan 27 75 Providence W 88-73 90%    
  Sat, Jan 31 45 @Creighton W 75-70 67%    
  Tue, Feb 3 85 Xavier W 81-65 92%    
  Fri, Feb 6 15 @St. John's L 77-78 45%    
  Wed, Feb 11 47 @Butler W 78-72 70%    
  Sat, Feb 14 79 Georgetown W 80-65 91%    
  Wed, Feb 18 45 Creighton W 78-67 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 41 @Villanova W 70-66 65%    
  Wed, Feb 25 15 St. John's W 80-75 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 76 Seton Hall W 74-59 90%    
  Sat, Mar 7 73 @Marquette W 79-71 77%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.8 9.6 14.1 14.0 9.7 3.5 57.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.4 7.8 6.1 3.0 0.7 25.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.6 10.1 13.9 15.9 17.1 14.7 9.7 3.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.5    3.5
19-1 100.0% 9.7    9.6 0.2
18-2 95.5% 14.0    12.3 1.7
17-3 82.3% 14.1    11.1 2.9 0.0
16-4 60.2% 9.6    6.0 3.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 34.3% 4.8    2.0 2.2 0.5 0.0
14-6 13.1% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-7 3.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 57.2% 57.2 45.0 10.8 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.5% 100.0% 68.3% 31.7% 1.2 2.8 0.7 0.1 100.0%
19-1 9.7% 100.0% 59.8% 40.2% 1.5 5.6 3.4 0.7 0.1 100.0%
18-2 14.7% 100.0% 54.1% 45.9% 1.9 5.3 5.9 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 17.1% 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 2.5 3.0 6.0 4.9 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.9% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7% 3.3 0.9 2.9 5.4 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.9% 100.0% 36.6% 63.4% 4.2 0.2 1.0 3.1 4.0 3.2 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.1% 99.9% 31.2% 68.7% 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 6.6% 99.3% 23.1% 76.2% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.1%
12-8 3.9% 96.9% 17.5% 79.4% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.2%
11-9 2.4% 90.1% 13.4% 76.7% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 88.6%
10-10 1.2% 81.1% 11.7% 69.3% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 78.6%
9-11 0.6% 44.1% 9.1% 34.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 38.5%
8-12 0.2% 23.0% 1.4% 21.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.9%
7-13 0.1% 15.6% 3.1% 12.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.9%
6-14 0.1% 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.7% 41.5% 57.2% 3.6 17.7 20.1 18.1 14.1 10.3 7.6 4.7 2.8 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.3 97.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 90.3 9.2 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 80.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.7 13.3